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Quotes of the Day:
“Practically all writers and artists are aware of their destiny and see themselves as actors in a fateful drama. With me, nothing is momentous: obscure youth, glorious old age, fateful coincidences — nothing really matters. I have written a number of good sentences. I have kept free of delusions. I know I am going to die soon.”
– Eric Hoffer
"Don't be ashamed of needing help. You have a duty to fulfill just like a s soldier on the wall of battle. So what if you are injured and can't climb up without another solider's help."
– Marcus Aurelius
"A creative man is motivated by the desire to achieve, not by the desire to beat others."
– Ayn Rand
1. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 20, 2024 (with analysis of Putin's trip to nK)
2. Putin's Ministers Ejected From N. Korean Negotiation Room for Entering Before Kim Jong Un
3. Commentary: Putin-Kim meeting generates surprising agreement about China in South Korea
4. South Korea will consider supplying arms to Ukraine after Russia and North Korea sign strategic pact
5. Kim-Putin agreement: Real military alliance or paper partnership?
6. North Korean troops could join Putin's invasion of Ukraine under a new pact with Russia, experts warned - as Kim Jong Un welcomed his despot to Pyongyang
7. New commander takes charge of 2nd ID at ceremony in South Korea
8. Could CIA Sabotage North Korean Arm Shipments to Russia?
9. The New Russia-North Korea Security Alliance
10. 'We haven't seen a threat like this since WWII,' Gen. Keane warns
11. Putin Shocks the World With Defense Treaty with Pariah Kim
12. South Korean giant Hanwha agrees to acquire Philly Shipyard for $100M
13. N. Korean defectors send anti-Pyongyang leaflets again to N. Korea
14. N. Korea, Russia agree to offer military assistance 'without delay' if either is attacked: KCNA
15. New Russia-N.K. treaty signals united front against anti-Pyongyang sanctions
16. Kim-Putin treaty underlines both deeper security guarantees, shared weaknesses
17. Readout of Senior Defense Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs Leader's Trip to Adaptive Shield Exercise, Republic of Korea and Japan
18. A Tale of Three Triangles: The Complicated Geopolitics of Northeast Asia
19. North Korea building border ‘wall’, satellite images reveal
1. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 20, 2024 (with analysis of Putin's trip to nK)
I'm adding this to the Korean news because it includes analysis of the Putin visit to north Korea. Please go to the link to read the complete analysis. Key points below.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 20, 2024
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-20-2024
Key Takeaways:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a major information operation during his recent visit to North Korea and Vietnam on June 18 and 19 aimed at sabotaging efforts by Ukraine's partners to clearly define a common strategic objective and strategy to decisively defeat Russia’s illegal war of conquest in Ukraine.
- Putin implicitly threatened to use nuclear weapons if the West enables Ukraine to decisively defeat Russia in order to undermine the international community's cohering strategic vision of support for Ukraine.
- Putin’s nuclear threat is part of an ongoing Kremlin nuclear blackmail campaign aimed at dissuading Ukraine’s allies from decisively committing to defeating Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and is therefore highly unlikely to result in actual nuclear escalation.
- South Korea responded to the Russian-North Korean comprehensive strategic partnership agreement on June 20 and stated that it will reconsider its previous ban on sending lethal military assistance to Ukraine.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin simultaneously attempted to downplay aspects of the Russia-North Korea agreement potentially in response to South Korea's concerns during a June 20 press conference in Vietnam.
- Putin also met with Vietnamese President Tô Lâm, Vietnamese Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính, and General Secretary of the Central Committee of Vietnam’s Community Party Nguyễn Phú Trọng during his visit and discussed bilateral relations and the Soviet Union's and Russia's support of Vietnam during the 20th and 21st centuries.
- Russian forces used the new FAB-3000 M-54 bomb with a unified planning and correction module (UMPC) to strike Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv Oblast for the first time, representing a new Russian capability with a high potential for destruction if Russian forces continue to be able to use such weapons uninhibited.
- The United States made a policy change to prioritize delivering Patriot air defense interceptors to Ukraine against the backdrop of the increasing threat of Russian guided glide bomb use in Ukraine.
- US policy still prohibits Ukrainian forces from striking military targets with US-provided weapons in the operational and deep rear of Russian territory.
- The Russian military's increased over-reliance on infantry-heavy frontal assault tactics has greatly degraded the distinctions between various Russian combat services on the battlefield in Ukraine, minimizing the operational efficacy of frontline troops.
- Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov used a working visit to the Eastern Military District in Vladivostok, Primorsky Krai to create the appearance of a strict but engaged defense minister.
- Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes against at least two oil facilities in Russia on the night of June 19 to 20.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
- Russian milbloggers complained that the Russian military command is failing to properly incentivize Russian servicemen to fight and explain the purpose of the Russian full-scale invasion to its troops.
2. Putin's Ministers Ejected From N. Korean Negotiation Room for Entering Before Kim Jong Un
Those protocol people wield a lot of power in any government! Never violate the protocol rules.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/06/19/putins-ministers-ejected-from-n-korean-negotiation-room-for-entering-before-kim-jong-un-a85466
Updated: 20 hours ago
Russian-North Korean negotiatons in Pyongyang.
kremlin.ru
Russian ministers accompanying President Vladimir Putin on his visit to Pyongyang on Wednesday were forced to leave the negotiation room by a North Korean official who appeared to be angered that they had entered before leader Kim Jong Un.
The incident took place during the live broadcast of Putin’s visit by North Korean state media.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the first to enter the room, can be seen sitting at the negotiation table and complaining that he had gotten dirty with something. First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov and Deputy Prime Minister Vitaly Savelyev then sit next to him.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, Health Minister Mikhail Murashko and Roscosmos head Yuri Borisov are also seen entering the room.
“Stop,” a North Korean official off-screen can be heard telling them.
A representative of the Russian delegation asks in response: “Why did we come in, then?”
“No, we have a protocol,” the North Korean official says in Russian. “We invite you to the table. Our leaders will join us shortly.”
“You should have warned us right away,” the Russian representative says. “First, you tell us to run...”
The broadcast abruptly cuts to footage of the now-empty conference room where Putin and Kim would later lead bilateral negotiations.
Following these talks, Russia and North Korea signed a strategic treaty — which includes a mutual defense clause — that Putin hailed as a “breakthrough.”
Putin said Russia “does not rule out military-technical cooperation with the DPRK in connection with the treaty that was signed today,” referring to North Korea by its official name.
Kim called Putin the “dearest friend of the Korean people” and said his country "expresses full support and solidarity to the Russian government" over the war in Ukraine, which has triggered rafts of UN sanctions on Moscow.
Putin, in turn, thanked his host Kim — whose country has been under a UN sanctions regime since 2006 over his banned weapons programs — saying Moscow appreciated the “consistent and unwavering” support and calling for a review of the UN sanctions regime that bans weapons supplies and purchases to and from Pyongyang.
AFP contributed reporting.
3. Commentary: Putin-Kim meeting generates surprising agreement about China in South Korea
I was at a round table yesterday. I heard similar comments from Korea watchers, i.e., that there is an opportunity for South Korea to engage China due to the Putin-Kim "alliance." Also, some Korean hands speculate that there is also an opportunity to engage China over north Korea due to the Putin-Kim "alliance."
Commentary: Putin-Kim meeting generates surprising agreement about China in South Korea
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/putin-kim-russia-north-korea-south-china-threat-4426231
The meeting between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea's Kim Jong Un has generated less concern in South Korea than internationally – and a surprising consensus about China, say Erik Mobrand from Seoul National University and Hyejin Kim from National University of Singapore.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un arrive for a gala concert in Pyongyang, North Korea, Jun 19, 2024. (File Photo: Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Pool via Reuters)
Erik Mobrand
Hyejin Kim
21 Jun 2024 04:07PM
(Updated: 21 Jun 2024 06:09PM)
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SEOUL: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to North Korea this week has grabbed headlines in international media, as a step toward consolidating an authoritarian bloc against a Western democratic grouping.
But the view from South Korea is more nuanced than international coverage might have us think.
After all, while Mr Putin was lavishly welcomed by Kim Jong Un on Wednesday (Jun 19), President Yoon Suk Yeol was announcing a national emergency - over low birth rates, not defence or foreign relations.
The meeting was not exactly a huge cause for concern in South Korea. Both progressive and conservative voices in local media have concurred that there are factors tempering worry.
For the conservative paper Donga Ilbo, this friendship between “gangster states” cannot last long. The warm relations are for present convenience, offering support to Moscow’s war campaign in exchange for much-needed international business for Pyongyang; the prospects for enduring friendship are dim.
Another report noted general agreement among experts that there was "almost no possibility that, for the sake of the war in Ukraine, Russia selects North Korea and cuts diplomatic ties with South Korea". The trade volume between South Korea and Russia in 2023 stood at 500 times that between North Korea and Russia. In other words, economic interdependence gives Seoul the trump card in dealing with Moscow.
SURPRISING CONSENSUS ON CHINA ENGAGEMENT
That said, Seoul will not and should not take its eye off the Putin-Kim relationship.
A first concern is about security obligations between North Korea and Russia. The two countries signed a mutual support agreement on Wednesday, that might oblige them to come to each other’s defence in the event of war. It is this point that gives concern in South Korea, especially to progressives, as it would entwine Korean peninsula matters in wider conflicts.
A second concern is that Russia could share weapons technology with North Korea. For example, the transfer of missile technologies could allow North Korean long-range missiles fitted with nuclear warheads to reach the continental United States. This point, made by conservative voices, is a call for American support.
What should Seoul do in response? Here, there is a surprisingly high degree of agreement across South Korean perspectives.
While stressing the US alliance as the core of any response, there is something of a consensus on the next priority as well. Progressives and conservatives agree that South Korea’s diplomacy toward China is crucial.
The current conservative government has distanced the country from China, at least in speeches. The tone this week from voices that normally support the Yoon administration is different, calling for more strategic communications with China to remind it that tight partnership between Russia and North Korea could be destabilising in the region.
There is a historic precedent here. When tension on the peninsula boiled over in 1950, and with Soviet support for Pyongyang’s invasion of the South, China eventually found itself pressured to intervene in a major military confrontation. South Korea knows that leaders in Beijing will not be relishing the idea of Moscow causing instability in its backyard.
SEOUL PLAYS DIPLOMATIC GAME WITH PRAGMATISM
The emphasis on China - across the political spectrum - reflects the pragmatism in South Korea’s external engagement today. The story told increasingly from Washington of an “us” and “them” world sits awkwardly in Seoul, even if the president and foreign ministry mimic that language from time to time.
For decades now, South Korea has enmeshed itself in economic and diplomatic ties around the world. Under the liberal world order, that was the game and Seoul played it well. The treaty alliance with the United States is a foundation of South Korean security, but it has not been taken as a determinant of who the East Asian nation’s friends and partners would be.
This view has been seen in South Korea’s response to Russian military aggression in Ukraine. Unlike in Europe and in North America, in South Korea Russia’s war in Ukraine is not treated by all as a threat to global democracy.
An interest in maintaining trade relations with Russia has been one basis for this view. Another argument is that this war is not Korea’s: Getting involved can feel like being pushed around by Americans and ceding yet more control over foreign relations.
Seoul has sent non-lethal equipment and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine but has so far not broken its policy against supplying weapons to an active military confrontation. On Thursday, South Korea said it would reconsider providing weapons.
A MISSED OPPORTUNITY
In this view, Mr Putin’s visit reflects a missed opportunity, for South Korea, for North Korea, and for the wider region. If only Washington and Seoul had worked a bit harder to foster dialogue with Pyongyang, then perhaps the overture from Moscow would not have been the international opening for Mr Kim.
In Seoul, there is disappointment at the Russian visit to Pyongyang even if the diagnoses differ. Some lay blame at the feet of the North Korean leadership and its partners. Others see the causes as more complex, with American and South Korean leaders also called out for taking antagonising postures that foster a charged, ideological and Cold War-like tension.
But indignation is not the overwhelming reaction in South Korea. The views are subtler and call for caution in deciding Seoul’s next moves.
For better or worse, South Koreans are not on a crusade.
Erik Mobrand is Professor of Korean Studies at the Graduate School of International Studies, Seoul National University. Hyejin Kim is Senior Lecturer of political science at the National University of Singapore.
4. South Korea will consider supplying arms to Ukraine after Russia and North Korea sign strategic pact
As it should.
Because it is a global pivotal state.
Because it is a partner in the arsenal of democracy.
Because it supports the rules based international order.
Because it is in South Korea's interests to stand up for a free and democratic nation that is under attack from a despotic regime.
South Korea will consider supplying arms to Ukraine after Russia and North Korea sign strategic pact
BY KIM TONG-HYUNG
Updated 9:21 PM EDT, June 20, 2024
AP · June 20, 2024
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — South Korea said Thursday that it would consider sending arms to Ukraine, a major policy change that was suggested after Russia and North Korea rattled the region and beyond by signing a pact to come to each other’s defense in the event of war.
The comments from a senior presidential official came hours after North Korea’s state media released the details of the agreement, which observers said could mark the strongest connection between Moscow and Pyongyang since the end of the Cold War. It comes at a time when Russia faces growing isolation over the war in Ukraine and both countries face escalating standoffs with the West.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un pose for a photo during a signing ceremony of the new partnership in Pyongyang, North Korea, on Wednesday, June 19, 2024. (Kristina Kormilitsyna, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)
According to the text of the deal published by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency, or KCNA, if either country gets invaded and is pushed into a state of war, the other must deploy “all means at its disposal without delay” to provide “military and other assistance.” But the agreement also says that such actions must be in accordance with the laws of both countries and Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, which recognizes a U.N. member state’s right to self-defense.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the pact at a summit Wednesday in Pyongyang. Both described it as a major upgrade of bilateral relations, covering security, trade, investment, cultural and humanitarian ties.
The office of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol issued a statement condemning the agreement, calling it a threat to his country’s security and a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions, and warned that it would have negative consequences on Seoul’s relations with Moscow.
“It’s absurd that two parties with a history of launching wars of invasion — the Korean War and the war in Ukraine — are now vowing mutual military cooperation on the premise of a preemptive attack by the international community that will never happen,” Yoon’s office said.
At the United Nations in New York, South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul called it “deplorable” that Russia would act in violation of multiple U.N. sanctions resolutions against North Korea that Moscow voted for.
In this photo provided Thursday, June 20, 2024, by the North Korean government, Russian President Vladimir Putin, center, and North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un, center left, review an honor guard during the official welcome ceremony in the Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang, North Korea, Wednesday, June 19. The content of this image is as provided and cannot be independently verified. Korean language watermark on image as provided by source reads: “KCNA” which is the abbreviation for Korean Central News Agency. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP)
Yoon’s national security adviser, Chang Ho-jin, said that Seoul would reconsider the issue of providing arms to Ukraine to help the country fight off Russia’s full-scale invasion.
South Korea, a growing arms exporter with a well-equipped military backed by the United States, has provided humanitarian aid and other support to Ukraine, while joining U.S.-led economic sanctions against Moscow. But it hasn’t directly provided arms to Kyiv, citing a longstanding policy of not supplying weapons to countries actively engaged in conflict.
Speaking to reporters in Hanoi, where he traveled after Pyongyang, Putin said Thursday that supplying weapons to Ukraine would be “a very big mistake” on South Korea’s part. If that happens, Putin said that it would lead to “decisions that are unlikely to please the current leadership of South Korea.”
He said that South Korea “shouldn’t worry” about the agreement, if Seoul isn’t planning any aggression against Pyongyang.
Asked whether Ukrainian strikes on Russian regions with Western-supplied weapons could be considered an act of aggression, Putin said that “it needs to be additionally studied, but it’s close to it,” and that Moscow isn’t ruling out supplying weapons to North Korea in response.
A number of NATO allies, including the United States and Germany, recently authorized Ukraine to hit some targets on Russian soil with the long-range weapons they are supplying to Kyiv. Earlier this month, a Western official and a U.S. senator said that Ukraine has used American weapons to strike inside Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, center, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un, right, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, left, attend a gala concert in Pyongyang, North Korea, on Wednesday, June 19, 2024. (Gavriil Grigorov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)
Putin has said in response that Moscow “reserves the right” to arm Western adversaries, and reiterated that notion on Thursday.
“I said, including in Pyongyang, that in this case we reserve the right to supply weapons to other regions of the world,” he said. “Keeping in mind our agreements with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, I’m not ruling that out.”
The summit between Kim and Putin came as the U.S. and its allies expressed growing concern over a possible arms arrangement in which Pyongyang provides Moscow with badly needed munitions for the war in Ukraine, in exchange for economic assistance and technology transfers that could enhance the threat posed by Kim’s nuclear weapons and missile program.
Following their summit, Kim said the two countries had a “fiery friendship,” and that the deal was their “strongest-ever treaty,” putting the relationship at the level of an alliance. He vowed full support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Putin called it a “breakthrough document,” reflecting shared desires to move relations to a higher level.
North Korea and the former Soviet Union signed a treaty in 1961, which experts say necessitated Moscow’s military intervention if the North came under attack. The deal was discarded after the collapse of the USSR, replaced by one in 2000 that offered weaker security assurances.
There’s ongoing debate on how strong of a security commitment the deal entails. While some analysts see the agreement as a full restoration of the countries’ Cold War-era alliance, others say the deal seems more symbolic than substantial.
Ankit Panda, a senior analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that the text appeared to be carefully worded as to not imply automatic military intervention.
But “the big picture here is that both sides are willing to put down on paper, and show the world, just how widely they intend to expand the scope of their cooperation,” he said.
North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un stands during the departure ceremony of Russian President Vladimir Putin at an international airport outside Pyongyang, North Korea, on Wednesday, June 19, 2024. (Gavriil Grigorov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)
The deal was made as Putin visited North Korea for the first time in nearly a quarter-century, a trip that showcased their personal and geopolitical ties. Kim hugged Putin twice at the airport, their motorcade rolling past giant Russian flags and Putin portraits, before a welcoming ceremony at Pyongyang’s main square attended by what appeared to be tens of thousands of spectators.
According to KCNA, the agreement also states that Pyongyang and Moscow must not enter into agreements with third parties, if they infringe on the “core interests” of any of them and mustn’t participate in actions that threaten those interests.
KCNA said that the agreement requires the countries to take steps to prepare joint measures for the purpose of strengthening their defense capabilities to prevent war and protect regional and global peace and security. The agency didn’t specify what those steps are, or whether they would include combined military training and other cooperation.
The agreement also calls for the countries to actively cooperate in efforts to establish a “just and multipolar new world order,” KCNA said, underscoring how the countries are aligning in face of their separate confrontations with the United States.
How the pact affects Russia’s relations with South Korea is a key development to watch, said Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington and director of the North Korea-focused 38 North website.
“Seoul had already signed onto sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, souring its relations with Moscow. Now with any ambiguity of Russia’s partnership with North Korea removed, how will Seoul respond?” she said. “Is there a point where it decides to cut or suspend diplomatic ties with Russia or expel its ambassador? And have we reached it?”
Kim has made Russia his priority in recent months as he pushes a foreign policy aimed at expanding relations with countries confronting Washington, embracing the idea of a “new Cold War” and trying to display a united front in Putin’s broader conflicts with the West.
Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are at their highest point in years, with the pace of both Kim’s weapons tests, and combined military exercises involving the U.S., South Korea and Japan intensifying in a tit-for-tat cycle.
The Koreas also have engaged in Cold War-style psychological warfare that involved North Korea dropping tons of trash on South Korea with balloons, and Seoul broadcasting anti-North Korean propaganda with its loudspeakers.
___
Edith M. Lederer contributed to this report from the United Nations.
AP · June 20, 2024
5. Kim-Putin agreement: Real military alliance or paper partnership?
Of course interoperability is not really necessary when the common military employment concept is feeding troops into the meat grinder.
Kim-Putin agreement: Real military alliance or paper partnership?
Procurement already in play, but military interoperability does not yet exist
washingtontimes.com · by Andrew Salmon
Premium
By - The Washington Times - Thursday, June 20, 2024
SEOUL, South Korea — The flag-waving optics of this week’s historic meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un have given way to a key question: Is the “comprehensive strategic partnership” signed by the two men the start of a true bilateral military partnership?
The full text of the agreement was made public Thursday by the North Korean Central News Agency and summarized by Russian media, including the state-run TASS news agency. The most important passage is a deal for one country to aid the other in the case of a military attack.
Speculation in some foreign policy circles suggests the pact may be little more than a paper treaty.
Experts say one key element of any alliance, the exchange of military equipment, is already in play, but the two countries’ armed forces do not yet have the capability to operate jointly.
Experience suggests North Korea may be wary of tight military-to-military ties with Russia after foreign-influenced challenges to the power of Mr. Kim’s father, Kim Jong-il, and grandfather Kim Il-sung.
Whether North Korea and Russia plan to adopt actual joint military capabilities should become clear in the coming weeks and months, experts say.
Inside the summit
The Washington Times learned this week that Mr. Putin’s deliberate late arrival in Pyongyang threw off some of Mr. Kim’s greeting plans while asserting Mr. Putin’s perceived precedence in the relationship.
Sources said Mr. Kim appeared uncomfortable during the joint press conference with the KGB-trained, poker-faced Mr. Putin.
The sources said Mr. Kim was glancing at his sister and close aide, Kim Yo Jong, as if uneasy with the agreement.
Reports noted the difference in language used by Mr. Putin and Mr. Kim. Mr. Kim hailed the agreement as an “alliance,” but Mr. Putin did not use that term.
The statement contains 23 clauses. It commits the two parties to upgrade economic interaction and cooperate in areas such as illegal immigration and mass media. Both signatories agree to cooperate in artificial intelligence, nuclear energy and space exploration — all with military and peaceful applications.
The standout clause includes the wording: “If one of the parties finds itself at war due to an armed attack by one or more [countries], the other party will immediately provide it with military assistance by all means at its disposal.”
The addition of the phrase “by all means at its disposal” could be an out.
“The idea is that this is a defense treaty, but many big powers don’t want to make an unconditional commitment,” said Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Seoul’s Kookmin University. “This is a conditional commitment.”
Other analysts were equally hesitant.
“I don’t know if this is a game changer,” said Chun In-bum, a retired South Korean general. “But the potential and possibility of all this, military cooperation, technical cooperation, is all bad news.”
What is clear is that since late last year, North Korea has been providing significant military assistance to Russia, now in its third year of a war against Ukraine.
South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik told Bloomberg last week that North Korea has sent at least 10,000 shipping containers to Russia, enough to hold 4.8 million shells. In return, Russia has given North Korea military technologies, the minister said.
Can Russia and North Korea operate as actual allies?
Beyond procurement, a key issue for any alliance is joint operational ability. The current state of affairs suggests that Russia would not be able to call on North Korean troops should the Ukraine war turn against it.
“If you look at the reports from Ukraine about the Chechen mercenaries, they had fought with the Russian military before, but dragging North Korean regiments to fight on the far side of the planet? No way,” said Lance Gatling, a retired U.S. military officer.
In modern warfare, interoperability means creating joint command structures and cross-linguistic communications over radio and online nets. It also entails the complex task of synchronizing the electronics suites of multiple modern arms, including ground radars, air-launched missiles and warship defense systems.
If the Russian and North Korean militaries deepen their cooperation, the signs will show.
“Part of dealing with an ally is finding out the true capabilities they have. Not what they show on parade but what they can actually field,” said Mr. Gatling, who spent much of his career building bridges between the U.S. and Japanese militaries. “An initial intermediary step is to exchange liaison officers.”
From that flows information and intelligence exchanges, leading to troop exchanges.
“In any burgeoning military relationship are all sorts of low-level cross-border exchanges: rifle shooting, sending cadets to each other’s schools, training with the airborne and getting wings. This happens at multiple levels,” Mr. Gatling said. “What you want to be known is cheap and visible: nice young men with straight teeth who can do a lot of pushups.”
After troop exchanges come joint exercises.
“Military drills won’t happen overnight,” said Mr. Chun. “These take at least a year to plan, though it depends on scale. They can do tabletops and things like that, but it would take some time to do a sizable exercise.”
The U.S. has multiple treaty partners, and most of its postwar conflicts, including Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, have been conducted alongside multinational forces, granting the Pentagon extensive alliance management experience.
Neither party to the Pyongyang agreement can say the same.
The Kremlin’s post-Soviet conflicts in Chechnya, Georgia and Ukraine have been Russian-only affairs. Its intervention in the Syrian civil war is the lone exception.
Pyongyang’s military is even more isolated. The regime shows dangerous suspicions toward troops infected by overseas military contacts.
In 1991 and 1992, North Korean officers recalled from their study at Russia’s elite Frunze Military Academy are thought to have fermented a coup against second-generation North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. The plot was crushed with extreme brutality.
In 1958, Chinese troops who had defended North Korea during the Korean War left. Their departures followed a 1956 purge by state founder Kim Il-sung of senior officers aligned with China. Most fled into exile.
Today, China and North Korea maintain a formal mutual defense treaty, but their two militaries have no known contacts.
“Everyone is jumping on the North Korea-Russia treaty, but China has the same,” said Mr. Lankov. “Do you see Chinese officers hanging around Pyongyang?”
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.
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6. North Korean troops could join Putin's invasion of Ukraine under a new pact with Russia, experts warned - as Kim Jong Un welcomed his despot to Pyongyang
Realy? I have seen no evidence of this.
Would Kim really consider this? Could he afford to sacrifice his troops and worse could he afford to expose their incompetence and poor level of training? How would he spin it when the nKPA is chewed up by Ukrainian forces?
North Korean troops could join Putin's invasion of Ukraine under a new pact with Russia, experts warned - as Kim Jong Un welcomed his despot to Pyongyang
PUBLISHED: 19:06 EDT, 19 June 2024 | UPDATED: 20:16 EDT, 19 June 2024
Daily Mail · by Mark Nicol · June 20, 2024
Troops from North Korea could join the invasion of Ukraine under a new pact with Russia, experts warned last night.
The chilling prospect of waves of Kim Jong Un's military flooding into the battered nation emerged after the dictator signed a defence agreement with Vladimir Putin in Pyongyang yesterday.
The Russian president was on a two-day state visit to North Korea, where he was greeted enthusiastically by tens of thousands of well-wishers.
During events yesterday, the two despots embraced and – according to North Korea state media – shared 'pent-up innermost thoughts' as they were driven to the Kumsusan state guest house.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un pose for a photo after the official welcome ceremony in Pyongyang
The Russian president was on a two-day state visit to North Korea, where he was greeted enthusiastically by tens of thousands of well-wishers
Footage of Putin's welcome ceremony in Pyongyang showed an honour guard and a crowd of civilians gathered in the Kim Il Sung Square by the Taedong River
Footage of Putin's welcome ceremony in Pyongyang showed an honour guard and a crowd of civilians gathered in the Kim Il Sung Square by the Taedong River.
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Children waved balloons in celebration and the square was adorned with huge portraits of the two leaders and their national flags. Streets of the city were lined with images of Putin, and the facade of the unfinished Ryugyong Hotel was emblazoned with the message: 'Welcome Putin'.
Analysts agree that the arrival of thousands of Kim's soldiers on Russia's front line would be a game-changer in the conflict, significantly strengthening the Kremlin's hand. North Korea is also expected to supply Russia with a further five million ammunition rounds – having already supplied as much in recent months.
Last night, former British Army intelligence expert Philip Ingram said: 'I do think North Korea probably will supply troops as part of the new defence pact. This is very worrying. They will add numbers but how adaptable they will prove on the battlefield remains to be seen.
After suffering some 500,000 casualties in Ukraine, Russia needs to bolster its front-line forces
Analysts agree that the arrival of thousands of Kim's soldiers on Russia's front line would be a game-changer in the conflict
North Korea is also expected to supply Russia with a further five million ammunition rounds – having already supplied as much in recent months
'Russia's tactics have been so primitive, sacrificing vast numbers of soldiers in the so-called 'meat grinder'. The Kremlin is probably more interested in quantity of personnel rather than quality.' Meanwhile, ex-British Army commander Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon suggested Kim could exchange soldiers for nuclear technology.
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BREAKING NEWS
Thousands of cheering North Koreans line the streets as Putin begins state visit
He said: 'It would show how absolutely desperate they both are; Putin for troops and Kim for knowledge.' North Korea's People's Army is believed to consist of up to 1.3million active personnel. The majority are engaged in the country's historic stand-off with South Korea.
After suffering some 500,000 casualties in Ukraine, Russia needs to bolster its front-line forces. The arrival of North Korean troops would further reduce Ukraine's chances of reclaiming its eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk, which have been held by Russia since early 2022.
Putin and Kim's pact includes a joint obligation to intervene on each other's part in any conflict. This could see Russia supporting North Korea against South Korea. With no formal text being made public, however, its implications remain open to interpretation. Kim told reporters the country would respond 'without hesitation' to threats facing North Korea or Russia.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un attend an official welcoming ceremony at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang
North Korean military officers march during a welcoming ceremony, on June 19
Kim added that the new treaty would help create a 'new multi-polar world' and described his nation's support for Russia as 'unconditional'. Putin said the countries would provide 'mutual help' in the event of 'aggression' towards one another.
North Korea is already heavily sanctioned by the West over its attempts to develop nuclear weapons, so it has little to lose by supporting Russia's invasion.
Last night, Putin flew to Vietnam, a Communist-ruled country, where he is scheduled to meet leaders today.
n OUTGOING Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte is expected to become Nato's next secretary general after Hungary withdrew its objection to his selection.
Nato agreed to a request by Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orban for Hungary to be excluded from a Ukrainian support package – an agreement which Rutte has agreed to honour if selected.
Daily Mail · by Mark Nicol · June 20, 2024
7. New commander takes charge of 2nd ID at ceremony in South Korea
I am personally feeling pretty old this morning when I read this. These guys are young. :-)
Seriously,
Excerpts:
“It is apparent after only spending a little time in theater that our secret power and secret sauce is the combined nature and these incredible [South Korean] soldiers that are part of this division,” Lombardo said outside the 2nd ID headquarters.
The former armor officer said he noticed three distinct characteristics in U.S. soldiers who served in Korea: enforcing high standards, a mastery in fundamentals and “lethality.”
...
Taylor described his time as 2nd ID’s commander and his five years serving in South Korea so far as “extremely important and special.”
“Just know that serving here in Korea as part of the greatest alliance is truly an amazing opportunity,” Taylor said in a speech. “We have a real mission that brings us all together with a common purpose for good.”
New commander takes charge of 2nd ID at ceremony in South Korea
Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · June 21, 2024
Maj. Gen. Charles Lombardo, incoming 2nd Infantry Division commander, speaks during a change of command ceremony outside the 2nd Infantry Division Headquarters at Camp Humphreys, South Korea, on June 21, 2024. (Luis Garcia/Stars and Stripes)
CAMP HUMPHREYS, South Korea — The new commander of the Army’s only division that includes foreign troops said Friday he is honored to serve alongside “one of the greatest armies and the U.S.’s staunchest ally.”
Maj. Gen. Charles Lombardo while taking charge of the 2nd Infantry Division in front of roughly 500 people at Robertson Field at Camp Humphreys said he felt he was “truly hitting the jackpot.”
“It is apparent after only spending a little time in theater that our secret power and secret sauce is the combined nature and these incredible [South Korean] soldiers that are part of this division,” Lombardo said outside the 2nd ID headquarters.
The former armor officer said he noticed three distinct characteristics in U.S. soldiers who served in Korea: enforcing high standards, a mastery in fundamentals and “lethality.”
Lombardo took command of the roughly 14,000-strong division from Maj. Gen. William Taylor, who held the position for 13 months.
From left , Maj. Gen. William Taylor, outgoing 2nd Infantry Division commander, Lt. Gen. Christopher LaNeve, 8th Army commander, and Maj. Gen. Charles Lombardo, incoming 2nd ID commander, at the division change of command at Camp Humphreys, South Korea, on June 21, 2024. (Luis Garcia/Stars and Stripes)
Lombardo was previously the director of training for the Headquarters of the Army and served as the deputy commanding general of training at the Combined Arms Center in Fort Leavenworth, Kan.
He graduated from Southwest Missouri State University and was commissioned in 1993, according to his Army biography.
Taylor begins his new position as U.S. Forces Korea’s director of operations on July 1, USFK spokesman Thomas Duval said in an email Friday.
USFK, the command responsible for roughly 28,500 U.S. troops in South Korea, is headquartered at Camp Humphreys, the largest American military base overseas. The base is also home to the headquarters of U.N. Command, Combined Forces Command and Eighth Army.
Taylor described his time as 2nd ID’s commander and his five years serving in South Korea so far as “extremely important and special.”
“Just know that serving here in Korea as part of the greatest alliance is truly an amazing opportunity,” Taylor said in a speech. “We have a real mission that brings us all together with a common purpose for good.”
The 2nd ID’s arsenal includes a combat aviation brigade, a field artillery brigade and a yearly rotational force from the United States. The current rotational unit, the Texas-based 3rd Cavalry Regiment, arrived in South Korea in February.
The division includes about 1,000 South Korean draftees who undergo a highly competitive exam to become Korean Augmentation to the U.S. Army, or KATUSA, soldiers.
“Thank you for sending us the best that your army has to offer,” Taylor said to South Korean military officials in attendance. “As they serve in the [South Korea-U.S.] combined division, they make us better each and every day.”
David Choi
David Choi
David Choi is based in South Korea and reports on the U.S. military and foreign policy. He served in the U.S. Army and California Army National Guard. He graduated from the University of California, Los Angeles.
Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · June 21, 2024
8. Could CIA Sabotage North Korean Arm Shipments to Russia?
All the new Korea experts coming out this week with the Putin-Kim visit.
Could CIA Sabotage North Korean Arm Shipments to Russia?
Yes, but it's hardly likely with very cautious White House and risk averse CIA, sources say
https://www.spytalk.co/p/could-cia-sabotage-north-korean-arm?utm
JEFF STEIN
JUN 20, 2024
Maybe I re-visited too many World War Two movies and TV series around the 80th anniversary of D-Day last month, but one of the first things that came to mind while I read about Kim Jong Un’s new ams deal with Russia (following those laughably ornate parades with Vladimir Putin in Pyongyang) was: Can’t we throw a wrench in this supply train?
You know, arrange to blow up stuff—ships, rail lines, computer systems? Salt the shipments with bad weapons?
Probably, a half dozen former CIA officials, some of whom have been involved in past covert sabotage operations against adversary nations and forces, told me. But it’s not going to happen anytime soon, if ever, during a Biden administration that’s shown itself to be exceedingly cautious about riling Russia and a risk-averse CIA that’s likely to talk sabotage proposals to death.
In response to my question of how CIA might propose to sabotage the arms shipments, one former senior CIA manager simply sent me a video clip from Airplane, the one where a passenger named Ted Striker babbles on so much his seatmates commit suicide.
“I loved the video,” said another former top counterterrorism operative I shared it with. After returning to headquarters after a long action-packed overseas assignment years ago, he said, “I discovered to my horror that I was involved in meetings all day and rarely could focus on an op ... I wanted to commit seppuku.”
In any event, the White House National Security Council would vet any CIA proposals that came its way, and if they liked what they saw, President Biden would have to issue “a finding” approving the ops. Then the congressional Gang of Eight would be let in on them.
With time running out five months before the election, and facing a polarized Congress dominated by Republicans eager to bring Biden down, the likelihood of the White House proposing any grand covert ops to sabotage the arms shipments at sea or on rail in Russia, via kinetic or cyber ops, is so small as to be nonexistent, my conversants told me.
“If they did throw around ideas, the first options would be technical—hacking computers, railroad infrastructure, shipping containers, etc.,” retired former CIA operations officer Luis Rueda told me. “These options are more secure, less likely to lead to sources getting wrapped up, [with] more deniability,” he said. If a U.S hand were exposed, he said, the prospect of Russian or North Korean retaliation would be slight, because “they do this shit against us” already.
On the other hand, he added, “We would likely go the easier route of finding that capability from the Ukranians. They could do it, but it opens up a bunch of CI [counterintelligence] problems. The Russians would eventually find out. [But] maybe we could use long range drones, modified Ukrainian drones, to hit the railroad connections [and] blame Ukrainians.”
Others were less impressed with the gravity of the arms deal announced in Pyongyang. One of my interlocutors basically shrugged.
For starters, North Korea has already supplied Russia with millions of artillery shells, according to published reports, and they haven’t won the war. Nor does North Korea have microchips or advanced technology to offer Russia. “And any weapons they get are used to kill civilians,” generally speaking, not Ukrainian troops, another top former CIA manager, who this year visited Ukraine to assess progress in the war, told me.
Russia’s military industries are running overtime now, anyway, another former intelligence official advised; they don’t really need basic North Korean stuff that much. Putin’s trumped up sojourns to Pyongyang and Vietnam were mostly propaganda stunts. Beyond China, he really doesn't have any other friends (and Xi Jinping’s love has its limits).
Dead Men Shooting
Then there’s the low quality of North Korean shells. They’re killing the troops.
“Russia is using low-quality, often-defective artillery shells from North Korea that can cause problems on the front lines, Ukraine's army said in a Facebook post” last December, Business Insider reported at the time. “In some cases, the North Korean-supplied shells damage cannon and mortar barrels and even injure Russian soldiers.”
I heard this from my own sources, who said the U.S. should harp on that: Make sure fresh Russian troops, and their families, know about it. And more, said one.
“This [North Korean] stuff is so poor quality that I would target Russian supplies to force them to rely on it as much as possible,” said one. “Alternatively, we can do what we did before and insert sabotaged [North Korean] munitions with the regular stuff to convince the Russians not to trust it. That would happen in Russia or their part of Ukraine. But [North Korean] stuff is so bad I like them relying on it.”
Behind-the-lines heroics, in the other words, are much more likely to show up on Netflix or at your local movie theater. At least from the U.S. side, now and come late January, whatever administration is in power. The killing hands are hidden.
9. The New Russia-North Korea Security Alliance
An interesting recommendation.
I believe Putin and Kim both fear and envy real alliances which is something they will never have.
Excerpt:
Q4: What should the United States do?
A4: The most direct and appropriate response would be for the United States, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines to consider a common collective defense framework, starting at the NATO summit in Washington, D.C., next month. The first three of these countries will be at the summit, and they should invite the Philippines to join. This collective defense framework would state that a threat to one is a threat to all.
The New Russia-North Korea Security Alliance
csis.org · by Critical Questions by Victor Cha and Ellen Kim Published June 20, 2024
Photo: GAVRIIL GRIGOROV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images
Remote Visualization
In the early hours of Wednesday morning on June 20 (KST), Russian president Vladimir Putin arrived in Pyongyang for his summit meeting with Kim Jong-un. This is his first visit to the country in 24 years, signaling the importance Putin places on his relationship with the North Korean leader during Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. The Putin-Kim meeting came less than 10 months after their last meeting at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia’s Amur Region. During his one-day stay in Pyongyang, Putin received lavish treatment from Kim, including a personal reception at the airport, a welcome ceremony and open car parade at the Kim Il-sung Square, as well as mass chanting of his name by the North Korean people.
Q1: What is the significance of their summit?
A1: The Putin-Kim summit signifies a deepening strategic alignment between Russia and North Korea in their confrontation with the United States and its allies. Compared to their previous summit, during which the two leaders did not announce any deals, this meeting generated several summit deliverables that are deeply troubling to Washington and Seoul. First, the two leaders hinted at their intent to continue arms cooperation between their countries—despite the recent warnings from the G7 leaders’ summit in Italy. Kim’s expressed “unconditional support” to Russia’s policies, including the war in Ukraine, was reciprocated by Putin, who explicitly stated, “Russia does not exclude for itself the development of military-technical cooperation with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.” Second, their plan to establish “alternative mechanisms of trade and mutual settlements” is a direct rebuke and puts additional pressure on the global sanctions regimes that are already falling apart. Last but most significantly, both countries signed a “comprehensive strategic partnership” treaty and pledged mutual assistance to each other in the case that either of them were to come under attack, reviving what seems like an old Cold War alliance between the two countries.
Q2: What does the mutual assistance clause mean?
A2: According to Article 4 of the new comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between Russia and North Korea, if either country “falls into a state of war,” the other shall “provide military and other assistance with all means . . . without delay.” This treaty text manifests that Moscow and Pyongyang are forging a full-fledged military alliance circa the Cold War; what is new and particularly notable is that this renewed North Korea-Russia alliance is based on their mutual opposition to the United States and the Western liberal order, rather than based on common ideology. Another key highlight is that this is not a short-term, tactical agreement. Countries do not sign a document like this unless it’s a long-term commitment.
Q3: What are the implications of the deepening alignment between Russia and North Korea?
A3: This DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) relationship with Russia is the gravest threat to the United States since the Korean War. Its impact on European security is obvious, given the millions of rounds of ammunition and scores of ballistic missiles being used by Russia on the battlefield. This linking of Russian and DPRK security, however, has implications not just for the Korean peninsula but also for U.S. homeland security. If Kim drives a hard bargain and demands high-end nuclear and missile technology for North Korea’s ammunition supplies, Putin may have no choice but to provide that technology, in which case North Korea would benefit from fielding a nuclear weapons force that could evade U.S. missile defenses with high-end intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear submarines. While the United States and its allies could contend with such a challenge, it would greatly complicate the security picture given the challenges of preparing for a Taiwan contingency.
Q4: What should the United States do?
A4: The most direct and appropriate response would be for the United States, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines to consider a common collective defense framework, starting at the NATO summit in Washington, D.C., next month. The first three of these countries will be at the summit, and they should invite the Philippines to join. This collective defense framework would state that a threat to one is a threat to all.
The United States should enlist Europe in an effort to seize North Korean financial assets and undertake a similar use of those funds as was agreed to at the G7 summit last week regarding Russian assets. The beneficiaries of these funds could be Ukraine (given the fact that North Korean weapons are killing fellow Europeans), or North Korean citizens, given the grave human rights abuses in that state. In the latter case, the funds could be used to promote information penetration campaigns in response to the North Korean garbage balloons disbursed over South Korea.
The United States, Europe, and others also should determine what Western components are being used in North Korean military wares and secondary sanction all companies involved in this trade as well as in the arms trade with Russia. The United States, the G7, and NATO can try to lean on China to put pressure on North Korea. This may push Kim more into the arms of Putin, in which case Beijing could also be encouraged to lean on Russia, leveraging the substantial industrial assistance that China has given to Russia during the war. Neither of these are good choices for China, but they would place greater responsibility at the feet of the Chinese, which they must bear if they want to be a global player.
Victor Cha is senior vice president for Asia and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Ellen Kim is deputy director and senior fellow with the Korea Chair at CSIS.
Critical Questions is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).
© 2024 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.
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Programs & Projects
csis.org · by Critical Questions by Victor Cha and Ellen Kim Published June 20, 2024
10. 'We haven't seen a threat like this since WWII,' Gen. Keane warns
I do not think we should hyperventilate over the Putin-Kim "alliance." Yes, we do need to be wary and take them seriously. But this alliance has grown out of the weakness of both countries as well as envy and fear of our alliances). And we could exploit those weaknesses if we choose to.
'We haven't seen a threat like this since WWII,' Gen. Keane warns
foxnews.com · by Fox News Staff Fox News
Video
This alliance threatens war with the US in multiple places: Gen. Jack Keane
Fox News senior strategic analyst Gen. Jack Keane joins ‘America’s Newsroom’ to discuss how Russia rebuilt its military with help from China, Iran and North Korea and the threat it poses to the U.S.
Retired four-star Army Gen. Jack Keane explained on "America's Newsroom" that the growing alliance between Russia, China, North Korea and Iran is becoming more dangerous for the United States. The Fox News senior strategic analyst said the country has not seen a threat this serious since World War II and the Biden administration is not effectively communicating it to the American people.
GEN. JACK KEANE: Four days after the State of the Union, our intelligence chiefs came before a scheduled meeting with the Congress. And they said these four countries represent a threat to the United States we haven't seen in multiple decades. And looking at this, what we're really facing is collaboration and cooperation among four distinct allies. China is a near peer competitor. Russia is a chronic threat. Iran seeks domination of the Middle East, and North Korea has a nuclear arsenal with ballistic missiles that can reach the United States. This is serious. We believe, at [The Institute for the Study of War], that we haven't seen a threat like this since World War II. Why? Because we could get involved in more than one war in multiple theaters. That is really the issue that we're facing.
In this photo provided Thursday, June 20, 2024, by the North Korean government, Russian President Vladimir Putin, center, and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un, center left, review an honor guard during the official welcome ceremony in the Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang, North Korea, Wednesday, June 19. ((Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP))
And here's the problem, the intelligence chiefs said this is very serious. We haven't seen it in decades. We're saying we haven't really seen anything like this since World War II. Where is the administration having a frank conversation with the American people about the seriousness of this threat and how it would impact American security? It is not happening, and that is pretty outrageous and shameful.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, split with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un.
RUSSIA, NORTH KOREA COMMIT TO DEFENDING EACH OTHER 'WITHOUT DELAY' IF INVADED, PROVOKING SOUTH KOREAN OUTRAGE
Keane's warning comes as Russia has entered into a defensive pact with North Korea that obligates both nations to defend each other from military adversaries "without delay."
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un signed the landmark agreement on Wednesday in a move that has alarmed Western powers.
"If one of the two sides is placed under war situations due to an armed invasion from an individual country or several nations, the other side provides military and other assistance without delay by mobilizing all means in its possession," the agreement states.
Video
This article was written by Fox News staff.
foxnews.com · by Fox News Staff Fox News
11. Putin Shocks the World With Defense Treaty with Pariah Kim
Weakness, fear, and envy. The Russia–north Korean equivalent of fear, honor, and interest.
Putin and Kim are weak. They fear US alliances. And they envy US alliances.
DEFENSE/SECURITY
Putin Shocks the World With Defense Treaty with Pariah Kim
Pact significantly raises tensions across Asia
https://www.asiasentinel.com/p/vladimir-putin-defense-treaty-kim-jong-un?utm
JUN 21, 2024
By: Shim Jae Hoon
Driving to perdition
Even as the Ukraine invasion he launched more than two years ago is still burning, Russian dictator Vladimir V. Putin has sent a new shockwave across the world by signing a mutual defense treaty with the pariah dictator Kim Jong Un, setting forth Moscow’s readiness to come to North Korea’s if another war broke out on the divided Korean peninsula. If South Korea retaliates by sending weapons to Ukraine, as some analysts have speculated, Putin warned, Seoul would be making “a very big mistake,” while claiming Seoul has “nothing to worry about” concerning the new pact.
Nonetheless, the treaty raises the specter of nuclear war in Northeast Asia as the Kim Jong Un regime, armed with a stock of rudimentary nuclear bombs probably running to two dozen, keeps tensions high by threatening to obliterate the South in the next conflict. Kim recently declared the North was in a state of suspended war, not a complete peace, and rejected the notion of peaceful coexistence.
Officially called a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty, the 22-article agreement sets forth extensive cooperation between the two nations in all areas of scientific, economic, and cultural exchanges. But the most important article, the fourth, states that Moscow will “without delay” come to the aid of the Kim regime in the event of an attack by a third party. The Kim regime, which already has conducted six rounds of underground nuclear tests, is committed to further develop nuclear-tipped warheads that can be fitted on ICBMs that can reach US targets. The treaty, as it is, opens the way for Russia to help advance North Korea’s nuclear weapons system, which is poised against South Korea, Japan, and the US. Depending on what help Russia provides, North Korea’s nuclear capability could turn into a massive global threat.
Within hours of Putin’s departure on his June 19 state visit, his first to Pyongyang in 24 years, Kim proudly released the full text of the treaty in a move clearly intended to alarm Seoul, Tokyo, and Washington. According to Article Four, Russia is obliged to come to the aid of North Korea in case of a war and vice versa. In its concept, the treaty revived the 1961 accord that provided an automatic involvement of the Soviet Union in case of war on the Korean peninsula. That treaty was replaced with a new one emphasizing amity rather than war after the collapse of the Soviet system in the year 2000. Putin is now taking the treaty back to the Cold War era East-West confrontation by promising armed intervention.
The 22-article treaty covers the whole gamut of bilateral cooperation including in science, culture and information technology, climate change, cooperation in agriculture and industrial areas. Some of these economic clauses appear designed for North Korea to send tens of thousands of guest workers to Russia in attempt to earn foreign exchange. More than 10,000 North Koreans are already scattered across the vast expanse of Russian territory, with their earnings keeping families back home from starving.
But the most critical area of concern lies in the possibility of Russia providing high-level missile and nuclear technology with the effect of boosting North Korea’s already significant armament arms capability. At his previous summit with Putin in the Russian Far East last September, Kim reportedly submitted a list of arms acquisitions in five categories including spy satellites, nuclear submarines, longer range ballistic missiles, and more modern fighter jets.
In exchange for these high-end super-modern arms, Kim was already shipping tens of millions of conventional artillery shells, drones, and other traditional arms to the Ukrainian front.
The possibility of North Korea gaining access to advanced satellite and missile systems has alarmed the US, Japan, and even NATO member countries, already gripped in tensions over the Ukraine War. In Washington, the Biden administration has issued stern warnings to Russia that providing this advanced weaponry would result in increasing global tensions at a time of war in Europe. It has also alarmed NATO.
South Korea, taken aback by the development, is in a special quandary. Hours before Putin’s departure for Asia, a top security adviser for South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol issued a circuitous warning to Russia “not to cross the line” by signing such an agreement. Seoul has maintained a cautious stance on Russia over the years, abstaining from publicly denouncing the Russian war in Ukraine, even dispatching a special envoy to congratulate Putin at his fifth presidential inauguration. Throughout Putin’s 24-year reign, Seoul has maintained brisk trade and investment, even extending a government loan to post-Soviet Russia.
Now the table is turned. News of the defense treaty, laying the Yoon administration open to criticisms of naivete, is prompting Seoul to undertake a wholesale reevaluation of its Russian policy. One immediate result is the reappraisal of its cautious stance on the Ukraine War. The Yoon government is coming under pressure to provide arms aid to the Zelenskyy government to match Putin’s aid to North Korea. Ukraine thus looks like becoming a battleground for a proxy war between North and South Korean weapons. Already, the Yoon government is coming under pressure to send more artillery shells to the US to help replenish drained US ammunition stocks. Now Seoul is coming under pressure, both at home and from allies, to consider sending arms aid to Ukraine.
Even as North Korea is already a massive source of millions of artillery shells to Russian troops in Ukraine, South Korea has the potential of emerging as an even bigger source of help if a political decision is made. South Korea not only has a vast stock of conventional weapons, but it is also capable of producing a vast array of medium-level arms such as tanks, long-range howitzers, missiles, rockets, and fighter jets. South Korea’s exports of midlevel arms to Europe and Southeast Asia today makes it one of major arms producers and exporters in the world. Countries surrounding Russia such as Poland and Hungary are already major importers of South Korean weapon systems. Some of South Korea’s big-name munitions companies are already setting up shops in Poland and elsewhere.
With Kim bragging about his new treaty “virtual (military) alliance,” the conservative Yoon government is coming under growing pressure at home to revise its cautious policy on arms exports to help Ukraine, especially from Japan, whose officials fear Putin’s treaty with North Korea makes the Kim regime a “virtual arms depot” for Moscow. The Kishida government, in the face of North Korea’s continuing satellite test firings over the Sea of Japan, has been expanding its own military power, with a defense budget in excess of the traditional freezing point of 1 percent of GDP. The prospect of Kim spurring modernization of his nuclear efforts with Russian help will add fuel to the fire of debate on Japan’s rearmament through constitutional amendment.
Russia’s alliance with North Korea also complicates China’s position, caught in the process of expanding and modernizing its economy through wider cooperation with Japan and South Korea. This quandary showed vividly in its lukewarm response to the Russian initiative. Responding to the news, Chinese officials in Beijing responded with a short lukewarm comment that it constituted a “bilateral matter of the two countries, Russia and North Korea.” But underneath that seemingly offhanded response, China’s deputy foreign minister and a People’s Liberation Army general were in Seoul for regular two-plus-two consultations with South Korean counterparts to talk about mutual security and foreign policy issues. In Seoul, they were already uncomfortable witness to wide-ranging calls to send weapons to Ukraine and having NATO get more concerned with the implications of Russia’s action.
12. South Korean giant Hanwha agrees to acquire Philly Shipyard for $100M
Will these moves lead to an improvement in US shipbuilding?
South Korean giant Hanwha agrees to acquire Philly Shipyard for $100M - Breaking Defense
It's the latest in a series of moves South Korean shipbuilders have made to advance their interests in American-based facilities.
By JUSTIN KATZ
on June 20, 2024 at 1:48 PM
breakingdefense.com · by Justin Katz · June 20, 2024
A petroleum tanker stands while being built at the Aker Philadelphia Shipyard in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S. (Photographer: Bradley C. Bower/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
WASHINGTON — South Korea’s Hanwha Systems and its shipbuilding arm Hanwha Ocean have agreed to purchase Norwegian-owned Philly Shipyard in a deal valued at $100 million pending relevant regulatory approvals, according to a statement from Philly Shipyard today.
“After two decades of stewardship, it is with great honor that we transition the ownership from Aker to Hanwha,” said Kristian Røkke, chairman of Philly Shipyard ASA. “Recognized as a global leader, Hanwha brings a wealth of sophisticated shipbuilding experience that will enable Philly Shipyard to realize a grander vision for its employees and customers.”
Philly Shipyard, based in the eponymous city, sits at what was once the site of a US Navy facility. It was founded in 1997, best known for its work producing container vessels and tankers, and is a subsidiary of the Norwegian industrial investment group Aker.
The news of Hanwha’s acquisition comes as South Korean shipbuilding giants have taken a keen interest in American-based shipyards at the behest of Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro who has eagerly encouraged as much.
Following the announcement of Hanwha’s acquisition, Del Toro’s office issued a statement hailing the agreement.
“Hanwha’s acquisition of Philly Shipyard is a game-changing milestone in our new Maritime Statecraft,” the secretary said. “This will bring good paying union jobs to Philadelphia, a city with a 250-year relationship with the U.S. Navy. Knowing how they will change the competitive U.S. shipbuilding landscape, I could not be more excited to welcome Hanwha as the first Korean shipbuilder to come to American shores—and I am certain they will not be the last.”
Just this past April, Philly Shipyard signed a separate agreement with Hanwha competitor, South Korean shipbuilder HD Hyundai Heavy Industries to cooperate on various construction projects and maintenance work.
Earlier this year, Hanwha made a play to purchase the Australian shipbuilder Austal, which would include its Alabama-based facilities in Mobile, but the deal was rejected — at least for the time being, with both parties indicating they might reconsider down the road.
In its public statement rejecting Hanwha’s offer, Austal cited possible regulatory concerns in Washington and Canberra over the notion of the South Koreans taking ownership; Austal USA is a staple shipbuilder for the US Navy and has advanced several new projects since introducing steel facilities to its Alabama campuses. (In its own statements, Hanwha downplayed any concern about regulators quashing the deal.)
Philly Shipyard ostensibly does not have those same concerns and the new deal will give Hanwha a chance to test the waters with American regulators. If approvals are given, the deal could close in the fourth quarter of 2024.
“The transaction is subject to the satisfaction of certain customary conditions, including approval by CFIUS (Committee of Foreign Investments in the US) and other regulatory approvals being obtained as well as no material adverse event having occurred in relation to PSI [Philly Shipyard],” according to the company statement.
“In the event of cost overruns in excess of USD 100 million in current projects undertaken by PSI compared to the company’s current estimates, the parties have agreed principles to reduce the payable purchase price at closing. Except for certain transaction costs, the purchase price is not subject to any other adjustments,” the statement continued.
Updated 6/20/2022 at 5:13 pm ET with comment from Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro.
13. N. Korean defectors send anti-Pyongyang leaflets again to N. Korea
Good. We must never back down (the "royal we" - ROK, US, the international community and the escapees from north Korea).
N. Korean defectors send anti-Pyongyang leaflets again to N. Korea | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · June 21, 2024
SEOUL, June 21 (Yonhap) -- A North Korean defectors' group said Friday it has sent more balloons carrying anti-Pyongyang leaflets to North Korea the previous day, after the North warned of counteractions against such a leaflet campaign and Seoul's propaganda loudspeaker broadcasts.
The Fighters for a Free North Korea (FFNK) said it sent 20 balloons carrying some 300,000 leaflets, USB sticks and U.S. dollars across the border on Thursday night in the border city of Paju.
The group said the USB sticks contained hit K-drama "Winter Sonata" and songs by popular trot singer Lim Young-woong.
North Korean defector Park Sang-hak, head of the FFNK, earlier warned he will continue to send propaganda leaflets to the North until North Korean leader Kim Jong-un apologizes for the North's sending of trash-carrying balloons to the South.
Inter-Korean tensions heightened after North Korea sent more than 1,000 trash-carrying balloons toward the South in its tit-for-tat action against Seoul activists' leaflet campaigns.
In response, South Korea resumed loudspeaker broadcasts on June 9 for the first time in six years. But it did not turn on the loudspeakers the next day in an apparent bid to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control.
Kim Yo-jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, earlier warned that her country could take an unspecified "new counteraction" against South Korea if Seoul keeps sending such leaflets and blaring its loudspeaker broadcasts across the border.
This photo, provided by the Fighters for a Free North Korea, a North Korean defectors' group, on June 21, 2024, shows its members sending balloons carrying anti-Pyongyang leaflets to North Korea in the South Korean border city of Paju the previous day. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · June 21, 2024
14. N. Korea, Russia agree to offer military assistance 'without delay' if either is attacked: KCNA
(LEAD) N. Korea, Russia agree to offer military assistance 'without delay' if either is attacked: KCNA | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · June 20, 2024
(ATTN: UPDATES with more details throughout)
By Kim Soo-yeon
SEOUL, June 20 (Yonhap) -- North Korea and Russia have agreed to offer military assistance "without delay" if either is attacked under a new partnership treaty signed after this week's summit, Pyongyang's state media reported Thursday.
The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) disclosed the full text of the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed Wednesday after their talks in Pyongyang.
"If one of the two sides is placed under war situations due to an armed invasion from an individual country or several nations, the other side provides military and other assistance without delay by mobilizing all means in its possession in line with the Article 51 of the U.N. Charter and the laws of the DPRK and the Russian Federation," the treaty read.
The Article 51 of the U.N. Charter stipulates that all U.N. member countries have the inherent right of individual and collective self-defense right if an armed attack is staged against them.
After the summit talks, Kim declared the North's relations with Russia have been upgraded to "the level of alliance." But Putin stopped short of going as far as defining the relationship as an alliance.
The KCNA said the new treaty also requires both sides not to sign treaties with third countries that infringe on the other's core interests or participate in such acts.
Views are still divided as to whether the treaty can be seen as a mutual defense treaty.
The new partnership treaty will replace bilateral treaties that North Korea and Russia have so far clinched, including a treaty of bilateral ties in 2000 that centered on cooperation in non-military sectors.
North Korea and the former Soviet Union signed a treaty of friendship and mutual assistance in 1961. The treaty included a provision for so-called automatic military intervention, under which if one side comes under an armed attack, the other provides military troops and other aid without hesitation.
The summit talks came amid concerns that Russia and North Korea, both under international sanctions, could intensify their military cooperation amid Moscow's war in Ukraine.
This photo, provided by AP on June 20, 2024, shows Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attending a banquet the previous day after they held summit talks in Pyongyang. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · June 20, 2024
15. New Russia-N.K. treaty signals united front against anti-Pyongyang sanctions
New Russia-N.K. treaty signals united front against anti-Pyongyang sanctions | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · June 20, 2024
By Kim Seung-yeon
SEOUL, June 20 (Yonhap) -- The new partnership treaty between North Korea and Russia indicates their strong intent to resist the international sanctions in place against Pyongyang over its nuclear and weapons programs.
The North's Korean Central News Agency released the Korean-language full text of the "comprehensive strategic partnership treaty" that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed Wednesday after their talks in Pyongyang.
It has a clause about expressing opposition to "unilateral coercive measures of an extraterritorial nature." Article 16 also says that the two states "consider the implementation of such measures to be illegal and acts that violate the U.N. Charter and international norms."
The treaty stipulates that the two sides will "coordinate and cooperate to support multilateral initiatives that will exclude the international practice of applying" these measures.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) poses with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during the signing ceremony for their comprehensive strategic partnership treaty, at their summit in Pyongyang, on June 19, 2024, in this photo released by the North's state media Korean Central News Agency the next day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
Those measures appear to mean the U.S. sanctions and the independent sanctions imposed on North Korea by the United States and its allies and partners, like South Korea, Japan and Australia, outside of the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) sanctions regime.
The imposition of independent anti-Pyongyang sanctions has gained more traction amid a weakening of the UNSC sanctions regime on North Korea in recent years, due mainly to the passive attitudes of China and Russia.
In late March, Russia vetoed the annual renewal of the U.N. panel monitoring the implementation of North Korean sanctions, a move that was highly criticized by the West.
In the news conference following the summit with Kim, Putin blasted the sanctions regime as "sanctions strangulation by the West" and claimed that the UNSC sanctions regime against the North should be revised.
Putin's visit to the North marks an "impetus for creating mechanisms to reduce the impact of sanctions on bilateral relations," the Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, was quoted as saying by Sputnik.
The treaty also says that neither of the two countries should join any action that would "infringe upon the core interests of one of them" and that they commit to addressing issues that might pose a "direct or indirect challenge to their shared interests and safety."
The treaty has also specified science and technology, space, peaceful use of nuclear power and artificial intelligence as among the areas for cooperation.
This can be seen as risking the possibility of flouting the U.N. sanctions, as North Korea is banned from using any technology that may be diverted for its development of weapons of mass destruction under the Resolution 2321 of the UNSC sanctions, adopted in 2016.
The new treaty is expected to spur momentum for expanded cooperation between the two states, not only in the military and technological sense, but also in terms of trade and infrastructure, which will help the isolated North improve its economy long crippled by the sanctions.
Article 10 states that "conditions will be created" for cooperation in areas like customs and finance as they work to increase trade volumes.
The treaty also mentions "working to build 'direct linkages' for regional developments," suggesting Russia's commitment to providing support for transport and other infrastructure construction in North Korea.
elly@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · June 20, 2024
16. Kim-Putin treaty underlines both deeper security guarantees, shared weaknesses
Yes. Fear, envy, and weakness.
(2nd LD) (News Focus) Kim-Putin treaty underlines both deeper security guarantees, shared weaknesses | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · June 20, 2024
(ATTN: ADDS more remarks in para 24)
By Song Sang-ho and Kang Byeong-cheol
WASHINGTON, June 19 (Yonhap) -- A newly clinched partnership treaty between Russia and North Korea this week underscored both a manifestly elevated level of mutual security support, and their weaknesses in the face of crippling sanctions and diplomatic isolation, U.S. experts said Wednesday.
Analysts also raised questions over the future of the two countries' cooperation under the "comprehensive strategic partnership" treaty, saying it could be affected by the uncertainty-laden trajectory of Russia's war in Ukraine, the U.S. presidential election in November and China's oversize role in regional geopolitics.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed the treaty during their highly symbolic summit in Pyongyang on Wednesday (Korea time), an event carefully watched by Seoul, Washington and others for its security and geopolitical implications.
Putin said that the treaty provides for mutual assistance in the event of aggression against one of the two countries, while Kim declared the bilateral relationship has been upgraded to the level of alliance -- a term that Putin fell short of uttering.
This photo, released by Russia's TASS news agency, shows Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un posing at the Kumsusan State Guest House at their summit on June 19, 2024. (Yonhap)
"This is a renewal of Cold War-era security guarantees, no doubt," Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said.
"Except this time it is based on mutual transactional needs -- artillery for Russia and high-end military technology for DPRK. They are united not by ideology as in the Cold War but common opposition to the U.S. and the western liberal order," he added.
DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
A lack of clarity on the specifics of the treaty has raised questions over whether it is similar to an outright military alliance treaty or one just shy of a collective defense arrangement that calls for one party to automatically intervene in case of an attack on the other.
Though many concur that the treaty signifies a new level of mutual security commitments, experts were split over what the treaty might mean.
Scott Snyder, president of the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI), said that the treaty appears to establish "more reliable" support for Russian assistance to North Korea in the event of a conflict, as he cast it as a "step toward addressing acute North Korean fears of isolation."
"The main geopolitical implication is that the Korean conflict is less localized and more likely to be viewed in the context of global geostrategies, enmeshing outside actors such as the U.S. and Russia more directly in peninsular tensions," he said.
Some experts cast doubts over whether the treaty will lead each country to go as far as to commit troops to support the other in a contingency.
"While I don't think either side would send troops to each other's aid if some unexpected military confrontation with the West occurred, I do think it would mean a massive mutual stepping up of support," Harry Kazianis, president of Rogue States Project, a security think tank, said.
"For example, you could see Russia send North Korea air defense systems, advanced ballistic missiles, and even trainers to help if the Second Korean War were to ever resume -- a sort of revenge for Western Ukraine war aid to Kyiv, if you will," he said.
Patrick Cronin, chair for Asia-Pacific Security at the Hudson Institute, said that Russia and the North "will always fall short of a true alliance."
"Today, Russia and North Korea have a special defense partnership, but not an alliance. There is no credible mechanism or political will to fight for each other or develop a joint military strategy," he said. "There is, however, a mutual desire to show solidarity in opposition to a U.S.-led order."
Sydney Seiler, former intelligence officer at the U.S. National Intelligence Council, said that Russia's commitment to Pyongyang in the treaty may be "more rhetorical than practical," particularly when one can hardly imagine South Korea and the United States launching an abrupt attack on the North.
"I get a sense this comprehensive strategic partnership as well as the summit itself is not really designed to make new breakthroughs, but rather to have a demonstration to the world of this new partnership of this cooperation between Russia and North Korea, and this open challenge to the Western liberal order," he said.
Seiler raised the prospects of future developments affecting the treaty possibly in a negative sense.
"There's always a sense that things will evolve going forward," he said. "How long will the war (in Ukraine) last? If the war begins to wind down and there's less need for North Korea's support. A lot of these elements could be reversed."
Clint Work, director of academic affairs at the KEI, also enumerated variables that can affect conditions for cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang.
"Those conditions may change depending on how the war in Ukraine plays out, how U.S. policy itself may shift under Trump -- if he is elected -- as well as how China responds to Moscow and Pyongyang's enhanced cooperation," Work said.
He also noted that he does not necessarily view the increased security commitments between the North and Russia as a sign of their renewed strength.
"In fact, I see it as a sign of their respective weaknesses as well as the profound constraints that they face yet simultaneously and somewhat contradictorily, their willingness and ability to push boundaries, set the initiative, and demonstrate that U.S. and international sanctions regimes have distinct limits," he said.
The treaty came as the North and Russia have been stepping up defense cooperation amid Moscow's protracted war in Ukraine. Pyongyang has provided Russia with dozens of ballistic missiles and more than 11,000 containers of munitions, while the North has been seeking assistance from Moscow, including fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles and ballistic missile production equipment, according to U.S. officials.
The bilateral treaty at this juncture could benefit Putin more than Kim, Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at RAND Corp., indicated.
"I think this agreement is what I call the 'Putin Trap': Putin has annexed four Ukrainian provinces as part of Russia. If Ukraine does a counteroffensive into these territories, they have invaded Russia as far as Putin is concerned, and he can call on Kim to provide North Korean forces to help defend Russia," he said.
"Big mistake on Kim's part, given that in reality the United States and South Korea have no interest in attacking North Korea."
Noting that the North Korean and Russian leaders' explicit desire for sturdier cooperation has heightened security uncertainties, some analysts anticipated greater momentum for security cooperation among Seoul, Washington and Tokyo.
"I think this sets the pretext for a formalization of the U.S.-Japan-Korea trilateral security relationship in the context of the NATO summit next month," Cha said. "I would like to see a collective security declaration between the three -- threats to one are a threat to all."
Frank Aum, a senior expert at the United States Institute of Peace, underscored the need for Washington and its allies to work harder to curb burgeoning ties between the North and Russia.
"Their enhanced cooperation means that Russia will continue to have the capabilities to prosecute its war in Ukraine conflict and North Korea will continue to have the nutritional, military, and energy assistance it needs to act in whatever way it pleases and avoid engaging with the U.S.," he said.
"The U.S. and its allies should have taken more steps to forestall or mitigate the growing Russia-North Korea ties, just as China has taken steps through the recent trilateral summit to enhance economic and people-to-people relations with South Korea and Japan."
Amid all the pomp and ceremony surrounding the Pyongyang summit, China might be a key spectator with keen interest in how relations between the North and Russia evolve, analysts said.
"China is likely nervous ... Pyongyang is prioritizing Moscow over Beijing because Moscow is willing to give Kim more than Beijing is," Seiler said.
"This is a more flagrant proclamation that Russia is moving beyond sanctions. It is going to engage North Korea as it is independent of the nuclear issue, independent of the progress of denuclearization."
This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on June 19, 2024, shows a street in Pyongyang lined with portraits of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who began his state visit to North Korea for talks with leader Kim Jong-un. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · June 20, 2024
17. Readout of Senior Defense Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs Leader's Trip to Adaptive Shield Exercise, Republic of Korea and Japan
Adaptive Shield seems like it might be the successor of Coral Breeze that was conducted in the 1990s to improve chemical and biological defense in South Korea.
Readout of Senior Defense Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs Leader's Trip to Adaptive Shield Exercise, Republic of Korea and Japan
June 18, 2024 |
DOD Spokesperson Robert L. Ditchey II provided the following readout:
Dr. Brandi Vann, Performing the Duties of Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs visited critical allies and partners in the Republic of Korea (ROK) and Japan from June 5-12, 2024.
While in the ROK Dr Vann met with GEN LaCamera, Commander, US Forces Korea to discuss defense capabilities on the Korean Peninsula. She also hosted the Adaptative Shield 2024 Senior Leader Seminar where she and senior leaders from across the United States and ROK governments were briefed on the findings from the Adaptive Shield exercise. Adaptive Shield is a tabletop exercise between U.S. Forces Korea and the Republic of Korea aimed at strengthening combined chemical and biological defense capabilities. The exercise this year focused on key training reforms in the 2023 Biodefense Posture Review, and on increased interoperability in providing early warning and rapidly responding to biothreats to mitigate their impact on USFK and ROK combined forces. Adaptive Shield 2024 also produced tangible actions to continue strengthening biodefense capabilities.
Dr. Vann next traveled to Japan to meet with senior leaders from US Forces Japan, Japan's Ministry of Defense (JMOD), Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics Agency (ATLA), National Defense Medical College (NDMC), and the Japan Ground Self Defense Force (JGSDF) Chemical School. The conversations with JMOD, ATLA, and NDMC focused on the Department's 2023 Biodefense Posture Review and implementing biodefense reforms, and CBRN defense capabilities and interoperability. CBRN defense capability and interoperability were also discussed with the JGSDF Chemical School.
18. A Tale of Three Triangles: The Complicated Geopolitics of Northeast Asia
Excerpts:
Perhaps more ominously, the Russians have almost abandoned their previous commitment to non-proliferation and denuclearization. Russian diplomats used to be staunch guardians of these principles, all during the years of the Six-Party talks. Now, they are providing active help to North Korea’s long-range missile development, thinly clothed as aiding satellite launches but in reality allowing Pyongyang to threaten the continental United States with nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles.
This is a serious shift and one with potentially dangerous consequences, as the South Korean editorial pointed out. But it should also be understood that the Russians – and their Chinese partners – are contemptuous of the North Korean regime, something this writer has heard in no uncertain terms in visits to Russia before the war. In conversations with Russian experts on the region, they made fun of the regime, seeing it as an extreme throwback to the worst days of Stalin’s personality cult and an unreliable actor.
There may be limits to their cooperation, though for now, this is a bargain that meets the needs of both. Beijing, uneasy as it may be, is not ready to block it.
For the US-Japan-South Korea triangle, the challenge will be to offer each other enhanced security and reassurance against the threat of conflict while being supportive of the efforts, fragile as they may be, of the South Korea-Japan-China triangle to avoid war.
A Tale of Three Triangles: The Complicated Geopolitics of Northeast Asia - Korea Economic Institute of America
keia.org · · June 20, 2024
A Tale of Three Triangles: The Complicated Geopolitics of Northeast Asia
Published June 20, 2024
Author: Daniel Sneider
Category: North Korea
The highly orchestrated imagery of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin standing next to his North Korean counterpart, Kim Jong Un, on the reviewing stand in Pyongyang’s main parade square is bound to evoke disturbing thoughts of the past. It reminds us of the historical turning point when Joseph Stalin, with Mao Zedong’s support, gave the green light to Kim’s grandfather to invade South Korea.
This time, China’s Xi Jinping was not present, as the Chinese have kept a distance from this recreation of the Cold War past. But China remains the principal backer of North Korea and echoes Russia’s embrace of the regime as a common victim of Western pressure and US hegemony. Perhaps uncomfortably, China is drawn again – as it was in 1950 – to backing Russia’s strategic miscalculations.
The one-day visit unveiled a new agreement to form a “comprehensive strategic partnership” between North Korea and Russia that includes a range of economic and cultural ties but, importantly, offers a pledge of “mutual aid” in the event of aggression. The new treaty replicates the language – in an even more detailed fashion – of the 1961 Soviet-North Korean treaty, creating an alignment that goes beyond anything seen since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
“In the event that either party falls into a state of war due to armed aggression from an individual state or multiple states, the other party shall immediately provide military and other assistance by all means available,” Article 4 of the treaty states, according to the text carried by the Korean Central News Agency.
The North Korea-Russia-China triangle faces off against another echo of the start of the Cold War in Korea – the tightening partnership between the United States, Japan, and South Korea. Following up on the Camp David Summit last year, the three countries have tried to institutionalize their security cooperation. This summer, the three militaries will carry out a joint multi-dimensional exercise codenamed “Freedom Edge,” a level of integration that would have been unthinkable even a year ago. The leaders of Japan and South Korea will attend the NATO Summit in July, perhaps offering their own version of collective security.
The sense of a looming confrontation, with echoes of 1950, has been embraced in the rhetoric of some expert observers. The Kim-Putin summit presents “the greatest threat to U.S. national security since the Korean War,” wrote Georgetown University professor and former national security official Victor Cha.
South Korean commentary has also warned of the possible dark consequences of this, even tying it to the possible return to power of Donald Trump. “A meeting between Kim and Putin – who both seek to break the status quo through instability, chaos, and disorder – is dangerous,” editorialized Donga Ilbo on June 18. “For the two leaders, the return of Donald Trump, who hit it off with them, is a golden opportunity.”
The imminence of a collision that might lead to war cannot be dismissed. But it ignores other dynamics in the region that reveal a far more complicated reality. Alongside these two triangles, there is also a third triangle – one between China, Japan, and South Korea – animated by an increasingly urgent search for stability rather than conflict.
In May, the three Asian neighbors convened a trilateral summit meeting in Seoul, the first leader-level gathering of this grouping since before the COVID-19 pandemic struck. While Kim and Putin were meeting in Pyongyang, a South Korea-China diplomatic and security dialogue was being held in Seoul for the first time since 2015.
Both these events took place after China dropped its resistance to resuming these dialogues, clearly reflecting its newfound desire to restore communication and even cooperation with Japan and South Korea. This is widely seen in part as a Chinese effort to drive wedges between its neighbors and the United States. But it also reflects a shared concern about the drift toward confrontation, driven also by economic warfare, that could undermine all three countries.
The Chinese have signaled their unease with the Kim-Putin embrace in small but significant ways. The trilateral summit in Seoul issued a joint declaration that notably included a common interest and responsibility to maintain “peace, stability, and prosperity” in Northeast Asia and referred to the positions on the “denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” This drew an unusually public rebuke from the North Korean regime.
The Kim-Putin summit is not an entirely happy event for Beijing. As the Wall Street Journal reported, Putin had hoped to visit North Korea on the heels of a visit to Beijing last month, but the Chinese nixed that idea, apparently wary of the image of a trilateral alliance at work. “The picture that emerges is less of a neat authoritarian axis and more of a messy love triangle,” wrote The Economist.
As Putin made clear in his press statement in Pyongyang, Russia is eager to get US attention and rattle Western support for Ukraine, even opening the door to North Korean soldiers joining the fighting there. For Putin, the goal is to divide and limit Western support for Ukraine, and by heightening inter-Korean confrontation, they may push South Korea to limit its indirect military flows to Ukraine.
But looking more closely at the Kim-Putin public display of affection, there are also reasons to question its depth and even durability beyond the imperative created by the Ukraine war. Rather than a declaration of shared hatred for the United States – though that clearly exists – this is a desperate pact among two deeply isolated regimes.
The North Korean regime sits atop an impoverished populace that suffers from malnutrition and economic malaise, siphons off vital resources into an expensive nuclear and missile program, and creates showcase projects to maintain loyalty among its elite.
Russia, despite the tenuous recent success of its invasion forces, has become a military economy, funneling a large portion of its state-run economy into its defense buildup. And while Russia can claim some pockets of support – or at least neutrality – in the Global South, even China is wary of offering open backing for their war of aggression and clings to a mythical status as a potential peacemaker.
For Russia, the open support from Pyongyang is a rare exception. “We highly value North Korea’s unwavering support for Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, its solidarity with us on key international issues, and its willingness to uphold our shared priorities and views at the United Nations,” Putin wrote in an op-ed published in the North Korean communist party daily, Rodong Sinmun, just ahead of his arrival.
North Korea also offered something more concrete. As Russia’s stocks of ammunition dwindled last year and its defense industry was not able to ramp up production, the North Koreans emptied vast stores of artillery ammunition and short-range rockets, many of which are decades old and of questionable utility. US officials estimate some 10,000 containers of munitions flowed from the North’s caves to the frontlines, amounting to millions of rounds of shells.
In return, Kim Jong Un got similar gifts, not least a moment in the sun that broke his isolation. The Russians also offered means to crack the UN sanctions regime, from a move to dismantle the international body that monitors sanctions against North Korea to opening the taps on the flow of oil and other inputs and allowing North Koreans to be used as cheap labor in Russia (and in China). The North Koreans are being merged into Russia’s sanctions-evasion system, including financial settlements that hide their transactions.
Perhaps more ominously, the Russians have almost abandoned their previous commitment to non-proliferation and denuclearization. Russian diplomats used to be staunch guardians of these principles, all during the years of the Six-Party talks. Now, they are providing active help to North Korea’s long-range missile development, thinly clothed as aiding satellite launches but in reality allowing Pyongyang to threaten the continental United States with nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles.
This is a serious shift and one with potentially dangerous consequences, as the South Korean editorial pointed out. But it should also be understood that the Russians – and their Chinese partners – are contemptuous of the North Korean regime, something this writer has heard in no uncertain terms in visits to Russia before the war. In conversations with Russian experts on the region, they made fun of the regime, seeing it as an extreme throwback to the worst days of Stalin’s personality cult and an unreliable actor.
There may be limits to their cooperation, though for now, this is a bargain that meets the needs of both. Beijing, uneasy as it may be, is not ready to block it.
For the US-Japan-South Korea triangle, the challenge will be to offer each other enhanced security and reassurance against the threat of conflict while being supportive of the efforts, fragile as they may be, of the South Korea-Japan-China triangle to avoid war.
Daniel Sneider is a Lecturer of International Policy and East Asian Studies at Stanford University and a Non-Resident Distinguished Fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America. The views expressed here are the author’s alone.
Photo from the Office of the President of Russia.
keia.org · · June 20, 2024
19. North Korea building border ‘wall’, satellite images reveal
I understand the ROK military has been monitoring the movements/activity since April.
I am trying to figure out the military utility for these "walls." They surely have no real value in defense. They will be bypassed during any counterattack and if they did need to be reduced for some reason our engineers could do so in short order but it does not appear they would need to. Regardless, we are not going to counterattack until we defeat the front line attacks and by then they will not have any troops defending these walls.
Is this symbolic as Dr. Ramon Pacheco Pardo notes. Is it "busy work" for the troops and local workers?
But whenever I see something like this I always ask why they are showing us this and what it is that they do not want us to see? What are they diverting our attention from? The regime is masterful at denial and deception.
See the imagery at the link: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2qq7x594vqo
North Korea building border ‘wall’, satellite images reveal
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2qq7x594vqo
13 hours ago
By Jake Horton, Yi Ma & Daniele Palumbo,
BBC Verify
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BBC
North Korea is building sections of what appears to be a wall in several places near its border with South Korea, new satellite images reveal.
Images analysed by BBC Verify also show that land inside the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ) has been cleared, which experts say could be a violation of the long-standing truce with South Korea.
The DMZ is a 4km (2.5 miles) wide buffer zone between North and South Korea, who are still technically at war having never signed a peace treaty. The DMZ is split in two, with each side controlled by the respective nations.
This recent activity is “unusual”, according to experts, and comes at a time of rising tensions between the two countries.
“At this point we can only speculate that North Korea is looking to strengthen its military presence and fortifications along the border,” says Shreyas Reddy, a correspondent at the specialist site NK News, based in Seoul.
BBC Verify commissioned high-resolution satellite imagery of a 7km stretch of the border as part of a project to look at changes North Korea was making to the area.
These images appear to show at least three sections where barriers have been erected near the DMZ, covering a total of about 1km close to the eastern end of the border.
It’s possible that there has been further barrier construction along other stretches of the border.
The exact date construction began is unclear due to a lack of previous high-resolution imagery in the area. However, these structures were not visible in an image captured in November 2023.
“My personal assessment is that this is the first time they've ever built a barrier in the sense of separating places from each other,” Dr Uk Yang, a military and defence expert at Seoul’s Asan Institute for Policy Studies told the BBC.
“Back in the 1990s, North Korea had set up the anti-tank walls to deter the advance of tanks in case war broke out. But recently, North Korea has been setting up walls 2-3m high, and they don't look like the anti-tank walls,” Dr Yang says.
“The shape of the walls suggests that they are not just obstacles [for tanks], but are intended to divide an area,” adds Dr Yang, who reviewed the satellite images.
There is also evidence of land clearance within the North Korean side of the DMZ.
The latest satellite imagery of the eastern end of the boundary shows what appears to be a newly created access road.
In drawing the precise northern boundary of the DMZ in the map above, we have adopted the BBC’s research on border mapping. This is because there are slight variations in the available maps of the boundary. However, all the versions we’ve located show the land clearance taking place within the DMZ.
An official from South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said in a recent briefing that the military had identified ongoing activity related to the “reinforcement of tactical roads, the laying of mines and the clearing of wasteland”.
There have been previous reports of land being cleared at several other locations inside the North Korean-controlled side of the DMZ.
“The land clearing could be intended for both military and non-military aspects”, says Prof Kil Joo Ban of the Ilmin International Relations Institute, Korea University.
"It allows observatory posts to be easily established," he says "for North Korea to monitor military activities in South Korea" and to spot "defectors who attempt to cross the border to South Korea."
Getty
The leaders of North Korea and South Korea last met in 2018
“It is unusual to build structures in the DMZ and may be a violation of the armistice without prior consultation,” according to Prof Victor Cha, the senior vice president for Asia and Korea at at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
The Korean War ended in 1953 with an armistice, in which both sides pledged not to "execute any hostile act within, from, or against the demilitarised zone”. But there was no final peace settlement.
While reunification has seemed unlikely for years, this had always been the stated goal of North Korean leaders until the start of 2024, when Kim Jong Un announced that his country would no longer pursue that ambition.
Some experts called the remarks “unprecedented” and saw a significant policy change when Mr Kim labelled South Korea as a "principal enemy" at the beginning of this year.
Since then, the North has also started to remove symbols representing the unity of the two countries - such as demolishing monuments and erasing references to reunification on government websites.
“North Korea doesn’t really need more barriers to prevent a strike from the South but by erecting these border barriers, the North is signalling that it doesn’t seek reunification,” says Dr Ramon Pacheco Pardo, head of European and International Studies at Kings College London.
Some experts also say this aligns with Mr Kim’s broader actions.
“North Korea is not even pretending to want to negotiate with the United States or South Korea, and has rebuffed the recent attempts by Japan to engage in talks,” says Dr Edward Howell, Korean Peninsula researcher at Oxford.
“With North Korea’s warming relations with Russia, we should not be surprised if inter-Korean provocations increase this year.”
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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