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During the pandemic, homebuyers were looking for larger homes—and many could afford them. Builders responded to that demand and created bigger spaces to help people with things like working from home, setting up home gyms, and having extra rooms for virtual school. Now, with affordability as tight as it is, builders are turning their focus to smaller single-family homes. Data from the Census shows how significant this trend toward smaller new homes has been over the last couple of years (see graph):.
But why would builders want to build smaller homes right now? At the end of the day, builders are going to focus on building homes that meet current market demand – because they want to build what they know will sell. And the number one thing homebuyers are looking for right now is better affordability. Since smaller homes typically come with smaller price tags, both buyers and builders have shifted their focus to homes with less square footage. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports: “. . . home buyers are looking for homes around 2,070 square feet, compared to 2,260 20 years ago.” And according to Orphe Divounguy, Senior Economist at Zillow:
“Not only are cash-strapped buyers continually seeking out lower-cost options, but developers are changing what type and size of home they're producing to try and meet that need."
In metro Portland with our urban growth boundary and runaway permitting costs and times etc, our land costs are so high it makes it very tough to build starter homes. As one luxury builder told me recently, "Rob, when you and I started in this business I could to the City of Portland and get all my permits for $49 and it took 3 hours. Now its about $100,000 and takes a year or more".
I dont see this getting any easier.
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