|
Today's trade was adrift today with the market generally positioned to accept the WASDE report in two days.
This morning, the market was digesting the release of CONAB’s forecasts of Brazilian grain production (CONAB is Brazil’s equivalent of the USDA).
CONAB forecast the following:
• 2023/24 Brazilian soybean production at 155.27 million tonnes, down from their December estimate of 160.18 million tonnes (The USDA and Conab usually travel very close in their assessment of the Brazil crop which is why bean prices saw another hit today.)
• 2023/24 corn production of 117.6 million tonnes, down 0.93 million tonnes from their December projection. The corn reduction was primarily taken out of first crop corn volumes, not from the larger 2nd crop safrinha crop. However, it is down 11.4 mmt from the USDA.
On the other side of the production spectrum, today, Argentina's Rosario exchange has increased its harvest estimates for corn + 3 million to 59 million tonnes & soybeans +2 million to 52 million tonnes.
Ethanol stocks rose to an eight-month high 24.4 million barrels in the week ending January 5, up from 23.6 million the previous week, and up from 23.8 million barrels in the same week last year. Estimated marketing year to date corn use for ethanol totals 1.908 billion bushels, up 119 million bushels or 6.7% of the previous year's pace. We may look for USDA to bump its ethanol demand estimate on its corn balance sheet by another 25 - 30 million bushels on Friday.
Funds were thought to have been mostly sellers today.
| 
