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We kicked off the week with red across the board.
As a farmer, unfortunately, grain prices rely on an issue somewhere in the world. Supply and demand are the tenets on what economics occur. As much as we all want to root for more demand, fundamental changes in demand are often a more long-term change than short-term. (Think support that came from ethanol production, soyoil/biofuels, getting into different global markets). That means, in general, on a day to day, supply needs to be impacted to give farmers a chance at a selling-opportunity, or a bounce.
On Friday, we saw markets turn to the green heading into the weekend with tensions between Iran and Israel high. Geopolitical tensions like this have the ability to impact supply on the logistics piece of the puzzle. Increased war-activity could impact shipping along the red-sea, moreso for external commodities such as crude oil, but would reverberate through grains and oilseeds. Overall, the market is thirsty for SOMETHING. We have faded well, well off of our prices from a year ago and the bulls are wanting to grasp onto whatever they can. The Iran/Israel conflict was expected to escalate, BUT, most of the missiles were shot down and the US directly notified Israel to constrain itself in retaliation. As much as that is a positive story, grains are fading on the fact that it was not a bigger issue, as some shot down missiles don't help us stray from the sideways path we've been traversing.
With tensions on Iran/Israel simmering, and Russia/Ukraine's conflict remaining in the background, the trade is now going to start grasping at supply stories from the production side of things. Planting has kicked off in the U.S., and any report of delays or poor conditions will be closely watched. Today's crop conditions report showed that corn planting in the U.S. is 6% completed (3% LW, 7% LY, 5% avg), soybeans are 3% planted (3% LY, 1% Avg), and spring wheat is 7% completed (3% LW, 2% LY, 6% Avg). Winter wheat is shown at 55% Good/Excellent (56% LW, 27% LY, 46% Avg). Brazil and Argentina continues to be on the radar for the development of their crops. If you get nothing else from my report today: We need a supply issue to move us higher, if not, I believe we will remain where we are. Thankfully, due to us just getting into planting season, we are not at a stage where we can guarantee a perfect crop, giving us a bit of downside support for now.
This morning, private exporters reported sales of 165,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 135,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2023/2024 marketing year and 30,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2024/2025 marketing year. Today's export inspections report showed that U.S. wheat export inspections last week were above expectations and including 3 cargoes to China. This suggests that China does plan to take shipment of the rest of its purchases, which should help us hit USDA's target for the year. Volumes for corn and soybeans were within the expected ranges. Wheat and soy year to date gained ground over year-ago levels last week while corn slightly slipped.
NOPA data was out at noon and showed that crush for the month of March hit 196.4million bushels, up from 186.2 mbu last month and 185.8 mbu last year, and a single-month record for any month of the year, ahead of 195.3 mbu in December 2023. Cumulative Sept-March crush is up to 1308 mbu, 78.5 mbu ahead of last year's seven-month pace; that's still over 6% ahead of last year, with the USDA looking for a 4% YoY total crush rise. Marketing year to date NOPA soybean crush exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 24 million bushels, and the gap continues to grow.
Funds were thought to have been mostly sellers today.
Did you miss our midday commentary? Starting today, we have switched to sending a shortened midday commentary/prices by text ONLY. (Opening and Closing to remain on email for the time being). We are also looking at using texts to communicate any grain prices/specials that might be being offered as well. This is an effort to try to diversify our reach, and help you get quality grain information in a preferred manner! In doing this trial rollout, we would love any feedback that you might have! If you wish to join our text updates list, please text GRAIN to 519-800-0436. You can opt out at any time.
Three Oaks Cabin needs our help! Three Oaks Cabin, an ag and first responder-based mental health respite, is vying for BASF’s Growing Home’s $25,000 Ontario grant. Voting closes tonight, and they are neck and neck with the other 2 finalists. If you have a moment, please take the opportunity to vote.
https://agro.basf.ca/growinghome/voting.html
35% of farmers meet the classification for depression, 58% of farmers meet the classification for anxiety, and 45% of farmers report high stress. Let's help Three Oaks help our farming community!
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