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Growing geopolitical risk has drawn the attention of investors recently. Within the S&P 500 the technology and materials sector have the highest exposure with 59% and 53% of their revenue generated outside the US. The utilities sector meanwhile only generates 1% of its revenue internationally. 1
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The stock market is hitting numerous all-time highs this year, a shift from previous years. From 2013 to 2021, the S&P 500 averaged slightly over 38 all-time highs before entering a bear market, with only one occurrence in 2022 and none in 2023. However, in 2024, there have already been 22 new highs in the first four months of the year! *2
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Individuals reporting incomes over $500K or under $25K face double the likelihood of an IRS audit compared to those with incomes between $25K and $500K (0.4% versus 0.2%). Those reporting incomes exceeding $10 million have the highest audit probability, averaging 2.4% in 2020. 3
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S&P operating earnings are projected to rise by 10% this year, followed by increases of 14% and 11% in the next two years. Such consecutive double-digit growth outside of recession recoveries has only occurred twice since the 1980s, during the mid-1990s and mid-2000s. 4
- Fact Set – “S&P 500: Aggregate Geographic Revenue Exposure (%)”
- The Irrelevant Investor – “Don't Be Afraid"
- MFS - "Beyond the News"
- WSJ - "Interest Rates Have Investors Worried. Profits Give Them Comfort."
*Past performance is not indicative of future performance
Economic Calendar
Monday:
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks in Tokyo, Empire State manufacturing survey (Apr), U.S. retail sales (Mar), Retail sales minus autos (Mar), New York Fed President John Williams TV appearance, Business inventories (Feb), Home builder confidence index (Apr), San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks
Tuesday:
Housing starts (Mar), Building permits (Mar), Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks, Industrial production (Mar), Capacity utilization (Mar), Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks
Wednesday:
Fed Beige Book, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks
Thursday:
Initial jobless claims (Apr), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (Apr), Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speaks, New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Existing home sales (Mar), U.S. leading economic indicators (Mar), Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speaks
Friday:
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks
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