Text of Six-Part FY 2024 Funding ‘Minibus’ Released; House Vote Possibly Wednesday

Washington Focus

A busy week in our nation’s capital, including (1) Thursday’s State of the Union address, (2) Congress likely passing a six-part minibus for fiscal year (FY) 2024 funding, including for USDA, (3) Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testimony before the House (Wednesday) and Senate (Thursday), (4) Employment report on Friday, (5) the monthly spate of USDA reports (WASDE/Crop Production, etc.), (6) Super Tuesday is here, and (7) the Supreme Court said it would issue a ruling on Monday; it could potentially involve rulings related to efforts to prevent Donald Trump from appearing on the presidential election ballot in Colorado.

— The House on Wednesday is expected to vote on a first tranche “minibus” of full-year spending bills including the departments of Agriculture, Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, Veterans Affairs and Energy, along with the Food and Drug Administration. The Environmental Protection Agency and departments of Commerce, Justice and Interior also are covered. Enactment of the measure will fund those agencies through Sept. 30.

Congressional leaders on Sunday unveiled the plan (link/pdf). That sets up a Wednesday vote in the House under the chamber’s 72-hour rule to give lawmakers sufficient time to consider the package.

Key provisions of the agreement include preventing oil sales from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to China. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer(D-N.Y.) emphasized that the bill avoids contentious policy language that Democrats oppose, focusing instead on critical areas like food aid, infrastructure, and veterans’ benefits.

The bill boosts food aid under the WIC nutrition program for women, infants and children, providing $7.03 billion, a $1.03 billion increase over the current level, Senate Appropriations Chair Patty Murray (D-Wash.) said in a statement.

Republicans are pleased that the draft bill will redirect $20 billion in funds for tax audits by the Internal Revenue Services. Those funds were provided as part of Biden’s signature economic package in the last Congress and would generate large revenue by detecting tax cheats, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.

It also redirects $18 billion in previously approved Covid-19 pandemic funds for other uses.

While drug enforcement funding is increased in the deal, funds for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms are tightened.

While the bill falls short of conservative demands for major cuts to domestic spending, Republicans have secured some policy changes, including limits on information sharing between the Veterans Affairs department and the federal gun registry. Republicans also are highlighting provisions addressing concerns such as parental rights at school-board meetings and foreign purchases of agricultural land. However, their efforts to restrict food stamp benefits and redirect funds from tax audits and Covid-19 relief face opposition.

The GOP acknowledges that non-defense funding overall doesn’t receive a cut in the funding deal, but points out that President Joe Biden in his budget proposal for the year sought a $72 billion increase for the category.

The second batch of bills will be considered by the March 22 midnight deadline to avoid a partial government shutdown, lawmakers have said. That package includes the Defense, Financial Services, Legislative Branch, Homeland Security, Labor-HHS-Education and State-Foreign Operations measures.

Perspective: Oct. 1 has been the official kickoff date for the federal fiscal year since 1977. Lawmakers have passed at least one continuing resolution in all but three of the years in the nearly half-century since. The 1997 fiscal year was the most recent one in which no CRs were enacted, according to the Congressional Research Service (link/pdf).

— President Biden is gearing up to address the nation in his State of the Union speech on Thursday, March 7, presenting a laundry list of priorities amid a gridlocked Congress.

He will likely focus on hiking taxes for the wealthy and corporations, reducing prescription drug prices, and eliminating junk fees. Biden aims to outline his vision for an uncertain future amidst looming re-election and uncertainty over control of Congress.

Of note: While some reports signal Biden’s performance will be closely watched relative to increasing concerns about his age, etc., in the past Biden has shown he can deliver an address with a teleprompter guiding him.

— The reasons behind the Biden administration missing its self-imposed by March 1 deadline for more SAF credit details. Unless it’s a court-mandated announcement (and sometimes not even that…) most are not surprised when EPA fails to make a promised announcement. This time the topic was something very important to the ag sector: what fuels are eligible for the SAF tax credit.

A Houston letdown. The thousands of attendees at the latest Commodity Classic, largely a trade show, in Houston Texas, were all primed to hear an SAF announcement. But as we and others reported before EPA Administrators Michael Regan and USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack appeared together before the Houston confab, the announcement was not made.

Reasons for the no announcement. “In order to get the model right, in order to get the guidance right, we’re going to take a few more weeks, and I mean weeks, not months, to make sure that the guidance is correct, that it acknowledges the work that’s being done in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, relative to transportation fuels and the good work that’s being done out in the field to embrace climate-smart practices,” Vilsack said. He added that the Treasury Department, the agency determining what fuels are eligible for the tax credit, needs more data to determine which fuels will have a minimum reduction of 50% in lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions, which will qualify them for the tax credit that was included in the Inflation Reduction Act (Climate Bill). He noted that he had insisted in Inter-Agency Working Group meetings that the evaluation of the fuels include the Energy Department’s GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies) life cycle analysis of energy, emissions and environmental impact, which the ethanol industry believes would treat it more fairly.

But wait, Vilsack offered another reason for the delayed SAF announcement. At Commodity Classic in Houston, Vilsack discussed the impact of government shutdown threats on the delay of updates to the GREET model. Vilsack noted that preparations for shutdowns need to occur beforehand, and adjustments to agency shutdown plans are necessary based on each situation. He expressed frustration with the unpredictability of shutdown threats, labeling the situation as "crazy."

Vilsack said his two goals have been to ensure the GREET model (link) is incorporated in the process, and make sure that biofuels, ethanol, biodiesel and the feedstocks that provide those fuels have the ability to qualify for the tax credits. He added he is confident that 95% of SAF will come from feedstocks from farmers. “And that is particularly true of those feedstocks that are generated through climate-smart practices — no-till, cover crops, energy efficient fertilizers and things that you are already using in the field to produce a wide array of the commodities that you raise,” he said, adding USDA has been the farmers’ voice at interagency meetings focused on modifying the emissions model.

Vilsack said he wants to ensure a wide variety of agricultural feedstocks could qualify for the SAF tax credits, particularly those produced using climate smart practices that farmers are already using in the field. “Until several months ago, there wasn’t consensus on the modeling to use to make the calculations,” he added. “That takes some time and effort. Now we’re in the process of taking the next steps, which should take a matter of weeks. “You also must verify that you’re doing what you say you’re doing. It’s complicated but we’re working through it. We’ll get there.”

So, when are the SAF credit details coming? Depends on who is responding. Vilsack believes the model for the tax credit will be released “within weeks.” But Renewable Fuels Association President Geoff Cooper is uncertain how long it will take. “While we are pleased to hear progress is being made on the modified GREET model, we are disappointed by this additional delay,” Cooper said in a news release. Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy, said, “The administration made a clear commitment to finalize this guidance no later than March 1. This delay is frustrating, but we’re optimistic that it’s happening for a productive reason.”

“Ethanol is not expected to automatically qualify as a feedstock for SAF under the revised GREET model under consideration,” according to Reuters reporter Jarrett Renshaw, citing unnamed sources. If so, he added that would force producers “to cobble together practices like solar power and sustainable farming techniques to push them above the threshold.”

Of note: EPA’s Regan at the conference said that the agency is committed to meeting the administration's goal of 3 billion gallons of SAF production annually by 2030. Vilsack said the administration remains on track to achieve that goal.

More on the SAF credits: The credit incentivizes the production of SAF that achieves a lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions reduction of at least 50% as compared with petroleum-based jet fuel. Producers of SAF are eligible for a tax credit of $1.25 to $1.75 per gallon. SAF that decreases GHG emissions by 50% is eligible for the $1.25 credit per gallon amount, and SAF that decreases GHG emissions by more than 50% is eligible for an additional $0.01 per gallon for each percentage point the reduction exceeds 50%, up to $0.50 per gallon.

Regarding the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), Regan said it is on a trajectory of growth and regulatory certainly. “EPA is committed to getting the RFS “back on track and growing,” he said. “I’m proud that we’ve approved the largest renewable fuels obligations and for three years – 2023-2025… This diversifies our energy supply, reduces greenhouse gas emissions and improves national security. We’re also approaching the RFS and volume obligations in a way that’s legally defensible and scientifically sound,” he added.

— As we alerted Friday morning, EPA announced the establishment of the Office of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, aimed at fostering connections with farmers, ranchers, small towns, and rural communities. This office seeks to implement practical, science-based solutions to safeguard the environment while supporting a thriving agricultural system. It will assist underserved rural areas in accessing federal grants for infrastructure enhancements and community projects. Additionally, the office will enhance collaboration with federal and state partners like the USDA, FDA, and state agriculture departments. Link to EPA announcement of the new ag-related office.

Rod Snyder, previously a senior adviser for agriculture at the EPA, will lead the new department, which will also oversee the agency's existing federal advisory committee on farm, ranch, and rural communities.

— USDA to host trilateral trade talks. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack said he will host a trilateral meeting with the ag administrators of Mexico and Canada later this year in Colorado. Issues on the table include Mexico’s stance on biotechnology and opening Canada’s market for U.S. dairy farmers. It will also include enforcing trade agreements and reducing trade barriers to agricultural products produced by farmers in the three countries.

— Did presidential candidate Trump modify his prior aggressive trade policy stance? Donald Trump said he will impose tit-for-tat tariffs if he is re-elected president. “I will pass the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act,” Trump said Saturday at a rally in Greensboro, North Carolina. “If China or any country makes us pay a 100 or 200% tariff, we will make them pay a reciprocal tariff of 100 or 200% right back.”

Trump has previously suggested raising tariffs by more than 60% on Chinese goods, as well as revoking the global superpower’s “most favored nation” status for US trade. He has also floated a 10% tariff on all goods imported to the U.S.

— The Fed released its semi-annual monetary policy report Friday ahead of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress this Wednesday (House) and Thursday (Senate). The report (link) acknowledged a significant easing in inflation over the past year, although it remains above the bank's 2% target. Despite this, the report noted that unemployment has stayed low, indicating a tight labor market. The Fed indicated that interest rates are likely at their peak for the current tightening cycle but stated it won't consider lowering rates until it's more confident that inflation is steadily moving towards the 2% mark.

The report also highlighted decreased stress in the banking system since last March but emphasized ongoing monitoring of certain areas of risk.

Employment and earnings gaps along gender, race, ethnicity and education lines have narrowed amid high demand for workers, the report showed, though the central bank noted that substantial disparities among different groups still remain.

— The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue at least one opinion on Monday, which could potentially involve rulings related to efforts to prevent Donald Trump from appearing on the presidential election ballot in Colorado. The timing of the decision, just before Colorado's Super Tuesday Republican primary, suggests a significant development in Trump's eligibility status.

The court's decision to announce a new opinion day over the weekend is unusual, especially since the justices will not convene on Monday, as is customary for opinion announcements. Observers say this indicates the urgency and importance of the matter at hand. (On its website (link), the Court said this regarding Monday: “The Court will release an order list at 9:30 a.m. The Court may announce opinions on the homepage beginning at 10 a.m. The Court will not take the Bench.”)

The case involves a ruling by the Colorado Supreme Court, which found Trump ineligible for the ballot due to his involvement in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot. This ruling, based on the insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, is significant as it marks the first instance of a court barring Trump from a ballot for this reason.

Despite the ruling, Trump's appearance on primary ballots in Colorado was temporarily allowed while the U.S. Supreme Court deliberates on the issue. Similar challenges in Maine and Illinois have also declared Trump ineligible, but those decisions are also pending review.

The Colorado case is one of several pending before the court this term, but its expedited nature underscores its importance alongside other significant cases, including challenges to the Purdue Pharma opioid settlement.

— Tax package measure faces Senate hurdles. The bill, which passed the House with significant support, aims to provide tax breaks, including an expanded child tax credit and deductions for businesses. It also seeks to address issues with the pandemic-era employee retention tax credit.

Senate roadblocks: Despite its success in the House, the bill encounters obstacles in the Senate, primarily due to concerns from Senate Republicans. These concerns revolve around the child tax credit provisions, particularly the provision allowing families to qualify for the credit even if they had no income in the prior year.
Negotiations and opposition: Senators Thom Tillis and Ron Johnson oppose the bill, along with Senators Mitt Romney and Mike Lee. The bill's authors attempted to garner Republican support but faced opposition, leading to a deadlock in the Senate.
Current status and possible paths: The bill remains stalled in the Senate, with uncertainty surrounding its future. One option involves negotiating changes with key Republicans, such as Senator Mike Crapo, to secure broader support. However, this approach presents challenges as Democrats may not accept GOP demands without concessions. The alternative is to seek support from nine Republicans to overcome procedural hurdles and pass the bill.
Contentious issues: The bill addresses conflicting views on the child tax credit, with Republicans emphasizing the need for recipients to have earned income and Democrats advocating for broader eligibility. The provision allowing families to qualify based on a lookback to the prior year's income is particularly contentious.
Economic and social perspectives: Supporters argue that the lookback provision accounts for temporary disruptions in income due to factors like illness or childbirth. They emphasize its importance for low-income families' financial flexibility. Critics, however, believe it could disincentivize work and raise concerns about fraudulent claims.

— Super Tuesday, occurring on March 5, is the busiest day of the primary season, with voters in 15 states participating in nominating contests for president and down-ballot races. This pivotal day may also signal the end of Nikki Haley's unlikely attempt to thwart Donald Trump's path to securing the Republican nomination.

More than a third of all GOP delegates are at stake, with most states awarding them on a winner-take-all basis. Even strong second-place finishes for Haley may result in no delegates.

The states participating in Super Tuesday include Alabama, Alaska (for Republicans only), Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, and American Samoa (for Democrats only).

While the impact on November's general election is limited, analysts will closely observe demographic trends, particularly in North Carolina, the sole presidential battleground state among those voting on Tuesday.

For Haley, Super Tuesday represents a pivotal moment in deciding the future of her campaign, although challenges loom large given her failure to secure victories in the initial state contests.

Donald Trump is expected to come close to clinching the Republican nomination following Super Tuesday, with continued focus on challenging President Biden.

Additionally, the significance of California's primary lies in the potential delegate haul, while also spotlighting the competitive U.S. Senate race (see next item). Polls will close throughout the evening, with Alaska's polls closing last.

Of note: Trump was declared the winner in the Idaho caucus Saturday night after winning similar victories in Michigan and Missouri earlier in the day. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, meanwhile, is still seeking her first win. There were no Democratic contests on Saturday.

A flip-flop. Nikki Haley walked back a pledge to support Donald Trump if he wins GOP presidential nomination: “I'll make what decision I want to make,” she said. During the first GOP debate, Haley said she would vote for Trump if he was the Republican nominee, even if he was convicted of a felony.

Details:

Michigan: Trump garnered all 39 delegates at the Michigan Republican Party’s caucus convention in Grand Rapids.
Missouri: The Missouri caucus determined how 51 of the state’s 54 delegates would be awarded. All 924 caucus precincts went in Trump’s favor by 50% or more, adding 51 of Missouri’s 54 convention delegates to his tally. Three more at-large delegates will be free to vote at will under party rules. The remaining three delegates will be determined by the state party chairman and Missouri’s Republican National Committeeman and Committeewoman, who can choose to vote for whomever they like.
Idaho: Trump collected all of the state’s 32 delegates after winning 84.3% of the vote. Haley only collected 13.8% and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — who dropped out of the race last month — won 1.3%. Idaho has a winner-take-all caucus system, with a candidate receiving all 32 if they get above 50% of the vote. If Trump and Haley had both failed to reach that benchmark, the delegates would have been awarded proportionally.

— Tuesday's congressional primaries are crucial for incumbents, with some facing potential losses to challengers. House members in California and Texas are contending for Senate seats, while various primary battles unfold across several states.

Notable races include:

A Senate primary in California featuring Democratic House members Barbara Lee, Adam B. Schiff, and Katie Porter vying for the seat previously held by Senator Dianne Feinstein.
Competitive House primaries are taking place in California's 22nd District, Texas's 18th District, and Alabama's 1st District. In Texas, Rep. Colin Allred seeks to unseat Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, facing a challenge from Democrat Roland Gutierrez. Meanwhile, in Alabama, Reps. Jerry Carl and Barry Moore compete in a member-on-member race. Other contests include Rep. Steve Womack's primary challenge in Arkansas's 3rd District.

— The Wisconsin Supreme Court on Friday rejected a last-minute attempt by Democrats to alter the state's congressional map for the November elections. Governor Tony Evers had recently signed a new map, seen as disadvantageous to Republicans, who hold six of the state's eight congressional seats. The decision means the old map, not the new one, will be used for the 2024 congressional races, impacting re-election prospects for Reps. Bryan Steil and Derrick Van Orden. Democrats, led by elections legal expert Marc Elias, had hoped for success, especially after the election of liberal Justice Janet Protasiewicz. However, Protasiewicz essentially recused herself from the decision, leading to a blow for the Democratic efforts. Link to details via the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

— President Joe Biden lags Donald Trump in the newest New York Times/Siena College national poll by five percentage points among registered voters, 48% to 43%. That’s the largest lead Trump has ever had in a Times/Siena national poll and is the largest lead Trump has held in a Times/Siena or Times/CBS poll since he ran for president in 2015. Link to NYT article on the poll. Link to poll results.

Trump and Biden are unpopular. Trump had a weak 44% favorable rating; Biden fared even worse, at 38%. Among the 19% of voters who said they disapproved of both likely nominees — an unusually large cohort in 2024 that pollsters and political strategists sometimes call “double haters” — Biden actually led Trump, 45% to 33%. The candidate who had won such “double haters” was victorious in the elections in both 2016 and 2020.

An excitement gap between the two parties shows up repeatedly in the survey: Only 23% of Democratic primary voters said they were enthusiastic about Biden — half the share of Republicans who said they were about Trump. Significantly more Democrats said they were either dissatisfied or angry at Biden being the leader of the party (32%) than Republicans who said the same about Trump (18%).

Of note: A majority of voters who backed President Biden in 2020 now say he is too old to serve another term effectively. The poll found that 61% of those who voted for Biden in 2020 strongly agreed or somewhat agreed that he is “just too old” to serve effectively. Among those planning on voting for him in a hypothetical general election, 59% still say he is too old to be an effective president. Despite Trump only being four years younger than Biden, voters are less concerned with the former president’s age. When asked if Trump is “just too old’ to be an effective president, 42% of registered voters strongly or somewhat agreed. Trump’s supporters were also unlikely to describe the former president as being too old for office. Just 14% of those who voted for Trump in 2020 strongly or somewhat agreed he was “just too old” to be an effective president and 18% of those backing him in a hypothetical 2024 election said the same.

Bottom line: The NYT says unhappiness with the state of the country is “plainly a drag on Mr. Biden’s prospects. Two-thirds of the country feels the nation is headed in the wrong direction — and Mr. Trump is winning 63% of those voters.”

Meanwhile, election guru Stuart Rothenberg has this to say about the presidential election via comments in Roll Call (link): “The fundamental problem for both parties is that conservatives and Republicans distrust Biden while liberals and Democrats distrust Trump. They view events through those partisan and ideological lenses, which makes it difficult for voters to change their minds about who they support. As the South Carolina exit poll showed, most voters made their minds up very early. For the moment, if the election is either a referendum on Biden or a choice between the two nominees, Biden finds himself in deep trouble. He needs November to be about Trump — and specifically about Trump’s most outrageous comments and most dangerous beliefs. That may be the only way for Biden to change the trajectory of the race and turn out the Democratic demographic groups and swing voters he needs to win.”

— 40%: The share of people who said they would vote for Donald Trump if the 2024 election was held today, compared to 35% for Joe Biden and 9% for Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., according to a WSJ poll of 1,500 registered voters (link). Trump's lead narrows in a head-to-head matchup with Biden. Some 31% of voters also said the economy had gotten better over the past two years, a rise of 10 percentage points from a WSJ poll in December.

— Key events this week include:

Monday, March 4

Federal Reserve. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker scheduled to speak.
USDA vegetable industry meeting. USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service holds a virtual meeting of the Fruit and Vegetable Industry Advisory Committee to examine the full spectrum of fruit and vegetable industry issues and provide recommendations and ideas on how the USDA can tailor programs and services to better meet the needs of the US produce industry, including consideration of recommendations pertaining to labor and production, food safety, infrastructure and sustainability, consumption and nutrition, and data reporting and analysis. Runs through Tuesday.
School Nutrition Association legislative action conference, through Tuesday.

Tuesday, March 5

Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr to deliver remarks on community reinvestment and hold a session with Community Development Financial Institutions.
Congressional trade agenda. The Washington International Trade Association (WITA) holds its 2024 Congressional Trade Agenda.

Wednesday, March 6

Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivers the first of two days of congressional testimony on the Monetary Report to Congress before the House Financials Services Committee.
CFTC. House Agriculture Committee hearing on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam testifies.
Wildlife Habitat Conservation Act. House Natural Resources Committee hearing.
Global food security. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing.
Assessing USMCA. Brookings Institution holds a U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) Forward 2024 launch event on "Assessing the State of USMCA and North American Economic Relations."
Weather forecasting. House Science, Space and Technology Environment Subcommittee hearing on "Winning in Weather: U.S. Competitiveness in Forecasting and Modeling."

Thursday, March 7

President Joe Biden delivers the State of the Union message to a joint session of Congress. Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) delivers the Republican response to the State of the Union message.
Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivers the second day of testimony on the Monetary Report to Congress before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee.
China: House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party hearing, “Growing Stakes: The Bioeconomy and American National Security.”

Friday, March 8

Women in agriculture. The Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion on "The Unjust Climate: Bridging the Gap for Women in Agriculture." USDA Deputy Secretary Xochitl Torres Small is among those appearing.

Economic Reports and Events for the Week

This week, the focus is on February's job data (Friday) and the conclusion of the fourth-quarter earnings season. Also of interest is Fed Chairman Jerome Powell testifying twice before House and Senate panels.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday will release the February employment report. Economists anticipate a gain of 200,000 nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate expected to remain steady at 3.7%. January saw unexpectedly robust growth with 353,000 new jobs added. Additionally, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, scheduled for Wednesday, is forecasted to reveal 8.9 million job openings at the end of January, slightly down from December.

Earnings reports from notable companies include GitLab on Monday, followed by Target and CrowdStrike Holdings on Tuesday. Wednesday will see reports from Brown-Forman and Campbell Soup, while Broadcom, Costco Wholesale, and Kroger will release their results on Thursday. Investors will closely monitor these reports for insights into the performance and outlook of these companies.

Monday, March 4

Motor vehicle sales
Federal Reserve. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker to speak.

Tuesday, March 5

Factory Orders
ISM Services Index
ISM non-manufacturing PMI is likely to show a reading of 53 in February, after a reading of 53.4 in the previous month.
Federal Reserve. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr to deliver remarks on community reinvestment and hold a session with Community Development Financial Institutions.

Wednesday, March 6

MBA Mortgage Applications
ADP Employment Report is likely to show private payrolls increased by 150,000 in the month of February.
JOLTS: The Labor Department's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report is expected to show jobs fell to 8.895 million in January from 9.026 million jobs in the month before.
Wholesale Inventories
Fed’s Beige Book
Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivers the first of two days of congressional testimony on the Monetary Report to Congress before the House Financials Services Committee.

Thursday, March 7

Jobless claims for the week ending March 2.
International Trade: A report from the Commerce Department is expected to show the nation registered a trade deficit of $63.4 billion in January.
Productivity and Costs
Consumer Credit
Fed Balance Sheet
Money Supply
Federal Reserve. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivers the second day of testimony on the Monetary Report to Congress before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee.
The European Central Bank will announce a monetary-policy decision.

Friday, March 8

Employment: The report from the Labor Department is expected to show that nonfarm payrolls increased by 200,000 jobs in February, following a gain of 353,000 jobs in January. Private payrolls likely added 150,000 jobs in the month of February. Unemployment rate is expected to show a reading of 3.7% for February, like January. Average hourly earnings are forecast to have increased 0.3% in February after rising 0.6% in January, on a monthly basis.

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events

Key agricultural reports come Friday with USDA spate of reports.

In the energy sector, China’s National People’s Congress will start in Beijing on Tuesday, with energy issues likely to feature.

Monday, March 4

Ag reports and events:

Export Inspections
Dairy Products
Dubai Sugar Conference, day 1
Bursa Malaysia’s palm oil conference, Kuala Lumpur, day 1