The first week of every month, In Other News features a short op-ed heavily informed by the European perspective. We hope that these special monthly pieces will offer our readers an enriched understanding of global events and allow for a more robust international risk calculus.
Washington’s next move is key, but the evolving domestic politics of European states will also heavily impact the future of Ukraine. During last month’s Munich Security Conference, many European leaders were eager to discuss the implications of the next US election on Ukraine’s future. But there was hardly any discussion regarding the upcoming European Parliament election in June and how this will impact what happens next. Indeed, unlike the US election, where European leaders are watching from the sidelines, in Europe these leaders have a crucial role to play at the Parliamentary elections. There’s also likely to be a reordering of political priorities that could serve to endanger support for Ukraine moving forward.
The Chega “Enough” party led by Andre Ventura is expected to have a strong showing in the upcoming Portuguese general election on March 10. Such an outcome would follow the ascent of Marine le Pen in France, Alternative fur Deutschland in Germany, Lega, Forza Italia and Fratelli d’ Italia in Italy, and the Freedom Party in the Netherlands. These election results combined might lead to far-right parties ending up as one of the major political forces in the European Parliament this summer.
The prominence of far-right leaders could have a sizable impact on upcoming European policies because the European Parliament is organized not by country but by political affiliation. Currently, the Parliament is dominated by established parties like the European People’s Party (Christian Democrat), the Social Democrats, the Renew group (liberal), and the Greens. The next tier down in terms of influence includes the rightwing and far-right: the Conservatives and Reform Group and the Identity and Democracy Group.
The upcoming elections may change that, however. Even if the far-right candidates don’t achieve political leadership positions after the election, numbers-wise they will still be a force to be reckoned with. And the European Union’s (EU) policies will shift in response.
Parties like Chega and the Freedom Party are anti-migration and if they assume more power, we can anticipate stricter and more reticent immigration laws. Party leaders are likely to push the limits of their obligations under UN 1951 Refugee Convention - which established the scope of UNHCR and was supplemented by the 1967 Protocol. They would also like to limit immigrant and migrant access to public services like housing and welfare.
Along with a push to inhibit migration, the far-right would seek to shift policies impacting European and global citizens alike. Party leaders want to curb the EU’s most recent climate change policies, or The Green Deal, and they share a view on international economic policy that is much more protectionist than free trade oriented. We shouldn’t expect any major breakthroughs on Free Trade agreements if they assume more power in June.
Like in the United States, the European far-right has also been increasingly critical of supporting Ukraine. Some of the party leaders, like Hungary’s Orban, remain friendly towards Putin, but there’s also the chance that once elected they would become more mainstream. For example, when Giorgia Meloni became Italian Prime Minister, she shifted her party’s policies back towards the center. Either way, these leaders are likely to oppose large scale financial and military assistance to Ukraine and will plead for a political solution - thus helping Vladimir Putin achieve his war aims.
Traditional European political parties will need to carefully assess their strategies should the far-right gain a stronger foothold. There’s the possibility that most new leaders will inevitably shift back to the center once they are confronted with the realities of political office. But these party leaders could also manage to use their office to further their shared agenda. Indeed, regardless of the results of the US election, Europe will be grappling with effective political rule and stability on its own turf- and the results will impact domestic and foreign politics alike.
The Arkin Group is a strategic intelligence firm offering investigative research, due diligence, international risk and crisis consulting, and security & preparedness services. We can be contacted at 212-333-0280.
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