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Quotes of the Day:
"It does not matter how slowly you go as long as you do not stop."
– Confucius
"Do the difficult things while they are easy and do the great things while they are small. A journey of a thousand miles must begin with a single step."
– Lao Tzu
"Be Impeccable With Your Word. Speak with integrity. Say only what you mean. Avoid using the word to speak against yourself or to gossip about others. Use the power of your word in the direction of truth and love."
– Don Miguel Ruiz
1. Russia sent more than 165,000 barrels of refined petroleum to N. Korea in March: White House
2. S. Korean military shoots down unidentified balloon near western maritime border in March
3. Toy Story's animated character found at N. Korea's fashion show in suspected trademark violation
4. Germany has yet to decide whether to reopen embassy in Pyongyang: envoy
5. N. Korea approves 1st post-pandemic entry of Chinese students
6. Unification minister, senior German official discuss unification issues
7. S. Korea’s potential participation in AUKUS Pillar 2 is discussed
8. ‘Why are we defending the rich country?’
9. Editorial: S. Korea must speak out against China’s forced repatriations of North Korean defectors
10. S. Korean Defense Minister promotes advanced shipbuilding in Australia
11. N. Korean border guard and smuggler arrested for using Chinese cell phone
12. North Korea's grain prices continue to rise in markets
13. N. Korean government demands students collect scrap paper for new textbooks
14. US warns of Russia-North Korea refined petroleum trade
15. Set your email servers to block N. Korean spies, US officials urge
16. NSA, FBI Alert on N. Korean Hackers Spoofing Emails from Trusted Sources
17. Putin Thanks North Korea for Its Missiles
18. Iran’s Attack on Israel Offers Kim Jong Un a Test Case of Western Defenses
1. Russia sent more than 165,000 barrels of refined petroleum to N. Korea in March: White House
Quid pro quo. Members of the axis of dictators/totalitarians unite!
Excerpts:
"In March alone, Russia shipped more than 165,000 barrels of refined petroleum (to the North)," Kirby said. "Given the close proximity of Russian and North Korean commercial ports, Russia could sustain these shipments indefinitely."
...
"The United States is going to continue to impose sanctions against all those working to facilitate arms and refined petroleum transfers between Russia and the DPRK," he said. DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
...
The disclosure about the Russian shipments came as the mandate of the expert panel ended Tuesday following Russia's veto late March of a UNSC resolution that would have extended the mandate in what had been an annual renewal.
Kirby called Moscow's veto a "calculated" move to hide its own violations of UNSC resolutions.
(3rd LD) Russia sent more than 165,000 barrels of refined petroleum to N. Korea in March: White House | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · May 3, 2024
(ATTN: UPDATES with more details in paras 2-3)
By Song Sang-ho
WASHINGTON, May 2 (Yonhap) -- Russia delivered more than 165,000 barrels of refined petroleum to North Korea in March alone, a White House official said Thursday, noting its shipments thus far have already exceeded Pyongyang's annual import cap mandated by the U.N. Security Council (UNSC).
National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby made the remarks as Washington is working in tandem with South Korea, Japan and other partners to roll out new sanctions this month against those aiding in transfers of weapons and refined petroleum between the North and Russia.
His revelations came amid concerns that the sanctions regime against the North could erode due to this week's expiration of the mandate of a U.N. expert panel monitoring sanctions compliance -- a termination caused by Russia's veto.
"In March alone, Russia shipped more than 165,000 barrels of refined petroleum (to the North)," Kirby said. "Given the close proximity of Russian and North Korean commercial ports, Russia could sustain these shipments indefinitely."
Under UNSC sanctions, the North is banned from importing more than 500,000 barrels of refined petroleum products per year.
National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby John Kirby speaks during a press briefing at the White House in Washington, D.C.,on Jan. 26, 2024, in this file photo released by Reuters. (Yonhap)
Kirby stressed that Washington will continue efforts to disrupt trade in weapons and oil between the North and Russia.
"The United States is going to continue to impose sanctions against all those working to facilitate arms and refined petroleum transfers between Russia and the DPRK," he said. DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
Commenting on this issue, Matthew Miller, the State Department spokesperson, said that the U.S. is currently working with its partners, including South Korea, Britain, Australia, the European Union, New Zealand and Japan, to announce new coordinated sanctions designations this month.
The disclosure about the Russian shipments came as the mandate of the expert panel ended Tuesday following Russia's veto late March of a UNSC resolution that would have extended the mandate in what had been an annual renewal.
Kirby called Moscow's veto a "calculated" move to hide its own violations of UNSC resolutions.
Through regular reports, the panel had laid bare various cases of sanction violations. Its latest report this year touched on arms trade between Moscow and Pyongyang, which Seoul, Washington and others berated as violations of multiple UNSC sanctions.
"By disbanding the panel of experts, Russia is also attempting to obscure its violations of binding Security Council resolutions," Kirby said.
With the expiration of the panel's mandate, South Korea, the U.S., Japan and other nations have been looking for alternative measures to help ensure sanctions compliance.
On Wednesday, 50 countries issued a joint statement, stressing the need to consider how to keep access to "objective" and "independent" analysis regarding the enforcement of anti-North Korea sanctions.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · May 3, 2024
2. S. Korean military shoots down unidentified balloon near western maritime border in March
Note the photo of the KA-1 light attack aircraft at the link. https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20240503003400315?section=nk/nk
A propaganda balloon?
S. Korean military shoots down unidentified balloon near western maritime border in March | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · May 3, 2024
SEOUL, May 3 (Yonhap) -- The South Korean military shot down an unidentified balloon over the Yellow Sea in March as it crossed the western maritime border, sources said Friday.
The Marine Corps stationed in Baengnyeong Island near the Northern Limit Line (NLL), a de facto inter-Korean maritime border, detected the unidentified flying object measuring up to 2 meters and drifting without a power device, according to the sources familiar with the issue.
A KA-1 light attack aircraft was deployed near the front-line island and shot it down as it kept crossing the NLL.
The military attempted to retrieve the object at sea but failed to salvage it, they noted.
Military officials speculate that the object may have flown from North Korea, though they do not rule out the possibility of it originating from China.
Spy balloons from China have been spotted in the United States and Taiwan in recent years.
A KA-1 light attack aircraft is seen in this photo provided by the Air Force. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
ejkim@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · May 3, 2024
3. Toy Story's animated character found at N. Korea's fashion show in suspected trademark violation
north Korea demonstrates the full spectrum of malign activities from nuclear weapons to copyright violations.
Toy Story's animated character found at N. Korea's fashion show in suspected trademark violation | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · May 3, 2024
SEOUL, May 3 (Yonhap) -- North Korea appears to have violated trademark rights as it displayed clothing with a famous animated character from Disney-Pixar's 2010 movie "Toy Story 3" at the latest fashion exhibition, photos carried by state media showed Friday.
Lots-o'-Huggin' Bear, the main antagonist of the film, also known as Lotso Bear, was found on children's clothes that were presented at the spring clothing exhibition held in Pyongyang on Monday, photos carried by the Korean Central News Agency showed.
There is little possibility that North Korea has formally clinched a deal on design copyrights to produce such clothing, given that the reclusive regime has a track record of violating trademark rights and copyrights.
Balloons pictured with South Korean animated characters from "Super Wings" were spotted in Pyongyang around the birthday of late former leader Kim Jong-il in February, according to footage aired by North Korea's state-run Korean Central Television.
North Korean counterfeit products pirating luxury brands, such as Chanel, Burberry and Dior, were also found to be on display at a department store in Pyongyang, as shown in a video filmed in 2022.
This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on April 30, 2024, shows Disney-Pixar's animation character Lots-o'-Huggin' Bear from "Toy Story 3" on children's clothes (front) displayed at the spring clothing exhibition held the previous day in Pyongyang. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
This file image, captured from footage of North Korea's state-run Korean Central Television on Feb. 17, 2024, shows balloons carrying South Korean animated characters from "Super Wings" found as people celebrate the birthday of late former leader Kim Jong-il. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · May 3, 2024
4. Germany has yet to decide whether to reopen embassy in Pyongyang: envoy
Could Ambassador Shaeffer return to Pyongyang for a third tour?
Germany has yet to decide whether to reopen embassy in Pyongyang: envoy | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · May 3, 2024
SEOUL, May 3 (Yonhap) -- German Ambassador to Seoul Georg Schmidt said Friday his country has yet to decide whether to reopen its embassy in North Korea following its withdrawal in early 2020 due to Pyongyang's COVID-19 border shutdown.
In February, a German diplomat in charge of East Asia affairs visited North Korea in the first known case that a Western diplomat has visited Pyongyang since the reclusive nation closed its border due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Schmidt said the delegation checked the technical conditions of the Germany embassy building and took a look at diplomats' entry process and living conditions such as medical services to brace for the possible reopening of the diplomatic mission.
"It is up to Berlin's political decision about when to reopen the embassy with what size or whether to reopen it. We've been always trying to communicate with North Korea even at the time of the German embassy closure," he told a group of reporters in Seoul.
Some European countries that established diplomatic relations with North Korea, such as Britain and Sweden, pulled out of Pyongyang in early 2020 due to the North's COVID-19 restrictions.
Since opening the border partially in August last year, North Korea has only permitted a few countries, such as China, Russia and Mongolia, to resume diplomatic activities in Pyongyang.
German Ambassador to South Korea Georg Schmidt speaks during an interview with Yonhap News Agency at the ambassador's official residence in Seoul on Nov. 21, 2023. (Yonhap)
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · May 3, 2024
5. N. Korea approves 1st post-pandemic entry of Chinese students
Does this include tuition payments for the regime? Is this part of regime fundraising? Who is providing the scholarships? The Chinese or north Korea governments? Do Chinese students have to participate in mobilization work details when they impress Korean students for regime projects?
N. Korea approves 1st post-pandemic entry of Chinese students | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · May 3, 2024
SEOUL, May 3 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has approved the entry of more than 80 Chinese students seeking to study in the North in the first such acceptance of overseas students after years of stringent border lockdowns aimed at fending off the pandemic.
Late Thursday, the Chinese Embassy in North Korea released a photo on its website of 41 government scholarship students who arrived in Pyongyang the previous day.
The embassy said the arrival of the students marked the "resumption of study abroad exchange programs between China and North Korea," adding that 45 self-funded Chinese students also entered the North recently.
North Korea began resuming exchanges with China, its longtime ally and largest economic benefactor, in a limited manner after partially opening its border in August last year after more than three years and six months of closure.
The North has also approved the entry of government delegations from China and Russia as well as group tourists from Russia since its partial border reopening.
This photo, taken from the website of the Chinese Embassy in North Korea, shows Chinese government scholarship students posing for a group photo after arriving in Pyongyang on May 2, 2024. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
mlee@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · May 3, 2024
6. Unification minister, senior German official discuss unification issues
For those who fear the economic parallels with Germany for unification I call your attention to this important paper from Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt that provides an alternative assessment.
The Economics of a Korean Unification: Thinking the Unthinkable?
https://www.aei.org/research-products/speech/the-economics-of-a-korean-unification-thinking-the-unthinkable/
Unification minister, senior German official discuss unification issues | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · May 3, 2024
SEOUL, May 3 (Yonhap) -- Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho on Friday met with a senior German official and discussed Berlin's unification experience and the possibility of a unified Korea, Seoul's unification ministry said.
Kim met with Carsten Schneider, the minister of state for East Germany and equivalent living conditions, at his office, as Seoul is working on drawing up a new unification vision amid North Korea's pledge not to seek unification with South Korea.
Kim asked for Berlin's cooperation and support for South Korea's "unwavering" commitment to pursuing a peaceful unification of the two Koreas based on liberal democracy, according to the unification ministry.
Schneider also voiced the need to strengthen solidarity between Seoul and Berlin over the issue and shared South Korea's unification vision, it added.
This photo, provided by the Ministry of Unification on May 3, 2024, shows Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho (R) meeting with Carsten Schneider, the German minister of state for East Germany and equivalent living conditions, in Seoul. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
The meeting came as North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has defined inter-Korean relations as those between "two countries hostile to each other" and vowed not to seek reconciliation and unification with South Korea.
Schneider was visiting South Korea to attend a meeting of the Korea-Germany Unification Advisory Committee held in the southeastern port city of Busan from Tuesday and Wednesday.
The two nations launched the unification advisory committee in 2011 in order to share Germany's unification experience and have held an annual meeting since then. Vice Unification Minister Moon Seoung-hyun and Schneider co-chair the committee.
Later in the day, Schneider told reporters that South Korea could seize an unexpected opportunity only when it does not give up the goal of unification.
"We did not know in the spring of 1989 that the Berlin Wall would collapse in November that year. If South Korea wants to catch such a chance (for unification), it should not lose the goal of unification while keeping close tabs on North Korean people's situations," he said.
This photo, taken May 3, 2024, shows Carsten Schneider, the German minister of state for East Germany and equivalent living conditions, speaking to reporters in Seoul. (Yonhap)
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · May 3, 2024
7. S. Korea’s potential participation in AUKUS Pillar 2 is discussed
S. Korea’s potential participation in AUKUS Pillar 2 is discussed
Posted May. 02, 2024 08:01,
Updated May. 02, 2024 08:01
https://www.donga.com/en/home/article/all/20240502/4917292/1
South Korea's potential participation in the second phase, or "Pillar 2," of AUKUS—a security agreement involving the U.S., the U.K., and Australia—was a key topic at the Republic of Korea-Australia 2+2 Foreign and Defense Ministers’ Meeting. AUKUS, led by the U.S., comprises two pillars: Pillar 1 supports Australia in acquiring a nuclear-powered submarine fleet. At the same time, Pillar 2 focuses on developing advanced capabilities, including hypersonic missile technology and cybersecurity. Last month, AUKUS announced Japan's entry into Pillar 2, marking the first expansion since its inception, and it is now considering including South Korea. The meeting explored the potential for South Korea to join AUKUS as a partner, indicating a likely expansion of the pact.
Following the 2+2 dialogue, at a joint press conference on Wednesday, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik expressed enthusiasm for South Korea's potential role in AUKUS Pillar 2, emphasizing that South Korea's defense technology could bolster Pillar 2 development and regional stability.
Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles praised South Korea's impressive technological prowess and highlighted existing strategic cooperation based on common values. He anticipated South Korea's participation in Pillar 2, noting that Japan's involvement had already advanced Pillar 2 development.
Despite AUKUS's principle of not expanding Pillar 1 to other nations, recent indicators suggest Japan may be the next addition. South Korea's government, viewing participation in Pillar 2 as enhancing regional security, is inclined to join, believing that the involvement will facilitate early access to advanced weaponry developed under Pillar 2. However, participation may take several months due to the need for consensus among member states and Chinese opposition to AUKUS expansion.
During the meeting, both sides agreed to halt North Korea's access to funds for its illicit nuclear and missile programs, aiming to curb illegal arms trade between North Korea and Russia. South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yeol highlighted expanded cooperation in economic, security, comprehensive, cyber, and maritime security realms. “Australia is committed to fostering a comprehensive strategic partnership with South Korea,” Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong also stressed.
8. ‘Why are we defending the rich country?’
I am sure the Koreans will recycle the Time Magazine interview many times between now and the November election.
We should keep in mind that we are not in Korea to simply "defend" Korea. We are there to support US interests which include deterring war because war will have global effects and have a severe impact on the global economy, the US economy, and the American people. We are not contributing to the defense of Korea solely out of the goodness of our hearts. It is in our calculated self interest.
‘Why are we defending the rich country?’
Posted May. 02, 2024 08:00,
Updated May. 02, 2024 08:00
https://www.donga.com/en/List/article/all/20240502/4917217/1
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has hinted that he may withdraw U.S. troops from South Korea if the country does not pay more to support the U.S. troops stationed there. “I want South Korea to treat us properly,” Trump said when asked if he would withdraw troops from South Korea. “We have 40,000 troops (actually, 28,500), and in a somewhat precarious position. It doesn't make sense, why would we defend somebody. They have become a very wealthy country.”
Trump's comments are not new. During his first term, Trump used cuts to the U.S. military as leverage to press Seoul for a five-fold increase in defense spending. Due to such excessive demand, the two nations could not finalize the deal in time, leading to a year-and-a-half-long lapse in the agreement, which was only resolved after the Joe Biden administration took office. The two nation's early start of negotiations this month was also driven by concerns about the ‘Trump risk.’
However, even if South Korea and the U.S. reach an agreement promptly, a second Trump administration will likely demand renegotiation. They may even try to include the costs of joint military exercises and deployment of strategic assets in the bill. Trump's key supporters and aides have advocated for reductions or a change in the role of the U.S. military, saying, “It's time to have an honest conversation about whether we need 28,500 troops in South Korea” (former acting Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller) and “Instead of using the U.S. military as a deterrent to China, we need to consider nuclearizing South Korea” (former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby). These potential changes could significantly impact South Korea's defense capabilities and alliances.
Trump's perception of alliances as transactional relationships is not limited to South Korea. He recently made a stir when he said that European countries in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) that fail to meet their 2 percent of gross domestic product defense spending commitments would be at the disposal of Russia. “If they don't pay, they're on their own (for defense),” Trump said again in the latest interview.
Trump's chances of winning the presidency six months from now are still 50/50. However, many U.S. allies in Europe and elsewhere are bolstering their own defenses and preparing for a ‘Trump risk’ that could be even more ferocious. In particular, if direct trade between North Korea and the United States is attempted again in the second Trump term, South Korea’s national security may become a bargaining chip. This underscores the crucial need for South Korea to continue efforts to strengthen its self-defense capabilities and become an indispensable ally that is not swayed by any variables.
9. Editorial: S. Korea must speak out against China’s forced repatriations of North Korean defectors
We all need to speak out on Chinese complicity in north Korean human rights abuses. We must demand that China treat these escapees from north Korea as refugees and allow them safe passage.
Editorial: S. Korea must speak out against China’s forced repatriations of North Korean defectors
https://www.chosun.com/english/opinion-en/2024/05/03/ZAUIOLBL7BG2FBBETH5IMMK6JU/
By The Chosunilbo
Published 2024.05.03. 08:34
Picketing against the Chinese forced repatriation of North Korean defectors (Aug. 7. 2023)/News1
Recent reports indicate that the Chinese government has resumed the repatriation of North Korean escapees. As few as 50 to 60 and as many as 100 to 200 of them have reportedly been sent to North Korea. The South Korean National Intelligence Service (NIS) acknowledged the possibility of the reports, saying, “We have been tracking the possibility of the Chinese authorities forcibly repatriating additional North Korean defectors.” This follows the previous repatriation right after the Hangzhou Asian game in October last year, which involved 500 to 600 of the over 2,000 North Koreans detained during the three-year COVID-19 lockdown. China seems to have resumed the repatriation of North Korean defectors after a brief hiatus.
The South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not publicly responded to China about this issue, only emphasizing its stance that under no circumstances should North Koreans living abroad be forcibly repatriated against their free will. Seoul finds itself in a challenging position as China resumes repatriating North Koreans while the government seeks Beijing’s participation in upcoming trilateral talks involving South Korea, China, and Japan. Even so, North Korean defectors are constitutionally South Korean citizens whose safety is a significant matter to the government. How will China interpret this silence?
North Koreans are international refugees fleeing starvation. For them, North Korea is a ticket to hell. They are tortured, beaten, and often killed. China is a signatory to the Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees and the Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment, yet it continues to send them back. “It is sending people to their deaths. Its claim of being a “civilized country” is merely a facade, as its true nature is uncivilized. A backward state usually does not stop its barbaric behavior when the other party remains silent because it lacks the capacity for self-reflection. Indeed, it’s crucial to continue denouncing China’s inhumane treatment of North Korean defectors and other human rights violations. Despite being a communist dictatorship, China’s status as a permanent member of the UN Security Council and its extensive trade relations necessitates a degree of accountability and concern for its reputation on the global stage.
That’s why the South Korean government recommended that China provide adequate protection for North Korean defectors at the UN Human Rights Council at the beginning of this year. It was the first time Seoul spoke up, which marked a significant change from its previous “quiet diplomacy” strategy. In February, the South Korean foreign minister requested cooperation from the Chinese foreign minister to enable North Korean defectors to select their destinations freely, without the threat of forced repatriation. Despite this appeal, China’s response has persisted in repatriating defectors. Given this situation, it is imperative not to remain complacent or silent.
This year’s 75th anniversary of diplomatic ties between North Korea and China may be influencing China’s decision to repatriate North Korean defectors, potentially as a gesture of giving a “present” to Kim Jong-un. If so, the rest of the North Koreans could be sent back to Pyongyang one by one. There are reports of as few as a few hundred and as many as 1,000 North Korean refugees remaining in China. We cannot remain silent in the face of the two countries’ injustice deeds.
10. S. Korean Defense Minister promotes advanced shipbuilding in Australia
A partner in the Arsenal of Democracy.
S. Korean Defense Minister promotes advanced shipbuilding in Australia
https://www.chosun.com/english/national-en/2024/05/03/PWQTWWBNDVGORHEKKH3MELMMSI/
By Yang Ji-ho,
Kim Seo-young
Published 2024.05.03. 15:33
South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik (right) presents a Turtle Ship (Geobukseon) model souvenir to Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defense Richard Marles during his visit to Australia on April 30. /Courtesy of the Ministry of Defense
South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik gifted a Turtle Ship (Geobukseon) model to Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defense Richard Marles on April 30 during his visit to Australia for a 2+2 foreign and defense ministerial meeting. Shin highlighted the long history and excellence of Korean shipbuilding technology, saying, “The Turtle Ship, a revolutionary warship created by Korea’s independent technology, has made a significant mark in the history of naval warfare,” thus emphasizing the exceptional shipbuilding skills Korea has possessed since ancient times.
According to the Ministry of Defense, Shin showcased the shipbuilding capabilities of Korean shipyards to his Australian counterpart and other senior officials from the Australian Defense Department and the fleet command through bilateral defense ministerial talks, the 2+2 meeting, and a visit to the Australian fleet command on May 2.
Shin said, “Korean frigates uniquely feature a hybrid (electric+diesel) engine and are equipped with AESA radar, which provides outstanding real-time target acquisition capabilities,” adding, “Korean defense companies have experience exporting the same type of vessels to the Philippines and Thailand, and they can meet Australia’s delivery deadline of 2029.” He also emphasized that Korean companies are proactive in technology transfers and capable of building ships locally in Australia.
The Defense Minister emphasized strengthening defense cooperation between the two countries after the 2+2 meeting on May 1. “Both nations have agreed to continue developing mutually beneficial defense cooperation,” he said. “Australia selected a Korean company for a $2.5 billion next-generation infantry fighting vehicle project in December 2023, following the self-propelled artillery project in 2021, and we are very pleased with this decision.”
This article was originally published on May 2, 2024.
11. N. Korean border guard and smuggler arrested for using Chinese cell phone
Corruption and collaboration against the regime.
N. Korean border guard and smuggler arrested for using Chinese cell phone - Daily NK English
Recently, the regime appears to be relaxing punishments for simply consuming foreign media, while harsh punishments are still meted out for distribution, a source told Daily NK
By Lee Sang Yong - May 3, 2024
dailynk.com · by Lee Sang Yong · May 3, 2024
North Korean border guard. (Courtesy of Professor Kang Dong Wan, Dong-a University)
In mid-April, an inspection team from the central government arrested a border guard and smuggler on suspicion of using Chinese cell phones to communicate with the outside world, Daily NK has learned.
On Apr. 30, a source in Yanggang Province told Daily NK that “a soldier in his early 20s in a border patrol unit and a smuggler in her early 50s were suddenly arrested by the provincial branch of the Ministry of State of Security in Kimjongsuk County on Apr. 17. The two were arrested by members of the central government’s non-socialist and anti-socialist unified command’s border region emergency inspection team, so it’s likely they’ll be harshly punished.”
According to the source, the pair had been secretly using a Chinese cell phone to communicate with the outside world while conducting operations. The two people began smuggling operations as soon as they sensed pandemic border controls relaxing and relations with China improving.
The pair paid off members of the provincial office of the Ministry of State Security, allowing them to operate comfortably for a time. However, they were ultimately caught during a surprise inspection when an emergency inspection team sent from Pyongyang picked up their signal using cars outfitted with signal detection gear and other electric wave detection equipment.
“After re-opening the borders, [the regime] has been consistently attacking use of Chinese cell phones, but the issue persisted, leading Kim Yo Jong to directly issue an order to root out collaboration between the military and civilians along the border, smuggling and illegal border crossings, and defections,” the source said. “[The inspection team] warned that they would not be looking the other way [for anyone] this time around, so the investigation into the pair is likely to proceed quickly and result in harsh punishments.”
The government views people who use Chinese cell phones as being involved in the consumption and distribution of foreign media since the phones are considered a major channel for bringing outside media into the country. The “Anti-Reactionary Thought Law” adopted in December 2020 stipulates heavy punishments for consuming and distributing foreign media, so the pair are likely to face steep legal penalties for using Chinese cell phones in their smuggling activities.
That being said, Daily NK’s source said that recently, the regime appears to be relaxing punishments for simply consuming foreign media. The “Anti-Reactionary Thought Law” helped to create an atmosphere of fear among North Koreans, which has led to speculation that the government could be pivoting toward a more conciliatory approach to consumers of foreign media.
“In the past, repeat offenders were exiled without exception, but now they say [exile] is reserved for people who have been caught at least three times. Overall, the harshness of punishment [for viewing foreign media] appears to have gone down quite a lot,” the source explained.
“However, in cases in which the offender has a degree of public influence, the viciousness of public hearings and shamings for watching foreign videos has increased [to make an example of these individuals]. If teachers are caught, they are criticized at ideological struggle sessions or sometimes forced to do uncompensated labor, but they keep their positions.
“Surprise inspections by the central government authorities are carried out once or twice a quarter in the China-North Korea border area. It’s hard to know where or when the inspections take place, so there’s a challenge in even knowing how many people have been caught in these inspections.”
Translated by Rose Adams. Edited by Robert Lauler.
Daily NK works with a network of sources living in North Korea, China, and elsewhere. Their identities remain anonymous for security reasons. For more information about Daily NK’s network of reporting partners and information-gathering activities, please visit our FAQ page here.
Please send any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
Read in Korean
dailynk.com · by Lee Sang Yong · May 3, 2024
12. North Korea's grain prices continue to rise in markets
When are we going to see college campuses erupt in protest to support the starving people in north Korea? (note my sarcasm).
North Korea's grain prices continue to rise in markets - Daily NK English
“Rice is hard to come by at markets because supplies are running low. The number of starving families is rising rapidly because there is little food to be had...," a source in Chagang Province reported
By Seulkee Jang - May 3, 2024
dailynk.com · by Seulkee Jang · May 3, 2024
FILE PHOTO: A picture of a streetside market in Hoeryong taken in 2019. (Daily NK)
The price of cereals at North Korean marketplaces continues to rise, leading some to say the food shortage in the country is even more serious during the pandemic.
According to Daily NK’s regular survey of North Korean market prices, one kilogram of rice was trading for KPW 6,300 at a market in Hyesan, Yanggang Province, on Apr. 28.
That was 3.28% higher than the price of rice at a market in the same city during the previous survey, on Mar. 14 (KPW 6,100). The last time the price of rice at a Hyesan market reached KPW 6,300 was seven months ago, in September 2023.
According to the survey, the price of rice has risen by a similar amount at markets in other regions, too. As of Apr. 28, a kilogram of rice was trading for KPW 5,500 at a market in Pyongyang and for KPW 5,600 at a market in Sinuiju, North Pyongan Province. The prices were up 2.8% and 3.7%, respectively, from two weeks before.
The same survey found that the market price of corn rose even faster than rice.
A kilogram of corn at a market in Hyesan was trading for KPW 3,500 at a market in Hyesan on Apr. 28, marking the highest level so far this year. Just as with rice, that was the first time corn had reached that price point since September 2023.
The price of corn is also continuing to rise at markets in Pyongyang and Sinuiju, where a kilogram of corn sold for KPW 3,100 and KPW 3,140 on Apr. 28, up 6.9% and 7.9%, respectively, from two weeks before.
Survey records show that the current price of grains at North Korean markets is even higher than during the four springs from 2020 to 2023, while the country’s border was closed because of the pandemic.
During that time period, 2023 was the year when the market price of rice was highest at the end of April. The average market price of rice at the three markets (Pyongyang, Sinuiju and Hyesan) as of Apr. 30, 2023, was KPW 5,766 per kilogram, with the average price of corn at KPW 2,933 per kilogram.
The market price of grains was thought to have been so high in 2023 because of a bad harvest in the fall of 2022, combined with tighter restrictions on imports during the pandemic.
This spring, the North Korean authorities bragged about a “bumper crop” and a “rare harvest” last fall and also increased imports of grains at the end of the year, leading to expectations that market prices of grain would hold steady. Contrary to those expectations, however, grain prices in the spring have been even higher than during the pandemic-related closure of the national border.
The average price of rice at markets in Pyongyang, Sinuiju and Hyesan is currently KPW 5,800, while the average price of corn is KPW 3,246, representing a 0.59% and 10.7% year-over-year increase, respectively.
That is leading some in North Korea to remark that food is even scarcer now than during the border closure.
“Rice is hard to come by at markets because supplies are running low. The number of starving families is rising rapidly because there is little food to be had, even at the market,” said a Daily NK source in Chagang Province, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The same survey found that the price of fuel at North Korean markets has soared over the past two weeks.
The price of a kilogram of gasoline at a market in Pyongyang on Apr. 28 was KPW 14,200, representing an increase of 23.48% compared to the survey two weeks before. The price of diesel had gone up, too, selling for KPW 13,000 per kilogram at a market in Pyongyang on Apr. 28, a full 44.44% higher than the price two weeks earlier.
The sharp increase in the prices of gasoline and diesel in North Korea is due to several factors, including a decrease in imports because of unfavorable exchange rates, the authorities’ crackdown on the private sale of fuel and a sharp rise in demand leading up to the farming season.
Translated by David Carruth. Edited by Robert Lauler.
Daily NK works with a network of sources living in North Korea, China, and elsewhere. Their identities remain anonymous for security reasons. For more information about Daily NK’s network of reporting partners and information-gathering activities, please visit our FAQ page here.
Please send any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
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dailynk.com · by Seulkee Jang · May 3, 2024
13. N. Korean government demands students collect scrap paper for new textbooks
An indicator of how bankrupt the regime is.
N. Korean government demands students collect scrap paper for new textbooks - Daily NK English
Despite the political risk, some families are meeting their scrap paper quota by tearing out pages from books about the North Korean leadership
By Jong So Yong - May 3, 2024
dailynk.com · by Jong So Yong · May 3, 2024
North Korea’s government has ordered students to collect scrap paper for use in printing new textbooks for a new curriculum that will soon be adopted by high schools, Daily NK has learned.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, a source in Yanggang Province told Daily NK on Apr. 26 that the North Korean government issued instructions in mid-April about revising the curriculum to allow high school students to choose which courses they want to take in the areas of social studies and science.
While the new curriculum is currently being implemented on a trial basis at a limited number of schools in each region, the authorities have said they plan to roll it out around the country and are stressing the need to publish new textbooks.
As a result, people’s committees at provinces, cities, and counties around the country have been given submission quotas for high-quality and low-quality scrap paper.
High-quality scrap paper refers to white printer paper and intact newspapers and books, while low-quality scrap paper refers to tissue paper and other flimsy kinds of paper. The authorities want both kinds of paper submitted so they can accelerate printing of textbooks for the new curriculum.
In Pungso County, Yanggang Province, urgent assignments to submit scrap paper have been given not only to elementary schools, middle schools and high schools but also inminban (neighborhood watch units).
Not an easy task to accomplish
But people are outraged about the sudden order to hand over scrap paper. The main reason is that high-quality scrap paper is difficult to find.
“The textbooks the government has developed for key courses are printed in the province on very cheap paper that generally counts as low-quality scrap. People aren’t sure how to submit high-quality scrap paper when there’s little to be found,” the source said.
Currently, each student in Pungso County is supposed to submit five kilograms of high-quality scrap paper, which many people complain is an unreasonable amount.
According to the source, the parents who are left with the task of handling their children’s scrap paper quotas are criticizing the government’s demands.
“Considering how hard it is to scrape together just one kilogram of high-quality scrap paper, it seems impossible to come up with five kilograms,” one parent said.
“They ought to give us realistic quotas, but they just keep trying to squeeze us dry,” another remarked.
Under these circumstances, the source said, some families are meeting their high-quality scrap quota by tearing out pages from books by and about the North Korean leadership, despite the political risk of damaging books that are supposed to be lovingly maintained in North Korea.
Thanks to the sudden demand for scrap paper, vendors who sell scrap in the markets or on the streets are doing brisk business.
“Quick-thinking vendors in Pungso County are putting up signs for high-quality scrap paper in the streets and markets and then buying the paper on the cheap and selling it for a premium. The new textbook project is causing various kinds of trouble for the North Korean public,” the source said.
Translated by David Carruth. Edited by Robert Lauler.
Daily NK works with a network of sources living in North Korea, China, and elsewhere. Their identities remain anonymous for security reasons. For more information about Daily NK’s network of reporting partners and information-gathering activities, please visit our FAQ page here.
Please send any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
Read in Korean
dailynk.com · by Jong So Yong · May 3, 2024
14. US warns of Russia-North Korea refined petroleum trade
US warns of Russia-North Korea refined petroleum trade
Russia sent over 165,000 barrels of refined petroleum to North Korea in March alone, say US officials.
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/russia-nkorea-petrol-05022024232908.html
By Taejun Kang for RFA
2024.05.02
Taipei, Taiwan
Russian and North Korean flags fly at the Vostochny Сosmodrome, the venue of the meeting between Russia's President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un, in the far eastern Amur region, Russia, Sept. 13, 2023.
Sputnik/Artem Geodakyan/Pool via Reuters
Russia delivered more than 165,000 barrels of refined petroleum to North Korea in March alone, U.S. officials said, noting the U.S is working with South Korea, Japan and other partners to roll out new sanctions this month against those aiding it.
“In March alone, Russia shipped more than 165,000 barrels of refined petroleum (to the North),” said the U.S. National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby on Thursday. “Given the close proximity of Russian and North Korean commercial ports, Russia could sustain these shipments indefinitely.”
Under U.N. Security Council (UNSC) sanctions, Pyongyang is banned from importing more than 500,000 barrels of refined petroleum products per year.
“The United States is going to continue to impose sanctions against all those working to facilitate arms and refined petroleum transfers between Russia and the DPRK,” Kirby added. DPRK, or the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, is North Korea’s official name.
Separately, Matthew Miller, the U.S. State Department spokesperson, said that Washington was working with its partners, including South Korea, Britain, Australia, the European Union, New Zealand and Japan, to announce new coordinated sanctions designations this month.
His remarks came after U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield said on Wednesday that 50 U.N. members, including the United States, Japan, and South Korea, were considering alternatives to ensure continued “objective and independent” monitoring of sanctions on North Korea after the recent dissolution of a panel investigating suspected violations.
The U.N. panel of experts, tasked with investigating violations of sanctions related to North Korea’s prohibited nuclear and ballistic missile programs, was officially dissolved on Tuesday. This followed the U.N. Security Council’s failure to renew the panel’s mandate on March 28 due to a veto by permanent council member Russia.
Russia’s veto at the U.N. Security Council came amid accusations by the U.S. and South Korea that North Korea was providing weapons for Russia's war in Ukraine. Both Russia and North Korea deny that.
But the expert panel, in a report released in March, provided photographic evidence of Russia’s sanction-violating arms transactions with North Korea and confirmed investigations into these transfers.
Cybersecurity advisory
The U.S. also issued a cybersecurity advisory against a North Korea-linked hacking group called Kimsuki on Thursday, accusing it of using malicious emails to U.S. government officials and experts to gather information about U.S. policy toward the North.
Kimsuki seeks to gather information about North Korea, including geopolitical events and foreign policy strategies, by hacking into the emails, documents, and devices of U.S. government officials, think tanker members, and journalists, according to the advisory released by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the State Department and the National Security Agency.
Kimsuki, affiliated with North Korea’s General Reconnaissance Department, was added to the U.S. Treasury Department’s sanctions list in December last year.
A State Department official explained that North Korea has been cut off from the outside world for the past four years due to COVID-19 and had refused to engage in diplomatic dialogue, suggesting that the government may be resorting to hacking because it is not using the usual means to gather information about other countries.
Edited by Mike Firn.
15. Set your email servers to block N. Korean spies, US officials urge
Kim's all purpose sword at work.
Excerpts:
The Treasury Department in November sanctioned eight North Korean agents that enabled revenue generation for the nation’s nuclear missile activities, as well as Kimsuky, on grounds that the group carried out intelligence-gathering activities in support of Pyongyang’s national interests.
The nation’s cyber forces have matured and will “continue its ongoing cyber campaign, particularly cryptocurrency heists; seek a broad variety of approaches to launder and cash out stolen cryptocurrency; and maintain a program of IT workers serving abroad to earn additional funds,” a February U.S. intelligence assessment says.
Set your email servers to block N. Korean spies, US officials urge
The Kimsuky hacking group has been penetrating systems that neglect to ward off a "Reply-to" exploit, NSA and FBI say.
defenseone.com · by David DiMolfetta
ilkaydede/getty images
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Threats
The Kimsuky hacking group has been penetrating systems that neglect to ward off a "Reply-to" exploit, NSA and FBI say.
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May 2, 2024 06:00 PM ET
By David DiMolfetta
Cybersecurity Reporter, Nextgov/FCW
May 2, 2024 06:00 PM ET
A North Korean hacking collective is exploiting poorly configured email servers to attack academic institutions, think tanks, journalists, and nonprofit organizations, U.S. agencies warned Thursday.
The group, known as Kimsuky, is using phishing to surreptitiously gain access to organizations’ email domains and masquerade as legitimate users, according to an advisory issued by the State Department, FBI and NSA.
Kimsuky is a cybercrime unit believed to be housed in the DPRK’s military intelligence directorate, known as the Reconnaissance General Bureau, or RGB. It has taken on other names from private-sector cybersecurity researchers, including Emerald Sleet, APT43, and Velvet Chollima.
The phishing messages are sent as malicious emails. Once communication is established between a legitimate user and the disguised hacker, the latter sends follow-up replies containing malign links and attachments that can siphon recipients’ sensitive data.
In one instance, a Kimsuky operative posed as a journalist seeking comment on geopolitical issues related to North Korea. Because of improper configuration, the bogus reporter was able to change the “Reply-to” email address so that the targeted account’s responses would be sent to a North Korean-controlled account.
The exploit is rooted in the Domain-based Message Authentication, Reporting and Conformance, or DMARC, a protocol that gives system administrators the ability to control unauthorized use of email domains to prevent spoofing and phishing attempts.
Certain signs can help targeted orgs spot the sham emails, including typos, awkward English-speaking sentence structure and repeated email text found in previous engagement with other victims, the advisory says. But it also urges institutions to change their DMARC policies, like re-coding configurations to confine messages that don’t match account domains or label them as spam.
North Korea has deployed shadow operatives across the globe who pose as legitimate IT workers, planting themselves into companies to carry out long-haul schemes that fund Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program. They’ve been able to finance the programs through covert cryptocurrency transactions, and the schemes have paid for some 50% of the DPRK’s missile projects, according to public U.S. assessments.
The Kimsuky entity, in particular, focuses on providing “stolen data and valuable geopolitical insight to the North Korean regime by compromising policy analysts and other experts,” the readout says.
The intelligence-gathering collective has been active since at least 2012, cyber officials have previously stated.
The Treasury Department in November sanctioned eight North Korean agents that enabled revenue generation for the nation’s nuclear missile activities, as well as Kimsuky, on grounds that the group carried out intelligence-gathering activities in support of Pyongyang’s national interests.
The nation’s cyber forces have matured and will “continue its ongoing cyber campaign, particularly cryptocurrency heists; seek a broad variety of approaches to launder and cash out stolen cryptocurrency; and maintain a program of IT workers serving abroad to earn additional funds,” a February U.S. intelligence assessment says.
16. NSA, FBI Alert on N. Korean Hackers Spoofing Emails from Trusted Sources
More details on Kim's all purpose sword.
NSA, FBI Alert on N. Korean Hackers Spoofing Emails from Trusted Sources
thehackernews.com
The U.S. government on Thursday published a new cybersecurity advisory warning of North Korean threat actors' attempts to send emails in a manner that makes them appear like they are from legitimate and trusted parties.
The joint bulletin was published by the National Security Agency (NSA), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the Department of State.
"The DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] leverages these spear-phishing campaigns to collect intelligence on geopolitical events, adversary foreign policy strategies, and any information affecting DPRK interests by gaining illicit access to targets' private documents, research, and communications," NSA said.
The technique specifically concerns exploiting improperly configured DNS Domain-based Message Authentication, Reporting, and Conformance (DMARC) record policies to conceal social engineering attempts. In doing so, the threat actors can send spoofed emails as if they are from a legitimate domain's email server.
The abuse of weak DMARC policies has been attributed to a North Korean activity cluster tracked by the cybersecurity community under the name Kimsuky (aka APT43, Black Banshee, Emerald Sleet, Springtail, TA427, and Velvet Chollima), which is a sister collective to the Lazarus Group and is affiliated with the Reconnaissance General Bureau (RGB).
Proofpoint, in a report published last month, said that Kimsuky began to incorporate this method in December 2023 as part of broader efforts to target foreign policy experts for their opinions on topics related to nuclear disarmament, U.S.-South Korea policies, and sanctions.
Describing the adversary as a "savvy social engineering expert," the enterprise security firm said the hacking group is known to engage its targets for extended periods of time through a series of benign conversations to build trust with targets using various aliases that impersonate DPRK subject matter experts in thinks tanks, academia, journalism, and independent research.
"Targets are often requested to share their thoughts on these topics via email or a formal research paper or article," Proofpoint researchers Greg Lesnewich and Crista Giering said.
"Malware or credential harvesting are never directly sent to the targets without an exchange of multiple messages, and [...] rarely utilized by the threat actor. It is possible that TA427 can fulfill its intelligence requirements by directly asking targets for their opinions or analysis rather than from an infection."
The company also noted that many of the entities that TA427 has spoofed either did not enable or enforce DMARC policies, thus allowing such email messages to get around security checks and ensure delivery even if those checks fail.
Furthermore, Kimsuky has been observed using "free email addresses spoofing the same persona in the reply-to field to convince the target that they are engaging with legitimate personnel."
In one email highlighted by the U.S. government, the threat actor posed as a legitimate journalist seeking an interview from an unnamed expert to discuss North Korea's nuclear armament plans, but openly noted that their email account would be blocked temporarily and urged the recipient to respond to them on their personal email, which was a fake account mimicking the journalist.
This indicates that the phishing message was originally sent from the journalist's compromised account, thus increasing the chances that the victim would reply to the alternative fake account.
Organizations are recommended to update their DMARC policies to instruct their email servers to treat email messages that fail the checks as suspicious or spam (i.e., quarantine or reject) and receive aggregate feedback reports by setting up an email address in the DMARC record.
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thehackernews.com
17. Putin Thanks North Korea for Its Missiles
Putin Thanks North Korea for Its Missiles
Russia rewards Kim Jong Un by vetoing a U.N. panel that monitors nuclear-weapons sanctions.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-sanctions-united-nations-panel-russia-china-ukraine-fa9d2298?mod=latest_headlines
By The Editorial Board
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May 2, 2024 5:45 pm ET
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday PHOTO: GAVRIIL GRIGOROV/ZUMA PRESS
Some Republicans may not see how the war in Ukraine affects interests far beyond that country’s borders. But Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping certainly do.
On Tuesday the United Nations panel to monitor North Korean sanctions expired. It did so because in March Russia vetoed a Security Council resolution to extend its mandate. Russia was the only nation on the 15-member Security Council to oppose the extension—though China pointedly abstained.
The panel was created in 2009 to ensure that sanctions imposed on Pyongyang because of its nuclear program are monitored and enforced. In a joint statement after Russia’s veto, the U.S., France, the U.K., Japan and South Korea accused Russia of killing the panel because Mr. Putin worries it might report “Moscow’s own violations of Security Council resolutions.”
The world had a fresh reminder this week, when the U.N. sanctions monitor said a missile recovered from the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv was a North Korean Hwasong-11 ballistic missile. This is on top of 10,000 containers of military munitions the Kim Jong Un regime has delivered in support of Russia’s war effort. The fear is that Moscow may also be helping Pyongyang gain access to the international banking system—another end run around international sanctions.
Though the sanctions remain, the panel’s demise makes violations harder to monitor and enforce. America’s most determined enemies—Russia, China, North Korea and Iran—are working together because they know that a defeat for Ukraine helps strengthen their hand against the West. Mr. Putin’s payoff to Mr. Kim is the first of more to come.
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In his final appearance before the House Armed Services Committee on March 20, 2024, Navy Admiral John Aquilino repeatedly referenced the need to 'speed up' the U.S. defense effort in the Indo-Pacific, with China's military expanding on a 'scale not seen since WWII,' and growing cooperation between China, Russia and Iran setting up a new 'axis of evil.' Images: AP/Zuma Press
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Appeared in the May 3, 2024, print edition as 'Putin Thanks Pyongyang'.
18. Iran’s Attack on Israel Offers Kim Jong Un a Test Case of Western Defenses
My comments below. I hope the training and education I received from air power experts passes muster.
Iran’s Attack on Israel Offers Kim Jong Un a Test Case of Western Defenses
As Iran and North Korea draw closer, Pyongyang could learn from Tehran’s attack on Israel
https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/north-korea-kim-jong-un-iran-attack-lessons-75040609?st=px3q2t9puq7ktlo&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
By Dasl Yoon
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and Timothy W. Martin
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Updated May 3, 2024 12:04 am ET
North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un at an army training exercise in March. PHOTO: KCNA/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
SEOUL—The Iranian assault on Israel last month is likely to have drawn the keen interest of one world leader in particular: North Korea’s Kim Jong Un.
The attack—and the overwhelming success of Israel and its allies, including the U.S., to repel it—offers Kim a real-world test case of a clash with Western defenses.
It adds to North Korea’s understanding of how its munitions might perform should it attack Japan or South Korea, two countries whose defenses are—like Israel—increasingly integrated with the U.S. And it comes as North Korea and Iran draw closer, raising concerns in the West that the two could eventually cooperate militarily.
Even before Iran’s attack on Israel, North Korea was watching the performance of its own munitions in Ukraine, where Russia is using North Korean arms against weapons the U.S. and its European allies have supplied to Kyiv.
Explosions, Sirens Heard in West Bank and Jordan After Iran Attacks
Explosions, Sirens Heard in West Bank and Jordan After Iran Attacks
Play video: Explosions, Sirens Heard in West Bank and Jordan After Iran Attacks
Dozens of drones and the vast majority of missiles fired by Iran were intercepted by Israeli, American and other allied forces before they reached Israel. Photo: Ronen Zvulun/Reuters
To be sure, there are important differences. Iran’s attack on Israel came with ample forewarning, with the weapons in flight for hours as they traveled more than 1,000 miles. Kim is unlikely to give such advance notice for a potential strike of South Korea or Japan—one that could arrive in mere minutes, security experts say.
Nuclear-equipped North Korea ranks as one of the world’s most volatile military threats. In recent years, Pyongyang has carried out weapons tests with impunity, including an April 22 exercise that Kim oversaw and that state media claimed was the country’s first simulated nuclear counterattack.
The lessons Tehran gleaned from its own strike on Israel, as well as Israel’s small-scale retaliation against Iran, are likely to prove instructive to Kim, as well as to China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, said Cho Sang-keun, a professor at South Korea’s Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, who researches military technology.
Drones or missiles in the skies over northern Israel during Iran’s attack in April. The assault came with ample forewarning. PHOTO: ATEF SAFADI/EPA/SHUTTERSTOCK
Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, which have drawn closer since the Ukraine war started and find common cause in their antagonism to the West, form something of an “authoritarian value chain,” Cho added.
“With similar values, these authoritarian countries can trade know-how on weapons production or technology,” Cho said.
Pyongyang-Tehran ties
North Korea recently sent a high-level delegation to Iran led by Yun Jong Ho, who heads the country’s external economic relations and visited Russia in March. State media didn’t offer details on the nature of the trip. But U.S. and South Korean officials have recently expressed concern about potential military cooperation between Iran and North Korea. The delegation, which returned to Pyongyang on Thursday, attended a trade show and met with state officials, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman said earlier this week, dismissing speculation of bilateral military cooperation as biased and baseless.
Russia’s Minister of Natural Resources Alexander Kozlov, left, with Yun Jong Ho, center, the head of North Korea’s external economic relations, in Moscow in March. PHOTO: ALEXANDER RYUMIN/TASS/ZUMA PRESS
Tehran and Pyongyang have a history of arms deals dating back to the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. Iran’s Shahab-3 ballistic missiles appear to have been developed based on North Korea’s Rodong designs, according to a 2019 assessment by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency.
South Korea’s spy agency said it would look for commonalities between Iran’s drones and missiles used against Israel. There is little evidence that Pyongyang and Tehran have worked closely in recent years. But the potential exists for the two to join forces on military technology, said Tianran Xu, an analyst for the Open Nuclear Network, a research group based in Vienna.
Iran used a mix of ballistic and cruise missiles along with explosive drones to attack Israel in April, similar to Russian attacks on Ukraine. Much of the incoming fire was detected by early warning radars then intercepted by defense systems, along with help from the U.S., U.K. and other allies. Israel itself has several layers of air-defense systems including the midrange David’s Sling, designed to intercept missiles from around 62 miles to 124 miles away, and the long-range Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 systems that can shoot down missiles outside the earth’s atmosphere.
A ballistic missile near Arad, Israel, following Iran’s missile-and-drone attack on the country in April. PHOTO: AMIR COHEN/REUTERS
But North Korea would pose a greater threat, in part because South Korea and Japan are much larger territories to defend, said Derek Grossman, a former Pentagon official who worked on Indo-Pacific security issues.
Given its overwhelming success, “the Israel case is really the exception to the rule,” said Grossman, who is now a senior defense analyst at Rand Corp., a think tank based in Santa Monica, Calif. “Shooting down a bullet with another bullet is extremely difficult to do.”
A takeaway for Kim might be to focus a first wave of missiles or drones on targeting South Korean, Japanese and U.S. missile defenses, said David Maxwell, a former U.S. Army Special Forces colonel who served in Japan and South Korea. Iran didn’t appear to attempt this or was unsuccessful in doing so against Israel. By contrast, Israel’s attack in retaliation for the Iranian barrage took out radar systems defending the main target, an Iranian air base.
“A major principle for any air attack is the suppression of enemy air defenses,” Maxwell said.
Vulnerabilities in Seoul and Tokyo
The lessons from the Iranian attack on Israel could be especially valuable to North Korea as both Pyongyang and its rivals build up their militaries to prepare for an eventual conflict.
Kim has pushed Pyongyang to develop hypersonic technology and short-range missiles that can confuse radars by changing direction midflight. More of North Korea’s newest missiles rely on solid, rather than liquid fuel, allowing for a potentially faster deployment. Pyongyang is believed to have hidden weapons inside caves and mountains, and has showcased an ability to fire missiles from railroad cars.
A North Korean military test in early April. Missiles sent by Pyongyang could arrive in South Korea or Japan within minutes. PHOTO: KIM JAE-HWAN/SOPA IMAGES/ZUMA PRESS
In response, South Korea and Japan are spending tens of billions of dollars to upgrade their missile-defense systems. For the first time, the two countries and the U.S. started late last year to knit together their missile-radar systems, though integrated defenses remain a distant goal, military experts say.
Currently, South Korea possesses its homegrown Cheongung-II interceptor, complementing the U.S. Patriot missile interceptors and the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense system. South Korea plans to upgrade a deterrence system aimed at launching pre-emptive strikes and intercepting North Korean missiles by deploying more drones, spy satellites and homegrown medium- and long-range surface-to-air missile systems.
If Pyongyang were to launch a missile-and-drone attack in the region now, Washington and its allies may not be able to block even half of the barrage, according to Bang Jong-kwan, a former South Korean Army Major General.
“North Korea will watch closely how Iran’s tactic of putting pressure on air defenses could be applied on the Korean Peninsula,” he said.
Washington and Seoul have the ability to detect and intercept combined attacks by North Korea, though there are plans to upgrade defense systems, a Seoul military spokesman said in April.
Japan relies on both land-based Patriot-missile batteries and sea-based Aegis-equipped naval destroyers. Tokyo has also agreed to jointly develop with Washington interceptors that could take out hypersonic glide vehicles and ballistic missiles.
Japan has pledged a significant boost to its military budget—up nearly 50% this fiscal year from two years ago—as Tokyo looks to beef up defenses against regional threats such as North Korea. The expansion includes new systems, such as American Tomahawk missiles, which would give Japan the ability to target foreign military facilities if an attack appeared imminent.
Unlike Israel, South Korea and Japan don’t have much experience responding to a barrage of missiles launched all at once, said Grant Newsham, a senior research fellow at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies.
“I suspect both South Korea and Japan would have trouble responding to a no-notice North Korean missile attack,” said Newsham, a retired U.S. Marine colonel.
Chieko Tsuneoka contributed to this article.
Write to Dasl Yoon at dasl.yoon@wsj.com and Timothy W. Martin at Timothy.Martin@wsj.com
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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