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To all of our members, Happy 100th Anniversary! We hope that you all enjoyed the partial solar eclipse today as well! Talk about a momentous day!
U.S. corn export inspections were above all trade estimates last week and wheat was at the top end. Modest number for soybeans but still within reasonable volumes for the week. Previous week's numbers were adjusted upward.
Although demand has been the focus of the markets lately, we are going to start to see more of a shift to supply as we see Brazilian rains materialize, and the U.S. planting window open. Center-West Brazil is trending seasonally drier, but not as quickly as expected by the models. That reduces the scope of potential losses that we might see with Brazil’s winter-corn crop as it enters the critical pollination phase in the weeks ahead. AgResource Co. updated their Brazilian crop production estimates this morning. The group now sees soybean production out of Brazil at 145.46 mmt's, up from 143.92 mmt's in their previous estimate. Same group sees Brazil total corn production at 114.19 mmt's, compared with 114.94 in their previous estimate. Both estimates remain below the USDA, who will update numbers on Thursday. Analysts think USDA's WASDE report on Thursday could show slight upside to Argentina's corn & soybeans, though Brazil's crops could shrink a bit. USDA's Brazil soy estimate is among the industry's highest, and the market has been disappointed with USDA's reluctance to cut.
Farmers in the heart of the corn belt (Iowa and surroundings) are still nervous over dry soils but that won’t stop corn from going in the ground. With better seed genetics, less regular rains can sustain a good crop, but the key thing they cannot top is a good planting date. Any delays in planting will be closely watched.
Geopolitical risk supported the markets overnight and into the morning, but a quiet midday resulted in removed support. Overnight, Ukraine claimed it made a successful strike on a strategic Russia airfield, further escalating the risks of a counterattack by Russia.... one that did not happen today.
Today we also got an updated progress and conditions report. Corn is 3% planted, up 1% from last week. Spring wheat is also 3% planted, up from 1% last week. Winter wheat is pegged steady from last week at 56% good/excellent.
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