Quotes of the Day:

"Just as the right to speak and the right to refrain from speaking are complementary components of a broader concept of individual freedom of mind, so also the individual's freedom to choose his own creed is the counterpart of his right to refrain from accepting the creed established by the majority." 

– John Paul Stevens

"We don't accomplish anything in this world alone, and whatever happens is the result of the whole tapestry of one's life and all the weavings of individual threads from one to another that creates something." 

– Sandra Day O'Connor

"Times are bad. Children no longer obey their parents, and everyone is writing a book." 

– Cicero

1. North Korean Special Forces in Russia’s War on Ukraine: A Game-Changer?

2. Thinking the unthinkable: the collapse of the South Korea-U.S. alliance

3. Opinion North Korean troops fighting Ukraine marks a dangerous new escalation

4. Harris, in Demarche in South Korean Press, Aims To Put Trump on the Spot Over His ‘Love’ of North Korea’s Kim Jong-un

5. Ahead of election, America's N. Korea policy direction comes into focus

6. How Donald Trump winning would impact China, Russia, Iran and North Korea

7. Russian tanks left North Korean soldiers behind, unable to keep up with the situation

8. Yoon calls for thorough countermeasures against 'illegal' N. Korea-Russia military cooperation

9. S. Korea, U.N. host joint disarmament conference for foreign diplomats

10. N. Korea presumed to change name of think tank dealing with affairs with S. Korea

11. S. Korea, U.S. sign defense cost-sharing deal ahead of U.S. elections

12. 1st N. Korean troops come under Ukrainian attack in Kursk: Ukraine official

13. Yoon says N. Korea's troop deployment to Russia 'dangerous and unprecedented'

14. S. Korean delegation to Ukraine to return home as early as Monday

15. An Indonesian Tribe’s Language Gets an Alphabet: Korea’s

16. Two-thirds of Koreans oppose sending weapons to Ukraine, poll suggests

17. Experts discuss how to financially prepare for unified Korea

18. N. Korea raises earthen mounds to block severed inter-Korean roads: S. Korean military

19. North Korean white paper says South Korea's president has raised risk of nuclear war

20. Coffee with a view of… North Korea? Starbucks eyes border observatory opening.

1.  North Korean Special Forces in Russia’s War on Ukraine: A Game-Changer?

Excellent analysis from Dr. Bruce Bechtol who is one of the most qualified experts on the north Korean military.

North Korean Special Forces in Russia’s War on Ukraine: A Game-Changer?​

North Korea’s decision to send 12,000 elite light infantry troops to support Russia in Ukraine signals deepening military ties, though it’s unclear if this will be a game-changer on the battlefield.

The National Interest · by Bruce E. Bechtol · November 3, 2024

North Korean Combat Troops in Russia: A Significant Contribution?: It has now been confirmed by a plethora of sources that North Korean combat troops are going to be fighting in the war Russia is waging against Ukraine. The nature of the mission these troops will carry out and the effects that it will have, not only on the war but on North Korea-Russia relations is incredibly important.

Thus it is important to know several things: when did this start what are the troop numbers, who are these troops who will fight for Russia, will this have a major impact on the war, and perhaps just as importantly, what does North Korea get out of this?

North Korea has of course been supplying Russia artillery shells, ballistic missiles, and small arms for nearly two years now. The numbers are staggering and this has become a key aspect of the support to combat operations that the Russians need. But back in 2022 when all of this started, the North Koreans reportedly offered up 100,000 troops to support the fight. While that offer may or may not have been an exaggeration, Kim Jong-un has now decided to send at least this first contingent of troops to engage in the fight in Ukraine.

According to the South Korean press quoting the NIS (South Korea’s equivalent of the CIA), the first contingent of troops is around 12,000 men. This consists of four brigades, about 3,200 men each, that are subordinate to North Korea’s 11th Corps, which some experienced analysts may remember as the “Light Infantry Training Guidance Bureau.” The 11th Corps reportedly has ten independent brigades attached to it and there are also light infantry brigades attached to every geographical and functional corps in North Korea. North Korea’s light infantry troops are among the best trained, best fed, and most motivated of the country’s troops.

At least part of the initial contingent of men, 1,500 troops, left three North Korean ports on four transports and three frigates bound for Russia between 8 and 13 of October. Reportedly the troops will fight in Kursk and other areas of the war soon after they arrive in Russia.

The mission’s light infantry brigades are trained to include but are not limited to, infiltrating past the forward edge of the battlefield, infiltrating and disrupting or destroying sensitive facilities (especially airfields and POL), infiltrating enemy defensive positions to conduct enveloping, or flanking attacks in support of regular ground forces, seizure of major lines of communications, infiltrating enemy defenses to seize and control important terrain features and civilian facilities (such as dams, power plants, and other critical infrastructure), to act as reconnaissance assets to support corps and divisions, and to act as a rear guard and delaying force, during withdrawal operations, to harass the enemy by destroying bridges, tunnels, power grids, etc.

The question many have asked is will this deployment of North Korean troops to the war in Ukraine be a game changer? Certainly, in a symbolic sense, it already is.

Sending a nation’s best troops to engage in combat with an ally is a move that shows solidarity in both rhetoric and action. As for actually making a change in the war, two former U.S. government officials stated in remarks to Radio Free Asia that this would not be a game changer given the troop's numbers and size of weapons.

True enough. However, I believe it is likely the North Koreans will send more troops, thus the real answer appears to be more nuanced. It could be a game changer if significantly more troops are sent to fight in the war. Whether or not that will happen remains unknown.

It will also depend on how the North Korean troops are deployed under Russian command. The initial contingent reportedly had 500 officers and included three generals, among the 12,000 men, thus the possibility exists that these troops will retain their unit integrity, operating as battalions or even brigades attached to and supported by Russian command.

Light infantry units have participated in combined arms exercises in North Korea, but how they would do so, if they do so in the war in Ukraine remains an unanswered question. In other words, making the call about whether or not this will be a game-changer is nothing short of reckless. The possibility exists that it will, certainly, but it could also end up being simply a token of one ally supporting another. When it comes to actions that could be considered a “game changer,” North Korea has already reportedly accounted for fully half of the ammunition used by Russia in combat actions against Ukraine over the past year.

How Is That Not a Game-Changer?

It is quite obvious what Russia will get out of this deployment of troops. If the Russians choose to use these troops the way they have been trained, Moscow now will have more jump-qualified special forces troops to augment its elite forces. But Russia’s special forces have had real challenges in this war. And if the goal is to beef up the strength of these capabilities in a way that will have a strong impact, significantly more North Korean troops would need to deploy to the war. On the other hand, the Russians may choose not to use these troops as special forces at all and that would likely mean high casualties for the North Koreans.

What Do the North Koreans Get Out of This?

For Kim Jong-un, the longer this war goes on the better off North Korea is. North Korea has survived for many years in no small part due to its military proliferation in the Middle East and Africa. But North Korea has never proliferated conventional weapons and missiles in such large numbers in such a short time as they have for the war in Ukraine. That brings in money, oil, foodstuffs, and technical/weapons systems updates and support for North Korea’s very large but largely antiquated military.

One must realize, to the Kim family regime, that special operations forces are just like artillery systems or ballistic missiles, a weapons system that can be proliferated for profit to benefit the regime. According to press reports, Russia is paying $2,000 a month to each North Korean soldier. But this is paid to the North Korean government, not the soldiers. Thus, the more troops North Korea sends to fight the war in Ukraine, the more money it makes for the regime. Pyongyang has never had a better deal.

About the Author:

Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr. is an award-winning professor of political science at Angelo State University and a retired Marine. He was an intelligence officer at the Defense Intelligence Agency from 1997 until 2003, eventually serving as the senior analyst for Northeast Asia in the Intelligence Directorate (J2) on the Joint Staff in the Pentagon. He is the current president of the International Council on Korean Studies and serves on the board of directors of the Council on U.S.-Korean Security Studies. He is the author of the recent book North Korean Military Proliferation to the Middle East and Africa: Enabling Violence and Instability (University Press of Kentucky: 2018), North Korea and Regional Security in the Kim Jong-un Era: A New International Security Dilemma (Palgrave Macmillan: 2014), The Last Days of Kim Jong-Il: The North Korean Threat in a Changing Era (University of Nebraska Press: 2013), Defiant Failed State: The North Korean Threat to International Security (Potomac Books: 2010), and Red Rogue: The Persistent Challenge of North Korea (Potomac Books: 2007).

Image Credit: Creative Commons and/or Shutterstock.

The National Interest · by Bruce E. Bechtol · November 3, 2024

2. Thinking the unthinkable: the collapse of the South Korea-U.S. alliance

I do not care for a lot of Professor Robertson's analysis but this provocative essay reminds us that we cannot take the alliance for granted and that there are scenarios that could damage it. That said, as he notes, we have weathered a lot of atoms in the alliance over the years.

Commentary

Thinking the unthinkable: the collapse of the South Korea-U.S. alliance

Every U.S. official and every U.S. politician says the alliance is ironclad. Strangely, you often hear differently in Seoul.

https://www.junotane.com/p/thinking-the-unthinkable-the-collapse-of-the-korea-us-alliance?r=7i07&utm

Nov 03, 2024

Could the Korea - U.S. alliance end? It seems impossible. Every U.S. official and every U.S. politician says it’s impossible. Strangely, you hear differently here in Seoul. In fact, very differently. 

Some say it’s all about Trump. If Trump is elected, the alliance will find itself on precarious ground. South Korea is low-hanging fruit - it’s an easier target than NATO and it’s a soft pick for economic leverage. Others say it has nothing to do with Trump. Even if Harris wins, there’s going to be difficult times ahead. Many in Washington confuse South Korea’s opposition to China’s dominance as pro-American. It’s not. It’s pro-Korean. Korea, they argue, is developing into a state that can steer its own future - the ultimate aim of both conservatives and progressives. Korea’s future in Korea’s hands. Is this how the Korea - U.S. alliance ends? 

Let’s look at three factors that could occur (and ensure this is published before Tuesday): (1) a Trump Administration reluctance to uphold defense commitments; (2) the development of South Korean nuclear autonomy; and (3) the election of a popular nationalist South Korean leader.

Reluctant America

One of Trump’s more consistent foreign policy beliefs has been that America’s allies should bear a greater share of their own defense costs. His approach views alliances through an economic lens, weighing military partnerships against their immediate financial costs to the U.S. In his previous administration, he pressured South Korea to increase its financial contributions to sustain U.S. troops on the peninsula, asking for as much as five times the amount Seoul had been paying. He’s already said he’ll do the same. South Korea, he claims, is a “cash machine”.

If Trump takes office again, there’s little reason to believe this stance would soften. Instead, we might see an even more drastic push for cost-sharing, where failure to meet financial demands could result in a rapid reduction or complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from South Korea. Despite the Yoon Administration’s close integration with the U.S. under Biden - indeed, perhaps because of it - South Korea will be a target. Such a move would send a powerful message that the U.S. is reconsidering its commitment to South Korean security, possibly encouraging Seoul to take more drastic measures for its defense. 

Some argue that a reduced American presence could trigger a national reckoning in South Korea on whether to rely on the U.S. as a security partner. They fail to recognize that since the Korean War, South Korea has consistently and steadily pushed for ever greater autonomy within the constraints of the alliance. To date, it’s been near impossible to chart an independent course. Increasingly, this is less and less the case. South Korea today has an increasingly competent defense-industrial sector, indigenous technological development, and is even an important partner to America’s own defense-industrial sector. The next step? Reassessing its stance on nuclear development.

A nuclear South Korea?

In recent years, growing public support in South Korea for nuclear armament has emerged. Many in Washington see it as a reaction to North Korea’s advancing nuclear capabilities and the perceived limitations of the U.S. nuclear umbrella. This is not the complete picture. There is also political expediency, a distinct lack of a nuclear taboo, national pride, and the ever-present pursuit of autonomy and the capacity to act independently.

South Korean calls for nuclear independence could gain momentum under a Trump administration that appears reluctant to uphold defense guarantees. Indeed, it could even be aided by a Trump Administration that sees its own national security improved by having Chinese and North Korean nuclear weapons aimed at South Korea rather than Hawaii and California. A Trump Administration would more than likely go through several National Security Advisors - sooner or later, one of them will accept the conflated idea that a South Korea serves U.S. national interests.

Even if Harris is elected, the nuclear question could impact the alliance. A Harris Administration may respond to a South Korean nuclear breakout attempt with sanctions or other punitive measures, with the resulting discord forcing Seoul to question whether a reliance on the U.S. is tenable in the long term. A nuclear South Korea, once unthinkable, could fundamentally alter the balance of power in Northeast Asia and disrupt traditional security alignments, possibly encouraging Seoul to consider more independent or multilateral security arrangements.

A South Korean national populist

In the political landscape of South Korea, a leader’s stance on foreign policy and the U.S. alliance can have profound implications. Given the current political trends, the next South Korean president could be one with an inclination toward strategic autonomy or even non-alignment. This type of leader, more willing to distance South Korea from U.S. influence, could be propelled into office by a public increasingly wary of the U.S. alliance under a second Trump administration or a Harris Administration.

A South Korean president with a strong mandate for autonomy might advocate policies aimed at balancing relations between the U.S., China, and North Korea, rather than relying heavily on Washington. For instance, such a leader might seek deeper economic and diplomatic ties with China as a counterbalance, especially if relations with the U.S. are seen as overly transactional. This would represent a significant shift from traditional South Korean foreign policy, which has centered around a close partnership with the U.S. in order to deter North Korean aggression.

The unraveling 

As these three factors converge, the potential for a gradual and perhaps inevitable dissolution of the ROK-U.S. alliance becomes real. Reduced U.S. military presence and defense commitments would heighten South Korean insecurity, pushing Seoul closer toward nuclear autonomy. A South Korean president who leans toward non-alignment could further catalyze this shift by pursuing policies that prioritize national autonomy over alliance loyalty. Over time, these cumulative tensions could erode the foundational trust of the alliance, weakening it to the point where it becomes a nominal rather than functional partnership.

In this scenario, the ramifications would extend far beyond the Korean Peninsula. Japan would likely reassess its own security policies, potentially pursuing its own military buildup or, in a drastic scenario, considering nuclear armament. China, meanwhile, would stand to benefit from a weakened U.S. influence in the region, using its economic and political power to draw South Korea closer into its orbit. The power vacuum created by a deteriorating ROK-U.S. alliance would introduce a new level of volatility in Northeast Asia, potentially sparking an arms race or even regional conflicts.

An important contrast may be Poland at the end of the Soviet Union. Poland did not immediately turn against the Soviet Union, it just turned away. That is all it takes for an empire to unravel. 

The ROK-U.S. alliance has withstood decades of geopolitical storms. Regardless of who is elected, the pressures it will face in the next four to eight years could bring it to a breaking point. For South Korea, this could mean the end of its reliance on the U.S. security umbrella and the start of a more independent—yet risky—path forward. For the U.S., it could mean losing a crucial ally in the Indo-Pacific at a time of rising competition with China. The dissolution of the alliance may not be immediate, but as these speculative factors combine, the unthinkable might become a stark reality.

3. Opinion North Korean troops fighting Ukraine marks a dangerous new escalation

All the Korea watchers on the Washington Post editorial Board are weighing in. So "the West must be ready to respond."

Like most of us their recommendations are steadfast diplomacy, strong alliances, and firm deterrence. It would have been nice to see them flesh those out a little more.

But this about more tuna north Korea. The buried lede is that the convergence of geopolitical flashpoints is the main challenge facing the next president.

Conclusion:

A deadly axis of hostile anti-American and anti-Western powers is deepening military cooperation and is determined to challenge U.S. global primacy.Russia, China and North Korea are nuclear powers, and Iran is an aspirant to the nuclear club. Isolated geopolitical flash points in Europe, the Middle East and the Pacific could converge. Steadfast diplomacy, strong alliances and firm deterrence will be needed to meet this growing threat. This is the main challenge facing the next president, who will take office Jan. 20.

Opinion  North Korean troops fighting Ukraine marks a dangerous new escalation

Mr. Putin has succeeded in internationalizing the war; the U.S. and the West must be ready to respond.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/11/01/north-korea-russia-ukraine-war-escalation-pyongyang/?utm

Members of the Korean Vietnam War Veterans Association stage a rally against a recent deployment of North Korean troops to Russia. (Ahn Young-joon/AP)

By the Editorial Board

November 2, 2024 at 7:00 a.m. EDT

Confirmation that North Korea has deployed combat troops to assist Russian President Vladimir Putin in his full-scale invasion of Ukraine marks a dangerous escalation. In a worst-case scenario, it threatens to expand a European war into a global conflict encompassing the Asia-Pacific region. It is also a reminder of the high stakes of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election, as candidates wrangle over how the United States responds to such threats. America and its allies, in Asia as well as Europe, must coordinate their response.

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U.S. and NATO officials estimate that North Korea has sent some 10,000 troops to Russia’s far east for training. South Korean intelligence and Ukrainian officials put the number as high as 19,000. Some 1,500 North Korean special forces, known as the Storm Corps, are already believed to have been deployed to Russia’s Kursk region, where Russian soldiers have been struggling to eject the Ukrainian military.

Mr. Putin’s reliance on North Korean troops might be considered a tacit acknowledgment that his illegal invasion of Ukraine has not gone according to plan. Russia has suffered an estimated 600,000 troops killed or wounded and has had to expand an unpopular conscription. For Russia to turn to impoverished North Korea for fresh troops might be cause to think that Ukraine, with American and NATO support, is winning.

No one should give in to complacency.

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Mr. Putin and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un in June signed a mutual assistance pact. Pyongyang was already supplying Moscow with ballistic missiles and ammunition, particularly artillery shells, but the deployment of troops takes their partnership to an unnerving new level.

The North Korean deployment gives Mr. Putin additional manpower to prolong this conflict, which will soon mark three bloody years. His short-term goal is merely to keep the war going and make small territorial gains in Ukraine’s east — like the village of Tsukuryne, which Russia claims to have recently seized — while waiting for the U.S. election outcome.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, promises to continue supporting Ukraine and engaging with historical allies. Former president Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, has signaled he wants to end U.S. support for Ukraine and seek an immediate cease-fire deal, which could include forcing Ukraine to accept territorial concessions. The Europeans might still arm Ukraine even without continued U.S. help. But with Ukraine running out of troops, the addition of the North Koreans could at least incrementally help wear down European resolve.

The North Korean reinforcements also help Mr. Putin with his larger goal of demonstrating that Russia is not isolated on the world stage. It comes just after he hosted a summit of the BRICS group with leaders of Brazil, India, China and South Africa— the original members, along with Russia — and newcomers such as Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates. (Saudi Arabia participated without formally joining the group.) Ostensibly, the BRICS group’s goal is to help countries of the Global South challenge U.S. dominance in global financial institutions. Mr. Putin used the event to thumb his nose at Western leaders who have imposed sanctions on Russia and to showcase that he still has high-level friends.

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North Korea gets cash from Russia for its troops and access to coveted military technology it has been denied because of United Nations sanctions — technology that could be used against South Korea in event of a conflict. The North Korean troops will also get real battlefield training in modern-day warfare, including use of advanced weaponry and drones. The experience would prove invaluable to the North in a future conflict with South Korea.

Mr. Putin’s effort to internationalize the Ukraine war extends beyond North Korea. He has also turned to Iran and China; the latter has been stepping up purchases of Russian oil, gas and grain. Iran has supplied Russia with ballistic missiles, and Russia has reportedly given targeting data to the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen for its attacks on ships in the Red Sea.

A deadly axis of hostile anti-American and anti-Western powers is deepening military cooperation and is determined to challenge U.S. global primacy.Russia, China and North Korea are nuclear powers, and Iran is an aspirant to the nuclear club. Isolated geopolitical flash points in Europe, the Middle East and the Pacific could converge. Steadfast diplomacy, strong alliances and firm deterrence will be needed to meet this growing threat. This is the main challenge facing the next president, who will take office Jan. 20.

4. Harris, in Demarche in South Korean Press, Aims To Put Trump on the Spot Over His ‘Love’ of North Korea’s Kim Jong-un

I am not sure VP Harris was issuing a demarche to the former President. The headline editor at the NY Sun may want to consult some references. Or maybe I am misinterpreting the headline editor's intent and they are referring to the final two paragraphs describing north Korean and Russia's alliance. (though I still do not think demarche is correctly used)

démarche

Read a random definition: house closing

A quick definition of démarche:

Term: DÉMARCHE

Definition: A démarche is a statement made by a diplomat, either in writing or orally, that can contain a request, offer, protest, threat, or other similar communication.

Definition: Démarche (day-mahrsh) is a French word that means "gait" or "walk." In diplomacy, it refers to an oral or written statement that contains a demand, offer, protest, threat, or other similar communication.

Examples:

The ambassador made a démarche to the foreign minister, demanding that their country stop supporting terrorism.

The government issued a démarche to the neighboring country, protesting their recent military actions.

These examples illustrate how a démarche is a formal communication between countries or diplomats. It can be used to make demands, offer proposals, express concerns, or issue warnings. Démarches are often used in international relations to resolve conflicts or negotiate agreements.

Harris, in Demarche in South Korean Press, Aims To Put Trump on the Spot Over His ‘Love’ of North Korea’s Kim Jong-un

DONALD KIRK

Nov. 3, 2024 12:37 PM ET

nysun.com

Vice President Harris, aiming to put President Trump on the spot for his “love” of North Korea leader Kim Jong-un, is carrying her campaign for president to South Korea. She is appealing for the votes of more than 2 million Korean-Americans.

Ms. Harris reaffirmed her faith in the American-Korean- alliance without mentioning Trump’s personal fondness for Mr. Kim. That has often been expressed by Trump since the two met at their summit in Singapore in June 2018, again at Hanoi in February 2019, and four months later at the truce village of Panmunjom on the line between the two Koreas.

“Our alliance has been a linchpin of security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and around the world,” Ms. Harris wrote in an article for South Korea’s Yonhap newspaper. “Trump, by contrast, is demanding that South Korea pay $10 billion a year to host our troops despite its already sizable contributions — disparaging our alliance and disregarding America’s standing in the Indo-Pacific.”

The article, which has been top news in Korea’s national networks and newspapers, was timed to win the votes of Korean-Americans. Yet Ms. Harris also directed her appeal to South Korean leaders and officials wary of Mr. Trump’s demands for Seoul to pay more for the 28,500 American troops on bases in South Korea.

Korean officials fear Mr. Trump would weaken the alliance by rekindling his relationship with Mr. Kim, with whom Mr. Trump has exchanged a number of letters while saying they “fell in love” at the Singapore summit. Relations between Seoul and Washington deteriorated, however, during the presidency of the leftist Moon Jae-in.

Korean-American relations have much improved during Mr. Biden’s presidency and that of Mr. Moon’s successor, the conservative Yoon Seuk-yul, elected in March 2022. Ms. Harris, the daughter of a mother from India who she said “sacrificed to give our family the best life possible” as a cancer researcher at UC Berkeley, likened that record with that of “Korean-American immigrants working in family-owned grocery stores, dry cleaners and restaurants to build a brighter future for their children.”

In an analysis accompanying Ms. Harris’ article, Yonhap offered a comparison that reflected the outlook of the Yoon administration. “The Democratic flag-bearer is expected to pursue sturdier multilateral security cooperation through trilateral or other fit-for-purpose platforms,” said the Yonhap commentary, citing “tripartite cooperation with Seoul and Tokyo, and the Quad grouping involving the U.S., India, Japan and Australia.”

In contrast, said the commentary, “Trump has been hammering away at his ‘America first’ policy vision, which critics have warned would heap pressure on U.S. allies and partners to do more to address shared challenges while limiting America’s costly, burdensome involvement overseas.”

Without mentioning Mr. Trump’s visits to South Korea or his quest for a lasting deal with North Korea, Ms. Harris recalled her single sortie to the country in September 2022 when, while at the demilitarized zone, she “reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to the defense of South Korea.”

Ms. Harris’ commentary, timed as it was for Tuesday’s election, also appeared as a riposte to a visit to Moscow by North Korea’s highest-ranking woman, Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui. Pyongyang’s Korean Central News Agency said Ms. Choe and Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, had agreed that “the root cause of ever-escalating tensions in the Korean peninsula, Northeast Asia and other parts of the world lies in the provocations of the U.S. and its vassal countries.”

In keeping with the treaty signed by North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un and Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, Ms. Choe and Mr. Lavrov presumably got down to details on burgeoning North Korean-Russian relations. There was no mention, however, of the 10,000 North Korean troops now either with the Russians in Ukraine or on the way. Rather, said KCNA., the Russians supported all North Korea was doing “to deter the aggressive policy of the U.S. and its allies and ensure regional peace and stability.”

nysun.com

5. Ahead of election, America's N. Korea policy direction comes into focus

I am not seeing a new direction coming into focus. I am curious as to who is advising both campaigns on Korea.

As a reminder this is the Biden Administration policy (although never clearly stated in one document this is a synthesis of the major policy statements made during the term).

Biden Administration north Korea Policy

• Denuclearization of north Korea
• “Principled and practical diplomacy.”  - public focus - ready to negotiate anywhere, anytime without preconditions
• Alliance based focus for deterrence, defense, and diplomacy. And trilateral cooperation - ROK, Japan, US
• "Stern deterrence." This is about revitalizing the ROK/U.S. military alliance and strengthening defense capabilities to include returning exercises to a level that will sustain readiness (and support OPCON transition)
• A human rights up front approach. Unfortunately, so far this has only been words with no significant action.
• Full implementation of all relevant UN Security Council resolutions – no sanctions relief until substantive progress toward denuclearization
• What is missing?
• A superior political warfare strategy
• A comprehensive information and influence activities campaign
• A focus on support to South Korea in pursuit of a free and unified Korea

Ahead of election, America's N. Korea policy direction comes into focus

The Korea Times · by 2024-11-04 11:05 | World · November 4, 2024

Republican presidential nominee former U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris shake hands before the start of an ABC News presidential debate at the National Constitution Center, Sept. 10, in Philadelphia. AP-Yonhap

Two days ahead of the U.S. presidential election, the direction of America's policy on North Korea remains a consequential question for South Korea as Pyongyang continues a provocative streak with its menacing rhetoric, weapons tests, disturbing balloon launches and military cooperation with Russia.

Tuesday's election showdown between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald will come as Seoul is pushing to maintain closer cooperation with the United States to ensure a robust security posture against evolving North Korean nuclear and missile threats.

As seen in their campaign speeches, Harris and Trump are envisioning different policy approaches toward North Korea's security quandary.

Highlighting America's leadership on the global stage, Harris is expected to leverage a network of America's allies and partners to address the North Korean issue, which has taken on greater geopolitical overtones due to Pyongyang's recent troop dispatch to Russia.

During her nomination speech in August, the vice president said she will not "cozy up to tyrants and dictators like Kim Jong-un who are rooting for Trump" — remarks that hinted that if elected, she would carry out a conventional diplomatic approach rather than seeking direct diplomacy with the North Korean ruler.

Observers said that if elected, Harris would double down on bilateral and trilateral security cooperation with Seoul and Tokyo, and beef up deterrence against North Korean threats, while leaving open the door for diplomacy with the recalcitrant regime.

If reelected, Trump could seek to revive his personal diplomacy with the North Korean leader.

On the campaign trail, the former president has repeatedly boasted about his "love letters" and personal ties with Kim, even anticipating that the reclusive leader might like to see him return to office.

"I got along with him, and we stopped the missile launches from North Korea. Now, North Korea is acting up again, but when we get back, I get along with him," he said during a speech to accept the GOP presidential nomination in July.

"He'd like to see me back too. I think he misses me," he added, pointing out that it is "nice to get along with somebody who has a lot of nuclear weapons."

After Harris vowed not to "cozy up to" Kim, Trump also said that "getting along" with Kim is a "good thing" -- a statement that raised the likelihood of the former president employing a direct leader-to-leader diplomacy with the reclusive regime.

During his time in office, Trump took what analysts called an unconventional "top-down" diplomatic approach to the North, leading to three meetings with Kim, including the first-ever bilateral summit in Singapore in 2018, though serious nuclear talks have been stalled since the no-deal summit in Hanoi in February 2019.

At the Hanoi summit, the North Korean leader offered to dismantle the mainstay Yongbyon nuclear complex, but Trump apparently wanted more concessions as the U.S. saw the complex as only one part of the North's sprawling nuclear program.

Whatever approach a new president turns to, there remains a more crucial question of whether Pyongyang would accede to diplomatic feelers from Washington.

The Biden administration has repeatedly made overtures for dialogue with Pyongyang, stressing its openness to engage with the regime "without preconditions." But the overtures have been answered only with missile tests and other provocative activities.

Observers believed that Pyongyang's appetite for re-engagement with Washington might have further dwindled as it has bolstered ties with Russia and maintained the long-standing friendly partnership with China.

If nuclear negotiations with North Korea resume, bargaining could be much tougher than before given that Pyongyang is thought to have made progress in its efforts to produce and improve nuclear warheads and delivery vehicles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles.

For Trump, expectations have lingered that if he returns to the Oval office, he could want to write a coda — befitting his "deal-making" finesse — to the unfinished business of addressing the North's nuclear conundrum.

If elected, Harris could be called upon to explore a more creative approach to make progress in efforts to address North Korea's security challenge as Pyongyang could test America's mettle with escalatory military activities, analysts said. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · by 2024-11-04 11:05 | World · November 4, 2024

6. How Donald Trump winning would impact China, Russia, Iran and North Korea

How Donald Trump winning would impact China, Russia, Iran and North Korea

Newsweek · by Brendan Cole · November 3, 2024

Donald Trump has boasted about his ties with strongman leaders other United States presidents would have kept at arm's length, but this does not mean his potential retaking of the Oval Office next week will be toasted in Moscow, Pyongyang, Tehran or Beijing.

Foreign policy issues on the Resolute Desk's in-tray include whether Trump can make good on his claim that he can end the war in Ukraine started by Vladimir Putin, dealing with a widening conflict in the Middle East in which the U.S. has a key role, North Korea's nuclear threats and a trade tussle with China.

Amid concern that Washington would lurch toward a more isolationist foreign policy should Trump win on Tuesday, Newsweek asked experts what they thought his victory would mean for four countries considered adversaries or rivals.

Newsweek reached out to the Trump campaign for comment.

China

Then-U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on November 9, 2017. Another Trump presidency could see a heightened tensions between Beijing and Washington, experts told Newsweek. Then-U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on November 9, 2017. Another Trump presidency could see a heightened tensions between Beijing and Washington, experts told Newsweek. FRED DUFOUR/Getty Images

Trump's first administration contained China hawks, and during his first term, Trump slapped tariffs and other barriers to tackle what he said were Beijing's unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft.

According to Lyle Goldstein, director for Asia Engagement at Defense Priorities, Beijing is wary of a Trump White House return.

"There is some possibility that the relationship could take a positive turn if Trump is more inclined to strike pragmatic deals with Beijing and less inclined towards directly supporting Taiwan," Goldstein told Newsweek.

"My sense is that Beijing would react by trying to appeal to Trump's pragmatic side but would also steel itself for the more likely intensification of tensions," he said.

Beijing shows little sign of altering its stance either on its ties with Moscow or its belligerence in the South China Sea, including drills around Taiwan, the self-governing island it claims as its own, which Beijing could invade to prove it.

However, Goldstein said if the Trump administration embraced the One China policy, "Beijing would reciprocate by lowering tensions—both in the Strait and also in the South China Sea."

Zhiqun Zhu, a political science professor at Bucknell University, said a Trump presidency would see him continue or even escalate his trade war.

"One can expect some retaliation from China, and bilateral tensions will rise," he told Newsweek.

"Xi is likely to take advantage of Trump's ego and make some symbolic concessions in trade to Trump, such as buying more agricultural products from the U.S. and simultaneously seek Trump's reciprocity in other areas such as Taiwan or the South China Sea."

Russia and the War in Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and then-President Donald Trump at the G20 Summit on November 30, 2018. Kremlin propagandists have championed Trump's return to the White House. Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and then-President Donald Trump at the G20 Summit on November 30, 2018. Kremlin propagandists have championed Trump's return to the White House. Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

Trump has repeatedly said he would end the war in Ukraine within a day were he to retake office. Trump's praise for Putin during the war, calling the Russian president a "genius" at the invasion's start and "smart" as recently as October 25, amplify concerns about what his return to the White House means for U.S. support for Kyiv.

"Trump has indicated a strong preference for Russia over Ukraine in both words and deeds," Robert Orttung, research professor of international affairs at the George Washington University, told Newsweek.

"But his policies are out of step with traditional U.S. national interests and will create strong pushback across the political spectrum and from the intelligence and national security communities," Orttung said. "These groups are rightly skeptical of Russian intentions. Under Trump, the U.S. would appear weak, divided, and easily manipulated by dictators."

Following their September meeting in New York, Trump said he had a good relationship with Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky, but he also reiterated his warm ties with Putin.

Simon Schlegel, senior Ukrainian analyst at the International Crisis Group, said Trump has made it clear he wants to resolve the war quickly and could initiate negotiations between Russia and Ukraine even before he takes office after winning.

"All of this, of course, is very worrying for Ukraine," he told Newsweek. "Ukrainians know very well there is no easy way out of this and that it's going to mean very painful decisions for the Ukrainian government which the Zelensky presidency is not very good at taking, and which will be necessary if Trump wins.

"There's also a bit of wishful thinking around Donald Trump's possible next presidency that his foreign policy has been so erratic, and so guided by personal friendships and personal grudges, that if he would try to negotiate with Putin and Putin would let him run into a wall, then he would put all his support behind Ukraine."

"A lot of Ukrainians find consolation in the unpredictability of what Trump is going and also because it is not clear what Kamala Harris winning means for Ukraine," Schlegel added.

Iran

Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty

During Trump's presidency, tensions between Washington and Tehran soared after he pulled the U.S. out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which had imposed restrictions on Iran's nuclear program.

Two years later, Iran issued an arrest warrant for Trump and his aides after the killing of top Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in an airstrike in Iraq.

Hamidreza Azizi, a research fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said there is no unified view in the Islamic Republic about what a Trump victory might mean. However, the dominant opinion among Tehran's political elite "is that the situation is going to get worse for Iran."

Azizi said this is due to Trump's history of "maximum pressure" on Iran, his alliance with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his support for Israel "and his unpredictability."

A second group in Iran believes that the overarching hostility between Tehran and Washington will remain, regardless of who is in the White House. However, a minority hopes that a Trump presidency would be better for Iran "because he's more open to business, and if you are going to make a deal with Trump, it would be easier with him than with Kamala Harris," Azizi said.

The repercussions of U.S.-Iranian relations will be felt across the Middle East. Tehran backs Hamas in Gaza, which Israel has bombarded following the Palestinian militant group's October 7, 2023, attacks.

The conflict has widened to include Hezbollah in Lebanon, whose leaders Israel has targeted, while the U.S. and the United Kingdom are targeting other Iranian proxies, the Houthis in Yemen, following the group's attacks on Red Sea shipping.

"With Trump, there is a winner and a loser. There's no gray zone, and there's not a diplomatic zone, really," said Gene Moran, a national security expert and former adviser to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, "so I think we might see a more brash approach with Iran."

"I think there would be certainly tougher words," Moran told Newsweek. "We could see Trump take more aggressive action in cutting off funding more completely. I think Biden has allowed money to move in ways that probably could have been prevented more aggressively."

The signals Trump has sent so far could encourage Netanyahu to take the next step in the conflict with Iran between the election and taking the oath of office.

"My fear is that in that scenario—even in the period between November and January—you're going to see an actual war between Iran and Israel," Azizi said.

North Korea

Then-U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un talk in the Demilitarized Zone on June 30, 2019. There is speculation over what another Trump presidency would mean for ties between Washington and... Then-U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un talk in the Demilitarized Zone on June 30, 2019. There is speculation over what another Trump presidency would mean for ties between Washington and Pyongyang. BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/Getty Images

As the first U.S. president to ever step inside North Korea, Trump told podcast host Joe Rogan that he "got along great" with the secretive state's leader.

But Trump's view of Kim Jong Un as both "little rocket man" and "wingman" has reinforced concerns about his attitude toward Pyongyang, which test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile on Thursday—five days before the U.S. election.

Karl Friedhoff, a fellow for Asia Studies at the Chicago Council on Foreign Affairs, said that if Trump were elected, there would be little interagency coordination, which Pyongyang could leverage.

"I think we're likely to see chaos," Friedhoff told Newsweek."We'll see a roller coaster vacillating from very high tensions to highly choreographed personal diplomacy between leaders."

Friedhoff said that when Kim and Trump last met in Vietnam in February 2019, Pyongyang came in unprepared to make any deal, but "that won't be the case this time around.

"They'll be much better prepared with a negotiating package and will seek to exploit all of Trump's weaknesses. Those negotiations will be a real wild card for Trump's presidency and the region."

South Korea is the linchpin of the U.S. alliance architecture, and Friedhoff said that Trump has been "steadily trying to claw that pin loose."

During his first presidency, the presence of 28,000 American troops in South Korea prompted Trump to accuse Seoul of "free-riding" on U.S. military might.

The current agreement expires next year, but in October, the U.S. and South Korea announced a new cost-sharing agreement for U.S. forces in South Korea that both sides were keen to complete ahead of a possible Trump administration, CNN reported.

"The most extreme nonwar result would likely be a South Korean nuclear weapons program coming online within the Trump presidency, and the ripple effects of that program washing up on the shores of Japan," said Friedhoff.

"The development of such a program would be extremely risky in the time between the program being discovered—and it will be discovered—and those weapons becoming operable."

Newsweek · by Brendan Cole · November 3, 2024

7. Russian tanks left North Korean soldiers behind, unable to keep up with the situation

This is a Google translation of an RFA report. All these reports must be taken with a grain of salt.

Here is an interesting excerpt from a relatively long report. Again I would take this with a grain of salt. This appears to be  describing the battle that presumably had the surviving wounded soldier on video.

Excerpts:

The Republic of Buryatia is a region bordering Mongolia, so there is a large Mongolian population. Also , the 11th Guards Airborne Brigade of the Russian Airborne Forces, which was originally stationed in Buryatia, also had quite a few Buryat people , so North Korea tried to disguise its troops as being from Buryatia from the beginning of their deployment . The battle on October 25th that the Omani representative mentioned is believed to have been a battle in the northern region of the Kursk Front where North Korean troops of the 11th Brigade clashed with the 95th Airborne Brigade of the Ukrainian Army . 

After receiving intelligence that North Korean troops had appeared in the area under the jurisdiction of the 95th Brigade of the Ukrainian Army, we monitored the battlefield situation there more closely , and on October 30 , a very absurd situation was captured on drone cameras . In the area, three Russian BTR-82 armored vehicles were seen attacking a wooded area 4 km south of the town of Kalinov . In the footage, they appeared to be completely out of sync . The vehicles drove close to the wooded area, then opened fire from their machine guns and ordered the infantrymen on board to dismount . The infantrymen got out of the vehicles , but instead of charging, they lay down next to the vehicles and panicked . Instead of protecting the infantrymen , the vehicles turned around and went back the way they came . We are currently analyzing the footage , but it is believed that this incident occurred due to a lack of communication between the Russian soldiers driving the vehicles and the North Korean soldiers on board . 

Most of the North Korean soldiers who went to Russia this time are infantry, so the Russian military doctrine that primarily moves with vehicles or armored vehicles may be very foreign to North Korean soldiers . If they had received proper training , they could have played a basic role as motorized infantry , but since they were deployed without any training, most North Korean soldiers will show a scene in which their battle lines collapse in battle due to lack of coordination with the Russian military, as shown in this video . It would be fortunate if Russia provided armored vehicles . Since Russia also lacks armored vehicles , it is likely that most North Korean soldiers will be deployed as infantry, running barefoot across the vast plains . The Lithuanian group representative mentioned earlier claims that the North Korean military is planning to deploy up to 88,000 troops , but since Russia does not have the weapons production capacity to sufficiently arm this number of troops, it is very likely that most of them will fall victim to cannon fodder or bullet cannons .

Russian tanks left North Korean soldiers behind, unable to keep up with the situation

https://www.rfa.org/korean/weekly_program/c2e0bc15d55cd55cbc18b3c4c2e0bb34ae30b300bc31acfc/north-korea-russia-tank-11022024001812.html

WASHINGTON-Kim Jin-guk kimj@rfa.org

2024.11.02

North Korea's General Secretary Kim Jong-un guided a joint training match between the tank corps of the Korean People's Army on March 13, the Korean Central News Agency reported on March 14.

/ Yonhap News

00:00 /16:39

( Host ) We will accurately grasp the current state of the military standoff on the Korean Peninsula and seek a path to peace. This is Kim Jin-guk, presenting 'Encyclopedia of New Weapons on the Korean Peninsula' from Washington D.C. We will connect with Lee Il-woo, Secretary General of the ' Independent Defense Network ' in Korea .

A battle between Russian BTR-82 armored vehicles believed to be manned by North Korean troops in the Kursk region . After a chaotic battle, the Russian armored vehicle leaves behind the North Korean troops . / Source: Ukrainian Army

Russian armored vehicle captured abandoned by North Korean troops during battle

( Anchor ) There are reports coming out that North Korean troops have been deployed to the war in Ukraine. To be exact, they have been deployed to the Kursk region , Russian mainland territory occupied by Ukraine . There are predictions that North Korean troops will end up as "bullet cannon fodder" not only in Ukraine but also in the Russian military, which is fighting alongside the North Korean troops with support ?

( Lee Il-woo )  Although it is not cross-verified information yet, the first news of fighting, which was cited by a great many media outlets, came from a Lithuanian civilian group . This group called 'Blue / Yellow' is an organization that has been providing various aid to Ukraine through fundraising since the outbreak of the war , and as it is an organization that has been providing aid for quite a long time, it is known to have many informants in the Ukrainian military and intelligence agencies .

[ Encyclopedia of New Weapons on the Korean Peninsula ] Is the Price of Deploying the North's Storm Corps to Russia Strategic Nuclear Submarines ?

[ Encyclopedia of New Weapons on the Korean Peninsula ] North Korea's Dangerous Bill for Becoming a 'Weapon Emperor'

According to the group's representative, Jonas Orman, North Korean troops first clashed with Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region on October 25. The encounter involved troops below the company level , and all but one of the North Korean soldiers were killed . The one who survived and was captured presented Ukrainian troops with documents proving that he was from the Autonomous Republic of Buryatia .

The Republic of Buryatia is a region bordering Mongolia, so there is a large Mongolian population. Also , the 11th Guards Airborne Brigade of the Russian Airborne Forces, which was originally stationed in Buryatia, also had quite a few Buryat people , so North Korea tried to disguise its troops as being from Buryatia from the beginning of their deployment . The battle on October 25th that the Omani representative mentioned is believed to have been a battle in the northern region of the Kursk Front where North Korean troops of the 11th Brigade clashed with the 95th Airborne Brigade of the Ukrainian Army .

After receiving intelligence that North Korean troops had appeared in the area under the jurisdiction of the 95th Brigade of the Ukrainian Army, we monitored the battlefield situation there more closely , and on October 30 , a very absurd situation was captured on drone cameras . In the area, three Russian BTR-82 armored vehicles were seen attacking a wooded area 4 km south of the town of Kalinov . In the footage, they appeared to be completely out of sync . The vehicles drove close to the wooded area, then opened fire from their machine guns and ordered the infantrymen on board to dismount . The infantrymen got out of the vehicles , but instead of charging, they lay down next to the vehicles and panicked . Instead of protecting the infantrymen , the vehicles turned around and went back the way they came . We are currently analyzing the footage , but it is believed that this incident occurred due to a lack of communication between the Russian soldiers driving the vehicles and the North Korean soldiers on board .

Most of the North Korean soldiers who went to Russia this time are infantry, so the Russian military doctrine that primarily moves with vehicles or armored vehicles may be very foreign to North Korean soldiers . If they had received proper training , they could have played a basic role as motorized infantry , but since they were deployed without any training, most North Korean soldiers will show a scene in which their battle lines collapse in battle due to lack of coordination with the Russian military, as shown in this video . It would be fortunate if Russia provided armored vehicles . Since Russia also lacks armored vehicles , it is likely that most North Korean soldiers will be deployed as infantry, running barefoot across the vast plains . The Lithuanian group representative mentioned earlier claims that the North Korean military is planning to deploy up to 88,000 troops , but since Russia does not have the weapons production capacity to sufficiently arm this number of troops, it is very likely that most of them will fall victim to cannon fodder or bullet cannons .

Is Russia's top fighter jet Sukhoi -35 on North Korea's high bill ?

( Anchor ) As the number of troops and weapons that North Korea provides to Russia increases, the cost that Russia has to pay to North Korea will inevitably increase . There are concerns that North Korea will obtain strategic weapons technology from Russia through this human sacrifice , and recently, there have been concerns that the possibility of importing the latest fighter jets has also been raised ?

 ( Lee Il-woo ) Iran , which supplied a large amount of weapons to Russia before North Korea, is preparing to import new fighter jets from Russia. In particular, Iran has been spurring the strengthening of its fighter jet and surface-to-air missile capabilities since Israel launched about 100 fighter jets on October 26 , devastating Iran's medium- and long-range air defense network . Iran also announced that it would increase its defense budget by 200% starting next year . It is reported that a significant amount of the increased budget will go toward purchasing fighter jets . In addition to importing Russian-made Su-35 and Su-30 fighter jets , Iran also sent its Air Force Commander to Pakistan to discuss the mass introduction of JF-17 Block 3 light fighters .

Of course, Iran denies the reports of importing Sukhoi fighters from Russia as fake news, but it has already completed the introduction of 12 YAK-130 advanced trainer aircraft for training Sukhoi fighter pilots , and satellite images have confirmed that construction is underway on a large hangar for operating Sukhoi fighters at the Shahid Nozeh Air Base in western Iran . And Ukrainian media is reporting that North Korea will also receive Su-35s in exchange for supplying weapons to Russia .

In fact, North Korea has had its eye on the Su-35 fighter jet for quite some time . In November 2014 , when then-Secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea Choe Ryong Hae , along with then-Deputy Chief of the General Staff No Kwang Chol, visited Moscow as Kim Jong Un’s special envoy , they met with then-Deputy Chief of the General Staff Andrei Kartapolov , a powerful figure in the Russian military and currently the Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, the lower house of the Russian parliament, and requested the sale of Su-35s . It is known that Choe and his party stopped by the Sukhoi fighter jet factory in Komsomolsk-on-Amur on their way back home .

North Korea's desire to introduce the Su-35 was also revealed when Kim Jong-un visited Russia in September 2023. At that time , Russia invited Kim Jong-un to the Komsomolsk-on-Amur plant at North Korea's request, allowing him to personally inspect the Su-35 and Su-57 .

 Kim Jong-un and Su-35 fighter jets visiting the Sukhoi factory during the 2023 North Korea-Russia summit. / Source: Korean Central News Agency

According to a report published on October 28 by the Policy Research Institute of the Free Democratic Party of Germany , which synthesized various intelligence reports, leaked documents , and weapon prices found in North Korea’s previous arms deals , the total value of weapons supplied by North Korea to Russia so far amounts to 5.5 billion dollars . Given that North Korea has decided to significantly increase its arms exports to Russia in the fourth quarter and has even dispatched a large number of troops , the trade-offs it will receive from Russia will not end with strategic weapons technology . North Korea is very interested in modernizing its air force, a long-cherished goal for over 40 years , and it is possible that it may have taken this opportunity to jointly purchase the Su-35 with its long-time ally, Iran .

According to foreign media reports introduced earlier, Iran is preparing to not only purchase Su-35s directly from Russia , but also to produce them locally under license . If there is some kind of agreement between North Korea, Russia , and Iran, it cannot be ruled out that Su-35s produced in Iran could be supplied to North Korea .

Can the Su-35, which is too cumbersome for the North , withstand the ' weight of the crown ' ?

( Anchor )  The possibility that North Korea will receive new Russian-made fighter jets cannot be completely ruled out, as it has been found that various preparatory work for the introduction of new fighter jets is already underway within North Korea . What preparations has North Korea made for the introduction of new fighter jets , and if these preparatory work is underway, will North Korea be able to operate the new fighter jet, the Sukhoi -35, well ?

( Lee Il-woo )  The Su-35 is the latest fighter jet that Russia classifies as a 4.5 generation ++ and claims to be an air superiority fighter that is superior to all existing 4.5 generation fighter jets . The prototype appeared in 1988 , but it was significantly improved in 2008 and was given the name Su-35S . Since then, it has been continuously improved to strengthen its radar, engine , and electronic equipment .

This fighter is a fighter of a completely different dimension from the old MIG-29s that North Korea currently possesses . It is more than 1.5 times larger , and its engine thrust is so powerful that it can cruise at supersonic speeds . It is described as having superior aerial maneuverability to almost all aircraft currently in operation by the United States and Europe , and its radar is advertised as being able to detect enemy aircraft from a distance of 400 km .

For North Korea, whose top priority is to protect Pyongyang , the heart of the revolution , this cutting-edge fighter jet is absolutely necessary to counter the ROK-US combined air force in the event of an emergency . The problem, however, is that the modernization of the North Korean air force has been stagnant for so long that even if Russia were to give North Korea this fighter jet, it is highly likely that North Korea would not be able to process it .

The MiG-29 and Su-35 have completely different control methods . The MiG-29 uses a hydraulic control system in which the throttle and various flight control devices held by the pilot's hands are connected to each actuator and the hydraulic system of the airframe , whereas the Su-35 has adopted an electronic fly-by-wire control system . It is similar to the concept of power steering and non-power steering in a car . Unlike a car that only needs to be controlled in two dimensions, an aircraft needs to control all movements for three- dimensional maneuvers, so a pilot who has flown the MiG-29 would have to go through basic flight training again to fly the Su-35 , not just simple aircraft conversion training .

The average annual flight time of a North Korean fighter pilot is about 15 to 25 hours, which is about one-tenth of that of South Korea or the United States , but it is difficult to maintain even a basic sense of flight with this amount of flight time . Currently, in order for a North Korean fighter pilot to pilot a Su-35 fighter jet alone , he or she must first complete basic flight training, advanced flight training , and introductory tactical flight training for at least two years , including at least one year using the MiG-AT , a basic trainer equipped with a digital fly-by- wire system, or at least one year using the YAK-130, an advanced trainer . However, North Korea does not have a single YAK -130 , and the Russian military has around 100 YAK -130s , which are not enough to be mobilized for the current training courses to train Russian pilots . Even if Russia gave North Korea the Su-35s , it would not be possible for North Korea to use them .

Kim Jong-un inspects the modernized Suncheon Airport on November 30, 2023. / Source: Korean Central News Agency

Also, the Su-35 is digital, making it difficult to integrate with North Korea's air defense network or communication system, which are completely analog . In order for North Korea to properly use this fighter jet, it would have to completely overhaul its ground control system , which would require a significant amount of money and time .

Of course, North Korea has not completely given up. By the summer of 2022 , through the modernization project at Suncheon Airport, a hangar and support facilities capable of accommodating the Su-35 were built , and the runway was extended by 300m to enable the takeoff and landing of large fighters . The production of an early warning aircraft modified from the IL-76 transport aircraft that has been identified since last year also appears to be for the purpose of operating in conjunction with the Su-35 . However, even if these preparatory works are supported, because the modernization of the North Korean Air Force itself has been at a standstill for such a long time, even if North Korea receives the Su-35 , it is expected to take at least five more years for this fighter to function properly as a force .

How will the ROK -US combined forces deal with the North Korean Air Force using the Su -35 ?

( Host )  Russia claims that this Su-35 fighter jet is the world's strongest 4.5 generation plus plus fighter jet . Therefore, no matter how lacking North Korea's capabilities may be, if Russia continues to support it and North Korea accumulates operational experience, this Su -35 fighter jet could pose a significant threat to South Korea and the United States . If North Korea properly operates this Su -35 , will the nature of the fight for air supremacy on the Korean Peninsula change ?

( Lee Il-woo ) The commonality between weapons produced by totalitarian states such as  North Korea, China, Russia, and Iran is that the gap between catalog data and actual performance is too large . If you only look at the specifications, they are the best in the world , but when they are actually deployed in combat, the combat results are too often poor .

As for the Su-35 fighter jets, Russia had around 140 of them before the outbreak of war with Ukraine . According to the specifications claimed by Russia, these fighter jets should have been able to detect enemy aircraft from 400 km away, track 30 targets simultaneously, and attack 8 of them simultaneously . The Su-35s were equipped with the latest air-to-air weapons, such as the KS-172 air-to-air missile with a range of 400 km and the R-77M with a range of 200 km . Russia also had support assets such as the A-50U Mainstay early warning and control aircraft , so the Ukrainian military's old Su-27s and MiG-29s should have been destroyed long ago . However, three years after the outbreak of the war, Russia has not been able to secure air supremacy over the Ukrainian battlefield , and the Su-35s are having a hard time entering Ukrainian airspace .

Russia's boasted radar detection range of 400 km , simultaneous tracking and simultaneous attack capabilities of dozens of targets were all lies . The air-to-air shootdown record of the Russian Su-35 is about 3 aircraft by August of that year, including 1 on March 1 , 2022 , at the beginning of the war, when two Su-35s shot down an old Ukrainian MiG-29 in a joint attack . According to the fighter specifications revealed by Russia, the Ukrainian fighters should have been detected first outside the Ukraine - Russia border , and then shot down unilaterally by firing air-to-air missiles from hundreds of kilometers away , but that did not happen , and the air-to-air engagements mentioned above were all close-range dogfights . This means that the medium-range air-to-air combat capability of the Su-35 may be much worse than previously known .

In contrast, the fighter jets of the ROK-US Combined Forces are fighter jets whose performance has been verified in actual combat, and whose performance is continuously being improved . Not to mention the ROK Air Force's F-35 stealth fighter , even the KF-16 fighter jets that were recently improved to the F-16V specification are overwhelming the Su-35 in terms of radar, air-to-air weapons , and electronic warfare equipment performance . The ROK-US Air Force also plans to improve the F-15 series fighter jets currently in operation to the F-15EX specification , and this F-15EX is a fighter jet that is one level higher than the Su-35 in all aspects, including radar , weapons capabilities , and electronic warfare equipment, and is the pinnacle of 4.5 generation fighter jets .

The George Washington aircraft carrier carrying the F-35C and the Super Hornet, which is equipped with long-range air-to-air missiles. /Source: US Navy 7th Fleet

In addition, the US military recently deployed a carrier strike group to Northeast Asia armed with electronic warfare Growler fighters that can blind North Korean fighters from hundreds of kilometers away, and Super Hornet fighters that can fire ultra-long-range air-to-air missiles from 400 to 600 kilometers away . Even if North Korea attempts to modernize its air force by acquiring Su-35s , it will be useless in the face of the combined air power of South Korea and the US .

( Host ) This was Lee Il-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Independent Defense Network. Now, with Kim Jin-guk from RFA in Washington ,  D.C.

Editor Lee Jin-seo, Web Editor Lee Gyeong-ha

8. Yoon calls for thorough countermeasures against 'illegal' N. Korea-Russia military cooperation

I always wonder what are "thorough countermeasures?"

Note the emphasis on human rights here. I think President Yoon is right to point out that deterrence has been significantly strengthened. You cannot say we are going to strengthen deterrence after every provocation.

The second half of this article is about the South Korean budget controversy.

Excerpts:

Yoon said South Korea has significantly bolstered its deterrence against North Korea's nuclear threats through its robust alliance with the United States and the trilateral security cooperation involving Japan, and promised to strengthen security readiness based on the security frameworks.

At the same time, Yoon committed to expand support for North Korean defectors and raising awareness of human rights issues in North Korea by hosting international dialogues on the issue.

"We will work to expand the international community's understanding and support for the vision of a free and unified Korea," Yoon said.

(2nd LD) Yoon calls for thorough countermeasures against 'illegal' N. Korea-Russia military cooperation | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · November 4, 2024

(ATTN: ADDS parliamentary speaker's response in last 3 paras; ADDS photo)

By Kim Eun-jung

SEOUL, Nov. 4 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol on Monday called for thorough countermeasures against the "illegal" military cooperation between North Korea and Russia, saying that the deepening alliance between Pyongyang and Moscow poses a significant security threat to South Korea.

In a parliamentary address read by Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, Yoon pledged to bolster security and defense amid growing security concerns posed by North Korea's troop deployment to Russia in support of its war in Ukraine.

"The recent international security situation and the illegal military cooperation between North Korea and Russia pose a significant threat to our national security," Yoon said. "We will thoroughly review all possible scenarios to prepare countermeasures."

President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks during a Cabinet meeting at the presidential office in Seoul on Oct. 29, 2024. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)

Yoon said South Korea has significantly bolstered its deterrence against North Korea's nuclear threats through its robust alliance with the United States and the trilateral security cooperation involving Japan, and promised to strengthen security readiness based on the security frameworks.

At the same time, Yoon committed to expand support for North Korean defectors and raising awareness of human rights issues in North Korea by hosting international dialogues on the issue.

"We will work to expand the international community's understanding and support for the vision of a free and unified Korea," Yoon said.

Prime Minister Han Duck-soo (bottom) reads President Yoon Suk Yeol's budget speech during a plenary session at the National Assembly in Seoul on Nov. 4, 2024. (Yonhap)

The speech outlined the details of next year's budget of 677.4 trillion won (US$509.7 billion), a 3.2 percent increase from the previous year.

It marked the first time in 11 years that a sitting president has opted not to deliver the budget speech in person.

Yoon said the budget proposal includes cuts in unnecessary projects in line with a "sound fiscal policy," while prioritizing the welfare of vulnerable groups and fostering economic growth to address complex challenges.

"In the 2 1/2 years since the government was launched, there has not been a single day without significant difficulties both at home and abroad," Yoon said.

"Our economy has faced severe challenges due to the global complex crisis, including persistently high interest rates, inflation and uncertainty in the financial markets, along with economic slowdowns in major countries, have led to a decline in our exports," he added.

Prime Minister Han Duck-soo delivers the 2025 budget speech on behalf of President Yoon Suk Yeol during a plenary session at the National Assembly in Seoul on Nov. 4, 2024. (Yonhap)

Yoon emphasized the budget proposal focuses on the government's reform agenda for health care, pensions, labor and education to address challenges posed by a low birth rate and an aging population.

"The four major reforms on pension, labor, education and health care are urgent and critical tasks that must be undertaken immediately for the survival of the nation," Yoon said. "The government is committed to completing these reforms despite any challenges."

The president outlined initiatives to boost the low birth rate and requested parliamentary support for creating the Ministry of Population Strategy, a proposed control tower to manage the demographic crisis.

"I urge the National Assembly to swiftly pass the necessary legislation, including the Government Organization Act, to promptly launch the Ministry of Population Strategy," he said.

The statutory budget deadline is set for Dec. 2, though the National Assembly has met this deadline only twice in the past two decades, in 2015 and 2021.

During the plenary session, National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-sik expressed "strong regret" over Yoon's skipping of the address, saying people will be "very disappointed" by the decision.

"The president's refusal to present the budget address is an infringement on people's rights," Woo said. "As a leader of the National Assembly, which represents the public, I express strong regret."

In September, Yoon also opted not to attend the opening session of the 22nd Assembly, marking the first absence by an incumbent president from the ceremony since 1987.

ejkim@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · November 4, 2024

9. S. Korea, U.N. host joint disarmament conference for foreign diplomats

I do not think we should jump to any conclusion over this. I don't think this means South Korea is going to propose nuclear disarmament talks with north Korea.

Excerpt:

South Korea will use the sessions to introduce its contribution to the international disarmament efforts and its policy on North Korea.

S. Korea, U.N. host joint disarmament conference for foreign diplomats | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · November 4, 2024

SEOUL, Nov. 4 (Yonhap) -- The foreign ministry will host a group of foreign diplomats this week for a joint conference and other programs with the United Nations to brief them on South Korea's disarmament efforts and its North Korea policy, the ministry said Monday.

The two-day South Korea-U.N. disarmament conference, running through Tuesday, will bring together 25 diplomats from Europe, Latin America, the Asia-Pacific, Africa and the Middle East who are currently engaged in disarmament diplomacy, the ministry said in a release.

They will participate in a conference and various other programs focusing on efforts to enhance the global nonproliferation and disarmament regime.

South Korea will use the sessions to introduce its contribution to the international disarmament efforts and its policy on North Korea.

The participants will also tour the Demilitarized Zone separating the two Koreas.

The U.N. has run the disarmament program for young diplomats since 1978 as part of efforts to promote their expertise in disarmament and nonproliferation issues. South Korea first established its joint program with the U.N. in 2016.

This file photo shows a continuation session of the U.N. disarmament conference taking place at the U.N. office in Geneva, Switzerland, on Jan. 31, 2023. (Yonhap)

elly@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · November 4, 2024

10. N. Korea presumed to change name of think tank dealing with affairs with S. Korea

​Beware Korea watchers. You may soon receive solicitations from this "new" think tank: DPRK Institute of Enemy State Studies

​I doubt we will be seeing this "think tank" be represented at conferences.  

Perhaps South Korea and the US should establish corresponding think tanks.

ROK  Institute of Enemy State Studies

​US  Institute of Enemy State Studies

(note attempt at humor for all of the above).

N. Korea presumed to change name of think tank dealing with affairs with S. Korea | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · November 4, 2024

SEOUL, Nov. 4 (Yonhap) -- North Korea appears to have changed the name of a think tank designed to analyze affairs with South Korea, Seoul's unification ministry said Monday, as its leader Kim Jong-un has bolstered animosity toward the South.

North Korea disclosed the entity named the DPRK Institute of Enemy State Studies for the first time Sunday when it introduced a white paper issued by the think tank criticizing President Yoon Suk Yeol.

The unification ministry in charge of inter-Korean affairs said North Korea is presumed to have changed the name of the National Reunification Institute into the DPRK Institute of Enemy State Studies as an organization under the ruling Workers' Party of Korea (WPK)

The move comes as North Korean leader Kim Jong-un defined inter-Korean relations as those between "two states hostile to each other" at a year-end party meeting.

Kim also ordered agencies handling inter-Korean relations to be disbanded and remove unification-related references.

North Korea earlier changed the name of the United Front Department, a key party organ in charge of affairs with South Korea under the party, into the WPK Central Committee Bureau 10, or the tentatively named Enemy State Guidance Bureau.

This photo, taken from the Odusan Unification Observatory in Paju, just south of the inter-Korean border on Oct. 29, 2024, shows loudspeakers against South Korea, installed by North Korea. (Yonhap)

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · November 4, 2024

11.S. Korea, U.S. sign defense cost-sharing deal ahead of U.S. elections

A solid agreement that is win-win for both countries.

S. Korea, U.S. sign defense cost-sharing deal ahead of U.S. elections | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · November 4, 2024

By Kim Seung-yeon

SEOUL, Nov. 4 (Yonhap) -- South Korea and the United States formally signed a defense cost-sharing agreement Monday, as Seoul seeks to speed up its domestic ratification procedure to ensure the stable stationing of American troops here ahead of the U.S. elections.

The signing came a month after the allies reached a new five-year deal on determining Seoul's share of its cost for the upkeep of the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea (USFK).

Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul and U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Philip Goldberg signed the deal, known as the Special Measures Agreement (SMA), at the foreign ministry in Seoul, officials said.

Under the 12th SMA, which will last until 2030, South Korea will pay 1.52 trillion won (US$1.19 billion) in 2026, up 8.3 percent from 1.4 trillion won in 2025.

Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul (R) and U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Philip Goldberg shake hands after signing a defense cost-sharing agreement in Seoul on Nov. 4, 2024, in this photo provided by South Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

The deal links an annual increase in Seoul's SMA contributions to the consumer price index, a shift from the existing deal tying the increase to an annual rise in South Korea's defense budget.

"The agreement signed today will be submitted to the National Assembly at the earliest date for ratification," the foreign ministry said in a release.

"The agreement is expected to greatly contribute to providing conditions for the stable stationing of the USFK and strengthening the South Korea-U.S. joint defense posture," it said.

The signing also came just days before the U.S. holds its presidential election Tuesday (U.S. time). Seoul and Washington launched the negotiations to renew the SMA in April at an earlier time than expected.

The move has been seen as Seoul intending to strike a new deal before a potential return of former U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House. Trump had demanded a hefty rise in Seoul's share to as much as $50 billion during his term, calling the ally a free-rider on U.S. military power.

During this year's campaign, Trump described South Korea as a "very wealthy" nation and a "money machine," suggesting that the U.S. could pull out its troops from South Korea if Seoul does not make more financial contributions to support them.

Since 1991, Seoul has partially shouldered costs under the SMA for Korean USFK workers; the construction of military facilities; and other logistical support.

elly@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · November 4, 2024

12. 1st N. Korean troops come under Ukrainian attack in Kursk: Ukraine official

A lot of circular reporting.

1st N. Korean troops come under Ukrainian attack in Kursk: Ukraine official | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kang Yoon-seung · November 4, 2024

SEOUL, Nov. 4 (Yonhap) -- The first batch of North Korean troops dispatched to Russia to fight in its war against Ukraine has likely already come under Ukrainian attack in the western Russian border region of Kursk, a Ukrainian official said Monday.

Ukrainian news agency RBC-Ukraine quoted Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine's Center for Countering Disinformation, as saying that the first military personnel from North Korea have become targets for Ukrainian fighters and come under fire in the region.

The report did not provide details about the North Korean soldiers' fate.

The report came as the United States has said as many as 8,000 North Korean soldiers have been deployed to Russia's western front-line region, where they are anticipated to enter combat soon.

Last Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in an interview with KBS, a South Korean broadcaster, that North Korean troops in Russia had not yet participated in combat but were preparing to do so in Kursk.

In this file photo taken Oct. 20, 2024, citizens watch a news report on North Korea's dispatch of troops to Ukraine at Seoul Station in central Seoul. (Yonhap)

colin@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kang Yoon-seung · November 4, 2024

13. Yoon says N. Korea's troop deployment to Russia 'dangerous and unprecedented'

​I would like to know what diplomatic efforts are available that could "help curb the military cooperation between Pyniogyang and Moscow?"

Will they respond to the strongest possible condemnation or a demarche? Asking for a friend.

Excerpts:

"North Korea is engaging in illegal military cooperation with Russia, which blatantly violates international law and U.N. Security Council resolutions," Yoon was quoted as saying.

"It extends beyond the transfer of military weapons to the dangerous and unprecedented act of deploying special forces," he added.

Yoon called on the Central Asian countries to make diplomatic efforts to help curb the military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow by using their communication channels with the two countries.

Yoon says N. Korea's troop deployment to Russia 'dangerous and unprecedented' | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · November 4, 2024

By Kim Eun-jung

SEOUL, Nov. 4 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol said Monday that North Korea's deployment of troops to Russia in support for its war in Ukraine is a "dangerous and unprecedented act," which should be dealt with through a united international response.

Yoon made the remark during his meeting with delegates from five Central Asian countries -- Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan -- who visited South Korea for a regional forum.

"North Korea is engaging in illegal military cooperation with Russia, which blatantly violates international law and U.N. Security Council resolutions," Yoon was quoted as saying.

"It extends beyond the transfer of military weapons to the dangerous and unprecedented act of deploying special forces," he added.

Yoon called on the Central Asian countries to make diplomatic efforts to help curb the military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow by using their communication channels with the two countries.

"The international community should unite to deal with challenges posed by Russia and North Korea, which threaten global peace and security," he said.

Yoon said South Korea will host its inaugural summit with the Central Asia nations next year to boost cooperation in the region, asking for their support.

The delegates said the independence and territorial sovereignty of all nations must be respected under international law and the U.N. Charter, and highlighted the need for dialogue and cooperation with partner countries to uphold the principle, according to the office.

President Yoon Suk Yeol speaks during a Cabinet meeting at the presidential office in Seoul on Oct. 29, 2024. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)

ejkim@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · November 4, 2024

14. S. Korean delegation to Ukraine to return home as early as Monday

I would hope they left some stay behind liaison personnel, observers/advisors. I would have.

S. Korean delegation to Ukraine to return home as early as Monday

The Korea Times · November 4, 2024

This footage posted on X by the Center for Strategic Communication and Information Security of Ukraine shows North Korean soldiers apparently receiving Russian gear, Oct. 18. Yonhap

A South Korean government delegation to Ukraine will return home as early as Monday after visiting Kyiv to discuss possible cooperation measures in response to North Korea's troop deployment to Russia, officials have said.

The delegation, consisting of senior intelligence and military officials, was visiting Ukraine after briefing the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in Brussels last week over the North's troop dispatch.

"The delegation will likely return home around Nov. 4," Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun told reporters Wednesday during his visit to Washington, D.C., for an annual meeting of defense chiefs of South Korea and the United States.

"(We) will take necessary measures in cooperation with the international community, based on reports from the group," he said.

Kim appeared to be referring to Seoul's consideration of sending a team of observers to Ukraine to monitor North Korean troops deployed in support of Russia.

On Friday, National Security Adviser Shin Won-sik told lawmakers in a parliamentary audit that such a dispatch would be essential for South Korea to understand modern warfare.

If sent, the team of observers is expected to be composed of military and intelligence personnel, and could possibly take part in analyzing North Korean combat tactics and interrogations of captured troops.

Amid growing concerns of North Korean troops possibly joining combat against Ukraine, South Korea has vowed to take "phased measures" in response to the level of military cooperation between Russia and North Korea. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · November 4, 2024

15. An Indonesian Tribe’s Language Gets an Alphabet: Korea’s

​Fascinating.  Korea is truly a global pivotal state. The Hangul alphabet does seem to be a very efficient phonetic alphabet.  

Excerpts:

In 2009, Hangul was introduced as a script for Cia-Cia after a visit by South Korean academics. Two instructors were sent from Baubau to South Korea to learn Hangul and develop a method for using it to teach Cia-Cia.

Abidin, a native Cia-Cia speaker who like many Indonesians goes by a single name, was one of them. He spent six months at Seoul National University and is considered the pioneer of transcribing Cia-Cia into Hangul.

“After I learned Hangul, I found that there are certain Cia-Cia tones and pronunciations that could be denoted by Hangul characters. It’s not exactly the same but it’s really close,” Mr. Abidin said.

“We borrow the Hangul to preserve our language. We mix and match the old and modern alphabet and that makes it uniquely Cia-Cia,” he said, referring to some Hangul characters that are rarely used in Korean these days.

Some critics have raised concerns about the use of Hangul, saying it could lead to cultural domination or distort the community’s identity. But others argue that the international mix could benefit the preservation process.

An Indonesian Tribe’s Language Gets an Alphabet: Korea’s

The Cia-Cia language has been passed down orally for centuries. Now the tribe’s children are learning to write it in Hangul, the Korean script.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/04/world/asia/indonesia-korea-hangul.html

Teaching Hangul, the Korean alphabet, to Cia-Cia children in Baubau, Indonesia. People trying to preserve the tribe’s spoken language found that the Korean script was a good fit for it.Credit...Nyimas Laula for The New York Times

By Muktita Suhartono

Reporting from Baubau, Indonesia

Nov. 4, 2024, 12:02 a.m. ET

Sign up for the Race/Related Newsletter  Join a deep and provocative exploration of race, identity and society with New York Times journalists. Get it sent to your inbox.

Excited chatter filled the classroom as the lesson began. Every desk had a paper nameplate on it with the occupant’s name written in the Korean alphabet, called Hangul. Soon, the students were following their instructor’s lead and etching the distinctive circles and lines of the script in their notebooks.

But these fourth graders were not studying the Korean language. They were using Hangul to write and learn theirs: Cia-Cia, an indigenous language that has no script. It has survived orally for centuries in Indonesia, and is now spoken by about 93,000 people in the Cia-Cia tribe on Buton Island, southeast of the peninsula of Sulawesi Island in Indonesia’s vast archipelago.

“Say, ‘ph.’ Hold a piece of paper in front of your mouth and make sure the paper moves when you pronounce it,” Deuk-young Jung, who has been teaching the alphabet here for more than a decade, told his 40 or so students at Hendea Elementary School, south of the town of Baubau.

Indonesia is home to myriad tribes and cultures, and to more than 700 native languages. It is the most linguistically diverse nation in the world after neighboring Papua New Guinea. On Buton Island alone, there are a handful of local languages and almost two dozen dialects. However, most of them are at risk of disappearing because they do not have a script.

“Language is the wealth of a community, a legacy,” said Amirul Tamim, a former mayor of Baubau who was been instrumental in efforts to preserve the Cia-Cia language. “Language shows the civilization of a tribe, and a language without its own alphabet loses its authenticity.”

Image

Deuk-young Jung has been teaching Hangul to children in Baubau for more than a decade.Credit...Nyimas Laula for The New York Times

Image

Students from fourth through sixth grade are being taught to use the Korean script for Cia-Cia.Credit...Nyimas Laula for The New York Times

Conservationists initially tried using Arabic script for Cia-Cia because the syllable-timed language, unlike Indonesia’s national language, could not be easily transliterated into the Roman alphabet. On Buton, most people speak the Wolio dialect, which has been written in the Arabic alphabet since the 1500s. But Arabic turned out to be unsuitable for Cia-Cia, which has more in common with Korean.

In 2009, Hangul was introduced as a script for Cia-Cia after a visit by South Korean academics. Two instructors were sent from Baubau to South Korea to learn Hangul and develop a method for using it to teach Cia-Cia.

Abidin, a native Cia-Cia speaker who like many Indonesians goes by a single name, was one of them. He spent six months at Seoul National University and is considered the pioneer of transcribing Cia-Cia into Hangul.

“After I learned Hangul, I found that there are certain Cia-Cia tones and pronunciations that could be denoted by Hangul characters. It’s not exactly the same but it’s really close,” Mr. Abidin said.

“We borrow the Hangul to preserve our language. We mix and match the old and modern alphabet and that makes it uniquely Cia-Cia,” he said, referring to some Hangul characters that are rarely used in Korean these days.

Some critics have raised concerns about the use of Hangul, saying it could lead to cultural domination or distort the community’s identity. But others argue that the international mix could benefit the preservation process.

Image

In the Sorawolio district of Baubau, street signs are in both Bahasa Indonesia, the national language, and Cia-Cia, using Hangul. Credit...Nyimas Laula for The New York Times

Image

Cia-Cia people selling produce from their farms at a traditional market in Baubau. Few members of the tribe use Hangul.Credit...Nyimas Laula for The New York Times

“Indonesia’s culture is diverse and resilient,” said Mr. Amirul, the former mayor. “Let us not close ourselves to the entry of other cultures. We have the means to preserve our traditional language, so why allow it to become extinct?”

Seoul National University has tried for several years to promulgate Hangul — which was developed by a Korean king, Sejong, in the 1400s — as a script for languages without a writing system. Cia-Cia has been its only success.

Even that program, under which elementary to high school students were taught Hangul, was shelved in Baubau for a decade because of a lack of teachers, among other issues. It found new momentum after a Cia-Cia dictionary was published in 2020, which uses Hangul characters and gives a translation of the word into Bahasa Indonesia, the national language.

In the Sorawolio district of Baubau today, the names of streets, schools and public facilities are displayed in the Roman and Korean alphabets. Schools have made their own textbooks, and fourth- through sixth-grade students are taught the Korean script.

“It’s easy to learn the Hangul because we are familiar with the words already as we speak it at home,” said Nurfin, 24, who once was among the top three students in her Hangul class. “I still remember some, but because I rarely use it, I have forgotten a lot.”

Image

“It is good to have a written form of the language, but more importantly to have it spoken and used in daily life,” said Djunuddin, a Cia-Cia elder.Credit...Nyimas Laula for The New York Times

Image

A traditional Cia-Cia house. Fears about the tribe’s future have prompted community elders and scholars to work together to preserve the language.Credit...Nyimas Laula for The New York Times

Cia-Cia remains largely a spoken language. Relatively few members of the tribe are conversant with Hangul. The language also faces pressure from the dominance of Bahasa.

“It is good to have a written form of the language, but more importantly to have it spoken and used in daily life,” Djunuddin, a local elder, said of Cia-Cia. “Children nowadays, they don’t speak the Cia-Cia language anymore. They are so used to using Bahasa Indonesia, only us, the older generation, still speaks it,” he said. Many native words have been lost, he said.

Fears about the tribe’s future have prompted community elders and scholars to work together to preserve the language. Native words are continually being collected and written down in Hangul, with guidance from the elders. Parents are being encouraged to speak Cia-Cia to their children at home, and folk tales are being transcribed into Hangul for the younger generation to learn.

“When a language becomes extinct, the identity, the local wisdom of that tribe will also disappear,” said La Ode Alirman, a sociologist who lives in Baubau. “By documenting our folk tales, we get to pass on our local wisdom, the history of our ancestors, our memory and tribe’s identity to the next generation for them to hold on to.”

Image

Students at a Hangul school in Baubau performing a traditional Korean dance.Credit...Nyimas Laula for The New York Times

Muktita Suhartono reports on Thailand and Indonesia. She is based in Bangkok. More about Muktita Suhartono

16. Two-thirds of Koreans oppose sending weapons to Ukraine, poll suggests

To all my friends in Korea I urge you to remember June 25, 1950 and how the international community came to Korea to help defend its freedom.

Korean military assistance could turn the tide in Ukraine and could be a greater "game changer" than north Korea's troop deployment to Putin's War.

Two-thirds of Koreans oppose sending weapons to Ukraine, poll suggests

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2024-11-04/national/defense/Twothirds-of-Koreans-oppose-sending-weapons-to-Ukraine-poll-suggests/2170086

Published: 04 Nov. 2024, 17:09

Updated: 04 Nov. 2024, 18:55

• 
  
• CHO JUNG-WOO
• cho.jungwoo1@joongang.co.kr

A screengrab shows soldiers, believed to be North Koreans, receiving basic supplies at a Russian training base in a video provided by the Ukrainian Center for Strategic Communication and Information Security, also known as Spravdi. [SCREEN CAPTURE]

Two-thirds of Koreans oppose the idea of South Korea directly providing lethal weapons to Ukraine, according to a recent survey. 

In an opinion poll commissioned by the JoongAng Ilbo, an affiliate of the Korea JoongAng Daily, and conducted by Gallup Korea, 64 percent of respondents said they were against supplying weapons to Ukraine, while 28 percent said they were in favor. Another 8 percent said they did not know or declined to respond.

Related Article

Calls are growing for Korea to aid Ukraine. Experts say it should wait.

Yoon’s approval rating drops to record low as controversies and allegations persist

South Korean delegation to return from Ukraine as Seoul readies response to North's troops in Russia

The poll was conducted ahead of President Yoon Suk Yeol reaching the halfway point of his five-year term on Sunday.

The opinion poll, conducted from Thursday to Friday, surveyed 1,011 individuals aged 18 and older. It has a confidence interval of 95 percent and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

More than half of respondents in every region opposed supplying weapons to Ukraine. 

In South Gyeongsang, including Busan and Ulsan, 57 percent were against the idea, the lowest level of opposition by region. In North Gyeongsang, which includes Daegu and is known to be largely conservative, 63 percent opposed providing weapons.

The survey follows Yoon's suggestion that South Korea could “flexibly review” the provision of lethal aid “depending on North Korea’s military activities,” despite the country's general policy of not directly supplying lethal weapons, as he said on Oct. 24.

By age, more than half of the respondents in each group, except those in their 20s, opposed sending weapons. Among individuals aged 18 to 29, 46 percent supported the idea, while 44 percent were against it. Among respondents aged 70 and older — a demographic typically supportive of the president — 55 percent opposed supplying weapons, while 34 percent were in favor.

By political alignment, 50 percent of conservatives were opposed, while 43 percent agreed. Among liberals, 81 percent opposed the weaponry provision, as did 64 percent of moderates.

Of those who supported providing weaponry, 53 percent believed that weapons should be supplied regardless of whether they were offensive or defensive.

People pass by a medical school in downtown Seoul on Wednesday. [YONHAP]

Additionally, the survey covered a separate issue regarding a proposal to revisit discussions on increasing the medical school enrollment quota from 2026. 

On this issue, 48 percent of respondents were in favor, 39 percent were opposed and 13 percent were uncertain or chose not to respond.

Among supporters of the conservative People Power Party (PPP), 64 percent agreed with the proposal, and 39 percent of supporters of the liberal Democratic Party (DP) were in favor. By region, respondents in most areas, excluding Chungcheong and Jeju, showed more support for the proposal.

The survey also asked respondents to evaluate Yoon’s performance over the past two and a half years. 

When asked about Yoon’s achievements, seven out of ten respondents either cited no specific achievements, said they did not know or refused to respond. 

Of the responses given, 6 percent credited Yoon’s diplomatic activities and policies, the highest percentage recorded for any area.

When asked about Yoon’s shortcomings, the most common response, at 19 percent, cited issues involving first lady Kim Keon Hee. The medical school quota hike followed at 7 percent, while 5 percent responded that Yoon’s overall performance was inadequate.

Priorities for the remainder of Yoons' term [NAM JUNG-HYUN]

As for priorities for the remainder of Yoon’s term, respondents highlighted several key areas: economic recovery and revitalization, at 21 percent, addressing livelihood issues and stabilizing inflation at 16 percent, strengthening national defense and security, at 5 percent, resolving the medical crisis, at 5 percent and addressing issues involving the first lady, at 5 percent. 

In terms of Kim’s role as first lady, her disapproval rating reached 84 percent, with 62 percent rating her performance as “strongly unfavorable” and 22 percent as “somewhat unfavorable.” Her approval rating stood at only 11 percent.

According to Gallup Korea, the high disapproval rating for Kim may reflect public concerns over her perceived influence, particularly following the release of a recorded phone conversation between self-proclaimed “political broker” Myung Tae-kyun and the president. 

“The presidential office’s response to the phone recording further fueled the controversy, contributing to the rise in her disapproval rating,” the polling company noted.

President Yoon Suk Yeol, left, and first lady Kim Keon Hee arrive at Seoul Air Base in Seongnam, Gyeonggi, on Oct. 6. [PRESIDENTIAL OFFICE]

Last week, the DP released a recording of a conversation between Yoon and Myung, alleging that the president and first lady had illegally influenced the PPP’s candidate nominations in the 2022 local elections. 

The presidential office issued a statement denying that Yoon had been briefed on or given orders regarding nominations.

BY KIM JEONG-JAE, OH HYUN-SEOK, CHO JUNG-WOO [cho.jungwoo1@joongang.co.kr]

17. Experts discuss how to financially prepare for unified Korea

Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt's work in this area is very important.

Time for Fresh Look at Unification Economics

By Nicholas Eberstadt

The Korea Times

August 05, 2024

https://www.aei.org/op-eds/time-for-fresh-look-at-unification-economics/

Experts discuss how to financially prepare for unified Korea

The Korea Times · November 4, 2024

Action for Korea United Co-chair Seo In-taek speaks during his welcome remarks for the seminar at the National Assembly in Seoul, Friday. Courtesy of Action for Korea United

Economic gap between 2 Koreas getting wider

By Jhoo Dong-chan

Scholars and experts in inter-Korea relations and finance assessed the economic situation of the two Koreas and discussed how to prepare for a unified Korea in light of the rapidly evolving international landscape, during a seminar, Friday.

“We are witnessing a Cold War-like division as North Korea has recently sent troops to Russia. Our vision for unification is getting difficult every moment,” Action for Korea United Co-Chair Seo In-taek said during his welcome remarks for the seminar at the National Assembly in Seoul.

“An increasing number of youngsters are not very interested in two Koreas’ unification these days. The gap between the two Koreas is getting too wide. Now, it seems almost impossible to fill it, but we still need to prepare for it,” he said during the event hosted by the civic group and supported by the Global Peace Foundation.

Nam Kwang-kyu, a professor at Korea University Asiatic Research Center, presented his study on North Korea’s recent economic situation and the cost of possible inter-Korea unification. He said that North Korea’s stance toward Seoul has been shifted, a sign that may further deepen the rift between the two Koreas.

“Pyongyang has recently sent troops to support Russia in its invasion on Ukraine. It also scrapped the terms, ‘unification’ and ‘one people,’ from its constitution while defining inter-Korea ties as relations between ‘two states hostile to each other,’” Nam said.

“The move runs counter to the unification doctrine of his predecessors, his late father Kim Jong-il and grandfather Kim Il-sung. This displays his fear of icy public sentiment and possible popular uprising.”

Nam claimed that an increasing number of Pyongyang residents are starting to demonstrate their discontent with the Kim family's three generations of hereditary leadership and are becoming more receptive to South Korean culture.

“More North Korean people are reportedly watching South Korean movies and TV shows. They are very curious on the culture,” Nam continued.

“Kim might have believed he would get some economic rewards through economic ties with the South. Now, he seems to understand he would rather lose control of the people because of South Korean culture. This is the reason he decided to more alienate his country and people from outside.”

Nam argues that Kim’s approach isn’t helpful at all to North Korea’s economy.

According to recent government data, North Korea’s current economic situation could be as bad as the Arduous March in the early 1990s when there was a famine. The country is known to annually need 5.9 million tons of food, but secured only 4.5 million in 2022.

The Bank of Korea said North Korea’s gross domestic product has decreased by about 12 percent between 2017 and 2021. During the COVID-19 pandemic, its border trade with China was halted due to border closures.

“(The) economic gap between the two Koreas is getting wider every year. Global think tanks say it requires at least $250 billion to a maximum of $2 trillion for 10 years to build a unified Korea. We need to do something,” Nam said, stressing the urgency of the matter.

“It requires not only government funding but also funding from private sector. I suggest fostering a massive financial hub here to attract financial companies in Japan and Singapore who are interested in (rebuilding North Korea). At the same time, we also need to open their door for capital injection for it.”

Lee Joo-young, senior economist at North Korean Economic Studies of the Bank of Korea Economic Research Institute, called for a more thorough study regarding the average North Korean person's financial situation during his follow-up presentation.

“North Korea’s financial institutions have not served their role properly since the Arduous March in the 1990s. Instead, 'jangmadangs,' the country’s local farmers’ black markets and bazaars, have replaced the role now,” Lee said.

“Near each jangmadang, there are ‘unofficial financial services’ provided by some loansharks who operate a cross-border network with China. I surveyed 212 North Korean defectors who fled the country between 2012 and 2018. Of them ... 27.8 percent said they have experienced the unofficial financial services there. Their average wealth was estimated at around $1,761. Almost no one replied to have had a bank account in North Korea.”

The Korea Times · November 4, 2024

18. N. Korea raises earthen mounds to block severed inter-Korean roads: S. Korean military

N. Korea raises earthen mounds to block severed inter-Korean roads: S. Korean military

The Korea Times · November 4, 2024

This picture provided by the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) shows an earthen mound and an anti-tank trench built on the Donghae Line road along the east coast, Nov. 4. Yonhap

North Korea has raised 11-meter-high earthen mounds to completely block inter-Korean roads that it blew up last month, South Korea's military said Monday, in yet another show of Pyongyang's efforts to sever ties with the South.

Around 300 to 400 personnel have each been deployed to raise the mounds just north of the sections of the western Gyeongui Line and the eastern Donghae Line the North blew up last month, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS).

On the southern edge of the mounds, the North has also built anti-tank concrete trenches that run across the remnants of the roads.

The North appears to have completed building the barriers as of Friday since beginning construction after blowing up the roads in mid-October, according to the JCS.

On Oct. 15, North Korea blew up parts of the Gyeongui and Donghae roads north of the inter-Korean border, days after its military vowed to cut off all roads and railways linked to the South and build front-line defense structures.

The JCS believes the mounds are merely for show and have no military utility.

"For North Korea's military, these are not (suitable) barriers during wartime," a JCS official told reporters on condition of anonymity. "It appears to be just for show to mark it as their territory."

The ditch built on the Donghae Line spans 160 meters and is five meters deep, while the trench on the Gyeongui Line is similar in size but is three meters deep.

The earthen mound on the Gyeongui Line measures at about 120 meters across and 50 meters from front to back, the official said, adding the North has planted trees on the mounds on the two roads.

The military also spotted North Korean personnel planting the country's flag on the hill on the Donghae Line on Friday to take pictures, the official said, adding that it has yet to detect any military activity since.

The Gyeongui Line had connected the South's western border city of Paju to the North's Kaesong, while the Donghae Line ran along the east coast.

North Korea has been wiping out traces of inter-Korean unification and reconciliation after its leader defined inter-Korean ties as those between "two states hostile to each other" at a year-end party meeting last year.

Prior to last month's explosions, the North removed street lamps and installed mines along its side of the Gyeongui and Donghae roads, while deploying troops to build apparent anti-tank barriers within its side of the Demilitarized Zone separating the two Koreas. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · November 4, 2024

19. North Korean white paper says South Korea's president has raised risk of nuclear war

Admit nothing, deny everything, make counter accusations.

Excerpts:

The document, compiled by North Korea’s Institute of Enemy State Studies and released by state news agency KCNA, criticised Yoon's "reckless remarks" about war, abandoning elements of an inter-Korean agreement, engaging in nuclear war planning with the United States, and seeking closer ties with Japan and NATO.

“Its ever-worsening military moves resulted only in the paradoxical consequences of pushing (North Korea) to stockpile its nuclear weapons at an exponential rate and further develop its nuclear attack capability,” the paper said.

North Korean white paper says South Korea's president has raised risk of nuclear war

03 Nov 2024 02:32PM

channelnewsasia.com

SEOUL: North Korean state media released a white paper on Sunday (Nov 3) accusing South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol of exposing his country to the danger of nuclear war through his policies toward the North.

The document, compiled by North Korea’s Institute of Enemy State Studies and released by state news agency KCNA, criticised Yoon's "reckless remarks" about war, abandoning elements of an inter-Korean agreement, engaging in nuclear war planning with the United States, and seeking closer ties with Japan and NATO.

“Its ever-worsening military moves resulted only in the paradoxical consequences of pushing (North Korea) to stockpile its nuclear weapons at an exponential rate and further develop its nuclear attack capability,” the paper said.

Yoon, a conservative, has taken a hard line on North Korea, which has forged ahead with developing its arsenal of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles in defiance of United Nations Security Council resolutions.

His administration blames North Korea for raising tensions with weapons tests and providing military aid and troops to aid Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Pyongyang has been taking steps to sever inter-Korean ties, redefining the South as a separate, hostile enemy state, since Kim Jong Un declared it a "primary foe" early this year and said unification was no longer possible.

North Korea blew up sections of inter-Korean roads and rail lines on its side of the heavily fortified border between the two Koreas last month, and satellite imagery shows it has since built large trenches across the former crossings.

The two Koreas are still technically at war after their 1950 to 1953 war ended in an armistice, not a peace treaty.

The two Koreas have also clashed over balloons of trash floated since May from North Korea. Pyongyang has said the launches are a response to balloons sent by anti-regime activists in the South.

Sunday’s white paper also listed Yoon’s domestic political woes, including scandals involving his wife, which have driven his approval ratings to record lows.

Meanwhile, the United States on Sunday deployed B-1B bombers for joint aerial drills with South Korea and Japan, in response to North Korea's recent launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile, according to South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff.

The military exercise showed the three countries' strong commitment to responding to the North's nuclear and missile threats through cooperation, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement.

This is the second time this year that the three countries conducted joint air drills and the fourth time in 2024 that the United States deployed its strategic bombers on the Korean peninsula, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said.

Source: Reuters/mi

channelnewsasia.com

20. Coffee with a view of… North Korea? Starbucks eyes border observatory opening.

I will go back and visit this observatory again just to have coffee now.

Coffee with a view of… North Korea? Starbucks eyes border observatory opening.

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2024-11-04/business/industry/Coffee-with-a-view-of-North-Korea-Starbucks-eyes-border-observatory-opening/2169501

Published: 04 Nov. 2024, 10:22

Updated: 04 Nov. 2024, 19:54

• 
  
• KIM JU-YEON
• kim.juyeon2@joongang.co.kr

North Korea's Kijong-dong Seonjeon Village as seen from Aegibong, a peak in Gimpo, Gyeonggi, on Feb. 24 [NEWS1]

Care for a cup of coffee with a view of North Korea? Starbucks Korea will reportedly open a branch at an observatory in Gimpo, Gyeonggi, just 1.4 kilometers (0.9 miles) from the border dividing the two Koreas. 

The coffee chain’s new location will be on the second floor of the Jogang Observatory in Aegibong Peace Eco Park, according to local reports on Oct. 30. Starbucks is set to open the store on Nov. 27 and has secured rights to operate it until 2028.

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The store will span 136 square meters (1,464 square feet) and offer around 10 seats, according to a source cited by the Chosun Ilbo. The windows in the shop will provide views into North Korea.

Map of key facilities in Aegibong Peace Ecological Park [AEGIBONG PEACE ECOPARK]

The Jogang Observatory is located on Aegibong, a peak 154 meters (505 feet) above sea level near the intersection of the Han and Imjin Rivers, which merge into the Jo River and flow to the Yellow Sea. It offers a view into Kaepung County, North Korea.

The observatory is surrounded by the Aegibong Peace Eco Park, situated on the Korean demilitarized zone, known for its environmental preservation and as a breeding ground for endangered species due to strict restrictions on civilian entry. The site was previously a military base, known as Hill 154, over which the two Koreas fought during the Korean War.

Visitors must be screened by the military before entering the park. 

The Aegibong Peace EcoPark in Gimpo, Gyeonggi, lights up in the shape of a Christmas tree on Christmas Eve in 2023. [NEWS1]

Starbucks will reportedly sell drinks and merchandise exclusive to the Aegibong store, including items like a cup featuring the peak. The Gimpo government plans to increase the number of buses traveling from the Marine Corps checkpoint to the park.

BY KIM JU-YEON [kim.juyeon2@joongang.co.kr]

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com