Although many forecasts are pessimistic, considering the consensus forecast of 1-2% GDP growth, the Manufacturing Index is still a bit off, and being offset by the service sector.
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised lower to 47.9 in December 2023 from a preliminary of 48.2, and compared to 49.4 in November, pointing to a bigger deterioration in manufacturing conditions. Output returned to decline and the downturn in new orders gathered pace, reflecting weakness in both domestic and external demand conditions, with firms adjusting down their input buying and hiring activity accordingly. Signs of greater spare capacity were seen through a faster fall in backlogs and destocking, with firms also seeking to better manage cashflow.
The S&P Global US Services PMI rose to 51.3 in December of 2023 from 50.8 in the previous month, beating expectations of 50.8, and extending the period of resilience of the US services sector to restrictive interest rates from the Fed. The result marked the 11th consecutive period of expansion, at the fastest pace since July, with respondents confirming an increase in new orders due to greater advertising spending, upselling of additional service lines to existing clients, and looser financial conditions due to the sharp decline in Treasury yields. Still, firms noted that pressure on the disposable income for overseas clients limited growth in the period. Additionally, US service providers logged the sharpest level of employment growth since June, supported by anticipation of strong business in the coming months.
Hopefully your Strategy and Business planning are set with the eventual scenario planning, so you can adjust quickly to deviations to your Goals measured with KPI. Keep in mind the 3 basic levels of decision making
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