In a new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, Richard Arnold reveals how Russian Cossacks—now playing military roles in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—went from distinct regional entities to a single nationalized movement seeking to anchor conservative morality. Maria Popova sees Russia seeking to plant its flag where it gains territory, though Brian Taylor says Vladimir Putin will not actually seek to revive the USSR, in part because this would economically harm his oligarchs. For Ivan Kurilla, Russia’s anti-war movement is divided between emigres and those who stayed home. And Scott Radnitz describes the rise of conspiratorial rhetoric as “a reversion to the norm of how politics has always occurred.”
 
With Sweden and Finland now seeking NATO membership, Samuel Charap says it is “far-fetched” that Russia would ever invade Finland. Vladimir Gelman agrees Russia is unlikely to retaliate militarily, but cautions the Kremlin will not let Finland’s “insult” go unanswered. Pavel Baev suggests formally annexing Donetsk and Luhansk is more likely. Looking at the nearby region, Ralph Clem and Erik Herron find Estonians and Latvians highly focused on the Russian threat, but Lithuanians more focused on corruption and economic issues.
 
Regarding other Western responses, Kornely Kakachia and Bidzina Lebanidze argue that granting Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine EU candidacy would create an important “geopolitical victory over Russia’s aggressive and destabilizing regional policy.” For Samuel Greene, the more the West keeps Russia isolated, the harder it is for Moscow to reinvest in its military. Maria Snegovaya, though, suggests policymakers should reconsider banning all Russian oil and gas since a resulting price spike could ultimately benefit Russia. Russia’s closure of the CBC Moscow bureau (among others) demonstrates the Kremlin’s inability “differentiate between state media and public media,” observes Greene.
 
In another new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, Azamat Junisbai argues Kazakhstan now has a rare opportunity for meaningful reform in the wake of what he argues was a failed coup in response to mass protests in January. Diana Kudaibergenova and Marlene Laruelle chalk up these protests to the Nazarbayev regime’s failure to “reconcile its neoliberal prosperity rhetoric with citizens’ calls for a welfare state.” Jennifer Murtazashvili argues the US should increase its support for economies and regional connectivity in South and Central Asia to balance Chinese influence.

See the newly released collection of Policy Briefs from the joint BEAR Network-PONARS Eurasia conference on April 29-30, “Between the EU and Russia: Domains of Diversity and Contestation.”

View the latest PONARS Eurasia Online Academy videos: Labor Migration in Russia featuring Caress Schenk and Collapse of the Soviet Union authored by Maria Lipman.