Issue 146, Mar 2025

Roundup of major energy and electricity news and developments: 17 February to 2 March 2025

1. Eskom’s load shedding crisis: Confusion, contradictions and uncertainty.

2. South Africa’s renewable energy boom: Record private power projects surge past R200bn.

3. Cape Town secures R2.9bn boost for green energy and grid expansion.

4. South Africa walks a tightrope in G20 energy talks as JET funding faces uncertainty.

5. Sasol adjusts emissions strategy while boosting Secunda output.

6. Renewable energy projects in South Africa: The only new power game in town right now.

7. Eskom’s R109bn municipal debt crisis: SCOPA, Government push for solutions.

To see an archive of all energy and electricity sector roundups to date, please visit www.eebi.co.za/news

To reach 20 000+ energy professionals in the region, please visit: www.eebi.co.za/newsletter-advertising

1. Eskom’s load shedding crisis: Confusion, contradictions and uncertainty.

South Africa’s ongoing energy crisis has once again taken centre stage as conflicting reports and political assurances leave citizens questioning the true state of Eskom’s generation capacity. Despite claims from Energy & Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa that the worst may soon be over, the recent escalation to Stage 6 load shedding has raised fresh doubts. In Parliament, officials admitted that Eskom needs two key developments before South Africa can be assured that load shedding is a thing of the past: a reliable maintenance program and a stable power supply. However, concerns over whether Eskom has misled the public about the risk of intensified power cuts persist. Data suggests that Eskom’s public communication downplayed the severity of the crisis before the recent surge in outages. In addition, Minister Ramokgopa has rubbished claims emanating from certain quarters within Eskom that rain and cloudy weather with reduced renewable energy generation were responsible for the recent high levels of load shedding, arguing that deeper structural issues within Eskom remain the primary cause. Eskom has since reduced load shedding to Stage 4 and Stage 2, before ending the latest round of rotating blackouts. However, questions over the causes of the loss of 3600 MW from Majuba power station, 800 MW from Medupi power station and 800 MW from Camden power station, causing the sudden escalation to Stage 6 without prior warning, remain unanswered by Eskom Generation. Doubt also surrounds Eskom’s ability to sustain improvements, with critics questioning whether the minister’s optimism is warranted. With the winter months approaching, some energy analysts warn that further disruptions could be imminent unless Eskom delivers tangible, lasting solutions. Until then, South Africans remain somewhat in the dark about when the country’s power crisis will truly end.

2. SA’s renewable energy boom: Record private power projects surge past R200bn.

South Africa’s power generation landscape is undergoing a significant shift as private-sector investments in new renewable energy projects reach new highs. The National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) has registered a record number of new private power generation projects, with investments now surpassing R200bn. This marks a significant acceleration in the country’s energy transition, reducing dependence on Eskom’s strained power system. A total of 142 solar photovoltaic (PV) projects, with a combined capacity of 1100 MW, have been registered in the latest round of approvals. This surge in registrations aligns with the government’s easing of regulations, allowing privately procured embedded projects of any size to operate without the need for a generation licence. Since these reforms, businesses and independent power producers (IPPs) have capitalised on the opportunity to generate their own electricity, alleviating pressure on the national electricity utility, Eskom. Private investments in renewable energy projects have been steadily climbing, with the total registered private generation capacity now exceeding 9076 MW. This is a significant increase from previous years, and signals a pivot towards cleaner, more sustainable energy sources. With Eskom price increases showing no signs of slowing, the momentum behind South Africa’s energy transition is stronger than ever. As load-shedding concerns persist, the rapid expansion of independent power generation offers a much-needed boost to energy security and economic growth.

3. Cape Town secures R2.9bn boost for green energy and grid expansion.

Cape Town has taken a significant step forward in its energy transition with a R2.9bn concessional loan from Germany’s KfW Development Bank. The funding, secured under South Africa’s Just Energy Transition framework, aims to strengthen and expand the city’s electricity grid while accelerating the shift towards renewable energy. The loan will support Cape Town’s efforts to reduce reliance on Eskom and mitigate the impact of load shedding through independent power generation and improved grid infrastructure. A major portion of the funding will go towards expanding transmission networks and integrating renewable energy projects, allowing more businesses and households to tap into cleaner power sources. As part of its broader strategy, the city has also ramped up its rooftop solar incentive program, recently paying out R50m to residents and businesses for excess solar power fed into the grid. This initiative, which forms a key component of Cape Town’s energy resilience plan, encourages more property owners to invest in solar, easing pressure on the grid while reducing dependence on Eskom’s supply. Mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis hailed these efforts as critical milestones in Cape Town’s transition, emphasising their potential to enhance energy security while driving economic growth. The concessional nature of the loan, which comes with favourable terms, will allow the city to invest in long-term solutions without placing excessive financial strain on ratepayers. As the first major metro to secure such funding and implement large-scale solar incentives, Cape Town’s move could serve as a blueprint for other municipalities looking to break free from Eskom’s grid constraints and embrace a cleaner, more decentralised energy future.

4. South Africa walks a tightrope in G20 energy talks as JET funding faces uncertainty.

At a media briefing on 25 February 2025, Energy & Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa outlined the structure of the G20 Energy Transition Work Group during South Africa’s leadership term in 2025. The Minister indicated three focus areas this year namely: energy security and affordable, reliable access; just, affordable and inclusive energy transitions; and African interconnectivity and energy pool. Minister Ramokgopa is treading carefully in the upcoming G20 energy meetings, as global divisions over the Just Energy Transition (JET) remain a major sticking point. With the USA reportedly reconsidering its financial commitments to South Africa’s JET Investment Plan, Minister Ramokgopa faces the challenge of keeping negotiations on track while securing critical funding for the country’s energy transition. The G20 Energy Working Group is set to meet amid growing concerns that political and economic disagreements among major economies could stall efforts to accelerate the shift to cleaner energy. South Africa, which has been a key beneficiary of international JET funding, now finds itself in a precarious position as donor nations reassess their commitments. Ramokgopa has signaled a strategic approach, opting for diplomatic silence on controversial issues to prevent further disruptions. However, tensions persist, particularly as some G20 members push for a faster phase-out of coal, while others, including South Africa, argue for a more gradual transition that safeguards jobs and economic stability. With the USA potentially pulling back on its pledged financial support, South Africa’s ability to implement key projects could be at risk. The outcome of these G20 talks will be crucial in determining whether the country can maintain momentum in its energy transition or if it will face setbacks in securing the investment needed to move away from coal while ensuring energy security.

5. Sasol adjusts emissions strategy while boosting Secunda output.

Sasol has revised its emissions reduction strategy, by cutting capital expenditure while reaffirming its commitment to long-term sustainability goals. The company has opted for a more phased approach, delaying some decarbonisation investments as it grapples with financial constraints and operational priorities. The shift comes as Sasol focuses on stabilising output at its flagship Secunda plant, a critical supplier of fuel and chemicals in South Africa. A key part of this strategy involves repurposing the Twistdraai destoning plant to recover higher-quality coal, improving operational efficiency and ensuring more reliable coal feedstock for Secunda’s production processes. This move is expected to enhance output without increasing emissions significantly, a balancing act that the company says aligns with its evolving approach to energy transition. Meanwhile, Sasol’s Natref refinery in Sasolburg resumed production following a recent fire that temporarily halted operations for several weeks. The disruption raised concerns over security of fuel supply, but with operations back online, the impact on the market is expected to be contained. While Sasol maintains that it remains committed to reducing emissions in the long term, the revised plan reflects the company’s need to manage costs amid challenging economic conditions. Analysts suggest that the delay in emissions-related investments could attract scrutiny from environmental groups and investors pushing for stronger climate action. With production now stabilised and a “recalibrated” strategy in place, Sasol aims to balance financial sustainability with its transition towards a lower-carbon future. However, the trade-offs in timing and investment could shape the company’s standing in South Africa’s energy landscape for years to come.

6. Renewable energy projects in SA: The only new power game in town right now.

Several high-profile projects have been announced or reached financial close in the last two weeks. These initiatives diversify the country from its current overdependence on fossil fuels, bolster energy security, and drive economic investment in the clean energy sector. The Ishwati Emoyeni Wind Farm, a 140 MW project developed by African Clean Energy Developments (ACED), Energy Infrastructure Management Services (EIMS) Africa and NOA Group, has secured an industry-first R4.9bn financing package led by Standard Bank. The project pioneers an aggregator wind power model, allowing multiple private off-takers to access clean energy, a significant breakthrough for independent power producers (IPPs). Construction is already underway, with completion expected in 2026. Another major wind initiative, the Kareebosch Wind Farm, will also contribute 140 MW to the grid. Developed by G7 Renewable Energies and Cennergi, the project is backed by a 20-year power purchase agreement (PPA) with Northam Platinum, supporting the decarbonisation of the mining industry. The Suncentral Solar Project, a 114 MW initiative by SolarAfrica, Investec and RMB, has secured R1.8bn in financing. The project forms part of an electricity wheeling strategy that allows power to be transmitted across the grid to commercial users, reducing their reliance on Eskom. Additionally, the deployment of battery energy storage (BES) systems is expected to add at least 1250 MW capacity with 5000 MWh storage to the grid through utility-scale batteries over the next two years. BES is deployed to enhance grid stability, maximise the penetration of renewable energy, unlock constrained grid capacity, and ensure energy availability during peak demand periods. These investments mark a significant shift towards a cleaner, more resilient energy landscape, positioning renewables as a significant source of low-cost, clean energy in South Africa’s power sector.

7. Eskom’s R109bn municipal debt crisis: SCOPA, Government push for solutions.

Eskom is intensifying efforts to recover billions in unpaid municipal electricity bills, with Parliament’s Standing Committee on Public Accounts (SCOPA) backing the power utility’s proposal to slash municipal debt while enforcing stricter payment measures. The embattled power supplier is grappling with an alarming R109bn municipal arear debt, a crisis that has significantly undermined its financial stability. SCOPA’s support for Eskom’s debt relief plan signals a shift toward accountability, ensuring municipalities meet their payment obligations while keeping electricity supply sustainable. At the heart of the plan is a new model that aims to restructure municipal arrear debt while preventing further accumulation. This approach includes enforcing prepayment systems and direct deductions from equitable share allocations – a move that could see funds redirected straight from National Treasury to Eskom. Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (CoGTA) Minister Velenkosini Hlabisa has also weighed in, warning municipalities that non-payment will no longer be tolerated. Government is reviewing funding models to ensure that municipalities prioritise service payments instead of mismanaging and misappropriating funds meant for essential services like electricity. The pressure is mounting on defaulting municipalities, many of which have long relied on government bailouts while failing to enforce revenue collection. As Eskom moves aggressively to recoup its losses, the power utility and government are sending a clear message: pay up or face serious consequences. With SCOPA and CoGTA pushing for stronger financial discipline, it is hoped that the era of unchecked municipal debt could be coming to an end. However, whether struggling municipalities can afford to pay remains the looming question.

Independent Energy Pool (IEP Global)

Independent Energy Pool (IEP Global) is a business-to-business energy pool, allowing energy users and energy traders to buy and sell electricity. IEP's ecosystem allows transacting of electricity in a balanced and standardised environment. The pool incorporates the ability to trade renewable energy certificates, as well as the tracking and reporting of ESG criteria.

EE Business Intelligence

EE Business Intelligence strives to be a positive formative influence on policy, economic, social, regulatory, standardisation, training and business development in the energy, electricity sectors of Africa. Its activities and services include thought leadership, analysis, research, consulting, special assignments, business intelligence, strategic event facilitation and management, and public, corporate and media speaking engagements and commentary.