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- Robert A. Heinlein, The Moon is a Harsh Mistress.
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- Robert Frost.
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- Unknown but as seen on the inter-webs.
1. A Window of Opportunity: Addressing the Human Rights-Security Nexus in North Korea
2. Strengthening the ROK-US alliance; Freedom is not free
3. The Global Alliance of Failed States
4. South Korea unveils ‘supersonic’ answer to Pyongyang nuclear threat
5. ‘Some of them will be sent to … camps,’ some ‘may be executed’
6. South Korea Says Hamas Attack May Have Relied on North Korean Help
7. Yoon says S. Korea's defense industry is writing new history
8. N. Korea vows 'overwhelming' response over U.S. deployment of strategic assets
9. U.S. strategic bomber B-52 lands at S. Korean air base for 1st time
10. U.S. envoy hopes to work with S. Korea on efforts to hold N.K. human rights abusers accountable
11. N. Korea appears to be linked to Hamas in arms trade, other military areas: JCS
12. Lessons learned from Israel’s intelligence failure (for Korea)
13. South's military alarmed by North's apparent involvement in Hamas attack
14. Experts say Putin likely to visit Pyongyang this year
15. Has North Korea given up normalization of relations with US?
16. Ex-US ambassador calls for strengthening nuke deterrence for S. Korea amid N. Korean threats
1. A Window of Opportunity: Addressing the Human Rights-Security Nexus in North Korea
https://www.hrnkinsider.org/2023/10/a-window-of-opportunity-addressing.html?fbclid=IwAR1Mgf05B0ulRiQLfYpyawslVYS8WfEUaRxhjBjgerSVdFIu-HFzg8uWTEM
Posted by Committee for Human Rights in North Korea with No comments
By Greg Scarlatoiu, Executive Director
October 13, 2023
Photo Credit: travelview - stock.adobe.com
The following essay is adapted from virtual remarks delivered to an event hosted by HRNK Canada in Ottawa on September 28, 2023. The text has been updated to reflect recent developments.
I gained an interest in North Korean human rights because I was born and raised in communist Romania, the one communist country in Eastern Europe that was closest to North Korea. Nicolae Ceaușescu and Kim Il-sung were very close friends as well. I was on the streets in December 1989 when the Ceaușescu regime fell. I was 19 years old and a first-year student at Bucharest University majoring in English language and literature. More than a thousand of my peers, members of the same generation, died in the streets. I was old enough to be a part of that.
I then took exams for overseas scholarships and became the first Romanian ever to study in South Korea. I went to South Korea and received one year of language training, as well as a BA and MA, from Seoul National University. I worked in media broadcasting in South Korea for a few years. Then, I went to the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts, and in 2002 I relocated with my family to Washington, D.C., where I worked in international development for six years. After working at the Korea Economic Institute for three years, I have been executive director of the U.S. Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) since July 2011.
This is a very personal issue to me. Ceaușescu wanted to turn Romania into the North Korea of Eastern Europe. Then I spent ten years on a divided Korean Peninsula while studying, working, and living in South Korea. Initially, I thought like many others that North Korea would collapse because communism had collapsed in so many other places, in Eastern Europe in particular. But then during the days of the Great Famine, the days of the gonan-ui haenggun (Arduous March), I came to the realization that this was an entirely different situation. That is when I acquired this interest in North Korean human rights, which was almost 30 years ago.
North Korean Human Rights: An Overview
North Korea is a party to multiple international instruments: the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, as a UN member state; the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights; the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights; the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women; the Convention on the Rights of the Child; and the Convention on the Rights of People with Disabilities. North Korea has a constitution that includes, amazingly, human rights as well, including freedom of religion and freedom of expression. And yet, each and every human right is violated in North Korea.
The worst human rights violations happen at North Korea’s detention facilities, including its kwan-li-so political prison camps, kyo-hwa-so reeducation-through-labor camps, and also at short-term detention facilities. If they are short-term, it does not mean that human rights violations do not happen there. We conducted a study with the International Bar Association and a law firm, Debevoise & Plimpton, on short-term detention facilities. This investigation concluded that there are “reasonable grounds” to believe that crimes against humanity are occurring at short-term detention facilities also. Egregious human rights violations, especially perpetrated against women forcibly repatriated from China, happen at these facilities.
We have identified several trends under Kim Jong-un through satellite imagery analysis and North Korean escapee testimony. Number one, some detention facilities that were close to the border with China have been shut down and detainees were moved inland. Detention facilities inland have expanded. Camp 25 is one such example. Second, women have taken the brunt of human rights abuse. During and after the Arduous March, the gonan-ui haenggun, women assumed primary responsibility for the survival of their families. They are the ones who go to the jangmadang, the market; the nongmin sijang, the farmers’ market; or the amsijang, the black market. They are the main market agents. They are the ones who are arrested and punished, sometimes tortured or imprisoned, for perceived wrongdoing at the markets.
Women also often cross the border into China without official approval. The goal is to end up in a third country and then in South Korea or other countries. They are in search of economic opportunity. We have a serious problem with China when it comes to North Korean refugees. China is a party to the 1951 Convention Concerning the Status of Refugees and the 1967 additional protocol. These North Korean refugees in China, eighty percent of whom are women, are returned to North Korea, where they are tortured, imprisoned, and sometimes killed. We have had terrible reports of forced abortions performed on women with children of Chinese men—infanticide. People of religious faith are particularly in danger.
According to the 1951 UN Refugee Convention, if individuals return to a place where they face a credible fear of persecution, they qualify to have access to the process leading to acquiring political refugee status. There are at least 2,000 North Korean refugees in detention in China awaiting forcible repatriation now that North Korea is gradually opening its borders post-COVID, and there are reports from reliable sources that some of these refugees may already have been sent back to North Korea. There are many human rights groups that are doing their best to prevent the forcible repatriation of North Korean refugees.
The Human Rights-Security Nexus
The February 2014 report of the UN Commission of Inquiry on human rights in North Korea recommended the referral of the North Korean regime and its leadership to the International Criminal Court (ICC). North Korea is not a party to the 2002 Rome Statute that established the ICC, so it would take a referral by the UN Security Council.
The UN Security Council is deeply divided. There are the status quo powers amongst the five permanent (P5) members of the Security Council: the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. On the other hand, there are the revisionist powers, Russia and China. We all know the abomination of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the tremendous human suffering that this invasion has caused in Ukraine. A veto by a P5 member can block the referral, and it is practically certain that China or Russia would veto the referral of the North Korean case to the ICC.
If we look at recent history, there have been special tribunals such as the ICTY—the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia. Rwanda was another precedent. In each case, it required a resolution of the UN Security Council. Even if it is difficult, it does not mean we should give up. We should press for the referral. Every time China vetoes an attempt to refer Kim Jong-un to the ICC, it paints itself into a corner as a P5 member that aids and abets a regime that commits crimes against humanity. I think that the role of civil society is very important here. Civil society is very creative. Many of us have tried a lot of different ways and means, including mock trials. I think eventually that creative solutions will come from civil society.
North Korea’s human rights violations and crimes against humanity threaten international peace and security. There is a clear security-human rights nexus. Why? For two main reasons. Reason number one: the North Korean regime oppresses and exploits its own people at home and abroad to procure the resources it needs to develop its nuclear program. Reason number two: what the United States, Canada, and the international community want is CVID—complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization. How can one have CVID if there is no access to the political prison camps? One camp in particular comes to mind. Camp 16 is very close to the nuclear test facilities at Punggye-ri. We are just about to publish a very interesting report that establishes a connection between the two facilities.
North Korean human rights violations threaten international peace and security because they are instrumentalized by the Kim regime to procure the resources it needs to develop its nuclear program. Since the regime does not admit to the existence of these camps, there is also the possibility of concealing equipment, for example. CVID is impossible without access to the political prison camps.
The North Korean Human Rights Act in the United States
We have a problem with the North Korean Human Rights Act in the United States. It has not been reauthorized yet. S. 4216 was introduced by Congresswoman Young Kim on the House side and by Senator Marco Rubio on the Senate side. It has not passed so far, and it is very unlikely that it will pass by the end of this month. The new reauthorized version would authorize the appropriation of $10 million each year. Initially, it was from 2023 to 2027. We hope the reauthorization will pass. It will probably be 2024 to 2028, $10 million each year for ongoing programs managed by the U.S. State Department, USAID, and the U.S. Agency for Global Media to improve access to information in North Korea, to promote democracy and human rights, and provide humanitarian assistance to North Korean refugees.
What is my assessment of the bill so far? In terms of documentation of North Korean human rights abuses supported by the U.S. State Department—the Bureau for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor in particular—and the National Endowment for Democracy, the record is positive. We know much more about the North Korean human rights situation through the efforts of such agencies and organizations.
In the information field, there are groups that have been quite successful. There is a North Korean information firewall. Eventually, that information firewall will fall. Things were very difficult under COVID. North Korea cracked down very hard on information coming in from the outside world, those attempting to distribute such information, and those attempting to access such information. It is a difficult environment, and now we have a gradual opening of the border. We will see what impact that has on information.
In terms of the refugee element, we have not done too well. The number of North Korean refugees that have resettled in the United States after requesting asylum is very low, just about 240. There are many factors behind this. The U.S. debriefing process takes longer than the South Korean debriefing process. On the other hand, throughout their lives, they have been taught that the United States is the greatest enemy of Korea, and it is very difficult to get over this psychological obstacle.
In South Korea, the same language is spoken, and there are resettlement allowances and vocational training. The system is not perfect, but the people and the government have tried hard to assist North Korean refugees. Many of them have had trouble. It is a very different society, after all. This tells us that there is a need for information enhancing the understanding of the United States and what the United States stands for as we approach North Korean refugees who are in transit in third countries.
The North Korean Human Rights Act in South Korea
South Korea has enacted a North Korean Human Rights Act of its own, but it has not been fully implemented. The problem is with the Human Rights Foundation because of disagreement between the two sides of the aisle. This foundation has not become operational yet. To deal with this issue, the previous unification minister, Minister Kwon Young-se, established a Human Rights Promotion Committee with fifteen outstanding individuals with expertise in North Korean human rights.
There is disagreement over the board membership of the foundation. This is the fundamental issue. According to the law, the unification minister is tasked with nominating two candidates for the board of directors. The ruling party and the opposition parties are charged with nominating five candidates each. Due to disagreement between the two main political parties, no one has been appointed to the foundation’s inaugural board in the past seven years.
If you ask me whether there will be some movement and positive change here, the elections next April will likely be a decisive factor in the operation of the Human Rights Foundation. The unfortunate thing is that human rights is being politicized. Human rights in general and human rights in North Korea should not be politicized in democratic countries, such as the United States, Canada, or South Korea.
Human Rights Up Front: A Window of Opportunity
Canada has been a great champion of human rights in general and human rights in North Korea in particular. I think that the establishment of a Canadian special envoy for North Korean human rights would be a very important step. Coordination will be very important moving ahead. There could be political shifts in South Korea a couple of years from now, so we have a very narrow window of opportunity to coordinate on and address North Korean human rights.
President Joe Biden, President Yoon Suk-yeol, and Prime Minister Kishida had a very good meeting at Camp David. They mentioned human rights, but it is not necessarily an area where there is a coherent strategy. The promoters of North Korean human rights on the international scene and at the UN—the United States, South Korea, the European Union, Canada, and Japan—can definitely achieve even better coordination if Canada passes a North Korean human rights act, and in particular if it creates a special envoy position.
The United States passed a North Korean Human Rights Act in 2004, and others—including South Korea—have passed such acts also. Human rights violations in North Korea will continue unless these laws become part of a coherent “human rights up front” policy that elevates human rights to a position comparable to that of political, security, and military issues. For more than 30 years, human rights has been sacrificed on the altar of political, military, and security issues. As I mentioned earlier, there is a clear security-human rights nexus when it comes to North Korea. Without addressing human rights, it is impossible to resolve the security issues.
Categories: Human Rights, North Korea, North Korean Human Rights Act, South Korea, United States
2. Strengthening the ROK-US alliance; Freedom is not free
This is a strong critique of the Korean military and society.
Excerpt:
The Korean public must make a decision. The security problem is not a military problem it is a Korean societal issue and can only be solved by the Korean people.
Strengthening the ROK-US alliance; Freedom is not free
The Korea Times · October 15, 2023
By Chun In-bum
The Yoon Suk Yeol administration has been celebrating the 70th anniversary of the ROK-U.S. alliance. The alliance is considered to have begun with the signing of the Mutual Defense Treaty between the United States and the Republic of Korea on Oct. 1, 1953, in Washington D.C. and became effective on Nov. 18, 1954. The most powerful nation in the entire world, at that time, had agreed to a mutual defense treaty with a poor and devastated nation.
The ROK-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty (ROKUS MDT) was a concession that was provided to Korea in exchange for Korea not to sabotage the armistice process between the United Nations' forces and the communists. Additionally, Korea was promised long-term economic assistance which started with a $200 million package, the U.S. agreed to train and fund additional ROK military combat divisions to a total of 12 units and security consultation between Korea and the U.S. was to be maintained.
In 1955, more than 50 percent of the South Korean government budget came from U.S. aid but U.S. policy was only to feed the Korean people. It was up to the Koreans to lay a plan for the future and the Koreans spent 10 percent of their national budget on education. This was possible because the United States maintained American soldiers on the Korean Peninsula. Therefore at the core of the ROK-U.S. alliance is the military relationship between Korea and the United States.
The 2007 free trade agreement between the two nations, the 2023 Washington declaration on extended deterrence, and the popularity of K-pop in the U.S. are great examples of how the relationship has evolved but all of this was possible because of the American men and women in uniform who served in Korea along with Korean armed forces. The military relationship between the U.S. and Korean soldiers extended outside of the Korean peninsula during the Vietnam War where nearly half a million South Korean soldiers fought with American soldiers for more than seven years. Korean soldiers were in Iraq and Afghanistan and, at one point during the occupation in Iraq, Korean troops were the third largest contingent in support of the U.S. effort.
Having recognized the fact that the ROK-U.S. military relationship is at the core of the alliance we must take a look at the challenges that their militaries face today despite the great initiatives by the political leaders of both the U.S. and Korea. First, the South Korean military is not trained to standards. This is because the Korean military leadership is incapable of adjusting to the societal shifts and pressures coming from liberal Korean social and political initiatives. This failure, in turn, results in the Korean military’s inability to gain the support of the Korean public and without public support one cannot conduct the necessary training that is vital for effective security.
The Korean public must awaken to the fact that everyone must sacrifice and do their part for national security. We must pay taxes, serve in the military and make sacrifices. People are entitled to compensation but recent demands for fairness have prevented live fire training, nighttime operations and, unless a military commander is willing to risk his career, he cannot train. If the Korean military is not trained and ready we cannot be reliable allies to the United States let alone defend ourselves. The Korean public must make a decision. The security problem is not a military problem it is a Korean societal issue and can only be solved by the Korean people.
As Korean society debates its options, the Korean military must also make drastic changes to the way it thinks and its preparedness. Our efforts for denuclearization have failed and North Korea has nuclear weapons. North Korea has shunned our efforts for peace and threatens our peace and security with new conventional military capabilities with support from Russian President Vladimir Putin. China would rather have a nuclear-armed North Korea next to its borders than a unified Korea with democratic values and free ideas. All this puts Kim Jong-Un in a better position to challenge South Korea.
North Korea will do everything it can to force the withdrawal of U.S. troops in Korea because they believe that as long as there are American soldiers in Korea they cannot force their will on the South. The U.S. has its national interests to stay in Korea but South Korea must do its part to be ready. Not because we cannot or should not rely on the United States or because we cannot trust the U.S. but because it is in Korea’s best interests and because it is the right thing to do.
There are two simple truths to peace: If you want peace, prepare for war and freedom is not free.
Chun In-bum (truechun@naver.com) served as a lieutenant general of the ROK Army and commander of Special Forces Korea.
The Korea Times · October 15, 2023
3. The Global Alliance of Failed States
The Global Alliance of Failed States
An alliance of failed states is threatening to disrupt the international order, but do they have the economic power or bonds of trust to challenge the free world?
cepa.org · by Walter Clemens · October 13, 2023
The visit of North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un to Russia, and the possible visit of Vladimir Putin to Pyongyang, represent the top layer of a global partnership of failed states that have been bound more closely together since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Unlike Haiti or some African countries, the governments of Russia and North Korea are still very much in control of nearly everything inside their borders. So why regard them as “failed states?” The answer is that they and their partners fail to provide the basics for human development and mutual trust.
The UN Human Development Index (HDI) ranks countries by their physical health (life expectancy), education (years of schooling), and material well-being (GDP per capita). The index is not perfect, but it provides the best single picture of global trends. By all these measures, Switzerland and Norway came out on top. Hong Kong, before China’s takeover, ranked fourth in the world on the HDI, while recent decades saw Canada fall to 15th and the USA to 21st.
A measure of mutual trust can be found in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). Here too, Scandinavia ranks highest, joined by New Zealand and Singapore. Canada ranks 14th and the USA 24th.
, Russia ranked 52nd on the HDI, its life expectancy falling to 69 years, and its GDP per capita at $22,000. Basic honesty in Russia, as measured by the CPI in 2022, was among the lowest anywhere — 137th out of 180 countries on the index.
Vladimir Putin’s new comrades in North Korea hide most measures of human development, but millions of North Koreans starved to death in the 1990s and many are short of food in 2023. Still, the UN reports that North Korea’s life expectancy is higher than Russia’s at 73.3.
North Korea’s CPI, however, rates the DPRK at 171st, very nearly the worst in the world. Various measures of people’s power say that the DPRK is the least free country anywhere, although Putin appears indifferent to these numbers as long as Kim Jong Un can trade him ammunition for technology and food.
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Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping claim to be best friends, but the putative superpower ranks much lower on the HDI than Russia – at 79 in the world, three places below Russia’s drone suppliers in Iran (76) and worse than Belarus (at 60).
China’s life expectancy, however, at 78.2 years is eight years higher than Russia’s and about four years higher than Iran’s. China’s CPI score is also much better than Russia’s — 65th in the world versus 137th. Per capita income in China was $17,500 in 2017, when these numbers were gathered, compared with $22,200 in Russia (at least in major cities). By 2023, however, Chinese incomes have gone up and Russians’ down.
Nine more failed states tend to vote with Russia at the United Nations. They include Cuba (HDI ranking 83), South Africa (109), Vietnam (115), Venezuela (120), India (132), Laos (140), Cambodia (146), Syria (150), and Mali (186). India is included in this list because, while it is becoming a major power in outer space, it does poorly by its own people.
How solid is this failed state partnership? China and Russia have, after all, voted for UN sanctions on North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs.
The ostensible solidarity between Russia and China could also easily return to the mutual hostility that prevailed for most of the last 500 years, and while India and China now show up at the same conferences (although not always) but are virtually at war in the Himalayas.
Professor Leif Eric-Easley, at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, was probably correct when he told the New York Times: “Trust is so low among Russia, North Korea, and China that a real alliance of the three isn’t credible or sustainable.”
The total population of these failed states makes up well over half of humanity. If their goods and services are combined, however, they produce no more than one-quarter of the global GDP. The United States and its European and Asian partners, generate more than half of the world’s GDP. If major Latin American countries were included, the weight of free world economic power would be still higher.
Even if the failed states could trust each other enough to form an effective alliance, since most forms of hard and soft power depend on economic strength, the free world is still far ahead.
Walter Clemens is an Associate at Harvard University Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Boston University. HBlood Debts: What Putin and Xi Owe Their Victims (Westphalia, July 2023).
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.
Europe's Edge
CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America.
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cepa.org · by Walter Clemens · October 13, 2023
4. South Korea unveils ‘supersonic’ answer to Pyongyang nuclear threat
South Korea unveils ‘supersonic’ answer to Pyongyang nuclear threat
The new homegrown fighter jet KF-21 brings S Korea closer to its goal for 5% of global arms exports.
By Lee Jeong-Ho
2023.10.16
Seoul, South Korea
rfa.org
With Kim Jong Un escalating nuclear threats from the North, South Korea has found a cost-effective solution: its homegrown fighter jets.
The country unveiled its first domestically-produced supersonic fighter jet, the KF-21, also known as the Boramae, to the public at the Seoul Airbase on Tuesday, joining an elite group of nations to demonstrate such technology. The KF-21 could boost the allies’ deterrence capability against the likes of North Korea.
The aircraft, introduced at the Seoul International Aerospace & Defense Exhibition (ADEX) 2023, was developed by Korea Aerospace Industries, and set for mass production in 2026. The homegrown project is a part of a broader plan to strengthen South Korea’s resilience in the face of increasingly intrusive neighbors that include North Korea and China.
“We define the defense industry as a ‘national strategic industry,’ crucial for both security and the economy,” South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol said in a speech at the Seoul Airbase.
“We are committed to cultivating an environment that fosters the continued growth of the defense industry, bolstering its global standing,” he said, adding that the United States ally will aim to “establish a collaborative defense and security framework” among the like-minded nations.
The KF-21 offers a cheaper option to Lockheed Martin Corp.’s F-35 Lightning II, serving both South Korea’s own military needs and the international market. As one of the U.S.’s key security allies, Seoul has already purchased F-35s.
Indonesia has agreed to pay 20% of the US$6.7 billion project cost for the KF-21. The two countries agreed in 2014 to work together to make the next generation jet, even though at one point after that, Jakarta threatened to exit from the project.
South Korea’s unveiling of the KF-21 – with comparable features to the F-35 – may enhance the military preparedness of the U.S. and its allies in Asia, broadening the spectrum of defense capabilities at a lower cost.
South Korea has been actively modernizing its military capabilities: it has achieved milestones like successfully launching its first ballistic missile from a submarine and propelling its inaugural rocket to advance its domestic space program.
Its arms exports last year soared to an unprecedented US$17.3 billion, according to a statement from the Presidential Office on Tuesday. This surge was attributed to substantial contracts, encompassing the supply of K2 tanks, K-9 self-propelled howitzers, FA-50 light attack aircraft, and the Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, South Korea is the ninth biggest global arms exporter from 2018 to 2022. Its growth rate of 74% over the previous five years was one of the swiftest in the world.
Seoul has set an ambitious target to take a five percent share of the global arms export market by 2027, aiming to elevate its status to the world’s fourth-largest defense exporter.
Edited by Elaine Chan and Taejun Kang.
rfa.org
5. ‘Some of them will be sent to … camps,’ some ‘may be executed’
Refugees from north Korea.
‘Some of them will be sent to … camps,’ some ‘may be executed’
Defector-turned-lawmaker visits Washington to raise issue of China’s repatriation of North Koreans
By Park Jaewoo for RFA Korean
2023.10.16
rfa.org
North Koreans who have escaped to China need help to avoid being sent back against their will, and pressure on Beijing from South Korea alone is not enough, a former North Korean diplomat told Radio Free Asia.
“It is important to send a strong message of international unity to prevent the Chinese authorities from forcibly repatriating [them],” said Thae Yong-ho, who is now a member of the South Korean National Assembly. “It is difficult to stop it with only the demands of the South Korean government.”
The remarks come a week after Beijing secretly repatriated more than 500 North Koreans on Oct. 9, the day after the conclusion of the Asian Games in Hangzhou, China.
Thae, who in 2016 defected with his family to the South while serving as Pyongyang’s deputy ambassador to the United Kingdom, is visiting Washington, D.C. to inspect the South Korean Embassy in his role as a lawmaker representing Seoul’s wealthy Gangnam district.
He is scheduled to meet with U.S. State Department officials and members of Congress to discuss the forced repatriation issue.
A bus carrying escapees from North Korea crosses the bridge to North Korea’s Sinuiju from China’s Dandong on Aug. 29, 2023. Credit: Kim Ji Eun/RFA
Thae said that Seoul had been repeatedly trying to raise the issue with Beijing.
“Foreign Minister Park Jin and Unification Minister Kim Young-ho have both publicly requested that China stop repatriating North Koreans, ” said Thae. “Also, during the Hangzhou Asian Games, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo visited China and met with President Xi Jinping, demanding that North Koreans not be repatriated.”
Even with the public requests and off-the-record pleas, China continues to justify forced repatriation by claiming that North Korean escapees in China are “illegal displaced persons” rather than refugees.
More than words
The distinction is not simply an issue of semantics. If escapees are not refugees, then China argues it is not bound to protect them under the U.N. Refugee Convention and as illegal immigrants, the principle of non-refoulement does not apply to them.
Beijing maintains that it must repatriate North Koreans who fled the country because it is bound by two agreements it has with Pyongyang, the 1960 PRC-DPRK Escaped Criminals Reciprocal Extradition Treaty and the 1986 Mutual Cooperation Protocol for the Work of Maintaining National Security and Social Order and the Border Areas.
If they are made to return to North Korea, many escapees will face a grim fate, Thae said.
“Some of them will be sent to concentration camps for [at least] several months of detention and forced labor, and if they are found to have tried to escape North Korea and go to South Korea, they may be executed,” Thae said.
Thae recalled his own fears of forced repatriation at the time when he decided to defect.
“At the time, I was also very worried that some unexpected variable might arise in the process of defecting from North Korea,” he said. “People still detained in detention facilities in China are probably very anxious and worried that they will be forcibly repatriated to North Korea.
During his U.S. trip, Thae has plans to meet with American officials to request that they join their voices in opposition against forced repatriation of North Koreans in China.
“We plan to deliver a letter to President Biden appealing to the U.S. government to speak up [on this issue],” said Thae. “We plan to deliver it to the lawmakers [Monday]. There should be a campaign nationwide and globally calling for an end to forced repatriations."
Thae attended an event hosted by human rights groups in front of the White House on Monday afternoon to raise awareness about the issue.
New US Envoy
On Friday, Washington swore in Julie Turner as its special envoy for North Korea Human Rights, ending a six-year vacancy for the position.
She arrived in Seoul on Monday for a three-day visit. After meeting with Foreign Minister Park, the two sides promised to work together to improve North Korean human rights.
Addressing a forum of rights activists and North Korean escapees in South Korea, Turner acknowledged that the United States often brings up the issue of forced repatriations in discussions with Beijing.
“So I again hope that the PRC will not [repatriate North Koreans] and we will continue to remind them of their international obligations, but I can't say that I believe that they will not," she said.
Julie Turner, the United States’ new special envoy for North Korea Human Rights, arrived in Seoul on Monday for a three-day visit. Credit: U.S. Department of State
Korean HelpThae said that he was regretful that he and Turner missed each other as his trip to the U.S. coincided with her trip to Korea.
“We plan to meet at an early date and discuss specific ways to help the U.S. speak out more for North Korean human rights issues in the international community and what strategies can be used to solve North Korean human rights issues and stop forced repatriation," he said.
Translated by Eugene Whong. Edited by Eugene Whong and Malcolm Foster.
rfa.org
6. South Korea Says Hamas Attack May Have Relied on North Korean Help
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-hamas-war-gaza-palestinians/card/south-korea-says-hamas-attack-may-have-relied-on-north-korean-help-RZnO5KooXp1L2XGOUxeT?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1
Israel-Hamas War Intensifies: Biden to Visit Israel as U.S. Struggles to Get Americans Out of Gaza
The U.S. weighs sending 2,000 noncombat troops to support Israel as a push by the U.S. and Egypt to open Gaza’s border crossing with Egypt stalls.
Last Updated:
Oct. 17, 2023 at 7:34 AM EDT
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South Korea Says Hamas Attack May Have Relied on North Korean Help
By
Dasl Yoon
South Korea’s military said the Hamas attacks on Israel may have used rocket-propelled grenades and 122mm artillery shells supplied by North Korea, claims the Kim Jong Un regime had earlier dismissed as a “groundless and false rumor.”
The South Korean analysis, detailed at a Tuesday briefing, relied on media images and video of the Hamas attacks. South Korea’s military said it had identified what it believed were various North Korean weapons. The Kim Jong Un regime has been previously linked to arms deals in the Middle East, especially with Iran and Syria. Pyongyang’s state media has supported Hamas and called Israel’s response “ceaseless criminal actions.”
7. Yoon says S. Korea's defense industry is writing new history
Ahem....
A partner in the Arsenal of Democracy.
Yoon says S. Korea's defense industry is writing new history | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Han-joo · October 17, 2023
SEOUL, Oct. 17 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol pledged on Tuesday to enhance the competitiveness of the country's defense industry, saying that it is writing new history in a rags-to-riches narrative.
Yoon made the remarks during the opening ceremony of the Seoul International Aerospace & Defense Exhibition (ADEX) 2023 at Seoul Air Base in Seongnam, just south of Seoul. The event will run for six days until Sunday.
This year's ADEX is set to bring together approximately 550 companies from 35 countries and is expected to draw around 30,000 visitors, including over 114 military and defense officials from 55 countries, making it the largest-ever edition of this biennial event, which was first launched in 1996.
"The country that once depended on assistance and imports has now leaped to the level of independently producing state-of-the-art fighter jets and exporting them," Yoon said, adding that the nation's defense industry is writing new history.
Last year, South Korea's arms exports hit a record high of 22.9 trillion won (US$17.9 billion), according to Morgan Stanley, as it signed major contracts with Poland to supply K2 tanks, K-9 self-propelled howitzers, FA-50 light attack aircraft and Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers.
"The defense industry is a strategic national industry that supports national defense and the economy," Yoon said, adding that the government aims to create an ecosystem that enhances global competitiveness.
Yoon also highlighted that this year's ADEX will feature the participation of U.S. forces, demonstrating the overwhelming capabilities of the South Korea-U.S. alliance.
South Korea's homegrown KF-21 fighter jet will conduct a demonstration flight in its public debut, which will be joined by U.S. military aircraft, including the F-22 stealth jet, F-16 fighter jet, T-50 trainer jet and U-2 spy plane, to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the bilateral alliance this year.
Boosting the competitiveness of arms exports has been one of the key objectives of the Yoon administration.
Earlier this year, the government established a public-private consultative body that brings together the presidential National Security Office, the defense, foreign and industry ministries, the Defense Acquisition Program Administration, and defense companies to discuss strategies for boosting arms exports.
Alongside the defense industry, Yoon also emphasized the significance of aerospace technology and artificial intelligence (AI) technology, which could be crucial in future battlefields.
"Our government actively supports the aerospace industry that will lead the new space era, with the goal of becoming one of the world's top five space technology nations," Yoon said.
Yoon also highlighted his administration's preparations to launch a state aerospace agency, one of his key campaign promises.
"The public and private sectors will closely collaborate to drive the advancement of the aerospace industry, with the newly established aerospace agency at its core," Yoon said.
President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers a congratulatory speech at the opening ceremony of the Seoul International Aerospace & Defense Exhibition 2023 at Seoul Air Base in Seongnam, south of Seoul, on Oct. 17, 2023. (Yonhap)
khj@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Han-joo · October 17, 2023
8. N. Korea vows 'overwhelming' response over U.S. deployment of strategic assets
Show us what you have Mr. Kim.
N. Korea vows 'overwhelming' response over U.S. deployment of strategic assets | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · October 17, 2023
By Lee Minji
SEOUL, Oct. 17 (Yonhap) -- North Korea on Tuesday lambasted the recent deployment of strategic assets by the United States to the Korean Peninsula and vowed to counter it with an "overwhelming and decisive response strategy."
The nuclear-powered USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier arrived at the southeastern port city of Busan on Thursday for a five-day visit following trilateral naval drills involving the U.S., South Korea and Japan. A U.S. nuclear-capable B-52 bomber also plans to land at a South Korean air base this week.
"The U.S. nuclear racket going far beyond the danger line has been intensively revealed in the Korean Peninsula," Kim Tong-myong, a researcher at the North's Society for International Politics Study, said in a statement carried by the Korean Central News Agency.
Noting that the U.S. has staged combined drills and deployed strategic assets to "the biggest hotspot in the world," Kim said such "dangerous nuclear provocations" are bringing the world closer to a "thermonuclear zone."
The U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan enters a naval base in the southeastern port city of Busan on Oct. 12, 2023, on the occasion of the 70th anniversary of the South Korea-U.S. alliance, in the photo provided by Yonhap News TV. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
In a separate statement, a researcher at the North's foreign ministry accused the U.S. of using a recent congressional report highlighting the risks of the North's nuclear arsenal as a means to make a preemptive nuclear strike against North Korea easier.
In its final report issued last week, the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the U.S. said the North is "on pace" to deploy sufficient nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles to overcome the U.S. missile defense and may be preparing for a nuclear test to enable tactical nuclear operations.
"It is working hard to highlight the defensive nature, but the world recognizes that the U.S. mainland missile defense system is, in essence, a means for carrying out a nuclear war of aggression," said Kim Kwang-myong, the researcher at the North's Institute for Disarmament and Peace.
Claiming that the U.S. has "deliberately escalated the situation by frequently dispatching nuclear strategic assets" to Northeast Asia, Kim said the North will counter attempts by "hostile forces" for a "nuclear war" with an "overwhelming and decisive response strategy."
"The reality urgently requires the DPRK, which is standing in confrontation with the U.S. imperialism, the most aggressive nuclear war criminal force, to bolster up its self-defensive military capabilities for deterring a nuclear war both in quality and quantity and in a rapid way."
The statements come as the North has been seeking to bolster its nuclear arsenal. In September, the North amended the constitution to enshrine a nuclear force-building policy, a year after it enacted a new nuclear law authorizing the preemptive use of nuclear arms, calling its status as a nuclear state "irreversible."
mlee@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · October 17, 2023
9. U.S. strategic bomber B-52 lands at S. Korean air base for 1st time
Of course there is a BUFF parked at the Korean War Memorial across the street from the Yongsan Presidential offices.
U.S. strategic bomber B-52 lands at S. Korean air base for 1st time | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · October 17, 2023
SEOUL, Oct. 17 (Yonhap) -- A U.S. strategic bomber B-52 landed in South Korea for the first time Tuesday, after it staged a commemorative flight over a biennial defense trade show in the country and joint air drills with South Korean stealth fighter jets.
The U.S. nuclear-capable bomber landed at an air base in Cheongju, 112 kilometers southeast of Seoul, after flying over Seoul Air Base in Seongnam, just south of the capital, to mark the opening of the six-day Seoul International Aerospace & Defense Exhibition 2023.
Although the B-52s -- considered a key U.S. strategic asset -- have previously been deployed over the Korean Peninsula for joint air drills with the South Korean Air Force, it marked the first time the bomber landed at an air base in the country.
A U.S. B-52 strategic bomber lands at an air base in Cheongju, 112 kilometers southeast of Seoul, on Oct. 17, 2023. (Yonhap)
Prior to the commemorative flight, the aircraft also took part in a combined air exercise over the peninsula with South Korean F-35A fighters, according to the South's Air Force.
"This exercise once again demonstrated the South Korean and U.S. Air Forces' outstanding combined operational capabilities and the U.S.' commitment to extended deterrence for the defense of the Republic of Korea," the armed service said, referring to South Korea by its official name.
Extended deterrence refers to the U.S. commitment to defending an ally using all of its military capabilities, including nuclear weapons.
In April, the United States pledged to enhance the "regular visibility" of strategic assets on the peninsula as part of efforts to deter North Korea's military threats in a joint declaration issued by President Yoon Suk Yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden during their summit in Washington.
A U.S. B-52 strategic bomber takes part in a combined air exercise with South Korean F-35A fighter jets over the Korean Peninsula on Oct. 17, 2023, in this photo provided by South Korea's Air Force. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · October 17, 2023
10. U.S. envoy hopes to work with S. Korea on efforts to hold N.K. human rights abusers accountable
Yes, we need an alliance and international human rights upfront approach.
U.S. envoy hopes to work with S. Korea on efforts to hold N.K. human rights abusers accountable | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · October 17, 2023
By Lee Minji
SEOUL, Oct. 17 (Yonhap) -- The new U.S. special envoy for North Korean human rights said Tuesday she would like to cooperate with South Korea's unification ministry on holding accountable those responsible for Pyongyang's "egregious" human rights record.
Ambassador Julie Turner, who is on a three-day visit to South Korea, made the remarks during her meeting with Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho, Seoul's point man on North Korea.
"North Korea's human rights record remains amongst the worst in the world," Turner said. "I very much look forward to working with your ministry, in particular to pursue accountability for those responsible for North Korea's egregious human rights record."
Turner's visit came amid renewed concerns over the forced repatriation of North Korean defectors following a news report that hundreds of North Korean defectors in China's Northeastern provinces were sent back to their repressive home country against their will last week.
Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho (R) hold talks with U.S. special envoy for North Korean human rights, Julie Turner, at the unification ministry on Oct. 17, 2023. (Yonhap)
Expressing Seoul's concerns over the issue, the unification minister called on the United States and the international community to help resolve such problems in a "fundamental" manner.
"The South Korean government has continuously emphasized to the relevant government that forced repatriation, against one's free will, should never happen," Kim said, reaffirming Seoul's efforts to ensure the safety of overseas defectors in countries including China.
Turner said the U.S. shares Seoul's concerns over last week's reported repatriation and is committed to helping provide protection and accepting North Korean refugees.
"We have much work to do together to help improve and make concrete change to help promote the welfare of the North Korean people," she said.
Turner was officially sworn in Friday, ending more than six years of vacancy in the post.
Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho (R) and U.S. special envoy for North Korean human rights, Julie Turner, shake hands ahead of their meeting at the ministry on Oct. 17, 2023. (Yonhap)
mlee@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · October 17, 2023
11. N. Korea appears to be linked to Hamas in arms trade, other military areas: JCS
"Bang - 122"
N. Korea appears to be linked to Hamas in arms trade, other military areas: JCS | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · October 17, 2023
By Kim Eun-jung
SEOUL, Oct. 17 (Yonhap) -- North Korea appears to be linked to the Hamas militant group in the arms trade and other military fields, and could use tactics similar to those used against Israel for a surprise attack on South Korea, a senior official at Seoul's military said Tuesday.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) made the assessment after analyzing Hamas' unprecedented attacks on Oct. 7, which blindsided Israel by firing over 5,000 rockets to bypass its Iron Dome defense system, paralyzing the early warning system and breaching the Israeli border with paragliders in the early stage of the conflict.
"Hamas is believed to be directly or indirectly linked to North Korea in various areas, such as the weapons trade, tactical guidance and training. There is a possibility that North Korea could use Hamas' attack methods for a surprise invasion of South Korea," a senior JCS official told reporters on background, asking not to be named.
In this photo released by Reuters, Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system intercepts incoming rockets from the Gaza Strip fired by the Palestinian militant group Hamas on Oct. 15, 2023. (Yonhap)
Radio Free Asia, a Washington-based media outlet, earlier reported on the suspected use of North Korean weapons by Hamas fighters, citing a video featuring one of the fighters holding what resembles an F-7 rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) launcher manufactured in the North.
The military official said the F-7s, a type of high-explosive fragmentation rocket, appear to be another name for the RPG-7 produced in North Korea, without specifying whether they were provided directly to Hamas or through transactions involving other countries.
The JCS assumed the 122 mm artillery shells found near the Israeli border were exported from North Korea, considering they had the marking "Bang-122," the same as ammunition used in North Korea's artillery attacks.
"This suggests that North Korea continues to export various weapons to Middle Eastern countries and armed groups," the official said.
Pyongyang has denied allegations that its weapons were used by Hamas in the attack against Israel as "a groundless and false rumor," saying the claim was part of Washington's bid to divert the blame for the conflict from itself.
Hamas' infiltration into the Israeli territory through unconventional means, such as paragliders and drones, showed similar patterns employed by the North in the past, the JCS official said, raising speculation over Pyongyang's links to the Palestinian militant group.
As South Korea has deployed an advanced border surveillance system on front-line troops over the past decade, Pyongyang has bolstered training for airborne infiltration using paragliders.
In December 2016, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un publicly guided the demonstration of the paragliders targeting the then presidential compound Cheong Wa Dae, speculating that the North may have passed on infiltration tactics to Hamas.
Learning lessons from the conflict in the Middle East, the JCS vowed to step up coordination with the United States to effectively operate the combined surveillance assets to detect unusual signs from the North and bolster defense capabilities against its long-range artillery and drone strikes.
ejkim@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · October 17, 2023
12. Lessons learned from Israel’s intelligence failure (for Korea)
Excerpts:
Observing the situation in Israel, the South Korean government plans to inspect and strengthen Humint, focusing on key bases such as North Korea's missile launch sites and North Korean allies such as Iran. It is encouraging to see that intelligence authorities recognize the need to strengthen humints against North Korea.
There have been countless cases in which critical information, including abrupt changes in North Korean leadership, has been confirmed through Humint. It takes at least five years to build an effective humint network. It is an unspoken rule among US intelligence authorities to leave humint-related resources intact even if the government has been changed. It is risky to make changes to humint after years of building efforts on the grounds of government change or strengthening cooperation with North Korea. As the saying goes, you should not tear down the dam you worked so hard to build.
Lessons learned from Israel’s intelligence failure
donga.com
Posted October. 17, 2023 08:08,
Updated October. 17, 2023 08:08
Lessons learned from Israel’s intelligence failure. October. 17, 2023 08:08. .
“You are keeping your eyes closed when they should be wide open. Is this correct?”
It was in 2010 when a key official at the presidential office during President Lee Myeong-bak’s term summoned administration staff and criticized them for their actions. Back then, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s health conditions were critical and his successor Kim Jong Un had increased public exposure. There was a strong need to concentrate intelligence capabilities on North Korea, but critical reports to the president by intelligence agencies on North Korean key leaders had continued to be off. Hence, they were criticized by senior officials. Lee, whom Dong-A Ilbo met personally recently, recalled that “North Korean HUMINT (human intelligence) has degraded during President Kim Dae-jung and President Roh Moo-hyun. This has proved to be a weak point when we could not leverage HUMINT when it was most needed.”
The head of the National Intelligence Agency was renamed for the first time since the launch of the Yoon administration. Top officials at the NIA were also replaced. In the process, investigations were made into how the agency operated during President Moon’s term. The prevailing view was that intelligence gathering capabilities on North Korea had noticeably weakened, particularly towards HUMINT. “Intelligence gathering is critical to strengthening our deterrence against North Korea, but during President Moon Jae-in administration there was too much focus on North Korean aid. We are working on correcting this,” said a senior government official.
The importance of intelligence has surfaced again with the recent attack by the Palestinian armed group Hamas against Israel. Israel’s national intelligence agency Mossad, considered one of the best in the world, was caught off guard as it failed to detect Hamas's surprise attack. One of the primary reasons behind this failure is a malfunction of HUMINT capabilities. That is why we are seeing growing voices of concern that the government should strengthen its humint capabilities against North Korea.
“No matter how advanced SIGINT (signal intelligence) or IMINT (image intelligence) becomes, Humint should not be overlooked,” stressed an intelligence agency official. Despite technological advancements improving the resolution of photos and boosting the ability to eavesdrop on whispered conversations, the need for ‘live’ information obtained by people exists all the same. “It’s the same way ground forces serve as core forces in the battlefield, despite greater participation of air forces and navy,” said the official.
Observing the situation in Israel, the South Korean government plans to inspect and strengthen Humint, focusing on key bases such as North Korea's missile launch sites and North Korean allies such as Iran. It is encouraging to see that intelligence authorities recognize the need to strengthen humints against North Korea.
There have been countless cases in which critical information, including abrupt changes in North Korean leadership, has been confirmed through Humint. It takes at least five years to build an effective humint network. It is an unspoken rule among US intelligence authorities to leave humint-related resources intact even if the government has been changed. It is risky to make changes to humint after years of building efforts on the grounds of government change or strengthening cooperation with North Korea. As the saying goes, you should not tear down the dam you worked so hard to build.
한국어
donga.com
13. South's military alarmed by North's apparent involvement in Hamas attack
Tuesday
October 17, 2023
dictionary + A - A
Published: 17 Oct. 2023, 16:32
Updated: 17 Oct. 2023, 18:49
South's military alarmed by North's apparent involvement in Hamas attack
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2023-10-17/national/northKorea/Souths-military-alarmed-by-Norths-apparent-involvement-in-Hamas-attack/1891975
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un examines the 122-millimeter shell used in its multiple rocket launchers on Aug. 7 during a tour of an ammunition production plant. [KOREAN CENTRAL NEWS AGENCY]
Hamas's attack on Israel has alarmed South Korea's military, especially regarding North Korea’s possible involvement and Pyongyang's potential use of similar tactics against Seoul.
According to the Joint Chief of Staff on Tuesday, some of the multiple rocket launchers found near the Israel border that Hamas militants reportedly used had “Bang-122” written in Korean.
Related Article
“Lately, we have repeatedly detected North Korea exporting various weapons to Middle East countries and militant organizations, including the 122-millimeter multiple rocket launchers found along the border near Israel,” said a JSC official. “We believe these weapons were used by Hamas or an organization that supports Hamas.”
The word “Bang” is believed to be the first word in the Korean phrase bangsapo, which means “multiple rocket launcher.” The number “122” is believed to indicate the caliber — 122 millimeters.
North Korea used the same rocket launcher when it bombarded Yeonpyeong Island in November 2010, killing four people — including two marines — and injuring 19.
The official also added that the F-7 surface-to-surface fragmentation rocket, which appeared in one of the videos of the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, is the name North Korea gives its exported RPG-7.
North Korea conducts a military drill including firing of the 122-millimeter multiple rocket launchers when North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visited an artillery unit on March 2020. [KOREAN CENTRAL NEWS AGENCY]
The JSC believes North Korea is not only supplying weapons to the Palestinian militant group but also offering other services, including operational strategy and training.
The Korean military noted the similarity of the tactics used by Hamas and North Korea.
In addition to making its strike at early dawn on a holiday, the Palestinian militant group had also taken down Israel’s defense system, notably the Iron Dome, with barrages of rockets and infiltrated after destroying surveillance and telecommunication systems with drones.
“Considering the tactics that were used, North Korea may have passed on its tactics or provided training,” the JSC official said.
The Korean military particularly noted the use of paragliders when Hamas militants entered Israel, a trademark tactic of North Korea.
“In the mid-2010s, when we completed the setup of a scientific alert system on the front lines that makes stealth invasion by land difficult, North Korea intensified its aerial infiltration training using paragliders,” the JSC official said. “In December 2016, North Korea disclosed a drill to attack Blue House using paragliders, which leader Kim Jong-un attended.”
North Korean special operation combatants of the Unit 525 engage in an infiltration exercise on a model of South Korea's Blue House in which North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attended in December 2016. [KOREAN CENTRAL NEWS AGENCY]
The official added that North Korea “may have passed on such know-how to Hamas.”
The JSC official said as North Korea has just witnessed how effective the tactic can be, it could use the same tactic to attack South Korea.
According to the JSC, North Korea’s gliders may evade radar as they are made from wood and maneuver at low altitudes.
The Korean military also concluded that the Iron Dome had limited the harm caused by the barrage of rockets fired into Israel.
“Of the 6,600 rockets fired by Hamas, 900 or so flew to their targets, of which Iron Dome shot down more than 700,” the JSC official said. “That's a success rate of 78 percent, which shows the effectiveness of the Iron Dome defense system.”
The Korean government plans to develop Korea’s own Iron Dome, the Low Altitude Missile Defense (LAMD), by 2026.
BY LEE HO-JEONG [lee.hojeong@joongang.co.kr]
14. Experts say Putin likely to visit Pyongyang this year
Will he go to Pyongyang immediately following his current trip to Beijing?
Experts say Putin likely to visit Pyongyang this year
The Korea Times · October 17, 2023
Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un examine a Soyuz rocket launch pad during their meeting at the Vostochny Cosmodrome outside the city of Tsiolkovsky in the Russian Far East's Amur region, Sept. 13. Experts said on Tuesday that Putin will likely visit Pyongyang soon, possibly this year. AP-Yonhap
Russian FM to arrive in North Korea amid suspicion of arms transfers
By Jung Min-ho
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will arrive in North Korea today for a two-day visit, amid suspicions of arms transfers between the two states and palpable signs of their expanding bilateral ties.
Experts on Moscow-Pyongyang relations told The Korea Times on Tuesday that they believe the chief purpose of Lavrov’s visit is to arrange a more significant diplomatic event ― Russian President Vladimir Putin’s first official visit to the North Korean capital in more than 20 years.
“Lavrov is there to organize Putin’s summit with Kim Jong-un. I cannot think of any other reason,” said Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute of National Unification, a state-run think tank. “It is now a question of when. Their next summit will likely take place this year.”
Hyun Seung-soo, another analyst at the think tank, agreed with the assessment.
Given the Kremlin’s desperate situation in Ukraine, where its troops are struggling with a chronic shortage of ammunition on the battlefield, Putin is expected to visit North Korea sooner rather than later as he is seeking more arms support from North Korea, Hyun said.
If the meeting takes place, it will be Putin’s first visit to Pyongyang since July 2000, when he engaged in talks with Kim Jong-il, the former leader of North Korea.
The latest development in the relationship comes after the Washington Post reported that two Russian ships made at least five round trips between a port facility in Dunay of the Russian Far East and North Korea's northeastern port of Rajin since mid-August ― a sign of possible arms transfers. This followed the White House’s announcement, Friday, that Pyongyang delivered more than 1,000 containers of military equipment and munitions to Moscow for its ongoing war in Ukraine.
According to the news report, the highly suspected transfers began about three weeks after Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited North Korea, where he held a meeting with Kim to discuss strengthening military cooperation.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meets with reporters in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, Oct. 12, the day before a summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States held there, in this handout picture released by the Russian foreign ministry. AFP-Yonhap
It is still unclear what North Korea gained ― or will gain ― from Russia in return. There have been worries that the Kremlin may offer sensitive military technologies to Pyongyang, which is trying to develop nuclear-powered submarines and spy satellites among other high-tech weapons systems.
Asked about that possibility, analysts said Russia’s lack of trust in the North and geopolitical restrictions will likely stand as an obstacle.
“In desperation, Russia might have offered North Korea cooperation in technological areas. In the long run, however, there are few benefits Russia can expect from that partnership other than ammunition and manpower,” Cho said. “So Russia may provide support in some areas, but it will stay reluctant to share its core technologies while projecting an image suggesting otherwise. I think the summit is part of that effort.”
In Russia, there has been a political discourse regarding how closely Russia should collaborate with North Korea, as almost all such attempts would violate international sanctions, according to Hyun, who added that the Kremlin knows the high diplomatic cost attached to the ties.
Speaking of the Russian foreign minister’s visit to North Korea, an official at the South's Ministry of Unification told reporters that the two countries should stop violating international laws.
“Amid the illegal arms transfers between Russia and North Korea, which were confirmed by the U.S. government, the international community is now closely monitoring the Russian foreign minister’s visit,” the official said.
The Korea Times · October 17, 2023
15. Has North Korea given up normalization of relations with US?
The security dilemma is of the Kmi family regime's own making due to its hostile policy that seeks domination of the peninsula by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State,
I think the author needs to reflect on the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.
I do agree that there are some who hav e blind faith in economic sanctions. They are a part of a strategy but insufficient by themselves.
Excerpts:
Unfortunately, still there are U.S. officials and policymakers with blind faith in the effectiveness of the economic sanctions against North Korea, leading Washington to maintain the devastating sanctions against North Korea even when Kim expressed his willingness to take steps for denuclearization in 2018. The tricky part for Seoul is that the U.S. will unlikely lift the sanctions on North Korea first to boost the diplomatic engagement with Pyongyang. Unless North Korea dismantles its nuclear arsenals preemptively, no moves by the U.S. on sanctions will be made. As North Korea will also never give up its nuclear weapons first as a friendly gesture toward the U.S., the tug-of-war will last while South Korea has no effective cards for both sides to resolve the security conflicts in the region.
Due to the U.S. and U.N. economic sanctions against North Korea, and South Korea’s relations with China and Russia, North Korea cannot give up normalizing ties with the U.S. Cooperating with Russia militarily and forming close ties with China and other anti-U.S. states does not reflect that the North is no longer interested in normalizing relations with the U.S. Although it is understandable that Washington prefers taking a hawkish stance on North Korea due to Pyongyang’s unilateral (and repeated) withdrawal and breach of the agreements in the past, it should recalibrate its policy on North Korea by closely working with South Korea to defuse tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Starting with diplomatic steps such as ending the 1950-53 Korean War as an impetus to reactivate the stalled nuclear talks, the U.S. administration should devise policies on how to completely dismantle the North Korean nuclear arsenal through a phased denuclearization process.
Refraining from warning Pyongyang repeatedly that its attempt to use nuclear weapons will result in the end of the Kim regime, the U.S. should put itself in North Korean shoes to delve deeper into the deep-rooted security dilemma on the Korean Peninsula caused by the North’s growing nuclear capabilities.
Has North Korea given up normalization of relations with US?
The Korea Times · October 17, 2023
By Mitch Shin
Since Kim Jong-un, the autocratic leader of North Korea, met Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome, Russia’s Far East, last month, many pundits started contending that the Kim-Putin summit implies the North’s intention to finally give up its years-long wish ― the normalization of relations with the United States. However, it is unclear whether North Korea’s goal to establish diplomatic relations with the U.S. is clearly off the table.
To replenish its supplies of ammunition in the prolonged Ukraine War, Moscow is believed to have asked Pyongyang to provide ammunition, and possibly missiles, to accomplish its goal in Ukraine. In exchange for support, Pyongyang might have demanded cash, food and advanced missile technology transfers.
Giving Kim a tour of his country’s modern space launch station, Putin promised to help North Korea build satellites. This year, North Korea attempted to send its satellites into orbit in May and August but failed to carry out the mission. Pyongyang publicly announced that it would make a third attempt in October.
Along with this, as North Korean missiles show similarities with Russian designs, it would be alarming to the U.S. and South Korea if Moscow takes steps to help Pyongyang complete its nuclear forces by transferring intercontinental ballistic missile and submarine-launched ballistic missile technologies. Considering Pyongyang’s Juche ideology coined by the country’s founder Kim Il-sung, however, Moscow will unlikely do so as it eventually will not be able to control Pyongyang’s aggression after Kim gains overwhelming power thanks to the missile technology transfer.
Despite Kim’s “full and unconditional support” for Putin’s “sacred fight” to defend his country’s security interests, North Korea would again show up in the nuclear talks with the U.S. when the conditions are met. In other words, North Korea cannot give up its efforts to normalize relations with the U.S. as its economy and pariah status on the international diplomatic stage cannot recover without U.S. support.
Even though most U.S. and South Korean experts distrust Kim’s remarks that he can be willing to withdraw his nuclear weapons if the U.S. can guarantee the security of him and his regime, it should be noted that he once schemed to show what scenarios he can accept for the denuclearization of his country.
Ever since the U.S. imposed economic sanctions against North Korea, the first priority Pyongyang has always demanded has been Washington’s lifting of the sanctions. During the 2019 Hanoi Summit with then-U.S. President Donald Trump, Kim offered the complete destruction of his country’s emblematic Yongbyon Nuclear Complex in exchange for lifting the five main economic sanctions related to civic affairs. This offer was rejected by Trump at that time as he was looking for an “all for all” approach to getting attention from the U.S. media that were covering his former lawyer Michael Cohen’s hearing before the U.S. House of Representatives’ Committee on Oversight and Accountability. The U.S. Democrats scheduled the testimony on the same day when Trump was negotiating with Kim - which is believed to be one of the reasons for Trump’s decision to walk out of the summit meeting with no deal.
As many experts and government officials already know, the “all for all” approach is what Kim cannot pursue as he believes that the U.S. and South Korea would attack his country if he voluntarily gave up his nuclear weapons first. This sentiment prevails in Pyongyang’s state-controlled media reports calling the South Korea-U.S. joint military drills “rehearsals for an invasion.”
Although China and Russia have backed up North Korea in the U.N. Security Council by blocking the U.S.-led initiatives to impose additional sanctions against North Korea for its long-range ballistic missile launches since last year, their influence to revive the North Korean economy is limited without the U.S. withdrawal of the sanctions against the North. Thus, North Korea cannot fully rely on the support and cooperation of Russia and China as it also knows the vicious cycle of its crippling economy can be broken under the normalization of relations with the U.S. And Kim would know that any growing leverage of pro-China and pro-Russia military elites within North Korea would rather weaken the stability of his regime.
Becoming a contender against the U.S. is not what the North wants to achieve in the foreseeable future. It is also not seeking to make his country an economic superpower to confront China in the region. The priority goal of the North is to be a legitimate nuclear state recognized by the U.S. so that it can become a socialist economic powerhouse in the long run.
Unfortunately, still there are U.S. officials and policymakers with blind faith in the effectiveness of the economic sanctions against North Korea, leading Washington to maintain the devastating sanctions against North Korea even when Kim expressed his willingness to take steps for denuclearization in 2018. The tricky part for Seoul is that the U.S. will unlikely lift the sanctions on North Korea first to boost the diplomatic engagement with Pyongyang. Unless North Korea dismantles its nuclear arsenals preemptively, no moves by the U.S. on sanctions will be made. As North Korea will also never give up its nuclear weapons first as a friendly gesture toward the U.S., the tug-of-war will last while South Korea has no effective cards for both sides to resolve the security conflicts in the region.
Due to the U.S. and U.N. economic sanctions against North Korea, and South Korea’s relations with China and Russia, North Korea cannot give up normalizing ties with the U.S. Cooperating with Russia militarily and forming close ties with China and other anti-U.S. states does not reflect that the North is no longer interested in normalizing relations with the U.S. Although it is understandable that Washington prefers taking a hawkish stance on North Korea due to Pyongyang’s unilateral (and repeated) withdrawal and breach of the agreements in the past, it should recalibrate its policy on North Korea by closely working with South Korea to defuse tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Starting with diplomatic steps such as ending the 1950-53 Korean War as an impetus to reactivate the stalled nuclear talks, the U.S. administration should devise policies on how to completely dismantle the North Korean nuclear arsenal through a phased denuclearization process.
Refraining from warning Pyongyang repeatedly that its attempt to use nuclear weapons will result in the end of the Kim regime, the U.S. should put itself in North Korean shoes to delve deeper into the deep-rooted security dilemma on the Korean Peninsula caused by the North’s growing nuclear capabilities.
Mitch Shin is a young fellow at The Institute for Peace & Diplomacy. Shin was an assistant editor and chief Koreas correspondent for The Diplomat, and a non-resident research fellow at The Institute for Security & Development Policy, Stockholm Korea Center.
The Korea Times · October 17, 2023
16. Ex-US ambassador calls for strengthening nuke deterrence for S. Korea amid N. Korean threats
Ex-US ambassador calls for strengthening nuke deterrence for S. Korea amid N. Korean threats
koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · October 17, 2023
By Yonhap
Published : Oct. 17, 2023 - 09:34
Former US Ambassador to South Korea Harry Harris
A former US ambassador to South Korea called Monday for the United States to keep strengthening its "extended deterrence" commitment to the Asian ally as he portrayed North Korea's evolving military threats as "far greater" than before.
During a virtual seminar, Harry Harris, who served as US ambassador to Seoul from 2018-2021, made the call as the recalcitrant regime has been doubling down on its nuclear and missile programs under an apparently aggressive nuclear policy stipulated in its constitution.
But Harris, also a retired admiral, said it would be a "mistake" to redeploy US tactical nuclear arms to the Korean Peninsula despite the North Korean security challenge.
"We have to continue to reinforce our extended nuclear deterrence for South Korea," he said at the seminar hosted by the American Enterprise Institute, an US-based think tank. Extended deterrence refers to the US' commitment to using the full range of its military capabilities, including nuclear, to defend its ally.
The visit of the nuclear ballistic missile submarine, USS Kentucky (SSBN-737), to South Korea in July was a "great" demonstration of the US' deterrence commitment, though Washington cannot do it "routinely," he added.
Harris underscored the importance of extended deterrence, saying, "Our allies don't trust the US enough."
"When they lose that trust, whey they believe that you are not going to extend our nuclear extended deterrent to them, that's when they will proliferate and build their own nuclear weapons and you can't blame (them) for that," he said.
He also pointed out the need to reinforce all three legs of the US' "nuclear triad" that consists of nuclear-capable submarines, bombers and intercontinental ballistic missiles, as he touched on China's drive for nuclear capabilities.
"Those that say we only need two parts of the nuclear triad, and that's wrong," he said. "We need all three elements and ground-based, air, submarine-launched capabilities are each important and must be improved," he said.
Commenting on the North Korean challenge, Harris gave an assessment that the regime perfected its targeting through its repeated short-range ballistic missile tests.
He expressed concerns about technological cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow.
"All I know is what I read in the news, but in exchange for North Korean munitions, Russia will provide technology to enable North Korea to be successful in its space aspirations," he said. "So, they are far better today capability-wise."
But he said that the alliance is also "stronger" than before.
"I am pleased President Yoon (Suk Yeol) placed the U.S-South Korea alliance as a center point of his foreign policy, and that means a return to joint military exercises," he said, expressing his expectation that the alliance will be better in meeting the North Korean threat. (Yonhap)
koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · October 17, 2023
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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