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ENERGY, GOLD, BITCOIN SENDING

A CLEAR MESSAGE

POLITICAL WEAPONIZATION OF THE DOLLAR IS AN INCREASING WORRY!

Click All Charts to Enlarge

SILVER: Is Silver about to follow Gold (and other Inflation hedges) to new highs??

1 - SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS

US TAX DAY April 15th: Seasonality will likely come into play here as the retail community tends to sell stocks into 4/15 to raise cash for these payments. Post payments we have historically seen a bullish trend develop.

Seasonality Says: 

LONG until April 9th - Then SELL - LONG Again After April 15th

CHART TOP RIGHT: April is normally considered the most favorable month in the world for equities!

CHART BOTTOM RIGHT: The first two weeks and the last two weeks of April have historically been seasonality quite strong

CHART BELOW: Tax Day could Trigger some tradable volatility? Remember the market moving CPI is Wednesday 04/10 proceeding Tax Day on 04/15.

SENTIMENT MAY BE "ADJUSTING"?

We have seen some degree of market weakness over the last week as the S&P 500 tested the 21 DMA for support. It appears that increasing numbers of investors are nervous about some degree of pullback after a historic run-up without any real corrective consolidation.

The Fear & Greed Index reflects this as it has lowered quite noticeably though registering a Greed reading (chart right).

CHART BELOW

Another measure of sentiment shows we are back in neutral territory in measuring extreme Greed versus Extreme Fear. Is a Fear Shock about to kick in, at least temporarily??

2 - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Investor appetite for equities remains strong, driven by confidence in earnings growth matching improving longer term economic growth estimates (chart right).

CEO'S INCREASING MORE CONFIDENT!

Any potential corrective / consolidation is to likely be short lived since CEO's are becoming increasingly more confidence with earnings outlooks looking strong. Typically this has lead to increased buyback levels (see chart below).

NOTE: Corporate Buybacks are in a closed window due to pending Q1 earnings releases.

CREDIT MARKETS

Since Credit always leads markets, we are watching it closely. This includes:

1. Inverted yield curves
2. Negative swap spreads
3. Collateral shortages
4. Tightening of credit standards by banks and
5. Reduced commercial lending
6. The High Yield Corporate "JNK" Market. (BELOW)

CREDIT RISK PROTECTION IS GETTING MORE EXPENSIVE



As the chart to the right indicates, CDX IG and iTraax are to have bottomed and have turned up.

THE HIGH YIELD CORPORATE "JNK" MARKET

There is a strong technical patterns on 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year US Treasuries showing an Ascending Triangle, all suggesting yields are heading higher (chart right).

This appears to match the HY Credit Markets which show a possible approaching conclusion to their major corrective consolidation. The technical Ascending Triangle (ABCDE) in the JNK suggests this may be completed over the next 90 days (chart below)

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

3 - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

THE HEADLINE MARKET: MAGNIFICENT 7

• We are reaching the vertical lift part of the parabolic (geometric) lift shown by the dashed red line.
• We have intermediate term Divergence with momentum (bottom pane).
• In the short term Momentum appears to be rolling over (bottom pane).

MATASII CROSS: WEEKLY - CONTINUES TO SIGNAL A MAG-7 BUY

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

"CURRENCY" MARKET (Currency, Gold, Black Gold (Oil) & Bitcoin)

CONTROL PACKAGE

There are EIGHT charts we have outlined in prior chart packages which we will continue to watch closely as a CURRENT "control set".

1. US DOLLAR -DXY - MONTHLY (CHART LINK)
2. US DOLLAR - DXY - DAILY (CHART LINK)
3. GOLD - DAILY (CHART LINK)
4. GOLD cfd's - DAILY (CHART LINK)
5. GOLD - Integrated - Barrick Gold (CHART LINK)
6. OIL - XLE - MONTHLY (CHART LINK)
7. OIL - WTIC - MONTHLY - (CHART LINK)
8. BITCOIN - BTCUSD -WEEKLY (CHART LINK)

CHART ABOVE RIGHT

As gold pushes to higher & higher record highs (in USD terms), Real yields refuse to play along?? I side with BoAML's Michael Hartnett and believe that what we are seeing is Gold aggressively discounting a coming collapse in Real Rates.

GOLD cfd's - DAILY

The 3 Std Deviation band for Gold has gone almost vertical with Gold prices tracking it!! Frankly, in over 40 years I don't believe I have seen this technically occur with a 3 Std Dev in Gold? Something is either broken, panic has set in somewhere or there is an "elephant(s)" now playing the market?

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

INTEGRATED GOLD MINERS

We have a close eye on Gold and the INTEGRATED GOLD MINERS as represented by Barrick Gold. Barrick which broken out of its long term declining overhead resistance trend. It is likely time to be adding to your Gold and Silver positions on pullback opportunities.

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

US EQUITY MARKETS

CONTROL PACKAGE

There have FIVE charts we have outlined in prior chart packages that we will continue to watch closely as a CURRENT "control set".

1. The S&P 500 (CHART LINK)
2. The DJIA (CHART LINK)
3. The Russell 2000 through the IWM ETF (CHART LINK),
4. The MAGNIFICENT SEVEN (CHART ABOVE WITH MATASII CROSS - LINK)
5. Nvidia (NVDA) (CHART LINK)

S&P 500 CFD

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

S&P 500 - Daily - Our Though Experiment

Our Though Experiment, which we have discussed previously, suggests we have put in a near term top (or very close to it) and will now consolidate before possibly completing one final small impulse higher or put in a 1-2 Wave of a much higher degree.

NOTE: To reiterate what I previously wrote - "the black labeled activity shown below, between now and July, looks like a "Killing Field" where the algos take Day Traders, "Dip Buyers", "Gamma Guys" and FOMO's all out on stretchers!"

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

• STOCK MONITOR: What We Spotted

BOND MARKET

CONTROL PACKAGE

There have FIVE charts we have outlined in prior chart packages that we will continue to watch closely as a CURRENT "control set".

1. The 10Y TREASURY NOTE YIELD - TNX - HOURLY (CHART LINK)
2. The 10Y TREASURY NOTE YIELD - TNX - DAILY (CHART LINK)
3. The 10Y TREASURY NOTE YIELD - TNX - WEEKLY (CHART LINK)
4. The 30Y TREASURY BOND YIELD - TNX - WEEKLY (CHART LINK)
5. REAL RATES (CHART LINK)
6. FISHER'S EQUATION = 10Y Yield = 10Y INFLATION BE% +REAL % = 2.382% + 1.976% = 4.358%

As rate-cut expectations fell from 6 this year to 3, Treasury yields rose... non-stop... all week with the belly of the curve underperforming (5Y yields up 28bps on the week). Yields all ended back up near their year-to-date highs.

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

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