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PDF | Research | Week of December 18, 2023

Quote of the Week

“All this pain and PTSD the bond market has from aggressive rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 is finally moving to the rearview mirror.”

–  Gene Tannuzzo, global head of fixed income, Columbia Threadneedle Investments.

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Four for ’24 (First of a Series)

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2023 was characterized by several key themes in the capital markets. The Fed’s battle against inflation, the resulting impact on issuers of higher for-longer interest rates, a much slower M&A pace as buyers and sellers deal with mounting borrowing costs and compressed equity returns, and the steady disintermediation of buyout financings from public to private credit.  


These dynamics have put private credit in the spotlight, not only for market participants, but regulators and the media. The latter two categories, for various reasons, struggles with how private credit has expanded in popularity with both issuers and investors. They attribute “growth” with “risk.” But as one asset manager put it, “mistaken pattern recognition leads some to attribute the historic behavior of public credit under stress with future private credit performance.”...



✒️ From the Editor: The Lead Left will be on break until the week of January 8th. To all of our readers, best wishes for a safe, healthy and restful holiday season.


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Chart of the Week

Lower for Longer

The past two years have not been kind to holders of ten-year Treasurys.

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Source: The Daily Shot, Alpine Macro

(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

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Stat of the Week

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Loan Stats at a Glance 

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Contact: Ryan Brown/ PitchBook LCD

PDI Picks

Room for improvement on ESG

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A group of investors noted the progress made by private debt in ESG and DEI, but there is still some way to go, they believe.

Private Debt Investor’s December/January issue approached European investors to get their thoughts on how ESG is dealt with by managers...

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

US CLO share of the institutional

loan market tops 70%

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The US CLO market has grown by 6.8% this year, pushing assets under management (AUM) to US$1.03trn. In turn, the US CLO share of the institutional loan market now tops 70%. In comparison, retail loan fund AUM has declined in the past year, falling to US$131bn in November...

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Contact: CJ Doherty / LSEG LPC

The Pulse of Private Equity

Middle-market activity: A 6-year low

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Middle market buyouts are down to a six-year low, according to PitchBook’s Q3 US PE Middle Market Report....

Download  Data & Report

Contact: Alex Lykken / PitchBook

DL Deals: News & Analysis

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Year-to-Date Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Fitch’s Privately Monitored Rating (PMR)

Portfolio Analysis

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The default data is derived from Fitch’s portfolio of PMRs in the U.S...

Read More & Download Report

Contact: Brad Hamner / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Average Total Deleveraging Required To

Meet RP Ratio Test

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Download Data

Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

Download Data

Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Private Debt Intelligence

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Special situations funds close over

target in North America 

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The average percentage of target size at final close for North American special situations funds has reached over 100% in 2023 year to date (YTD)...

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Contact: Megan Harris / Preqin

Debtwire Middle-Market

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The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 10.7% as of 11 December, down from the highest YTD level of 12.1% in May) that tracks the overall performance of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs, lenders to privately held middle-market businesses that tend to be below investment grade or not rated, with most lending comprising of senior secured loans)...

Read More & Download Data

Contact: Suneet Chandvani / Debtwire 

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.