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Soybeans led the complex softer today ahead of tomorrow's WASDE Report. May Soys traded their lowest level since the day of the March WASDE report today. "Recovery Wednesday" was looking promising this morning with strength out of the gate due to weather, before the trade started to adjust their positions. The trade is expecting some slight changes in the US carryouts for all commodities, but not material enough to drive prices significantly lower or higher. Tomorrow, in addition to the April WASDE report, we will also get an updated report from CONAB (Brazil). This will be a good indicator of where the South American crop is at.
West-central portions of U.S. HRW wheat country are too dry and crop stress is expected to worsen as hot, dry weather evolves this weekend, according to
World Weather.
This morning, private exporters reported sales of 254,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024/2025 marketing year.
The corn carryout number is arguably one of the largest pieces to watch tomorrow because of the sheer volume we are talking. Today’s EIA weekly production number shows the US is running 4.6% ahead of last year. The USDA projects a 3.8% YoY increase. It is not outside of the realm of expectation the USDA could add 25 mbu to its estimate in tomorrow’s update. Corn Feeding could see a 50 mbu bump (due to cattle) to match the stock’s number’s implied Q2 usage. At the same time, the export sales pace does not inspire expansion, and could find the USDA reducing that number a conservative 50 mbu in the update.
For the last 7 years, the average April trade guess for Brazil's #oybean crop was too low vs USDA's final printed figure, and that includes both good and weak harvests. On the other hand, analysts' April corn estimate has been too high vs final only in crop problem years.
The U.S. dollar remains at nearly a five-month high this afternoon following this morning's CPI data, with the Dow Jones still down over 500 points as well -inflation remains sticky and hopes for interest rate cuts in the coming few months are fading.
NEW! Wanstead Grain Text Updates
As Wanstead Farmers Co-operative continues its quest to get timely grain marketing information out to our farm customers, many producers have inquired about our ability to text our market commentaries and bids. Although we are limited by characters in what we can text compared to email, we are planning to start to send condensed text updates at midday in lieu of the traditional midday market emails (leaving the morning and closing commentaries via email).
Beginning April 15th, it is our intention, on a trial basis, to send out our midday commentary by text ONLY. We are also looking at using texts to communicate any grain prices/specials that might be being offered as well.
If you wish to join our text updates list, please text GRAIN to 519-800-0436. You can opt out at any time.
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