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Mixed trade today to kick off March. Since last Friday. the spot cash price of beans is up 28 cents, corn is up 10 cents, and wheat is down 11 cents. The price levels in all three commodities are significantly lower than the last two years and have pulled back to levels seen in 2021 while costs of production are 12% higher than 2021. Next week we will get an update on the USDA WASDE report (March 8th), which will likely dominate much of the price action next week as we prepare.
With the end of the March contract for soybeans, most of the deliveries overnight and all of the deliveries of March, soybean oil were stopped, indicating strong interest by the commercials and this was viewed as positive.
Corn failed to reach and push through its 20-day average this week ($4.36), and faded to the downside after 3 positive days in a row after being caught between the weakness in wheat and the strength in soybeans.
It was reported today that Ukraine exported roughly 5.2 mmt's of grain in the month of February according to a report; this is the highest monthly figure since the Russian invasion. It was also announced that the EU was working on developing new points of exit for Ukraine’s grain supply. Grain exports could increase via Romania rail, river, and temporary terminals in the Black Sea port of Constanta. The projected increase in Ukraine’s exports is 2 to 2.5 mmt/month. US and EU futures were in retreat all session on the possibility of Ukraine’s freer export possibilities. This put significant pressure on corn and wheat today.
In related news, Reuters reported today that only grain ships from Black Sea and for Iran still crossing Red Sea.
USDA expected to report this afternoon that January soybean crush totaled 196.3 million bu., but rather had performed above expectations at 194.8 million bushels. That is down from last month (204.3), but up from this month last year (191.1).
For those of you who were not able to make it to our grower meeting this week, we have some highlights posted on our website including some slides from StoneX! I would encourage you to take a look at them. Bailey did a great job on her presentation titled "Do Something" showing where we are sitting in terms of prices from a historical perspective, while also doing an overview of the bullish and bearish factors for each commodity in the market.
Funds were thought to have been mixed today with corn and wheat sellers and beans a buyer. Corn was thought to have sold 3,000 contracts (short 285,000), while wheat was thought to have sold 8,000 (short 69,000). Soybeans were thought to have bought 5,000 contracts (short 147,000). On Tuesday, corn was shown to be significantly longer than expected by almost 49,000 contracts at 287,000, while soybeans were slightly shorter by 6,000 contracts at 151,000 and wheat was longer by 14,000 contracts at 55,000. Corn took a decent chunk out of its record short from last week.
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