In a new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, Ralph Clem and Erik Herron argue a “massive reconstruction effort for Ukraine, guided by that country’s government and popular will,” should start now, even before the war ends. Needs are immense. Volodymyr Dubovyk reports Russia’s efforts to inflict “maximum pain” on Ukraine have left 11 million Ukrainians displaced, two-thirds children, even as Moscow tries to frame population movements to its advantage through migration policy, writes Caress Schenk.

Russia made several mistakes in its invasion that are having consequences now. For one thing, President Vladimir Putin appears to have been guided by outmoded Soviet-era “primordialist” thinking about identity that essentially backfired on him, according to Science News, quoting Elise Giuliano, Henry Hale, Volodymyr Kulyk, and Oxana Shevel. Dmitry Gorenburg says Moscow made basic logistical errors that culminated in its troops fighting in five different directions and never achieving air superiority.

The Kremlin’s dilemma is now that protracted war poses serious long-term problems, while a quick end to the invasion is incompatible with its political aims, argues Pavel Baev. But looking toward the invasion’s new focus on the southern and eastern parts of Ukraine, Samuel Charap says Mariupol is “both a stepping-stone to the encirclement strategy and part of the end game.”
 
In another new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, Stephen Crowley writes that Russia’s economy has already plunged into a deep recession (despite the ruble’s recovery, observes Peter Rutland), but that revolution is unlikely so long as the Kremlin can keep people blaming the West rather than the Kremlin. Research by John Reuter and others indicates mass support for Putin may hinge on “perceptions that he is popular.” For Maria Snegovaya, though, history suggests the Kremlin will survive even a losing war. Also bolstering it is Putin’s reliance on Soviet-era nomenklatura cadres, write Snegovaya and Kirill Petrov.

Addressing international responses, Charap and Dmitri Alperovitch call on Washington to have a playbook ready to deploy immediately after a first wave of Russian cyberattacks. Scott Radnitz posits Ukraine’s next challenge will be to maintain international attention on the invasion and continue its domination in the information sphere. Volodymyr Ishchenko wonders why the US, aware the invasion was looming, didn’t do more to prevent or thwart it. Arkady Moshes writes President Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s support for Russia’s invasion is unpopular and likely to hasten his regime’s demise. All Central Asian countries, according to Emil Dzhuraev, have sought some form of neutrality.