|
Despite a third round of Chinese wheat sale cancellations, wheat was the leading commodity today as it found buyers after hitting fresh lows late last week. Today's cancellations of sales included of 264,000 metric tons of soft red winter wheat for delivery to China during the 2023/2024 marketing year. This brings the total number of cancels to .5 mmt. The US still has 1.4 mmt of commitments on the books with China and .6 mmt of those commitments have shipped. Charts below show that corn and beans are currently above the 10 day Simple Moving Average (blue line), and attacking the 50 day SMA (yellow). This will be a resistance area, or a support line, depending how the markets react when we reach it.
Export inspections for the week were on par with expectations. Marketing year corn export inspections to date exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 28 million bushels, up from 27 million the previous week. Marketing year to date soybean export inspections essentially match the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target. Marketing year to date wheat export inspections fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 34 million bushels, versus being short by 36 million the previous week.
A heat dome will take temperatures in Brazil to over 40 °C (>104 F) this week, which is linked to El Niño presence. The heat dome will persist up to the weekend. Mid-day weather models ran drier for most South American crop areas for the extended time frames, though better rains are possible in far northern Brazil during the 11-15 day period to narrow some dryness concerns that will start to develop there.
| 
