Two new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memos address protest potential in major Russian cities. Andrei Semenov demonstrates that grassroots mobilization against the authorities is quite common there, posing a challenge for the Kremlin. And Irina Busygina and Ekaterina Paustyan find the greatest protest potential in cities with young and educated citizens who have access to civil society resources.
 
Samuel Charap revisits the Istanbul communiqué that first leaked in late March, arguing its “neutral, not NATO” proposal for Ukraine could help end Russia’s invasion and create lasting peace. Jordan Gans-Morse, though, cautions against a “premature cease-fire or an unstable peace settlement” and concludes that militarily backing Ukraine remains the only viable path forward for now. Volodymyr Dubovyk suggests Putin could OK a deal allowing Ukraine to export its grain in order to project an “image of a benevolent and wise leader who contributes to the common good.”

Who bears responsibility for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? Kirill Rogov argues this is not simply “Putin’s war,” pointing to contributions from Russian elites, who Gans-Morse notes often try to launder their reputations through charitable contributions and ties to the West. For Kathryn Stoner, Putin’s pandemic-driven isolation, American political polarization, and European division and distractions all likely influenced the invasion’s timing. Richard Arnold writes Russia’s far right is divided on the war’s pretext and success, but still generally pro-war. Elizabeth Wishnick analyzes what Russian experts on China say and finds many feel the war has revealed the limits of the Sino-Russian relationship. And Maria Snegovaya predicts an increase in random disruptions in Russia’s manufacturing chains as sanctions impact the flow of technologies and supplies.

Commenting on the difficulties of banning individual Russian hockey players who do not speak up against the invasion, Timothy Frye points out that “if the Rangers win the Stanley Cup, it’s not really a propaganda victory for Russia.” Sebastien Peyrouse reports on Central Asia's environmental and climate change challenges and argues stakeholders should do more to support research, strengthen cooperation, and reverse the damage.

Event
 
Thursday, June 9, 9:30 AM – 11:00 AM (EDT) (Virtual): Policy Exchange Discussion: Guaranteeing Ukraine’s Long-Run Security with Petro Burkovskyi, Olexiy Haran, Mariya Omelicheva, Maria Popova, Oxana Shevel, and Paul D’Anieri.