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RESEARCH MAILING -- CHANGES / SIGNUP

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$1 TRILLION YTD MARKET CAP GAINS

MARKET CLOSES DOWN FOR ONLY THE THIRD WEEK IN 17 WEEKS

Click All Charts to Enlarge - Gord's Subscriber Chart Deck (CLICK HERE)

YOUR DESK TOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

Asset Managers and Leveraged Funds have begun "Getting Out of Dodge!". These are typically smart, well informed, and knowledgeable investors. When they start taking risk off the table you need to pay attention.

THE DOTCOM BUBBLE'S "CISCO" v THE CURRENT 'IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE' & "NVIDIA".

2 - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

CORPORATE STOCK BUYBACKS

I have written that the problem is when markets are this elevated the question is where will new buyers come from? When everyone is in, who is left to buy and keep stocks rising?

The unique answer to this dilemma is something the markets have historically never seen. That is corporate buyback rates within extremely narrow breadth.

What we have witnessed is the MAG-7 stocks being heavily bought back by the MAG-7 themselves!

Though the MAG-7 slowed their purchases in 2023 (see chart above), their 4Q filings show the group is currently authorized to repurchase $215 billion in stock, 30% higher than the level authorized at the same time last year ($166 billion). This is led by META (+$30 bn yr/yr), NVDA (+$15 bn), and AAPL (+$12 bn).

TO KEEP THIS MARKET RISING FURTHER THE MAG-7 MUST CONTINUE TO FILL THE AUTHORIZED REPURCHASE BUDGETS

.... ALONG WITH FOREIGN MARKETS (CHART RIGHT)

As Peter Tchir of Academy Securities recently observed (and it indirectly relates to MAG-7 Buyback volumes above):

One thing that I think we have been seeing of late is that anecdotally it looks like relatively small net flows are having a larger than normal price impact on the markets. I’m not sure what caused the Nasdaq 100 to spike from 2:30pm until 2:45pm yesterday, only to see two heavy selling “pencils” (a line that goes straight down on the chart) into the close. Across the board I wonder if the “faux liquidity” we have created with so much electronic and algorithmic trading is obscuring an unnervingly low level of true liquidity – in both directions.

While I suspect that “this time is different,” I can’t help but drag out When Price Becomes “Just” a Number.  My experience is that there are times when price “becomes just a number.” And whatever that number is supposed to mean gets lost in the shuffle of short squeezes, chart watchers, gamma squeezes, and the like. I’m not sure we are seeing that in this market, but it is in the back of my mind and certainly seems relevant to the next “trillion dollar” mistake!

3 - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

THE DOLLAR & GOLD

In our Mid-Week "Gord's Desk Top" we highlighted a potential move lower in the dollar which we expected would take gold higher. This is in fact what we subsequently witnessed. There is more to go if our sub-degree Head & Shoulders chart highlighted below is correct.

YOUR DESK TOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

Gold continued higher from its breakout. The Elliott Wave count suggests that the first 5 Wave Impulse wave may be in.

A consolidation in the form of a Wave 2 corrective pattern is likely to soon occur.

YOUR DESK TOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

THE MAGNIFICENT 7

The pull back in the Mag-7 stocks this week was quite pronounced. The market appears exhausted!

CHART BELOW

• We have reached the vertical lift part of the parabolic (geometric) lift shown by the dashed red line.
• We have Divergence with momentum (bottom pane).
• Momentum appears to be rolling over (bottom pane).

MATASII CROSS: WEEKLY - CONTINUES TO SIGNAL A MAG-7 BUY

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

US EQUITY MARKETS

CONTROL PACKAGE

There are FIVE charts we have outlined in prior chart packages that we will continue to watch closely as a "control set".

1. The S&P 500 (CHART LINK)
2. The DJIA (CHART LINK)
3. The Russell 2000 through the IWM ETF (CHART LINK),
4. The MAGNIFICENT SEVEN (CHART ABOVE WITH MATASII CROSS - LINK)
5. Nvidia (NVDA) (CHART LINK)

S&P 500 - Daily - Our Thought Experiment

Our Though Experiment suggests we have likely put in a near term top. Our relative confidence comes from the fact we hit our 5186 (see Parabolic lift chart at top of the Market Perspective page) and immediately pull backed to close at 5124. Additionally the pull back occurred as we touched the mid-channel mark of our rising trend channel.

We are likely to now consolidate before possibly completing one final small impulse higher (black impulse wave).

NOTE: To reiterate what I previously wrote - "the black labeled activity shown below, between now and July, looks like a "Killing Field" where the algos take Day Traders, "Dip Buyers", "Gamma Guys" and FOMO's all out on stretchers!"

YOUR DESKTOP / TABLET / PHONE ANNOTATED CHART

Macro Analytics Chart Above:  SUBSCRIBER LINK

STOCK MONITOR: What We Spotted

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