Persistent conflicts and humanitarian crises in Sahel countries highlight the pressing issue of unrest in Sub-Saharan Africa. This analysis delves into research indicating that distrust of state institutions, particularly among marginalised groups, plays a pivotal role in fueling regional conflicts. The discontent stems from perceived failures in addressing equity issues and inclusive growth, exacerbating feelings of exclusion. Conflict-prone hotspots near national borders, characterised by limited public services, pose significant security risks. Examining conflicts like those in Ethiopia, South Sudan, and the Central African Republic, the study introduces a new exclusion index, emphasising the instrumental role of social, political, and economic exclusion in driving unrest. A comprehensive approach to mitigating conflicts necessitates fostering just and equitable relationships between governments and citizens, crucial for sustainable peace and social cohesion. Click here to read full article by imf.org.

Theo Boshoff, CEO of Agbiz, emphasised the positive messages towards the business sector in the previous two State of the Nation Addresses (SONAs), acknowledging the need for job creation and reduced red tape. Boshoff highlighted a commitment in the previous SONA to improve energy and logistics, leading to the Freight Logistics Roadmap and draft amendments to the Electricity Regulation Act. He called for a clear commitment to implementing these reforms. Nicholas Dicey of Hortgro highlighted serious challenges in the fruit industry, including load-shedding, market access issues, and high input costs, with logistical problems at the Port of Cape Town being a significant concern. Christo Conradie of South Africa Wine urged the acceleration of actions proposed by the National Logistics Crisis Committee and the use of the pledged R47 billion bailout to Transnet to improve efficiencies at the Cape Town Port. James Faber of the Red Meat Producers’ Organisation emphasised the importance of well-functioning ports for the growth of the red meat industry and called for government intervention in enforcing legislation related to livestock diseases and traceability within the industry. Click here to read full article published on farmersweekly.co.za.

South African President, Cyril Ramaphosa, celebrates the launch of the first export shipment under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) preferential trade provisions from Durban port. As exports to AfCFTA countries already contribute significantly to South Africa's global exports, the President emphasises the need to enhance logistics efficiency for seamless export operations. Acknowledging the challenges faced by Transnet, the state-owned company managing ports and rail lines, he unveils the Freight Logistics Roadmap to stabilise and improve performance, with a focus on short-term interventions and long-term systemic reforms. The National Logistics Crisis Committee and Corridor Recovery Teams have been established to drive coordinated responses and strategic improvements. Initial results include a significant reduction in ship congestion at the Port of Durban. President Ramaphosa highlights ongoing measures, including the introduction of private sector investment and competition, to modernise the logistics system, lower costs, and stimulate economic growth. The Mining Indaba in Cape Town becomes a platform to showcase the mining industry's potential, with ongoing logistics reforms expected to play a pivotal role in unlocking growth opportunities. Read From the Desk of the President here.

As the farmers' protests continue in various regions of Europe, the primary question on the minds of South African agriculturalists is what implications, if any, these will have on local production and exports. According to various media reports, the protests mainly centre on the declining EU's agricultural subsidies, the environmental policy to reduce chemicals and fertilizer use, and the need for protection against imports. 1 Whether or not the farmers are correct in raising their dissatisfaction about the EU's policies on these areas is a point of much discussion. But it is worth emphasizing that these events and the policy outcome in response to them will matter for South Africa's agriculture in two ways. First, South Africa's agricultural sector is strongly linked with the European Union (EU) through trade. The region is South Africa's second most important market for South Africa's agricultural products, accounting for 27% of the country's total agricultural exports, according to data from Trade Map. The EU and the rest of the world seek to implement urgent policy measures to combat the effects of climate change. In its 2030 climate target plan, the EU aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% from 1990 levels. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

South Africa could have yet another decent summer grains and oilseeds harvest in the 2023-24 production season. The data released this past week by the Crop Estimates Committee puts the preliminary area plantings for summer grains and oilseeds at 4.41 million hectares, up by 0.4% year-on-year (albeit down mildly from 4.48 million hectares of the intended area when the season started). This increase is not limited to a few crops but across most summer crops except for soybeans, where plantings possibly fell by 10% year-on-year to 1.04 million hectares (which is still well above the five-year average area of 867 240 hectares). The area plantings for other major grains, such as maize and sunflower seed, is also well above the five-year average. White maize plantings are forecast at 1.56 million hectares, up 2% year-on-year, with yellow maize planting at 1.08 million hectares, up 2%. This places the total commercial maize planting estimate at 2.64 million hectares, 2% more than the 2022-23 production season. If we consider a five-year average maize yield of 5.78 tonnes a hectare in an area of 2.64 million hectares, South Africa can have a maize harvest of 15.25 million tonnes. This crop would be well above South Africa’s five-year production of 14.95 million tonnes, although down 7% year-on-year. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

South Africa could have yet another decent summer grains and oilseeds harvest in the 2023/24 production season. The data released this afternoon by the Crop Estimates Committee puts the preliminary area plantings for summer grains and oilseeds at 4,41 million hectares, up by 0,4% y/y (albeit down mildly from 4,48 million hectares of the intended area when the season started). This increase is not limited to a few crops but across most summer crops except for soybeans, where plantings possibly fell by 10% y/y to 1,04 million hectares (which is still well above the 5-year average area of 867 240 hectares). The area plantings for other major grains, such as maize and sunflower seed, is also well above the 5-year average. White maize plantings are forecast at 1,56 million hectares, up 2% y/y, with yellow maize planting at 1,08 million hectares, up 2%/y. This places the total commercial maize planting estimate at 2,64 million hectares, 2% more than the 2022/23 production season. Please click here to listen to this week's podcast by Wandile Sihlobo.

Dive into the latest edition of Agbiz Grain Quarterly, a digital magazine dedicated to the grain handling and storage industry. The February release delves into key discussions from the 2023 Agbiz Media Day, providing insights into challenges faced by grain handlers and storers. Experts simplify complex topics such as storage costs and the proposed grain passport system. The issue covers diverse subjects, including the 30-year performance of South Africa's agricultural sector, the economic outlook for 2024, explanations for the falling wheat grading numbers, JSE's storage cost definitions, risks in malting barley, and considerations for the grain passport system. It also explores standards for fumigation training, health and safety aspects like noise monitoring, and the applicability of Competition Act buyer power guidelines to storers and producers. Don't miss the Freight Logistics Roadmap and much more in this comprehensive February edition. Explore the digimag or download the PDF version.

As inflation gradually recedes in the wake of recent geopolitical events, a study examining 100 inflation shocks since the 1970s provides crucial insights for today's policymakers. The research reveals that inflation tends to be persistent, taking years to resolve after an initial shock. Premature celebration over declining inflation has historically led to its resurgence, emphasising the need for cautious policy decisions. The study underscores the importance of consistent and credible macroeconomic management to successfully combat inflation. Countries that tightened policies consistently and maintained credibility were more likely to resolve inflationary pressures. While the task is challenging, history demonstrates the long-term benefits of price stability, leading to higher growth and lower unemployment. Policymakers are advised to remain vigilant, prioritize real wages in response to labour market developments, and recognize that fighting inflation is a marathon, requiring perseverance and a focus on macroeconomic stability. Click here to read full report by imf.org.

South Africa’s wine industry, which marked its 365th anniversary on 2 February, is in a tight corner. A new macroeconomic impact report on the wine and brandy industry’s impact on the economy shows it’s being shackled by logistical issues at ports, policy uncertainty, a lack of action against the illicit alcohol trade, rolling blackouts and disruptions due to geopolitical issues. Together with the crippling Covid restrictions on economic activity, these factors are putting producers and wineries under considerable pressure, threatening livelihoods, tourism and the economy. The latest macroeconomic impact study of the SA wine industry, conducted for the South African Wine Industry Information and Systems (Sawis) by FTI Consulting, expands on an earlier economic multiplier analysis of industry trends from 2013 to 2019 and is accompanied by a 2022 study by I and M Futureneer Advisors measuring the economic contribution of wine tourism. The wine and brandy industry has played a significant role in rural areas, tourism, foreign revenue and the country’s brand reputation over the past 365 years, the report notes. Click here to read full article By Georgina Crouth for dailymaverick.co.za.

Business Against Crime South Africa (BACSA) is set to play a pivotal role in combating crime and corruption, becoming the primary point of contact between business and government. With crime estimated to cost the economy at least 10 percent of GDP annually, BACSA, now an independent legal entity, will lead Business for South Africa’s initiatives in this critical area. The organisation, established in 1996, operates through the National Priority Crime. Operational Committee (NPCOC), collaborating with key business leaders including Sibanye Stillwater CEO Neal Froneman and Remgro CEO Jannie Durand. A new BACSA board, led by CEO Dr. Graham Wright, will leverage business resources and expertise to support authorities in actively addressing rampant crime and corruption. The organisation, having achieved significant successes in collaboration with the private sector and the Criminal Justice System, aims to strengthen partnerships and collaboration, optimise existing anti-crime efforts, and mobilise society's broader support. BACSA will continue its Eyes and Ears initiative, coordinating operational responses with the South African Police Service and the Private Security Industry, showcasing its commitment to creating a safer South Africa and restoring public confidence. Click here to read full Media Statement by BACSA.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported that the FAO Food Price Index fell by 1% in January, primarily driven by declines in cereal and meat prices. The FAO Cereal Price Index dropped by 2.2%, influenced by lower global wheat export prices and a significant fall in maize prices due to improved crop conditions and harvest in Argentina and increased supplies in the United States. The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index rose slightly by 0.1%, reflecting moderate increases in palm and sunflower seed oil prices. The FAO Meat Price Index decreased for the seventh consecutive month, down 1.4% from December, driven by abundant supplies from major exporting countries. The FAO Sugar Price Index in January increased by 0.8%, attributed to concerns about below-average rains affecting sugarcane crops in Brazil, along with unfavourable production prospects in Thailand and India. Additionally, the report forecasts that global cereal production in 2023 is set to reach an all-time high of 2,836 million metric tonnes, with a significant upward adjustment in coarse grain output. World cereal utilisation is expected to surpass the 2022/23 level by 1.2%, driven by increased feed use, particularly in the European Union, Australia, and the United States. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio for 2023/24 is forecasted at a comfortable level of 31.1%, exceeding the previous year's ratio. Read full article by fao.org here.

This comprehensive update provides an overview of the South African supply chain and international trade dynamics. The commercial ports showed an increase in handling containers, averaging 7,507 per day, though they faced challenges such as equipment breakdowns, adverse weather conditions, and system issues. Global port congestion rose by 15%, impacting 1.71 million TEUs, attributed to rising demand before the Chinese New Year. In the air freight space, both inbound and outbound cargo to and from South Africa increased by 11%, yet market optimism is cautiously linked to the global scenario. Regional cross-border road freight trade experienced relatively stable average queue times but reduced transit times. Noteworthy is the ongoing recovery plan, aiming to clear port backlogs by the end of February, despite challenges such as corruption allegations and mismanagement. Collaborative efforts between the public and private sectors are vital for addressing the logistics crisis and reinforcing South Africa's role in global supply chain management. The urgency for proactive measures is emphasized, considering geopolitical and climate-induced congestion. Read the full update in the latest BUSA Cargo Movement Update.

Emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the hope for an extended period of global stability was swiftly shattered as a conflict erupted in the Black Sea region. Subsequently, we have witnessed escalating global conflicts that have triggered significant shifts in the geopolitical landscape. This has prompted nations to reassess measures that disrupt worldwide trade, including export restrictions and pricing controls that impact global supply chains. Concurrently, the international community grapples with combating critical plant and animal diseases while grappling with the looming spectre of climate change. However, the imperative remains for businesses to persevere and adapt to the evolving global terrain. In echoing Charles Darwin's theory, it is not the strongest species that survives, but rather those that prove most adaptable to change. In light of these challenges, the 2024 Agbiz Congress theme intentionally recognises the evolving global panorama and redirects its focus towards sustaining growth in this uncertain environment. Esteemed speakers will share their perspectives on how to navigate and adapt to the complexities posed by geopolitical, environmental, and social instability. Aligned with Agbiz's ethos, the Congress aims to seek solutions that will propel the sector towards prosperity. To learn more and register for the event, we have launched our 2024 Agbiz Congress website, where you can find comprehensive information and details about this vital gathering. Visit the website to stay updated and secure your spot at this essential event. Learn more and register for the 2024 Agbiz Congress here.

As the nation anticipates the forthcoming State of the Nation Address (SONA), South Africa Wine is highlighting several pressing matters that require immediate attention for the betterment of our industry. These priorities are all part of various submissions made to Government departments. If addressed proactively, they can significantly contribute to our industry’s growth and the well-being of the people who work and live in this industry. With its strong agricultural footprint and extensive value chain, the wine and brandy industry contributes R56 billion to the GDP and creates 270 000 jobs (1,8% of national employment). However, the lack of profitability at production and winery levels needs to be urgently addressed through targeted interventions underpinned by a conducive policy to ensure reinvestment and instil confidence. National priorities include excise tax alignment with inflation, investment in law enforcement (police and policing), infrastructure development, alternative power supply, agricultural development support, solar and wind alternative incentives, and water infrastructure prioritisation. Click here to read full statement by South Africa Wine.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

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