February 23, 2024

Saturday marks the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and recent developments underscore the current grim state of the war. Though its traditional economy has been decimated, much of its foreign reserves frozen, its access to Western markets greatly proscribed, much of its pre-invasion military forces injured or killed, still in many respects things are now going Putin’s way -- at least temporarily. Russia has been bolstered throughout the war by ongoing trade with key powers like India and China. Leaders like Putin and Xi also recognize that domestic strife can weaken a nation’s resolve on international issues, and we can expect our adversaries to continue inciting and enflaming polarization through global disinformation campaigns that advance their interests.

On the battlefield, the Russian capture of the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka was a significant advancement in a war that was seemingly stalemated. That’s because Russia continues to provide from its prisons and border regions an endless supply of soldiers and has far superior munitions, largely supplied from allies like Iran, Belarus, Syria and North Korea. But Avdiivka was hard won and will be difficult to replicate -- it is believed that Russia may have lost over 16-17,000 soldiers in this battle alone. Without a concerted boost from Ukraine’s allies, more Russian advancements are likely in the months to come.

Right now, Ukraine is running low on resources and the U.S. Congress has failed to provide critical funding. Ukraine is critically low on soldiers and munitions and is only subsisting from a recent aid package from Europe. Moreover, Russia is running a successful disinformation war that paying literal dividends in in Africa where former Wagner-Group militias have been commandeered by Putin’s supporters and continue to advance Russian territorial goals securing access to minerals and gold. Russia’s disinformation efforts have also had a meaningful effect on resistance to the war in Europe and most notably in Washington. The political impasse of the U.S. Congress both encourages Putin and rattles NATO members deeply. And at this critical juncture, our hesitation will be viewed as a weakness by all global powers.

Further, the murder of Alexei Navalny, seemed to be deliberately timed to align with the opening of the Munich Security Conference – underscoring Putin’s disdain for the current international order seeking to promote diplomacy and security. The protracted attacks on Alexei Navalny over several years, ultimately ending in his unjust death, sends a message to Russian dissidents at home and abroad that any resistance is futile. And shortly after Navalny was killed, the Russian pilot Maksim Kuzminov who defected to Ukraine by helicopter was killed in Spain- another possible sign of dissident targeting.

But Navalny’s widow, Yulia Navalnaya, has bravely taken up his mantle and even in Russia, mourners have risked arrest to lay flowers in protest in Navalny’s honor. Ukrainian resolve remains strong despite huge tolls on its morale. It is important not to underplay the advances Ukraine has made in the Black Sea or the fact that NATO’s expanded membership is deeply meaningful for European security. Hopefully Navalny’s tragic death will motivate the current US Congress to move forward with due haste to send Ukraine the support it needs to defend against further Russian gains. 

Check out Jack Devine's recent interview with Jack Murphy and David Parke: Chief Of The Directorate Of Operations For CIA | Jack Devine | Ep. 260 (youtube.com)

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