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A surprisingly big information day today, following Thursday's Data dump with today's export inspections, StoneX Brazil numbers, Feb Crush Report, and Crop Conditions report. Despite this, the majority of the movement we saw today can be attributed to corrective movement from Thursday's rally. Are we going to see Turnaround Tuesday action tomorrow, or a further fall from our highs.
Export inspections pulled grains off their lows today after impressive values for corn and wheat (albeit disappointing for soybeans). Marketing year to date wheat export inspections fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 21 million bushels, but the gap is closing. Marketing year to date soybean export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 10 million bushels, but the surplus is disappearing. Marketing year to date corn export inspections exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 45 million bushels, and the surplus is growing. Cheap corn is generating demand.
StoneX Brazil's customer survey pegs this year's soybean crop at 150.8 million metric tons, down from 151.5 mmt the previous month and down 7.5 MMT from last season. The modest decline in production comes despite a small increase in area planted to soybeans, with yields slipping lower due to adverse weather. Yield increases in some areas were offset by declines elsewhere, netting a small downward adjustment to the national average yield that was sufficient to more than offset the increase in area. StoneX Brazil pegged total corn production at 124.2 mmt, down slightly from 124.4 mmt the previous month due to a small downward adjustment in the projected winter (safrinha) corn crop yield. This was down from 139.2 MMT last season.
This afternoon’s USDA February soybean crush was expected to come in at 196.4 million bushels, but only cracked 193.93 million this afternoon (lower than the low end of expectations). This is down from 194.8 mbu in January but up from 176.9 mbu in February 2023. Ethanol corn useage was also shown in this report to be above January's 441.1 million at 441.5 million.
The initial spring USDA Crop Progress report was also released this afternoon, showing that 2% of corn is planted (LY2%, Avg 1%), 1% of spring wheat is planted (LY 0%, Avg. 1%), and the winter wheat is showing at 56% good/excellent (28% LY, 42% Avg, 57% expected).
Overall U.S. subsoil moisture is 61% adequate/surplus, down from 67% a year ago. Top corn grower Iowa's subsoil is 24% adequate/surplus versus 69% a year ago. Top wheat grower Kansas' subsoil is 47% ad/sur vs 20% a year ago. Top soybean grower Illinois' is 58% vs 94% a year ago.
Funds were thought to have been all sellers today.
We have now returned to our regular hours (8-5 Monday-Friday).
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