|
NAR economists weigh in on home sales and mortgage rates—and how the election results, the economy and changing buyer demographics could impact your real estate business in the year ahead.
The last two years have been tough for many people who work in home sales or who were in the market to buy or sell, but the worst may be over, Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of REALTORS®, told a crowd of real estate professionals during NAR NXT, The REALTOR® Experience, in Boston on Friday.
Yun released a rosier forecast for the housing market for 2025 and 2026, with an outlook for higher home sales and moderating mortgage rates.
Also speaking at Friday’s Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum, NAR’s Deputy Chief Economist Jessica Lautz shared new NAR data that looked at who’s buying homes today. The data shows growth in all-cash buyers, multigenerational purchases and single buyers.
On the selling side, homeowners are feeling richer from the rapidly rising prices of the past few years. Now, more listings are coming up for sale, and the economy is seeing improvement. All those factors could get more Americans moving in the year ahead, he said. Further, this week marked the conclusion of a contentious presidential election.
“We’ve seen after presidential elections—and it doesn’t matter who wins—that there’s usually a slight boost in home sales,” Yun said. “It removes some uncertainty. Now you know it’s the policy [of President Trump], and you can make predictions about what will happen and make a decision based on that.”
Here’s an overview of NAR’s predictions on key housing indicators for the year ahead.
Home Sales to Rise
With improving job numbers and recent gains in the stock market, more Americans may be motivated to act, Yun said. Yun predicts an uptick of nearly 2 million jobs for 2025 and another nearly 2 million increase in 2026, which could bode well for the housing market.
“2023 and 2024 were both difficult years in the housing market,” Yun said. But pending home sales eked out a 3% year-over-year gain in September, he said, a signal that is “maybe the worst is over.” Other good signs: Inventory of both new and existing homes is increasing, and the U.S. population has grown by 70 million from 1995, even though home sales have remained mostly at 1995 levels, signaling pent-up demand.
Here's Yun’s forecast over the next two years:
- 2025 sales projection: Existing home sales to rise 9% year-over-year; New home sales to jump by 11%.
- 2026 sales projection: Existing-home sales to rise 13% year-over-year; new home sales to increase by 8%.
Mortgage Rates to Moderate
The trajectory of mortgage rates will have a major bearing on how the housing market will fare, Yun said.
According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has ranged from...
| 
