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Quotes of the Day:
As we reflect on D-Day, please take 15 minutes to watch this film and reflect on the contributions of the OSS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqD5UDNuANE
“This powerful film tells the story of allied special forces whose daring exploits changed the course of World War II and helped save the world from tyranny. Their courage and sacrifice deserve our eternal gratitude.”
- Leon Panetta
"I know you won't believe me, but the highest form of human excellence is to question oneself and others."
- Socrates
"As long as you live, keep learning how to live."
- Seneca
1. 4 Chinese, 4 Russian military planes enter S. Korea's air defense zone without notice: S. Korean military
2. Yoon says alliance with U.S. upgraded to 'nuclear-based alliance'
3. North Korea orders city workers, students to farms amid escalating starvation deaths
4. Famine, Disease and Slavery: This is Life in North Korea
5. Suicide spike in North Korea prompts Kim Jong Un to issue prevention order
6. ‘N. Korea miniaturizes nuclear warheads, capable of striking New York’
7. Extended deterrence group expected to meet next month
8. USFK to run space-based early warning system with allies
9. ROK-US alliance's strategy for building free, unified Korea
10. [Editorial] Trilateral cooperation
11. Export dependency on China wanes
12. From Provocations And Deterrence To Preparing For Unification: Why An Information Campaign Is Vital To Political Warfare In Korea
1. 4 Chinese, 4 Russian military planes enter S. Korea's air defense zone without notice: S. Korean military
A time worn saying but it still applies: Korea – A shrimp among whales.
Creating dilemmas for the ROK and for the ROK/US alliance.
(LEAD) 4 Chinese, 4 Russian military planes enter S. Korea's air defense zone without notice: S. Korean military | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · June 6, 2023
(ATTN: ADDS more info in paras 2-3)
SEOUL, June 6 (Yonhap) -- Four Chinese and four Russian military planes entered South Korea's air defense identification zone (KADIZ) without notice Tuesday, Seoul's military said, prompting the South Korean Air Force to send its fighter jets to the scene.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said that between 11:52 a.m. and 1:49 p.m., the Chinese and Russian aircraft entered the southern and eastern parts of the KADIZ, respectively, and exited it. They did not violate South Korea's air space, it added.
"Our military identified the Chinese and Russian planes before their entry into the KADIZ and deployed Air Force fighters to conduct tactical steps in preparation against potential accidental situations," the JCS said in a text message sent to reporters.
Their entry into the KADIZ came after the defense chiefs of South Korea, the United States and Japan highlighted their commitment to strengthening trilateral security cooperation on the margins of the Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual security conference in Singapore, over the weekend.
The air defense zone is not territorial airspace but is delineated to call on foreign planes to identify themselves so as to prevent accidental clashes.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · June 6, 2023
2. Yoon says alliance with U.S. upgraded to 'nuclear-based alliance'
Of course President Yoon can describe the alliance any way he chooses but when it comes to discussing US nuclear weapons, I wonder if the US concurs with describing the alliance as a "nuclear alliance?" I am sure the Yoon administration assesses that describing the alliance this way must achieve positive influence effects within certain target audiences. I would think mostly the domestic target audience especially given the day and location for his speech. I look forward to seeing how Kim Yo Jong and the Propaganda and Agitation Department will try to spin this for its propaganda purposes.
Yoon says alliance with U.S. upgraded to 'nuclear-based alliance' | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · June 6, 2023
By Lee Haye-ah
SEOUL, June 6 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol said Tuesday the alliance with the United States has been upgraded to a "nuclear-based alliance" under his agreement with U.S. President Joe Biden to strengthen Washington's nuclear commitment to South Korea.
Yoon made the remark during a Memorial Day speech at Seoul National Cemetery, referring to the Washington Declaration adopted at his summit with Biden in Washington in April, which included measures to strengthen the U.S. "extended deterrence" commitment to defending South Korea with all of its military capabilities, including nuclear weapons.
President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers a Memorial Day speech at Seoul National Cemetery in Seoul on June 6, 2023. (Yonhap)
"President Biden and I jointly announced the Washington Declaration in April, which dramatically strengthens the extended deterrence execution of U.S. nuclear assets," Yoon said. "The South Korea-U.S. alliance has now been upgraded to a nuclear-based alliance."
Yoon noted that North Korea is advancing its nuclear and missile capabilities and has legalized the use of nuclear weapons.
"Our government and military will defend our people's lives and safety by building an ironclad security posture based on a stronger-than-ever South Korea-U.S. alliance," he said.
Yoon and first lady Kim Keon Hee attended the burial ceremony of the remains of PFC Kim Bong-hak ahead of the Memorial Day ceremony.
The private first class died during the Battle of Bloody Ridge in September 1951 but his remains were discovered three different times in separate locations between 2011 and 2016.
The remains were identified as Kim's in February and buried Tuesday alongside those of his younger brother, who also died during the Korean War.
"The two brothers were reunited as remains 73 years after they took part in the Korean War to defend the freedom of their homeland," Yoon said. "However, the remains of numerous war dead have still not been able to return to their families."
Yoon said 160,000 South Korean troops died during the war but the remains of 120,000 have not been found.
"The government will work until the end so that the fallen heroes can return to their families," he said. "We will also continue to work to bring the remains of the patriotic martyrs who died overseas while fighting for our independence."
Yoon noted that the veterans ministry was upgraded to full-fledged ministry status on Monday.
He also vowed to take better care of the nation's heroes, saying it is the responsibility of the state to remember and treat with respect the heroes in uniform, including soldiers, police officers and firefighters, who gave their all to protect the nation and the people.
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · June 6, 2023
3. North Korea orders city workers, students to farms amid escalating starvation deaths
"Goodwill labour" on vegetable farms. I will keep beating this horse: observe for indicators of internal instability and ensure contingency plans for instability and regime collapse are updated.
North Korea orders city workers, students to farms amid escalating starvation deaths
thethaiger.com · by Nattapong Westwood · June 6, 2023
Nattapong Westwood43 mins ago
67 1 minute read
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Photo from Pen NewsNorth Korea has ordered government officials and students to help with farming in South Hwanghae Province, as the country faces a severe food shortage. It has been reported that starvation deaths in the country have tripled over the past year. Russian diplomats have also been called upon to provide “goodwill labour” on vegetable farms.
Government officials and students were sent from Pyongyang to the South Hwanghae Province farms, according to a South Korean newspaper, Daily NK. The region, known as North Korea’s “breadbasket,” is more suitable for agriculture due to its flat terrain and fewer mountains. Locals told Daily NK that accommodation had been set up for the volunteers across farmland in the province. The areas with faster rice growth had water and fertiliser resources as well as a high number of volunteers planting seedlings.
Even Russian diplomats were requested for “goodwill labour,” with propaganda photos showing consular staff working on a vegetable farm near Nampo city. The Rodong Sinmun newspaper reported that the diplomats assisted in weeding at a vegetable farm around 13 kilometres southwest of the Russian embassy in Pyongyang. The embassy’s Facebook page revealed that the farm was currently cultivating potatoes, corn, and soybeans, with the diplomats receiving a share of the crops for their help.
However, the situation differs for local villagers who have seen a significant increase in starvation deaths, particularly in the northern border regions. Yu Sang-bom, a villager near the border, disclosed that corn prices in North Korea had surged by 60% and rice by 30% from the previous year, reaching their highest levels since Kim Jong-un’s rise to power.
Nattapong Westwood is a Bangkok-born writer who is half Thai and half Aussie. He studied in an international school in Bangkok and then pursued journalism studies in Melbourne. Nattapong began his career as a freelance writer before joining Thaiger. His passion for news writing fuels his dedication to the craft, as he consistently strives to deliver engaging content to his audience.
thethaiger.com · by Nattapong Westwood · June 6, 2023
4. Famine, Disease and Slavery: This is Life in North Korea
"There's something happening here
But what it is ain't exactly clear
There's a man with a gun (nuclear bomb?) over there
Telling me I got to beware"
While Kim, his regime, and his army are threats to the ROK, the region, and the international community, we must beware of regime internal instability and regime collapse.
Don Kirk also describes why we need a human rights upfront approach and a strong information capability. And most importantly it is the pursuit (and achievement) of a free and unified Korea that is the only way to eliminate the nuclear and other military threats and the crimes against humanity that are being committed against the Korean people living in the north.
Famine, Disease and Slavery: This is Life in North Korea
Published 23 hr ago|Updated 20 hr ago
Donald Kirk
themessenger.com
North Korea lost about 2 million people to famine and disease in the 1990s and now faces the prospect of a scourge similar to that of three decades ago. Incredibly, however, that doesn’t occupy the attention of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who instead was fantasizing about joining the space race even after the failed launch of a rocket carrying a satellite that was supposed to begin circling the earth to relay images of what the North’s enemies are doing.
The rocket and satellite crashed into the Yellow Sea, while the North was plunging deeper into another period of widespread hunger. Yet, Kim remains determined to try, and try again — in the face of bitter protests by the U.S., South Korea and Japan that the real purpose of the launch was to test the technology needed for long-range missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
The failure of the satellite launch coincided with the release of the latest Global Slavery Index, which ranks North Korea first in the percentage of its people forced to work as slaves. The index, conducted by Walk Free, an Australian outfit that aims to wipe out slavery worldwide, reveals fascinating statistics on the levels of slavery in 160 countries.
In North Korea, slightly more than one in 10 of the country’s 26 million people are slaves. In second-ranked Eritrea, the percentage is slightly less than one out of 10. They both rank well ahead of third-placed Mauritania.
But what does the high level of slavery have to do with famine and disease? The answer is that North Korea desperately needs people to work in the farms, fields and mines while others are too ill to do the job. The solution for the impoverished country is to force about 2.6 million people to work for nothing.
The numbers include hundreds of thousands in prisons, ordinary jails or the gulag system that’s reserved for those who will never go free. Instead, they will work until they drop. Others may toil outside the walls and wire fences of a gulag but will always have to work for no more than the rations that keep them alive for another day’s work.
North Korea’s record of cruelty to its people is hardly news, considering it’s been a fact of North Korean life throughout the history of the Kim dynasty, beginning with the rise to power of Kim Jong Un’s grandfather after his return to the North on a Soviet vessel in 1945.
“People are too weak to engage in wage labor,” says the report, based on surreptitious conversations on mobile phones sneaked into the North from China. “People are dying.” Amid such suffering, North Korea has difficulty finding enough people to enslave. Slaves cannot work as slaves when they are too weak to pick up the tools needed to till the fields or hack coal out of mines.
In Washington, the State Department regularly excoriates the North for its human rights record, but some ask why we keep beseeching the North’s leader to enter into “dialogue” while failing to make human rights an absolute condition for talking.
The answer might be that of course North Korea will just go on denying the grossest violations of human rights and also will never give up its nukes and missiles. Given the dismal failure of previous efforts to get the North to engage in reform, why not stop trying?
(Gerald Bourke/AFP via Getty Images) Gerald Bourke/AFP via Getty Images
The same question applies to protests from Washington, Seoul and Tokyo about Pyongyang’s satellite program. North Korea responds with claims, voiced in an insulting diatribe by Kim’s younger sister, Kim Yo Jong, that North Korea has every right to compete in space while the U.S. and other countries have hundreds of satellites gathering information on every corner of the earth. State Department protests, she said, were “hackneyed gibberish.”
The U.S. “is absorbed in watching every movement of the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] with sharp eyes,” she said in a statement, “after flying a lot of reconnaissance satellites, high-altitude unmanned reconnaissance planes and all other reconnaissance assets in the sky above the Korean Peninsula.”
Known for her angry outbursts, Kim Yo Jong was deputized to speak out while her big brother evidently was going through another crisis. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) has determined that Kim is not in the best of health.
Even as his sister was carrying on about the evils of the United States, the NIS reported that Kim Jong Un now weighs an estimated 308 pounds, after giving up on a diet that had reduced his weight to maybe 250 pounds two years ago. He is also said to be suffering from severe sleep disorders, and reportedly drinks too much whiskey and smokes too many cigarettes.
While Kim descends into worsening health issues and wastes the government’s precious funds for nuclear weapons, missiles and satellites, millions of North Koreans suffer increasing hardships. Besides forcing 2.6 million people to work or endure servitude, members of the North’s 1.2 million people in its armed forces are also ordered to work on farms and construction projects. All told, about 3.8 million North Koreans are slaving away for no pay.
The slavery index provided by Walk Free is not the only report showing conditions in North Korea are worsening and that penalties imposed by the regime may be harsher now than a few years ago. A 2022 State Department report on religious freedom tells us that increasing numbers of North Koreans face execution for the sin of having been caught with bibles in their possession.
We’ve heard for years that worship of Christianity is a capital offense in the North, regardless of the phony congregations that appear at Catholic and Protestant propaganda churches in Pyongyang for services staged for the benefit of foreigners.
In North Korea, the story is only getting worse — for both Kim Jong Un and his people.
Donald Kirk has been a journalist for more than 60 years, covering conflict in Asia and the Middle East. Now a freelance correspondent covering North and South Korea, he is the author of several books about Asian affairs.
themessenger.com
5. Suicide spike in North Korea prompts Kim Jong Un to issue prevention order
Desperation in the north. An indication of the people losing all hope. We know what the answer to this problem is. Will we work to achieve a free and unified Korea?
Suicide spike in North Korea prompts Kim Jong Un to issue prevention order
Disclosure of suicide notes criticizing country shocks officials, source tells RFA
By Kim Jieun for RFA Korean
2023.06.05
rfa.org
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has issued a secret order for local authorities to prevent suicides after data showed an increase in people taking their own lives this year, government officials told Radio Free Asia.
Though RFA was not able to confirm North Korea’s tally, the South Korean National Intelligence Service reported at the end of May that suicides were up about 40% compared to last year.
“There are a lot of internal unrest factors in North Korea due to the hardships of people,” the spy agency said, adding that violent crimes are also on the rise as people struggle to make ends meet.
Kim officially defined suicide as an “act of treason against socialism,” and ordered local governments to take preventative measures.
The confidential suicide prevention order was delivered in emergency meetings in each province of the party committee leaders at the provincial, city and county levels, an official from the northeastern province of North Hamgyong told RFA’s Korean Service on condition of anonymity for security reasons.
“Our meeting was held at the provincial party committee’s building located in Pohang district, in the city of Chongjin,” he said. “The large number of suicide cases in the province was revealed and some officials … could not hide their anxious expressions.”
Criticism of social system
Statistics delivered at the North Hamgyong meeting showed that there were 35 suicide cases this year in Chongjin and nearby Kyongsong county alone, the official said, adding that most of the cases involved whole families ending their lives together.
“[The attendees] were shocked by the disclosure of suicide notes that criticized the country and the social system,” he said.
At the meeting in Ryanggang province, the attendees were told that suicide has had a greater social impact than starvation, an official there told RFA on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisal.
“Despite the suicide prevention policy ratified by the General Secretary, the officials were not able to come up with an appropriate solution,” he said. “Most of the suicides were caused by severe poverty and starvation, so no one can come up with a countermeasure right now.”
The meeting described several shocking cases in detail, according to the official.
“In the city of Hyesan, a 10-year-old boy was living with his grandmother after his parents died of starvation, but they took their own lives by eating rat poison,” he said. “It brought great sadness to all who saw it.”
The official described other shocking cases revealed at the meeting, including a couple in their 60s who hung themselves from a tree in the mountains, and a family of four who, after eating their final family meal together, ingested potassium cyanide, a highly toxic chemical often used in gold mining.
“Family suicide is a final act of defiance against a hopeless system,” he said.
Kim Jong Un’s order emphasized that the local government officials must take responsibility for prefenting suicides in their jurisdictions.
“It was emphasized that the responsible officials will be held jointly accountable, because ‘suicide is a clear social challenge and treason against the country.”
Translated by Claire Shinyoung Oh Lee. Edited by Eugene Whong and Malcolm Foster.
rfa.org
6. ‘N. Korea miniaturizes nuclear warheads, capable of striking New York’
It is good not to see a "trade New York for Seoul" argument here. For those who want to make that case please explain what would be necessary to prevent such a "trade." What action would the US have to take to extract some kind of guarantee from Kim that he would not attack New York? And of course could we actually trust such a guarantee? But of course making such a deal would for sure mean to Kim that he now has the "right" or "authorization" to attack Seoul. Could we sleep at night or look at our face in the mirror after extracting such a "guarantee" while sentencing the people of Seoul to death, destruction, and suffering? Those who want to make these arguments undermine US national security, the ROK/US alliance, and play right into the hands of the regime's political warfare strategy.
‘N. Korea miniaturizes nuclear warheads, capable of striking New York’
https://www.donga.com/en/home/article/all/20230606/4204696/1
Posted June. 06, 2023 08:08,
Updated June. 06, 2023 08:08
One of the key members of the U.S. Congress stated that he believes North Korea has successfully miniaturized nuclear warheads. According to him, North Korea currently possesses the capability to launch nuclear weapons that can reach New York City.
During an interview with ABC News, Rep. Mike Turner, the chair of the House Intelligence Committee, was asked about North Korea's claim of successfully miniaturizing nuclear warheads and whether the U.S. believes these claims to be true. He responded by saying, “Well, I think this is what we believe."
“Right now, North Korea can hit the United States, specifically New York City, with nuclear weapons,” he said. As the House Intelligence Committee chair, he holds a leadership position in the U.S. Congress and is privy to confidential information from government intelligence agencies. Consequently, his remarks suggest that U.S. intelligence agencies believe North Korea has achieved success in miniaturizing nuclear warheads.
“With respect to North Korea, obviously the concept of deterrence, where we have weapons, and they have weapons, is dead,” Rep. Turner said. This implies that as North Korea has acquired the capability to target major cities in the eastern United States, it has become increasingly challenging to deter a preemptive nuclear attack using U.S. nuclear weapons. This could also indicate a potential weakening of the extended deterrence provided by the nuclear umbrella to the Korean Peninsula.
The military and intelligence agencies in South Korea exercise caution when officially discussing North Korea's miniaturization of nuclear warheads, assessing that it has reached a significant level. However, it is known that internally, South Korea and the U.S. have determined that the miniaturization is nearly complete or already accomplished.
weappon@donga.com
7. Extended deterrence group expected to meet next month
A lot of work to be done. Let's get to it.
Tuesday
June 6, 2023
dictionary + A - A
Extended deterrence group expected to meet next month
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/06/06/national/diplomacy/Korea-Nuclear-Consultative-Group-NCG/20230606180624046.html
Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol shakes hands with U.S. President Joe Biden in the Rose Garden of the White House during their joint press conference on April 26. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]
The first meeting of a joint South Korean-U.S. nuclear deterrence and strategic planning group is expected to take place next month, an informed source told the JoongAng Ilbo on Monday.
The Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG), which was first announced during President Yoon Suk Yeol’s state visit to Washington in April, is a planned working group of officials from both countries designed to strengthen extended deterrence against threats from North Korea through enhanced dialogue and information sharing on nuclear strategy.
According to a South Korean presidential official who spoke to the JoongAng Ilbo on condition of anonymity, Seoul and Washington are expected to “soon” designate their chief representatives for the NCG’s first meeting, which the official said “could be presided over by the National Security Office” of the South Korean presidential office.
While it remains unknown who will serve as South Korea’s chief representative to the talks, it is possible that an official with prior experience in defense strategy talks with the United States, such as the Deterrence Strategy Committee Table-Top Exercise that took place in February, may be chosen.
A government source who spoke to the JoongAng Ilbo said the allies “have only agreed that the rank of their chief delegates should be a vice minister and have not yet decided on their department.”
The source also said that “while it may be more appropriate for an official working in defense affairs to be assigned to the NCG in the long run, the National Security Office may be more suited to lay out broader expectations [for the group] at the first meeting.”
U.S.-based Radio Free Asia reported last month that the U.S. representative for the NCG is expected to be John Plum, the assistant secretary of defense for space policy, though this remains unconfirmed.
According to the official who spoke to the JoongAng Ilbo, the presidential office expects that the affiliation and rank of Korea’s chief representative in the NCG will change according to circumstances and the agenda at the meetings, which are expected to take place approximately four times per year.
Since its announcement, the NCG has faced criticism that it would bolster Seoul's security less than if tactical nuclear weapons were re-deployed to the peninsula or a nuclear sharing framework with South Korea were established.
Nuclear sharing refers to an arrangement whereby some NATO states, such as Germany and Turkey, participate in storing and planning the use of U.S. nuclear weapons in the absence of their own deterrent.
Although the U.S. government previously stationed tactical nuclear weapons with its military forces in South Korea in its standoff with the Soviet Union during the Cold War, it withdrew them in September 1991 after signing the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty in July of the same year.
In comments made at a forum hosted by the Korea Press Foundation last month, Foreign Minister Park Jin defended the NCG between Seoul and Washington as the most “desirable and realistic solution” when considering the need to maintain secrecy concerning the whereabouts of U.S. nuclear weapons while maintaining South Korea’s past commitments to a denuclearized Korean Peninsula.
BY PARK HYUN-JU, MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
8. USFK to run space-based early warning system with allies
Tuesday
June 6, 2023
dictionary + A - A
USFK to run space-based early warning system with allies
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/06/06/national/defense/Korea-USFK-United-States-Space-Forces-Korea/20230606153731861.html
The insignia of the United States Space Forces Korea can be seen in this photograph taken of the command's establishment at a ceremony held on Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi, on Dec. 14. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]
The space command of United States Forces Korea (USFK) will be tasked with sharing information from the U.S. military's reconnaissance satellites with South Korea and Japan, following recent plans by the three countries' defense chiefs to heighten missile defense cooperation against the rising military threat from the North.
A USFK spokesperson told Radio Free Asia (RFA) that the United States Space Forces Korea, known as SPACEFORCE-KOR within the U.S. military, will be charged with operating a shared early warning system (SEWS) with U.S. allies in the region.
“SPACEFOR-KOR is also responsible for establishing international partnerships within their area of responsibility, including those efforts to establish real-time trilateral missile warning information sharing between the U.S., ROK, and Japan,” an official from the command told RFA, referring to South Korea by the acronym for its official name, Republic of Korea.
The U.S. space force official also told the agency that the warning system is based on space-based infrared detection technology mounted on advanced U.S. military reconnaissance satellites.
U.S. reconnaissance analysts who can assess missile launch signs have recently been deployed to the peninsula, RFA reported.
The U.S. military is also currently working to upgrade its satellite-based missile reconnaissance capabilities.
U.S. defense company Northrop Grumman announced on May 24 that its Next-Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared (OPIR) polar satellite, which is currently under development, passed its preliminary design review earlier last month.
The company won a $2.37-billion contract in 2020 to develop two next-generation OPIR polar satellites with infrared sensors to detect and track ballistic and hypersonic missiles for the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command.
The spacecraft will be designed to travel in highly elliptical polar orbits, giving them full-time visibility of the Northern Hemisphere.
The satellites, due to be launched in 2028, would bolster U.S. military reconnaissance capabilities and likely also benefit its Asian allies, South Korea and Japan.
The three countries have carried out several maritime missile tracking and interception exercises amid a marked escalation in missile launches by North Korea, which said it tested a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile in April.
During their trilateral meeting in Singapore on Saturday, the defense chiefs of Seoul, Washington and Tokyo agreed to activate a data-sharing mechanism to exchange real-time missile warning data before the end of the year.
The Pentagon said in a joint statement that the three military leaders — South Korean National Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada — agreed on the need to cooperate toward the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
They also underscored the importance of sustained international efforts to “deter, disrupt, and ultimately eliminate the DPRK’s illicit ship-to-ship transfers,” referring to North Korea by the acronym for its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
The statement also said that military exercises that contribute to strengthening the three countries’ joint response to the North’s nuclear and missile threats, including anti-submarine exercises and missile defense exercises, would be regularly held in the future.
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
9. ROK-US alliance's strategy for building free, unified Korea
From my good friend and colleague, Colonel (RET) Chung, PhD
Conclusion:
Let's proactively participate in a comprehensive strategy for building a unified Korea, We are confident that a unified Korea will come to reality within our generation. Our generation will become the historical creators for the unification of a divided Korea.
ROK-US alliance's strategy for building free, unified Korea
The Korea Times · June 6, 2023
By Chung Kyung-young
On April 26, in commemoration of the 70th anniversary of the ROK-U.S. alliance, the two allies agreed that both presidents are committed to building a better future for all Korean people and supporting a unified Korean Peninsula that is free and at peace. The ROK-U.S. alliance's mission is to build a free, unified Korea.
From a civilizational perspective, a unified Korea would historically imply the end of the Cold War era which still exists in the region. Strategic cooperation between the U.S. and China would successfully enable the two Koreas to build a unified Korea, and this unified Korea would then in turn transform the hegemony rivalry between the great powers into co-evolutionary relations. It would liberate North Korean people from poverty and human rights violations. It would also send a strong signal to other failed states affected by civil conflict and authoritarian regimes.
When we make an objective assessment and comparative cost analysis between the real expenditures derived from its division and the benefits from a unified Korea, building a unified Korea would provide far greater benefits than the status quo of division.
A vision for a unified Korea
The defining vision of a unified Korea plays a role in navigating to that ultimate destination.
First, a unified Korea, serving as new nation building, should embody the spirit of "Hongik Ingan" as the guiding thought of Korean national foundations and strive to carry out its message of mercy and goodwill to every human being. A unified Korea will be born again as a national community and extended family culture reflecting self-sacrifice and love. The nation should be a liberal democracy, representing checks and balance, along with the moral free market economic system. The education system should embody a spiritual heritage, along with ethics, human dignity, freedom of speech and the pursuit of happiness. In particular, freedom of religion is imperative for the new nation actualizing the "Korean Dream."
Second, a unified Korea will pursue a non-nuclear regime and peace. A unified Korea can play a constructive role as a peace-loving country and benefit the region in many ways.
Third, a unified Korea will pursue the ROK-U.S. alliance in parallel with regional multilateral security. We will maintain the alliance, which has made contributions to deterring war and at the same time promoting liberty and prosperity. It will also foster regional multilateral security cooperation of mutual respect. Fourth, a unified Korea will become a hub for geo-economy, transportation, finance, science and technology. A unified Korea will be transformed from the epicenter of tension and conflict to the origin of peace, coexistence, and common prosperity. Prospectively, a unified Korea will create a free and prosperous civilized global community engaging Eastern and Western civilizations through open culture and various religions.
ROK-U.S. alliance's role for achieving a unified Korea
A unified Korea will be achieved by the following synchronized efforts.
First, the ROK-U.S. alliance, which has contributed to institutionalizing the liberal democratic state, a digital-led country as well as cultural soft power, should build a unified Korea. The ROK-U.S. summit should conclude with an ironclad commitment to the creation of a free and unified Korea. This should provide the focus for the alliance policy and strategy going forward. Every action the alliance undertakes should be made with consideration for how they will affect the goal of achieving unification. To facilitate such tasks, the state leaders should direct their national security staff to establish a presidential-level strategic unification combined taskforce with a dedicated team to plan for and coordinate a ROK-led, U.S.-supported unification process.
This permanently established full-time team will consist of policymakers and experts and then explore a vision and strategy for a free, unified Korea. It will also develop comprehensive implementation plans for peaceful unification, denuclearization, respect for human rights and for contingencies that may arise, and which will eventually lead to unification. Simultaneously, civil society stakeholders should be encouraged to continue their own working groups to focus on a free and unified Korea and all the issues surrounding this challenge. These will include but not be limited to human rights, economic development and people-to-people contact.
These groups, such as Action for Korea United, overseas Korean diaspora including AKU USA and the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, are critical for informing, educating and advocating unification among Korean people on both sides of the demilitarized zone, as well as the international community. Synergistic effects can be achieved by the alliance's strategic unification taskforce and civil society working groups coordinating such efforts to maximize the comparative advantages each brings to this uniquely Korean challenge.
Second, the two Koreas will take the initiative in creating a cooperative unification environment. The two Koreas should work together by exploring North-South Korean tasks respectively and identifying joint tasks for building a unified Korea, along with collaboration with key stakeholders.
The final challenge involves how to best address the crippled armistice structure in order to build a peace regime on the peninsula. North Korea withdrew its representatives from the Military Armistice Commission (MAC). In 1994, China also recalled its representatives from the MAC in accordance with North Korea's request. The current divided Korean Peninsula is an unstable armistice structure between the United Nations Command and North Korea's Panmunjom Representatives. This mechanism should be reviewed and revitalized. And North Korea and China should both return their representatives to MAC. Under the MAC basis, political leadership among the two Koreas, the U.S., and China should launch peace talks in parallel with the substantial progress of denuclearization, and in the event of complete denuclearization, the peace treaty will be signed among the key actors.
Let's proactively participate in a comprehensive strategy for building a unified Korea, We are confident that a unified Korea will come to reality within our generation. Our generation will become the historical creators for the unification of a divided Korea.
Professor Chung Kyung-young teaches at Hanyang University's Graduate School of International Studies.
The Korea Times · June 6, 2023
10. [Editorial] Trilateral cooperation
[Editorial] Trilateral cooperation
koreaherald.com · by Korea Herald · June 6, 2023
South Korea, the United States and Japan are accelerating military cooperation in response to North Korea's nuclear and missile threats.
South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada met on Sunday on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia's top defense meeting, in Singapore, and agreed to activate a missile data sharing mechanism before the end of the year.
Presently, South Korea and Japan each share data bilaterally with the United States. After the mechanism is set up, the three countries will exchange data on North Korea’s missile launches in real-time.
They also agreed to resume maritime interdiction exercises, and regularize anti-submarine warfare exercises and missile defense drills. Military cooperation among the three countries will be leveled up.
It is unavoidable for South Korea, the United States and Japan to strengthen their military cooperation as North Korea keeps upgrading its nuclear and missile capability while clinging together with China and Russia.
Security cooperation must be watertight in a situation where the North carries out missile provocations without hesitation. North Korea fired ballistic missiles on 34 occasions last year and has launched ones on nine occasions so far this year.
South Korea does not possess nuclear weapons. It lacks sufficient capacity to detect North Korea's missile launches and fend them off on its own.
US bases that will give an important rear support to South Korea in an emergency on the Korean Peninsula is in Japan.
The main target of North Korea’s missiles is South Korea. Its missile threat to the US and Japan is incidental. It stands to reason that Seoul should explore every avenue to keep off North Korea's missile threats.
In this situation, trilateral missile data sharing is necessary for South Korea's security.
Recently, though unsuccessfully, North Korea launched a purported space projectile that seemed to be mounted with a military reconnaissance satellite.
Launching a projectile by using long-range ballistic missile technologies violates the United Nations Security Council resolutions against North Korea. A projectile can change into an atomic weapon when installed with a nuclear warhead.
As confrontation between South Korea, the US and Japan on one side and North Korea, China and Russia on the other becomes clear, it becomes increasingly difficult for the UN Security Council to control North Korea's provocations.
The recent council meeting on North Korea's failed launch of a reconnaissance satellite ended with no results due to opposition from China and Russia.
Close cooperation among the three countries is essential to counter North Korea's threats. On the other hand, they must strive to prevent the situation on the Korean Peninsula from getting out of control. Seoul must try to manage it stably.
After the meeting of South Korean, US and Japanese defense ministers, Lee met with his Chinese counterpart and agreed to promote cooperation, though he said in a speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue that some countries were ignoring North Korea's unlawful behavior. China and Russia ignored a US call for the UN Security Council to condemn North Korea for its latest satellite launch.
Washington is moving to revive high-level communication with Beijing, while trying to hold it in check. US National Security adviser Jake Sullivan and China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, met in Vienna, Austria and discussed bilateral issues.
The Group of Seven called for "constructive" ties with China, even while taking aim at Beijing's rights record and territorial claims. It is taking a very balanced approach.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida mentioned his eagerness for high-level bilateral talks with North Korea. Kishida renewed his willingness for direct dialogue with Pyongyang.
South Korea must strengthen military cooperation with the US and Japan to counter North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats, and at the same time it must also watch possible changes in the situation on the Korean Peninsula and brace for them.
By Korea Herald (khnews@heraldcorp.com)
koreaherald.com · by Korea Herald · June 6, 2023
11. Export dependency on China wanes
Some good news.
Export dependency on China wanes
US, India, Australia emerging to replace China as top export destination
koreaherald.com · by Song Seung-hyun · June 6, 2023
China, which has been South Korea's dominant export destination for almost two decades, is currently facing a challenge to its longstanding position.
According to a report by the Korea International Trade Association, Korea's reliance on exports to China has steadily declined from 26.8 percent in 2018 to 22.8 percent last year.
In the first quarter of this year, it dropped even further to 19.5 percent.
The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy report on Tuesday also showed that the decline in exports to China has persisted for 12 consecutive months since June of 2022.
China's trade balance has been in deficit during this period, except for a $600 million export surplus in September last year.
In January, monthly exports to China fell below the $10 billion mark for the first time in three years, recording $9.2 billion. Since then, monthly export figures to China have been fluctuating around the $10 billion level.
Exports to China in the first five months of this year amounted to $49.7 billion, seeing a 27.3 percent decrease compared to the same period in 2022 ($68.4 billion).
During the first quarter of this year, there was a significant on-year decline in various major export items to China: semiconductors by 44.6 percent, petroleum products by 20.6 percent, petrochemicals by 26.2 percent, steel by 23.9 percent, automotive parts by 34.0 percent, displays by 52.8 percent and secondary batteries by 38.7 percent.
In particular, China experienced a significant decline of 29.6 percent in its intermediate goods exports during the first quarter.
Some industry experts see that this change reflects that Korea's growth model, which involved selling intermediate goods like semiconductors to China and benefiting from its economic growth, has reached its limit.
As Chinese intermediate goods exports decline, the markets for such goods in the US, India, Australia and other countries are experiencing an expansion.
During the first quarter, intermediate goods exports to China experienced a significant decline of 29.6 percent, leading the overall decrease in intermediate goods exports. However, the share of intermediate goods exports to the US increased by 13.6 percent, marking a 1.7 percentage point rise from 2021. Additionally, countries like India and Australia also saw on-year increases in their shares of intermediate goods exports.
A KITA official sees that these shifts are necessary.
"The primary cause of the recent decline in the trade balance is the decrease in exports -- particularly due to the significant impact of declining exports to China -- rather than an increase in imports. Consequently, it has become increasingly important to actively seek out export markets beyond China in order to mitigate potential long-term consequences arising from China's weakened export performance,” the official said.
In addition, according to KITA, these shifts in the export market can be attributed to the slow recovery of the Chinese economy following the impact of COVID-19, which has led to a decrease in demand, as well as China's increased self-sufficiency in intermediate goods.
The US is emerging as the country that is replacing China's long-standing position as Korea's top export destination.
In the first quarter, Korea achieved a trade surplus of $7.2 billion with the US.
There was an increase in exports to the US in several categories, including: petroleum products (30.5 percent), petrochemicals (24.7 percent), steel (26.6 percent), automotive parts (16.2 percent), secondary batteries (50 percent) and plastic products (15.9 percent).
In April, exports to the US amounted to $9.184 billion, only $330 million less than exports to China ($9.517 billion).
Also, exports to the US have been maintaining a level of around $9 billion per month over the past year.
Other countries where Korea saw export surpluses in the first quarter include: Vietnam ($5.7 billion), Hong Kong ($4.1 billion), India ($2.8 billion), and Turkey ($2.1 billion).
By Song Seung-hyun (ssh@heraldcorp.com)
koreaherald.com · by Song Seung-hyun · June 6, 2023
12. From Provocations And Deterrence To Preparing For Unification: Why An Information Campaign Is Vital To Political Warfare In Korea
For those who missed this yesterday.
From Provocations And Deterrence To Preparing For Unification: Why An Information Campaign Is Vital To Political Warfare In Korea
By David Maxwell Published 2 hours ago
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/06/from-provocations-and-deterrence-to-preparing-for-unification-why-an-information-campaign-is-vital-to-political-warfare-in-korea/
North Korea has conducted sustained psychological warfare or information operations against its own people, the Republic of Korea, the U.S., and the international community. The ROK-U.S. alliance has not reciprocated to any appreciable extent.
Psychological warfare and propaganda are critical to supporting the three major lines of effort of the Kim family regime. First is political warfare to subvert the ROK and drive a wedge in the ROK-U.S. alliance. Second is blackmail diplomacy — the use of increased tensions, threats, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions. Third is the development of advanced warfighting capabilities to support its political warfare and blackmail diplomacy strategies and ultimately to conduct its campaign to unify the Korean peninsula by force.
One of North Korea’s core objectives is subverting the democratic and prosperous South Korea and causing it to submit to the rule of the North. Kim Jong Un, the third-generation ruler of his family regime, uses political warfare to try to bring the Korean peninsula under the rule of the “Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.” While the ROK-U.S. alliance has successfully deterred war on the Korean peninsula since the Armistice Agreement of 1953, it has done a poor job of employing its nations’ entire range of information capabilities to change security conditions in the north. Information has always been the Kim family’s greatest vulnerability. This is why they severely restrict the flow of information to Korean people in the north. The use of psychological warfare or information operations has the potential to alter the security situation in the North over time. The alliance must conduct a superior form of political warfare as a central component of a sound strategy. The main effort of a political strategy is an information campaign.
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol did say in January 2023 that he was considering resuming psychological warfare or information operations in response to North Korean provocations. However, there has been no visible effort to do so yet, and nearly all information operations are being conducted by escapees from the north and other members of civil society.
The North Korean Regime is Masterful at Internal and External Propaganda
The priority for the regime in Pyongyang is control of the population. North Korea expends significant resources to prevent its people from being exposed to information, primarily from the South but from the rest of the world as well. Kim fears the Korean people in the North more than he does the militaries of South Korea and the U.S. The people, armed with information, are an existential threat to the regime.
North Korea’s Propaganda and Agitation Department (PAD) is the primary organization that executes the Kim regime’s psychological warfare. It is responsible for internal and external messaging, and it controls all media in North Korea. Although the PAD’s messages are often satirized by people and organizations outside of North Korea for its hyperbole and over-the-top-rhetoric, it is effective at transmitting regime policies and telegraphing actions. Analysts and political leaders must pay attention to its messages and take them seriously.
The Kim regime also views South Korea — both the government and its citizens — as a threat to their dictatorship. The Korean Workers Party’s United Front Department (UFD) conducts cyber information operations targeting the South Korean public and uses sleeper agents in the ROK to complement those efforts. The Cultural Exchange Bureau conducts covert actions in the South to establish underground political parties and recruit sympathizers focused on fomenting unrest and revolution. The intent is to subvert the South Korean population’s confidence in their own government. The PAD and UFD also use broadcasts, leaflets, social media, and cyber activities. They manage so-called useful idiots and recruited sympathizers in the South to transmit regime messages directly and indirectly.
Kim and his sister Kim Yo Jong have used psychological warfare to threaten the ROK, then manipulated it into passing the so-called anti-leaflet law in December 2020. This prohibited Koreans in the South from sending information into the North. Kim Yo Jong also has blamed North Korea’s COVID-19 outbreak on leaflets from South Korea, which illustrates how much the regime fears information. In a positive step forward, in April 2023 the ROK Supreme Court overturned a lower court ruling that justified the Ministry of Unification’s revocation of the registration of Fighters for a Free North Korea. This group is now allowed to send information into the north.
A Tepid and Timid ROK-U.S. Alliance Response
Unfortunately, information operations in North Korea have not been a top priority for Washington or Seoul. The ROK-U.S. alliance’s successful deterrence of war for 70 years has bred complacency. Combined with a lack of will for employing information operations, this reticence has allowed the North to execute an unchecked political warfare campaign that keeps the regime in power and creates security dilemmas for the alliance and for the region.
A major problem is that advocates of engagement with North Korea fear that the use of information will undermine attempts to negotiate the denuclearization of the North. But this kind of concession has never had any positive effects on negotiation and engagement.
There is a lone bright spot in the information space. The Korean Services of Voice of America (VOA) and Radio Free Asia (RFA) do yeoman’s work trying to penetrate the North with news and practical information. The U.S. Congress recognized their work by allocating $40 million in additional resources to expand it and to provide the Korean people in the North with facts, knowledge, and the truth. An overt information campaign supports deterrence and diplomacy, creates dilemmas, and puts pressure on Kim to change his behavior and decision-making. In addition, it can support change inside North Korea. VOA and RFA contribute to this effort.
There are concerns that the regime could act out against Seoul or conduct other provocations in response to information. This should not paralyze the alliance. In 2020, Kim Yo Jong ordered the destruction of the ROK liaison building in the Kaesong Industrial Complex. This is a typical North Korean threat, but look at another case: The Kim regime has not acted on threats to attack balloon launches conducted by escapees in the South.
The Kim regime also uses South Korean and U.S. responses to North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats to reinforce regime legitimacy. The PAD uses these statements to justify the sacrifices the Korean people in the north must make as Kim prioritizes these programs over their welfare and human rights. The alliance rarely exploits a key vulnerability: When the Kim regime’s human rights abuses are exposed, its legitimacy is undermined. A successful information operations theme should reinforce that the sacrifices of the Korean people in the North feed the regime’s vanity projects while they abuse the population.
An information campaign should seek to achieve three specific outcomes. First, change Kim’s behavior toward his nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs and toward the Korean people in the North. Second, provide a rationale for the elite and military leadership to force Kim to change his decision-making calculus. Lastly, it can serve as a catalyst to encourage the Korean people in the North to effect change on their own.
Five Lines of Effort for an Information Campaign in North Korea
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Prevent War. Establish policies for North Korea’s second-tier military leadership (military corps commanders and security service leadership). For example, if they do not attack the ROK and maintain control of weapons of mass destruction, they and their families will have a place in a free and unified Korea. When faced with an order to attack, the second-tier leadership must know they have choices other than going to war.
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Pressure Kim Jong Un. Pressure from within could cause Kim to change or at least moderate his policies. As an example, every time the ROK and U.S. must talk about nuclear weapons and missiles, they need to emphasize the human rights abuses.
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Offer options to the Korean people. They must know that there is life outside of Juche and Songbun that they can reach and enjoy. An information campaign must show the successes of escapees living in free countries.
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Support for potential emerging leadership who seek change. When they do act against the regime, North Koreans must know they will be supported by the international community.
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Prepare the Korean people in the North for unification. A long process of education is required to undo Juche, Songbun, and the Ten Principles of Monolithic Ideology, and to teach about such things as land ownership, participatory politics, and the rule of law.
Recommendations for the Biden and Yoon Administrations
Deterring war remains the overarching priority for the ROK-U.S. alliance. However, information can play an effective role in both supporting the alliance’s priorities while exerting pressure on Kim Jong Un like he has never felt.
The alliance should execute a superior political warfare strategy that consists of three lines of effort: a human rights upfront approach, information and influence activities, and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea. The alliance must enact the 26 key but overlooked words from the Yoon-Biden summit in April 2023. These recognize that the strategic aim of the alliance is peaceful unification. Of course Kim Jong Un gets a vote over whether it will be a peaceful process or not. The following are the highlights of what should be included as part of an overt information campaign.
- Overarching narrative: Every response to the regime’s nuclear and missile activities must include a human rights response. For example, point out that Kim Jong Un’s deliberate decision to prioritize nuclear and missile development is solely responsible for the suffering of the Korea people in the north.
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Establish an alliance organization to plan and conduct combined political warfare with a supporting information campaign. Establish a “unification desk” in State’s Bureau of East Asia Pacific or Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor to provide a counterpart to the ROK’s Ministry of Unification
- Create a Korea Desk at the GEC to coordinate and synchronize information activities across the interagency.
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Establish a Korean Escapee (Defector) Information Institute to harness the expertise of key communicators from the North to shape themes and messages and advise on all aspects of the information campaign.
- Harness the power of civil society. Empower escapees from the North to continue their information work, and encourage free nations to provide information to the Korean people in the North.
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Support proposed efforts by the ROK military to employ psychological warfare to respond to North Korean provocations. Direct U.S. Psychological Operations Forces to advise, assist, and support South Korean Psychological Operations forces in a supporting military information operations campaign.
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Effectively employ the $40 million allocated in the 2023 NDAA provided to the Korean Services of VOA and RFA to increase broadcasts to a level that optimizes access and coverage. Pursue technologies to achieve penetration in the North.
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Fully implement the information planning requirements in the Otto Warmbier Countering North Korean Censorship and Surveillance Act of 2022.’
- Design an overt information campaign targeting the Korean people in the North based on Information, Knowledge, Truth, and Understanding. Information involves massive quantities of information from entertainment to news. Knowledge means practical information on how to effect change, best practices for agriculture and market activity, and educational lessons without Juche influence Truth reflects the reality about the regime and the situation in north Korea as well as the outside world. Understanding helps the Korean people in the north familiarize themselves with the inalienable and universal rights that belong to all human beings.
The only way to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, military threats, and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people in the north by the mafia-like crime cult known as the Kim family regime is through unification. A free and unified Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government would be a strong American ally in Asia. An information warfare campaign against North Korea will be the most important contribution to this outcome, a United Republic of Korea.
David Maxwell, a 1945 Contributing Editor, is a retired US Army Special Forces Colonel who has spent more than 30 years in Asia and specializes in North Korea and East Asia Security Affairs and irregular, unconventional, and political warfare. He is the Vice President of the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy and the editor of Small Wars Journal. He is a Senior Fellow at the Global Peace Foundation where he focuses on a free and unified Korea).
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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