Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

“Let me remind you that you must never think of yourselves as an elite. To do so, would be bad for you and bad for your relations with the army, and it would undermine those splendid qualities, to which you are wedded, of humility in success, and of a constant sense of humour. No, you are not an elite force. You are something more distinguished. Something of which you can be far more proud. The SAS establishment constitutes the smallest Corps in the British Defence Forces but with a special strategic role which is probably unique among all the armies of the world, and one which could save an incalculable number of lives. Hence the need for you to keep a ‘low profile,’ for reticence, and for the practice of security at all times.”

- David Stirling

“We are all ready to be savage and some cause. The difference between a good man and a bad one is the choice of the cause.”

- William James

“Whatever is currently happening to humanity, it is happening to all of us. No matter how hidden the cruelty, no matter how far off the screams of pain and terror, we live in one world.”

- Alice Walker

1. N. Korean leader lauds military spy satellite as 'space guard'

2. Military Agreement with N.Korea Wasn't Worth the Paper It's Written on

3. North Korea launched a satellite, then apparently blew up its booster

4. North Korea Terminates Military Agreement with South Korea

5. Navy chiefs of S. Korea, U.S. discuss boosting cooperation after N.K. satellite launch

6. Minor quake hits near N. Korea's nuclear test site: weather agency

7. PUAC-Yonhap forum opens amid security challenges following N.K. satellite launch

8. ＜Inside N. Korea＞ Illegally printed study materials gain in popularity…How is this possible given N. Korea’s strict controls on publishing?

9. How advanced are North Korea's ICBM capabilities?

10. Hoeryong security officials turn to violence to extract confessions from remittance brokers

11. Why a 'Historic' Inter-Korean Military Pact Broke Down

1. N. Korean leader lauds military spy satellite as 'space guard'

I wonder if he will call his "space force.' "guardians." (note sarcasm).

One satellite that probably provides imagery equal to (or less than) Google Earth.

But I love the black leather trench coat. Perhaps that should be the new look this winter season. We should all adopt it.

(LEAD) N. Korean leader lauds military spy satellite as 'space guard' | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · November 24, 2023

(ATTN: CHANGES photos)

By Kim Soo-yeon

SEOUL, Nov. 24 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has lauded the country's successful launch of a military spy satellite as an eye-opening event of deploying a "space guard" monitoring enemies' military activities, state media reported Friday.

Kim made the remark during his visit to the National Aerospace Technology Administration (NATA) on Thursday, as he encouraged engineers and scientists who contributed to Tuesday's launch of the Malligyong-1, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

"He highly appreciated that the eye-opening event of deploying the reconnaissance satellite constantly grasping the military intention and moves of the hostile forces with our space guard and powerful sighting telescope is the precious victory," the KCNA said in an English-language dispatch.

This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Nov. 24, 2023, shows the North's leader Kim Jong-un (C) and his daughter (2nd from L, front row), believed to be named Ju-ae, posing for a photo with scientists and engineers who contributed to the country's latest launch of a military spy satellite, as he visited the National Aerospace Technology Administration the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

Stressing that the possession of a spy satellite is a "full-fledged" exercise of the right to self-defense, Kim called for efforts to achieve the "immediate and long-term goal" of developing the aerospace reconnaissance capacity, it added.

Kim visited the facility with his daughter, believed to be named Ju-ae, and held a photo session with those involved in the satellite program.

North Korea launched the Malligyong-1 on a new type of the Chollima-1 rocket Tuesday night after two failed attempts in May and August, respectively. The country vowed to launch several more satellites within a short span of time to better reconnoiter South Korea and "the region of its operational interest."

The National Intelligence Service, South Korea's spy agency, told lawmakers Thursday that Russia's technical assistance likely helped the North successfully put the satellite into orbit.

Meanwhile, the North's leader attended a banquet Thursday with his wife, Ri Sol-ju, and their daughter, to celebrate the satellite launch, according to a separate report by the KCNA.

The event brought together senior officials at NATA, rocket scientists and engineers, as well as key military and government officials, including Jang Chang-ha, chief of the General Missile Bureau, it added.

This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Nov. 24, 2023, shows the North's leader Kim Jong-un (R) and his daughter, believed to be named Ju-ae, attending a banquet the previous day to celebrate the country's successful launch of a military spy satellite. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · November 24, 2023

2. Military Agreement with N.Korea Wasn't Worth the Paper It's Written on

I do not remember many OpEds like this in Korea in 2018, though many of us felt this way (and many of us said so) for the reasons outlined below (e.g., north Korean actions). Despite that I am glad South Korea did not abrogate the agreement and allowed north Korea to do so.

This should help those who do not have accurate assumptions about the nature, objectives and strategy of the Kim family regime. This illustrates the nature of the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that is not a responsible member of the international community and seeks to use subversion and force to dominate the Korean peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.

Military Agreement with N.Korea Wasn't Worth the Paper It's Written on

english.chosun.com

November 24, 2023 13:02

As expected, North Korea has melodramatically scrapped a military agreement signed with South Korea in 2018 by which it had barely abided for a minute. "We will withdraw the military steps, taken to prevent military tension and conflict in all spheres including ground, sea and air, and deploy more powerful armed forces and new-type military hardware in the region along the military demarcation line," it thundered. The move came in response to the South Korean government scrapping a no-fly zone set up under the agreement after the North launched a space rocket on Tuesday in violation of UN Security Council sanctions.

For North Korea, the agreement never really existed, and it has violated it countless times since it was inked five years ago. The North readied its coastal artillery more than 3,400 times, conducted live-fire exercises in the buffer zone, and in 2022 alone lobbed around 600 artillery rounds toward it in the West Sea. In December that same year, North Korean drones crossed over the inter-Korean border and flew over Seoul.

But for mysterious reasons South Korea felt bound by it. Not only did the South Korean military refrain from firing artillery rounds into the West Sea, but it closed down artillery positions, moved K-9 howitzers from the coast to inland areas to conduct firing drills and spent more than W10 billion transporting equipment to avoid the buffer and no-fly zones (US$1=W1,298). Scrapping the no-fly zone to resume surveillance flights along the border in response to North Korea's provocations should be seen as the minimum defense.

And yet the Minjoo Party, which signed the worthless chit, is accusing the government of "fomenting" tensions. Minjoo Party leader Lee Jae-myung said, "There are concerns of fomenting military provocations or clashes along the demilitarized zone." Even if general elections are approaching and any vague talk of "peace" is likely to appeal to voters, the government cannot compromise national security. Abiding by an agreement that the enemy has blatantly ignored is tantamount to self-harm.

North Korea has no intention of abiding by international law. To Pyongyang, it is merely a means to achieving its own goals and blackmailing others into concessions. The worst way of dealing with such immoral regimes is to trust in their good intentions. Of course the South must continue to try and engage the North peacefully, but it must also maintain a solid defense posture. Thursday marked the 13th anniversary of the deaths of four South Korean civilians on Yeonpyeong Island after North Korea fired 170 artillery rounds at them. North Korea is highly likely to resort to further provocations now the military deal has been scrapped. Seoul must respond firmly so that the North realizes that it has nothing to gain from such behavior any more.

Read this article in Korean

english.chosun.com

3. North Korea launched a satellite, then apparently blew up its booster

I have not seen much reporting on this aspect of the launch.

North Korea launched a satellite, then apparently blew up its booster

After a launch in May, South Korea's navy recovered parts of North Korea's rocket.

STEPHEN CLARK - 11/22/2023, 4:01 PM

Ars Technica · by Stephen Clark · November 22, 2023

Enlarge / A television monitor at a train station in South Korea shows an image of the launch of North Korea's Chollima 1 rocket Tuesday.

Kim Jae-Hwan/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

North Korea launched a small military spy satellite Tuesday on the country's first successful orbital launch since 2016. This, alone, would be newsworthy, but this launch comes with a twist.

A remotely operated camera in Seoul, South Korea, set up to detect meteors streaking through the atmosphere, captured the launch. North Korea's Chŏllima 1 rocket appears on the horizon, climbing higher in the night sky until its booster engine cuts off. Then an upper stage engine fires to continue powering its payload into orbit, leaving behind the rocket's spent expendable booster to fall into the Yellow Sea west of the Korean Peninsula.

Then, the night vision camera recorded a bright fireball. Instead of plunging into the sea, the booster explodes. It's unusual to see a spent booster blow up during the launch of expendable rocket, so this raises questions. Did North Korea intentionally explode its rocket?

Falling into the enemy’s hands

The launch Tuesday was the third flight of North Korea's Chollima 1 rocket, which appears to be more sophisticated than the launch vehicles North Korea used to deploy its first two successful satellites in 2012 and 2016. This rocket is likely based on North Korea's newest intercontinental ballistic missile, the Hwasong 17, designed to deliver nuclear warheads to targets around the world.

With the addition of an upper stage, the design of which is unknown, the Hwasong 17 can be turned into a satellite launcher capable of hauling a payload of several hundred pounds into orbit. Intelligence officials in South Korea believe the new missile and the Chollima 1 rocket use engine technology North Korea acquired from Russia. The booster's propulsion is likely based on the RD-250 engine, which consumes hydrazine in combination with nitrogen tetroxide. When those storable propellants come together, they automatically combust, making the engine design relatively simple and a good solution for a missile that needs to be on long-term alert.

North Korea's first two Chollima 1 launches in May and August ended in failure. After the May launch, South Korean officials said the country's navy recovered relatively large rocket pieces from the Yellow Sea. South Korea’s military said at the time that it would inspect the debris to determine whether foreign parts, such as Russian engine technology, were used on the rocket.

Enlarge / South Korean naval forces recovered pieces of a North Korean rocket after a launch in May.

South Korean Navy

It would make sense that North Korea would take the unusual step to rig its booster to explode before falling intact into the ocean, where South Korean vessels could recover the debris. That seems to be a likely explanation, according to analysts who track North Korea missile launch activity.

Marco Langbroek, a Dutch archeologist who expertly tracks missile launches on his website, concluded the booster explosion "could well have been deliberate" to keep the North Korean rocket from falling into the hands of South Korea.

The rest of the North Korean launch sequence appeared to go according to plan. The second stage of the Chollima 1 rocket continued into space, and a third stage then placed North Korea's Malligyong 1 satellite into orbit.

North Korea's state-run news agency declared the launch a success, and publicly available tracking data from the US military appears to confirm this. The military's tracking radars detected the satellite in a polar orbit roughly 310 miles (500 kilometers) above Earth.

Images released by North Korea before the launch appeared to show the Malligyong 1 satellite is about the size of a refrigerator, larger than the satellites North Korea put into orbit before, but still too small to provide the highest-resolution reconnaissance imagery collected by spy satellites from the United States and other leading space-faring nations.

Ars Technica · by Stephen Clark · November 22, 2023

4. North Korea Terminates Military Agreement with South Korea

Excerpts:

He said South Korea’s partial suspension was an essential measure to protect people’s lives and safety and a corresponding response to North Korea’s provocation along with being a minimal defensive measure. At press time, the United States, ROK and Japan have not yet embarked on any deterrent demonstrations. It is expected that one will be carried out with carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) once the carrier wraps up its port visit in Busan, ROK. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti and Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy James Honea are currently in Japan and will head to South Korea next. On Wednesday the CNO met with Japan Defense Minister Minoru Kihara and the Chief of the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force (JMSDF), Admiral Ryo Sakai while on Thursday the CNO and MCPON celebrated thanksgiving with sailors on board carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76), currently docked in its homeport of Yokosuka, Japan.

North Korea Terminates Military Agreement with South Korea - USNI News

news.usni.org · by Dzirhan Mahadzir · November 23, 2023

DPRK NATA’s Report on Successful Launch of Reconnaissance Satellite. KCNA Image

Pyongyang has terminated the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement with Seoul in response to South Korea’s decision to suspend a part of the agreement due to North Korea’s satellite launch on Tuesday, North Korea announced on Thursday

The 2018 agreement laid down a number of measures that would lower military tensions and accidental military clashes between the two sides. Among them included the dismantling of guard posts along the Demilitarized Zone, a no-fly zone along the DMZ, the cessation of live fire artillery drills and field exercises above the regiment level and above within three miles of the Military Demarcation Line, with a similar ban on live fire and maritime maneuvers exercise along the maritime borders in the East and West Sea and a ban tactical live-fire drills involving fixed-wing aircraft, including the firing of air-to-ground guided weapons within the designated no-fly zones in the eastern and western regions of the MDL.

On Wednesday, in response to North Korea’s satellite launch, South Korea announced it would suspend Article 1, Paragraph 3 of the agreement and that aerial reconnaissance and surveillance along the demarcation line would be restored. North Korea had been informed of the suspension, officials said.

“Those of the ‘Republic of Korea’ can never evade the responsibility for scrapping the north-south military agreement and must pay dearly for it,” North Korea’s Ministry of National Defence said in a statement on Thursday. In the statement, the North Korean MND said that North Korea’s launch of a military reconnaissance satellite was a legitimate and just exercise of sovereignty to closely monitor its enemies’ various military moves around the Korean peninsula.

Kim Jong Un visits Pyongyang General Control Center of NATA.

KCNA Photo

“Nonetheless, the political and military gangsters of the Republic of Korea have gone extremely hysterical with confrontation, labeling the legal right of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea as a violation of U.N., ‘resolutions’ and ‘illegal action’, ” reads the statement.

The North Korean MND said that from now on, the North Korean military would not be bound by the CMA and would restore all military activities halted under the agreement.

“We will withdraw the military steps, taken to prevent military tension and conflict in all spheres, including ground, sea and air, and deploy more powerful armed forces and new-type military hardware in the region along the Military Demarcation Line,” reads the statement.

“The DPRK armed forces will always maintain overwhelming and offensive posture and closely watch the enemy’s confrontation hysteria.”

In a parliamentary session on Thursday, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik warned that “If North Korea stages provocations under the pretext of the suspension, we will respond immediately, strongly and until the end,” according to a ROK MND press release. Shin’s comments were made after the North Korean announcement and during the parliamentary session he stated that North Korea’s launch a clear violation of the U.N. Security Council resolutions and a serious provocation against the international community, once again showing it has no will to abide by the military agreement, “In a situation where our military’s surveillance and reconnaissance is limited, North Korea is strengthening its surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities against us through military reconnaissance satellites,” Shin said.

He said South Korea’s partial suspension was an essential measure to protect people’s lives and safety and a corresponding response to North Korea’s provocation along with being a minimal defensive measure. At press time, the United States, ROK and Japan have not yet embarked on any deterrent demonstrations. It is expected that one will be carried out with carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) once the carrier wraps up its port visit in Busan, ROK. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti and Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy James Honea are currently in Japan and will head to South Korea next. On Wednesday the CNO met with Japan Defense Minister Minoru Kihara and the Chief of the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force (JMSDF), Admiral Ryo Sakai while on Thursday the CNO and MCPON celebrated thanksgiving with sailors on board carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76), currently docked in its homeport of Yokosuka, Japan.

Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti eats Thanksgiving dinner with Sailors aboard USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76), Nov. 23, 2023. US Navy Photo

Elsewhere China issued a brief statement on Thursday in regard to the U.S- Philippines joint patrol in the South China Sea, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theatre Command spokesperson Col Tian Junli, PLAAF, stated that People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) frigate CNS Yuncheng (571) had been conducting routine patrols in the South China Sea since Tuesday, “during this period, the Philippines co-opted external forces to patrol the South China Sea, stir up trouble and hype it up, undermining regional peace and stability and violating the spirit of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. The troops in the theater maintain a high degree of vigilance, resolutely defend national sovereignty, security and maritime rights and interests, and resolutely maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea,” read the statement.

The statement was likely in response to reports on Wednesday by embarked Philippine media on board a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon taking part in the patrol, who reported that during the flight a PLAN frigate was sighted in the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone shadowing the joint patrol along with a Y-9 aircraft.

A Navy release on the patrol stated that littoral combat ship USS Gabrielle Giffords (LCS-10) and a P-8A Poseidon of Patrol Squadron (VP) 8 was participating in the maritime cooperative activity (MCA) alongside Philippine Navy frigate Jose Rizal (FF-150), corvette BRP Conrado Yap (PS-39) and offshore patrol vessel BRP Gregorio del Pilar (PS-15) (ex-USCGC Hamilton (WHEC-715)) and two FA-50 fighters and an A-29B Super Tucano light attack aircraft of the Philippine Air Force.

news.usni.org · by Dzirhan Mahadzir · November 23, 2023

5. Navy chiefs of S. Korea, U.S. discuss boosting cooperation after N.K. satellite launch

Excerpts:

During the talks, Yang called for bolstering the allies' combined defense posture, citing military threats posed by North Korea, according to his office.

"Amidst a grave security situation where North Korea's nuclear and missile threats are advancing, let's upgrade the South Korea-U.S. combined defense posture to another level," he was quoted as saying.

The talks came after Defense Minister Shin Won-sik called for joint maritime drills among South Korea, the United States and Japan, involving the USS Carl Vinson, to strengthen readiness against North Korean threats during his visit to the carrier Wednesday.

(LEAD) Navy chiefs of S. Korea, U.S. discuss boosting cooperation after N.K. satellite launch | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · November 24, 2023

(ATTN: ADDS photo, more details in paras 5-7)

SEOUL, Nov. 24 (Yonhap) -- The chiefs of the South Korean and U.S. navies met aboard a U.S. aircraft carrier Friday to discuss enhancing military cooperation, officials said, amid heightened tensions over North Korea's spy satellite launch this week.

Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Yang Yong-mo and his U.S. counterpart, Adm. Lisa Franchetti, held the talks aboard the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier currently docked at a naval base in Busan, 320 kilometers southeast of Seoul.

The meeting took place after North Korea launched the satellite Tuesday night in defiance of U.N. Security Council resolutions banning Pyongyang from any launches using ballistic missile technology.

The USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier enters a key naval base in Busan, 320 kilometers southeast of Seoul, on Nov. 21, 2023. (Yonhap)

During the talks, Yang called for bolstering the allies' combined defense posture, citing military threats posed by North Korea, according to his office.

"Amidst a grave security situation where North Korea's nuclear and missile threats are advancing, let's upgrade the South Korea-U.S. combined defense posture to another level," he was quoted as saying.

The talks came after Defense Minister Shin Won-sik called for joint maritime drills among South Korea, the United States and Japan, involving the USS Carl Vinson, to strengthen readiness against North Korean threats during his visit to the carrier Wednesday.

Franchetti, who arrived in South Korea on Thursday for a two-day visit, took office as the U.S. Navy's top officer earlier this month. She previously served as the commander of the U.S. Naval Forces Korea from 2013 to 2015.

The USS Carl Vinson -- the third U.S. Navy carrier to visit South Korea this year -- entered the naval base Tuesday.

Adm. Yang Yong-mo (L), chief of naval operations, holds talks with his U.S. counterpart, Adm. Lisa Franchetti, aboard the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier docked at a naval base in Busan, 320 kilometers southeast of Seoul, on Nov. 24, 2023, in this photo provided by South Korea's Navy. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · November 24, 2023

6. Minor quake hits near N. Korea's nuclear test site: weather agency

I will again ask the question to which I have never received an answer from any geological experts. Have the 6 nuclear tests in this area changed the seismic conditions in the area and made it more prone to earthquake activity?

Minor quake hits near N. Korea's nuclear test site: weather agency | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Oh Seok-min · November 23, 2023

SEOUL, Nov. 23 (Yonhap) -- A 2.6 magnitude earthquake struck near a North Korean nuclear test site Thursday, the latest in a series of natural temblors that hit the region recently, South Korea's state weather agency said.

The tremor occurred about 40 kilometers northwest of Kilju, North Hamgyong Province, at 9:21 p.m., according to the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA).

The epicenter was at a latitude of 41.30 degrees north and a longitude of 129.20 degrees east at a depth of 15 km, the KMA said, adding that the earthquake is believed to be a natural one.

The latest one came on the heels of two separate earthquakes in the day -- one with a 2.5 magnitude that took place at 7:54 a.m. and the other one with a 2.2 magnitude at 12:42 p.m., the weather agency said.

Kilju is home to the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, where North Korea conducted all six of its nuclear tests.

This image, captured from the United States Geological Survey website, shows the position of Punggye-ri (red mark), a North Korean nuclear test site in Kilju, North Hamgyong Province. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

graceoh@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Oh Seok-min · November 23, 2023

7. PUAC-Yonhap forum opens amid security challenges following N.K. satellite launch

I hope the results of this forum will emphasize a new strategy based on a human rights upfront approach, a sophisticated information campaign (with multiple objectives from deterrence to collective action, new emerging leadership to preparation for unification) to the pursuit of a free and unified Korea.

The forum must conclude the following:

Bottom Line The only way we are going to see an end to nuclear development and military threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity is through achievement of unification:
the establishment of a free and unified Korea that is secure and stable, nonnuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people.
A free and unified Korea or in short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).

PUAC-Yonhap forum opens amid security challenges following N.K. satellite launch | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · November 24, 2023

SEOUL, Nov. 24 (Yonhap) -- The Peaceful Unification Advisory Council (PUAC) and Yonhap News Agency held a forum Friday to assess the environment for unification and discuss North Korea's evolving threats following its launch of a spy satellite earlier this week.

The event took place at the Grand Walkerhill Seoul hotel under the main theme of "International cooperation aiming to realize freedom, peace, and prosperity on the Korean Peninsula," bringing together key government officials and security experts.

PUAC is a presidential consultative body established to draw up policies on democratic and peaceful unification.

The inaugural 2023 Global Dialogue on Korean Peninsula Unification came as part of efforts to seek international cooperation amid North Korea's missile and nuclear threats as well as a prolonged war in Ukraine and the escalating Israel-Hamas conflict.

It followed Pyongyang's launch of a military spy satellite late Tuesday, which the recalcitrant regime claimed to have put into orbit in its third attempt. North Korea vowed to launch several more satellites within a short span of time to enhance its self-defense capabilities.

Participants of the 2023 Global Dialogue on Korean Peninsula Unification, co-hosted by the Peaceful Unification Advisory Council and Yonhap News Agency, pose for a group photo during the event held at the Grand Walkerhill Seoul hotel on Nov. 24, 2023. (Yonhap)

Participants called for a new approach to reunification and responding to the North's provocations.

"The dialogue for unification should be conducted under the clear basic principle of free democracy. An alternative means should be sought within the frame of respecting universal values such as freedom and human rights," Kim Kwan-yong, executive vice chairperson of PUAC, said in his opening remarks.

Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho, Seoul's point man on North Korea, vowed to strengthen what he called "unification diplomacy" to better realize the vision of a unified Korean Peninsula that is free and at peace, as supported by the Camp David Principles and the Downing Street Accord.

"I am certain that North Korea would have to opt for a change if the international community, under close cooperation, continuously makes efforts to show the North that there is nothing to gain from wrong acts such as nuclear development," Kim said.

Kim Kwan-yong, executive vice chairperson of the Peaceful Unification Advisory Council (PUAC), delivers his opening remarks at the 2023 Global Dialogue on Korean Peninsula Unification, co-hosted by PUAC and Yonhap News Agency, at the Grand Walkerhill Seoul hotel on Nov. 24, 2023. (Yonhap)

Seong Ghi-hong, CEO and president of Yonhap News Agency, called for efforts to establish a solid security posture.

"While the situation surrounding the Korean Peninsula appears to be murky, it is at such times we have to continue with efforts to assess the situation in a calm and level-headed manner and establish a solid security posture," Seong said.

Among the experts taking part in the discussions were Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at Hudson Institute, Lee Che-chuan, research fellow at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taiwan, Georgy Toloraya, director of the Center for Asian Strategy at the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Ken Endo, a professor at the University of Tokyo.

The sessions -- organized under the themes of "Freedom, Peace, and Prosperity of Korean Peninsula: Vision and Strategy," "Democracy, Freedom, and Human Rights in North Korea" and "Indo-Pacific Strategy and the Future of Korean Peninsula" -- will be livestreamed via YouTube on PUAC's official channel.

The first day of the forum, which consisted of closed-door discussions by experts on themes including public diplomacy on unification and North Korea's political situation, took place Thursday.

Seong Ghi-hong, CEO and president of Yonhap News Agency, delivers his welcoming address at the 2023 Global Dialogue on Korean Peninsula Unification, co-hosted by the Peaceful Unification Advisory Council and Yonhap News Agency, at the Grand Walkerhill Seoul hotel on Nov. 24, 2023. (Yonhap)

mlee@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · November 24, 2023

8. ＜Inside N. Korea＞ Illegally printed study materials gain in popularity…How is this possible given N. Korea’s strict controls on publishing?

I hope all the naysayers out there will pay attention to understand the resistance potential that does exist inside north Korea.

Collective action is possible and change will happen. We need to nurture the resistance and give them the tools to do what they are destined to do.

Excerpts:

“People who graduated from Kim Il Sung University or those with excellent education credentials have been creating study materials on the sly and printing them out to sell to specific students. Students are lining up to get the study materials, particularly the children of officials.”

Of course, these kinds of things happened in the past as well. However, these recent developments are important because despite the harsh crackdowns on unsanctioned printing, unofficial published works are being sold in the markets for economic profit or to fulfill the North Korean people’s universal desire to enter good universities.

North Korean authorities place strict controls on the use of printers and copiers. Enterprises, organizations and schools must get multiple levels of permission to print even a small amount of documents. Many copiers are under lock and key. The private possession of small printers is not acceptable. If someone is found to have operated an illegal printer, they could face political repercussions.

＜Inside N. Korea＞ Illegally printed study materials gain in popularity…How is this possible given N. Korea’s strict controls on publishing?

asiapress.org

The cover of an English textbook for third year elementary school students published in 2015. The cover is an illustration of the “Unha” rocket heading up to space. (ASIAPRESS)

Recently, publications not sanctioned by the government have grown in popularity in North Korea. How can such publications be popular in a country like North Korea, where unofficial printed materials are severely restricted? This article explores the background and reasons for the popularity of illegal printed materials, which are spreading largely through the country’s “private education market.” (KANG Ji-won)

◆ Illegally printed textbooks are increasingly being sold to students and private tutors

In late August, a reporting partner in Hyesan, Yanggang Province, told ASIAPRESS that materials not published by the government are being distributed inside North Korea. Most of the publications are study materials, which students use to prepare for university exams. He also said that people with the authority or ability to print documents are selling the printed materials for money.

“People who graduated from Kim Il Sung University or those with excellent education credentials have been creating study materials on the sly and printing them out to sell to specific students. Students are lining up to get the study materials, particularly the children of officials.”

Of course, these kinds of things happened in the past as well. However, these recent developments are important because despite the harsh crackdowns on unsanctioned printing, unofficial published works are being sold in the markets for economic profit or to fulfill the North Korean people’s universal desire to enter good universities.

North Korean authorities place strict controls on the use of printers and copiers. Enterprises, organizations and schools must get multiple levels of permission to print even a small amount of documents. Many copiers are under lock and key. The private possession of small printers is not acceptable. If someone is found to have operated an illegal printer, they could face political repercussions.

Successive North Korean governments have thoroughly prohibited their people from creating devices that they are unable to control. Of course, these prohibitions have been aimed at preventing the free distribution of information. Then, how have the textbooks ASIAPRESS learned about through its reporting partner been printed? Someone at an enterprise or other organization was probably bribed to print the materials in secret, or someone might have used a small printer they are secretly keeping in their possession.

◆ Business people can earn 100 times the monthly salary of a school teacher

The reporting partner told ASIAPRESS that people generally create their own study materials for academic subjects critical to passing the university exams, including English, foreign languages, mathematics, physics, and chemistry; or they pay someone in Pyongyang for study materials created outside of North Korea, which they reorganize and then sell to students.

“Usually, foreign language study materials of about 20-30 pages go for 35,000 won, and they can be sold 1-2 times a month. They can’t be sold to just anyone; the materials are bought up by those who very serious about studying something.”

*1,000 North Korean won is equal to around 160 South Korean won.

If someone sells textbooks to 25 people twice a month, they would earn around 1,750,000 North Korean won (around 280,000 South Korean won). This would be equal to 343 kilograms of white rice at black market prices (1 kilogram of white rice in November goes for 5,100 North Korean won), which would be 100 times more than the average salary middle school teachers have received over the past several years.

◆ How did this all come to be?

The reporting partner said that students and the parents of students are lining up in droves to buy these study materials. A market has been created for the materials due to high demand and the factors motivating suppliers to produce products for sale. The study materials do not contain anti-state content, so the risk to suppliers and purchasers is relatively low.

Moreover, the people charged with cracking down on such unofficial published materials are the same people who want to buy them. This contradiction shows that crackdowns will fail to have any real effect.

“There’s a lot of wealthy people in one district of the city, and a graduate of Kim Il Sung University is selling study materials to 16 people in the area. Most of the buyers are children of officials or donju, so they’re not afraid of getting caught and nobody sees any problem with what they’re doing.”

The reporting partner said that there is no point in the government cracking down on such a popular business, and that even if the government orders a stronger crackdown on illegally published study materials, the children of party, government and law enforcement and judicial officials will continue to be able to receive well-known study materials from tutors on a regular basis.

◆ What is the significance of the sale of illegal published works in N. Korea?

Given these circumstances, what impact is this business of selling illegally published materials having on North Korean society? While it is too soon to make any firm conclusions, it is safe to say that there is the possibility that the marketization of study materials will give people the broad idea that selling intellectual property - including printed study materials - is a way to earn money.

This means that the authorities will have a difficult time monopolizing control over the publishing of various materials. The situation is similar to the failure of the authorities to eliminate illegal drugs and illegal foreign currency transactions despite harsh crackdowns.

That being said, what is important is that a network could be created to share information among North Korea’s middle and upper classes. Currently, the system in place appears to be nothing more than a way for business people to earn money from ambitious students who dream of success by attending good schools. However, it is encouraging just to know that such a firm system that allows the circulating of knowledge and information exists in North Korea. This kind of system has the potential to be powerful depending on what kind of information it spreads through society.

※ ASIAPRESS communicates with reporting partners through Chinese cell phones smuggled into North Korea.

Map of North Korea ( ASIAPRESS)

asiapress.org

9. How advanced are North Korea's ICBM capabilities?

We have to deal with north Korea as it really is and not as we would wish it to be. The regime has an ICBM capability and it can most likely target US territory. It is where we are now. We have to deal with that. But we must not deal with it by talking about trading Seattle for Seoul because that plays into Kim Jong Un's political warfare strategy. He wants those arguments to be made with the hopes that the US will try to appease him by removing US troops (which will not make the US less vulnerable and will still not prevent Kim from targeting Seattle - LA or DC). He wants the ICBM capability to split the ROK/US alliance. We must understand the nature, objectives, and strategy of the regime and conduct a superior form of political warfare while maintaining the highest state of combined military readiness to sustain a foundation of deterrence. The good news is that we are demonstrating the highest level of combined military readiness in over a decade. But we must begin an aggressive political warfare strategy, the heart of which is a sophisticated and holistic information campaign.

How advanced are North Korea's ICBM capabilities?

The Korea Times · November 24, 2023

A military reconnaissance satellite is launched from the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground in North Pyongan Province, North Korea, Tuesday. Yonhap

Launch likely to have involved Russian assistance : spy agency

By Kim Hyun-bin

North Korea's recent launch of a space launch vehicle (SLV) has set off alarm bells in the U.S. and worldwide, intensifying concerns about progress in the regime's intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capabilities. The U.S. National Security Council strongly denounced North Korea's manipulation of ballistic missile technology in the guise of an SLV.

North Korea launched its military reconnaissance satellite from the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground in North Pyongan Province last Tuesday. Experts posit that North Korea is using satellite launch tests to refine the precision of its ICBMs, employing SLV technology specifically for dedicated ICBM purposes. This has fueled perceptions within the international community that North Korea is advancing its ICBM program.

There are also concerns about Russia's involvement in North Korea's technological advancements, with speculation about Russian assistance in data transmission between ground stations and satellites.

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) confirmed the success of North Korea's reconnaissance satellite launch, and suggested Russian involvement.

"The success of this launch is likely to have involved assistance from Russia," an NIS official said during a National Assembly intelligence committee meeting, Thursday.

"During the summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Putin publicly expressed his willingness to support the launch itself. After the summit, North Korea provided Russia with blueprints and data related to the first and second launches, and there is evidence that Russia provided the analysis results."

The Chollima-1 SLV shares critical technologies with an ICBM, raising concerns that, if North Korea successfully equips it with a nuclear warhead and reentry technology, it could be repurposed as a dedicated ICBM for nuclear strikes.

Military assessments indicate that North Korea's reconnaissance satellite has entered a stable orbit, raising concerns about the country posing a new threat to the U.S. and South Korea by enhancing its space surveillance capabilities.

The recent launch of the Chollima-1, using liquid fuel propulsion similar to the Hwasong-15 and Hwasong-17, is considered a test of the Hwasong-15 and 17 at the optimum angle of ascent. This year witnessed four such launches, including Hwasong-15 and 17 tests and two Hwasong-18 solid-fuel ICBM tests, all at high angles.

Experts suggest North Korea will use the data from the recent launch to enhance the performance of its existing ICBMs.

Regarding advancements, a defense expert noted that the preparation time required for liquid-fuel rockets allows a window for detection and pre-emptive measures in the event of a potential nuclear launch.

"Liquid rockets have better thrust-to-weight ratios than solid rockets, allowing them to propel heavier warheads over longer distances. Russia possesses such capabilities, making it difficult for the U.S. to accurately track the trajectory of Russian ICBMs," said Lee Il-woo, a director at the Korea Defense Network. "However, in the case of North Korea, the launch site is quite obvious, making it challenging for North Korea to launch undetected and most likely suppressed in advance."

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspects the operational status of a reconnaissance satellite at the National Aerospace Development Administration in Pyongyang, Wednesday. Yonhap

If North Korea successfully deploys multiple reconnaissance satellites, the space surveillance threat becomes more severe to the U.S. and South Korea.

Military sources said, even with the low-resolution satellite launched this time, efforts to secure previously unavailable space surveillance capabilities should not be underestimated.

The estimated resolution of North Korea's reconnaissance satellite is three to five meters, allowing limited monitoring of major U.S. military bases, movements in Guam and the deployment of U.S. strategic assets in South Korea.

"North Korea's announcement of additional launches suggests the possibility of launching multiple satellites. Despite having lower resolution, these satellites play a role in roughly locating the deployment of U.S. strategic assets, such as aircraft carriers, around the Korean Peninsula," Lee said.

However, with potential Russian support, if North Korea develops high-resolution reconnaissance satellites and deploys more than 10, it could monitor key military activities of the U.S. and South Korea almost in real time. The military authorities express concern that if North Korea integrates nuclear missiles and multiple high-performance reconnaissance satellites targeting the U.S., it could severely impact U.S. deterrence.

The Korea Times · November 24, 2023

10. Hoeryong security officials turn to violence to extract confessions from remittance brokers

Yes this is a threat to the regine.

This indicates the extreme brutality of the regime and its true believers. But there are alot more Koreans in the north who are no longer true believers because they know about the outside world yet they have to do what is necessary to survive and of course their family members who have escaped to the South try to help their remaining family members with funds to sustain them.

This could be a conduit to get funding to support resistance if anyone wants to get serious about helping the Korean people in the north.

Hoeryong security officials turn to violence to extract confessions from remittance brokers

There has been a number of incidents in which detainees have been beaten so badly they’ve been taken to the hospital," a source told Daily NK

By Lee Chae Un - 2023.11.24 1:14pm

dailynk.com

Hoeryong security officials turn to violence to extract confessions from remittance brokers | Daily NK English

A photo of Hoeryong taken in 2013 (Raymond Cunningham, Flickr, Creative Commons)

Security officials in Hoeryong are making a habit of exercising extreme violence against people who are detained for making illegal remittances, Daily NK has learned.

“The brutal behavior of state security agents and jailers in Hoeryong has been crossing the line of late. There has been a number of incidents in which detainees have been beaten so badly they’ve been taken to the hospital,” a source in North Hamgyong Province told Daily NK on Monday, speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons.

According to the source, a fortysomething remittance broker surnamed Kim was apprehended in the act of delivering money to the family of a defector in Hoeryong on Nov. 4.

State security agents immediately brought Kim to the station and demanded that he tell them everything about whom he had sent money to and how the funds were transferred. But the broker insisted this was his first time to make a remittance, knowing that a full confession would only put him in a worse predicament and increase the size of the bribe he would have to pay.

Realizing that threats would not work, the state security agents turned to violence, kicking Kim. One of the agents even brandished a thick cudgel with sharp nails embedded in it, threatening to kill the broker if he did not confess.

When his barbarous treatment drove Kim to scream, the agents continued their assault while piling on verbal abuse, telling him to “stop being a baby” and saying he deserved to be “beaten to death.” Kim eventually lost consciousness, just one week into his detention.

“Detainees can only be treated at an external hospital with the permission of the chief medical officer. Kim was whisked off to the hospital after emergency care failed to bring him to his senses,” the source related.

That was not the only incident of its kind. On Nov. 7, a twentysomething man was also taken to the hospital after a severe beating by state security agents and jailors. The young man had been arrested while delivering money to a family of defectors at the request of a remittance broker.

The young man was beaten because he stubbornly refused to tell state security agents the name of the remittance broker who had given him the money. While in detention, he was set upon by the jailers for fidgeting because of a cramp in his finger.

The beating caused brain damage that left the young man unable to speak. He was eventually sent to a hospital outside of the jail to receive care.

“The families of these injured people are responsible for arranging all the medication needed for their treatment at the hospital. Both family members and other witnesses have expressed their criticism and resentment of the state security agents’ behavior. The agents’ brutal behavior is continuing because they don’t face any consequences for their inhuman beatings so long as they don’t kill the detainees,” the source said.

Translated by David Carruth. Edited by Robert Lauler.

Daily NK works with a network of sources who live inside North Korea, China and elsewhere. Their identities remain anonymous due to security concerns. More information about Daily NK’s reporting partner network and information gathering activities can be found on our FAQ page here.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

Lee Chae Un

Lee Chae Un is one of Daily NK’s full-time journalists. She can be reached at dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

dailynk.com

11. Why a 'Historic' Inter-Korean Military Pact Broke Down

I think it is wrong to give credit to the CMA for reducing tension or the chance of conflict. A piece of paper, whether the CMA or an end of war declaration, does not trump the steel in the artillery tubes arrayed along the DMZ. The north never engaged in the one aspect of the CMA that had any chance of preventing miscalculation and that was the committee that was supposed to be set up to maintain communication and contact to implement the CMA. That illustrated the true regime intent.

Excerpts:

However, even if many U.S. officials privately continue to support the CMA, they would not publicly criticize the decision of a key ally such as South Korea, said Moon, the former foreign affairs advisor.

"The Biden administration's basic stance on the Korean Peninsula is the stable management of the status quo," said Moon. "There could now be a higher probability of accidental military clashes, and that won't be helpful to U.S. strategic interests."

Chun In-bum, a retired lieutenant general in the South Korean army, said regardless of the outcome of the CMA, or its potential for success in the first place, it represented a "good effort, especially with a new North Korean leader and the threat of conflict at the time."

"It is unfortunate for everyone that the CMA is now declared defunct," said Chun. "Why does it matter whose fault this is?"

Why a 'Historic' Inter-Korean Military Pact Broke Down

November 24, 2023 6:42 AM

William Gallo

voanews.com · November 24, 2023

SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA —

A 2018 military agreement, once hailed as a historic attempt to reduce tensions between North and South Korea, appeared to reach its demise this week, after both countries announced measures to step away from the pact.

Hours after the successful Tuesday launch of North Korea's first military spy satellite, the administration of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol announced a partial suspension of the accord, known as the Comprehensive Military Agreement, or CMA.

As part of the announcement, South Korea said its military will resume reconnaissance and surveillance flights in border areas. Such activity was banned under the CMA, which established buffer zones, no fly zones, and prohibited a wide range of other military activity near the border.

In response, North Korea on Thursday announced it would "immediately restore all military measures" halted under the deal and vowed to "deploy more powerful armed forces and new-type military hardware" in the border region.

The CMA was perhaps the most concrete outcome of the 2018-19 diplomacy between the two Koreas, which saw three meetings between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his then South Korean counterpart, President Moon Jae-in.

In Seoul, debate raged over who is to blame for the collapse of the accord, the latest in a cycle of escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

Moon Chung-in, who played a key role in the inter-Korean diplomacy as a foreign affairs advisor for ex-president Moon, said Yoon had been determined to kill the CMA for ideological reasons, and that North Korea's satellite launch provided an occasion for him to do it.

In Moon's view, the CMA served as a "last guardrail" to prevent accidental clashes in the border region, which will now become "a much more volatile and dangerous place."

"The problem is that there is a greater chance for the escalation of these accidental clashes into a full-blown conflict, even the North Korean potential use of tactical nuclear weapons," he told VOA in an interview.

North Korean violations

The conservative Yoon, who has slammed what he calls the "fake peace" initiative of his liberal predecessor, had for months threatened to scrap the CMA, pointing to North Korean violations of the agreement.

In one particularly high-profile violation, North Korea last year sent five small reconnaissance drones across the border, with one making it all the way to the northern edge of the capital, Seoul.

(LEAD) N. Korean leader lauds military spy satellite as 'space guard' | Yonhap News Agency

Military Agreement with N.Korea Wasn't Worth the Paper It's Written on

North Korea launched a satellite, then apparently blew up its booster

After a launch in May, South Korea's navy recovered parts of North Korea's rocket.

Falling into the enemy’s hands

North Korea Terminates Military Agreement with South Korea - USNI News

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(LEAD) Navy chiefs of S. Korea, U.S. discuss boosting cooperation after N.K. satellite launch | Yonhap News Agency

Minor quake hits near N. Korea's nuclear test site: weather agency | Yonhap News Agency

PUAC-Yonhap forum opens amid security challenges following N.K. satellite launch | Yonhap News Agency

＜Inside N. Korea＞ Illegally printed study materials gain in popularity…How is this possible given N. Korea’s strict controls on publishing?

◆ Illegally printed textbooks are increasingly being sold to students and private tutors

◆ Business people can earn 100 times the monthly salary of a school teacher

◆ How did this all come to be?

◆ What is the significance of the sale of illegal published works in N. Korea?

How advanced are North Korea's ICBM capabilities?

Hoeryong security officials turn to violence to extract confessions from remittance brokers

Why a 'Historic' Inter-Korean Military Pact Broke Down