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In today's large data dump, the trade found more reasons to sell off than to buy. Overall, the market reaction has been very limited after the report, but bearish undertones remain. The fact that the USDA did not change any Brazilian numbers was what I think led the market lower today. Overall, stocks were bearish-neutral, with the USDA pushing off many of the opportunities they had to make changes over to the May WASDE report. Right now, there is a 13.04mmt difference between the USDA and CONAB on corn, and 8.48mmt on soybeans. What does one organization know that the other doesn't? The same thing is happening with Argentina and the USDA. Apparently, the USDA currently believes the problem to be more isolated than the Rosario Grain Exchange. This is resulting in a 5.5mmt on corn and 1.0mmt on soybeans difference on the crop estimates.
Since our eventful market morning, afternoon news was dead quiet. The market coasted into the close. Tomorrow's trade to see whether we continue to coast lower, or post a recovery, will set the tone into the weekend.
If you did not catch the report highlights in my midday commentary, they are noted below. As is the update about us switching to text updates for our midday market update starting Monday, April 15th. If you have any questions, or would like to talk about marketing opportunities for both new crop or old crop, please feel free to reach out to Floyd or myself.
WASDE Report Debrief:
The report was expected to confirm that global supplies of both are adequate to meet demand at this point, leaving traders to focus on weather and geopolitical risks in the days and weeks ahead, with the Black Sea garnering attention at an escalating tension. Aka., the report was set to be uneventful. Unfortunately, we are seeing some slight price reactions today, but not in the green. Overall, a lot of this report has been priced in.
- A big thing that the USDA did NOT do today was change any Brazil production numbers.
- U.S. ending stock estimates for corn, soybeans and wheat all come in higher than the trade guess. Corn & wheat exports were unchanged from March but soybean exports were cut 20 mbu to 1.7 bbu.
- The USDA cut Argentine corn by 1mmt.
- USDA cut wheat feed use by 30 million bushels, based on the March stocks report, while cutting imports by 5 million bushels.
- USDA raised corn feed use by 25 million bushels, based on the March stocks report, while also increasing ethanol use of corn by 25 million bushels.
- USDA cut soybean imports by 5 million bushels, while also cutting exports by 20 million, seed use by 2 million, and residual use by 9 million bushels.
- World carryouts were higher than the average trade estimate for corn and soybeans, but lower for wheat.
Conab Production Estimates Debrief:
- Estimated soybean production at 146,522 MMTs versus 146,859 MMTs in March (adverse weather)
- Estimated corn production at 110,964 MMTs versus 112,753 MMTs in March (Smaller planted area)
Buenos Aires Grains Exchange Debrief:
- Lowers 2023/24 corn output to 49.5 mmt from 52 mmt previously (spread of disease)
- Lowers Soybeans to 51 mmt from 52.5 mmt (leaf hoppers start to create disease problems for the crop there)
Export Sales Report Debrief:
- Corn exports SUCKED (Marketing year low)
- Soybean exports were fine. Just fine.
- Wheat exports were decent, but not positive.
NEW! Wanstead Grain Text Updates
As Wanstead Farmers Co-operative continues its quest to get timely grain marketing information out to our farm customers, many producers have inquired about our ability to text our market commentaries and bids. Although we are limited by characters in what we can text compared to email, we are planning to start to send condensed text updates at midday in lieu of the traditional midday market emails (leaving the morning and closing commentaries via email).
Beginning April 15th, it is our intention, on a trial basis, to send out our midday commentary by text ONLY. We are also looking at using texts to communicate any grain prices/specials that might be being offered as well.
If you wish to join our text updates list, please text GRAIN to 519-800-0436. You can opt out at any time.
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