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Wheat was the shining light today in the markets as news came from overseas about Russia attacks on Odesa. Since last Friday, May corn is down 8 1/4 cents, May soybeans are down 4 1/4 cents, and May wheat is up 7 1/2 cents. We had some short selling ahead of the weekend, but we also saw some farmers taking advantage of the bounce, put a ceiling on the move.
Price discovery now becomes a function of weather (supply), as most in the ag trade are focused on how much US crop can get planted in the next 30 days. Next week we will see the April WASDE report, as well as the April Conab report, being the next market events.
Reports came through overnight about a Russian drone attack that damaged equipment at energy facilities in Ukraine's southern Odesa region. Ukraine was successful in shooting down 9 Russian drones – the debris from those drones are said to have damaged nearby residences and farm buildings. Russia has been ramping up their attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure the past several weeks, targeting thermal and hydro power plants. Odesa in home to Ukraine’s largest and most active seaport. The Russia/Ukraine story has not disappeared, we have just gotten more used to the headlines over the past 2 years. That being said, conflict encroaching closer to the grain movement cities is a reminder to the funds that are very short that things can change in a hurry, which is why we are seeing some short covering today.
Coupled with this, other reports overnight stated that Russian officials had halted grain shipments by Aston, one of the largest trading companies in Russia. Allegedly, some vessels were quarantined due to unissued phytosanitary certificates. Russian watchdog Rosselkhoznadzor has said that there has been increased complaints from importing countries on Russian grain not meeting quality standards. Aston denies that shipments were quarantined and that there have been no disruptions to their shipment program, and they are fulfilling all obligations in full, and on time. Through the first half of the 23/24 marketing year, Aston has exported more than 2.7 mmt of grain.
Today, Argentina’s crop estimate from the Buenos Aires Exchange had an update and the exchange named prevalent disease as a cause to cut 2 mmt from its outlook. Although not bearish, there is at least a 10 mmt production buffer that stands between comfort and concern for the Trade.
Funds were thought to have been mixed today with beans and wheat buyers and corn a seller. On Tuesday, funds were nearly on par with expectations.
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