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We saw both sides of the double-digit spectrum today with soybeans really down on weather in Brazil, wheat really up on Russia news, and corn hanging near unchanged caught between the two.
Crude oil prices are 1% higher at three-month highs on elevated geopolitical risks combined with lower export numbers from Iraq and Saudi Arabia amid rising global demand.
Wheat was up on geopolitical news today including that Russian President Vladimir Putin swept through the country’s election over the weekend to secure a fifth term in power, claiming 87.97% of the vote in a contest with no real opposition. This will keep him in power for another 6 YEARS! In response to this, Ukrainian lawmakers are debating a bill that could raise up to half a million new soldiers, increasing Ukraine’s standing army by half. Putin is planning to mobilize more men, once the election is over, so it might become a necessary step, but would reduce the amount of men able to continue farming in Ukraine.
Friday’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report confirmed that recent price strength in the grain and oilseed complex coincided with the unwinding of short positions by managed money. They still lean heavily short, but not to the extreme extent seen this winter.(People are less aggressively betting that the market is going to continue to go down... short=people selling... lots of that being managed money and speculators, buy low, sell high)
Weekly export inspections were primarily average with all commodities within expectations. Corn was at the high end, while wheat was at the low end. Marketing year to date corn export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 34 million bushels, up from 28 million the previous week. Marketing year to date soybean export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 6 million bushels, versus being short of the pace by 2 million bushels the previous week. Marketing year to date wheat export inspections fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 36 million bushels. See numbers below.
Farmers in Brazil had harvested 63% of their soybeans as of Thursday, slightly ahead of the year-ago pace of 62%. That compares with 55% a week earlier. Second crop corn is 97% planted vs 91% a year ago. Brazil sees much needed rainfall of 2-3" in the coming days according to GFS models.
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