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On 01 December 2023, official reports indicated that militant members of the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) killed at least 39 civilians between 23 November 2023 and 01 December 2023 in the Arsi Zone of Oromia in Ethiopia.
Among the 39 victims, 36 were reported to have been killed in attacks over a 4-day period between 24 November and 27 November. The additional three were said to have been killed on 01 December.
The victims were all civilians having both Orthodox Christian and Amhara ethnic backgrounds, and the deceased included pregnant women and children.
It should be noted that the OLA consider the Amhara people to be invaders in the region. The current situation parallels that within the Oromia region from 2018 to 2020 when the population of Amhara was consistently targeted, resulting in a large number of casualties.
These most recent attacks bring the civilian death toll to over 80 since the beginning of October 2023 and come on the heels of the failed peace talks between the OLA and the Ethiopian government. The 2-week long peace summit took place in Tanzania and began with promises of ending the five-year militarized conflict in Oromia region but ended on 21 November with no agreement reached between the two parties. In fact, OLA accused the Ethiopian government for only being interested in the co-optation of the leadership of OLA rather than addressing the fundamental issues that underlie the seemingly insurmountable security and political challenges.
These attacks highlight the necessity for a decisive response from both the federal and regional governments—either through robust military action against OLA or through negotiations that actually view the OLA as an equal political partner. However, given the past governmental response, TRAC surmises both unlikely to happen, which will result in more targeted attacks against the Amhara people.
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TRAC Insight:
Overview of Islamic State Global Operations for November 2023 (Major Threat Areas: Syria [Triangle of Death], Nigeria, and Sahel)
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Islamic State (IS) claimed operations have seen an uptick after months of conscious decline, intentionally used to obscure IS operations globally. In October 2023, IS Central Command claimed responsibility for 64 attacks, a number that has now risen to 79 in the current month. Nevertheless, when contrasted with November 2022, the officially claimed operations have shown no variation. In November 2022, IS claimed responsibility for 79 attacks, which matches the current figures.
Despite the modest rise in officially claimed operations, it fails to provide a comprehensive understanding of IS activities involving all its affiliates on the ground. In addition to the acknowledged operations, TRAC documented 85 unclaimed operations associated with the Islamic State this month, determined through tactics, locations, and targets. When considering both claimed and unclaimed operations, the combined total reaches 164 attacks, marking a substantial 32% increase from the previous month.
A noteworthy observation is the number of exclusive claims released by IS Central Command in its weekly newspaper, al-Naba. In the preceding month, IS issued only 4 exclusive claims. Remarkably, this month has seen a surge to 13, a departure from IS norms. This unusual trend reinforces TRAC’s evaluation that all IS affiliates maintain consistent communication with the central command, which consistently employs the “strategy of deliberate silence.”
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Syria: Triangle of Death
Islamic State in Syria overshadowed all other affiliates with 57 claimed and unclaimed attacks throughout November 2023. The claimed attacks are still significantly low if compared to last season, however, this does not signify the group’s capability in the region. On the contrary, TRAC deduces that IS is intentionally laying low to avoid any unwanted attention towards its activities, especially in ash-Sham.
Islamic State Central Command has a clear strategy in place that will lead to the eventual establishment of Caliphate 2.0 in Sub-Saharan Africa. One of the prongs of this strategy is to take control of strategic roads and highways, allowing IS to expand into old territories and areas previously free from Islamic State presence. This strategy is evident across all IS affiliates in the African continent and has been witnessed across Iraq and Syria as well.
TRAC asserts that the organization has committed all its available resources to ensure the success of this offensive. As part of this approach, IS fighters launched a massive offensive targeting Afghan Fatemiyoun members along the M7 highway in as-Sukhnah, Homs. A similar incident was recorded in ar-Rusafa of Raqqa where IS militants killed 34 SAA soldiers in an armed assault.
These significant offensives did not come as a surprise due to the heightened activities of the Islamic State in the Homs-Raqqa-Deir Ezzor region. This region is a part of the Syrian Desert known as Badiya. In al-Naba Issue 349, an IS military official from Badiya Desert (Central Syria) stated, "...what the mujahideen in the desert hide is greater than what they advertise.” TRAC designates this region as the “Triangle of Death” considering no security forces or militia groups can navigate without falling prey to relentless ambushes by the Islamic State (see map above).
A closer look at the incidents occurring within and near the triangle indicates that the majority of IS cells are hiding in the Syrian Badia (desert) along strategic roads and highways. The geographical terrain provides them with a strategic advantage, enabling them to execute effective ambushes and easily blend into the desert, evading challenges from security forces. In November 2023, the focal point of IS attacks was primarily in the area encompassing Homs-Raqqa-Deir Ezzor and TRAC asserts that IS will probably continue this pattern in the months ahead.
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TRAC Incident Report:
Security Forces Arrest Lavara Nyanza, Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) / Islamic State Central Africa (ISCA/Wilayat Wasat Afriqiyah) Intelligence Operative, Jinja, Kiira Region, Uganda
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On 5 December 2023, Ugandan security forces arrested Lavara Nyanza, a 25-year-old Congolese national and alleged member of Islamic State Central Africa (ISCA) (formerly the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), in Jinja, Kiira Region.
Acting on intelligence provided by residents of Jinja, police arrested Nyanza while he was taking pictures of different buildings along Iganga Road, Southern Division, in Jinja City. He was found in possession of an unspecified amount of money and a mobile phone.
Subsequently, police raided Nyanza’s house, leading to the discovery of two bullets, and several pictures and documents of schools, and government installations, among others. No deaths or injuries were reported during this operation.
Lavara Nyanza was recruited by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) at the age of five years old. From 1998 to 2020, he served as a Chief Cook for the militants operating in DRC. In 2020, he was deployed with two other ADF members as an intelligence operative in Kasese District, Uganda. Subsequently, the trio was relocated to Mbarara City, and finally to Jinja.
Of note, the ADF pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in July 2019 and is now an affiliate of Islamic State Central Africa (ISCA/Wilayat Wasat Afriqiyah). TRAC speculates that Nyanza and his companions joined ISCA militants to organize attacks in the Ugandan territory. The three ISCA operatives were likely entrusted to collect intelligence on potential targets, and then submit the information to higher ups in Islamic State, who would materially plan and execute the assaults. Nyanza being arrested in area of Jinja in which different schools and universities are located, leads TRAC to maintain that the man arrested was collecting intelligence useful for attacks on educational institutions.
Further, TRAC does not rule out the presence of an Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) laboratory in Jinja. Indeed, ISCA relies on IEDs to carry out attacks in Uganda.
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TRAC Incident Report:
Helicopter Carrying Guyanese High-Ranking Military Officers Suspiciously Vanishes, Amid Tensions with Venezuela, Guyana
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On 06 December 2023, at 11:20am local time, a brand new Bell 412 EPI helicopter went missing 30 miles (48 kilometers) east of the Venezuelan border after departing from the Ayanganna base and refueling in Olive Creek, western Guyana. The aircraft was carrying three crew members as well as four senior military officers, who were deployed to inspect the situation in the Arau village area, near the border with Venezuela. Thus far, there has been no indication that the helicopter was shot down and a search and rescue operation is underway, with the assistance of the US.
Although there are no immediate reports about the aircraft being shot down, it is important to note that this incident comes one day after Venezuela’s President Maduro ordered the country's state-owned companies to "immediately" begin to explore and exploit the oil, gas, and mines in Guyana’s Essequibo area, as he prepares to annex the said territory to be a province of Venezuela.
In light of Venezuelan troops' intentions of invading Guyana's Essequibo by transiting through part of the Brazilian territory, the Brazilian authorities recently ordered the deployment of soldiers in Roraima state, near the border with Venezuela. In parallel, Maduro warned Guyana's mineral resources companies operating in the Essequibo region to leave the territory within three months.
Guyanese troops are vastly outnumbered by Venezuelan forces, with Guyana having 4,000 troops compared to Venezuela having an army of 200,000 soldiers. Hence, the President of Guyana has adopted some countermeasures, including placing the country's armed forces on full alert and reaching out to its allies, among them being the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, and France.
Following the threats of invasion launched by the Venezuelan dictator, the ultimatum given to the foreign mineral resources companies operating in Guyana’s Essequibo, and the subsequent request for assistance by Guyana’s President, the United States announced that it would carry out military air exercises in Guyana. It is TRAC’s assessment that this initiative is a message directed to President Maduro aimed at making him refrain from taking action, or prepare for a US military response.
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TRAC Incident Report: Houthi (Ansarallah) Militants Launch A Ballistic Missile Towards the City of Eilat, Israel | |
TRAC Incident Report: Brazilian Police Discovers Hezbollah Plan to Attack the Israeli Embassy and Jewish Targets, Brasilia, Federal District, Brazil | |
TRAC Incident Report: The Ukrainian Politician, Ilya Kiva, who Escaped to Russia in 2022, was Assassinated in Suponevo, the Moscow Outskirts, Russia | | | | |
