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In This Issue:
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Market Update: Trade War Potential Impact Unclear as Farmers Begin Spring Planting
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Washington, D.C. Update
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USRPA Participates in U.S. - Guatemala Agribusiness Trade Mission
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Missouri Rice Annual Meeting Next Thursday
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RMTC 2025: Exhibitor Highlight
- Picture from Rice Country
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Trade War Potential Impact Unclear as Farmers Begin Spring Planting | |
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Tariffs, retaliatory tariffs, and trade wars are the words of the day. While these tariffs aren’t coming out of the blue and have been telegraphed from President Trump for months, we are now faced with dealing with the reality of their arrival. The U.S. rice industry is certainly concerned about the impact of the 25% retaliatory tariff that Canada is placing on U.S. goods, of which brown and milled rice is included. In 2024, Canada imported 205,533 metric tons of U.S. rice, and maintaining that market at a minimum is critical to the U.S. industry for the coming year. Mexico hasn’t announced its plan for retaliatory tariffs as of this writing, but, likely, our largest rice importer is already in talks with other South American countries like Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Argentina to secure supplies.
What we know is that long grain is at its lowest price in the last 30 months, and this additional pressure will not aid in resurrecting any price resurgence. The Iraq business is helpful and the domestic industry is critical, but the retaliatory tariffs certainly aren’t helpful. Recall that in 2018/19 when the EU and Turkey placed retaliatory tariffs on the U.S., the Economic Research Service estimated that the U.S. rice industry lost an annualized $46 million. This number could pale in comparison to losses from Mexico and Canada. One final note on the geopolitical front is that the bill to hold India accountable for its global price manipulation is being brought back to life with fervor. This won’t provide any relief in the short term but could rebalance the playing field in the coming years. We remind readers that duty-free imported rice now represents one-third of U.S. domestic consumption.
At the paddy level on the ground, activity is scarce, to say the least. It’s clear that while the mills are busy, they aren’t slammed and searching for paddy to fill orders. Current customers are staying customers, but finding new ones is exceedingly difficult in the current climate. Prices are reflecting the lack of interest, with Texas dropping from $14.70/cwt down to $14.65/cwt. Louisiana saw a drop from $14.50-$14.80 down to $13, while Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri all fell from $13/cwt down to $12.75/cwt. This is not good news in the face of coming retaliatory tariffs. The hope is that the Administration may implement a mechanism to restrict imports, thereby increasing domestic consumption and demand. This issue was raised by the USRPA board member farmers while in Washington DC last month meeting with Congressional representatives and the US Trade Representative Office. We shall see.
In Asia, price pressure is constant, and now Vietnam, Thailand, and India are trying to work together to help “create balance” in the dropping global rice prices. It is unclear if these are diplomatic talks at G2G levels, private talks at the import/export level, or a combination of both. However, all three governments must acknowledge the problem and work to stabilize the precipitous drop. Thai prices continued to drop this week, now reported at $415pmt, Vietnam at $395pmt, and India at $420pmt.
Weekly USDA Export Sales report shows net sales of 57,500 MT this week, down 69% from the previous week and 28% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 34,100 MT were down 59% from the previous week and 57% from the prior 4-week average.
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The U.S. Imposes New 25% Tariffs on Mexico and Canada – Agriculture Products Exempted:
On Tuesday, President Trump imposed new 25% tariffs on all goods being imported from Mexico and Canada. This action comes after the Administration’s original announcement back in early February to levy the same taxes on Mexican and Canadian goods. Canada first responded by pledging to levy counter-tariffs on $30 billion in goods imported from the U.S. while Mexico said they would also launch retaliatory efforts but never released any specific details or a list of goods that would be subject to their retaliatory tariffs. Before the tariffs ever went into place in February, separate interim agreements were reached between the United States and Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to pause any tariffs for one month. Since Tuesday, it’s been a fast-moving environment with both President Trump and the involved trading partners making back-and-forth announcements. At the time of this reading, this is where the current events stand between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada:
- The United States imposed 25% tariffs on goods that do not satisfy U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) rules of origin.
- A lower 10% tariff has been imposed by the U.S. on those energy products imported from Canada that fall outside the USMCA preference.
- A lower 10% tariff on any potash imported from Canada and Mexico that falls outside the USMCA preference.
- No tariffs on those goods from Canada and Mexico that claim and qualify for USMCA preference.
These parameters are temporary and only in place until April 2nd, which is coincidentally the same day that President Trump announced that he will impose “reciprocal” tariffs on U.S. imports, matching the tariffs imposed on U.S. exports by destination markets. In the meantime, USRPA urges the Mexican government to exclude from any retaliatory tariffs rice and other U.S. agricultural products that are traded in compliance with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
It is worth emphasizing that these and other ongoing developments related to these tariffs, as well as any other tariffs proposed by the President, are fluid and subject to change.
Rollins announces next steps for economic disaster relief:
On Monday, U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Secretary Brooke Rollins, while speaking at Commodity Classic, announced the Department’s plan to distribute the economic and disaster assistance that was passed by Congress in December’s continuing resolution. She commented that the program to roll out the $10 billion in appropriated economic assistance will be referred to as the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (E-CAP) and further affirmed that USDA is on track to begin what they expect to be an expedited application process on or before March 20. Regarding agriculture disaster relief appropriated funds, Secretary Rollins said the Department is still working towards rapid implementation of the $20 billion in disaster assistance and wants to avoid any delayed disbursements to producers in need. Any necessary application process and the later disbursement of disaster assistance to producers is not expected until late spring or into the summer months.
USRPA endorses the nomination of USDA Deputy Secretary-designate Stephen Vaden:
On Tuesday, USRPA was joined by a broad cross-section of agriculture producers and industry organizations as signatories of a letter to the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry in support of the nomination of Judge Stephen Vaden to serve as Deputy Secretary of Agriculture. More than a hundred different organizations endorsed the letter to Senate Agriculture Chairman John Boozman (R-AR) and Ranking Member Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) to showcase the broad support of the agriculture community behind Vaden ahead of his nomination hearing. While a date for Judge Vaden’s nomination hearing has yet to be set, one is expected to be put on the calendar within the coming weeks. You can find a copy of the letter here.
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USRPA Participates in U.S. - Guatemala Agribusiness Trade Mission | |
U.S. - Guatemala Agribusiness Trade Mission Participants and USDA-FAS staff. | |
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This week's U.S. agricultural trade mission to Guatemala successfully facilitated direct business-to-business meetings between U.S. exporters and buyers from Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. Participants engaged in productive discussions, exploring new trade opportunities in the region. Market briefings, site visits, and networking events, led by Foreign Agricultural Service staff and regional experts, provided valuable insights into market trends and trade dynamics.
With Guatemala maintaining its position as the top regional importer of U.S. agricultural products ($1.7 billion in 2023), and Honduras and El Salvador following closely, the event reinforced the strong trade relationships in Central America. The upcoming full phase-out of tariffs under the Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement by 2025 is expected to further enhance the competitiveness of U.S. products. The region's robust logistics, distribution, processing, and cold chain capabilities continue to support growing trade partnerships.
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As part of the trade mission activities, USRPA was able to showcase one of their promotional programs that is conducted in Guatemala together with the Guatemalan Rice Association (ARROZGUA) bringing trade mission participants and USDA-FAS staff to one of the schools in Guatemala to learn about the school nutrition program in public schools, where students' mothers are taught how to use and cook U.S. rice for school lunches.
"Thank you USDA Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) and Mark Slupek for taking the time to visit this school in Guatemala as part of the U.S. Guatemala Agribusiness Trade Mission. USRPA is proud to have partnered with ARROZGUA since 2004 to create a program that not only feeds the children but also educates mothers on incorporating U.S. rice into their daily meals healthily and conveniently", Iris Figueroa, USRPA Western Hemisphere Marketing Manager.
| Left to right: José Antonio Pivaral, President ARROZGUA; Marcela Rondon, Regional Agricultural Counselor, FAS - Guatemala; Iris Figueroa, USRPA Western Hemisphere Marketing Manager; Mark Slupek, Acting Associate Administrator, FAS, and Roberto Wong, Executive Director ARROZGUA. | |
Missouri Rice Annual Meeting Next Friday | |
RMTC 2025: Exhibitor Spotlight | |
Picture from Rice Country | |
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Avant and Presidio seeds are still available at Franz Seed. Click here for more information.
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Food & Agriculture
Regulatory & Policy Roundup
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FAO Rice Price Update
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May 28 - 30, 2025
Rice Market & Technology Convention
Miami, Florida
More Information
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USRPA does not discriminate in its programs on the basis of race, color, national origin, gender identity, sexual orientation, religion, age, disability, political beliefs, or marital/family status. Persons who require alternative means for communication of information (such as Braille, large print, sign language interpreter or translation) should contact USRPA at 713-974-7423. |
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