Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is arguably the worst crisis the world has faced, so far, in this new century. We haven’t seen a pandemic like this since the 1918 Flu at the beginning of the last century, and, as of this writing, there appears to be no end in sight. What those of us who’re focused on quantitative methods have noticed, in addition to the many people dying, becoming ill, and losing their livelihoods, is the importance of quantitative literacy to an understanding of what’s going on. That’s what this article is about. Specifically, it’s about how the COVID-19 pandemic is illustrating the importance of understanding different aspects of probability theory, particularly conditional probability.

Recommended Citation

Lewis, Michael A. "COVID-19 and Quantitative Literacy: Focusing on Probability." Numeracy 14, Iss. 1 (2021): Article 5. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5038/1936-4660.14.1.1362

External Funding Awards

Professor Diane DePanfilis is the Principal Investigator of a new award funded by the NYC Administration for Children’s Services (ACS) to implement and evaluate multiple leadership interventions with public and private executive level leaders through the new Institute for Leadership Development. Interventions include (1) Executive Coaching with public and private senior leaders; (2) the Exploring Through Accountability and Development (LEAD) program, which was adapted from the National Child Welfare Workforce Institute’s developed and tested leadership competency program; and (3) the Learning, Evolving, & Advancing Professionally (LEAP) program for supervisors in the Division of Child Protection. In addition, participants in the LEAD program will develop Intentional Community Building and Change Projects to advance public-private collaboration among leaders to target unpacking systemic oppression, promoting social justice, and fostering a safety culture. Change projects will contribute to meaningful transformation for individuals and systems to better serve children, youth, families, and communities. FY24 award is $2,150,656.

From left to right, Charita Thomas, Associate Commissioner, Division of Child Protection; Alexis Howard, Project Director, Institute for Leadership Development (ILD); Olesia Shaw, Executive Director, ILD; Andrew White, Deputy Commissioner for Policy & Planning; Cheryl Beaman, Associate Commissioner, Office of Training and Workforce Development; Diane DePanfilis, PI; Jess Dannhauser, ACS Commissioner.

Assistant Professor Liat Shklarski, PhD, LCSW-R

Assistant Professor Qi Chen, PhD, MSW

Assistant Professor Yi Wang, PhD, LMSW

Faculty Promotions

Promotion to Professor

Education

Doctor of Philosophy, Social Welfare

CUNY Graduate Center, 2010

Master of Public Administration

University of Nebraska at Omaha, 2001

Areas of Expertise

• Parent Advocacy/Peer Support in Child Welfare
• Parent Engagement in Child Welfare
• Multidisciplinary Practices in Child Protection
• Child Welfare and Child Protection in Developing Countries

Courses

• Child Welfare Platform Course
• Research Methods I & II
• International Social Welfare Policies & Services
• Social Work Administration
• Professional Seminar

Education

Doctorate in Clinical Social Work

New York University, 2009

Master of Social Work

New York University, 2002

Areas of Expertise

• Substance use and misuse
• Brief interventions for individuals who drink hazardously
• Mechanisms of behavior change within addictive behaviors
• Substance use and special populations (older adults, LGBTQIA+)
• Mobile health interventions
• Ecological momentary assessment

Courses

• Alcoholism and Substance Abuse
• Clinical Practice with Individuals, Groups and Families II and III
• Methods of Data Analysis (Doctoral Program)
• Advanced Statistical Analysis (Doctoral Program)

Global Impact

Silberman faculty collaborate globally. Brief snapshots

from visits to Australia, Japan, and Scotland follow.

Professor and Senior Associate Dean for Research Diane DePanfilis was the keynote speaker at a Global Day of Parents Forum on June 1st at the Queensland Multicultural Center, Kangaroo Point, Brisbane, Australia.

Her talk was titled, “Imagine if the support families received was practical, adaptable, tailored, safe, and early.” Slides and a Padlet created during the talk can be located here. 

Professor DePanfilis also met with policy leaders and researchers in three other forums during her visit to Brisbane.  

Professors Jama Shelton (remote), SJ Dodd (in person), and Gary Mallon (in person) presented at the 5th International Sexuality and Social Work Conference in Glasgow, Scotland, July 18-19, 2023.

Professor Dodd presented two papers (see below) and chaired two sessions: 1. LGBTQ+ Potential, Strength, Identity and World-Making, and 2. Social Work Education and Student Experience. 

J. Shelton & SJ Dodd - Binary Thinking and the Limiting of Human Potential

Our society compresses a multitude of human identities into arbitrary categories, many of which are constructed as binaries. Binary constructs offer two mutually exclusive, possible ways of being. Perhaps the most prevalent in US society is the gender binary – the pervasive idea that there are two, rigidly boundaried gender categories, each with an accompanying set of expectations. Binary gender classifications are a foundational element of U.S. social structures that foreclose possibilities for who individuals are and who they can become. Binaries create a hierarchy within which one category is “better” than the other. This hierarchical order is embedded in societal structures and tightly bound with systems of oppression, confirming power and privilege and maintaining a social order rooted in racism, sexism, heterosexism, and cisgenderism.

Not only is the maintenance of this social order limiting, it also perpetuates violence and marginalization. This paper examines the ways in which the gender binary produces and maintains the violence against and marginalization of transgender and nonbinary people. It concludes with recommendations for moving beyond binary thinking, particularly within the public sector, in order to create systems and institutions that better support human potential and open possibilities for all people.

J. Shelton, SJ Dodd, J. Borgan & G. San Emeterio - A Descriptive Account of the Practicum Experiences of Trans and Nonbinary Social Work Students

Current anti-transgender legislative activity necessitates social workers take action in solidarity with transgender and non-binary (TNB) individuals and communities. Pervasive discrimination and marginalization of TNB people across multiple public domains, including education, is irrefutable (James et al, 2016). Social work education is no exception. Not only is there a documented lack of affirming educational and practicum opportunities for TNB social work students (Austin et al., 2016), social work students also report being ill-prepared to practice with TNB individuals and communities (Craig et al., 2015). Social workers are ethically obligated by their professional identification to demonstrate competency related to service provision with marginalized individuals and groups and to confront oppression and foster social justice, including related to gender identity (NASW, 2021). Yet, social work educational settings must first reckon with their own cisnormativity and anti-trans bias. Scant research has explored the experiences of TNB social work students, particularly during the practicum experience, termed social work’s “signature pedagogy” (CSWE Educational Policy 3.3, 2022). This paper reports on part of a multi-phase project examining TNB social work students' practicum education experiences.

G. Mallon & M. López - Examining the Roles and Relationships with Families, Friends, and Professionals in the Lives of LGBTQIA+ Youth in Child Protection Systems. 

Professor Gary Mallon and his colleague from the Netherlands, Dr. Mónica López, presented findings from research they conducted in Cantabria, Spain. The study of LGBTQ+ youth in foster care, explored the experiences of those young people in a system with little support for their gender or sexual identities. Findings are shared in a report, distributed at the workshop titled: “Niños, niñas y adolescentes LGTBIQ+ en los centros de acogimiento residencial del sistema de protección a la infancia de Cantabria.”

Link to the conference or event website

https://www.sexualityandsocialwork.com

Professor Jim Mandiberg was a Visiting Researcher at Rikkyo University in Tokyo, Japan for the Spring 2023 semester. 

Highlights from his work in Japan:

• Completed long-term research on the Jizo Dori (roughly Buddhist Statue Street) shopping district of Sugamo, Tokyo.  
• Began collecting artifacts and articles and translating articles from Japanese on the “silver” (senior) market and economy in Japan, with an eye towards what can be learned and used in the United States.
• Made an initial visit to a Burakumin village in Osaka that is implementing economic development strategies that are very similar to identity economies and markets. (Think of ethnic economies and ethnic enclave economies for more familiar examples.) Burakumin or Hisabetsu Burakumin (discriminated village people) were declared outcast in the 700s because at that time they worked as butchers, tanners, preparers of dead bodies, etc. – all considered unclean in Buddhism.
• Spent time with his favorite mental health program anywhere in the world – Betheru no Ie (BnI) and made arrangements to disseminate aspects of their model to North America, including a kind of “clinical” intervention that has spread to East and Southeast Asia, called Tojisha Kenkyu.
• Started initial research on Kodomo Shokudo (roughly Children’s Cafeterias) – a grassroots intervention developed in neighborhoods with (initially) no government funding during COVID-19 to make sure that neighborhood children with working parents had at least one significant meal per day.  
• Visited a Robot café in Tokyo that is staffed by people with disabilities (mostly physical, but also hikikomori —people living with phobias and extreme social withdrawal that limits their physical contact with others and restricts them to their homes). This café was developed by a former hikikomori.

Recent Notable Publications

Author Abstract:

Transition-age youth with foster care involvement (TAY, ages 17–22) are at heightened risk for suicidal behavior. Despite this, mental health screenings are not standardized across child welfare (CW) systems and existing assessment tools are not designed for use with this specific population. As such, TAY are unlikely to be adequately screened for suicide risk and connected with needed services. In this paper, we sought to identify screening and assessment tools that could be effective for use with TAY in CW settings. Using PubMed and PsycINFO, we conducted a search of the current literature to identify commonly used screening and assessment tools for youth. We then narrowed our focus to those tools that met predefined inclusion criteria indicating appropriateness of use for TAY in CW settings. As a result of this process, we identified one brief screening tool (the ASQ) and four assessments (the SIQ-JR, the C-SSRS, the SHBQ, and the SPS) that demonstrated specific promise for use with TAY. The strengths and limitations of the tools are discussed in detail, as well as the ways that each could be used most effectively in CW settings. We highlight three key points intended to guide social work practice and policy: (1) systematic, routine assessment of mental health and suicide risk across CW settings is critical; (2) the protocol for assessing suicidal behavior in TAY must account for the wide variations in context and service provision; and (3) CW workers administering assessments must be thoughtfully trained on risk identification and the protocol implementation.

Author Abstract:

Alcohol use disorder (AUD) comprises a continuum of symptoms and associated problems that has led AUD to be a leading cause of morbidity and mortality across the globe. Given the heterogeneity of AUD from mild to severe, consideration is being given to providing a spectrum of interventions that offer goal choice to match this heterogeneity, including helping individuals with AUD to moderate or control their drinking at low-risk levels. Because so much remains unknown about the factors that contribute to successful moderated drinking, we use dynamical systems modeling to identify mechanisms of behavior change. Daily alcohol consumption and daily desire (i.e., craving) are modeled using a system of delayed difference equations. Employing a mixed effects implementation of this system allows us to garner information about these mechanisms at both the population and individual levels. Use of this mixed effects framework first requires a parameter set reduction via identifiability analysis. The model calibration is then performed using Bayesian parameter estimation techniques. Finally, we demonstrate how conducting a parameter sensitivity analysis can assist in identifying optimal targets of intervention at the patient-specific level. This proof-of-concept analysis provides a foundation for future modeling to describe mechanisms of behavior change and determine potential treatment strategies in patients with AUD.

Author Abstract:

When countries experience a surge of migrants at their borders, they search for ways to assert control, often using strategies aimed at slowing, reducing, discouraging, or blocking entry. To the extent that national and international law confers rights on some migrants, in particular laws allowing individuals to cross borders to claim asylum, the tools for directly impeding entry may be limited. In this context, states may develop administrative practices to accomplish indirectly what they cannot accomplish directly by law. This article examines the case of metering in the United States as an administrative strategy of border control. It traces an unusual path to this strategy, from its origins in informal street-level practices to its evolution into a formal administrative policy extending and ostensibly legitimating those practices. This analysis brings a comparative street-level perspective to the socio-legal analysis of law-in-practice.

Author Abstract:

Attacks on the administrative state are escalating. The Supreme Court’s conservative majority is on track to reverse key pillars of administrative law that give deference to an agency’s expertise and knowledge when interpreting its authorizing statute. This article explores the legal, ideological, and philosophical underpinnings of these doctrinal changes in administrative law and the likely effect on administrative governance. It aims to inform non legal stakeholders, including social workers, how legal doctrines and principles shape what executive agencies do, the consequences of doctrinal changes, and the implications for administrators, those they serve, and the larger body politic.

Author Abstract:

The voices of mothers affected by the child welfare system are forefronted in this article. A group of five women, all affiliated with the parent-led, community-based organization Rise Magazine, gathered to discuss their experiences, including any role they believed race, racism and other forms of bias played in their child welfare cases. Their powerful, first-hand accounts illustrate the systemic injustices faced by child welfare affected families. This article also focuses on the development of Rise's organizational structure as a space where parents both lead and drive the organization's mission to empower and support system affected families. A postscript by Tricia Stephens, integrating how parents’ experiences are reflected in existing research, is provided. It is the hope of the parents who currently work at and those who have passed through Rise, that sharing their personal stories inspires and helps to guide others across the country.