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Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners


Quotes of the Day:


"Influence operations are not just about changing minds; they're about changing behavior." 
– Michael Morell

"The most dangerous error is failure to recognize our own tendency to error."
 – B. H. Liddell Hart

"Not even a mighty warrior can break a frail arrow when it is multiplied and supported by its fellows. As long as you brothers support one another and render assistance to one another, your enemies can never gain the victory over you. But if you fall away from each other your enemy can brake you like frail arrows, one at a time."
– Genghis Khan


1. US special operations leaders are having to do more with less and learning from the war in Ukraine

2. There’s Not Enough Power for America’s High-Tech Ambitions

3. Moscow hiring gangsters to sabotage Western factories helping Ukraine?

4. Ukraine's pilots are flying high-risk 'wild weasel' missions first developed in the Vietnam War by the USAF, says defense analyst

5. The U.S. Felon Succeeding Putin’s Notorious ‘Chef’

6. THE MONTH IN GREAT POWER COMPETITION ECONOMICS EDITION – A Monthly Report on Great Power Activities and Strategic Intent

7. Henry Huiyao Wang: China Can Play a Greater role in Mediating Major International Conflicts

8. US General: 'Russia will not stop with Ukraine unless they're stopped in Ukraine'

9. Special Forces told about the operation on the left bank of the Kherson region

10. Israel–Hamas War (Iran) Update, May 11, 2024

11. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 11, 2024

12. She Was at the Top of the State Department. Now She’s Ready to Talk.

13. Biden 'is offering Israel top secret intelligence detailing exact locations of Hamas leaders and their hidden tunnels in bid to stave off full-scale invasion of Rafah'

14. The Secret to Talking to an AI Chatbot

15. Yahya Sinwar Helped Start the Gaza War. Now He’s Key to Its Endgame.

16. Fooled by AI? These firms sell deepfake detection that’s ‘REAL 100%.’

17. US Army Chief of Staff reflects on the need for “difficult choices”

18. On a D.C. sidewalk, a race to save a Marine general’s life

19. US Marine officer claims 40% of drones the IDF has shot down were their own, report saysUS Marine officer claims 40% of drones the IDF has shot down were their own, report says





1. US special operations leaders are having to do more with less and learning from the war in Ukraine


I support 100% the integration of new technology and capabilities to our SOF operational teams. However, I want to ensure we do not throw the baby out with the bathwater in pursuit of what people think might be the silver bullets. The only silver bullets for SOF in today's operational environments lie in the minds of men and women who possess an unconventional and irregular warfare mindset.


Note the discussion of the real numbers of the SOF drawdown below.


“Now that we have run out of money we have to think.”

― Winston Churchill

Irregular and unconventional warfare require deep thinking and understanding. We not only have to outfight our enemies, we have to out think them.


Some of my thoughts:


All new technology and conceptual advances should not only support high end counterterrorism, counter proliferation, direct action, and special reconnaissance activities but they should be evaluated for their efficacy in supporting the two "SOF Trinities" in the Special Warfare side of SOF.


The Two SOF Trinities:
(1) Missions
Irregular Warfare,
Unconventional Warfare,
Support to Political Warfare

(2) The comparative advantage of SOF:
Influence,
Governance,
Support to Indigenous Forces and Populations 

My view: I am a great believer in the contributions that unconventional warfare can make to US national security when employed appropriately. I believe irregular warfare is the military contribution (the whole of the military and not SOF alone) to political warfare. Political warfare (George Kennan and Paul Smith) is the way I think we should characterize strategic competition in the gray zone of strategic competition below the threshold of war. And I believe that SOF's contribution to irregular warfare is through the application of its special warfare capabilities, primarily and broadly best described as unconventional warfare and foreign internal defense, psychological operations, and civil affairs operations. And yes, counterterrorism against violent extremist organizations is still a major component as well. (as is crisis response). And I would add that some elements of unconventional warfare (working through, by, and with indigenous forces to create dilemmas for our adversaries), psychological operations, civil affairs, special reconnaissance, and direct action will play important supporting roles to the joint force in large scale combat operations. Irregular warfare will always be an element of large scale combat operations in the rear area of friends and enemies, on the periphery, and in adjacent and offset locations that affect the parties to the conflict, and in post conflict operations.
 
However, I was recently reminded by a fellow retired Army Colonel that many of us seem to be applying the moniker of irregular and unconventional to everything. Do we need "unconventional multi domain operations?" Drones and electronic warfare, cyber and long range precision strikes, do not belong solely as components of irregular warfare even if their "newness" (for those who are just discovering them) make them seem irregular or unconventional. They are tools of warfare across the spectrum of conflict, e.g., part of irregular warfare and large scale combat operations. "Newness" does not make something irregular or unconventional. In fact irregular and unconventional warfare are actually "old" but timeless as at the root they focus on operations in the human domain (which we have decided not to recognize as a distinct domain for various reasons but I digress and deflect).
 
In 2008 the National Defense Strategy recognized the requirement for the Department of Defense (DOD) to “display a mastery of irregular warfare comparable to that which we possess in conventional combat.”  
 
In 2008 Secretary of Defense Robert Gates identified the lack of IW focus problem. Writing in his memoir, Duty: Memoirs of a Secretary at War, he said:
 
“In the spring of 2008, the vital issue of the military services’ preoccupation with planning, equipping, and training for future major wars with other nation-states, while assigning lesser priority to current conflicts and all other forms of conflict, such as irregular or asymmetric war, came to a head. It went to the heart of every other fight with the Pentagon I have described. In my four and a half years as secretary, this was one of the few issues where I had to take on the chairman and the entire Joint Chiefs of Staff.”

I would characterize the threats we face in terms of the Gray Zone as a spectrum of cooperation, competition, and conflict in that space between peace and war. We seek and desire cooperation, we have to be able to compete, and while we want to avoid conflict we must prepare for it. One of the important forms of conflict can be described by revolution, resistance, insurgency, terrorism, and civil war (RRIT & CW)) with our adversaries from AQ to ISIS to the Russian Little Green Men to the Iran Action Network or China’s PLA are all executing strategies of modern unconventional warfare, with their own unique characteristics, to exploit the conditions of revolution, resistance, insurgency, terrorism and civil war (RRIT &CW) to achieve their strategic political objectives.

We face strategic competition, not only among state actors and state and non-state actors but also in two competing ideas - one is the national interest to maintain a stable rules based international nation-state system based on respect for and protection of sovereignty. This idea can be supported in part through the application of one of the major special warfare activities: foreign internal defense in which SOF and other US military and government agencies seek to assist friends, partners, and allies in their own defense and development programs so that they can defend themselves against lawlessness, subversion, insurgency, and terrorism that would threaten their sovereignty. The other idea is a fundamental human right which is the right of a people to seek self determination of government and this can be supported by the special warfare activity of unconventional warfare which consists of activities to enable a resistance or insurgency to coerce, disrupt, or overthrow a government or occupying power. These two competing ideas must be reconciled through the correct application of national statecraft and political warfare, supported by special warfare in the gray zone.

We still need the scalpel of surgical strike to capture/kill high value targets wherever necessary to support US national security.


Political Warfare
 
George Kennan:
“Political warfare is the logical application of Clausewitz's doctrine in time of peace. In broadest definition, political warfare is the employment of all the means at a nation's command, short of war, to achieve its national objectives. Such operations are both overt and covert. They range from such overt actions as political alliances, economic measures (as ERP--the Marshall Plan), and "white" propaganda to such covert operations as clandestine support of "friendly" foreign elements, "black" psychological warfare and even encouragement of underground resistance in hostile states.”
http://academic.brooklyn.cuny.edu/history/johnson/65ciafounding3.htm
 
Paul Smith:
 "Political warfare is the use of political means to compel an opponent to do one's will, based on hostile intent. The term political describes the calculated interaction between a government and a target audience to include another state's government, military, and/or general population. Governments use a variety of techniques to coerce certain actions, thereby gaining relative advantage over an opponent. The techniques include propaganda and psychological operations (PSYOP), which service national and military objectives respectively. Propaganda has many aspects and a hostile and coercive political purpose. Psychological operations are for strategic and tactical military objectives and may be intended for hostile military and civilian populations." Smith, Paul A., On Political War (Washington: National Defense University Press, 1989), p. 3. https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a233501.pdf
 
 
“Irregular Warfare Thinking”
 
Because IW is the dominant form of war in the emergent human domain. 
 
We need to infuse “irregular warfare thinking”* into DOD and “political warfare thinking” into the US government.
 
*What is “Irregular warfare thinking?” It is thinking about the human element in the full spectrum of competition and conflict up to and including conventional and nuclear war. It includes, but is not limited to, all aspects of lawlessness, subversion, insurgency, terrorism, political resistance, non-violent resistance, political violence, urban operations, stability operations, post-conflict operations, cyber operations, operations in the information environment (e.g., strategic influence through information advantage, information and influence activities, public diplomacy, psychological operations, military information support operations, public affairs), working through, with, and by indigenous forces and populations, in irregular warfare, political warfare, economic warfare, alliances, diplomacy, and competitive statecraft in all regions of the world. 
 
Irregular warfare is the military contribution to political warfare. Political warfare is the action of the whole of government in strategic competition.
 
 
•      Revolution is an attempt to modify the existing political system at least partially through unconstitutional or illegal use of force or protest.
–     (Page xvi) https://www.soc.mil/ARIS/books/pdf/CasebookV2S.pdf
•      Insurgency (or revolutionary warfare), then, is used to describe the means by which a revolution is attempted or achieved.
–     (Page xvi) https://www.soc.mil/ARIS/books/pdf/CasebookV2S.pdf
•      Resistance is a form of conflict involving the collective and subversive efforts of participants against an authority or structure. Broad in conceptual scope, but also limited in reach, resistance can be carried out through either violent or nonviolent means (or both) on either an international or an intranational scale.
–     (Page 7) https://www.soc.mil/ARIS/books/pdf/typology-resistance.pdf
 
Note that the JP-1, Warfighting spends more time discussing irregular warfare than it does traditional warfare in the warfare section although the rest of the publication defaults to traditional warfare which is of course the natural bias of DOD and the Services.



US special operations leaders are having to do more with less and learning from the war in Ukraine

AP · May 11, 2024



FORT LIBERTY, N.C. (AP) — Forced to do more with less and learning from the war in Ukraine, U.S. special operations commanders are juggling how to add more high-tech experts to their teams while still cutting their overall forces by about 5,000 troops over the next five years.

The conflicting pressures are forcing a broader restructuring of the commando teams, which are often deployed for high-risk counterterrorism missions and other sensitive operations around the world. The changes under consideration are being influenced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including lessons learned by British special operations forces there.

U.S. Army Special Operations Command, which bears the brunt of the personnel cuts, is eyeing plans to increase the size of its Green Beret teams — usually about 12 members — to bring in people with more specialized and technical abilities. One possibility would be the addition of computer software experts who could reprogram drones or other technical equipment on the fly.

But similar changes could ripple across all the military services.

“A 12-person detachment might be upgunned,” said Gen. Bryan Fenton, commander of U.S. Special Operations Command. He said an Air Force pilot, Navy ship driver, cryptologist or cyber expert may be needed as battlefields become more challenging and high tech.

The United States is “taking a lot of lessons learned out of the experience in Ukraine, mostly through the eyes of our U.K. special operations partners, who not only have done that in their formations, but they’ve also learned very quickly that they needed other elements of their joint force,” he told The Associated Press in an interview.


As an example, he said British commandos needed Royal Air Force pilots to help advise on drone operations and Royal Navy teammates “to help them understand, more than a SOF (special operations forces) teammate could, the way a ship in the Black Sea navigates.”

The bulk of the cuts stem from the Army’s decision to reduce the size of its force by about 24,000 and restructure its troops as the U.S. shifts from counterterrorism and counterinsurgency to focus more on large-scale combat operations. The Army also has struggled to meet recruitment goals and had to reduce the overall size of its force.

Army Special Operations Command, which Fenton said is absorbing about 4,000 cuts ordered over the past year and a half, is looking at bringing in people with high-tech skills.

“I think one of the questions is how much can you teach a Green Beret versus some of these specialties are extremely technical,” said Maj. Gen. Patrick Roberson, deputy commander of the command at Fort Liberty in North Carolina. “You can teach a person about how to use a drone. But then to say, I want to have a software engineer program that drone, that’s something different.”

The cuts to Army special operations forces have triggered some congressional opposition, including during recent Capitol Hill hearings where lawmakers noted the impact at Fort Liberty. Fenton also spoke bluntly at the hearings about the growing demand for special operations forces.

He said U.S. regional commanders around the world consistently want more and that cutting the forces means “we’ll be able to meet less of what they demand. And I think we owe the secretary of defense our assessment as we go forward.”

For years, during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, the number of special operations forces and support staff grew, particularly since they were often spread out in small, remote bases where they needed additional security and other logistical help. Now, Pentagon leaders say the numbers can shrink a bit.

Fenton said a cut of about 2,000 personnel in special operations was ordered by the department about a year and a half ago, including about 750 in the Army. That was followed this year by a cut of 3,000 in Army special operations. The cuts are to be spread out across five years.

“So the real Army reduction in totality is almost 4,000, and the remaining 1,000 will come from the joint force, SEALs, Marine raiders, other Army units,” said Fenton.

For Roberson, the question is where to cut his Army troops. “Cuts have a way of crystallizing your focus and your view of, okay, what’s important to me? What’s the future? What do I really need to have,” he said in an interview in his Fort Liberty office.

He and other Army leaders said a significant percentage of the special forces cuts are in slots that are already open so would not affect existing personnel. Roberson estimated that at least 30% of the cuts are in those open jobs.

For other reductions, he said he is looking for redundancies, including among trainers and instructors. Army leaders have also said that psychological operations and civil affairs, both part of the Army command, are facing cuts.

“At the end of 20 years of war, it’s always a good time to look back and say, OK, what did I have when this started? What did I learn? What did I do, what was important to me?” Roberson said.

And even if all teams are not boosted in size, he said the Army needs to be able to quickly augment them with specialists. In some cases a mission might need just a couple technical support members, and other times could need six or seven, he said.

More broadly, as his forces absorb the cuts, their training must also be changed or increased to include more technology, robotics or sensors and signals intelligence information, Roberson added. Right now, he said, his troops are experimenting with the various options at the National Training Center in California and out in the field in Iraq and Syria.

Adaptability is the key, he said, and “we have to figure out how we’re going to make the most of this.”

AP · May 11, 2024



2. There’s Not Enough Power for America’s High-Tech Ambitions


Uh oh.


I suppose we will look back on the decision to no longer build nuclear power plants in the US as the inflection point that keeps us from realizing our high tech ambitions.


Here in VIrginia, we are watching the construction of a huge new Amazon data center less than one mile from our house. We periodically lose power during storms because of weak infrastructure. Will the utilities improve the local infrastructure to support these data centers and will we as local citizens benefit from that?


  1. BUSINESS

  2. ENERGY & OIL

There’s Not Enough Power for America’s High-Tech Ambitions

Georgia is a magnet for data centers and other cutting-edge industries, but vast electricity demands are clashing with the newcomers’ green-energy goals

https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/data-centers-energy-georgia-development-7a5352e9?mod=hp_lead_pos7

By David UbertiFollow

May 12, 2024 5:30 am ET

ATLANTA—Bill Thomson needs power fast. The problem is that many of the other businesspeople racing into Georgia do too. 

Thomson heads marketing and product management at DC Blox, which in recent years built a string of data centers in midsize cities across the fast-growing Southeast. The company more recently set its sights on Atlanta—the would-be capital of the region—joining a slew of tech and industrial firms piling into the state.

Vying for a piece of one of America’s hottest markets, those businesses tend to have two things in common. One is that they represent a U.S. economy increasingly driven by advanced manufacturing, cloud computing and artificial intelligence. The other is that they promise to hoover up huge amounts of electricity.

That combination means Georgia’s success in luring this development comes with a side effect: Power is a big source of tension. The clean-energy goals of companies and governments are running up against the need for projects to break ground fast. So far, climate advocates fear the imperatives of growth mean more fossil fuels.  

Georgia’s main utility, Georgia Power, has boosted its demand projections sixteen-fold and is pushing ahead on a hotly contested plan to burn more natural gas. Critics warn it will yield higher bills and unnecessary carbon emissions for decades. Some companies are scrambling to secure bespoke renewable-energy deals to power their development. 

One major source of disruption is data centers. The facilities are ballooning in size as people spend more of their waking hours online and companies digitize everything from factory processes to fast-food drive-throughs. All that computing requires power—and for firms like DC Blox to lock it in as quickly as possible. 

“Generally,” Thomson said, “we find the guys with the fastest power win.” 


The DC Blox project in Douglas County, west of Atlanta, is one of several data centers being developed in the area. PHOTO: DC BLOX

Similar quandaries are rippling through other hubs of the new American economy, with utilities in Tennessee and the Carolinas forecasting their own unexpected surges in load growth. U.S. power usage is projected to expand by 4.7% annually over the next five years, according to a review of federal fillings by the consulting firm Grid Strategies. That is up from a previous estimate of 2.6%.

The projections come after efficiency gains kept electricity demand roughly flat over the past 15 years, allowing the power sector to limit emissions in large part through coal-plant closures.

“We haven’t seen this in a generation,” said Arne Olson, a senior partner at consulting firm Energy and Environmental Economics. “As an industry, we’ve almost forgotten how to deal with load growth of this magnitude.” 

For states like Georgia, the fear is missing out on what could be once-in-a-generation investments. Wall Street is salivating over an artificial-intelligence-fueled tech bonanza, while Washington is throwing billions of dollars into domestic manufacturing.

The added wrinkle is that it is all happening as many parts of America—corporate America included—are trying to wean themselves off fossil fuels.

“These companies all have clean-energy goals,” said Patty Durand, a Georgia Power critic who is campaigning to be a utility regulator in the state. “Those goals are at risk if Georgia Power gets what it wants.”

The Peach State’s energy quandary stems from the type of economic dynamism that many counterparts would envy. Its growth has consistently outpaced the nation’s. A smaller portion of Georgians are jobless than the U.S. average, while their incomes tend to be rising faster.

State and local economic-development teams have courted large businesses to set up shop with sales pitches that have included generous financial incentives. Rail lines, ports and America’s largest air hub also provide access to faraway customers. 

Pat Wilson, commissioner of the Georgia Department of Economic Development, said energy is increasingly part of those discussions with newcomers. Officials tout the newly expanded Plant Vogtle, America’s largest nuclear power plant, as a sign the state is ready for long-term growth. 

“We have a utility partner to make sure you can meet your energy needs on day one,” Wilson said.

Those needs include affordability, reliability and sustainability for firms like Aurubis, a German metals giant building a recycling plant in the outskirts of Augusta.

U.S. energy prices are far lower than those in Europe. That is a boon for Aurubis, which uses mammoth equipment to shred old circuit boards and electrical wiring, melt the scraps, and separate copper from other materials.


David Schultheis is in charge of a new recycling plant being built by German metals giant Aurubis in the outskirts of Augusta. PHOTO: KENDRICK BRINSON FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

The company also boasts aggressive emissions-reductions targets for its power-intensive smelters. At its roughly $820 million Georgia plant, Aurubis will use up to 31 megawatts of electricity, enough to power thousands of homes. 

“Not every project itself has to reduce carbon emissions,” said David Schultheis, president of the Georgia facility. “But the overall set of projects has to guide us there.” 

The firm has made strides to that end in Europe by bolstering its usage of wind or solar power in a portfolio stretching from Belgium to Bulgaria. In Georgia, Schultheis pointed to Plant Vogtle, visible just 12 miles away, as a symbol of reliable energy. 

Companies prize nuclear power plants, since they produce carbon-free energy and—unlike wind or solar power—don’t depend on the weather. But the projected power needs of new businesses in the state far exceed the expected output of the plant’s recently added reactors, the second of which went online last month.

Despite Aurubis’ proximity to Vogtle, which is co-owned by Georgia Power, it is also difficult to trace the source of electricity that reaches the substation on the German company’s property nearby. Schultheis instead relies on the utility’s overall power production for his carbon accounting, meaning the Georgia site will add more to Aurubis’ carbon footprint.

“We get the full grid—the mix of the grid—of what they produce,” he said.

Many of the battles over that energy mix have been fought in a windowless room in one of the imposing government buildings crammed into Atlanta’s South Downtown area. That is home to meetings of the Georgia Public Service Commission, which oversees utilities including Georgia Power.

The investor-owned utility last fall made an unusual update to its periodic resource proposal to regulators. Citing a boom in new business customers, Georgia Power boosted its projected demand growth over the next seven years from less than 400 megawatts to 6,600 megawatts, or about a third more than the utility’s total capacity at the beginning of 2023.

To make up the gap, the company put forward a plan that includes adding battery storage, buying power from fossil-fuel-burning plants in Mississippi and Florida, and building three new gas-fired turbines in Georgia. 

The Southern Co.subsidiary has since sparred with renewable-energy-minded organizations as divergent as local municipal governments, the Sierra Club and the Pentagon. 

Opponents argued the utility should accelerate demand-side responses, such as allowing customers to dial down energy usage depending on costs. Others proposed more-aggressive use of solar power and batteries, or so-called “virtual power plants” that allow consumers with solar panels to sell energy back to the grid. 

In Georgia Power’s view, adding gas is key to providing stable power and quickly ramping up electricity for moments of peak usage on the hottest days of summer and coldest days of winter. That is especially crucial given the utility’s gradual retirement of coal-fired plants.

The state is attracting so many power users, Georgia Power contends, that new investments will actually suppress ratepayers’ bills. 

“We anticipate that we will not need to increase rates to cover the costs of these resources that we’re adding,” said Aaron Mitchell, the company’s vice president of pricing and planning. 


A view of the Aurubis recycling plant. PHOTO: KENDRICK BRINSON FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Some Georgians are skeptical, noting utilities’ previous overestimates of demand growth. Power companies have a financial incentive to pursue capital projects, critics say, and overbuilding now would risk saddling ratepayers with assets that have decadeslong shelf lives. 

The recent history of energy development in the state has also been rocky. The Georgia Power-led project to expand Plant Vogtle, the first U.S. nuclear development in decades, ran up more than $30 billion in costs and lagged years behind schedule.

Since the project’s early stages in 2007, the 12-month moving average of residential power costs for the utility’s customers has surged 68%, according to the Georgia Center for Energy Solutions. That outpaced inflation, as well as cost increases for industrial and commercial customers.

Price pressures and climate fears have pushed communities such as suburban Atlanta’s DeKalb County, which has pledged to slash emissions, to lobby regulators for more aggressive oversight of the investor-owned utility. Ted Terry, a DeKalb County commissioner, warned that the state is using a 20th-century energy playbook while trying to attract 21st-century industries.

The state’s energy market “is not working for all of us,” Terry said. Regulators approved much of Georgia Power’s plan on April 16.

‘Essential to our economy’


The DC Blox data center in Myrtle Beach, S.C., is one of the firm’s five facilities across the Southeast. More are on the way. PHOTO: DC BLOX

The tension hasn’t slowed businesses’ rush to the state.

Alphabet’s Google has operated data centers in Georgia for more than two decades, gradually expanding its footprint. In 2021, Microsoft established a new U.S. data-center region emanating from greater Atlanta. An Amazon Web Services spokesman said the firm recently bought land in the Peach State and is evaluating possible server-farm locations. 

All three firms purchase massive amounts of renewable energy to help power their facilities around the world. All three are also members of the Clean Energy Buyers Association, a trade group pushing utilities, including Georgia Power, to go green.

Priya Barua, the organization’s senior director of market and policy innovation, said the added difficulty in much of the Southeast is that traditionally regulated power markets sometimes give firms fewer opportunities to shop around for wholesale electricity. 

“They’re more limited in how they can get clean energy,” she said. 

Some analysts believe that could change as companies exert more pressure on regulators and developers strike deals with independent power producers. As part of Georgia Power’s recent planning update, the utility said it would work with trade groups like Barua’s to explore how commercial and industrial customers might build or contract their own clean-energy projects in the future. 

Those setups have been confined in recent years to nonprofit electricity cooperatives that tend to serve rural areas. Instagram-owner Meta, for example, joined with a Georgia co-op and solar developer Silicon Ranch as part of a broader deal to power data centers. 

But even in a more-competitive market, those deals may remain out of reach for most companies, such as DC Blox, the data-center operator building two facilities on opposing outskirts of Atlanta. 

Founded in 2014, the firm constructed its first data center in an old paper plant in Chattanooga. Power usage: one megawatt. DC Blox has since built out a network from Myrtle Beach, S.C., to Huntsville, Ala., leasing space to municipalities, universities and manufacturers. 


Aurubis uses mammoth equipment to shred old circuit boards and electrical wiring, melt the scraps, and separate copper from other materials. PHOTO: KENDRICK BRINSON FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Now, the company is big-game hunting for big-tech customers. The larger of its two Atlanta-area sites could reach up to 300 megawatts. 

“The smart states and smart utility commissions are going to figure out how to do this because this isn’t going to stop,” said Thomson, the DC Blox executive. “AI is coming next.” 

DC Blox executives see themselves as part of Atlanta’s evolution from logistics center to the digital hub of the Southeast. Nowhere is that more apparent than west of the city in Douglas County, the most sought-after corner of the region’s data-center market. 

Local officials including Chris Pumphrey, president of the public-private Elevate Douglas Economic Partnership, began seeking out data centers about a decade ago. While the facilities employ few full-time employees, operators and tenants pour property and sales taxes into public coffers. Another benefit to Douglas County was that the new industry reduced truck traffic to warehouses peppering the area.

“At that period of time,” Pumphrey said, “there wasn’t this significant concern about energy.” 

These days, Douglas County is home to current or forthcoming data centers by companies including Google, Microsoft, DC Blox, Flexential and Switch. As hundreds of construction workers etch the concrete structures into sides of hills like fortresses, Pumphrey is eagerly awaiting the payoff. 

“They’re essential to our economy,” Pumphrey said. As for the energy concerns, he added, “We have to figure something out.”


Cooling towers at Plant Vogtle, a nuclear power station, are visible behind the new Aurubis facility. PHOTO: KENDRICK BRINSON FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Write to David Uberti at david.uberti@wsj.com




3. Moscow hiring gangsters to sabotage Western factories helping Ukraine?


Subversion and sabotage. Foundational principles of unconventional warfare. (or Russia's non-linear, new generation warfare or China's unrestricted warfare).



Moscow hiring gangsters to sabotage Western factories helping Ukraine?

Is Moscow hiring gangsters to sabotage Western factories supplying arms to Ukraine in latest Putin tactic?

By IAN BIRREL

PUBLISHED: 17:47 EDT, 11 May 2024 UPDATED: 19:29 EDT, 11 May 2024

Daily Mail · by Ian Birrel · May 11, 2024

Intelligence chiefs have warned ministers they fear Britain and other key Ukrainian allies are being targeted by Russian saboteurs following a series of suspicious incidents in recent months.

These include a wave of fires at arms factories and military-related industrial sites in the West that are supplying Ukraine. There have also been attacks on computer systems, train derailments and even jamming of satellite signals for civil air flights.

Last night, a senior British security source said Western intelligence agencies feared a spate of industrial fires were connected to Moscow, saying 'the b******s' were trying to set Europe alight.

'Lots of fires that we thought were accidents and unconnected have turned out to be connected,' he said.

This source added that intelligence chiefs had warned ministers that Moscow was increasingly hiring gangsters and far-Right extremists to carry out attacks on Western interests.


Pictured: A fire ignited at a plant in Berlin containing poisonous sulphuric acid and copper cyanide that is reportedly linked to missiles supplied to Ukraine


There have also been attacks on computer systems, train derailments and even jamming of satellite signals for civil air flights (file pic)

He said Russia was acting in a more cavalier manner than in the past, even targeting military uniform suppliers. 'In terms of damage it's been marginal so far – but in terms of tactics it is very serious because they've become far more reckless.'

One Cabinet Minister insisted he could not discuss the suspected sabotage and arson attacks, even on a background basis, 'for national security reasons'.

But Tory MP Bob Seely, a Russian-speaking specialist on disinformation and member of the foreign affairs committee, said that Britain must wake up to the threat.

'We need to understand that the Russian state believes it is in conflict with the UK and other leading Western nations,' he added.

'We have to defend ourselves. We don't know the true scale of these operations. Some look amateurish – but they will get more sophisticated. They are in part for propaganda purposes to show that [Vladimir] Putin is hitting back at the West but also intended to stretch our security forces.'

Last week, Home Secretary James Cleverly expelled Moscow's long-serving defence attache and removed diplomatic protection from several Russian-owned properties being used as spy bases.

Mr Cleverly told Parliament that 'malign activities' such as leaking state documents and cyber attacks on MPs, along with the planning of sabotage actions in Bulgaria, Germany, Italy and Poland, 'bear all the hallmarks of a deliberate campaign by Russia designed to 'bring the war home' across Europe and to undermine our collective resolve to support Ukraine'.

Among recent incidents on British soil was an arson attack in March on an east London warehouse containing aid shipments for Ukraine. Two men charged with arson have been accused by prosecutors of working for the Russian government.


Intelligence chiefs have warned ministers they fear Britain and other key Ukrainian allies are being targeted by Russian saboteurs following a series of suspicious incidents in recent months (file pic)


Last week, Home Secretary James Cleverly expelled Moscow's long-serving defence attache and removed diplomatic protection from several Russian-owned properties being used as spy base

Last month, there was an explosion at a South Wales factory run by BAE Systems, Britain's biggest defence firm, which manufactures arms sent to Ukraine. Yesterday, a BAE Systems spokesman said an investigation was being carried out but 'there is no evidence of sabotage'.

Another fire broke out two days earlier at a General Dynamics plant in Pennsylvania that makes 155mm-calibre artillery shells being sent to Ukraine.

The cause had 'nothing to do with outside influence', insisted the firm's spokesman.

Earlier this month, another fire broke out at a factory near Berlin run by a firm making air defence systems supplied to Ukraine.

It took 223 firefighters to tackle the inferno, with billowing clouds of black smoke and fears of toxic contamination. Police said they suspected 'negligent arson' since there were 'no indications of sabotage or an attack'.

The wave of suspected Kremlin attacks go far wider than attacks on military supplies. Sweden, which joined Nato after the invasion of Ukraine, is investigating whether state-backed sabotage lies behind a series of train derailments.

Poland – a key supporter of Kyiv and arms supply route -– disrupted a network of saboteurs thought to be planning an attack on their rail system.

'Russia has been at war with us for a long time but people are finally seeing the seriousness of the situation,' said Keir Giles, of the Chatham House think-tank.

Russian jamming has impacted hundreds of civilian flights in Europe, especially over the Baltic States, Poland and Scandinavia. One Finnish airline suspended flights to an airport in Estonia due to consistent GPS interference.

Russia has also been accused of cyber attacks on Britain's Electoral Commission and even crashing the Royal Family's website.

One Baltic diplomatic source said: 'Moscow cannot start a concerted war against Nato but it is trying every other possible measure to challenge the West and disrupt our lives.'


There can no longer be any doubt – Putin is waging war on us

The West has been pathetically complacent over the real nature of Putin’s regime since he took power at the start of this century.

Typical was Britain’s prime minister Tony Blair, who naively brushed aside warnings about Russian espionage to rapidly embrace Putin, even giving him a pair of silver Downing Street cufflinks as a birthday gift in 2001.

Five years later Putin ordered the assassination in London of Alexander Litvinenko, a spy who had defected and detailed Kremlin killings.

Then came the 2008 invasion of Georgia, followed by his invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and illegal seizure of Crimea.

I watched these events unfolding in Kyiv and Simferopol, then saw the corpses of innocent people and even pet dogs strewn around the fields of Donbas after his goons shot down a civilian aircraft flying from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur.


Typical was Britain’s prime minister Tony Blair, who naively brushed aside warnings about Russian espionage to rapidly embrace Putin, even giving him a pair of silver Downing Street cufflinks as a birthday gift in 2001

Yet still-drowsy leaders of democracies in Washington, London, Paris and Berlin pretended Putin was a respectable leader – while greedy banks, estate agents, football clubs and lawyers helped launder the billions stolen by his patsy oligarchs.

Never mind the murder of Putin’s rivals, the crushing of democracy and human rights in Russia, atrocities inflicted by his armed forces in Syria, even the sinister use of a deadly nerve agent in Salisbury that killed an innocent British citizen.

It took the full-scale attack on Kyiv in February 2022 to finally wake most Western nations from their slumber.

Even then, the response has been hesitant and the support insufficient for the Ukrainian people on the bloodstained frontline in a war that has spiralled into an epochal global struggle between autocracy and democracy.

Now there can be no doubt: whether we like it or not, Russia is waging war on the West on many fronts – and we need to respond far more forcefully and smartly in defence of freedom

Daily Mail · by Ian Birrel · May 11, 2024



4. Ukraine's pilots are flying high-risk 'wild weasel' missions first developed in the Vietnam War by the USAF, says defense analyst


What is old is new again?


Ukraine's pilots are flying high-risk 'wild weasel' missions first developed in the Vietnam War by the USAF, says defense analyst

Business Insider · by Cameron Manley

Military & Defense

Cameron Manley

2024-05-11T11:25:46Z

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A Ukrainian Tactical Aviation pilot poses in the cockpit of his MIG-29 fighter jet at sunset in eastern Ukraine. Libkos/Getty Images

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  • Ukrainian pilots fly dangerous "wild weasel" missions to suppress Russian air defenses.
  • Advanced US-supplied missiles have played a critical role in these missions.
  • The arrival of F-16 fighter jets will help level out Russia's air superiority.


Pilots in Ukraine's Soviet-era airforce, a fraction of the size of Russia's, are using a tactic first developed by the US Air Force to contest the skies above the 600-mile frontline.

Videos in recent months appear to show Ukrainian pilots conducting so-called "wild weasel" missions.

The strategy involves jet pilots luring enemy antiaircraft defenses into targeting them with their radars. The radar waves are then traced back to their source, and the Ukrainian pilots retaliate with weapons like the US-made AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARMs) before the Russians van lock onto them with surface-to-air missiles (SAMs).

This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Become an Insider and start reading now.

Eastern Ukraine, a Ukrainian Air Force MiG-29 Wild Weasel fires off an AGM-88 HARM towards a Russian radar. pic.twitter.com/5MGYcfaRmt
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 15, 2024

Since mid-2022, the US has supplied Ukraine with HARMs, which have provided Ukrainian pilots with Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) and Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses (DEAD) capabilities.

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New footage showing an early Ukrainian SEAD mission using US-supplied and integrated AGM-88 HARMs.

UkrAF Su-27 Flankers would fly at near treetop level behind the front before launching off their HARMs.

(Summer ‘22) pic.twitter.com/IOeu7hzUxW
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) February 8, 2024

The US Air Force pioneered SEAD tactics in the Vietnam War. So-called wild weasel aircraft were tasked with destroying enemy air defense radars to clear the way for attack aircraft to fly through.

The wild weasels had radar receivers to locate enemy air defenses and were initially armed with bombs and later special missiles that could target radar.

The term "wild weasel" originated from Project Wild Weasel. This US Air Force anti-SAM strategy used direct attacks to suppress enemy air defenses, according to the National Museum of the US Air Force.


3 US Navy, McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantom II airplanes, in flight, with clouds in the distance, photographed during the Vietnam War, 1965. Stuart Lutz/Gado/Getty Images

These missions, originally called "Project Ferret" — a reference to the small predatory mammal that enters its prey's den to kill it — were renamed Project Wild Weasel so as not to be confused with the code-name "Ferret" that was used during World War II for radar countermeasures bombers.

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HARM is the latest of these air-to-surface missiles: a projectile of around 770 pounds, with a range of some 90 miles. These missiles can locate and strike enemy radar even after the radar systems have been turned off.

HARM has been used in wars in Libya, Iraq, and former Yugoslavia, The Economist previously reported.


US Marines remove a training AGM-88 High Speed Anti-Radiation Missile (HARM) from an F/A-18C Hornet. U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Anthony N. Hilkowski/Released

This experience is being put to use in Ukraine.

"Ukraine clearly is learning from Western military thought," Frederik Mertens, a Strategic Analyst at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, told Business Insider. "Ukraine is putting great emphasis on SEAD and DEAD missions."

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These missions can be "very dangerous," especially for wild weasels, he said. But the Russian air defenses are a "key target."

"This game is worth the candle," Mertens said.

But, he added Ukraine's tactics "go far beyond the classic wild weasel missions of Anti-Radiation Missile equipped aircraft."

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From special forces raids to land-launched missiles like GMLRS and ATACMS as well as UAVs of all sorts, "Ukrainians use all weapons, troops, and systems they have at their disposal to suppress and destroy Russian air defenses," Mertens said.

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Adapting Western weapons for use in Ukraine

The difficulty of adapting HARM for Ukraine is due to the incompatibility of old Soviet-era jets, such as the MIG-29 and the Su-27 fighters, with modern Western technology.

Last month, US Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante told reporters at a Washington DC conference that Ukraine had been using iPads in an attempt to make Ukrainian jets compatible with Western weapons.

He described how Ukraine's aging fighter planes could now take many Western weapons and get them to work on their aircraft as they were "basically controlled by an iPad by the pilot. They're flying it in conflict like a week after we get it to him," he said.

Ukrainian Air Force Su-27 Flanker Wild Weasel operations, seen here conducting multiple low level standoff strikes against Russian radars with US-supplied AGM-88 HARMs. pic.twitter.com/7CosjXFNkO
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 21, 2024

Since making the necessary adaptations, Ukrainian pilots have fired hundreds of HARMs at Russian air defense radar systems. However, their technique has changed, Justin Bronk, Senior Research Fellow for Airpower & Technology at the London-based think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told BI.

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"While they initially achieved a number of successful kills against Russian SAM systems and radars when first introduced; Russian SAM operators quickly adapted their tactics," Bronk said.

Now, HARM launches serve "a suppressive rather than a destructive purpose."

When launched, "the missiles force Russian SAM operators to turn off their radars and relocate to avoid being hit by them," Bronk said. "This leaves a short window within which other strike systems like HIMARS rockets or Storm Shadow missiles can get through to nearby targets with much less risk of being intercepted by the Russian SAMs."

Awaiting F-16s

While modified Soviet-era fighter jets allow Ukrainians to use HARM missiles, the modifications do not allow Ukrainians to make the most of all their features.

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"It doesn't have all the capabilities that it would on an F-16," Gen. James Hecker, commander of United States Air Forces in Europe, said previously during a roundtable at the Air Force Association's Air, Space Cyber conference.

Therefore, the delivery of F-16s will be crucial for increasing Ukrainian air superiority.


A F-16 aircraft is pictured after the first delivery of Norway's old F-16 fighter aircraft to Romania at Rygge Air Force Base, Norway on Nov. 28, 2023. Photo by OLE BERG-RUSTEN/NTB/AFP via Getty Images

Earlier this week, the Netherlands announced plans to start delivering its F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine this autumn, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said during a press briefing in Vilnius.

Denmark previously said it would begin transferring its aircraft in the summer,

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"Dealing with Russian GBAD [Ground Based Air Defense] will be crucial to enable future Ukrainian air strikes once the F-16 fighters arrive," Mertens told BI.

While the delivery of such a small number of F-16s should not be overestimated, Mertens believes they could significantly impact Crimea.

"Crimea is vulnerable: the Russians have relatively limited maneuver space on the Peninsula, resupply is dependent on the Kerch bridge, and here Putin has a lot to lose both politically and militarily," he said.

"If a limited number of fighters can have a real impact, it is here."

Ukraine Russia

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Business Insider · by Cameron Manley


5. The U.S. Felon Succeeding Putin’s Notorious ‘Chef’



The U.S. Felon Succeeding Putin’s Notorious ‘Chef’

WILD CARD

After serving time in U.S. jails following a major drug bust, Mira Terada is now following in the footsteps of Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russia’s late master of influence.


Shannon Vavra

National Security Reporter

Updated May 12, 2024 3:03AM EDT / Published May 11, 2024 11:09PM EDT 

The Daily Beast · May 12, 2024

exclusive

Photo Illustration by Thomas Levinson/The Daily Beast/Getty/Twitter

A convicted felon who was locked up in a U.S. prison for money-laundering is pulling the strings behind a sweeping Kremlin influence operation with ties to Russian intelligence, The Daily Beast has learned.

Mira Terada—a 36-year-old Russian national who has also gone by the name Oksana Vovk—was arrested at Helsinki Airport in late 2018, two years after she was implicated in a cocaine-smuggling operation that stretched from Texas to Virginia.

She later pled guilty to money-laundering charges in connection to the drug scheme, and spent more than two years in prison—an experience she later claimed had opened her eyes “to the brutality of the American judicial system, the inhumanity of American prisons and the complete indifference of the so-called liberal American society.”

But her story doesn’t stop there: upon her release and return to Russia in 2021, Terada announced that she had made the decision to head the Foundation for Battling Injustice (FBR), a non-profit established by the infamous boss of Russia’s Wagner GroupYevgeny Prigozhin. She didn’t reveal who had offered her the position, if anyone.

Prigozhin—who earned the nickname “Putin’s chef” for his catering company, which served the Kremlin—was notorious for his army of private mercenary soldiers. His side gig, however, encompassed running Russian influence operations through organizations like FBR and the Internet Research Agency (IRA), a troll farm that has interfered in U.S. presidential elections.

After Prigozhin fell from Vladimir Putin’s good graces, he died in a plane crash last year, in what appeared to be a Kremlin-ordered assassination. Now, Terada—apparently eager to fill the vacuum—has thrust herself into the spotlight, building her own influence empire from the remnants left behind by the mercenary boss.

The blonde ex-convict appears to have milked her felony sentence, capitalizing on her experience in a U.S. prison to run a network of pro-Kremlin propagandists claiming to be advocates for human rights and press freedom.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Russian private security company Wagner, in an unspecified location in Africa on Aug. 21, 2023.

Wagner Account/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

“I saw the nightmares of the US prison hell, which are diligently hushed up by the world media: torture, bullying of prisoners, the sadism of the jailers and the cold ruthlessness of the American penitentiary system,” she said in a blog post detailing her future ambitions. “I am full of strength and determination to announce that I accept the post of the head and official representative of the Foundation to Battle Injustice.”

In January, Terada convened a group of journalists from around the globe to discuss plans for a new organization allegedly dedicated to helping journalists. She called it the “Brics Journalists Association,” and spoke to her guests for 40 minutes about the group’s mission: to “provide assistance” to journalists from BRICS (the organization comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates) as well as reporters from other countries who need “help and support.”

“A Russian successor organization to Prigozhin’s influence empire.”

Terada’s operations at both FBR and the new Brics association feature a series of prongs and networks of connected pro-Kremlin individuals, some of whom have previously tried to interfere in American politics, according to U.S. officials. At the heart of the scheme is the distribution of “articles” that push pro-Kremlin narratives and anti-Western diatribes, which are parroted and recirculated by an array of Russian disinformation platforms.

The Daily Beast did not receive responses to comment requests sent to Terada, her former counsel, the FBR, and the Russian embassy for this story. The State Department and the federal attorneys who brought U.S. cases against Terada did not respond by time of publication.

Patrick Warren, Associate Professor in the John E. Walker Department of Economics at Clemson University—who has been studying Russian disinformation—told The Daily Beast that Terada appears to be trying to take up where Prigozhin left off.

This is essentially the “Russian successor organization to Prigozhin’s influence empire,” Warren told The Daily Beast.

Just this week, when the Ukrainian government announced that it had thwarted a Russian-directed plot to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky, Terada’s network hunkered down on the narrative that Moscow was not responsible.

Ukraine's President Volodymr Zelensky inspects new fortifications for Ukrainian servicemen, in Donetsk region, Ukraine, April 19, 2024.

Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Reuters

“As expected, Moscow is accused of being behind the attempted attack, but there is no evidence that the Russians participated in the conspiracy. On the other hand, the West seems quite interested in eliminating Zelensky,” one writer said in a piece published at the infobrics.org website.

The post was re-published on multiple Russian disinformation sites that appear to be tied to Terada’s network. One site that featured the post has links to the Russian Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), according to the State Department. The post was also circulated on a platform connected to Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), according to the agency.

A source familiar with the matter, who spoke with The Daily Beast on condition of anonymity, said there are signs that staffers and resources that were previously tied to Prigozhin’s IRA—the troll farm notorious for its interference in U.S. politics and the U.S. presidential election in 2016—are now working in Terada’s extended network of Russian shills.

The person familiar and their team have made their assessment with moderate confidence.

Meanwhile, U.S. officials are hunting for Terada’s associates. Terada’s organization, the FBR, has coordinated activities in the past with a mysterious Russian citizen named Aleksandr Viktorovich Ionov, who has been working with the FSB since at least mid-2018, according to U.S. officials. In 2021, Ionov sought to discuss with the FBR the feasibility of supporting a specific candidate in a 2022 gubernatorial election in the United States.

Ionov has also launched an organization that has received funding from a trust created by Russian President Vladimir Putin himself. He worked on Prigozhin’s Project Lakhta, which focused on spreading disinformation online, including through troll farms and fake online personas, according to the U.S. Treasury Department, which has sanctioned him. Terada has called the accusations against Ionov “far-fetched.”

‘Large Amounts of Cocaine’

In her January launch of the Brics Journalists Association, Terada spoke softly and melodically. A video of the virtual conference showed her wearing a whimsical outfit made of white dentelle and mesh. The cream-colored wall in the background made it look as though Terada was surrounded by a glowing halo.

While Terada appears to be seizing the limelight now, her past remains murky.

Terada previously lived in Houston, Texas and owned a Texas-based company called “STYLISH TRAVELER, LLC,” which was believed to launder the drug proceeds, according to court records. U.S. authorities first began looking into Terada in early 2016 as part of an Organized Crime and Drug Enforcement Task Force investigation.

In one incident in November of 2016, she was found in a vehicle that had been used for transporting cocaine, which was hidden in the engine compartment of the car. Terada and another alleged co-conspirator had traveled by car from Houston all the way to Vienna, Virginia, with the cocaine ostensibly concealed.

She was charged with money-laundering and one felony count of conspiracy to distribute 500 grams or more of cocaine, according to court records obtained by The Daily Beast. Investigators alleged that Terada had worked as part of an organization alongside her ex-husband “known to illegally smuggle large amounts of cocaine from the Houston, Texas area for redistribution within the Washington, D.C. region,” the affidavit in her case states. Her ex-husband had provided and received kilos of cocaine for years as part of the operation, according to court records.

Her ex-husband, who did not immediately respond to a comment request from The Daily Beast, has a lengthy criminal rap sheet. It includes felony convictions for voluntary manslaughter while armed, assault with a dangerous weapon, aggravated assault with a deadly weapon, and two convictions for possession of a controlled substance with intent to distribute, according to the Department of Justice.

Terada’s 2018 detainment and extradition from Finland came after U.S. authorities had issued an Interpol warrant for her arrest. The Russian citizen had been on her way from St. Petersburg to Spain when she was caught, according to Sputnik. After her extradition to the United States in June of 2019, Terada was held in the Alexandria Detention Center in Virginia.

Terada—or Vovk, as she was known back then—made a partial guilty plea to conspiracy to commit money-laundering. The court dismissed her other charge, and sentenced her to 30 months in prison.

A memorial for Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner mercenary group, and Dmitry Utkin, the group commander, in Moscow, Russia August 29, 2023.

Maxim Shemetov/Reuters

Doing Time

After returning to Russia in 2021, Terada claimed through her organization—the FBR—that the charges against her were “trumped up,” despite the fact that she had pleaded guilty to money-laundering.

Terada’s claim to fame—and apparent effort to build credibility as the head of an organization ostensibly focused on human rights—is about manufacturing a counterweight to the West’s focus on human rights violations in Russia, said Darren Linvill, who is tracking Terada’s organization alongside Warren.

“Just a front organization.”

“You know how in the West, we have all kinds of foundations that explore human rights,” Linvill told The Daily Beast. “If you want to create a multipolar world, and your country is guilty of a long list of human rights violations, you might need to start your own foundation that explores human rights violations—but, you know, only the human rights violations that everybody else is committing.”

The FBR, for its part, doesn’t appear to post anything about human rights violations in Russia. It is, however, full of posts and articles on racism and police brutality in the United States, protests in European countries, and anti-NATO and Ukraine perspectives—including one recent piece that claims that western intelligence agencies are behind the largest terrorist attacks of this century.

It’s clear to experts like Linvill, however, that FBR is “just a front organization.”

“They put out a bunch of reports that not very many people ever talk about,” Linvill told The Daily Beast. “It’s just there to look good.”

The Daily Beast · May 12, 2024



6. THE MONTH IN GREAT POWER COMPETITION ECONOMICS EDITION – A Monthly Report on Great Power Activities and Strategic Intent


Graphics at the link: https://www.strategycentral.io/post/the-month-in-great-power-competition-economics-edition


THE MONTH IN GREAT POWER COMPETITION ECONOMICS EDITION

A Monthly Report on Great Power Activities and Strategic Intent

STRATEGY CENTRAL - APRIL & MAY 2024

https://www.strategycentral.io/post/the-month-in-great-power-competition-economics-edition

 



Navigating Complexity:

A Brief Analysis of Global Economic Trends in Q1 2024

Global economic growth is expected to increase slightly in advanced economies but slow down in emerging markets. This highlights the importance of strategic economic management and diversified investment approaches in the face of global uncertainties and structural challenges.

 

2024 Q1 ECONOMIC SUMMARY

 

The first quarter GDP data for 2024 was recently released, and it paints a complex picture of China's economic landscape and its substantial role in international trade. While China retains its status as the world's second-largest economy and the premier exporter of manufactured goods, it confronts internal challenges that temper its growth. The analysis notes persistent consumer demand and real estate sector weaknesses despite slight housing price and export recovery. Moreover, demographic shifts, particularly an aging population, pose long-term obstacles to sustained economic vitality. These internal dynamics, coupled with external pressures such as ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and the sensitive issue of Taiwan, where its stock market constitutes a large segment of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, create a nuanced environment for investors, emphasizing the need for diversified portfolios to navigate uncertainties.

 

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, economic performance is mixed in the United States. The real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, a slowdown from the 3.4% growth in the final quarter of 2023. This increase was driven by higher consumer spending, residential and nonresidential investments, and state and local government spending, which offset declines in private inventory investment. Notably, the deceleration in GDP growth reflected slower consumer spending and a decline in federal spending despite some increases in residential investment and imports.

 

Globally, economic growth is expected to rise marginally for advanced economies from 1.6% in 2023 to 1.7% in 2024 and further to 1.8% in 2025. However, this modest uptick contrasts with a slight deceleration in emerging markets and developing economies. While the global economic outlook has stabilized with lower inflation and resilient economic activity, challenges such as income disparities, fiscal consolidation needs, and the imperatives of geoeconomic cooperation remain pressing. These issues call for strategic policy adjustments to foster sustainable growth and manage global risks effectively.

Compared to the broader global economic context, the U.S. and China hold pivotal roles but face distinct challenges. The U.S. shows resilience with diversified economic drivers and robust institutional frameworks, whereas China grapples with structural slowdowns exacerbated by demographic trends and trade tensions. As central players in the global economy, these two countries economic policies and stability carry significant implications for global economic dynamics, underscoring the interconnected nature of modern economies and the importance of strategic economic management.


Links:

 


TWO VIEWS OF CHINA’S ECONOMY


Declining. Anne Stevenson-Yang's article in The New York Times (May 11, 2024) analyzes China's economic model and explains why it's no longer sustainable. China's past success was due to heavy government investment in industries and infrastructure under the strict control of the Communist Party.

 

China's strategy of fueling growth through large-scale investments has led to overcapacity in industries and inefficiencies, while loans to local government led to over-investment in real property, resulting in substantial downturns in the real estate sector. The Communist Party's excessive control over the economy has also stifled innovation and discouraged the growth of the private sector. China's economy heavily relies on exports, leading to trade tensions as other countries protect their markets from cheap imports. Financial mismanagement is also a concern, with local governments incurring massive debts through unchecked borrowing against state-owned land, leading to fiscal crises and cuts in public services.

 

China experiences high youth unemployment and public dissatisfaction. The previous methods of stimulating the economy are no longer viable. The article concludes that China needs significant reforms to reduce government control and encourage private sector growth to revive its previous economic momentum.

 

Ascending: The Foreign Affairs article "China Is Still Rising: Don’t Underestimate the World’s Second-Biggest Economy" by Nicholas R. Lardy (April 2, 2024) offers a robust defense of the continued potential for China's economic growth, countering the prevalent view that China’s economic expansion may have plateaued. Lardy argues that many critics have misinterpreted the slowdown in China’s economy, not recognizing the underlying resilience that promises sustained growth.

 

Lardy challenges and disproves a number of misconceptions that have caused some to anticipate a slowdown or regression in China's economic prospects. Firstly, he addresses the idea that China's GDP growth in comparison to the United States has halted. He explains that this view neglects to take into account lower inflation rates in China and the effects of currency fluctuations. However, when these factors are considered, the picture is more nuanced.

 

Additionally, Lardy dispels the fear of entrenched deflation leading to a recession in China, pointing out that core consumer prices are rising, and investment in various sectors continues to grow, indicating a healthy economic environment conducive to expansion rather than contraction. He also addresses concerns about the property market and private investment, suggesting that although real challenges exist, the situation is more nuanced and less dire than often portrayed.

 

China does face significant economic challenges, including demographic shifts and political pressures, but its fundamental economic structure and policy responses are robust enough to continue driving growth. Lardy's analysis implies that underestimating China's economic resilience could be a strategic misstep for global policymakers, particularly in the United States, as China is likely to remain a dominant economic force on the global stage.


Conclusion: China's economy is facing a period of deceleration, the strategic focus on innovation, technological advancement, and state-led investments in strategic sectors suggests a determination to ascend in the long term. The current economic situation can be seen as a phase of adjustment rather than a definitive decline, with the leadership's long-term strategies to overcome immediate challenges and secure a dominant position in the global economy.

 

2024 Q1 GDP: Friends and Rivals

  • Russia's> Q1 GDP 2024 increased at an annual rate of 5.4%, the Economic Development Ministry reported.
  • China's. Q1 GDP 2024 growth of 5.3% year over year is faster than expected despite protracted property sector weakness and mounting local government debt.
  • Iran's. Q1 GDP 2024 increased at an annual rate of 3.3%, according to the World Bank.
  • United States. Q1 GDP 2024 increased at an annual rate of 1.6%, well below the 2.4% estimate.
  • Japan’s. Q1 GDP 2024 increased at an annual rate of 1.5% after growth drivers slumped unexpectedly.
  • Germany’s. Q1 GDP 2024 increased at an annual rate of 0.2%, after avoiding a recession




ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

  • US to extend several Trump-era duties - set to target electric cars. After a multiyear review of Trump-era duties. reject across-the-board hikes

 

  • Germany is footing the bill for Ukraine to receive three HIMARS mobile rocket systems from US stocks.

 

  • The Chips and Science Act has received support in the form of over $100 billion in grants, loans, and guarantees to encourage semiconductor firms to establish their factories in America. The Semiconductor Industry Association reported that this initiative has resulted in an enormous influx of investment and is expected to reverse the declining domestic chip production trend.

 

  • The Biden administration has committed to providing hundreds of millions of dollars to revitalize the Lobito Corridor, a 1,200-mile railway intended to transport important minerals from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia to the Angolan coast. The DRC is home to the largest cobalt reserves in the world, while Zambia is rich in copper.

 

  • Global trade contracted by 3% in 2023, amounting to around $1 trillion, compared to the high of $32 trillion in 2022. However, the services sector showed resilience with an 8% increase from the previous year, while trade in goods experienced a 5% decline compared to 2022. International trade is expected to rebound in 2024.

 

 

  • TikTok has filed a lawsuit against the US government over a new law requiring its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to sell the app. If ByteDance fails to sell the app, it will face a ban in the US. The lawsuit has sparked a debate on the issues of national security and free speech. It is expected that the case will eventually reach the Supreme Court.

 

  • The current strong dollar is causing problems in financial markets and affecting the global trade recovery. Weaker domestic currencies in economies that are already worried about inflation have led to higher import costs. This is happening when global prices for crude oil, food, and logistics are already increasing. Even exporters, who would normally be happy about a strong dollar, feel more subdued.

 

 

  • France is taking a strong stance toward China. Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire stated that the "happy globalization" era is over and called on the EU to use more tools to rebalance trade with China.

 


     [1] https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/by-gdpGraphics at the link: https://www.strategycentral.io/post/the-month-in-great-power-competition-economics-edition



7. Henry Huiyao Wang: China Can Play a Greater role in Mediating Major International Conflicts


From a Chinese Think Tank that appears fairly liberal but is of course affiliated with the CCP.


Henry Huiyao Wang: China Can Play a Greater role in Mediating Major International Conflicts

Part of the "Global Solutions Journal: Issue 10" just head of the Global Solutions Summit on May 6-7, 2024 in Berlin.


THE EAST IS READ

MAY 01, 2024

eastisread.com · by The East is Read

The next Global Solutions Summit will be held on May 6-7, 2024, in Berlin. For an overview of speakers (including Olaf Scholz), click here. For a consolidated version of the agenda, click here.

The Center for China and Globalization (CCG) is a knowledge partner


Henry Huiyao Wang and Mabel Lu Miao, the two leaders of CCG will lead a delegation to attend the international conference aimed at addressing key policy challenges facing the G20 and G7 and other global governance fora.

The Global Solutions Journal: Issue 10 has already been published


Henry penned an opinion piece China Can Play a Greater role in Mediating Major International Conflicts


China Can Play a Greater role in Mediating Major International Conflicts

In the turbulent landscape of global affairs, conflicts such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis and the perennial strife between Israel and Palestine serve as stark reminders of the human cost and geopolitical repercussions of unresolved disputes. As the world reflects on the devastating toll of these conflicts, it is increasingly evident that concerted efforts toward peace and stability are imperative. In this context, as a major power, China has emerged as an advocate for peaceful resolutions to international conflicts, actively engaging in diplomatic efforts that promote global harmony.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is now entering its third year and has left a trail of devastation on both sides. Ukrainian President Zelensky's announcement that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed underscores the grim reality of the conflict's human toll.

According to the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, over 10,000 civilians, including hundreds of children, have perished, with thousands more suffering injuries. Similarly, significant casualties have been reported among Russian forces, with hundreds of thousands either killed or wounded.

Meanwhile, the ongoing strife between Israel and Palestine continues to exact a heavy toll on civilian lives, particularly in the besieged enclave of Gaza. With over 22,000 fatalities and tens of thousands injured, the conflict has inflicted immeasurable suffering on the population, representing a significant loss of life in proportion to Gaza's pre-war population.

In the midst of these crises, China has positioned itself as a proactive advocate for peace and stability on the international stage. Foreign Minister Wang Yi's address at the 60th Munich Security Conference underscored China's commitment to serve as a stabilizing force in global affairs. China's proactive engagement is evidenced by its multifaceted diplomatic initiatives, including its twelve-point peace proposal for the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its instrumental role in facilitating the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Moreover, China has consistently championed constructive and responsible actions by influential nations, particularly in safeguarding critical maritime routes such as Red Sea shipping lanes.

Despite these efforts, these and other conflicts continue to destabilize the international order. It is imperative that we consider truly actionable recommendations aimed at mitigating tensions and fostering peaceful resolutions. The following are immediate, practical actions that we believe would have a real impact on resolving existing conflicts and promoting peace:

The first of these is a Peace Conference for Ukraine. As the only third party not directly or indirectly involved in the Ukraine conflict, China has remained objective and impartial on the issue of Ukraine, advocating for peace and dialogue. President Xi Jinping has personally had in-depth conversations with leaders from multiple countries including Russia and Ukraine. China has proposed a twelve-point peace plan, emphasizing the importance of respecting national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and upholding the United Nations Charter. China has stated that a nuclear war cannot be waged in Ukraine and that nuclear facilities should not be bombed. All these efforts have been aimed at paving the way for a ceasefire and dialogue.

We believe that a comprehensive peace conference should be convened, inviting all relevant stakeholders, including Russia, and welcoming mediation efforts from countries such as Turkey and Switzerland. In previous meetings, Russia has not been invited to participate as Ukraine insists on the complete withdrawal of all Russian troops from its territory, the restoration of borders to their pre-1991 Soviet era configuration, and the establishment of mechanisms to hold Moscow accountable. However, genuine peace talks cannot occur without Russia's involvement.

The upcoming 10th China and Globalization Forum, organized by CCG and scheduled for May, offers a timely and flexible platform that would be conducive to analyzing the complexities surrounding the Ukraine issue. Its focus on fostering dialogue and exploring global issues gives policymakers, academics, and experts from around the world a unique opportunity to come together and engage in constructive discussions regarding the various aspects of the situation in Ukraine. The insightful analysis, exchange of perspectives, and exploration of potential solutions that come out of the discussions during the forum could ultimately pave the way for informed and collaborative efforts toward peace and stability in the region.

Second, a High-Level International Conference for Israel and Palestine should be convened. Currently, Israel has ignored warnings and condemnations from the international community, not only refusing to exchange hostages with Hamas but also reiterating its threats to attack the southern Gaza City of Rafah. Humanitarian supplies provided by the international community to the Gaza Strip need to enter through the Rafah crossing connected to Egypt. If the area falls victim to airstrikes and ground attacks or ultimately is controlled by the Israeli military, it will be extremely difficult for international humanitarian aid to reach the hands of civilians in Gaza. Even the United States has expressed opposition to the current situation with the US State Department announcing sanctions against three individuals and two entities in Israel. While these sanctions may seem mild, they represent the first public condemnation by the United States of Israel's violence towards Palestinians.

China hopes to find a comprehensive, equitable, and lasting solution to the Palestinian issue. More immediately, it hopes to facilitate an immediate ceasefire to prevent further escalation or loss of control. It opposes actions that harm civilians or violate international law and calls for the protection of civilians and humanitarian assistance to prevent an even more severe humanitarian disaster. China supports the prompt convening of a more authoritative, extensive, and effective international conference to promote the resumption of Israeli-Palestinian talks, including the development of a specific timetable and roadmap. China insists that the United Nations should take the lead in organizing high-level talks involving the permanent members of the Security Council, alongside Palestinian and Israeli representatives. China's proactive stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been exemplified by its presidency of the Security Council last November, which culminated in the passage of Resolution 2712 and underscores its potential to advance peace efforts in the region.

Third, China can serve as a guarantor of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. On June 17, 2023, during a meeting with a delegation from Africa in Saint Petersburg, Russian President Putin presented a draft of the Istanbul Agreement, which was outlined in March 2022 in Istanbul, aimed at resolving the Ukraine issue. The draft designated China, the United States, the United Kingdom, Turkey, France, and Belarus as "guarantor countries" of the agreement. Given its amicable relations and strategic partnerships with both Russia and Ukraine, China is well-positioned to serve as a guarantor of a ceasefire agreement, thereby facilitating diplomatic negotiations and peace-building efforts.

Fourth, UN Peacekeeping Forces should be rapidly deployed to Ukraine and Palestine, ensuring that peacekeeping operations adhere to international law and norms, having obtained proper authorization and clear mandates. The deployment and activities of peacekeeping forces must be decided by the United Nations Security Council or General Assembly and require the consent of relevant parties. A key benefit to this is that UN peacekeeping actions can only proceed after the consent of all parties involved in the conflict, to prevent UN peacekeeping forces from becoming a new party to the conflict. China's continued commitment to UN peacekeeping operations positions it as a valuable contributor to efforts aimed at maintaining peace and stability in conflict-affected regions.

Fifth, China can support reconstruction efforts in Ukraine and Gaza. Having endured the ravages of war and suffering immense destruction, Ukraine will be in urgent need of reconstruction. Leveraging its expertise as a major infrastructure builder, China can play a pivotal role in post-conflict reconstruction efforts, thereby fostering socio-economic development and stability in the conflict-affected areas. Ukraine could facilitate this by ending sanctions on the China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC), which was implemented because of the company’s cooperation with Russia. It should also retract its statements that it would "not use Chinese high-speed rail" technology post-war. It should instead welcome Chinese infrastructure companies to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine. In the Gaza Strip, China has provided emergency humanitarian aid such as food and medicine and announced it will provide hundreds of millions of dollars in aid to the Gaza Strip for the purpose of rebuilding infrastructure and providing relief. This funding will help restore the normal economic order of the Gaza Strip and improve the living conditions of its people.

Sixth is the implementation of a Two-State Solution for Israel-Palestine. Looking ahead, a two-state solution remains the most viable path forward for the region. The ongoing status quo and longstanding history of conflict in the region since 1947 means that the primary challenge lies in facilitating and implementing a feasible resolution. This should manifest itself in the creation of a Palestinian state that can foster harmonious coexistence between Israel and Arab nations. China, ranked as the third most favored mediator among Palestinians according to an Arab News YouGov poll, behind Russia and the EU, has the potential to play a core role in this process.

Seventh, the international community should support Ukraine's accession to the EU without NATO membership. If Ukraine successfully joins the European Union, it will benefit from the free movement of goods within the EU market, freedom of investment, and more convenient trade conditions. This would bring about more economic development opportunities for Ukraine and enhance the country's economic standing. However, joining NATO would provoke continued strong opposition from Russia, which sees NATO membership as a challenge to Russia's security interests and could lead to increased tension between the two countries.

Eighth, cooperation among major powers and middle powers should be enhanced. In the pursuit of global peace and stability, collaboration among major powers such as China, the United States, and Europe, alongside middle powers like Turkey, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and BRICS nations, is essential. By leveraging multilateral platforms such as the United Nations, these countries can collectively address major international conflicts through dialogue and diplomacy. China is in a unique position to engage extensively with all parties, promoting openness and inclusivity over isolation and exclusivity, as well as negotiation and cooperation over confrontation and antagonism. China could proactively lead a call for multilateralism and the exploration of win-win outcomes while working to prevent scenarios that result in losses for individual countries and the international community.

Last but not least, as frictions in commerce and technology mount between major powers, especially manifested in export control, sanctions, punitive tariffs, and investment restrictions, China, the U.S. and the EU have a growing interest in containing the situation from getting out of control. Further, spillovers from these challenges pose a growing threat to the supply chain and end users in global south as well. It would be feasible to put in a guardrail mechanism for telecom equipment vendors, social media giants, and AI companies in front a gathering of various authorities, to have sensitivities and controversies laid out and tackled.

In conclusion, in finding solutions to the daunting challenges posed by ongoing conflicts, we feel that China's proactive approach to peacemaking offers a beacon of hope for global peace and stability. By leveraging its diplomatic influence, fostering dialogue among conflicting parties, and advocating for constructive engagement, China can play a pivotal role in easing tensions and fostering lasting peace in regions marred by strife and suffering. As the world grapples with the consequences of conflict, concerted efforts toward peacemaking and mediation are imperative, and China stands ready to contribute to these noble endeavors.






CCG Update - Center for China and Globalization

Four recent German delegations to CCG

During the official visit of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to China from April 14 to April 16, and in the days preceding and following the visit, four German delegations visited the Center for China and Globalization (CCG). Below are the information regarding these four visits…

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24 days ago · 1 like · Yuxuan JIA

CCG Update - Center for China and Globalization

Henry Huiyao Wang's transcript on Semafor's 2024 World Economy Summit

On April 18, 2024, Henry Huiyao Wang, Founder & President of CCG, was invited to speak at a session at Semafor's 2024 World Economy Summit. The session, themed "Rising Global Middle Class: Is Rising Developing Nation Debt a Blessing or a Curse?", was moderated by Gina Chua, Executive Editor of Semafor. The complete video of the session is available on…

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12 days ago · 2 likes · 1 comment · Ziluan Zeng and Yuxuan JIA

CCG Update - Center for China and Globalization

Slovenian Deputy PM Fajon and China's Climate Special Envoy Liu at CCG Roundtable

On Saturday, April 20, 2024, the Center for China and Globalization (CCG) and the Bled Strategic Forum (BSF) co-hosted a roundtable on "Navigating the Future: Strategic Imperatives for Global Resilience." The event was honored to host Liu Zhenmin, Special Envoy for Climate Change, People's Republic of China; Former Under-Secretary-General for Economic a…

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16 days ago · Jiawen Zhang, Wendy WU, Haobo Deng, Ziluan Zeng, Haokai Li, Yuxuan JIA, and Zichen Wang

eastisread.com · by The East is Read




8. US General: 'Russia will not stop with Ukraine unless they're stopped in Ukraine'


US General: 'Russia will not stop with Ukraine unless they're stopped in Ukraine'

kyivindependent.com · by Olena Goncharova · May 12, 2024

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An autocratic regime like Russia can readily prioritize the expansion of its defense industries over economic well-being to sustain their military actions in Ukraine, along with help from Iran and North Korea, said Lt Gen. Steven L. Basham, U.S. Air Forces in Europe deputy commander.

Speaking at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies event "Transatlantic Security After 75 Years of NATO" on May 10, Basham noted that the West's defense industrial base is also accelerating: "Make no mistake. It's picking up speed. It will continue to accelerate past the capability of Russia. The time that is being spent by Russia inside Ukraine is also time that we have to get our industrial base to where it needs to be."

Lt. Basham said that Russia, once renowned for its defense exports, now appears to be increasingly reliant on importing both equipment and technology, notably from China. "The challenges that Russia faces in their own equipment, they're actually making up for by developing that relationship with China."


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War Notes

"The defense of our nation starts well outside the borders of the United States," he said. "All [that Ukraine is] asking for is our continued unwavering, consistent, continuous support. I think that's actually what they're getting right now. We've just got to stay that course. And I think we need to do a much better job of explaining [that to] the American people," he said, according to the U.S. Department of Defense report.

Basham also highlighted the importance of defending NATO, saying, "Make no mistake. No matter how this ends in Ukraine, Russia will not stop with Ukraine unless they're stopped in Ukraine."

Presence matters, he said, referring to U.S. troop deployments to Europe.

"You have to be with your allies to be able to integrate. You have to be with your allies to campaign, to exercise. And by the way, it can't be just episodic," he said, regarding U.S. commitment to NATO.

The road from death to life: Medics evacuate wounded Ukrainian soldiers amid intensified fighting (Photo)

Editor’s Note: Soldiers and military medics are introduced by first names and callsigns only due to security reasons. DONETSK OBLAST – A sunflowers-painted bus drives fast toward Dnipro, clearing the way with sirens. From the front line to the rear, from death to life, it carries wounded Ukrainian…

The Kyiv IndependentSerhii Korovayny


kyivindependent.com · by Olena Goncharova · May 12, 2024


9. Special Forces told about the operation on the left bank of the Kherson region



The operation took place in 2023.

11 May, 2024

The Ukrainian Special Forces' operators during the operation. Freeze frame from LB.ua video

Special Forces told about the operation on the left bank of the Kherson region

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/special-forces-told-about-the-operation-on-the-left-bank-of-the-kherson-region/?utm

Defence intelligence Kherson Region SOF Ukraine War with Russia

mil.in.ua

Special Forces told about the operation on the left bank of the Kherson region - Militarnyi

11 May, 2024 The Ukrainian Special Forces’ operators during the operation. Freeze frame from LB.ua video

In August 2023, the Defense Forces of Ukraine successfully conducted a highly complex landing operation in the lower reaches of the Dnipro, thanks to which a tactical bridgehead was created on the left bank of the Kherson region, near the settlements of Krynki and Kozachi Laheri.

The LB.ua publication tells about the progress of the operation.

Acquisition of experience in amphibious and raid operations

The commander of the special unit of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine with the call sign “Shaman” said that at first Ukrainian Special Forces had learned to curb the sea element.

“Before that, it was generally learning. We understood that we have some experience in naval operations, in particular, boat raids on the still filled Kakhovka reservoir on Energodar in the fall of 2022. And this, in truth, was quite complex, because in general, the sea, that is, the water route, was about 40 kilometers,” he said.

“Shaman” says that the process of preparing for the Energodar operation was the acquisition of experience. The Special Forces devoted a lot of time to training, the soldiers of his unit were several times on the left bank not only near Energodar, but also upstream of the Dnipro, near the village of Ivanivske, and below.

“The guys made landings, maneuvers, and operations. I have to mention another unit that was landed. These are divers from the Special Operations Center “Omega”. The most qualified, cool guys, the largest possible piece of experience we took in them. And 73rd Maritime Special Operations Center of the Special Operations Forces performed mine clearance tasks there, also successfully,” “Shaman” said.

Creation of a bridgehead on the left bank of the Kherson region in the summer of 2023

Operators wanted to carry out a really significant mission that would be important and would change the situation at the front. The chance to carry out the operation was given by the undermining of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, after which most of the mines were demolished or covered with sand. Some interaction was carried out on the spot with adjacent units, in particular the Odesa Territorial Defense unit.

“With a proposal to carry out the operation, the fighters turned to the then commander of the group of forces in the southern region of Kherson region,” said Brigadier General Mykhailo Drapaty, who now holds the post of Deputy Chief of the General Staff for training. Drapaty took the idea enthusiastically.

Ukrainian Special Forces’ operators during the operation. Freeze frame from LB.ua video

“We understood that in the summer of 2023 – in the conditions of conducting a counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia – we will not have to count on large forces. Therefore, some small groups decided to do what we can. They adequately assessed the forces, counted our means. There was quite a long period of preparation. Realistically, it took more than a month. But without luck, nowhere in our business,” continued “Shaman.”

During the preparation for the operation, it became clear that the enemy was planning a rotation.

They realized that the enemy had been planning a rotation: one main enemy landing brigade, which held the defense on the left bank of the Dnipro just above the Antonivka Road Bridge, went to the Zaporizhzhia direction. According to “Shaman,” they were also replaced by amphibious, but newly formed units from the occupied Crimea.

“When new enemy forces entered the positions, we noticed that they were not sufficiently aware of the situation. This was a joint operation of various components of the Defense Forces with the participation of a large number of special forces. And although she did not succeed the first time – I frankly say, in general, the operation was quite cool. We went into the territory of the enemy, into the inter-position space, and at once there were several quite intensive warheads with enemy observation posts. Some were almost in full force destroyed or captured. After that, they were divided into zones of influence,” says the Special Forces’ officer.

The Ukrainian Special Forces’ operators during the operation. Freeze frame from LB.ua video

“Shaman” mentioned the commander of a reconnaissance platoon of the 222nd Separate Battalion with the call sign “Vito,” KIA in the area of the operation.

“Pretty humid, good guy who also did the lion’s share of this operation with his reconnaissance platoon. At a high level, the guys worked. That is, we are already divided on the left bank of the Dnipro. Directly, my unit destroyed the enemy in one direction, the 8th Regiment of the SOF in the other, and the reconnaissance of the TDF under the command of “Vito” fell to mine directly the road, that is, the logistical route to the village of Kozachi Laheri. He really did a very good job with this,” says Shaman.

Then it turned out that the enemy was not aware of the situation. The head of the reconnaissance of the landing regiment came to the Russian paratroopers. Russian officers performing tasks in the area tried to find out the situation and made reconnaissance directly on the contact line. This allowed the Ukrainian Special Forces to take them prisoner.

“…all significant enemy officers were captured in that area. There was another platoon commander, a senior lieutenant, but he did not reveal what was happening at all. A certain number of sergeants also captivated. They took them directly when they didn’t understand anything.”

For example, after capturing one observer post, the Special Forces advanced along the shore and noticed that an enemy watch, numbering about six people, was coming towards. An ambush was immediately organized.

The Ukrainian Special Forces’ operators during the operation. Freeze frame from LB.ua video

“He led this group to replace the observation post, which had previously been destroyed,” the Russian sergeant. “He shouted a password ahead of himself. One of my group commanders came forward and spoke to him. He did not understand that these were Ukrainian Special Forces, a dialogue began, which made it possible to take them captive almost in full force”

“This was the first stage of the operation. He was not as complex as the following, because somewhere in a few days the enemy found out what was happening, but could not change the situation on the battlefield. The road was captured. They captured such, I would say, a bridgehead on the left bank – not the islands on the Dnipro, but the land on the left bank with places for landing,” says the commander of the DIU special force unit.

Call sign “Beaver,” commander of the composite tactical group of the 8th Regiment and 144th Special Forces Center

According to “Beaver,” on the first day of the operation, the enemy lost seventy-three troops.

At the junction of the positions of the Russian battalions, where the Ukrainian Special Forces began to work, the enemy was completely disoriented. Their observer posts on the shore did not play a role, because Russian servicemen were transported to the rotation exclusively at night. And those who took positions were not shown what should be done there.

The Russians discharged radio stations, the water ran out, they drew it from the Konki River. So when the fighting began, they could not understand where our troops were coming from.

The Ukrainian Special Forces’ operators during the operation. Freeze frame from LB.ua video

“We went through the boat station on the left, and the guys from the DIU moved along the shore to the road, which went on the route to the village of Kozachi Laheri. And on the first day, our special forces in positions in the trench near the road between Kozachi Laheri and Oleshky captured the enemy intelligence chief and his deputy. And two of their special forces groups that came for reinforcements, we laid mortars for the most part and a little while shooting,” says “Beaver.”

The general picture was such that the Russian servicemen who entered there in the early days were generally disoriented. Most of them were destroyed. Russians could not find an answer as to why this was happening.

On the third day, when Russians drove two APCs and a car, they were also knocked out. The enemy could not send any reinforcements, because he did not know where to send him.

The enemy advantage was only in a significant amount of artillery, but the wooded area leveled this advantage. There were five to seven Orlan UAVs above the site of the operation, which did not actually land. On the fourth day of the operation, after the soldiers of the SOF and the DIU got out, the soldiers from the TDF came in, gained a foothold in the directions and began to increase their presence and control the situation.

The Ukrainian Special Forces’ operators during the operation. Freeze frame from LB.ua video

“Our losses were that we did not know that the enemy could remotely mine, which is how he mined the Konki River. The Dnipro itself is useless to mine, because there the stream blows away. But in Konki there was actually no stream. And, unfortunately, a large number of our explosions on boats were on these mines,” says the Special Forces’ officer of the SOF.

Call sign “Shaman,” Special Forces commander of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine

“Shaman” said that after that there had been a number of such tense events. The fighters began to stumble upon mining in the water by boats. Then the Shaman first saw how bottom, anti-landing or anchor mines worked.

“It’s a pretty scary thing and that element needs to be considered. But credit should go to my guys. Realizing that not all routes are safe, realizing that the enemy directly during our operations, at night launched mines along the current or, it is possible, mined by copters from the air, that is, understanding the complexity of water routes, no one stopped performing the operation even after the losses. Yes, unfortunately, we then suffered heavy losses. Every soldier’s life is really quite a painful loss. I am talking not only about the Special Forces, but in general about all the servicemen of the Defense Forces of Ukraine. But then the guys died for a pretty correct idea, performing a strategically important mission,” he says.

According to the commander of the DIU special forces, no one expected that it would be possible to create such a zone on the left bank. There was such a period – two or three days when the enemy was embarrassed, the line of his defense on the front edge was broken. And with appropriate weapons, the Ukrainian Forces could develop that success much further and better.

“I understood that the counteroffensive that is taking place in Zaporizhzhia does not leave us an alternative option, but we had such a chance. It’s going to be harder for us now, I understand that too. Well, it turned out as it happened, we will not do anything about it,” continued “Shaman.”

The subsequent result was quite natural – they began to expand the bridgehead on the left bank of the Kherson region.


mil.in.ua


10. Israel–Hamas War (Iran) Update, May 11, 2024


https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-11-2024


Key Takeaways:

  • Northern Gaza Strip: The IDF issued evacuation orders for civilians around Jabalia, northern Gaza Strip, due to Hamas reconstituting militarily there.
  • Southern Gaza Strip: The IDF issued expanded its evacuation orders for civilians around Rafah, extending the evacuation zone to two refugee camps and nearby neighborhoods.
  • West Bank: CTP-ISW did not record any engagements between Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters.
  • Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted six attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
  • Iraq: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed one attack targeting Israel.

IRAN UPDATE, MAY 11, 2024

May 11, 2024 - ISW Press


Download the PDF

 

 

 

 

Iran Update, May 11, 2024

Ashka Jhaveri, Johanna Moore, Alexandra Braverman, and Nicholas Carl

Information Cutoff: 2:00 pm ET

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates regularly based on regional events. Click here to see CTP and ISW’s interactive map of Israeli ground operations. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Click here to subscribe to the Iran Update.

CTP-ISW defines the “Axis of Resistance” as the unconventional alliance that Iran has cultivated in the Middle East since the Islamic Republic came to power in 1979. This transnational coalition is comprised of state, semi-state, and non-state actors that cooperate to secure their collective interests. Tehran considers itself to be both part of the alliance and its leader. Iran furnishes these groups with varying levels of financial, military, and political support in exchange for some degree of influence or control over their actions. Some are traditional proxies that are highly responsive to Iranian direction, while others are partners over which Iran exerts more limited influence. Members of the Axis of Resistance are united by their grand strategic objectives, which include eroding and eventually expelling American influence from the Middle East, destroying the Israeli state, or both. Pursuing these objectives and supporting the Axis of Resistance to those ends have become cornerstones of Iranian regional strategy.

We do not report in detail on war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We utterly condemn violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

CTP-ISW will publish abbreviated updates on May 11 and 12, 2024. Detailed coverage will resume on Monday, May 13, 2024.

Key Takeaways:

  • Northern Gaza Strip: The IDF issued evacuation orders for civilians around Jabalia, northern Gaza Strip, due to Hamas reconstituting militarily there.
  • Southern Gaza Strip: The IDF issued expanded its evacuation orders for civilians around Rafah, extending the evacuation zone to two refugee camps and nearby neighborhoods.
  • West Bank: CTP-ISW did not record any engagements between Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters.
  • Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights: Lebanese Hezbollah conducted six attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel.
  • Iraq: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed one attack targeting Israel.


Gaza Strip

Axis of Resistance objectives:

  • Erode the will of the Israeli political establishment and public to sustain clearing operations in the Gaza Strip
  • Reestablish Hamas as the governing authority in the Gaza Strip

Palestinian militias defended against Israeli clearing operations in Zaytoun, southern Gaza City, on May 11. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a re-clearing operation into the Zaytoun neighborhood on May 8, marking the third time that the IDF has conducted a clearing operation there.[1] Palestinian fighters attacked Israeli forces with small arms, improvised explosive devices, and mortar fire in Zaytoun.[2] The IDF Nahal Brigade located a large quantity of weapons, including some in a clinic, and killed a Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) fighter, who had participated in Hamas’ attack into Israel on October 7, 2023.[3]

The IDF issued evacuation orders for civilians around Jabalia, northern Gaza Strip, on May 11.[4]The IDF disseminated the orders with leaflets, text messages, phone calls, and via Arabic-language media broadcasts. Around 100,000-150,000 people live in the designated evacuation area.[5] The IDF said that it would operate in the evacuation area due to Hamas’ efforts to “rebuild its capabilities” there.[6] The IDF Air Force conducted airstrikes in Jabalia to shape the terrain for follow-on ground operations.[7] Israeli forces first advanced to the Jabalia refugee camp area in December 2023 and withdrew later that month.[8] CTP-ISW previously observed that Hamas cells have probably established a rear area in Jabalia and/or northern Shujaiaya, from which they can mount attacks on IDF units along the Israel-Gaza Strip border.[9]

Hamas remains determined to reassert its governing authority and reconstitute itself militarily in the Gaza Strip. Hamas has the space and personnel to do so in the northern Gaza Strip since Israeli forces withdrew and in the absence of a local alternative to Hamas rule. An Israeli military correspondent cited the IDF saying that the IDF will need to continually return to areas that it has previously cleared because Hamas military infrastructure remains there.[10] The resilience of Hamas and other Palestinian militias across the Gaza Strip supports CTP-ISW's assessment that Hamas will likely survive an IDF clearing operation into Rafah.

The IDF continued its limited operation into eastern Rafah on May 11. The IDF 401st Brigade, which seized the Rafah border crossing with Egypt on May 7, destroyed a Hamas rocket launch site on May 10.[11] Israeli ground and air elements destroyed Hamas tunnel shafts.[12] The IDF Givati Brigade also continued operations in eastern Rafah.[13] Hamas fighters fired an anti-tank rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) at an Israeli armored personnel carrier near the Rafah crossing.[14]

The IDF issued expanded its evacuation orders for civilians around Rafah on May 11, extending the evacuation zone to two refugee camps and nearby neighborhoods.[15] The IDF said that Hamas is active in the evacuation areas and told civilians to immediately go to the IDF-designated humanitarian zone north of Rafah. The IDF frequently issues evacuation orders ahead of expanding military operations.[16] The IDF reported that an estimated 300,000 Gazans have already moved to the humanitarian zone north of Rafah since the beginning of evacuations from eastern Rafah began on May 6.[17] Local Palestinians told the Wall Street Journal that space in the humanitarian zone north of Rafah has “filled up” amid rising prices of tents, gasoline, and rides to leave eastern Rafah.[18]



The World Food Programme (WFP) reported on May 10 that humanitarian aid has not entered the Gaza Strip from the southern border crossings in three days.[19] The WFP report follows a UN official stating on May 10 that no fuel and “virtually no” humanitarian aid has entered the Gaza Strip for five days.[20] UN officials reported that aid is not entering through the Kerem Shalom crossing due to heavy fighting in the area.[21] An unspecified senior official told Egyptian state news on May 11 that Egypt refuses to coordinate with Israel on the entry of aid into the Gaza Strip via the now Israeli-controlled Rafah crossing due to Israel’s “unacceptable escalation.”[22]

Egyptian sources said that unspecified negotiators will reconvene in Cairo or Doha early next week for ceasefire talks.[23] The latest round of talks concluded in Cairo on May 8 with both Israel and Hamas messaging that negotiations had stalled.[24]

Hamas claimed that a British-Israeli hostage died of wounds he sustained from an Israeli airstrike last month in the Gaza Strip.[25] Hamas took Nadav Popplewell hostage on October 7 from Nirim in southern Israel. The Office of the Israeli Prime Minister told CNN that it did not know whether Popplewell was alive or dead.[26]

Palestinian fighters conducted at least two indirect fire attacks from the Gaza Strip into southern Israel on May 11. The IDF reported that it intercepted one projectile and that three others fell in open areas near Kerem Shalom.[27] The Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP) claimed responsibility for two indirect fire attacks targeting Kerem Shalom.[28] Palestinian militias have conducted near daily indirect fire attacks targeting the Kerem Shalom area since May 5.[29] Israeli armored vehicles have gathered near Kerem Shalom, according to satellite imagery obtained by the Wall Street Journal.[30] The IDF has said that Palestinian fighters are attempting to harm Israeli forces and the functioning of the Kerem Shalom crossing, which is the main entry point for humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip.[31]


Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

West Bank

Axis of Resistance objectives:

  • Establish the West Bank as a viable front against Israel

CTP-ISW did not record any engagements between Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters since CTP-ISW's last data cut off on May 10.

Southern Lebanon and Golan Heights

Axis of Resistance objectives:

  • Deter Israel from conducting a ground operation into Lebanon
  • Prepare for an expanded and protracted conflict with Israel in the near term
  • Expel the United States from Syria

Lebanese Hezbollah has conducted at least six attacks from southern Lebanon into northern Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on May 10.[32]


Recorded reports of attacks; CTP-ISW cannot independently verify impact.

Iran and Axis of Resistance

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—has claimed one attack targeting Israel since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on May 10.[33] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed to target the IDF Ramon airbase in the Negev desert using cruise missiles. CTP-ISW cannot verify that any claimed attacks occurred.



11. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 11, 2024


https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-11-2024


Key Takeaways:

  • Russian forces are conducting relatively limited offensive operations along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast and continued to make tactically significant gains in likely less defended areas. The reported sizes of the Russian elements committed to these limited operations and of the Russian force grouping deployed along the border in northeastern Ukraine indicate that Russian forces are not pursuing a large-scale operation to envelop, encircle, or seize Kharkiv City at this time.
  • Russian forces reportedly launched offensive operations along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast before they had completed bringing the Northern Grouping of Forces up to its reported planned end strength and have so far only committed a limited amount of combat power to offensive operations in the area.
  • ISW continues to assess that the Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast likely aim to draw Ukrainian forces from other sectors of the front while allowing Russian forces to advance to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian military command may be evaluating the risks, prospects, and timeline of offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast based on the assumption that Ukraine cannot and will not be able to liberate territory seized by Russian forces. Putin's and the Russian military command's calculus about the threat of Ukrainian territorial gains is likely shaping Russia's overall operational approach to seizing territory in Ukraine.
  • The limited Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast suggest that the resumption of US security assistance has not changed Putin's calculus or that he launched the Kharkiv effort without reassessing the operation's fundamental assumptions about Ukrainian capabilities in light of the resumption of aid.
  • The directions of Russian offensive operations in the international border area suggest that Russia may be attempting to create a "buffer zone" to protect Belgorod City, as Russian and Ukrainian officials have recently stated.
  • Russian forces appear to be attempting to quickly isolate the battlespace east of the Siverskyi Donets River and seize Vovchansk, a direction of advance that Russian forces may believe could threaten the Ukrainian grouping defending in the Kupyansk direction.
  • Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin reiterated a series of Kremlin narratives intended to justify Russia's invasion of Ukraine and attempted to flatter Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian military during an interview in honor of the 10th anniversary of the DNR's founding, likely in an attempt to curry favor in the Kremlin.
  • Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against a Russian oil refinery in Volgograd Oblast on the night of May 10 to 11.
  • Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin submitted proposals on the composition of the new Russian government to the State Duma on May 11.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast; near Svatove, Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City; in western Zaporizhia Oblast; and in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to highlight frontline Russian units fighting in Ukraine.



RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MAY 11, 2024

May 11, 2024 - ISW Press


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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 11, 2024

Riley Bailey, Angelica Evans, Nicole Wolkov, Christina Harward, and Frederick W. Kagan

May 11, 2024, 8:20pm ET 

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 1:15pm ET on May 11 (excluding certain evidence of Russian gains in northern Kharkiv Oblast). ISW will cover subsequent reports in the May 12 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Russian forces are conducting relatively limited offensive operations along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast and continued to make tactically significant gains in likely less defended areas. The reported sizes of the Russian elements committed to these limited operations and of the Russian force grouping deployed along the border in northeastern Ukraine indicate that Russian forces are not pursuing a large-scale operation to envelop, encircle, or seize Kharkiv City at this time. Ukrainska Pravda reported that Russian forces resumed offensive operations north of Lyptsi (north of Kharkiv City) on the morning of May 11 and focused on Hlyboke (immediately north of Lyptsi), where Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced to the outskirts of the settlement and later seized and cleared the settlement.[1] NASA Fire Information for Resource Management (FIRMS) data captured on May 10 indicates that there has likely been heavy fighting near Hlyboke, and ISW assesses that Russian forces have advanced up to the outskirts of the settlement.[2] Geolocated footage published on May 11 indicates that Russian forces have seized Morokhovets and Oliinykove (both northeast of Lypsti), and Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized these settlements.[3] Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults west of Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City) near Ohirtseve and Hatyshche, two settlements that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Russian sources claimed that Russian forces seized as of May 11.[4] ISW assesses that Russian forces have advanced at least to the outskirts of Ohirtseve and Hatyshche. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces also seized Strilecha, Pylna, and Borsivika (north to northwest of Lypsti), claims that ISW assesses to be accurate, as well as Pletenivka (north of Vovchansk).[5] Russian sources also claimed that Russian forces seized Hoptivka and Kudiivka (both northwest of Lyptsi and southeast of Kozacha Lopan).[6] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced further towards Lukyantsi (northeast of Lyptsi), to the northern outskirts of Neskuchne (northeast of Lyptsi), and to the western outskirts of Staritsa and Izbytske (west of Vovchansk and east of Lyptsi).[7] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced from Hatyshche to the northwestern outskirts of Vovchansk, south from Pletenivka, and towards Tykhe (on Vovchansk's northeastern outskirts).[8] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized Tykhe and are currently trying to advance east of the settlement into Vovchansk.[9] ISW has not observed evidence that would support an assessment that these Russian claims correspond with Russian advances at this time.

Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn stated that Russian forces are trying to advance in areas that were already contested "grey zones," suggesting that Ukrainian forces did not maintain enduring positions in many of the small border settlements that Russian forces have seized or have reportedly seized.[10] It is unlikely that Ukrainian forces would have established serious strongholds and fortifications along a contested grey zone or enduring positions in small border settlements that Russian forces have long subjected to routine indirect fire. Russian forces will likely face more intense resistance when trying to advance near settlements further south of the border and into larger border settlements like Lyptsi and Vovchansk. The proximity of Kharkiv City to the border magnifies the significance of limited Russian tactical gains, however, as Russian forces do not have to advance much further to begin threatening Kharkiv City with routine shelling.[11]


Russian forces reportedly launched offensive operations along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast before they had completed bringing the Northern Grouping of Forces up to its reported planned end strength and have so far only committed a limited amount of combat power to offensive operations in the area. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on May 11 that Russian forces have committed up to two companies of the 7th Motorized Rifle Regiment (11th Army Corps [AC], Leningrad Military District [LMD]) and up to two battalions of the 18th Motorized Rifle Brigade (11th AC, LMD) to the ongoing operations in the Lyptsi and Vovchansk directions.[12] Ukrainian military observer Alexander Kovalenko stated on May 11 that elements of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th AC, LMD) and the 128th Motorized Rifle Brigade (44th AC, LMD) are also operating in the area.[13] Kovalenko stated that Russian forces have committed 2,000 personnel to the frontline along the border and have 1,500 to 2,000 personnel in immediate reserve.[14] Kovalenko stated that elements of the 44th AC are currently redeploying to Belgorod Oblast and that 3,750 additional Russian personnel from the 44th AC may arrive in the area within the next week.[15] Kovalenko stated that the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces has 30,000 to 35,000 personnel deployed along the entire border with Ukraine in Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod oblasts, a figure consistent with Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi's May 2 report that Russian forces had roughly 35,000 personnel deployed to the international border area.[16] Skibitskyi stated that Russian forces intend to establish a grouping in the area that is between 50,000 and 75,000 personnel in size.[17] Ukrainian sources stated that Ukrainian forces have destroyed at least 20 Russian armored vehicles since Russian forces began offensive operations in the area on the morning of May 10, but Russian and Ukrainian sources continue to characterize Russian offensive operations along the border as consisting primarily of heavy infantry assaults.[18] Russian forces will likely introduce reserves to intensify ongoing offensive operations in the area in the coming days, however, the Russian forces lack the necessary manpower required to attempt a large-scale offensive operation to envelop, encircle, or seize Kharkiv City according to all available reports.

ISW continues to assess that the Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast likely aim to draw Ukrainian forces from other sectors of the front while allowing Russian forces to advance to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City.[19] Russian forces are maintaining the tempo of their offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Chasiv Yar, and west of Avdiivka, and the Russian military command likely hopes that operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast could cause the Ukrainian military command to dedicate manpower and materiel to the defense north of Kharkiv City that it could otherwise dedicate to defending in these other directions. A Russian advance towards Kharkiv City that would allow Russian forces to conduct effective and routine indirect fire would give Russian forces the capability to inflict significant damage to Kharkiv City in order to prompt mass migration from the city and set conditions for a larger offensive operation at a later date.[20] US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby stated on May 10 that Russian forces are preparing to use long-range fire capabilities within the radius of Kharkiv City and that this indicates that the Russian military is considering a larger offensive operation against Kharkiv City.[21] Russian long-range fire may similarly intend to set conditions for a subsequent offensive operation against Kharkiv City, and Kirby did not indicate that the White House believes that the Russian military is considering an immediate effort to seize Kharkiv City. The seizure of Kharkiv City most certainly is a desired operational objective for Russian forces, but not one that the Russian military appears to be pursuing in the near term.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian military command may be evaluating the risks, prospects, and timeline of offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast based on the assumption that Ukraine cannot and will not be able to liberate territory seized by Russian forces. Putin's and the Russian military command's calculus about the threat of Ukrainian territorial gains is likely shaping Russia's overall operational approach to seizing territory in Ukraine. The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence's (ODNI) 2024 Annual Threat Assessment reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin "probably believes" that Russian forces have blunted Ukrainian efforts to retake significant territory and that US and Western support for Ukraine is "finite."[22] Russia's intended timeline for its ongoing offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast remains unclear, but Russian forces may intend for their offensive operations in northern and northeastern Kharkiv Oblast to achieve their operational objectives long after summer 2024. The Russian military command may assume that Russian forces will be able to hold any limited gains they make in northern Kharkiv Oblast and other oblasts in perpetuity because they think that Ukrainian forces will be unable to launch successful counteroffensive efforts at any point in the future. Russian forces have made a series of tactically significant advances in Donetsk Oblast, particularly near Avdiivka, in recent months without Ukrainian counterattacks even momentarily pushing back Russian forces, and these recent unchallenged gains may be contributing to Putin's and the Russian military command's calculus.[23] Putin may believe that Russian forces can continue to make opportunistic and unchallenged advances throughout the frontline over the next months, or even years, and ultimately force Ukraine to submit to total Russian subjugation. Ukrainian materiel constraints due to delays in Western security assistance have prevented Ukrainian forces from launching significant counterattacks against Russian offensive operations, but the arrival of US security assistance to the front at scale will likely allow Ukrainian forces to resume counterattacks that threaten Russian forces' ability to hold tactical gains.[24]

The limited Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast suggest that the resumption of US security assistance has not changed Putin's calculus or that he launched the Kharkiv effort without reassessing the operation's fundamental assumptions about Ukrainian capabilities in light of the resumption of aid. Russian forces are currently attacking with a force grouping well below its reported intended end strength, a risky decision if Putin and the Russian military command believed that there was a threat for Ukrainian forces to roll back any tactical gains that this understrength force could make before Russian forces staffed it to end strength. Russian forces are currently advancing in several areas that do not provide immediate avenues of advance toward Kharkiv City or other immediate operationally significant objectives. Russian forces may be advancing in these areas because they believe that they can hold any seized ground indefinitely and use that ground to launch subsequent operations to more operationally significant goals. Russian forces may also believe that they can pursue gradual creeping advances across a wide swath of territory in northern and northeastern Kharkiv Oblast for an extended period of time without achieving relatively rapid operationally significant advances but in a way that would disadvantage any future Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in the area.

It is imperative for Ukrainian forces to disrupt any such Russian calculations as soon as possible through both limited and large-scale counteroffensive operations that liberate Russian-occupied territory as soon as conditions permit. ISW has routinely argued that Ukrainian forces should contest the theater-wide initiative as soon as possible because ceding the theater-wide initiative to Russia into 2025 affords Russian forces the ability to determine the timing, location, and intensity of Russian attacks and control the resources that Ukrainian forces expend during this protracted period.[25] Ukrainian forces will not have a chance to liberate territory if they remain on the defensive for the foreseeable future, and remaining entirely on the defensive will only encourage Putin to continue grinding offensive operations indefinitely seeking complete victory over time. ISW has repeatedly assessed that the consistent provision of key Western systems to Ukraine will play a critical role in Russia's prospects in 2024 and Ukraine's ability to conduct future counteroffensive operations and liberate Ukrainian territory from Russian occupation.[26] The West must proactively and preemptively provide Ukrainian forces with the necessary equipment and weapons for their future counteroffensive operations if Ukrainian forces are to liberate significant swaths of occupied Ukraine and challenge Putin's belief that Ukraine is and will remain unable to do so.

The directions of Russian offensive operations in the international border area suggest that Russia may be attempting to create a "buffer zone" to protect Belgorod City, as Russian and Ukrainian officials have recently stated. Russian officials, including Russian Vladimir Putin, have recently called for the creation of a "buffer zone" to protect Russia's claimed and actual territories from Ukrainian strikes.[27] Although this stated goal is actually unachievable as long as an independent Ukraine with any strike capabilities and will to fight remains, Kremlin officials have explicitly listed Kharkiv City as a part of a hypothesized limited demilitarized zone aimed at protecting Belgorod City.[28] Western and Ukrainian media reported on May 10 that Ukrainian military sources stated that Russian forces intend to establish a 10-kilometer deep buffer zone along the northern border in Kharkiv Oblast.[29] This objective likely is intended not only to push Ukrainian tube artillery out of range of Russian military logistics in Belgorod Oblast, but also to bring Russian tube artillery within striking distance of Kharkiv City. Russian forces are currently conducting offensive operations near Hoptivka (northwest of Lyptsi), and it is notable that Russian forces are also attempting to advance in areas that are separate from the area north of Lyptsi where Russian forces have already made tactically significant advances. Russian forces are also notably conducting offensive operations north and west of Vovchansk on both sides of the Siverskyi Donetsk River, which would pose a significant obstacle to Russian forces on the east side of the river should they attempt to advance southwestward to Kharkiv City. These various directions of Russian offensive operations further suggest that Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast are not aimed at an immediate large-scale offensive operation to envelop, encircle, or seize Kharkiv City. Russian forces may, however, be aiming to seize a wide swath of Ukrainian territory in the area immediately south of the border with Belgorod Oblast, likely including Vovchansk, to create a "buffer zone." Russian attempts to advance in an area that is relatively wide and not very deep along the border, especially in the area north of Hoptivka towards Kozacha Lopan, would further indicate that this is the Russian operational objective in the international border area.

Russian forces appear to be attempting to quickly isolate the battlespace east of the Siverskyi Donets River and seize Vovchansk, a direction of advance that Russian forces may believe could threaten the Ukrainian grouping defending in the Kupyansk direction. Geolocated footage published on May 11 shows a Russian strike destroying the Siverskyi Donets Dam bridge in Stary Saltiv (southwest of Vovchansk).[30] Footage published on May 11 purportedly shows Russian forces striking a bridge over the Vovcha River connecting Tykhe and Vovchanski Khutory (both west of Vovchansk).[31] Russian forces likely destroyed the bridges in an effort to isolate the Ukrainian forces operating on either side of the water features to prevent them from supporting Ukrainian forces defending against ongoing Russian attacks near Vovchansk. Russian attempts to destroy Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs) southwest and east of Vovchansk indicate that Russian forces will likely focus on seizing Vovchansk instead of attempting to bypass the settlement or expanding the front further east along the international border between Russia and Ukraine. Russian forces reportedly conducted at least 20 glide bomb strikes against Vovchansk on May 11 and are heavily focusing artillery, MLRS, and drone strikes on the settlement.[32] Russian forces may also intend to use offensive operations near Vovchansk to pressure the operational rear of Ukrainian forces defending against Russian attacks in the Kupyansk direction and draw away Ukrainian units defending in the Kupyansk area. A Russian foothold in Vovchansk does little to support a Russian effort to advance towards Kharkiv City, although Russian forces may imagine that a foothold in the settlement could allow Russian forces to launch offensive operations in the direction of Velykyi Burluk, a notable settlement in the rear of the Ukrainian grouping in the Kupyansk direction. Russian advances further south of Vovchansk would require long drives across open terrain, a capability that Russian forces have not shown in the past year and a half of fighting in Ukraine even during the period of most acute Ukrainian resource shortages.[33]

Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin reiterated a series of Kremlin narratives intended to justify Russia's invasion of Ukraine and attempted to flatter Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian military during an interview in honor of the 10th anniversary of the DNR's founding, likely in an attempt to curry favor in the Kremlin. Pushilin claimed during an interview with Kremlin newswire TASS on May 11 that Russia must seize Kharkiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Sumy, and a number of other unspecified cities during its invasion of Ukraine and "liberate" all of the "Russian people" who live in these supposedly "Russian" cities.[34] Pushilin strangely claimed that his list of cities encompasses more than "real historical Russian cities." Pushilin claimed that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian forces to not conduct strikes against Ukraine's energy grid this past winter due to Putin's great concern for Ukrainian civilians but also claimed that Russian forces should intensify their strikes against bridges and transportation hubs in Ukraine.[35] Pushilin claimed that Putin is the "main curator" of Donbas and Novorossiya and is "immersed" in the details of everything happening in occupied Ukraine and that the pace of Russian forces operation to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast is "adequate" and is not "too fast or too slow."[36]

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against a Russian oil refinery in Volgograd Oblast on the night of May 10 to 11. Sources in Ukrainian special services told Ukrainian outlet Suspilne that Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) conducted drone strikes against a Lukoil refinery in Volgograd Oblast and damaged the AVT-1 and AVT-6 oil processing facilities and control cables for the facility's air coolers.[37] Volgograd Oblast Governor Andrei Bocharov claimed on May 11 that Russian forces intercepted a drone over Volgograd Oblast and that it did not damage any infrastructure.[38] Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reportedly conducted a drone strike against the same oil refinery on February 3.[39]

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin submitted proposals on the composition of the new Russian government to the State Duma on May 11.[40] Mishustin proposed that current Minister of Agriculture Dmitry Patrushev become a Deputy Prime Minister and that current Kursk Oblast Governor Roman Starovoit become the Minister of Transport.[41] Mishustin also proposed that current Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov leave his position as Minister of Industry and Trade and become First Deputy Prime Minister. Mishustin nominated current Kaliningrad Oblast Governor Anton Alikhanov to replace Manturov as Minister of Industry and Trade. Dmitry Patrushev is notably the son of Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, and this is the second recent case of nominations to high ranking positions for children of people in Russian President Vladimir Putin's inner circle after Russian Federation Council Chairperson Valentina Matvienko nominated Boris Kovalchuk – the son of Putin's "personal banker" Yuri Kovalchuk – as a candidate for the head of the Federation Council Accounts Chamber on May 10.[42]

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian forces are conducting relatively limited offensive operations along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast and continued to make tactically significant gains in likely less defended areas. The reported sizes of the Russian elements committed to these limited operations and of the Russian force grouping deployed along the border in northeastern Ukraine indicate that Russian forces are not pursuing a large-scale operation to envelop, encircle, or seize Kharkiv City at this time.
  • Russian forces reportedly launched offensive operations along the Russian-Ukrainian border in northern Kharkiv Oblast before they had completed bringing the Northern Grouping of Forces up to its reported planned end strength and have so far only committed a limited amount of combat power to offensive operations in the area.
  • ISW continues to assess that the Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast likely aim to draw Ukrainian forces from other sectors of the front while allowing Russian forces to advance to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian military command may be evaluating the risks, prospects, and timeline of offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast based on the assumption that Ukraine cannot and will not be able to liberate territory seized by Russian forces. Putin's and the Russian military command's calculus about the threat of Ukrainian territorial gains is likely shaping Russia's overall operational approach to seizing territory in Ukraine.
  • The limited Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast suggest that the resumption of US security assistance has not changed Putin's calculus or that he launched the Kharkiv effort without reassessing the operation's fundamental assumptions about Ukrainian capabilities in light of the resumption of aid.
  • The directions of Russian offensive operations in the international border area suggest that Russia may be attempting to create a "buffer zone" to protect Belgorod City, as Russian and Ukrainian officials have recently stated.
  • Russian forces appear to be attempting to quickly isolate the battlespace east of the Siverskyi Donets River and seize Vovchansk, a direction of advance that Russian forces may believe could threaten the Ukrainian grouping defending in the Kupyansk direction.
  • Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin reiterated a series of Kremlin narratives intended to justify Russia's invasion of Ukraine and attempted to flatter Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian military during an interview in honor of the 10th anniversary of the DNR's founding, likely in an attempt to curry favor in the Kremlin.
  • Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against a Russian oil refinery in Volgograd Oblast on the night of May 10 to 11.
  • Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin submitted proposals on the composition of the new Russian government to the State Duma on May 11.
  • Russian forces recently made confirmed advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast; near Svatove, Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City; in western Zaporizhia Oblast; and in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to highlight frontline Russian units fighting in Ukraine.

 

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

  • Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
  • Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
  • Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
  • Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
  • Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
  • Russian Technological Adaptations
  • Activities in Russian-occupied areas
  • Ukrainian Defense Industrial Base Efforts
  • Russian Information Operations and Narratives
  • Significant Activity in Belarus

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast (Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City)

NOTE: ISW is adding a section to cover Russian offensive operations along the Belgorod-Kharkiv axis as these offensive operations comprise an operational effort separate from Russian offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. ISW may enlarge the scope of this section should Russian forces expand offensive operations along the Russian-Ukrainian international border in northeastern Ukraine.

See topline text.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces recently made a confirmed advance along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line amid continued Russian offensive operations in the area on May 11. Geolocated footage published on May 11 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced west of Kolomyichykha (west of Svatove).[43] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces also advanced one kilometer in depth towards Pishchane (southeast of Kupyansk), but ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim.[44] Fighting continued northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka and Vilshana; northwest of Svatove near Ivanivka, Stelmakhivka, and Berestove; southwest of Svatove near Novoyehorivka and Makiivka; northwest of Kreminna near Nevske; west of Kreminna near Terny and Torske; southwest of Kreminna near the Serebryanske forest area; and south of Kreminna near Bilohorivka.[45]

Ukrainian forces struck an oil depot in occupied Rovenky, Luhansk Oblast on May 10. Geolocated footage published on May 10 shows a strike against an oil depot in Rovenky.[46] Russian Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) Head Leonid Pasechnik and Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko stated that Ukrainian forces likely used an ATACMS missile in the strike.[47] Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Head Artem Lysohor stated that the Ukrainian strike caused "considerable" damage and that there are no fuel reserves left at the depot.[48]

 

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

The Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 11 that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults in the Siversk direction (northeast of Bakhmut) near Rozdolivka (south of Siversk), Verkhnokamyanske (southwest of Siversk), and near Spirne and Vyimka (southeast of Siversk).[49]

 

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Chasiv Yar amid continued Russian offensive operations in the area on May 11. Geolocated footage published on May 10 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced north of the Kanal Microraion (easternmost Chasiv Yar) and south of Chasiv Yar near the T0504 (Bakhmut-Kostyantynivka) highway.[50] Fighting continued northeast of Chasiv Yar near Hryhorivka and Bohdanivka, near the Novyi and Kanal microraions in eastern Chasiv Yar, east of Chasiv Yar near Ivanivske, and southeast of Chasiv Yar near Andriivka.[51] Elements of the Russian 58th Spetsnaz Battalion (1st Donetsk People's Republic [DNR] Army Corps [AC]), 17th Artillery Brigade (3rd Army Corps [AC]), and the “Sarmat” Battalion of the DNR's “Pyatnashka” International Volunteer Brigade are reportedly operating near Chasiv Yar.[52] Elements of Chechen “Shustry” Detachment of “Akhmat” Spetsnaz along with elements of the Russian 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd LNR AC) reportedly continue operating near Klishchiivka (southeast of Chasiv Yar), and elements of the 27th Artillery Regiment (6th Motorized Rifle Division, 3rd AC) are reportedly operating in the direction of Stupochky (south of Chasiv Yar).[53]

 

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances west of Avdiivka amid continued Russian offensive operations in the area on May 11. Geolocated footage published on May 10 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced within central Netaylove (southwest of Avdiivka) and south of the settlement.[54] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced west of Netaylove and south of Pervomaiske in an area up to 1.5 kilometers wide and 750 meters deep, although ISW has not observed visual evidence of these claims.[55] Fighting also continued northwest of Avdiivka near Kalynove, Novooleksandrivka, Yevhenivka, Novopokrovske, Ocheretyne, Semenivka, Novoselivka Persha, and Sokil; and west of Avdiivka near Umanske, and Netaylove.[56]

 

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances west of Donetsk City amid continued Russian offensive operations in the area on May 11. Geolocated footage published on May 10 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced in southern Krasnohorivka (west of Donetsk City).[57] Fighting also continued west of Donetsk City near Heorhiivka and south of Donetsk City near Pobieda, Kostyantynivka, Novomykhailivka, Paraskoviivka, Solodke, and Vodyane.[58] Elements of the Russian 1472nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (68th AC, Eastern Military District [EMD]) are reportedly operating near Vodyane; elements of the 5th and 110th motorized rifle brigades (1st DNR AC) are reportedly operating near Krasnohorivka; and elements of the 103rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th CAA, Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating in the direction of Kurakhove.[59]

 

The Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 11 that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area south of Velyka Novosilka near Staromayorske and Urozhaine.[60] Elements of the Russian 57th Motorized Rifle Brigade (5th CAA, EMD) reportedly continue operating near Vuhledar.[61]

 

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces recently marginally advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued fighting in the area on May 11. Geolocated footage published on May 11 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced southwest of Novopokrovka (northeast of Robotyne).[62] A Russian milblogger claimed that unspecified Russian airborne (VDV) forces also seized two unspecified positions northwest of Verbove (east of Robotyne).[63] Russian forces continued assaults near Robotyne.[64] Elements of the Russian 292nd Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment (19th Motorized Rifle Division, Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating in the Zaporizhia direction.[65]

 


Russian forces recently marginally advanced in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast amid continued fighting in the area on May 11. Geolocated footage published on May 9 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced within Krynky.[66] A Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the Russian 61st Naval Infantry Brigade (Leningrad Military District [LMD], formerly Northern Fleet) recaptured Nestryha Island (southwest of Kherson City), although ISW has not observed confirmation of this claim.[67] Ukrainian Southern Operational Command and Navy Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk reported on May 10 that Russian forces periodically attempt to land on Nestryha Island but that Ukrainian forces continue to repel Russian forces from the island.[68]

 

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign (Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)

Russian forces conducted individual missile strikes against targets in Ukraine on May 11. Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian air defense shot down a Russian Kh-59/69 cruise missile near Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and that Russian forces struck civilian infrastructure in Sumy City with an unspecified missile.[69] Russian sources amplified footage on May 11 purporting to show Russian forces striking a Ukrainian airfield near Manvelivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with an Iskander ballistic missile.[70]

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

The Russian MoD continues to highlight Russian units fighting in Ukraine. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu congratulated the 26th Tank Regiment (47th Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army [GTA], Moscow Military District [MMD]) for its role in the seizure of Kuzmenivka, Kyslivka and Krokhmalne in Kharkiv Oblast and the 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk People's Republic [DNR] Army Corps [AC]) for its role in the seizure of Novokalynove in Donetsk Oblast.[71]

The Russian MoD continues to delay issuing veteran certificates to former Wagner Group servicemen and convict recruits who have returned home after serving in Ukraine. Russian opposition outlet Astra amplified an appeal by several Wagner and Storm-Z convict recruits from Oryol Oblast to Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 11.[72] The men claimed that they have been waiting to receive their veteran certificates for over a year, but that Russian military registration and enlistment officials are unwilling to approve their applications because they do not have official military service documents from the Russian MoD. The men claimed that they know over 200 men who are not receiving the benefits that the Russian MoD promised them. Astra noted that the Russian government has so far failed to expunge the criminal records of many Storm-Z veterans.

Russian Technological Adaptations (Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine)

Nothing significant to report.

Ukrainian Defense Industrial Efforts (Ukrainian objective: Develop its defense industrial base to become more self-sufficient in cooperation with US, European, and international partners)

ISW is not publishing coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts today.

Activities in Russian-occupied areas (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

ISW is not publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas today.

Russian Information Operations and Narratives

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) is conducting a highly coordinated effort to promote information operations targeting the Baltic States that aim to justify future Russian aggression abroad. Director of the Russian MFA Second European Department Sergei Belyaev gave an interview with Kremlin newswire TASS published on May 11 in which he repeated Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova's May 5 statements about the Baltic states almost identically.[73] Belyaev and Zakharova both claimed that Russia must not forget its "compatriots" in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania who are allegedly facing persecution and are subject to police brutality, and that Russian diplomatic missions in the Baltic states are operating under "siege conditions."

Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)

Nothing significant to report.

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.


12.


Excerpts:

What is the lesson we should learn about foreign policy in general when it comes to the experiences we’ve had in Russia and China?
We should always try to talk both to leaders and to people, to the extent that we’re allowed. We should always offer an opportunity to work together in common interest.
But if the ideology is inherently expansionist, is inherently illiberal, is inherently trying to change the system that benefits us, we’ve got to build protections and resilience for ourselves, for our friends and allies, and particularly for those neighbors of those countries who are likely to be on the front line of that first push.
Where do you see the Israel-Hamas war heading?
Essentially, there are two paths on the table. There is continuing this war with all of the destruction and horror and lack of clarity about how you end Hamas’ reign of terror.
The other path is the route that the administration and allies and partners and a lot of countries in the Gulf are pushing, and a lot of Israelis want, which is: a hostage deal leads to a long-term cease-fire, leads to a better future for Palestinians both in the West Bank and in Gaza, leads to Saudi-Israel normalization and a path to two states, and a region where the ideology and the violence that Hamas is offering is beaten by more opening, more opportunity, more peace, more stability.
Are you saying that because you believe it or because it’s the Biden administration’s position?
I’m saying it because, anything other than that, this is going to happen again and again and again.
If you could go back in time on that one, what, if anything, should the U.S. have done differently?
Beginning with the Trump administration, everybody fell in love with regional normalization as the cure-all for the instability and grievances and insecurity in the Middle East. And that’s a part of it.
But if you leave out the Palestinian issue, then somebody’s going to seize it and run with it, and that’s what Hamas did. I also think that both we and the Israelis knew too little about the terror state that had been established in Gaza.



She Was at the Top of the State Department. Now She’s Ready to Talk.

Politico · by RYAN LIZZA and RACHAEL BADE


As Victoria Nuland steps down, she gets real about a world on fire.


Illustration by Bill Kuchman/POLITICO (source images via Getty Images, AP)

05/11/2024 07:00 AM EDT

Nahal Toosi is POLITICO’s senior foreign affairs correspondent. She has reported on war, genocide and political chaos in a career that has taken her around the world. Her reported column, Compass, delves into the decision-making of the global national security and foreign policy establishment — and the fallout that comes from it.

Victoria Nuland has long been known as a relentless, even pugnacious, U.S. diplomat, with a strong belief in American power. The approach sometimes got her in trouble, but it rarely held her back.

Nuland recently left the State Department after serving at its highest levels, first as the Biden administration’s undersecretary of State for political affairs, and, for several months, acting deputy secretary of State. She previously was a career diplomat who held an array of roles under presidents both Republican and Democratic; her first posting more than three decades ago was as a consular officer in China.


In an exit interview with POLITICO Magazine, Nuland discussed her time in public service — dismissing chatter that she was passed over for a promotion — as well as her views on where American foreign policy has gone wrong and right.


Notably, she said the United States was not quick enough to realize and prevent the expansionist ambitions of both Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.

A longtime champion of Ukraine and the effort to counter Russia, she also warned about the perils of Donald Trump blowing up NATO if he wins back the White House in November.

“Don’t throw it out,” she said of the trans-Atlantic alliance, “because you would never be able to re-create it again.”

The following has been edited for length and clarity:

How’s life on the outside?

Life is wonderful. I am doing a lot of projects that I had put off, seeing a lot of people that I love, and I’m staying involved in ways that are meaningful. I’m speaking on foreign policy issues I care about — whether it is Ukraine or ensuring that the United States leads strongly in the world. I’m getting a chance to prepare for my classes in the fall and work with the next generation of foreign policy leaders. I’ll be at Columbia’s School of International and Public Affairs.

Why leave the Biden administration, really? People said you felt passed over for the deputy secretary of State job. Is that true?

I actually didn’t compete for the deputy secretary of State job. I loved being undersecretary for political affairs. I love working with Secretary [Antony] Blinken. But as you know, I’ve done three years altogether and I’ve done eight months plus in both jobs, and so it was just the right time for me and my family to do something different.

Do you have any regrets from your time in the role?

I think whenever you finish a job like this, you wish you’d been able to do more on more issues. Travel more, touch more people, get more done faster, ensure the U.S. was leading strongly on as many continents as possible, mentor more of the next generation. And you’re always constrained by time, by resources, by the crises that overwhelm the inbox. So you always want to have done more.

Can Ukraine win this war against Russia? And how do you define winning?

Let’s start with the fact that Putin has already failed in his objective. He wanted to flatten Ukraine. He wanted to ensure that they had no sovereignty, independence, agency, no democratic future — because a democratic Ukraine, a European Ukraine, is a threat to his model for Russia, among other things, and because it’s the first building block for his larger territorial ambitions.

Can Ukraine succeed? Absolutely. Can Ukraine come out of this more sovereign, more economically independent, stronger, more European than it is now? Absolutely. And I think it will. But we’ve got to stay with it. We’ve got to make sure our allies stay with it.

And we have to accelerate a lot of the initiatives that were in the supplemental, like helping Ukraine build that highly deterrent military force of the future, like deploying these longer-range weapons to strategic effect, like ensuring that the critical infrastructure and the energy sector are protected, like building up our own defense industrial base and that of our allies and Ukraine’s again, so that we and Ukraine are building faster than Russia and China.

But can it get all its territory back, including Crimea?

It can definitely get to a place where it’s strong enough, I believe, and where Putin is stymied enough to go to the negotiating table from a position of strength. It’ll be up to the Ukrainian people what their territorial ambitions should be. But there are certain things that are existential.

Any deal that they cut in their interest and in the larger global interest has to be a deal that Putin is compelled to stick to. We can’t be doing this every six months, every three years. It has to actually lead to a deal that includes Russian withdrawal.

Putin is a master at what we call rope-a-dope negotiating, where he never actually cuts the deal. It has to be a deal that ensures that whatever is decided on Crimea, it can’t be remilitarized such that it’s a dagger at the heart of the center of Ukraine.

Was it a mistake not to push the Ukrainians harder to go for some sort of negotiated end to the war in 2022, especially the fall of 2022?

They were not in a strong enough position then. They’re not in a strong enough position now. The only deal Putin would have cut then, the only deal that he would cut today, at least before he sees what happens in our election, is a deal in which he says, “What’s mine is mine and what’s yours is negotiable.” And that’s not sustainable.

You’ve had a long career, especially when it comes to Europe. Where did the U.S. go wrong in its understanding of Russia?

With regard to both Russia and China, after the end of the Cold War, the prevailing wisdom among all of us — right, left and center — was that if you could knit Moscow and Beijing into the open and free global order that we had benefited from for so many years, that they would become prosperous, and they would become strong contributing members of that order. And that’s what we tried for a very long time.

That works if you have a leadership that is fundamentally accepting the current system. But once you have leaders who are telling their populations that this system keeps their country down, doesn’t allow it to have its rightful place, that has a territorial definition of greatness, that is bent on economic, political and or military coercion — that’s antithetical to this order, and then our policy has to change.

Did we realize fast enough Putin’s ambitions and Xi Jinping’s ambitions, and did we do enough to ensure that those ambitions stayed inside their own nations and didn’t spill out and coerce others? 20/20 hindsight? Probably not.

How much of it comes down to what particular guy is running the show? I sometimes wonder, could things be different if it wasn’t Putin in charge? If it wasn’t Xi? How much of it comes down to the dude at the top?

In highly centralized societies, which both China and Russia have historically been, without an electoral refresh of the kind that we all go through in the democratic world, it matters hugely, because it’s that human who’s defining what greatness means. It’s that human who’s deciding how to maintain order in that society. It’s that human — allowing them to speak, allowing a free press, allowing protests, allowing alternative political parties — who’s going to shape the options. And that constrains obviously the kind of relationship we can have.

What is the lesson we should learn about foreign policy in general when it comes to the experiences we’ve had in Russia and China?

We should always try to talk both to leaders and to people, to the extent that we’re allowed. We should always offer an opportunity to work together in common interest.

But if the ideology is inherently expansionist, is inherently illiberal, is inherently trying to change the system that benefits us, we’ve got to build protections and resilience for ourselves, for our friends and allies, and particularly for those neighbors of those countries who are likely to be on the front line of that first push.

Where do you see the Israel-Hamas war heading?

Essentially, there are two paths on the table. There is continuing this war with all of the destruction and horror and lack of clarity about how you end Hamas’ reign of terror.

The other path is the route that the administration and allies and partners and a lot of countries in the Gulf are pushing, and a lot of Israelis want, which is: a hostage deal leads to a long-term cease-fire, leads to a better future for Palestinians both in the West Bank and in Gaza, leads to Saudi-Israel normalization and a path to two states, and a region where the ideology and the violence that Hamas is offering is beaten by more opening, more opportunity, more peace, more stability.

Are you saying that because you believe it or because it’s the Biden administration’s position?

I’m saying it because, anything other than that, this is going to happen again and again and again.

If you could go back in time on that one, what, if anything, should the U.S. have done differently?

Beginning with the Trump administration, everybody fell in love with regional normalization as the cure-all for the instability and grievances and insecurity in the Middle East. And that’s a part of it.

But if you leave out the Palestinian issue, then somebody’s going to seize it and run with it, and that’s what Hamas did. I also think that both we and the Israelis knew too little about the terror state that had been established in Gaza.

You’re going to be teaching at Columbia, the epicenter of campus protests over this situation. If you could offer these protesters some advice as someone with significant policymaking experience, what would it be?

Peaceful protest is part of the fabric of who we are and the fact that we allow it, and the Chinese don’t and the Russians don’t, makes us Americans. But when that protest becomes violent, when it impinges on other people’s human rights or denigrates others, then you veer toward coercion.

So, express your views, ask for concrete paths forward. But stay away from violence, make sure that it’s actually indigenous to the campus, that you’re not becoming the tool of outside agitators. And be respectful of alternative views as you expect people to respect your views.

What if you are peaceful? And you say what you want and the people in charge just say, ‘Oh, that’s very nice, thank you,’ and then they ignore you and they keep doing what they’ve been doing for years. How do you do just keep pushing on that front? Do you join the government?

I would certainly say if you care enough to devote all day, every day to political change, come join the folks who are setting policy, commit your life to public service. I didn’t expect that that’s where my life would lead, but it’s been incredibly rewarding.

There are many, many ways to change policy, but being on the inside is not only extremely rewarding, but you can actually get stuff done.

If Trump wins, and leaves NATO or limits America’s role in NATO, does the alliance fall apart? What happens?

First and foremost, America suffers. Because if you look at every single one of the challenges we have globally, even as we make the security commitment to Europe, it is the European countries who have contributed more to Ukraine — on the security side, on the economic side, etc. It is the European countries who have to adapt their policies toward China if you want to have an impact on China’s eagerness to coerce others. It’s the European countries who we need to help fund the Haiti mission, to help defeat terrorism in Africa, and provide prosperity.

If we are not part of that family, on a daily basis, we are standing alone, our own influence in the world is greatly reduced, and we have no influence over how they choose to spend their energy and resources. And they’re less powerful in doing it without us.

What about this idea that look, we’re the U.S. at the end of the day. We’re the superpower. Whether we’re in NATO or not, people are going to come along with us. Isn’t there something to that argument?

I’ve worked for six presidents, Republicans and Democrats. I always believed that a new president with a fresh mandate from the American people should look at every global problem with fresh eyes, bring new solutions, and should have that opportunity, working with Congress, working with the American people, working with allies and partners.

That’s a different thing than turning your back on bedrock, bipartisan institutions and policies that have protected Americans and advanced our own prosperity and global influence for 70 years.

Why do you want to throw out what’s working and what benefits us for no other reason than you’ve had a fit of pique? Work within the institution to make it work better. Don’t throw it out, because you would never be able to re-create it again.

Does the rest of the world fear the United States?

Is fear what we want from the rest of the world?

Sometimes.

I think what we want from the rest of the world is they see us leading in a manner that advances their own security, advances their own prosperity, creates this community of nations that can handle global problems — whether they are terrorist problems, whether they are health problems, whether they’re environmental problems — and we do it in a primarily self-interested but unselfish way, and we’re creating that community.

They should only fear us if they’re opponents of a largely liberal democratic way of advancing human prosperity. And in that context, if they are viciously invading a neighbor, if they are coercing a little state because they can, then I hope they would fear our reaction and the reaction that we will build with other democracies who want to protect the system that favors freedom.

Do you ever plan to go back into government?

I love what I did for 35 years. I’ve always loved it. And I continue to love it. So in the right circumstances, of course.

By NAHAL TOOSI

05/11/2024 07:00 AM EDT





Nahal Toosi is POLITICO’s senior foreign affairs correspondent. She has reported on war, genocide and political chaos in a career that has taken her around the world. Her reported column, Compass, delves into the decision-making of the global national security and foreign policy establishment — and the fallout that comes from it.




POLITICO



Politico · by RYAN LIZZA and RACHAEL BADE



13. Biden 'is offering Israel top secret intelligence detailing exact locations of Hamas leaders and their hidden tunnels in bid to stave off full-scale invasion of Rafah'



Then why not provide precision guided munitions that can help prevent some civilian casualties?


Biden 'is offering Israel top secret intelligence detailing exact locations of Hamas leaders and their hidden tunnels in bid to stave off full-scale invasion of Rafah'

  • Biden is said to be working to prevent a full-scale Israeli invasion of Rafah
  • Top secret intelligence will help pinpoint the exact location location of Hamas 
  • Goal is to persuade Israel to conduct a more limited operation in Rafah 

By JAMES GORDON FOR DAILYMAIL.COM 

PUBLISHED: 19:00 EDT, 11 May 2024 | UPDATED: 08:45 EDT, 12 May 2024

Daily Mail · by James Gordon For Dailymail.com · May 12, 2024

Biden administration officials are said to be offering Israel exact locations of Hamas leaders in a bid to stop the IDF invading the Gazan city of Rafah.

The president has reportedly offered highly-classified information that also includes the locations of Hamas' secret tunnels to try and stave-off what he fears could be a humanitarian catastrophe.

The detailed and sensitive talks serve to illustrate the stakes facing Israel and the U.S. Rafah is the last city in Gaza that has not been bombed by Israel.

According to the Washington Post, the U.S. is also proposing to assist in the construction of thousands of shelters to create tent cities and help with the setting up of delivery systems for vital supplies like food, water, and medicine.


The Biden administration is said to be working furiously behind the scenes in an attempt to stave of a full scale Israeli incursion into the southern Gaza city of Rafah, pictured on Saturday


The Biden Administration is said to be offering Israel substantial support, including top secret intelligence information that would help Israeli forces pinpoint the exact location of Hamas leaders together with the terror group's hidden tunnels

This support will help ensure that 1.3 Palestinians that fled and were already evacuated from other parts of Gaza under Israeli orders and now sheltering in Rafah have access to livable conditions, rather than being exposed to further hardship.

Israel has promised an invasion using 'extreme force' - something the Biden administration is particularly concerned about, particularly given the already dire humanitarian situation in Gaza. The current goal is to essentially prevent unnecessary destruction and minimize harm to civilians.

Israeli says it must go into Rafah in order to complete the job of wiping out Hamas.

But the job is easier said than done as destroying city's extensive underground tunnel network where many Hamas fighters and leaders are based, would endanger the lives of tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians.

'We have serious concerns about how Israel has prosecuted this campaign, and that could all come to a head in Rafah,' a senior administration official said.

U.S. officials, including experts from agencies such as the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), have been involved in detailed discussions with Israeli counterparts on how to implement a humanitarian plan effectively.


Over the last seven weeks President Biden and his team have been making offers hoping to convince Israel 's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, pictured, and the Israeli military to pursue a more targeted and limited operation in the city


Smoke rises after an Israeli air strike near the separating wall between Egypt and Rafah


A street in Rafah is nearly deserted, as Israel's military expanded an evacuation order for eastern areas of the southern Gaza city

It includes considerations such as the number of shelters that would be needed and the amount of water required for specific areas with suggestions it would take several months to set up - although Israel disagrees with such calculations.

Biden aides are have imparted to their Israeli counterparts that Palestinians are unable to just be moved to barren or bombarded parts of Gaza and that Israel needs to provide basic infrastructure together with shelter, food, water, medicine and other necessities.

'The aid community generally is very skeptical there's any safe way to relocate people out of Rafah,' said Jeremy Konyndyk, president of Refugees International to The Post.

'I've been really concerned about the U.S. line on this — that the line has not been, 'End the war and don't go into Rafah.' The line has been to find a way to safely evacuate people, and that presumes that's a possible thing,' Konyndyk said.

The U.S. is also been working closely with Egypt to address the issue of tunnels that cross the Egypt-Gaza border, which Hamas has used in the past to transfer weapons across and to replenish its military supplies.

While Israel has already launched strikes on Rafah, it has not yet launched a full-scale ground invasion of Rafah, but the U.S. is said to have become concerned by recent actions including the seizing of a border crossing and the ordering of evacuations suggesting a ground offensive is not far off.


Internally displaced Palestinians arrive to Khan Younis after leaving Rafah following an evacuation order issued by the Israeli army


More than 34,900 Palestinians and over 1,455 Israelis have been killed, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry and the IDF, since Hamas militants launched their attack in October


An elderly woman and child wait with belongings before evacuating from Rafah, following an order from the Israeli military

Israel has given assurances that 800,000 Palestinians will be evacuated from the area before any incursion into Rafah begins.

Aid agencies say there is nowhere left for previously evacuated Gaza citizens to move to, given that Egypt refuses to open its borders.

Other parts of Gaza have been reduced to rubble with the collapse of infrastructure and hospitals no longer functioning.

The Biden administration had earlier signaled that further escalation, especially actions targeting densely populated areas, could lead to consequences, including the withholding certain weapons shipments if the country moves ahead with a Rafah invasion.

Biden has said Israel has not yet crossed his 'red line' as forces have not begun a ground invasion or bombing of Rafah.

The administration has also calculated that Hamas would welcome a major battle in Rafah, particularly one that inflicts maximum death and destruction in order to further isolate Israel.


Netanyahu has promised to enter Rafah with 'extreme force,' while Biden wants any operation to be targeted. Pictured, displaced Palestinians are seen arriving in Khan Younis


A makeshift tent camp in Rafah. The U.S. has promised to assist in erecting more


Displaced Palestinians arrive at a makeshift tent camp west of Rafah

It is still unclear whether Israel will listen to warnings offered by the U.S. not to launch a full-scale ground invasion as tension has been building between Biden and Netanyahu over the last week.

Days ago, the Biden administration paused the shipment of 2,000-pound bombs over fears they might be used in an operation in Rafah.

'Actually restricting more weapons deliveries is a step the Biden administration would probably prefer not to take. As a result of that, they're likely to keep the definition of the red line flexible, so they can decide based on the entirety of the circumstances whether Israel has crossed it or not,' said Frank Lowenstein, a former State Department official, to the Washington Post.

'It seems like the brightest part of that pink line would be mass casualty events for civilians in Rafah and large-scale armored incursions into the city.'

The situation remains fluid, with ongoing diplomatic efforts aimed at finding a peaceful resolution and avoiding further escalation of violence and humanitarian crises.

Daily Mail · by James Gordon For Dailymail.com · May 12, 2024



14. The Secret to Talking to an AI Chatbot


For those of us starting out using AI.


I use polite terms such as "please." My daughter teases me about that.


  1. TECHNOLOGY

  2. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

The Secret to Talking to an AI Chatbot


Research reveals how to phrase questions to get the best responses. But that can lead to some unusual requests.


https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/chat-gpt-tips-ai-responses-d48a8f6d?mod=hp_listc_pos1

By Bart Ziegler

May 12, 2024 10:00 am ET






Want to get the best answers out of an AI? It’s all in how you talk to it.

Tell it, for instance, to pretend it is Albert Einstein. Or that somebody’s life depends on the response. Or that it needs to stay focused on its goals.

Prodding an artificial-intelligence chatbot is nothing like doing a Google search. Instead, it is like having a conversation with a book-smart person who needs coaxing—sometimes very indirect or bizarre coaxing—to give the most creative and effective answers to questions.

The trouble is, nobody knows why AI responds to those strange prompts in the ways it does—not even the people who created large language models such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini and Microsoft’s Copilot. That has led to experiments and guesswork to find the approaches that work best. Some researchers even ask the chatbots themselves for tips on how to talk to them.

Below are some creative ways researchers have found to elicit better chatbot responses. These aren’t universal truths; not all of them work with all chatbots or with all types of questions. But they are good places to begin.

Tell the chatbot it is an expert

Asking a chatbot to act as an expert—even a long-dead one—can yield better results, or at least be more entertaining. If you’re seeking information about designing a midcentury modern house, tell it to “act as architect Frank Lloyd Wright.” Here’s how Gemini began its response, which listed five useful tips: “Alright, here’s Frank Lloyd Wright speaking to you about your future home…”

Similarly, if you’re trying to understand Einstein’s general theory of relativity, ask it to answer as Einstein would. ChatGPT’s response to that question: “Ah, mein freund, I shall endeavor to elucidate the wondrous fabric of space-time as perceived through the lens of my general theory of relativity…” It then explained the theory in fairly easy-to-understand terms.

Why does this technique work? “If you ask the AI to ‘imagine you’re a world-renowned chef,’ you’re signaling that you want a response that reflects culinary expertise,” Copilot responded when I asked it the question. “The AI will then generate a response that aligns with what it has learned about how chefs talk and the kind of information they might provide.”

At the other end of the scale, telling a chatbot to act like a middle-school teacher should produce simple explanations for hard-to-understand concepts, such as how nuclear power is created or the techniques used in gene editing.

Encourage the chatbot to do better

Telling a chatbot that its response is important to your job, or to take pride in its work, can improve its performance, a group of researchers found.

The researchers, from Microsoft and several universities, created 11 motivating phrases derived from human psychology, including, “Stay focused and dedicated to your goals” and “Are you sure this is your final answer?” They inserted these phrases into questions or tasks they gave to six chatbots.

The outcome: The method, which the group dubbed “EmotionPrompt,” boosted the accuracy and usefulness of the responses. The chatbots showed a 115% improvement on an artificial-intelligence test called BIG-Bench—a compendium of over 200 extremely difficult language-based tasks—over straightforward prompts.

Chatbots “possess emotional intelligence and can be enhanced by emotional stimuli,” the group said.

Ask the AI to suggest prompts

Using specialized software called an automatic prompt optimizer, researchers at the tech company Broadcom asked a chatbot for phrases that would boost the accuracy of the answers it gives on a math test.

Among other things, the chatbot suggested that researchers use “Star Trek” language in their questions: “Command, we need you to plot a course through this turbulence and locate the source of the anomaly. Use all available data and your expertise to guide us through this challenging situation.”

And the chatbot said it would answer in this format: “Captain’s Log, Stardate [insert date here]: We have successfully plotted a course through the turbulence and are now approaching the source of the anomaly.”

When the researchers used this verbiage to run the test, the chatbot followed it with its numerical answer to the question. This oddball role-playing improved the score to 59% correct answers, from 56% correct answers when researchers didn’t use prompts the AI helped create.

“Surprisingly, it appears that the [AI] model’s proficiency in mathematical reasoning can be enhanced by the expression of an affinity for ‘Star Trek,’ ” the researchers wrote. They called the chatbot’s suggested prompt language “remarkably different from anything a human practitioner would be likely to generate.”

“The takeaway here is not to try ‘Star Trek’-style prompting for other problems,” says one of the researchers, Rick Battle, because the chatbot suggested that wording specifically for this test. “The takeaway is that no human-written prompts will outperform an automatic prompt optimizer.”

Battle couldn’t explain why the “Star Trek” role-playing would make the chatbot more accurate. “This is just another example of LLMs being a black box,” he says.

Play a role yourself

Instead of asking the chatbot to play a role, try playing one yourself. If you’re asking a medical question, “you could role-play as a concerned parent, a skeptical patient, or even a curious alien studying human biology,” ChatGPT told me when I asked it how to obtain better responses. “This approach can sometimes elicit more detailed and empathetic responses,” it said.

Be genial, and don’t get mad

Chatbots seem to work better if you ask them things in a colloquial and friendly manner, but don’t go overboard. “Excessive flattery is not necessarily welcome,” according to researchers at Waseda University in Tokyo, who tested the impact of politeness levels in prompts. They found chatbot performance is “strongly related to human behavior” and that they “are sensitive and vulnerable to prompts.”

The researchers devised questions that used varying degrees of politeness and respect, from the lowest, level 1, to the highest, level 8. They used these questions to prompt answers from various chatbots.

With ChatGPT version 3.5, the researchers found that when using level 8 of polite language, the chatbot scored 60.02 on a language-understanding test, compared with the score of 51.93 for questions using level 1 of politeness.

“However, highly respectful prompts do not always lead to better results. In most conditions, moderate politeness is better,” the researchers wrote.

The same study found that becoming angry with a chatbot that isn’t responding as you would like can make things worse. “Using impolite prompts can result in the low performance of LLMs, which may lead to increased bias, incorrect answers or refusal of answers,” the researchers wrote.

Encourage it to be methodical

A study by Google found that telling a chatbot to “take a deep breath and work on this problem step by step” produced markedly better answers to math questions. Other effective phrases—created largely by chatbots themselves—included “break this down” and “a little bit of arithmetic and a logical approach will help us quickly arrive at the solution to this problem.”

Chatbots primed with these encouraging words outperformed human-designed prompts by up to 8% on a test of grade-school math word problems, and by up to 50% on the BIG-Bench tasks, the researchers said.

Bart Ziegler is a former Wall Street Journal editor. He can be reached at reports@wsj.com.



15. Yahya Sinwar Helped Start the Gaza War. Now He’s Key to Its Endgame.




Yahya Sinwar Helped Start the Gaza War. Now He’s Key to Its Endgame.

The New York Times · by Adam Rasgon · May 12, 2024

Hamas’s leader in Gaza is considered an architect of the Oct. 7 attacks that prompted Israel to retaliate. As mediators seek a cease-fire, a deal depends on Mr. Sinwar as well as his Israeli foes.

Listen to this article · 10:17 min Learn more


Yahya Sinwar, center, Hamas’s leader in Gaza, in Gaza City last year. He is now believed to be hiding in a tunnel network in the enclave.

Reporting from Jerusalem and Washington, the reporters spoke to officials from Hamas, Israel and the United States about Mr. Sinwar.

May 12, 2024, 12:01 a.m. ET

After Hamas attacked Israel in October, igniting the Gaza war, Israeli leaders described the group’s most senior official in the territory, Yahya Sinwar, as a “dead man walking.” Considering him an architect of the raid, Israel has portrayed Mr. Sinwar’s assassination as a major goal of its devastating counterattack.

Seven months later, Mr. Sinwar’s survival is emblematic of the failures of Israel’s war, which has ravaged much of Gaza but left Hamas’s top leadership largely intact and failed to free most of the captives taken during the October attack.

Even as Israeli officials seek his killing, they have been forced to negotiate with him, albeit indirectly, to free the remaining hostages. Mr. Sinwar has emerged not only as a strong-willed commander but as a shrewd negotiator who has staved off an Israeli battlefield victory while engaging Israeli envoys at the negotiating table, according to officials from Hamas, Israel and the United States. Some spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence assessments of Mr. Sinwar and diplomatic negotiations.

While the talks are mediated in Egypt and Qatar, it is Mr. Sinwar — believed to be hiding in a tunnel network beneath Gaza — whose consent is required by Hamas’s negotiators before they agree to any concessions, according to some of those officials.

Hamas officials insist that Mr. Sinwar does not have the final say in the group’s decisions. But though Mr. Sinwar does not technically have authority over the entire Hamas movement, his leadership role in Gaza and his forceful personality have given him outsize importance in how Hamas operates, according to allies and foes alike.

“There’s no decision that can be made without consulting Sinwar,” said Salah al-Din al-Awawdeh, a Hamas member and political analyst who befriended Mr. Sinwar while they were both jailed in Israel during the 1990s and 2000s. “Sinwar isn’t an ordinary leader, he’s a powerful person and an architect of events. He’s not some sort of manager or director, he’s a leader,” Mr. al-Awawdeh added.

Mr. Sinwar has rarely been heard from since the start of the war, unlike Hamas officials based outside Gaza, including Ismail Haniyeh, the movement’s most senior civilian official. Though he is nominally junior to Mr. Haniyeh, Mr. Sinwar has been central to Hamas’s behind-the-scenes decision to hold out for a permanent cease-fire, American and Israeli officials say.

Damage in Ashkelon, Israel, on Oct. 7. As an architect of the attacks that day, Mr. Sinwar masterminded a strategy that he knew would provoke a ferocious Israeli response.Credit...Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

Waiting for Mr. Sinwar’s approval has often slowed the negotiations, according to officials and analysts. Israeli strikes have damaged much of Gaza’s communications infrastructure, and it has sometimes taken a day to get a message to Mr. Sinwar and a day to receive a response, according to U.S. officials and Hamas members.

For Israeli and Western officials, Mr. Sinwar has over the course of these negotiations, which stalled again in Cairo this past week, emerged as both a brutal adversary and a deft political operator, capable of analyzing Israeli society and appearing to adapt his policies accordingly.

As an architect of the Oct. 7 attacks, Mr. Sinwar masterminded a strategy that he knew would provoke a ferocious Israeli response. But in Hamas’s calculus, the deaths of many Palestinian civilians — who do not have access to Hamas’s subterranean tunnels — were the necessary cost of upending the status quo with Israel.

American and Israeli intelligence agencies have spent months assessing Mr. Sinwar’s motivations, according to people briefed on the intelligence. Analysts in both the United States and Israel believe that Mr. Sinwar is primarily motivated by a desire to take revenge on Israel and weaken it. The well-being of the Palestinian people or the establishment of a Palestinian state, the intelligence analysts say, appears to be secondary.

An Understanding of Israeli Society

Mr. Sinwar was born in Gaza in 1962 to a family that had fled its home, along with several hundred thousand other Palestinian Arabs who fled or were forced to flee during the wars surrounding the creation of the state of Israel.

Mr. Sinwar joined Hamas in the 1980s. He was later imprisoned for murdering Palestinians whom he accused of apostasy or collaborating with Israel, according to Israeli court records from 1989. Mr. Sinwar spent more than two decades in Israeli detention before being released in 2011, along with more than 1,000 other Palestinians, in exchange for one Israeli soldier captured by Hamas. Six years later, Mr. Sinwar was elected leader of Hamas in Gaza.

Ismail Haniyeh, left, one of the most senior leaders of Hamas, and Mr. Sinwar in Gaza City in 2017. Though he is nominally junior to Mr. Haniyeh, Mr. Sinwar has been central to Hamas’s behind-the-scenes decision to hold out for a permanent cease-fire, American and Israeli officials say.Credit...Mohammed Salem/Reuters

While in prison, Mr. Sinwar learned Hebrew and developed an understanding of Israeli culture and society, according to fellow former inmates and Israeli officials who monitored him in prison. Mr. Sinwar now appears to be using that knowledge to sow divisions in Israeli society and heighten pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, according to Israeli and U.S. officials.

They believe that Mr. Sinwar has timed the release of videos of some Israeli hostages in order to spur public outrage at Mr. Netanyahu during crucial phases of the cease-fire talks.

Some Israelis want the remaining hostages released even if it means agreeing to Hamas’s demands for a permanent truce that would keep the group — and Mr. Sinwar — in power. But Mr. Netanyahu has been reluctant to agree to end the war, partly because of pressure from some of his right-wing allies, who have threatened to resign if the war concludes with Hamas unbroken.

If Mr. Netanyahu has been accused of dragging out the fighting for personal benefit, so, too, has his archenemy, Mr. Sinwar.

Israeli and U.S. intelligence officers say that Mr. Sinwar’s strategy is to keep the war going for as long as it takes to shred Israel’s international reputation and to damage its relationship with its primary ally, the United States. As Israel faced intense pressure to avoid launching an operation in Rafah, Hamas fired rockets last Sunday from Rafah toward a nearby border crossing, killing four Israeli soldiers.

If this was a gambit by Hamas, it appeared to pay off: Israel began an operation this past week on the fringes of Rafah, and against that backdrop President Biden made his strongest criticism of Israeli policy since the war began. Mr. Biden said he would halt some future arms shipments if the Israeli military began a full-scale invasion of the city’s urban core.

Palestinians who fled Rafah after Israeli evacuation orders setting up tents in the ruins of homes in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, on Tuesday.Credit...Haitham Imad/EPA, via Shutterstock

Projecting an Image of Unity

Hamas and its allies deny that either Mr. Sinwar or the movement is trying to leverage further Palestinian suffering.

“Hamas’s strategy is to stop the war right now,” said Ahmed Yousef, a Hamas veteran based in Rafah. “To stop the genocide and the killing of the Palestinian people.”

U.S. officials say that Mr. Sinwar has shown disdain for his colleagues outside Gaza, who were not informed about the precise plans for Hamas’s attack on Oct. 7. American officials also believe that Mr. Sinwar approves military operations conducted by Hamas, though Israeli intelligence officers say they are unsure of the extent of his involvement.

A senior Western official familiar with the cease-fire negotiations believes that Mr. Sinwar appears to makes decisions in concert with his brother, Muhammad, a senior Hamas military leader, and that throughout the war he had sometimes disagreed with Hamas leaders outside Gaza. While the outside leadership has at times been more willing to compromise, Mr. Sinwar is less ready to concede ground to the Israeli negotiators, in part, because he knows that he is likely to be killed whether or not the war ends, the official said.

Even if negotiators seal a cease-fire deal, Israel is likely to pursue Mr. Sinwar for the rest of his life, the official said.

Hamas members have projected an image of unity, downplaying Mr. Sinwar’s personal role in decision-making and maintaining that Hamas’s elected leadership collectively determines the movement’s trajectory.

Some say that if Mr. Sinwar has played a bigger role during this war, it is mostly because of his position: As the leader of Hamas in Gaza, Mr. Sinwar has greater say, though not the final call, according to Mousa Abu Marzouk, a senior Hamas official based in Qatar.

“Sinwar’s opinion is very important because he’s on the ground and he’s leading the movement on the inside,” said Mr. Abu Marzouk, the first leader of Hamas’s political office in the 1990s.

But Mr. Haniyeh has the “final say” on key decisions, Mr. Abu Marzouk said, adding that all of Hamas’s political leaders were of “one opinion.” Mr. Haniyeh could not immediately be reached for comment.

Still, there is something unusual about Mr. Sinwar’s force of personality, according to Mr. al-Awawdeh, his friend from prison. Other leaders might not have instigated the Oct. 7 attack, preferring to focus on technocratic matters of governance, Mr. al-Awawdeh said.

Israel’s military escorted international journalists into one large tunnel, which they said was part of the Hamas network, in December.Credit...Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

“If someone else had been in his position, things might have gone in a calmer way,” he said.

Mr. Sinwar himself could not be reached for comment and has rarely been heard from since October. U.S. and Israeli officials have said Mr. Sinwar is hiding near hostages, using them as human shields. An Israeli hostage who was released during a truce in November said she met Mr. Sinwar during her captivity.

In February, the Israeli military published a video that it said soldiers had taken from a security camera they found in a Hamas tunnel beneath Gaza. The video showed a man hurrying down the tunnel, accompanied by a woman and children.

The military said the man was Mr. Sinwar, fleeing with his family.

The claim was impossible to verify: The man’s face was turned away from the camera.

Patrick Kingsley is The Times’s Jerusalem bureau chief, leading coverage of Israel, Gaza and the West Bank. More about Patrick Kingsley

Julian E. Barnes covers the U.S. intelligence agencies and international security matters for The Times. He has written about security issues for more than two decades. More about Julian E. Barnes

Adam Rasgon reports from Israel for The Times's Jerusalem bureau. More about Adam Rasgon

See more on: Israel-Hamas War News

The New York Times · by Adam Rasgon · May 12, 2024



16. Fooled by AI? These firms sell deepfake detection that’s ‘REAL 100%.’





Graphics at the link.


Fooled by AI? These firms sell deepfake detection that’s ‘REAL 100%.’

A surge of companies now claim to offer hyper-accurate detection services, but their capabilities are largely untested.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/05/12/ai-deepfakes-detection-industry/?

By Nitasha Tiku and Tatum Hunter

May 12, 2024 at 7:02 a.m. EDT



(Illustration by Emma Kumer/The Washington Post



In a world desperate not to be fooled by artificial intelligence, Deep Media is a rising star.


The Bay Area start-up — which claims it can identify eerily lifelike, AI-created images, audio and video with 99 percent accuracy — has won at least five military contracts worth nearly $2 million since late 2022, including a $1.25 million deal to develop a custom detector to help the Air Force counter Russian and Chinese information warfare. Last month, its CEO, Rijul Gupta, testified before a Senate subcommittee about the threat AI “deepfakes” pose to U.S. elections.


But despite Deep Media’s growing prominence, the company’s sole machine learning engineer graduated from college two years ago — with an undergraduate degree in astrophysics, according to his LinkedIn profile. Meanwhile, a review of other employee LinkedIn profiles suggests the company has no PhDs, AI specialists or forensic scientists on staff — a lack of subject matter expertise that, experts say, suggests a disconnect from the fast-moving deepfake research community.



Deep Media claims it's software can detect when a video or image has been manipulated by AI. (Video: Deep Media)

Gupta is “essentially saying, ‘Trust me.’ And that doesn’t work in science,” said Wael Abd-Almageed, a Clemson University professor who studies deepfakes.


Whatever its bona fides, Deep Media is part of a growing segment of start-ups pitching themselves as a bulwark against the flood of fake content that has risen alongside new, easy-to-use AI tools. Fears that synthetic media could disrupt elections and threaten national security have left institutions such as Congress, the military and the media desperately searching for a trustworthy technical fix to identify fake content. Last week, ChatGPT maker OpenAI announced that it is developing its own detection tool.


But while detection is an increasingly crucial and sought-after service, its capabilities are largely untested. The methods used to create deepfakes are constantly evolving, meaning detection tools built in a lab don’t always work in the wild, academics and researchers say. A test of several publicly accessible, free or low-cost deepfake detectors by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism in April found that most could be fooled by the same techniques they were supposed to spot.

Nonetheless, about 40 young companies now offer deepfake detection services, with some claiming startling levels of accuracy: Originality.ai promises “99% AI CONTENT DETECTION ACCURACY.” AI Voice Detector says its tool can “ensure authenticity in important situations,” including court cases. GPTZero says it “convincingly surpasses all notable competitor AI detection services.” And to demonstrate its prowess, Kroop AI shows two seemingly identical cartoon faces on its website, one labeled “REAL 100%” and the other “FAKE 100%.”


Kroop AI CEO Jyoti Joshi said the cartoons are meant to illustrate how high-quality deepfakes can look strikingly realistic, adding that his company’s tool excels at picking up “subtle signatures” left by generative AI. Other companies said their detection results should not be read as the final word, with AI Voice Detector CEO Abdellah Azzouzi saying his company encourages users “to investigate more … after getting the results.”


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And though Originality.ai claims 99 percent accuracy, CEO Jon Gillham wrote in a statement to The Post that such claims “should not be believed” unless they’re unsupported by test results. Pointing to a company blog post, Gillham said his company discloses its detector’s results on five third-party data sets, as well as testing results for other detectors.


According to the analytics firm PitchBook, venture capitalists invested $200 million in deepfake start-ups globally in 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, up from $6.6 million in 2017. Those figures cover deepfake creation companies as well as detectors, but some of the biggest deals were for tools to identify AI-manipulated media. Still, spending on deepfake detection is paltry compared with the $29 billion invested in generative AI deals last year, per PitchBook, including funding for popular tools that can be abused to make deceptive images, clone voices or edit video.


With wars raging in Ukraine and Gaza and more than 4 billion people eligible to vote in elections this year, forensic scholars say the surge of detection start-ups — particularly those boasting near-perfect accuracy — risks throwing gasoline on the growing AI fire by providing a false sense of certainty about the legitimacy of some visual and audio content, while eroding public confidence in authentic pieces of media.


The potential security risks from labeling a piece of content “fake” are mounting. In October, the tech news site 404 Media reported that the free tool AI or Not marked an image the Israeli government claimed showed atrocities committed by Hamas as fake, contrary to expert opinion.

AI or Not CEO Anatoly Kvitnitsky said that, of a few dozen images related to the Hamas attack, “We got all of them right except this one.” AI or Not has since improved its tool, Kvitnitsky said, but he acknowledged that the mistake was concerning.


“I’m actually born in Ukraine and Jewish,” he said, “so it did hit home when we got some of this wrong.”


Deep Media also has found evidence of AI manipulation where others have not. Last month, Gupta told The Post that his company’s tool detected a “high likelihood” that a closely scrutinized video of Catherine, Princess of Wales, announcing her cancer diagnosis had been manipulated with AI.



AI-GENERATED IMAGE: A look at what DeepMedia’s DeepID tool looks like when it detects an AI-generated fake photo. This image was labeled by The Washington Post. (DeepMedia) ***Caption must include “AI-generated fake image labeled by The Washington Post.” (DeepMedia)


HANDOUT IMAGE: A look at what DeepMedia’s DeepID tool looks like when it detects a real image. (DeepMedia)

Experts including Clemson’s Abd-Almageed, Brown University misinformation researcher Claire Wardle and Hao Li, the CEO of AI video effects company Pinscreen, said they found no evidence that the video, which was filmed by the BBC in March, was manipulated with AI.

In a more recent interview, Gupta told The Post that the company stands by its analysis. Gupta also defended the company’s level of AI expertise. Gupta, who graduated from Yale with a degree in biochemical engineering, said he personally has 15 years of experience in machine learning, beginning when he was 15 years old. He added that Deep Media employs experienced contractors, including PhDs who are still in college, but declined to name them.


“AI is a rapidly evolving technology that requires deepfake detection AI models to keep up with bad actors,” Gupta said in a statement, noting that Deep Media has trained and tested numerous detection models.

“Deepfake detection is a very difficult problem,” Gupta said in the interview, “and Deep Media is working tirelessly to continue to advance our technology.”


‘Can I trust it or not?’

Forensic scholar Hany Farid, a professor at the University of California at Berkeley, told The Post he’s spoken with four different developers this month who boast near-perfect detection rates. But he said start-ups can boost their numbers by grading themselves on a curve: They often train detection models on a particular set of deepfakes and then evaluate their ability to identify the same type of fakes.


In the real world, deceptive media may not exhibit the patterns AI has learned to detect, Farid said, adding that a more reliable approach requires a nimble combination of computer programming, physics, open-source intelligence and forensics.


Farid’s own detection start-up, Get Real Labs, uses machine learning, but also analyzes elements including shadows, geometry, compression settings and results of reverse-image searches, he said. Eventually, the company might achieve the accuracy to summarize its results in a “final answer” for clients, he said, but the science isn’t there yet.


“If you start to say, ‘We can, with high precision, tell whether something is real or fake,’ and you get it wrong, you are part of the problem,” Farid said. “In fact, you are arguably worse than the disease.”


This gap between lab and real-world results makes it difficult to evaluate competing detectors, Abd-Almageed said. And it makes the slew of entrepreneurs pivoting into deepfake detection as a hot start-up sector, akin to crypto or AI itself, particularly concerning, Farid said.


While boastful claims from eager start-ups are nothing new in Silicon Valley, Raquel Vázquez Llorente, head of technology threats and opportunities for the nonprofit Witness, said conclusions about content such as “80 percent AI-generated” can mislead the public.


“What the hell does that mean?” she said at a recent conference on generative AI and the law. “Can I trust it or not?”


Because deepfake detection is particularly urgent in an election year, Oren Etzioni, co-founder of the Allen Institute for AI, recently founded the nonprofit TrueMedia.org, which is dedicated to developing a trustworthy detection tool that it offers free to fact-checkers.


The Pentagon also is moving faster to keep pace with technological advancements. It has made itself more welcoming to tech start-ups by modernizing its acquisition process and loosening eligibility restrictions for its Small Business Innovation Research development fund. Known as SBIR, the three-stage program finances promising ideas, develops the technology and, finally, puts the technology into production. Most start-ups never make it to the third phase.


All five of Deep Media’s publicly listed military contracts were SBIR grants. Three have ended and a fourth ends in July, while the $1.25 million AI detection deal with the Air Force — now in phase two of SBIR — ends in November.


In a statement, Pentagon spokesperson Jeff Jurgensen said the Defense Department evaluates every SBIR proposal by “considering factors such as technical merit, defense requirements, and commercial potential,” looking for small businesses that might appeal to private investors, who have access to more capital.


99 percent accurate


Before focusing on deepfake detection, Deep Media was in the business of creating synthetic media. The company released what it called a universal translator to dub videos and launched a series of content creation apps, including Babble, CopyCat.ai, DubSync and PolyTalk. Two of the company’s smaller military contracts were for AI translation services.


“The reason that our deepfake detectors work — the reason we have Pentagon contracts — is because we’ve been pioneering the generative side for such a long time,” Gupta told The Post.


In previous press interviews, Gupta has claimed a 99 percent accuracy rate in identifying deepfakes. He amended that somewhat in his interview with The Post, saying he is committed to offering clients at least 95 percent accuracy, even on “the latest and greatest, highest-quality, hardest-to-detect deepfakes.”


Gupta said he tries to avoid misleading numbers, acknowledging that “people can fool you when they talk about accuracy.” If 10 images in a universe of 1,000 are fake, the model can declare everything real and be 99 percent accurate, he said. But in reality, he said, “That number is meaningless, right?”


In talking with The Post, Gupta repeatedly cited a $25 million, three-year cooperative research agreement for deepfake data generation and detection with the Air Force Research Laboratory as evidence of the company’s credibility. A copy of the contract reviewed by The Post shows that 60 percent of the $25 million value comes from resources provided by Deep Media.


The agreement previously has been cast as a $25 million contract, but Gupta acknowledged “that might have been misrepresented” in the press. The agreement does not provide “revenue coming into the company,” he said, “but it is supporting our AI research.”


Meanwhile, the advisory firm that helped Deep Media obtain its military contracts has since sued the company for failing to pay its bills. The lawsuit, filed in federal court in March by Stonegardens Advisory, also alleges that Deep Media falsely claimed Stonegardens’s managing member, a former Marine, as a Deep Media executive on its website and in marketing materials, as well as onstage at SXSW and Air Force events. Stonegardens declined to comment on the case.


Gupta declined to address the lawsuit’s claims. He told The Post that Deep Media began applying for military contracts because he fears that manipulative synthetic media could destabilize American society.

“If our government doesn’t have a deepfake detector,” Gupta said, “our government doesn’t know what’s real and what’s fake.”


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By Nitasha Tiku

Nitasha Tiku is The Washington Post's tech culture reporter based in San Francisco.  Twitter


By Tatum Hunter

Tatum Hunter writes about personal technology and its impact on our wallets, brains and environment. She joined The Washington Post from Built In, where she covered software and the tech workforce. Twitter


17. US Army Chief of Staff reflects on the need for “difficult choices”


The CSA has one of the toughest jobs as he can never please everyone and he has about a half million or more second guessers for every decision he makes.


I am reminded of my first platoon sergeant, Henry Lee. I recell him telling the platoon that they failed his motor pool inspection on a Friday afternoon and they had to return to make corrections. 


Some of the troops griped and one said this is not the way to make friends. SSG Lee said he did not join the Army to have friends, he got married to do that. And he made them return to the motor pool.


US Army Chief of Staff reflects on the need for “difficult choices”

https://www.rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/us-army-chief-staff-reflects-need-difficult-choices?utm

10 May 2024

4 Minutes




On 9 May, the Chief of Staff for the US Army, General Randy George delivered the annual Kermit Roosevelt Lecture at RUSI, reflecting on the challenges and opportunities presented by an increasingly complex global strategic landscape.

In his opening remarks and over the course of a Q and A session, General George provided his insights on the contemporary geopolitical context – as seen through the lens of the United States – and discussed the implications for US national security.

Drawing on his experience as a military leader, including first-hand perspectives on effective leadership and the strategies for driving meaningful change within a military organisation, General George also outlined how the US Army is transforming to meet the demands of an increasingly dangerous world.

In his prepared remarks, General George said:

Today, there is clearer cooperation between adversaries than we’ve seen in a long time, and those adversaries are blatantly challenging the rules-based world order. Nothing made that clearer than when Russia launched its conventional assault on Ukraine just over 800 days ago… there are flashing red lights in the world around us, requiring us to make difficult choices and move with a greater sense of urgency… [looking ahead] we need to ensure that we are prepared to warfight at scale.

Chief of Staff for the US Army, General Randy George

Reflecting on General George’s address, Director of RUSI’s Military Sciences Research Group, Matthew Savill said:

The UK government has argued that we are in a pre-war period, necessitating an increase in defense spending and a more assertive foreign policy that support our values and interests. What General George provided today is an insight into how the US Army will be approaching modern challenges and preparing for contemporary warfare, and by extension provided lessons for the British Army and UK Armed Forces about where they may need to prioritise to be able to fight effectively and make a valuable contribution to working with our international partners.

Matthew Savill

Director of Military Sciences

About the Kermit Roosevelt Lecture

The Kermit Roosevelt Exchange Lecture Series, paying tribute to Kermit Roosevelt, son of President Theodore Roosevelt, holds a special place in transatlantic military history. Kermit Roosevelt's dual service in the US and British armies during the First and Second World Wars underscores the deep-rooted military alliance between the two nations. The annual lecture series serves as a poignant reflection of the enduring dedication to Anglo-American military collaboration.

The lectures provide a valuable opportunity for enhancing mutual understanding and collaboration between the armed forces of the United States and the United Kingdom. They serve as a platform for dialogue and exchange of ideas, aiming to strengthen relations and improve understanding of how to achieve operational effectiveness.

The attendance of military personnel, policymakers, and scholars at these lectures underscores the importance of fostering transatlantic relationships and promoting greater interoperability between the two nations' military forces. By engaging in these lectures, participants aim to contribute to the continued advancement of Anglo-American military cooperation and the preservation of shared security interests.



18. On a D.C. sidewalk, a race to save a Marine general’s life


What a story. Thank you to a great American family for saving the Commander's life.


Now we all need to reflect on our own mortality. And everyone must refresh their training in CPR.



On a D.C. sidewalk, a race to save a Marine general’s life

Gen. Eric M. Smith collapsed in cardiac arrest while out for a run. This is the remarkable, previously untold story of how he survived.


By Dan Lamothe

May 10, 2024 at 6:00 a.m. EDT


Timothy LaLonde, left, and his sister Joyce LaLonde pose for a portrait after they were recognized by Gen. Eric M. Smith at a small ceremony at Marine Barracks Washington on Thursday. The pair and others came to the rescue of Smith, the commandant of the Marine Corps, last year after he collapsed with cardiac arrest during a run. (Matt McClain/The Washington Post)

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Gen. Eric M. Smith stepped out on a warm, late-afternoon run last fall, pounding the pavement of Southeast Washington on a routine three-mile loop. As the top U.S. Marine, he had spent the morning cheering on participants in the annual Marine Corps Marathon, and wanted to squeeze in his own workout before taking his wife out to dinner.


It was Oct. 29. A few blocks away, Timothy and Joyce LaLonde concluded a celebratory post-race lunch and began the walk back to Joyce’s nearby home. The siblings, accompanied by several family members, were shaken by what they encountered: A man facedown on the sidewalk — alone, unresponsive and bleeding from his mouth.


“Tim, come!” Joyce LaLonde recalled yelling to her brother. “Hurry!”

The ensuing scramble saved the life of the Marine Corps commandant, a father of two who had stepped into his new role on the Joint Chiefs of Staff just three months earlier. Smith, who turns 59 in June, suffered cardiac arrest at the tail end of his run, just a block from his home at Marine Barracks Washington — a crisis in which the speed and quality of medical intervention proved vital.


For the first time, those directly connected to Smith’s rescue have publicly detailed how he survived, a fortuitous succession of events resulting in an improbable return to the Pentagon after barely four months of recovery. This account is based on hours of interviews with the general and eight others, including Smith’s surgeon and the paramedics who administered several electrical shocks to stabilize his heart.


What began with Joyce LaLonde spotting the general sprawled on a brick sidewalk and her brother, a certified CPR instructor, rendering aid ended, all agreed, with the best possible outcome.


“If you were to have this scenario play out 1,000 times, maybe five people … would survive it like he did,” said Smith’s cardiac surgeon, Thomas MacGillivray. “It’s an unusual thing that somebody gets CPR for that long and not just survives it, but is back to normal life within a couple of few months.”


Impossible, he added, without everyone having provided the care they did.


On Thursday, Smith thanked Joyce and Timothy LaLonde and Joyce’s husband, Nathaniel Birnbaum, in a small ceremony at the commandant’s home. Each received the Navy Distinguished Public Service Award for their heroism. On Friday, they were recognized again along with first responders during an “Evening Parade” event at the barracks featuring marching and music.


“You have really given me a second chance,” Smith said Thursday, pinning the medal, with its blue and yellow ribbon, to their chests. “I’m grateful to you.”



Marine Corps Gen. Eric M. Smith poses for a portrait at his residence at Marine Barracks Washington on Thursday, after a ceremony in which he recognized the three people who came to his rescue. (Matt McClain/The Washington Post)

The stricken stranger

The LaLonde family encountered Smith shortly before 5 p.m., with Joyce LaLonde, 28, and her husband, Nathaniel Birnbaum, 28, first to arrive at the general’s side, she said. Timothy LaLonde, 33, and their father, Steven LaLonde, 66, were a few paces behind. They turned the stricken stranger on his side before deciding CPR was necessary.

Joyce LaLonde was put on hold initially when she dialed D.C.’s 911 system, she said, prompting her to hang up, call again, and urge her husband to try to find help at a nearby police station. The delay did not prove fateful, but has occurred numerous times in the District, as it struggles with documented staffing shortages. She connected with a dispatcher at 4:58 p.m., relaying her location and the situation’s extreme urgency, said Noah Gray, a spokesman for the D.C. fire department.


D.C.’s Office of Unified Communications offered no details in response to questions about the incident, but acknowledged in an email that the 911 system sometimes gets an “unpredictable spike in calls” that results in callers hearing an automated message. The office recommended against hanging up in such cases.



Marine Corps Gen. Eric M. Smith, left, holds the finish-line banner as Bonnie Keating of Fairfax, Va., wins the women's division of the 48th Marine Corps Marathon in Arlington, Va., on Oct. 29, 2023. Later that day, Smith suffered cardiac arrest while on his own run. (Jose Luis Magana/AP)


Joyce LaLonde, left, and her brother Timothy, far right, in Washington with other family members after they completed the 48th Marine Corps Marathon in Arlington, Va., on Oct. 29, 2023. Shortly after this photo was taken, Timothy and Joyce found Gen. Eric M. Smith lying unresponsive on the ground. (LaLonde family)

Timothy LaLonde, of Kirkland, Wash., estimated that he administered CPR for about nine minutes, pumping Smith’s chest and checking to see if anything was blocking his airway. Eventually, the general began gasping sporadically, giving the LaLondes hope.


A four-man team with Engine Company 18 arrived about five minutes after the 911 call, said Ryan Crowell, a former D.C. paramedic and firefighter who responded that day. They took over CPR, zapped Smith with an automated defibrillator, loaded him aboard an ambulance, and rolled to the hospital at 5:18 p.m.


No one knew they were working on one of the Pentagon’s top generals.


Lt. Holly O’Byrne, a paramedic and supervisor who accompanied the general in the ambulance, said that as it became increasingly clear Smith was responding to treatment, she administered medication to stabilize his blood pressure and heart rate, intubated him and assisted his breathing by squeezing a handheld air bag. The general’s piercing blue eyes caught her attention, she recalled.


MacGillivray, the cardiac surgeon, said that when Smith arrived at MedStar Washington Hospital Center, it appeared the general may have had a heart attack. But his care team soon diagnosed it was aortic stenosis, a condition in which the aortic valve narrows, preventing the normal flow of blood away from the heart. Smith was treated that night with a tiny wire that inflates like a balloon to reopen the valve and a small implanted defibrillator designed to detect any future cardiac arrest or arrhythmia, the surgeon said.


“We stabilized him with the balloon, but that did not solve the problem,” MacGillivray said. “That was kind of like throwing someone a life jacket.”



A Marine stands outside the residence of Gen. Eric M. Smith before a ceremony in which he recognized Timothy LaLonde, his sister Joyce LaLonde and her husband Nathaniel Birnbaum on Thursday. (Matt McClain/The Washington Post)

Looking for ‘John Doe’


A block away from where Smith had collapsed, the general’s wife, Patrisha, had been waiting outside for a delivery at the Home of the Commandants, the venerable residence where the top Marine Corps general lives. She could see an ambulance in the distance, she recalled.


“I just remember thinking to myself, ‘Oh, they’ve got their lights on so they’re transporting somebody,’” she said. “Little did I know that it was Eric in the back of that ambulance.”


For a while, she thought that maybe her husband had stopped to talk to Marines. Marathon day is typically bursting with energy, and it would not have been unusual for him to do so.


But as minutes turned to hours, she began to worry. She and the general’s staff urgently sought to track him down, visiting two hospitals where unnamed patients — listed as “John Does” — had been admitted. Smith was carrying a government ID, his wife said, but in the commotion to save his life, it had been missed. They found him at the second hospital.


Patrisha Smith, her voice thickening, said she did not initially realize how critical the situation was. She is grateful that the nurses who allowed her to stay with her husband that night in the intensive care unit did not overwhelm her with details.


“They might have thought that he wasn’t going to make it,” she said. “But they didn’t relay that to me. And I appreciate that because it gave me hope.”



Joyce LaLonde embraces Patrisha Smith, in red, the wife of Gen. Eric M. Smith, left, as Gen. Smith recognizes Joyce and others during the ceremony Thursday. (Matt McClain/The Washington Post)

‘We saved America!’

Once the paramedics took over, the LaLondes continued on to Joyce’s home. Three of them had blood on their clothes, she said, from having attempted to ensure the general’s injured mouth was clear of obstructions. The situation had been intense, and she doubled back to the scene about 20 minutes later, providing her contact information to authorities in case it would be helpful.


The family’s first hint that the patient was someone of prominence came a few hours later. While attending a concert by the singer Kesha, Joyce received a call from an agent with the Naval Criminal Investigative Service who wanted to know more about the incident, she said.


Two days later, on Oct. 31, the Marine Corps disclosed that Smith had been hospitalized with a health emergency. D.C. officials linked the situation with the cardiac arrest case that the LaLondes had been involved in, catching the attention of the first responders who were involved.



Three Navy Distinguished Public Service Award medals on display during the ceremony Thursday. (Matt McClain/The Washington Post)


Gen. Eric M. Smith, left, applauds Timothy LaLonde. (Matt McClain/The Washington Post)

O’Byrne, the paramedic who had intubated Smith, said she was sent a photograph of Smith and asked if it was the person she had helped. His bright blue eyes were unmistakable, she said.


“My actual comment was, ‘Holy s---, we saved America!’” she said. “That became how I told Firefighter Crowell … ‘Hey, guess what: We saved America!’”


Crowell, who has since moved back to his hometown of Syracuse, N.Y., said the incident underscores the unique nature of working emergency calls in the District.


“You never know,” Crowell said, “who the John Doe turns out to be.”

‘I’ll bounce back’

Smith awoke in the hospital last fall remembering he had gone for a run, but nothing after, he said. He was frustrated with the discomfort of his breathing tube, whose presence damaged his vocal cords, and a couple of teeth had been knocked out and his face was scraped from his fall.

“Like all good Marines,” Smith joked, “I was complaining about my care.”

The seriousness of the situation soon became clear. While the general had survived cardiac arrest, he still had an aortic bicuspid valve that had failed. The condition, said MacGillivray, is congenital and meant that Smith’s aortic valve had only two parts, or “leaflets,” pumping blood away from the heart, rather than the customary three.


Valve replacement surgery is common, but often it occurs after a patient experiences chest pain, fatigue and other less severe symptoms that prompt treatment. Smith told MacGillivray that he had been aware of his condition, the doctor said, but he had lived with it for years without issue and could run three miles in about 18 minutes.


The surgeon also was concerned about how Smith’s extended emergency and lack of oxygen might affect other parts of his body.

Smith initially had some abnormal kidney tests, MacGillivray said, but they improved quickly. The general’s overall physical fitness assisted in his recovery, the doctor said, though he required time to heal from the trauma of his resuscitation before undergoing open-heart surgery.


As his recuperation continued, Smith decided he also needed to record a message to show the Marines that he was okay. On Nov. 21, about three weeks after his cardiac arrest, he made a brief video thanking the Marines for their support. Smith wished them a happy Thanksgiving, and vowed he would be back.


“It’s not the first time I’ve been knocked down,” he told them, peering at the camera in his green camouflage uniform. “When I was shot in 2004, I bounced back from that, and I’ll bounce back from this.”



“You have really given me a second chance,” Gen. Eric M. Smith told the three bystanders who scrambled to rescue him. “I’m grateful to you.” (Matt McClain/The Washington Post)

On Jan. 8, Smith underwent surgery to have MacGillivray install a mechanical replacement valve. The procedure, the surgeon said, was a success, and Smith stepped back into his role as commandant without any physical restrictions. The general is back to weightlifting a few times per week, he said, with the tick-tick-tick of his mechanical valve an audible reminder of how far he has come.


“It’s like a little stopwatch. I can hear it ticking,” Smith said. “But it’s a good sound because it means I’m alive.”


Smith said that while he saw his “fair share of combat” in Iraq and Afghanistan, including the gunshot wound in Iraq and several explosions, the situation in the District last fall was different because he didn’t see it as a possibility. 


“My mission that day was just to run three miles — just doing my fitness routine,” Smith said. “It’s very different having that happen and having to rely on so many people to get you healthy again.”


Timothy LaLonde, who kept the commandant alive with CPR on the sidewalk, said that while the “odds are pretty low” of surviving such an event, his training helped.


“I’m just really proud of everyone in my family for how they responded,” he said. “There was a lot of luck that came in that day.”


Smith said that meeting his rescuers for the first time Thursday was “very strange and very rewarding.” He and his wife decided they needed to do something to recognize those involved, he said, and they hope it underscores the value of CPR training.


“If Mr. LaLonde had not been a CPR-certified instructor,” the general said, “I would not be standing here today.”

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By Dan Lamothe

Dan Lamothe joined The Washington Post in 2014 to cover the U.S. military. He has written about the Armed Forces for more than 15 years, traveling extensively, embedding with five branches of service and covering combat in Afghanistan. Twitter



19. US Marine officer claims 40% of drones the IDF has shot down were their own, report says


US Marine officer claims 40% of drones the IDF has shot down were their own, report says

Business Insider · by Rebecca Rommen

Military & Defense

Rebecca Rommen

2024-05-11T15:48:02Z

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Drone Pilot Maya O'Daly on July 30, 2019, at an army base in the South of Israel. Guy Prives | Getty Images

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  • A US Marine officer said the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has been shooting down some of its own drones.
  • The officer said the IDF had been taking out 40% of their own UAVs, per The War Zone.
  • An IDF spokesperson told BI they had increased "coordination processes" for aerial drones.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have been shooting down almost half of their own drones, a US Marine Corps officer has said.

Speaking at the Modern Day Marine exposition last week, Lt. Col. Michael Pruden told attendees that "40% of the UASs ... knocked out" by the IDF are cases of "friendly fire," The War Zone reported.

"As Israel's engaging in Gaza, and they're on their front line, they see a small UAS, what are they going to do if it's not identified immediately?" Pruden said. "They're going to shoot it down."

This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. Become an Insider and start reading now.

Pruden did not clarify where or when such incidents had occurred, but the implication was that it came from Israel's recent military operations in Gaza, which began after Hamas' October 7 attacks on Israel, the report said.

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Following the attacks, Israel has continued to carry out airstrikes on the territory, as well as launching a ground offensive. More than 34,000 Palestinians have been killed as a result of the operations so far, per the Gaza health ministry.

The Marine Corps told Business Insider that The War Zone report was accurately contextualized but declined to provide additional information.

The self-inflicted drone losses are the latest costly blunder of the IDF's operations in Gaza. Other incidents have included instances of friendly fire, with both Israeli soldiers and hostages reported to have fallen victim to such incidents.

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An IDF spokesperson told BI that "there were several incidents in which IDF drones were shot down by troops during combat" at the start of the Gaza conflict.

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"These incidents primarily occurred early in the conflict near an event where troops were hit by an enemy drone," they continued. "In the months that followed, these incidents dramatically decreased due to the establishment of coordination processes for flying drones."

The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank has said Israel is "one of the world's leading UAV users and manufacturers."


IDF

Other IDF mistakes have cost lives rather than just valuable equipment.

In April, two IDF reservists were killed after an Israeli tank shell hit the building where they were staying in an apparent case of mistaken identity, Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported.

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Another report in Haaretz earlier this week said that 22 IDF soldiers have been killed and 54 have been injured by friendly fire in the conflict so far.

In December, the IDF said it had accidentally killed three Israeli hostages after troops had "mistakenly identified" them as threats.

The IDF said in a statement following the incident that it expressed "deep remorse over the tragic incident and sends the families its heartfelt condolences."

Reports have also emerged suggesting that the IDF had likely accidentally killed Israeli citizens during Hamas' attacks on October 7.

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An IDF investigation found that 68-year-old Efrat Katz had likely been killed by Israel Air Force helicopter fire as she was being abducted by Hamas gunmen.

Israel Gaza

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Business Insider · by Rebecca Rommen






De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com


De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com



If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:


"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

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