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WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW!

INFLATION BREAKEVENS HAVE BEGUN TO SOAR

The US is now running a 6.5% deficit with:

• UNEMPLOYMENT: Near "historical lows" - a previously unheard of event.
• GDP: Having increased by 2.5% and no where near contraction,
• GOVERNMENT SPENDING: Calling for an increase to $7.2T in the 2025 proposed budget.
• INFLATION: Being fought by the Fed with the Fed Funds Rate at 5.25-5.50%
• FINANCIAL CONDITIONS :Being at 'easing' near levels seen before the Fed began raising rates.

We have a War Time Spending plan in Peace Time. Is it any wonder that Inflation Breakevens are rising while the Fed "claims" to be fighting inflation?

RESEARCH

WHAT WE CAN LEARN FROM PRIOR HISTORICAL MARKET SURGES

• The ongoing "Irrational Exuberance" of the equity markets makes it worth further examining past instances of significant similar market rallies, such as those of 1928, 1987, and 1999.
• While recent market gains may be encouraging, it is crucial to remain cautious and consider the broader economic indicators.
• The strength of the job market brings a sense of confidence, but warning signs from declining leading indicators warrant attention.

BIG WEEK FOR CENTRAL BANKS

• Markets reading of central bank meeting is they are settling on June as the month for central bank cuts.
• BOE: As expected, the MPC once again opted to stand pat on rates at 5.25%.
• The ECB seems to be in the most comfortable position – inflation is gradually falling and growth remains in stagnation territory. Markets are pricing in an 87% probability for a cut in June and around 90bp of cuts for the year.

DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH

BOJ - MAJOR MONETARY POLICY CHANGE:

• BoJ changed its monetary policy framework in which it ended negative interest rate policy and abandoned YCC, while it will guide the overnight call rate in the range of 0%-0.1% and apply 0.1% interest to all excess reserves parked at the central bank. 
• BoJ also announced to end ETF and J-REIT purchases, as well as gradually reduce the amount of purchases of commercial paper and corporate bonds whereby it will discontinue purchases of CP and corporate bonds in about one year. 

FOMC - MARCH 2024

• FOMC held rates at 5.25-5.50%, as expected, while the statement was little changed in which it noted that job gains have remained strong (prev. said job gains have moderated since early last year but remain strong).
• Repeated that recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. 
• FOMC maintained the current pace of the balance sheet drawdown and it still sees three cuts this year but the 2025 projection was increased to 3.75-4.00% (prev. 3.50-3.75%) and 2026 was increased to 3.00-3.25% (prev. 2.75-3.00%), while the Neutral Rate estimate was raised to 2.6% (prev. 2.5%).

GLOBAL ECONOMIC REPORTING

• CONTINUOUS JOBLESS CLAIMS
• Continuing Claims saw another downward revision for last week. That is the 20th straight weekly downward revision of continuing claims.
• Jobless claims continue to blow it out of the ballpark... until you realize that it's the most "credible" of states that are behind the blowout numbers: last week, NY, this week CA
• If you doubt the accuracy of the Biden admin's data, here's what the most recent FOMC Minutes said:

"While the recent trends prior to the meeting had been remarkably positive, Fed officials judged that some of the recent improvement “reflected idiosyncratic movements in a few series.”

• Even they aren't buying it, and neither should you!

In this week's expanded "Current Market Perspectives", we focus on Corporate Buybacks and where the US Dollar is likely headed. What might that mean for US Equities in an election year?

=========

WHAT WE CAN LEARN FROM PRIOR HISTORICAL MARKET SURGES

We recently discussed the "Trifecta" market situation in isolating why we are potentially in a "generational" cusp in the markets (see chart right).

The ongoing "Irrational Exuberance" of the equity markets makes it worth further examining past instances of significant similar market rallies, such as those of 1928, 1987, and 1999. Hopefully, we can gain additional valuable insights into the current market environment and its potential implications by exploring the historical context, the impact of the job market, and possible guidance for investors.

The folks at Game of Trades did some interesting digging into the history books that is worth consideration.

Unveiling Historical Market Surges

1928, 1987 & 1999

• In November 1928, the stock market experienced a remarkable 18% surge within a mere four months, preceding the notorious peak of the Dow Jones in 1929 (chart right). 
• Similarly, in July 1987, a rapid 18% rally occurred over four months, propelling the stock market to new highs. However, this surge was followed by the infamous Black Monday crash, resulting in a 40% drop from the peak. 
• In April 1999, the Dow Jones surged 18%, reaching record highs. Unfortunately, this surge was a precursor to a severe three-year bear market.

Over the past four months, the Dow Jones has once again surged by more than 18%, indicating a speculative market trend.

It is important to note that similar market moves were observed in 2019, 2017, 2012, and 2009, which were followed by more upside. These exceptional rallies often mark bear market bottoms.

However, it is crucial to recognize that the current difference is the market being at all-time highs, which adds a unique element of uncertainty.

Assessing the Current Market Strength

The occurrence of an 18% rally in just four months at all-time highs is a rare phenomenon. Historical analysis reveals that such a pattern was observed only in three periods: 1927-1929, 1986-1987, and 1997-1999. 

At first glance, this level of market strength may raise concerns, as it led to significant corrections in all three cases.

However, it is important to note that between the initial reading and the market's peak, there were approximately two years of upside. In 1986-1987, the Dow Jones rallied 40% over 2 years, whereas, in 1997-1999, the market saw an additional 30%. These episodes presented challenges for rational investors due to an expensive yet strong market that sustained its strength for years.

The 5-year return of the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows a 49% gain, which is lower than the returns before 1999, 1987, and 1929. In those cases, the market rose by 195% in the 5 years leading up to the tops. (chart right)

This suggests that the market may have more room to grow before reaching a similar euphoric state.

The Role of the Job Market in Market Dynamics

The strength or weakness of the job market has a significant impact on market trends. In past instances, it was observed that when the job market weakened, the market's strength turned into weakness. Presently, a strong job market is giving investors a sense of confidence that we may not be on the verge of a recession like in 2008 and 2001, where initial jobless claims were rising leading into the downturns. As long as the trend of a robust job market continues, we could see the stock market display bouts of strength, similar to what we have witnessed over the past few months.

Warning Signs: Declining Leading Indicators

While the job market remains strong, investors should exercise because of the signs shown by leading indicators. The leading indicator index from the Conference Board has declined for twenty consecutive months. Historically, a recession has occurred if this index declined for more than eight consecutive months.

Despite the decline in leading indicators, coincident economic indicators show upward movement. This pattern has been observed throughout history, with such divergences eventually resolving as coincident indicators catch down. It is important to monitor both leading and coincident indicators to gain a comprehensive understanding of the overall economic landscape and its potential impact on the market.

Conclusion

While recent market gains may be encouraging, it is crucial to remain cautious and consider the broader economic indicators. The strength of the job market brings a sense of confidence, but warning signs from declining leading indicators warrant attention. As investors, it is important to maintain a balanced and informed investment approach, considering both the historical context and the current market dynamics. 

NOTE: See "Global Economic Indicators below for our concerns with the current Jobless Claims and the reporting by the BEA regarding the strength of the US Jobs Market

BIG WEEK FOR CENTRAL BANKS

The Fed and BoE overall messages didn't change, though offered enough dovish hints for market expectations to converge on June as the kick-off date for the easing cycles. June is still some months away, and potentially hot US PCE data next week could show that there is still a way up for rates near term. Expectations for the ECB should have the best foundations

Markets are settling on June as the month for central bank cuts

This week was one for the doves, with market pricing converging to the idea that June will likely be the month that the ECB, Fed and BoE all make their first rate cut. With regards to the BoE markets took their cue from the two hawkish members of the monetary policy committee having finally dropped their vote for a rate hike, opting instead to join the consensus vote for no change. The Swiss National Bank was supposed to be among those central banks but surprised us on Thursday with an early cut, which did however add to the overall dovish backdrop.

June is still a couple of months away, however, and with US PCE data expected to come in hot next week, cuts are not set in stone everywhere. US yields have been surprised before by inflation numbers and can set the tone for the weeks thereafter. Combine that with a backdrop of high supply and US yields could test higher grounds. For the BoE our economist also still thinks there is a better chance that the first hike could be postponed to August, being wary not to overinterpret the change in the voting split.

The ECB seems to be in the most comfortable position – inflation is gradually falling and growth remains in stagnation territory. The disappointing manufacturing PMIs from Germany and the eurozone on Thursday were a reminder of the economy’s weakness. All the ECB wants to assure is that first quarter wage increases are contained, which will be known by the June meeting date and should not be a hurdle. Markets are pricing in an 87% probability for a cut in June and around 90bp of cuts for the year.

Now that June ECB cuts are anchored, markets will want to hear how many more cuts the ECB has in mind for the rest of this year and next year. On Friday morning the ECB’s Nagel may share his view on the way forward and later in the day we have Holzmann and Lane speaking, which can all influence market views. Having said that, implied volatility from swaptions came down significantly since the beginning of the month, suggesting that markets have started narrowing down on their idea where rates should be going, limiting potential moves on the short end of the curve.

RECAP (See "Developments To Watch" for Coverage of FOMC & BOJ developmemts)

BOE REVIEW: As expected, the MPC once again opted to stand pat on rates at 5.25%. The slight surprise came via the vote split which saw Haskel and Mann move into the unchanged camp, leading to an 8-1 split with Dhingra the lone dissenter in opting for a cut.

• BoE kept rates unchanged at 5.25% in which 8 voted to keep rates unchanged and 1 voted to cut (prev. vote: 2 hike, 6 unchanged, 1 cut). BoE maintained guidance that policy needs to be restrictive for an extended period of time until the risk of inflation becoming embedded above the 2% target dissipates and the Committee will keep under review how long the Bank Rate should be maintained at its current level, while Governor Bailey said they are not yet at the point that they can cut rates, but things are moving in the right direction.
• BoE's Governor Bailey said it is reasonable that markets are pricing in rate cuts this year given the path of inflation and that a technical recession at end-2023 appears to be subsiding. Furthermore, Bailey said he is very hopeful and encouraged by good signs within the economy, while they need to see consistent progress towards hitting the inflation goal before cutting.
• UK PM Sunak is set to guarantee that the pension triple lock will remain in place under a future Conservative government, according to Sky News.

SNB REVIEW: A largely unexpected 25bp rate reduction from the SNB, which sparked marked

CHF depreciation and a modest broader dovish reaction.

NORGES REVIEW: A somewhat hawkish announcement from the Norges Bank. The Key Policy Rate was left unchanged at 4.50%; however, the policy path did not formalize a Q4-2024 rate reduction as some had been expecting given the recent moderation of inflation.

BCB REVIEW: The COPOM voted to cut the Selic rate by 50bps to 10.75%, in line with the consensus. But analysts noted that the central bank tweaked its forward guidance, which might suggest it will lower the rate of reductions in the meetings ahead.

CBRT REVIEW: CBRT surprised with a 500bps rate hike to 50%, although Goldman Sachs state this was a one off and they expect the CBRT to ease policy from Q3.

BANXICO REVIEW: Banxico cut rates as expected by 25bps to 11.00% while noting that future decisions will be based upon data. The decision was not unanimous, with Espinosa opting to keep rates unchanged in a hawkish dissent. It did note that the disinflation process is expected to continue but balance of risks to inflation remains biased to the upside.

MAJOR CENTRAL HAVE NOT BEGUN CUTTING RATES

DEVELOPMENTS TO WATCH

BOJ - MAJOR MONETARY POLICY CHANGE

HIGHLIGHTS:

1. BoJ changed its monetary policy framework in which it ended negative interest rate policy and abandoned YCC, while it will guide the overnight call rate in the range of 0%-0.1% and apply 0.1% interest to all excess reserves parked at the central bank. 
2. BoJ also announced to end ETF and J-REIT purchases, as well as gradually reduce the amount of purchases of commercial paper and corporate bonds whereby it will discontinue purchases of CP and corporate bonds in about one year.
3. However, it stated that it will continue roughly the current amount of JGB buying and it expects to maintain an accommodative monetary environment for the time being. 
4. Furthermore, the BoJ announced its planned bond purchases and stated that in case of a rapid rise in long-term rates, it will make nimble responses with JGB purchases and could increase the amount of JGB purchases or conduct fixed-rate purchase operations of JGBs, while it will provide loans under Fund Provisioning Measure to stimulate bank lending with an interest rate of 0.1% and a 1-year duration.

NOTES:

• The BoJ ended its era of negative interest rates, as had strongly been guided in recent sourced articles.
• It raised rates for the first time since 2007 and will keep guiding overnight rates in the range of 0-0.1%, and apply a 0.1% interest to all excess reserves parked at the BoJ.
• It also abandoned its policy of Yield Curve Control, but said it will continue its current amount of JGB purchases at broadly the same rate.
• The central bank will also end ETF and J-REIT purchases.
• Still, it expects to maintain an accommodative monetary environment for the time being, which analysts said was a signal it does not intend to raise rates again any time soon.
• Capital Economics said that "it seems likely that the BoJ will continue to shrink its JGB holdings, and it will also discontinue its ETF purchases, but that doesn’t mark a major policy change as the Bank has bought very little ETFs over the past year."
• Ahead, CapEco said that the strength of pay hikes in this year’s spring wage negotiations poses some upside risks to its inflation forecasts. "However, we suspect that wage growth among smaller firms won’t be quite as strong as among those firms participating in the Shunto, and with inflation coming off the boil now, it seems likely that trade unions will push for smaller pay hikes in next year’s talks."
• CapEco adds that "with wage growth peaking this year, we still expect inflation to fall below the BoJ’s target by the end of the year so the Bank won’t feel the need to lift its policy rate any further."

A New Era For Bank of Japan Monetary Policy

In a historic—albeit well-anticipated—policy shift, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) formally ended its ultra-easy and nonconventional monetary policy stance at today's monetary policy announcement. The central bank said that its policy framework of Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing (QQE) with Yield Curve Control and the negative interest rate policy to date have fulfilled their roles. Notably, today's announcement included the first policy interest rate increase from the Bank of Japan since 2007. While there were several aspects to the BoJ's announcement, the most significant of those were:

An End to Negative Interest Rate Policy

The BoJ said that guiding the short term interest rate would be a primary policy tool, and that it will “encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0 to 0.1 percent.” In order to achieve that guideline, the BoJ will apply an interest rate of +0.10% to current account balances held by financial institutions at the central bank (excluding required reserve balances), or in other words excess reserves, effective from March 21. Given the large amount of excess reserves, and the fact that not all financial institutions can deposit funds at the BoJ, the overnight call rate should in practice trade slightly below that 0.10% rate.

The new approach represents both a change in the targeted interest rate and a streamlining of the short-term interest rate system that had existed under the negative interest rate policy. That said, we view today's move as effectively similar to a 10 bps rate increase. The BoJ noted that the overnight call rate had traded in a range of -0.10% to 0.00% before today's announcement, whereas going forward it is now expected to trade in a range of 0.00% to 0.10%.

An End to Yield Curve Control

The Bank of Japan also formally ended its Yield Curve Control policy, although that arguably had little effect in practice. The upper bound for 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) Yields had already evolved from a “hard cap” to a “reference point” in terms of the BoJ's bond buying operations, and in any case, current 10-year yields (currently 0.74%) have recently been well below that upper bound.

The Bank of Japan did say it will continue its JGB purchases at broadly the same pace as previously, which it noted is currently around 6 trillion yen per month. It said that in the case of a rapid rise in long-term interest rates it would respond nimbly by, for example, increasing the amount of JGB purchases, conducting fixed rate JGB purchase operations or utilizing other funds supplying operations.

A Cessation To Other Asset Purchases

The Bank of Japan said it will discontinue, with immediate effect, purchases of exchange-traded funds and Japan real estate investment trusts. The BoJ said it will gradually reduce its purchases of commercial paper and corporate bonds, and will discontinue the purchases in about one year.

In terms of market reaction, the yen weakened following the announcement, with the USD/JPY exchange rate trading beyond JPY150. Ten-year Japanese government bond yields were also modestly lower on the day, falling 3 bps to 0.74%.

LATEST UPDATE

BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated that the BoJ's JGB holdings will remain at current levels for the time being and they would like to eventually decrease their JGB buying but will take a wait-and-see stance for the time being. Ueda added that the latest decision is based on the understanding that they will leave it to markets to determine long-term rate moves.

• Japanese RENGO 2nd Tally: 5.25% (vs 5.28% in the first tally). Japan RENGO 1st Wage Tally: 5.28% (exp. 4.1%; 2023 final figure 3.6%).
• Japan Government says BoJ will continue to work closely to conduct flexible policy and lead to an end of deflation.

FOMC - MARCH 2024

Given the renewed signs of higher inflationary pressures in both the US and Europe, the

question naturally arises of whether we could risk facing a scenario of no rate cuts at all

this year.

That risk is real – perhaps especially so in the case of the US – but so far neither the ECB

nor the Fed have sown any doubts that an easing of policy is in the offing.

With a more

balanced economic risk picture, focus appears to be shifting to risk management and thus

addressing the threat that current monetary policy may prove unduly restrictive as the

impact feeds fully through to the economy in the next 1-2 years. Securing a soft landing

requires monetary policy to be eased in a timely manner. And based on the statements of

key central bank members in March, preparation for this process is well under way – even

though global data are on a more positive course than most had probably dared hope.

Our stance is essentially that the ECB is likely to deliver the first in a series of quarterly 25bp

rate cuts at its June meeting. In the US, we expect the same easing profile to begin unfolding

in July.

Fed funds target rate ceiling 1971-2024 (%) and period of time between last rate hike and first rate cut

(Last Hike was July. It has been 8 months!)

HIGHLIGHTS

• ANNOUNCEMENT:
• FOMC held rates at 5.25-5.50%, as expected, while the statement was little changed in which it noted that job gains have remained strong (prev. said job gains have moderated since early last year but remain strong).
• Repeated that recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. 
• FOMC maintained the current pace of the balance sheet drawdown and it still sees three cuts this year but the 2025 projection was increased to 3.75-4.00% (prev. 3.50-3.75%) and 2026 was increased to 3.00-3.25% (prev. 2.75-3.00%), while the Neutral Rate estimate was raised to 2.6% (prev. 2.5%).
• Fed Chair Powell said during the post-meeting statement that:
• The economy has made considerable progress and inflation has eased substantially but inflation is too high and ongoing progress is not assured. 
• Powell reiterated the policy rate is likely at its peak and it will likely be appropriate to dial back rates sometime this year, while he noted they are prepared to keep rates higher for longer if needed and will assess incoming data when setting policy. 
• Powell also stated that the Fed does not expect to reduce rates until it has greater confidence that inflation is sustainably moving back to the target and participants discussed the balance sheet at this meeting with the general sense to slow the pace of the runoff fairly soon.
• Fed Chair Powell said during the Q&A that:
• New projections do not mean a higher tolerance for inflation and inflation data came in a little higher than expected, but the Fed is still making good progress on bringing inflation down. 
• Powell said risks are now two-sided and the first rate cut is therefore consequential, while the Fed wants to be careful and will let the data speak on that. 
• Powell also noted that January/February CPI and PCE data was quite high, but there are reasons to believe there were seasonal factors at play and pointed out that inflation tends to be stronger in the first half of the year. 
• Furthermore, he is unsure if the data was a bump on the inflation road or something more and noted recent inflation data has certainly not improved anyone's confidence.
• Powell has not altered the story that inflation is coming back down to 2% on a sometimes-bumpy path.
• Powell's main message to Congress on 'confidence' was that the FOMC needs to see more evidence that inflation is moving down sustainably to the target and does not anticipate rate cuts without this confidence.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS: What This Week's Key Global Economic Releases Tell Us

JOBLESS CLAIMS

• US Initial Jobless Claims 210k vs. Exp. 215k (Prev. 209k, Rev. 212k)
• US Continued Jobless Claims 1.807M vs. Exp. 1.820M (Prev. 1.811M, Rev. 1.803M)

CHART RIGHT: Continuing Claims saw another downward revision for last week. That is the 20th straight weekly downward revision of continuing claims.

THE REPORT'S NARRATIVE:

• Initial claims data, for the week that coincides with the NFP survey window, eased slightly to 210k from an upwardly revised 212k, beneath expectations of 215k, a level that is seen consistent with a tight labor market.
• The 4wk average however rose to 211.25k from 208.75k.
• Looking at the unadjusted data, the total number of initial claims totaled 190k, 12k lower than the prior week; seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 11k.
• Continued claims, for the week prior, were largely unchanged at 1.807mln, beneath the 1.82mln forecast.
• Many do forecast an increase in claims ahead while the Fed Chair on Wednesday described initial claims as "very, very low", noting if anything, they have tracked down a bit and it is something the Fed is watching carefully.

THE REALITY OF WHAT IS HAPPENING (But Getting Little Coverage in an Election Year)

Jobless claims continue to blow it out of the ballpark... until you realize that it's the most "credible" of states that are behind the blowout numbers: last week, NY, this week CA

As a reminder, if you doubt the accuracy of the Biden admin's data, here's what the most recent FOMC Minutes said:

"While the recent trends prior to the meeting had been remarkably positive, Fed officials judged that some of the recent improvement “reflected idiosyncratic movements in a few series.”

Even they aren't buying it, and neither should you!

GLOBAL MACRO

WHAT DOES YOUR SCAN OF THE DATA BELOW TELL YOU? - THE MEDIA AVOIDS BAD NEWS!

We present the data in a way you can quickly see what is happening.

THIS WEEK WE SAW

Exp=Expectations, Rev=Revision, Prev=Previous

IT IS ALL ABOUT STOCK BUYBACKS!

WORKING AGAINST AN EVER SHRINKING STOCK POOL!?!

Click All Charts to Enlarge

MATASII: "Sustained Corporate Buybacks have been driving stock prices for over a decade and half. Resulting reduced floats and stock pools are resulting in increasing buyback volumes having an inordinate impact of equity market price distortions". Gordon T Long

1 - SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS

NERVOUS BUT STILL BULLISH

Though the Fear-Greed Index has slid slightly from 74 to 72, it is still at the high end of the Greed Scale (chart right top). From a longer term Overbought perspective it is at a major high (chart right bottom).

The combination of PE and VIX continues to signal a bullish outlook though we are clearly over-due for a near term corrective consolidation (chart directly below).

ONLY AN EVENT SHOCK WILL STOP EQUITIES FROM CONTINUING HIGHER IN THE INTERMEDIATE TERM!

FUND MANAGERS SURVEY

Fund Managers continue to overweight equities relative to staying on the sidelines in cash.

MARKET CONFIDENCE BUILT ON EARNINGS GROWTH , FED PIVOT & NO RECESSION

Rising earnings outlooks is assisting in supporting a strong "Risk-On" sentiment (chart right).

Earnings is supported by increasing GDP growth outlooks and improving Leading Earnings Indicators (below left).

Morgan Stanley analysts (below right) are fairly representative of the Sell Side consensus.

CORPORATE STOCK BUYBACKS

As the chart at the top of this "Current Market Perspective" section illustrates, it is Corporate Buybacks that have been playing a dominate role in rising equity prices over the last decade.

It is our view, as a result of a shrinking stock pool, corporate buybacks are having an even more pronounced impact. Increasingly, fewer stocks are available for Corporate Buyback thereby increasing upward pressure on prices.

See our warning video on the "Disappearing Equity & Float Pools".

CHART RIGHT - TOP

Corporations will continue to be the largest source of US equity demand in 2024. A surge in share buybacks and continued growth in cash M&A will be the primary drivers of corporate equity demand.

CHART RIGHT - BOTTOM

Though the available stock pool continues to shrink, the buyback volumes are only increasing!

The Mag-7 stocks have been major buyers of their stocks (notably AAPL).

2 - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

US DOLLAR WEAKNESS IS NORMALLY GOOD FOR STOCKS!

The market is focused on the "Golden Cross" (50 DMA crossing upward through the 2000 DMA) that recent upward movement in the US Dollar has potentially triggered. A rising dollar is typically not good for stocks.

We are not in that camp since all three major moving averages (50,100 & 200 DMA) are all tightly banded. Instead we we are focused on the the fact that the 100 DMA has triggered a Death Cross with it recently crossing the 200 DMA to the downside.

We suspect the Golden Cross will cause some consternation in the equity market before reversing downward. A weak US dollar will add support to equities during this election year.

Better activity data and sticky prices have provided support to US rates and the dollar through the early months of the year. However, the Fed has now told us it is not impressed by strong employment and that it thinks high early-year inflation may be down due to faulty seasonals.

A Fed signaling a commitment to cutting rates typically initiates a Dollar Bear Trend

• Having been held up through the first quarter on better growth and particularly higher inflation numbers, dollar support should soon start to fade.
• At its most recent press conference, Federal Reserve Chair, Jay Powell, made clear that the Fed is minded to cut rates. The Fed expects three cuts in 2024, some analysts expect five starting in June as the decaying employment situation becomes more evident.
• We look for the soft landing narrative to gain traction over coming months and expect a bullish steepening of the US yield curve and rate differentials moving against the dollar to see EUR/USD gently climb above the end-year consensus of 1.10.
• At the same time, we think a little too much is priced in for the European Central Bank cycle this year. We suspect just three cuts starting in June.

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

3 - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

US EQUITY MARKETS

MAGNIFICENT SEVEN -- Surging Again!

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

CONTROL PACKAGE

There are FIVE charts we have outlined in prior chart packages that we will continue to watch closely as a "control set".

1. The S&P 500 (CHART LINK)
2. The DJIA (CHART LINK)
3. The Russell 2000 through the IWM ETF (CHART LINK),
4. The MAGNIFICENT SEVEN (CHART ABOVE WITHOUT THE MATASII CROSS - LINK)
5. Nvidia (NVDA) (CHART LINK)

S&P 500 - Daily - Our Though Experiment

Our Though Experiment, which we continue to update, suggests we have put in a short term top (or very close to it) and will now consolidate before possibly completing one final small impulse higher OR put in a 1-2 Wave of a one higher degree. If the later occurs we could see the S&P north of 5500.

NOTE: To reiterate what I previously wrote - "the black labeled activity shown below, between now and July, looks like a "Killing Field", where the algos take Day Traders, "Dip Buyers", "Gamma Guys" and FOMO's all out on stretchers!" We are presently inclined to wait until late Q3 / early Q4 to potentially SHORT US equities.

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

STOCK MONITOR: What We Spotted

MONDAY

• Stocks rallied on Monday in a relatively quiet news flow session (from a macro perspective) with the Nasdaq leading the charge ahead of the Nvidia (NVDA) GTC event after the close.
• However, both the index and Nvidia closed well off best levels as participants positioned into the event.
• There was additional bullish momentum behind big tech stocks after Bloomberg reported Apple (AAPL) is to integrate Google's (GOOGL) Gemini AI app.
• Tesla (TSLA) and EV names also did well amid Biden's latest environmental endeavor.
• The Russell 2k saw notable weakness, however, while the equal weighted S&P was slightly lower.
• There was no major US data, although we did get a surprise rise in the NAHB housing market index.
• Treasuries continued to tumble with little catalysts ahead of the BoJ and FOMC, and on the former, note a new Nikkei sources article that the BoJ set to end yield curve control, ETF purchases, and end NIRP on Tuesday.
• That Nikkei article saw some fleeting strength in the Yen in an otherwise muted session for FX volatility.
• Even the solid Chinese industrial production and retail sales figures couldn't sustain any strength in the Yuan, nor the antipodeans, albeit it did support oil's continued breakout higher.

INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 5yr BEI -0.2bps at 2.370%, 10yr BEI -0.3bps at 2.326%, 30yr BEI -0.3bps at 2.276%.

REAL RATES: 10Y -- 1.9893%

STOCK SPECIFIC

• Apple (AAPL) +0.9%, Google (GOOG) +4%: AAPL is discussing integrating Google's (GOOGL) Gemini AI engine into the iPhone, according to Bloomberg.
• TSMC (TSM) +0.4%: TSMC is considering establishing advanced packaging capacity in Japan, potentially boosting Japan's semiconductor industry, Reuters reported.
• Cloudflare (NET) +3%: Stephanie Cohen, a senior exec at Goldman Sachs (GS), is leaving GS to join NET.
• Tesla (TSLA) +6%: To raise US prices for Model Y by USD 1,000 on 1st April (see autos section below for more).
• Boeing (BA) -1.5%: Federal prosecutors are investigating the mid-air blowout of a Boeing Co. door plug on an Alaska Airlines flight, using subpoenas and a grand jury in Seattle, Bloomberg reports.
• US Steel (X) flat: Said the acquisition by Nippon Steel is expected to close later this year. Meanwhile, X provided a Q1 guidance update, it sees adj. EBITDA at 425mln (exp. 468mln) and EPS between 0.80-0.84 (exp. 0.89).
• Shift4Payments (FOUR) -6.5%, Fiserv (FI) +1.5%: The FOUR CEO said bids from potential contenders have failed to sufficiently value the co., via Bloomberg. Note, Fiserv (FI) had been one of the bidders for the co.
• Nuvei (NVEI) +32%: Close to a buyout by PE firm Advent.
• Rivian (RIVN) +3.2%: Rivian vehicles are now compatible with the supercharger network.
• Soho House (SHCO) +21%: CC Capital is one of the parties in discussions to takeover Soho House (SHCO), according to Reuters sources.
• IPO's: Reddit's IPO is currently between 4-5x oversubscribed, making it more likely the social media platform will attain the USD 6.5bln valuation it seeks; the company is poised to at least reach its targeted price range of USD 31-34/shr when it prices on Wednesday.
• Autos: The Biden administration is poised to implement the strictest pollution limits for cars and light trucks, aiming to significantly boost electric vehicle sales, Bloomberg reports. Meanwhile, India announced a significant reduction in import duties on specific electric vehicles, targeting manufacturers investing at least USD 500mln in local production within three years, WSJ reports.

TUESDAY

• Stocks were ultimately firmer on Tuesday after earlier, tech-led weakness reversed into the close.
• Nvidia (NVDA) managed to close c. 1% firmer with some positive takeaways from its GTC event despite the lack of major surprises.
• Meanwhile, earlier weakness in tech/indices was catalyzed amid Super Micro (SMCI) announcing a c. USD 2bln share offering which saw shares tumble.
• Nonetheless, the pre-market weakness in the indices gradually pared through the rest of the session.
• In USTs, The front and belly led a rally amid the soft Canadian CPI figures ahead of Wednesday's FOMC, note that the long end lagged despite the solid 20yr auction.
• The lower yield environment gave some support to the rate-sensitive areas such as small caps.
• The DXY was firmer, testing 104, on account of a sell-the-news reaction in the Yen after the BoJ exited NIRP, with USD/JPY hitting four-month highs ahead of 151.
• Aside from the Fed, luxury names are on watch heading into Wednesday with Kering ADRs and the CAC seeing heavy selling on a negative sales update for its Gucci brand, with cited weakness in APAC, raising concerns on the Chinese consumer.

INFLATION BREAKEVENS: 5yr BEI -1bps at 2.361%, 10yr BEI -1.7bps at 2.310%, 30yr BEI -1.3bps at 2.263%.

REAL RATES: 10Y -- 2.0044%

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• Nvidia (NVDA) +1%: NVDA introduces the B200 plus a ton of partnerships with other companies, including, AMZN, DELL, GOOGL, META, MSFT, ORCL, TSLA, and many more. Sell-side commentary all remains very bullish on NVDA but they note there were no big surprises at the event. NVDA opened in the red but ultimately closed green with positive takeaways from the analyst call. Exec said the Blackwell chip will be priced between USD 30-40k (predecessor was USD 30k), and they plan to start shipping the chips later this year. The CEO also noted that the total addressable market for accelerated computing could cost a total USD 250bln per year, and NVDA is to get a larger chunk of that.
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI) -9%: Filed for a stock shelf offering of up to 2mln shares of common stock, raising the total common stock outstanding to 58.55mln. It later delayed the share sale until after the market close.
• Kering (KER FP/PPRUY) -9.5%: The French luxury name warned that Gucci comp revenues in Q1 are expected to be down nearly 20% Y/Y, with weakness in APAC markets, which will see group revenue -10% Y/Y vs Q1 23.
• Apple (AAPL) +1.4%, Meta (META) -0.2%: EU's Vestager, via Reuters, said Apple's new fee structure is the kind of thing she will be investigating, and when she was asked about Meta's new fees, said there are different ways to monetize its services.
• Macy's (M) +1.4%: Macy's reportedly agrees to open its books to Arkhouse and Brigade Capital, according to Reuters.
• Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) -2%: Muddy Waters' Block says the firm is 'more bearish' on Blackstone Mortgage Trust.
• AstraZeneca (AZN) flat/ Fusion (FUSN) +99%: AstraZeneca will acquire Fusion for USD 21/shr (vs prev. close 10.64/shr) in cash, plus a non-transferable CVR of USD 3/shr in a USD 2.4bln deal.
• International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF) -1%: IFF is to sell its pharma solutions business to Roquette in France in a deal valued at USD 2.85bln.
• Ford Motor (F) +1%: NHTSA is investigating a fatal Texas crash involving Ford's assisted-driving technology.
• KLA Corporation (KLAC) -1.4%: Announces the exit from the flat panel display business by the end of this year.
• TSMC (TSM) -1.3% / Intel (INTC) -1.6%: At least five suppliers to TSMC and Intel have delayed construction of facilities in Arizona, according to Nikkei.
• Nordstrom (JWN) +10%: JWN is reportedly working with Morgan Stanley and Centerview partners in an attempt to go private, according to sources via Reuters.
• Gildan Activewear (GIL) +10%: Co.'s board has put it up for sale amid prolonged battle for control of the company, according to Globe and Mail.

WEDNESDAY

• Stocks rallied to new closing highs on Wednesday after the Fed reaffirmed its three rate cuts in 2024 projection, despite higher longer-term dots, and as Powell played down the hot January and February inflation data.
• The rate-sensitive sectors outperformed, with the small-caps Russell 2k leading the SPX and NDX.
• Treasuries bull-steepened after the FOMC and Dot Plot, with the higher longer-run dots weighing more out the curve.
• Fed pricing has seen 2024 total cut pricing ramp up to 80bps from 75bps before the Fed, with the first fully priced cut remaining in July while the implied probability of a June cut has risen to 80% from 70%.
• The Dollar was sold post-Fed, and the Yen pared a lot of the earlier weakness after a Nikkei sources article released at the time warned of more hikes to come, noting the next hike is seen in July or October, according to the BoJ source.
• However, the Yen still closed weaker on the session.
• The Pound was an underperformer earlier in the session on the weak UK CPI figures ahead of Thursday's BoE, but reversed losses after the Fed.
• Oil prices took a tumble, in lack of an obvious catalyst, as benchmarks retreated from their multi-month peaks gradually through the session.

INFLATION BREAKEVENS:  5yr BEI +2.5bps at 2.384%, 10yr BEI +2.5bps at 2.333%, 30yr BEI +2.2bps at 2.285%.

REAL RATES: 10Y -- 1.9339%

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• Huawei: US mulls sanctioning Huawei's chipmaking network by including them in its entity list, according to Bloomberg.
• Intel (INTC) +2.4%: The Biden administration has awarded Intel (INTC) almost USD 20bln in grants and loans to subsidize chip production in the US.
• JPMorgan (JPM) +1.3%: Hikes its dividend to USD 1.15/shr (prev. USD 1.05/shr).
• Amazon (AMZN) +1.3%: Developing a new AI search tool that can create images based on shopper queries and product photos, according to Business Insider.
• Super Micro (SMCI) +1%: Super Micro priced its sale of 2mln shares at USD 875/shr, below an earlier marketed range of USD 900-1,000.68.
• Mobileye (MBLY) +7.5%: Volkswagen's (VOW3 GY) intensified its partnership with MBLY.
• Broadcom (AVGO) +3.5%: Reportedly announced a relationship with a third customer in the consumer AI space.
• Equinix (EQIX) -2.3%: Named a new short at Hindenburg.
• Tesla (TSLA) +2.5%: Raises Model Y prices in China.
• Nasdaq (NDAQ) -2.5%: Borse Dubai to sell shares in Nasdaq worth USD 1.6bln, reducing its stake to 10.8% from 15.5%.
• Boeing (BA) +3.6%%: Boeing is looking into how it can sever Spirit AeroSystems' ties with Airbus to facilitate Boeing's bid to reacquire its former subsidiary, Reuters reported. Separately, the CFO expects FCF usage of USD 4-4.5bln this quarter after the door plug blowout crisis, Co. has also made the decision to keep 737 production below 38/mth.
• Chipotle (CMG) +3.5%: The board has approved a 50 - 1 stock split, shareholders vote on the proposal on June 6th.
• Topgolf Callaway (MODG) +8.8%: Announced it is not aware of any talks of a sale of the business after media speculation earlier.
• Rockwell Automation (ROK) +1.3%: Expects FY results to track around the low end of its current guidance for both sales and EPS.
• TKO (TKO) +7.8%: Reached settlement agreements with all claims asserted in both class action lawsuits (Le and Johnson) for an aggregate amount of USD 335mln, payable by the Co. and its subsidiaries in instalments over an agreed-upon period of time.

EARNINGS:

• General Mills (GIS) +1.2%: Beat on EPS and revenue whilst it reaffirmed guidance.
• PDD Inc. (PDD) +3.5%: Saw huge beats on EPS and revenue although guidance was mixed.
• Signet Jewelers (SIG) -12%: EPS beat but revenue missed while revenue guidance was light of expectations.

THURSDAY

• Stocks were firmer on Thursday albeit the SPX and NDX closed well off best levels with Apple (AAPL) extending losses beyond 4% after the DoJ filed a landmark antitrust lawsuit against it.
• Micron (MU) was a standout outperformer (+14%) after its solid earnings and AI-friendly guidance, lifting the broader semiconductor space.
• The equal-weight S&P 500 and the small-caps Russell 2k held up much better.
• There was a slew of hot US data, including below-forecast jobless claims, a smaller fall than expected in the Philly Fed survey, ebullient existing home sales, and a mixed set of Flash PMIs (solid manufacturing, weaker services) which warned of inflationary pressures in the pipeline.
• Treasuries twisted flatter on the day, with a strong bid out of Europe after the surprise SNB rate cut and mixed PMI data fading through the US session; curve spreads pulled back after the strong steepening post-FOMC.
• The Dollar surged on the day, paring its post-Fed losses, while the Swissy tumbled post-SNB.
• The Pound also saw notable weakness after the BoE left rates unchanged, although the vote split shifted dovishly.
• There was a slew of other rate decisions in focus too with Norges on hold, CBRT hiking, Banxico cutting, and BCB cutting.

INFLATION BREAKEVENS:  5yr BEI +1.9bps at 2.412%, 10yr BEI +1.4bps at 2.359%, 30yr BEI +0.8bps at 2.303%

REAL RATES: 10Y -- 1.9087%

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• Apple (AAPL) -4.2%: DoJ filed an antitrust lawsuit against AAPL for monopolization of the smartphone market.
• Micron (MU) +14%: Posted a surprise profit per share, beat on revenue, above forecast Q3 EPS, revenue and gross margin guidance.
• Chewy (CHWY) -10%: Top and bottom line beat expectations but guidance disappointed.
• Guess (GES) +20%: Earnings beat with strong FY revenue guidance, it also declared a special dividend of USD 2.25/shr.
• Accenture (ACN) -9.5%: Beat on EPS but missed on revenue with weak revenue guidance.
• Darden (DRI) -6%: EPS was in line but revenue missed expectations, SSS also posted a surprise decline and it cut its FY SSS view but announced a new USD 1bln buyback.
• Nvidia (NVDA) +1.3%: Announced that Q1 2025 earnings would be published on May 22nd, 2024. Separately, the CEO told CNBC that Nvidia has created markets that did not exist before, rather than take share from existing markets. Added that the most important thing for a country is to create its own sovereign AI.
• Synopsis (SNPS) +2%: CEO said on Wednesday the co. had narrowed down potential suitors for its security software unit to about half a dozen.
• Reddit (RDDT) +47%: Reddit opened at USD 47/shr vs IPO price of USD 34/shr.
• Paramount (PARA) -5.2%: Controlling shareholder Shari Redstone is reportedly unconvinced by Apollo's (APO) USD 11bln offer and prefers the deal with David Ellison, according to FT. CNBC's Faber later said that PARA is not expected to sell its studio separately,
• Amazon (AMZN) +0.3%: NBC News found more than a dozen companies were marketing devices for online sales that regulators say could severely disrupt communications systems. FCC said it has several ongoing investigations into outlawed products, like jammers, on platforms including Amazon.
• Li Auto (LI) -7%: Cut its Q1 delivery forecasts.
• Capital One Financial (COF) +1.2%: Told bank regulators the Discover (DFS) deal will be pro-competitive and allow it to take on Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA), via Reuters citing sources. Says the deal will not harm credit card competition based on the share of card purchases.
• Rush Street Interactive (RSI) +4.2%, DraftKings (DKNG) +4.1%: Rush Street is reportedly considering a sale and have approached DraftKings (DKNG), according to Bloomberg.

FRIDAY

• Stocks were choppy on Friday with a lack of tier 1 US data to go off, while question marks were raised on the state of the consumer on the back of poor reports from Nike (NKE) and Lululemon (LULU).
• Large cap tech was an outperformer, with Apple (AAPL) paring some of Thursday's big losses post-DoJ lawsuit; Tesla (TSLA) pared its earlier large losses after BBG reports it had trimmed its Chinese output amid slow sales.
• Small caps (Russell 2k), on the other hand, saw large losses that were sustained.
• Treasuries bull-flattened amid dovish ECB momentum (EGBs outperformed, weighing on the Euro) and suspected month-end flows, with geopolitics simmering.
• On the latter, the Russia/Ukraine situation is deteriorating after Russian officials described to domestic press on Friday that the invasion of Ukraine was a "war" for the first time, more pointed than its usual description of it being a "special military operation".
• That was followed by what has been reported as a terrorist attack in Moscow (with 50+ reported dead currently), leading to speculation that the attack could preface a retaliation from Russia for whoever it deems responsible.
• The Dollar saw strong gains, with many central banks seemingly on a path to beating the Fed to the first rate cut.
• Yuan saw notable weakness after a big change in the fix as the currency breached 7.20 to the upside in what is being considered as appetite by Chinese officials to let the currency devalue.

INFLATION BREAKEVENS:  5yr BEI -1.2bps at 2.398%, 10yr BEI -1.2bps at 2.352%, 30yr BEI -1.2bps at 2.296%.

REAL RATES: 10Y -- 1.891%

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• Nike (NKE) -7%: Although shares initially rallied after its earnings report was published, they slipped into the red during the conference call. The quarter was strong although margins disappointed. On the call, execs acknowledged that the apparel maker had lost share in its running shoes category, sending shares into the red and announced it was to cut back on inventories of "classic" shoes to focus on upcoming launches and new product development.
• FedEx (FDX) +7%: Shares surged post-earnings after a strong EPS beat alongside strong margins while it also announced a new USD 5bln buyback program; revenue missed, however. Note, co. exec said that DRIVE was having a real impact, supporting both operating income growth and margin expansion
• Lululemon Athletica (LULU) -16%: Shares tumbled over 11% in after hours trade on soft comps and weak FY guidance.
• Tesla (TSLA) -1%: Is reportedly trimming Chinese output amid slow EV sales, according to Bloomberg.
• Apple (AAPL) +0.5%: The Co. has reportedly held talks with Baidu (BIDU) over AI for its devices; Apple talks with Baidu are still exploratory, according to WSJ.
• Booking Holdings (BKNG) -0.6%: Italy's antitrust regulator is to probe Booking.com (BKNG) for potential abuse of its dominant position.
• Amazon (AMZN) +0.4%: Competitive focus at Amazon (AMZN) has reportedly shifted to Chinese e-commerce players Temu (PDD) and Shein instead of Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT), according to WSJ.
• MorphoSys (MOR) +0.8%: Announced US antitrust clearance of its proposed acquisition by Novartis; MorphoSys continues to expect the sale to close in H1.
• Adobe (ADBE) -2.3%: OpenAI (MSFT) is reportedly meeting with Hollywood (CMCSA, DIS) to pitch an AI video generator, according to Bloomberg.
• Joby (JOBY) -0.7%: Co. targets commercial service in Dubai as soon as late 2025; notes air taxi services likely to start in Dubai before US, according to Bloomberg.

• FedEx Corp (FDX) - Q3 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 3.86 (exp. 3.45), Revenue 21.7bln (exp. 22.06bln); Authorizes a new USD 5bln buyback program. Narrows FY earnings outlook range; sees FY24 adj. EPS of 17.25-18.25 (prev. 17.00-18.50, exp. 17.40). Adj. OM 6.2% (exp. 5.63%). Reduces Capital spending forecast to USD 5.4bln from USD 5.7bln. Still sees a low-single-digit percentage drop in FY revenue. CFO says “DRIVE is having a real impact, supporting both operating income growth and margin expansion,”. Says if a new deal is not reached with USPS, the Co can't adjust FedEx express costs after expiration of contract (September 2024) and profitability could be negatively affected. Says will know in days or weeks if it has a new contact with the US Postal Service which is its biggest customer and with the current contract to expire September 29th. (Newswires) Shares +12.3% pre-market
• Nike (NKE) - Although shares initially rallied after its earnings report was published, they slipped into the red during the conference call, ending the extended trading session down 5.7%. It reported Q3 EPS 0.77 (exp. 0.74), Q3 revenue USD 12.43bln (exp. 12.28bln). On call, execs acknowledged that the apparel maker had lost share in its running shoes category. NKE is prudently planning for revenue in the first half of the FY25 to be down low single digits. Shares -6.6% pre-market
• Tesla (TSLA) reportedly trims Chinese output amid slow EV sales, according to Bloomberg. Shares -3.2% pre-market

BOND MARKET

CONTROL PACKAGE

There are FIVE charts we have outlined in prior chart packages that we will continue to watch closely as a "control set".

1. The 10Y TREASURY NOTE YIELD - TNX - HOURLY (CHART LINK)
2. The 10Y TREASURY NOTE YIELD - TNX - DAILY (CHART LINK)
3. The 10Y TREASURY NOTE YIELD - TNX - WEEKLY (CHART LINK)
4. The 30Y TREASURY BOND YIELD - TNX - WEEKLY (CHART LINK)
5. REAL RATES (CHART LINK)

FISHER'S EQUATION = 10Y Yield =10Y INFLATION BE% +REAL % = 2.35% + 1.89% = 4.24%

As rate-cut expectations fell from 6 this year to 3, Treasury yields rose... non-stop... all week with the belly of the curve underperforming (5Y yields up 28bps on the week). Yields all ended back up, below but near their year-to-date highs.

Wholesale Gasoline prices are rising and will soon be seen at the pumps. Service Inflation is sticky with upward pressure as are food prices. With Inflation Break-Evens rising and Y-o-Y inflation comparisons becoming harder we see potentially slightly higher bond yields before Year-End,

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

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2020 VIDEOS OUTLINING THE COMING RISE IN INFLATION, STAGLFLATION & COMMODITY PRICES

THE REGULATORY STATE

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