|
Last year, low inventory suppressed sales, as buyers had so few homes to choose from. This year, however, is an entirely different scenario, with sellers flooding the market with willing buyers ready to go. More listings would theoretically temper prices, but attractive listings are moving quickly with so much pent-up buyer demand. The increase in homes for sale is helping buyers find what they are looking for, and the days listed are plummeting.
Deschutes County Listings
This morning, the inventory of single-family homes in Deschutes County experienced a notable surge, jumping from 53 to 841. This is the most significant weekly increase since 2024. Despite this influx of properties, pending sales remained robust, with seventy-one homes placed under contract this week. The days on the market for these properties fell to six, indicating a high demand. One hundred three properties closed, with the median days listed at sixteen. The median list price for active inventory is $824k, $1000 less than last week, while the pending median price is $709k, up 20k from last week. The closed median sale price this week is $715k, up 39k. The active, pending, and closed sales averages are $1,174,168, $837,579, and $857,240.
Crook County Listings
In Crook County, the inventory of single-family listings declined by six to 114, indicating a demand that surpasses supply. A robust seventeen pending sales occurred this week, with properties spending an average of thirty-one days on the market. Nine transactions closed this week. The median sales price for active, pending, and closed sales were $649k, $498k, and $491k, all increases from the previous week. The averages were $980k, $695k, and $842k, respectively, and are up from the last week. It's important to note that Crook County has a diverse inventory of homes, including those with large acreage and the desirable Brasada Ranch golf community. With the smaller pool of active and closed or pending transactions, it only takes a few higher-end sales to impact the numbers significantly.
Jefferson County Listings
The number of single-family homes for sale in Jefferson County remained stable at 80, with three pending sales and five closed transactions. The median days on the market for pending sales were only thirteen, with the closed transactions at twenty-eight. The pending list prices were $455k, $548k, and $625k; the median sold price was $599,500.
Market Trends
The recent economic data has all but eliminated the possibility of a Fed rate cut in 2024, with the narrative from Jerome Powell today likely more hawkish than recent Fed meetings. Dubbed the "Powell Pivot," Jerome Powell talked of tightening financial conditions back in November, doing the work of the Fed in helping to fight inflation. In a fit of irrational exuberance, Wall Street interpreted the "Powell Pivot" to mean up to seven rate cuts in 2024, starting in March, and financial conditions immediately eased through year-end 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. Even the most bullish analysts today call for no more than one rate drop this year, with many more increasing the odds of an increase. The likely scenario is the Fed holding the overnight rate right where it is. For 30-year mortgages, watch the 10-year Treasury for clues about where rates are heading. This morning, the 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage national average is 7.51%, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.665%. As the 10-year Treasury yield increases, so do mortgage interest rates.
Deschutes County Over $2M
This week's robust activity in Central Oregon illustrates that buyers have accepted higher rates and are responding to increased selection from increased availability. While a significant spike in rates or a pivot to lower rates would likely change the current momentum, stability in the mortgage market, with rates staying higher for longer, is more likely. You can rest assured that Wall Street will be looking for any glimmer of hope or a dovish tone from the Fed today. Jerome Powell has been particularly reticent to speak hawkishly; however, with inflation rising, unemployment low, and GDP flatlining, the Fed is between a rock and a hard place. As I have said, since the end of 2023, I do not expect a rate pivot this year, so strategize your home buying and selling accordingly!
| 
