Another rough month for Hawaii hotels -- arrivals, spending and hotel performance down similar to September. Maui is still suffering.

Arrivals and Spending – Month of October

Arrivals for the state were up 5%, with Oahu was up 2%, Maui up 34% (compared to post wildfire data) Kauai was down 4% and Hawaii Island was down 2%. Expenditures were up 8% on Oahu and 6% on Hawaii Island but inexplicably down 14% on Kauai.

Arrivals and Spending – Year-to-Date

Arrivals are up 4% YTD on Oahu, but down 4% on Kauai and 3% on Hawaii Island and 10% on Maui. Expenditures were up 3% on Oahu, 4% on Kauai and 7% on Hawaii Island but down 14% on Maui.

Air Seats – October

Demand has dropped more than airlines cut back on seats in October. Honolulu was flat, Lihue was up 8% and Kona was down 9%. International seats were up 6% because seats from Japan increased by 16%.

Air Seats – Outlook

Looking at the next three months, the state should have 4% more seats than a year ago with Honolulu up 5%, Lihue up 10% and Kona flat. Maui is running nearly 20% below 2019 and 2022. The good news for our industry is that except for Maui the airlines are providing plenty of seats. The bad news is that they can quickly pull those back if the demand continues to falter as it did in September and October. International seats are forecast to be down 5% as Japan’s growth in seats slowed. Seats from Japan are forecast to be down 13% compared to last January.

Hotel Performance – Month of October

Total revenue was down 12% for the month of October. Maui county led the way with a 25% drop with the Lahaina/Ka’anapali/Kapalua market down 35%. Oahu did the best with a 4% drop, while Hawaii Island was down 9% and Kauai was down 6%.

Hotel Performance – Year-to-Date

For the year-to-date 2024, RevPAR was down 5% driven mostly by rate declines. Oahu is still up 2% for the year despite the poor performance the last two months. Hawaii Island was down 2% and the island of Kauai is flat. The neighbor islands all have lower occupancy than in 2023. Maui is still suffering with room revenue down year to date by 22% compared with 2022 (before the wildfires).

Investment Market Happenings

While the sale of existing hotels is slow, there is more activity in the hotel development site market. We are involved in three acquisitions in various stages including the sale of a 25-acre parcel in Poipu entitled for hotel or resort residential development.