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Locals report that Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), the al-Qaeda branch that operates in Burkina Faso and Mali is setting its sights on expanding deeper into the territory on the Ghanian border with Burkina Faso. This comes after the group had failed to establish on the Ivory Coast border, no doubt due to Ivorian security presence patrolling the border.
Additionally, there are local reports that JNIM used to have bases in Kulungugu, Pusiga, Pulmakom and Widana on the Ghanian side of the border with Burkina Faso; which sharply contrasts security forces' position that there is no JNIM activity insider Ghanian territory. However, this is not at all surprising that there are JNIM camps in Ghana and considering the high level of corruption, as it is throughout Africa, JNIM was no doubt allowed to establish after bribing the local security officials. They also likely used intimidation and coercion to force border guards to leave them to go about their business.
It is clear that JNIM adapts quickly to their circumstances thanks to their nomadic lifestyle and knowledge of navigation and desert survival.
Residents report that the N16 between Tenkodogo and Cinkanse in Burkina experience frequent assaults. JNIM already has control of the N22 highway in Burkina Faso leading into Djibo where they have the city under a blockade, and TRAC deduces that JNIM has employed the same tactics of ambushing security forces and food convoys, to take control of the N16.
The N16 is 105km (65+ miles) long and is strategic roadway since it leads to the JNIM border crossing at Cinkanse where the three borders of Burkina, Togo and Ghana meet. What is unusual is that those in the area report that the cell on the N16 goes from Cinkanse into Togo and then west into Ghana, as opposed to going into Ghana from Burkina Faso directly. The simplest explanation for this is that Ghana has reinforced their border with Burkina, but failed to reinforce the border with Togo.
That being said, back on 16 March 2023, Burkinabe security forces claimed that "multiple terrorists" were "neutralized" in Soudougui on the Togo border in Koulpelogo Province, Burkina Faso.
TRAC posits that JNIM will expand deeper into the Ghana-Burkina Faso borderlands, particularly in the most vulnerable areas like Kompienga. Additionally, recruitment into JNIM will continue to increase as a result of the military's incompetence and accidental killing of civilians in the area.
Nonetheless, it has to be said that Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISGS) is also looking to expand into the previously stable parts of the region including Ghana, not to mention that this push by JNIM comes at a time when ISGS is actively seeking to expel JNIM from their strongholds in neighboring Mali, to ultimately take the city of Kidal in the Kidal Region of Mali. In the last week alone, there have been four ISGS attacks in JNIM strongholds in the Sahel.
It would be a huge propaganda and strategic win for ISGS if they managed to entrench in the Ghana borderlands. Islamic State insiders continue to hint at ISGS' presence in the area, celebrating the targeted assassination of members of the Ghanian interior ministry back in April 2023.
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