Recent attacks by Houthi militia in the Red Sea, targeting commercial vessels and claiming to protest Israel's actions, have drawn global attention. The UN Security Council has called for an end to Houthi attacks, while the US and UK have conducted strikes against the rebels. The Red Sea, especially the Bab al-Mandab Strait, serves as a crucial oil transit point, impacting global trade and energy transportation. The region's geopolitical significance involves the military bases of various countries, contributing to complex global relations. The Houthi militia, originating from Yemen, seeks a Zaidi Shia-led government and has become a major security concern, utilising sophisticated techniques to disrupt shipping, primarily affecting Saudi ships and ports. Other security challenges include ongoing regional conflicts, ideological differences, and the rise of smuggling activities, which affect stability. Regional cooperation, exemplified by the Red Sea Council, is crucial, but international support and addressing historical tensions are needed for effective security measures. Click here to read the full article derived from theconversation.com.

On 11 January 2024, a delegation from Agbiz, FPEF, SATI, Hortgro and CGA with Transnet’s executive team under the leadership of Michelle Phillips, the Action Group Executive. The meeting follows a letter co-signed by Agbiz, Fruit SA, and the FPEF drawing attention to challenges experienced at the Port of Cape Town. At the meeting, the industry reiterated the need for short, medium and long-term interventions needed to manage the remainder of the summer export season and beyond. As an immediate measure, a ‘war room’ will be established between industry and Transnet that meets on a day to day basis. The aim is to improve real-time communication between the port and its stakeholders and to monitor improvements in productivity. Such a platform is vital to mitigate the impact of wind closures and to ensure optimal use of recovery times post-closures due to wind. From the industry’s side, these efforts will be coordinated by FPEF and include all relevant stakeholders in the value chain. Click here to read the full report by Agbiz CEO Theo Boshoff.

The South African Government celebrates a significant breakthrough as China announces a substantial reduction in tariff rates on imports of South African Rooibos tea, positioning it as a market game-changer. Rooibos tea, renowned globally, received a dedicated tariff code at the World Customs Organisation (WCO) following South Africa's initiative. China, a key player in the tea market, slashed previous tariffs of 15–30% on Rooibos to a mere 6%, effective 1 January 2024. South Africa's Minister of Trade, Industry, and Competition, Ebrahim Patel, initiated discussions with China's Minister of Commerce, Wang Wentao, in 2023. This resulted in a reclassification of Rooibos tea under the new tariff code HS 1211.90.39, significantly benefiting South African exporters. The Rooibos Council reports that this move, impacting around 20,000 tonnes of annual production, will generate employment for over 5,000 people. China, ranking as the seventh-largest market for South African Rooibos in 2023, is set to witness increased availability. Minister Patel expressed enthusiasm, emphasising the positive impact on job creation and increased Rooibos exports to China. This breakthrough aligns with broader trade objectives, strengthening the agricultural and industrial product portfolio. Minister Patel commended Minister Thoko Didiza and her team for their collaborative efforts, highlighting the potential to enhance trade relations between South Africa and China. Click here to read full statement by The DTIC.

The ongoing crisis at the container terminal in Cape Town's port could escalate into a legal battle as frustrations within South Africa's fresh produce sector mount. Industry leaders, seeking to recoup losses due to delays, are contemplating taking legal action against the port authority. Anton Rabe, Hortgro's executive director, emphasised the unacceptable nature of recent delays, prompting the move towards legal recourse. Despite some recent improvements in port movements, the pressure on shipments, especially for table grapes and stonefruit crops, remains high. Growers and exporters attribute the delays to inefficiencies and a lack of equipment, with strong winds exacerbating the situation. Some exporters, opting for specialized reefer vessels, are managing to ship volumes, while considerations for charter vessels and alternative routes are being explored to mitigate delays impacting the US market. Click here to read the full article from fruitnet.com.

The National Water Amendment Bill was published for public comment on 17 November 2023. Originally, the due date for written submissions was 16 January 2023. This has now been extended to the 1st of March 2024. Agbiz submitted its comments on 15 January 2024. In its submission, Agbiz points to the importance of irrigation and alludes to the fact that many of the commodity associations affiliated with Agbiz represent industries that rely on irrigation to produce high-value, irrigated crops for the domestic and export markets. Agribusiness members also have a substantial interest in water rights, as they either supply irrigation farmers with inputs and equipment or provide finance for these enterprises. Agbiz points out the importance of the proposed amendments aligning with the aims of the National Development Plan as well as the Agriculture and Agro-processing Masterplan. Click here to read the full report by Agbiz Head of Legal Intelligence Annelize Crosby.

South Africa’s 2023–24 winter crop season has turned out better than some expected. In its fifth production estimate for the 2023–24 season, the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC), in its data released at the end of December 2023, kept the wheat harvest estimate unchanged from the previous month, at 2.15 million metric tonnes. This is 2% up from the last season’s crop. The only concern some producers had was the crop quality following heavy rains earlier in the season. We have not heard many complaints so far. Broadly, the provinces behind the current robust national wheat harvest forecast are the Western Cape (53% of the overall harvest), the Northern Cape, the Free State, and Limpopo. Admittedly, while the Northern Cape and Free State are still among the leading wheat producers, their expected harvest is less than the 2022–23 season. The expected large harvest in the Western Cape and Limpopo overshadows the decline in harvest in other provinces. There are also likely decent wheat harvests in the KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape, and North West regions. The harvest of this crop is nearly complete. Farmers had delivered 1.7 million metric tonnes of wheat to the commercial silos in the first week of January 2024. The rest of the deliveries will follow in the coming weeks. Click here to read the full piece by Agbiz Chief Economist Wandile Sihlobo. Click here to listen to the latest episode of Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo on the same topic.

When the 2023/24 agricultural season started we feared production conditions would become more challenging than we have seen in the past few seasons. The weather had shifted from a prolonged period of La Niña conditions, which came with a lot of rainfall, to an El Niño, which typically brings drought in Southern Africa. However, the rainfall conditions in the early part of the season are not living up to expectations. There was heavy rainfall at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 throughout most summer rainfall regions. The only province that has not received as much rainfall is the North West. Against a backdrop of better-than-expected conditions, farmers could plant their usual crops in provinces Free State, the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga and Limpopo. The North West experienced delays in plantings due to slightly delayed rainfall compared with other provinces. The irrigation regions, such as the Northern Cape, also planted on time, benefiting from higher dam levels and reduced load-shedding during the summer holidays to support crop conditions. Click here to read full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

There are divergent views about the effectiveness and extent to which South Africa’s agricultural policies have been implemented. Regardless of how experts feel about the capacity of the state and the policy stance of the South African government since the dawn of democracy, the one undeniable fact is that the sector has grown tremendously, as illustrated in the graph below. Data from the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform, and Rural Development show that domestic agricultural output in 2022–23 was twice as much as in 1993–94. Whether this growth has been inclusive and transformative is a question I will return to later in this piece. For now, it’s important to emphasise the growth of the industry and the drivers of its expansion. Significantly, this expansion was not driven by a few sectors but has been widespread—livestock, horticulture, and field crops have all seen strong growth over this period. Of course, the production of some crops, most notably wheat and sorghum, has declined over time. This, however, had a lot to do with changes in agroecological conditions and falling demand in the case of sorghum, not policies. Click here to read the full article by Wandile Sihlobo for the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University.

Divergent views surround the implementation of South Africa's agricultural policies, with data from the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform, and Rural Development indicating that domestic agricultural output in 2022/23 doubled compared to 1993/94. As the nation marks 30 years of democracy, scrutiny intensifies over the performance of South Africa's agricultural sector. In this discussion, Wandile Sihlobo provides insights into the effectiveness and extent of policy implementation, shedding light on the sector's accomplishments and challenges. Click here to watch the full interview with SABC News. 

Zimbabwe was one of the countries I worried would have a maize supply shortage in 2023. This was after data from the Pretoria office of the US Department of Agriculture showed that Zimbabwe’s 2022–23 maize production would amount to 1.5 million metric tonnes, little more than half of the ample harvest of 7 million metric tonnes of the 2020–21 production season. While this would have been a minor improvement on the 2021/22 production season’s maize harvest of 1.4 million metric tonnes, it would be 25% short of the country’s annual maize need of about million metric tonnes. I feared Zimbabwe would have to import about half a million tonnes to fulfil its annual need and another half million tonnes to replenish its grain reserves, since the Zimbabwe Grain Marketing Board is mandated to maintain a minimum of half a million tonnes of strategic maize reserve in physical stocks. Still, given the poor economic conditions in Zimbabwe, I suspected that the board was unlikely to procure the half million tonnes strategic reserve in full within the 2023–24 marketing year (the marketing year corresponds with the 2022–23 production year). Click here to read the full article by Wandile Sihlobo on whyafrica.co.za.

When 2023–24 South Africa's agricultural season started, we feared production conditions would become more challenging than we had seen in the last few seasons. The weather had shifted from a prolonged period of La Niña conditions, which came with a lot of rainfall, to an El Niño, which typically brings drought in Southern Africa. However, the rainfall conditions in the early part of the 2023–24 season are looking different compared with earlier expectations. We saw heavy rainfall at the end of 2023 and the beginning of this year throughout most summer rainfall regions of South Africa. The only province that has not received as much rainfall is the North West. Against a backdrop of better-than-expected conditions, farmers could plant their usual crops in provinces such as the Free State, Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, and Limpopo. Meanwhile, the North West saw delays in plantings because of slightly delayed rainfall compared with other provinces. The irrigation regions, such as the Northern Cape, also planted on time, benefited from higher dam levels, and reduced loadshedding during the summer holidays to support crop conditions. Click here to read the full article by Wandile Sihlobo.

Since 1994, South Africa's agricultural sector has witnessed substantial growth, propelling the country to the 59th position among 113 nations in the Global Food Security Index, as highlighted by Chief Economist Wandile. This sector stands as a significant contributor to the country's employment. Sihlobo elaborated on these achievements in an eNCA interview, providing insights into the remarkable journey of the agricultural industry's expansion and its crucial role in job creation. For a comprehensive understanding, you can watch the entire interview here. 

On 24 November 2023, Leaf proposed inspection methods and fees through the Government Gazette, with comments from the private sector to be submitted by 22 January 2024. This caused an uproar in the private sector, as the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform, and Rural Development, as principal, still needs to consult stakeholders on unresolved issues. As of November 2023, no consensus had been reached. Leaf's publication was premature and created mistrust in the private sector. All parties must act lawfully and create an environment of trust and communication to ensure common ground. However, the request for comments won't be able to be ignored, and every opportunity must be taken. Click here to read the full article by Agbiz Grain Desk General Manager, Wessel Lemmer.

The Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) has been a cornerstone of the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report for nearly two decades. In the 2023–2024 edition, 1,490 experts from academia, business, government, and civil society contributed to assessing the evolving global risk landscape. Conducted from September 4 to October 9, 2023, the survey defined "global risk" as events or conditions negatively impacting global GDP, population, or natural resources. Methodologically robust, GRPS explored risk severity, consequences, governance, and outlook to provide a comprehensive perspective. The report integrated insights from the Executive Opinion Survey (EOS) and contributions from 55 colleagues and over 160 experts, adding depth to the analysis. By combining global and local perspectives, the GRPS offers a nuanced understanding of potential threats, highlighting both shared concerns and regional manifestations of global risks. For a detailed look at the methodology and contributors, refer to the appendices and acknowledgments in the report. Click here to read the full Global Risks Report 2024.

AI's transformative potential is poised to reshape the global economy, affecting nearly 40% of jobs worldwide. The IMF underscores the urgent need for balanced policies to harness AI's benefits while mitigating potential job displacements and deepening inequality. Advanced economies face both risks and opportunities, with approximately 60% of jobs impacted by AI, while emerging markets and low-income countries may see fewer immediate disruptions but lack infrastructure to fully leverage AI benefits. The IMF's AI Preparedness Index emphasises the importance of comprehensive policies, including social safety nets and retraining programmes, to address AI-induced inequalities. As AI integration accelerates globally, policymakers must act swiftly, with advanced economies prioritising innovation and robust regulations while emerging markets focus on building digital foundations and skilled workforces. The AI era is underway, presenting an opportunity to shape a prosperous and inclusive future. Click here to read the full article by imf.org. 

The latest report from World Weather, Inc. shows prospects of continuous rainfall across South Africa's summer crop-growing areas. This is broadly positive for the sector, although there may be areas already struggling with water logging, particularly the country's eastern regions. Positively, the forecast also shows prospects of rainfall over the North West province, which could help support the crop-growing conditions in areas that were planted late and had struggled with dryness. Click here to read full report by World Weather, Inc. 

Emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the hope for an extended period of global stability was swiftly shattered as a conflict erupted in the Black Sea region. Subsequently, we have witnessed escalating global conflicts that have triggered significant shifts in the geopolitical landscape. This has prompted nations to reassess measures that disrupt worldwide trade, including export restrictions and pricing controls that impact global supply chains. Concurrently, the international community grapples with combating critical plant and animal diseases while grappling with the looming spectre of climate change. However, the imperative remains for businesses to persevere and adapt to the evolving global terrain. In echoing Charles Darwin's theory, it is not the strongest species that survives, but rather those that prove most adaptable to change. In light of these challenges, the 2024 Agbiz Congress theme intentionally recognises the evolving global panorama and redirects its focus towards sustaining growth in this uncertain environment. Esteemed speakers will share their perspectives on how to navigate and adapt to the complexities posed by geopolitical, environmental, and social instability. Aligned with Agbiz's ethos, the Congress aims to seek solutions that will propel the sector towards prosperity. To learn more and register for the event, we have launched our 2024 Agbiz Congress website, where you can find comprehensive information and details about this vital gathering. Visit the website to stay updated and secure your spot at this essential event. Learn more and register for the 2024 Agbiz Congress here.

The Citrus Growers' Association of Southern Africa (CGA), shares the latest news in the citrus industry in its weekly update, From the desk of the CEO. Please click here to peruse. 

• Agbiz is the only organisation that serves the broader and common over-arching business interests of agribusinesses in South Africa.
• Agbiz addresses the legislative and policy environment on the many fronts that it impacts on the agribusiness environment.
• Agbiz facilitates considerable top-level networking opportunities so that South African agribusinesses can play an active and creative role within the local and international organised business environment.
• Agbiz research provides sector-specific information for informed decision-making.
• Agbiz newsletter publishes members' press releases and member product announcements.