|
Quotes of the Day:
"People will come to love their oppression, to adore the technologies that undo their capacities to think."
. - Aldous Huxley
"Human behavior is subject to the same laws as any other natural phenomenon. Our customs, behaviors, and values are byproducts of our culture. No one is born with greed, prejudice, bigotry, patriotism and hatred; these are all learned behavior patterns. If the environment is unaltered, similar behavior will reoccur."
- Jacque Fresco
"Discipline divorced from wisdom is not true discipline, but merely the meaningless following of custom, which is only a disguise for stupidity."
- Rabindranath Tagore
1. N. Korea releases rare photos of botched spy satellite launch
2. Kim's sister says N. Korea will 'correctly' place spy satellite into orbit soon after failed launch
3. N. Korea slams anti-proliferation drills in S. Korea
4. North Korea vows to try again after failed satellite launch
5. N. Korea adopts law on inspecting goods amid border opening speculation
6. South Korea's 'warning' caused confusion
7. North Korea says it will try again ‘soon’ to launch spy satellite
8. Korea joins exclusive club with successful L-SAM test
9. Pyongyang seeks to portray rocket as science effort by admitting failure: experts
10. S Korea’s call for nuclear weapons has quieted – for now
11. IMO adopts first-ever resolution condemning N. Korea's missile launches
12. NATO's Stoltenberg condemns North Korea's satellite launch
13. Pyongyang's Strategic Calculus and Future Trajectory
14. Panel: COVID-19 fueled human rights abuses in Asia
15. North Korea's worsening story
1. N. Korea releases rare photos of botched spy satellite launch
Launch photos at the link: https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20230601002552325?section=nk/nk
(2nd LD) N. Korea releases rare photos of botched spy satellite launch | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · June 1, 2023
(ATTN: UPDATES with more details on engine structure in paras 6-9)
By Lee Minji
SEOUL, June 1 (Yonhap) -- North Korea on Thursday released rare photos of its failed attempt to launch its first military spy satellite in an apparent bid to show that it was not a test of a weapons system.
The photos, released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), show Pyongyang's new "Chollima-1" rocket carrying the military reconnaissance satellite, "Malligyong-1," taking off from the country's rocket launching station on the west coast.
The North fired what it claims to be a "space launch vehicle" southward Wednesday, but it fell into the Yellow Sea after an "abnormal flight," according to South Korea's military.
This photo provided by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency on June 1, 2023, shows the launch of the North's new "Chollima-1" rocket carrying a military reconnaissance satellite, "Malligyong-1," from Tongchang-ri on the North's west coast the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
The launching site in the photos appeared to be significantly different from the existing launch pad at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground. It may be a new seaside site located some 3 kilometers away from the main launch pad.
The photos also showed the upper part of the vehicle looks somewhat blunt and wider than the main body, an indication that the rocket carried a satellite instead of a warhead. The North's missile warhead is usually slimmer than the body.
Based on the form of the rocket plume, the first-stage rocket booster appeared to have been equipped with a liquid-fuel engine.
Some analysts said, while it is unclear whether there are either two or four nozzles in the engine, they both mean that the North's new space rocket is likely modeled after its intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM).
The engine of the Hwasong-15 ICBM has two nozzles, while that of the Hwasong-17 has four.
"As expected, the new projectile used a liquid-fuel rocket," said Chang Young-keun, a missile expert at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy. "It is unclear based on the angle of the photo whether there are two nozzles or four, but it is assumed that the burn time would be relatively short given that the length of the first-stage booster is short."
This photo, provided by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency on June 1, 2023, shows the launch of the North's new "Chollima-1" rocket carrying a military reconnaissance satellite, "Malligyong-1," from Tongchang-ri on the North's west coast the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
Seoul's unification ministry said despite the failed launch attempt, the North may have released the photos to stress that Wednesday's launch was aimed at putting a satellite into orbit, not testing a weapons system.
"Since the photos showed what appeared to be the form of a normal satellite, the North may have wanted to demonstrate that it conducted a satellite launch that it was OK to disclose," a ministry official told reporters on condition of anonymity.
The official added the North may also have quickly admitted the failure of the satellite launch, as it was something that cannot be hidden from the international community.
On Wednesday, the North swiftly confirmed the launch failure, within three hours following the attempt, saying the second-stage rocket lost thrust due to an engine problem.
The photos have so far been distributed only through the KCNA, the North's state media for the outside audience. The North has yet to make any confirmation on the failure in state media outlets for the local audience, such as the Rodong Sinmun, its main newspaper.
Earlier in the day, Kim Yo-jong, the influential sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, vowed that Pyongyang will "correctly" place a military reconnaissance satellite into orbit soon.
South Korea condemned the North's latest move as a violation of a series of United Nations Security Council resolutions banning its nuclear and missile programs, as the satellite launch shares the same technology used in ballistic missiles.
mlee@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이민지 · June 1, 2023
2. Kim's sister says N. Korea will 'correctly' place spy satellite into orbit soon after failed launch
This excerpt is a "tell.' The regime knows it is behind in the space race with South Korea and it is also afraid of the intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities of the ROK/US alliance.
Except:
"We confirmed once again that the enemies are most afraid of the DPRK's access to excellent reconnaissance and information means including reconnaissance satellite and, accordingly, we are aware that we should direct greater efforts to developing reconnaissance mean," she added.
(LEAD) Kim's sister says N. Korea will 'correctly' place spy satellite into orbit soon after failed launch | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · June 1, 2023
(ATTN: UPDATES with more details throughout; RECASTS lead para; ADDS photo, byline)
By Chae Yun-hwan
SEOUL, June 1 (Yonhap) -- The influential sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has vowed that Pyongyang will "correctly" place a military reconnaissance satellite into orbit soon, state media reported Thursday, a day after the North's attempt to launch a spy satellite failed.
Kim Yo-jong made the remarks as she slammed the United States for its denouncement of the North's botched launch the previous day of what it claimed to be a "space launch vehicle," according to a statement carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
"If the DPRK's satellite launch should be particularly censured, the U.S. and all other countries, which have already launched thousands of satellites, should be denounced," she said. "It is certain that the DPRK's military reconnaissance satellite will be correctly put in space orbit in the near future and start its mission."
DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"We confirmed once again that the enemies are most afraid of the DPRK's access to excellent reconnaissance and information means including reconnaissance satellite and, accordingly, we are aware that we should direct greater efforts to developing reconnaissance mean," she added.
This file photo, captured from the homepage of North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Aug. 11, 2022, shows Kim Yo-jong, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's sister and vice department director of the ruling Workers' Party's Central Committee, making a speech during a national meeting on anti-epidemic measures held in Pyongyang the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
Kim, who serves as the vice department director of the Central Committee of the ruling Workers' Party, also called the U.N. Security Council's resolutions that ban Pyongyang's use of ballistic technology as "gangster-like" and "wrong" for violating the North's right to use space.
Meanwhile, she reiterated that North Korea is not interested in talks with the United States, citing Washington's "hostile policy" toward Pyongyang.
"We have no content of dialogue and do not feel the necessity of dialogue with the U.S. and its stooges ... we will continue our-style way of counteraction in a more offensive attitude so that they should not but realize that they will have nothing to benefit from the extension of the hostile policy toward the DPRK," she said.
On Wednesday, North Korea fired the rocket southward, but it fell into the Yellow Sea after an "abnormal" flight, according to Seoul's military.
The North confirmed the failure, saying its new "Chollima-1" rocket, carrying a military reconnaissance satellite, "Malligyong-1," fell into the sea due to the "abnormal starting of the second-stage engine," adding that it plans to conduct a second launch as soon as possible, the KCNA said.
The latest launch drew immediate condemnation from South Korea, the United States and Japan.
This photo, provided by South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff on May 31, 2023, shows an object believed to be part of North Korea's "space launch vehicle" that was retrieved from the Yellow Sea. The North said a rocket carrying a military spy satellite it launched earlier in the day crashed into the sea due to an engine problem and that the country plans to carry out its second launch "as soon as possible." (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · June 1, 2023
3. N. Korea slams anti-proliferation drills in S. Korea
It is time to really put the proliferation security initiative to work. It should be part of the pressure we exert on the regime. As we can deduce from the comments that it is fearful of the effects it could have,
Excerpts:
"It is quite clear that they are extremely dangerous military exercises ...for perfecting the overall embargo on the export and preparations for preemptive attack on a specified state in contingency," Kim said in an English-language statement carried by the Korean Central News Agency.
The North has long decried combined military drills by the South and the U.S. as rehearsals for an invasion against it, and used them as a pretext to test its weapons systems.
"If the U.S. and its vassal forces attempt to impose any hostile blockade on the DPRK or infringe upon our inviolable sovereignty even a bit, the armed forces of the DPRK will regard it as a declaration of war against it," he warned.
N. Korea slams anti-proliferation drills in S. Korea | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · June 1, 2023
SEOUL, June 1 (Yonhap) -- North Korea condemned anti-proliferation drills in South Korea on Thursday, saying it will regard any attempt by Washington and Seoul to impose a "hostile blockade" on it as a declaration of war against Pyongyang.
Kim Son-gyong, vice foreign minister of the North, issued a statement criticizing the latest multinational maritime drills aimed at preventing the trafficking of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), hosted by South Korea the previous day.
Citing the scale of forces and equipment involved in the drills, Kim said South Korea and the U.S. have made "far-fetched" assertions that the exercise was held for the purpose of defense and non-proliferation.
"It is quite clear that they are extremely dangerous military exercises ...for perfecting the overall embargo on the export and preparations for preemptive attack on a specified state in contingency," Kim said in an English-language statement carried by the Korean Central News Agency.
The North has long decried combined military drills by the South and the U.S. as rehearsals for an invasion against it, and used them as a pretext to test its weapons systems.
"If the U.S. and its vassal forces attempt to impose any hostile blockade on the DPRK or infringe upon our inviolable sovereignty even a bit, the armed forces of the DPRK will regard it as a declaration of war against it," he warned.
DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the North's official name.
The Eastern Endeavor 23 drills were held in waters off the southern island of Jeju under the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), involving WMD counter-proliferation activities, including on-board search operations.
This photo, taken May 31, 2023, shows the multinational anti-proliferation naval drills held in waters off South Korea's southern Jeju Island. (Yonhap)
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · June 1, 2023
4. North Korea vows to try again after failed satellite launch
Note the photos at the link. I am trying to figure out what we are seeing in the photo of the debris, especially the photo that appears to be a look inside a recovered "cylinder." What is that at the bottom? Is the spherical looking thing a satellite?
Link: https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/satellite-05312023182042.html
North Korea vows to try again after failed satellite launch
The rocket failed when the second stage did not ignite, state media said.
By Eugene Whong for RFA
2023.05.31
rfa.org
On the heels of a failed spy satellite launch on Wednesday, North Korea vowed that a second launch would come soon, state media reported.
Taking off from the Sohae Satellite Launching ground at 6:27 a.m., the Malligyong-1 satellite mounted on the new-type Chollima-1 rocket lost thrust over the Yellow Sea, the state-run Korean Central News Agency, or KCNA reported.
The second stage of the rocket engine did not ignite properly, the report said, citing remarks made by a spokesperson from the National Aerospace Development Administration.
“Scientists, technicians and experts concerned [will] start discovering concrete causes,” KCNA said. After determining them, the scientists will “take urgent scientific and technological measures to overcome them and conduct the second launch as soon as possible through various part tests.”
Had the launch been successful it would have been the first time North Korea managed to place a reconnaissance satellite in its proper orbit. In seven attempts, only two satellites have reached orbit but both failed shortly after, U.S.-based satellite imagery expert Jacob Bogle told RFA’s Korean Service.
“It's a cliché to say that ‘space is hard’, but that's because it is. Failures commonly happen in both government-led space programs like the ESA as well as in privately-funded programs such as SpaceX,” said Bogle.
South Korean military personnel recover what is believed to be a part of the rocket that North Korea said crashed into the sea off the west coast of the Korean peninsula, Wednesday, May 31, 2023. Credit: South Korea Defense Ministry/Handout via Reuters
Bogle said it was very likely that North Korea would try again.
“The launch window was from May 31 to June 11, and they launched on the very first day of that window. We don't know what the internal decision-making process was but this could have been a rushed launch,” he said. “North Korea is the only country in the region without a reliable spacefaring capability, and Kim Jong Un has placed a lot of importance on acquiring it. … North Korea will likely try another satellite launch in the near-term.”
North Korea’s account of the failed launch is likely true, the Rand Corporation’s Bruce Bennett told RFA.
“This is possible, but other failures could also have happened. Kim has already promised to try again, so I think we can expect it,” said Bennett.
The goal of the launch was to put the spy satellite in a polar orbit, optimal for spy satellites, he said.
“A polar satellite travels roughly over the North Pole and the South pole as it circles the Earth. It flies at a much lower altitude, usually 200 to 1,000 km,” said Bennett. A polar orbit is usually used for reconnaissance … [and] lets them see areas all over the Earth as the Earth turns, and the altitude is low enough for relatively good pictures on a periodic basis (weekly) for any given location.”
Renewed condemnation
Despite its failure, members of the international community reminded North Korea that the launch, even despite its failure, violated U.N. resolutions meant to limit Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear capabilities.
“The EU strongly condemns the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) launch using ballistic military technology that occurred on 31 May,” Nabila Massrali, the regional bloc’s Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy said in a statement. “The EU calls on the DPRK to cease all actions that raise tensions and instead choose the path of dialogue with the main parties.”
The International Maritime Organization’s Maritime Safety Commission adopted a resolution that condemned North Korea for conducting the launch without proper notification and for not adhering to UN resolutions, and called for North Korea to “cease unlawful and unannounced ballistic missile launches across international shipping lanes.”
Lawmakers Anne-Marie Trevelyan of the U.K. and Young Kim of the U.S. also wrote tweets condemning the launch.
“Kim Jong Un's consistent & rogue aggression must be taken seriously by the United States & our Indo-Pacific allies,” Rep. Kim (R-Calif.) said. “We must stand firm in holding him accountable & working toward complete, verifiable, & irreversible denuclearization of North Korea.”
Reported by Lee Sangmin and Kim Soyoung for RFA Korean.
rfa.org
5. N. Korea adopts law on inspecting goods amid border opening speculation
Another indicator that the China-north Korea may soon open.
N. Korea adopts law on inspecting goods amid border opening speculation | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · June 1, 2023
SEOUL, June 1 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has adopted a law designed to beef up inspections of export and import goods, state media reported Thursday, amid speculation the secretive regime may soon reopen its border with China following years of COVID-19 restrictions.
The decision was made at a session of the Permanent Commission of the Presidium of the Supreme People's Assembly, the North's parliament, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). It did not disclose when the session was held.
The law on the examination of export and import goods will "help guarantee the quality and quantity of export and import goods and ensure the stability of trade by strictly establishing the stricter discipline and order inspections," the KCNA said in an English-language dispatch.
Speculation has been growing that the North may reopen its border with China as early as this month to permit people's cross-border movements after it imposed rigid COVID-19 restrictions in early 2020.
The North's trade with China has increased to near the pre-pandemic level since the country resumed operations of cargo trains crossing a railway bridge over its border river with the neighbor in September 2022. Railway-based cargo transportation also restarted between the North and Russia in November.
South Korea's spy agency told lawmakers Wednesday that the North increased the frequency of operating freight trains with China last month and has been preparing to further open a road linking the Chinese border city of Dandong and the North's Sinuiju.
But the pandemic still appears to be the main factor for the North's decision on the border reopening. The massive outbreak of "fever" patients in Pyongyang in May prompted the North to restrict people's movements in some areas of the capital, according to the National Intelligence Service.
This file photo, taken September 27, 2022, shows a cargo train crossing a railway bridge linking North Korea and China over the Amnok River. (Yonhap)
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · June 1, 2023
6. South Korea's 'warning' caused confusion
Excerpts:
Furthermore, this provocation posed a major challenge to the South Korean government's crisis management system, such as the warning alert system triggered by North Korea issues. Citizens who received the alert text message from the city of Seoul, which went off about 10 minutes after North Korea's rocket launch, were uneasy because of the “text message that did not specify the place or method of evacuation.” In addition, access to the portal site was temporarily suspended due to the surge in Internet search query volume. Then, about 20 minutes later, a text message from the Ministry of Public Administration and Security, saying that the alert from Seoul was "sent by mistake," left the citizens to be further confused. They are even pointing fingers at each other about these failed attempts at coordination between government agencies. And we would not be in a position to make any comment even if North Korea were mocking the Korean government.
It is the President’s Office that should be held accountable for the confusion caused in response mechanism. This is because it is the responsibility of the National Security Office - a security control tower - to assess the level of threat posed by North Korea and identify countermeasures accordingly. North Korea had long been professing to conduct rocket launches, which is why government offices and local governments should have made thorough preparations to address the North’s missile threats. Now is not the time to be complacent about our response posture.
South Korea's 'warning' caused confusion
donga.com
Posted June. 01, 2023 07:39,
Updated June. 01, 2023 07:39
South Korea's 'warning' caused confusion. June. 01, 2023 07:39. .
North Korea launched a rocket with an artificial satellite to the south yesterday morning, but it was unsuccessful due to an engine failure. North Korea said, “The new rocket ‘Chollima-1’ equipped with the military reconnaissance satellite ‘Malligyeong-1’ fell to the West Sea of Korea after losing thrust due to the abnormal starting of the second-stage engine after the separation of the first stage during the normal flight”. North Korea announced a "second launch as soon as possible." In response, the Seoul Metropolitan Government sent cell phone alerts signaling, "evacuation preparations" in relation to the North Korean rocket launch. However, it was withdrawn by the Ministry of Public Administration and Security when it said the alerts were "issued by mistake," illustrating that the South Korean government reacted in confusion.
North Korea's provocation by launching a rocket toward the south under the guise of developing a reconnaissance satellite resulted in failure. And it appears that it is the result of rushing the launch unreasonably to meet the regime's internal and external political agenda even though more technical preparations are needed. The day before, North Korea's second-in-command in the military announced that it was planning to make the launch sometime in June, intentionally causing tensions in neighboring countries to ease. Nevertheless, on the last day of May, the North tricked by launching its rocket by surprise but failed miserably, revealing its shoddy rocket technology.
This failure may be enough to dampen the high-spirited Kim Jong Un, but it will not be enough to deter North Korea's continued provocations. North Korea put a satellite back into orbit eight months after the failed launch of the Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite in 2012. In addition, despite numerous failed launches due to ballistic missile misfires or mid-air explosions in 2016-2017, North Korea never stopped developing mid and long-range missiles. Such folly will likely reignite Kim Jong Un's provocations toward the international community that has been in a hiatus for a while.
The Korean government and the international community should further solidify their resolution to respond to the obvious illegal act of violating the United Nations sanctions resolution against North Korea. The government has already warned North Korea that it "will have to bear the consequences and suffering." North Korea's failure should not be an opportunity for us to resume a lowered response posture. In other words, South Korea should push for a resolution to condemn and punish North Korea by convening the UN Security Council without hesitation. In addition, it is necessary to launch an all-out diplomatic war by putting up a new front to implement sanctions against North Korea.
Furthermore, this provocation posed a major challenge to the South Korean government's crisis management system, such as the warning alert system triggered by North Korea issues. Citizens who received the alert text message from the city of Seoul, which went off about 10 minutes after North Korea's rocket launch, were uneasy because of the “text message that did not specify the place or method of evacuation.” In addition, access to the portal site was temporarily suspended due to the surge in Internet search query volume. Then, about 20 minutes later, a text message from the Ministry of Public Administration and Security, saying that the alert from Seoul was "sent by mistake," left the citizens to be further confused. They are even pointing fingers at each other about these failed attempts at coordination between government agencies. And we would not be in a position to make any comment even if North Korea were mocking the Korean government.
It is the President’s Office that should be held accountable for the confusion caused in response mechanism. This is because it is the responsibility of the National Security Office - a security control tower - to assess the level of threat posed by North Korea and identify countermeasures accordingly. North Korea had long been professing to conduct rocket launches, which is why government offices and local governments should have made thorough preparations to address the North’s missile threats. Now is not the time to be complacent about our response posture.
한국어
donga.com
7. North Korea says it will try again ‘soon’ to launch spy satellite
North Korea says it will try again ‘soon’ to launch spy satellite
The Washington Post · by Min Joo Kim · May 30, 2023
SEOUL — North Korea said it would launch another rocket carrying a military spy satellite “as soon as possible,” after admitting an attempt Wednesday had failed in midflight due to “serious” defects.
North Korean military officials had said the country needed a “reliable reconnaissance information system” so that it could keep “a grip on enemy military activities in real time,” citing joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea.
North Korea fired a new type of rocket named Chollima-1 — after a mythological flying horse — about 6:29 a.m. local time Wednesday from its west coast and over South Korea’s westernmost Baengnyeong Island, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff.
But the projectile landed in South Korea’s western waters after an “abnormal flight” and before it could launch any object into orbit, according to officials in Seoul and Tokyo.
North Korea’s National Aerospace Development Administration said an “accident” occurred during the launch and “serious” defects caused the second stage of the rocket to malfunction.
It lost thrust midair due to engine failure and fell into the sea between South Korea and China, landing in the sea bordering their exclusive economic zones.
The North Korean military would “conduct the second launch as soon as possible through various part tests,” the official Korean Central News Agency in Pyongyang said Wednesday morning.
South Korea’s National Security Council said it will continue to monitor for the possibility of an additional launch from the North.
A marine salvage operation is underway to retrieve debris from the suspected space launch vehicle that fell into the sea, the South’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said.
The South Korean Defense Ministry released photos of the recovered debris, which appeared to be a rocket part connecting the stages together. Authorities will assess the debris to collect new information about North Korea’s space technology.
The North’s space launch is considered a breach of U.N. Security Council resolutions that restrict the regime from using ballistic missile technology, which can be used for carrying warheads or civilian payloads such as weather stations.
South Korean, Japanese and U.S. officials all condemned the launch, with U.S. National Security Council spokesman Adam Hodge adding that the “door has not closed on diplomacy.”
The launch set off alarm bells — literally — in South Korea and Japan.
The 25 million residents of Seoul heard air raid sirens blast out across the South Korean capital about 6:32 a.m. local time Wednesday, warning of a North Korean missile launch. Although North Korean missile launches are a regular occurrence, air raid sirens in South Korea are not, and they alarmed some residents.
The air raid sirens and the warning for citizens to prepare for potential evacuation turned out to be a “false alert,” the Ministry of Interior and Safety said.
The error raised concerns about the capital’s contingency planning and preparedness. Opposition lawmakers rebuked the Yoon administration, saying it mishandled the emergency response and caused confusion.
“This amateurish government has been all words about security but did a clumsy job in an actual [emergency] response, unsettling the public,” said Park Seong-jun, a spokesman for the main opposition Democratic Party.
Japan also issued an alert on the southern island of Okinawa for residents to “take shelter inside a building or underground immediately,” but the alert was lifted 30 minutes later.
Pyongyang had previously warned Japan of its plans to launch a space satellite sometime between May 31 and June 11.
Tokyo on Monday condemned the plan as a cover for a potential missile launch and ordered its military to destroy any North Korean missile that entered its territory.
Although Wednesday’s launch failed, North Korea has proved it can master difficult technology against the odds.
After numerous missile failures during 2017, North Korea successfully launched its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) — on a “lofted” trajectory, so it went up and fell into the sea.
Since then, it has refined its technology through repeated launches, firing more than 100 missiles since the beginning of 2022.
North Korea has been firing off missile after missile this past year — in fact, nearly every time Kim Jong Un’s regime has launched, its propagandists claimed they have made significant advancements in their nuclear and weapons program.
The flurry of tests shows that Kim is making his arsenal of missiles easier to launch and harder to track — and that one day, it will be capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
In April, Kim presided over the launch of a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile, the Hwasong-18. Kim has long wanted this technology: Solid-fuel propellants are easier to operate than liquid-propelled missiles, and most countries with ICBMs maintain a mix of both types.
Julia Mio Inuma in Tokyo contributed to this report.
The Washington Post · by Min Joo Kim · May 30, 2023
8. Korea joins exclusive club with successful L-SAM test
Good news.
Thursday
June 1, 2023
dictionary + A - A
Korea joins exclusive club with successful L-SAM test
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/06/01/national/defense/Korea-Agency-for-Defense-Development-weapons/20230601172558767.html
The Agency for Defense Development revealed that the domestically developed long-range surface-to-air missile (L-SAM) system had passed its third test. [DEFENSE MINISTRY]
A Korean-developed missile interception system passed its third test out of four earlier this week, according to the national weapons development agency.
According to the Agency for Defense Development (ADD), the successful test is a milestone that makes Korea the third country in the world after the United States and Israel to successfully develop a missile defense system that is effective at higher altitudes.
The agency, which spearheads research and development in domestic defense technology, also showed reporters how the interception test of the long-range surface-to-air missile (L-SAM) system unfolded at its testing site in Taean, South Chungcheong, on Tuesday.
Interceptors launched by the L-SAM system are three-stage projectiles, with the third stage also known as the “Kill Vehicle” designed to actually hit incoming ballistic missiles.
With an interception altitude range between 50 and 60 kilometers (31 and 37 miles), the L-SAM once deployed would compensate for the current limitations of the country’s multi-layer anti-missile plan, known as Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD).
During the ADD’s on-screen demonstration of the L-SAM system to reporters, a Kill Vehicle successfully separated from its first and second stages and accurately struck its target missile.
The demonstration was also attended by senior Korean government officials, including Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup, and ADD research staff.
According to Lee, the domestically developed L-SAM “expands [South Korean] missile defense to the upper layer of the terminal phase [of an enemy missile’s flight path], thereby not only improving [South Korea’s] ability to respond to North Korean missile threats but also contributing greatly to strengthening the missile defense capabilities of the South Korea-U.S. alliance.”
The ADD has conducted four L-SAM interception tests since November, with three tests succeeding.
The Defense Ministry said that it plans to complete the development of the domestic L-SAM system by the end of next year and commence mass production in 2025.
The ministry hopes to begin the system’s deployment in the late 2020s.
Although South Korean missile defense already includes several interception systems, including U.S.-developed Patriot Advanced Capability-3 interceptors and Cheongung-II medium-range surface-to-air (M-SAM) systems, these are only effective at altitudes of 40 kilometers or lower.
Further, while United States Forces Korea operates a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery in Seongju, the battery’s coverage does not extend over Seoul.
Thaad is capable of shooting down incoming missiles in their descent phase at altitudes between 40 and 150 kilometers.
KAMD is one of three components in South Korea’s so-called "K-3 strategy" designed to deter North Korea’s escalating missile and nuclear weapons threats.
The others are Kill Chain, which relies on surface-to-surface missiles and earth-penetrating weapons to destroy North Korean missile-launching capabilities before missiles can be fired, and the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation system, which would target individuals in North Korea's leadership and military command.
Defense experts interviewed by the Korea JoongAng Daily have highlighted advances in North Korean missiles in recent years as necessitating improvements in South Korea’s missile defense systems.
Antoine Bondaz, director of the Korea Program for the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research, noted that newly tested North Korean missiles such as the KN-23 and KN-24 do not fly in the usual parabolic trajectories of ballistic missiles, but can perform “pull-up” maneuvers at lower altitudes as they approach their targets, thereby evading missile defense system that targets them in their descent phase.
Retired Lt. Col. Kim Yeoul-soo, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs, said that “anti-missile defense systems would have to increase in range and become more varied to target different types of North Korean missiles.”
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
9. Pyongyang seeks to portray rocket as science effort by admitting failure: experts
The regime is getting smarter with its propaganda. But notice this is only external messaging. They are not reporting the failure to the Korean people in the north.
But we know that the regime cannot keep up with South Korea in the space race.
Pyongyang seeks to portray rocket as science effort by admitting failure: experts
The Korea Times · June 1, 2023
This photo released Thursday by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency shows its Chollima-1 rocket, carrying a spy satellite, takes off from an undisclosed location in North Korea the previous day. Yonhap
Yet regime keeps information about botched project from its own people
By Jung Min-ho
North Korea's unusually prompt admission of the failure of its purported reconnaissance satellite launch shows the regime's effort to characterize the project as a scientific endeavor and not part of its missile program as suspected by Seoul, Washington, Japan and many other governments, according to experts, Thursday.
Less than three hours after Wednesday's failed rocket launch, North Korea admitted the failure and vowed in a message to the world to step up efforts to place a new one in orbit soon, although it did not disclose the botched attempt to its own people.
"The regime appeared to highlight that it has the technology required for a satellite launch and it is sincere about that effort, providing a counterargument against claims that it was just part of its weapons program," Cha Du-hyeogn, a senior researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, a think tank, said.
"North Korea would need to justify the rocket test as some countries are expected to push for additional sanctions or resolutions through the U.N. Security Council."
This is why Pyongyang, in a rare move, released pictures of the failed launch, said Cheong Seong-chang, an expert on North Korea at the Sejong Institute, a think tank.
"In the photos, the rocket projectile looks clearly different from the one used for the ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) tests," he noted.
A TV screen shows a file image of Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, during a news program at the Seoul Station in Seoul, Thursday. AP-Yonhap
Such efforts can also be observed in the comments of Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. She said, Thursday, that her country's efforts to acquire space-based reconnaissance capabilities are its sovereign right and dismissed U.N. Security Council resolutions that prohibit the North from any test involving ballistic missile technology.
"If the DPRK's (North Korea) satellite launch should be particularly censured, the U.S. and all other countries, which have already launched thousands of satellites, should be denounced. This is nothing but sophism of self-contradiction," she said. "It is certain that the DPRK's military reconnaissance satellite will be correctly put in space orbit in the near future and start its mission."
However, that ambition might not materialize. Technological advancements are hard to achieve in a short period and a second satellite launch failure would be a heavy ― possibly too risky ― political burden to the regime, experts say.
"If what North Korea claimed about the launch test was all true, that means its satellite was destroyed along with the launch vehicle. Thus, it needs to make another satellite as well as a new, more advanced vehicle in order to succeed, which will take quite a long time," Cha said. "If North Korea conducts another test in the near future as it said it would, it was likely that the North tested only the vehicle, which would reinforce suspicion that the launch was part of its effort to advance its ICBM technology."
He said North Korea's second satellite test will likely end in "success," not because it would achieve a noteworthy improvement in technology by then, but because it would focus more on putting satellites in space ― the ability the regime proved it had through past rocket tests.
Cheong agreed, saying it will be difficult for the North to conduct another test any time soon.
"It is possible that North Korea would push for the test just before its Day of Victory (July 27) or founding anniversary (Sept. 9). But most likely, it is expected to be carried out at the end of 2023 or the beginning of the next year," he said.
An official at the Ministry of Unification told The Korea Times that no information about the rocket launch failure was so far published in the media which ordinary North Koreans have access to.
The Korea Times · June 1, 2023
10. S Korea’s call for nuclear weapons has quieted – for now
A quid pro quo between the ROK and US - or is the Washington Declaration an example of the maturation of the alliance?
Excerpts:
The quid pro quo was Seoul’s reiteration of dedication to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, effectively quieting the South Korean indigenous nuclear weapon debate.
Whether it remains quiet is likely, in the short-to-medium term, to depend on the quality, personnel-rank level, rhythm, momentum and effectiveness of NCG meetings, as well as the identity of the occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave on January 20, 2025.
Another factor will be the connection of the incipient South Korean conventional Strategic Command with the capabilities and planning of US-South Korea Combined Forces Command, and, by extension, to the US Strategic Command.
In the long term, South Korea’s satisfaction with extended deterrence is likely to depend on the interplay of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal advancement or rollback and the evolution of the NCG toward a status similar to that of NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group. (One notes that the US has pointedly denied that the NCG could morph into a NATO-style nuclear-sharing arrangement.)
If Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons growth goes unchecked, or if the NCG fails to progress, the Washington Declaration will end up a temporary band-aid on South Korean desires for nuclear weapons. Indeed, the conservative media in South Korea were critical of the Washington Declaration and NCG even before Yoon landed in Seoul after his trip to Washington.
S Korea’s call for nuclear weapons has quieted – for now
But those calls could reignite if Washington Declaration fails to assuage Seoul’s growing nuclear insecurities
asiatimes.com · by Mason Richey · May 17, 2023
North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, started 2023 with a January 1 missile launch and kept at it throughout the winter. This followed record-breaking 2022 North Korean missile tests and demonstrations, which totaled approximately 70 launches of around 100 projectiles.
Given the near-zero prospects for North Korean denuclearization and the growing arsenal at Pyongyang’s disposal, it is understandable that any South Korean president would be focused on Korean Peninsula security issues.
The audacious nature of Yoon Suk Yeol’s refocusing on South Korean security—following attempts to broaden Seoul’s global influence—was surprising and controversial, however.
On January 11, apparently fed up with perceived South Korean vulnerability to its nuclear-armed consanguine, and perhaps irritated with the Joe Biden administration’s slow realization of this South Korean sentiment, Yoon made a pronouncement that no democratic leader in Seoul had ever made publicly before:
He stated that South Korea – which benefits from US extended nuclear deterrence – could still consider acquiring its own nuclear weapons, if “North Korean provocations continue intensifying.”
This set off a diplomatic kerfuffle that has resonated on both sides of the 38th parallel, as well as in Washington and Beijing.
Given the provocative nature of Yoon’s statement, the South Korean presidential office later backtracked, “clarifying” that Yoon was simply expressing his “firm commitment to defending the nation” against North Korea’s nuclear threats, and that while the “worst case scenario must be taken into consideration,” “the principle of abiding by the [Nuclear] Nonproliferation Treaty holds.”
In any event, Washington took notice of its anxious ally, responding with demonstrations of commitment to extended deterrence for South Korea – including a visit by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and strategic asset deployments to South Korea.
All this was in addition to regular combined military exercises and naval exercises featuring US aircraft carrier strike groups. Washington also consented to more bilateral consultation with Seoul regarding the US nuclear umbrella.
The saga concluded – at least for the present – with the Washington Declaration promulgated at the Biden-Yoon summit in late April.
US President Joe Biden speaks as South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol listens during a news conference at the People’s House inside the Ministry of National Defense in Seoul’s Yongsan District, May 21, 2022. Photo: Yonhap
The declaration promises tightened US-South Korea extended deterrence coordination and consultation, while the leaders’ summit – in the context of Yoon’s state visit to celebrate 70 years of US-South Korea alliance relations – functioned as a renewal of Washington-Seoul ties.
These ties are now perhaps as strong as they ever have been. If Pyongyang reckoned that increased belligerence would decouple the US-South Korea alliance, it seemingly miscalculated.
Long confined to the loony fringe, South Korean conservative rhetoric advocating nuclear weapons development has gone mainstream in 2023.
South Korea has had – and perhaps still has – legitimate questions and concerns about the credibility of US extended deterrence in the face of North Korea’s growing nuclear weapons arsenal. The North now can strike continental US targets – thus complicating and injecting uncertainty into a potential US decision to retaliate with nuclear weapons in the event of a North Korean nuclear attack on South Korea.
These questions and concerns – clear in elite conservative political discourse – explain most of the rhetoric supporting South Korean development of an independent nuclear deterrent.
There are elements of desire for (inter)national prestige and worry about the need to hedge against rising China built into the pro-nuclear weapon discussion in South Korea. But what seemingly motivates South Korea’s conservative political elites to broach “going nuclear” is a perceived lack of US reassurance vis-à-vis the North Korean nuclear threat.
Domestic political opportunism presumably also plays a role, as some South Korean conservative politicians have – perhaps incorrectly – interpreted high popular support (60-70%) for South Korean nuclear weapons as (a) stemming from a lack of US extended deterrence credibility, and thus (b) a ground for shoring up political support ahead of 2024 general elections.
After Yoon’s crossing of the nuclear Rubicon during his January 11 presser, Hong Joon-pyo, a veteran heavyweight in the conservative People Power Party (PPP), indicated support for the president’s position.
Also in mid-January, Seoul mayor Oh Se-hoon, a star conservative, argued for South Korean nuclear weapons. Oh intensified that stance in a high-profile March interview with Reuters in which he called for South Korean nuclear weapons even in the face of costs and risks from international opprobrium (sanctions, strained diplomatic ties, etc).
A national assemblyman and former chairperson of the PPP, Chung Jin-suk, broached South Korean indigenous nuclear weapons in late February. North Korean defector and current South Korean National Assemblyman Thae Yong-ho has been on the record multiple times calling for South Korean nuclear weapons.
Whether intended or not, this dam-break in loose nuke talk accelerated, broadened and deepened attempts by Washington to enhance extended deterrence (in fact this was already underway in 2022 with the revived Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group).
The initial Biden administration response to the outbreak of nuclear armament discussion in early 2023 seemed to focus on deterrent capabilities: air warfare training featuring F-35s, F-22s, B-52s, and B1Bs; aircraft carrier strike group visits to exercise with South Korean naval units; increased trilateral exercises (including on missile defense) with Japan.
But the crux of South Korea’s anxieties does not concern capabilities, about which there is no doubt in Seoul or Pyongyang. The real issue is reassurance, which is ultimately a question of political will.
Consequently, Washington decided to offer Seoul greater possibilities for US-South Korea extended deterrence consultations, and to institute joint nuclear-focused table-top exercises that could give South Korean officials and officers better insight into US nuclear-use decision-making for extended deterrence.
With the subject of South Korea’s independent nuclear deterrent still alive in April, during the lead-up to President Yoon’s state visit to Washington, DC and accompanying summit, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan was foreshadowing “major deliverables” on extended deterrence.
North Korean state media says leader Kim Jong Un “personally guided” a test of a simulated underwater nuclear strategic weapon on March 21, 2023. Image: CNN / Screengrab
That turned out to be the Washington Declaration, which commits the alliance to “deeper, cooperative decision-making on nuclear deterrence, including through enhanced dialogue and information regarding growing nuclear threats to the ROK and the region.”
To this end, the Washington Declaration establishes the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG), which institutionalizes a high-level consultation mechanism enabling South Korea to better understand US policy, posture and logic regarding nuclear use in an extended deterrence context, and on that basis to communicate Seoul’s position.
The Washington Declaration also institutionalizes the table-top simulations mentioned above and promises regular “visible” strategic asset deployments on and around the Korean Peninsula, starting with the first US nuclear ballistic-missile submarine (SSBN) port call in South Korea since 1981.
The quid pro quo was Seoul’s reiteration of dedication to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, effectively quieting the South Korean indigenous nuclear weapon debate.
Whether it remains quiet is likely, in the short-to-medium term, to depend on the quality, personnel-rank level, rhythm, momentum and effectiveness of NCG meetings, as well as the identity of the occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave on January 20, 2025.
Another factor will be the connection of the incipient South Korean conventional Strategic Command with the capabilities and planning of US-South Korea Combined Forces Command, and, by extension, to the US Strategic Command.
In the long term, South Korea’s satisfaction with extended deterrence is likely to depend on the interplay of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal advancement or rollback and the evolution of the NCG toward a status similar to that of NATO’s Nuclear Planning Group. (One notes that the US has pointedly denied that the NCG could morph into a NATO-style nuclear-sharing arrangement.)
If Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons growth goes unchecked, or if the NCG fails to progress, the Washington Declaration will end up a temporary band-aid on South Korean desires for nuclear weapons. Indeed, the conservative media in South Korea were critical of the Washington Declaration and NCG even before Yoon landed in Seoul after his trip to Washington.
Mason Richey is an associate professor at Hanguk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul. He is co-editor of the volume The Future of the Korean Peninsula: 2032 and Beyond, just published by Routledge.
This article, abridged from one originally published by the Pacific Forum in Honolulu, is extracted from Comparative Connections: A Triannual E-Journal of Bilateral Relations in the Indo-Pacific, Volume 25, Number 1, May 2023, and republished with kind permission.
asiatimes.com · by Mason Richey · May 17, 2023
11. IMO adopts first-ever resolution condemning N. Korea's missile launches
IMO adopts first-ever resolution condemning N. Korea's missile launches
The Korea Times · by 2023-06-01 08:14 | North Korea · June 1, 2023
This photo provided by Korea's Defense Ministry, shows an object salvaged by Korea's military that is presumed to be part of the North Korean space-launch vehicle that crashed into sea following a launch failure in waters off Eocheongdo island, Korea, Wednesday, May 31. Yonhap
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopted a resolution strongly condemning North Korea's missile tests for the first time earlier this week, in a clear message to the reclusive country against its escalating provocations.
The resolution, adopted at the 107th session of the IMO's Maritime Safety Committee (MSC) in London on Wednesday (local time), denounced the launches as a serious threat to the safety of international navigation and urged compliance with due regulations, including giving prior notice ahead of any missile tests.
In a press release, South Korea's foreign ministry stressed that it marks the first time the committee handling maritime safety issues has adopted a resolution on the North's missile provocations, though it has condemned the tests previously.
North Korea has escalated its saber-rattling recently, launching what it claimed to be a "space launch vehicle" allegedly carrying a military reconnaissance satellite earlier this week.
Official documents adopted by the IMO are classified into resolutions, circulars and decisions, with resolutions considered as the most powerful recommendations to its member states, according to the ministry.
Kim's sister says NK will 'correctly' place spy satellite into orbit soon after failed launch
Previously, the MSC has adopted circulars expressing grave concerns over Pyongyang's continued missile launches without prior notification to the IMO in 1998, 2006 and 2016.
The resolution is not legally binding but offers its recommendation of maritime affairs as guidelines to IMO member countries, stepping up the international community's pressure on the North.
The IMO, headquartered in London, is a specialized agency of the United Nations responsible for regulating shipping. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · by 2023-06-01 08:14 | North Korea · June 1, 2023
12. NATO's Stoltenberg condemns North Korea's satellite launch
NATO's Stoltenberg condemns North Korea's satellite launch
The Korea Times · June 1, 2023
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, front row center, and foreign Ministers, including U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, front row fifth from right, pose during a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Oslo, Norway, Thursday. AP-Yonhap
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Thursday said he condemned North Korea's failed satellite launch, adding he called upon the country to "cease these provocative actions."
A North Korean satellite launch on Wednesday ended in failure, sending the booster and payload plunging into the sea, North Korean state media said.
North Korea's Kim Yo-jong, leader Kim Jong-un's sister, said her country would soon put a military spy satellite into orbit and promised Pyongyang would increase its military surveillance capabilities, state media KCNA reported earlier on Thursday. (Reuters)
The Korea Times · June 1, 2023
13. Pyongyang's Strategic Calculus and Future Trajectory
Excerpts:
The path forward remains murky for the foreseeable future, and options are limited. The Washington Declaration is commendable for its groundbreaking steps to further bolster US defense commitments to South Korea, such as by creating a Nuclear Consultative Group for the two allies to formulate a joint response to North Korea’s nuclear use. Yet, its heavy focus on deterrence without addressing the fundamental problem at hand, curbing North Korea’s nuclear program, is a stark reminder that the current cycle of escalation will persist. Measures taken by one side to improve security will be perceived as a threat by the other side, building on its pretext to keep bolstering defense. For instance, in reaction to the latest US-South Korea summit, Pyongyang reaffirmed that it would “bolster up its military deterrence corresponding to the grave security environment.” The Chinese and Russian Foreign Ministries also have accused the document of “jeopardized[ing]” or “destabilizing” regional security.
To reduce nuclear risk and prevent armed conflict, the two allies’ efforts toward deterrence should be coupled with endeavors to seek avenues of diplomacy with North Korea and other key stakeholders in the region. If government-level engagement is unfeasible, a track-1.5 regional dialogue could be a useful starting point. This will help stakeholders to better understand each other’s concerns and perceptions toward the regional security environment while launching a discussion on the practicable first steps toward the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. If the new Chinese ambassador’s recent arrival in Pyongyang is indeed a sign of a gradual reopening of North Korea’s borders, it could provide more opportunities for diplomatic engagement.
Might we expect a revival of the 2017-2018 scenario, where momentum dramatically shifted from “fire and fury” to Kim Jong Un’s debut on the world stage with the US president? North Korea will probably return to nuclear talks at some point, but not until it has achieved most, if not all, of its five-year defense development plan. When it does, the terms of negotiations will likely change significantly.
Pyongyang's Strategic Calculus and Future Trajectory
Rachel Minyoung Lee
Date Published: May 31, 2023
North Korea’s intensified military activities must be viewed in the broader context of its domestic and foreign policy. The country’s current policies have their roots in the failed US-North Korea summit in Hanoi in February 2019, which heralded a wave of conservatism across all realms. This shift to conservatism, coupled with the North Korean leadership’s changing perception of the international order, has resulted in what could be a fundamental pivot in the country’s three-decade policy toward the United States, China, and Russia; if continued, it will have profound implications for the shape and outcome of nuclear negotiations going forward.
gjia.georgetown.edu · · May 31, 2023
North Korea has catapulted back into the headlines recently with a spate of notable military activities—including several first-time tests such as that of a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and a nuclear-armed unmanned underwater vehicle. Such unprecedented military actions since the fall of 2022 raise questions about the country’s intentions among North Korea watchers and policymakers both at home and abroad. The country’s five-year defense development plan, articulated at the Eighth Party Congress in early 2021, could justify weapons tests, but it does not explain the unusual concentration of missile launches. Nor does the resumption of large-scale US-South Korea joint military drills alone elucidate North Korea’s unusual tit-for-tat responses.
Beyond the military aspects of Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile developments, it is just as important to examine the context in which the North Korean government is forming its decisions. Understanding how North Korea perceives the domestic and external environments lends a clearer insight into the country’s thinking, especially its longer-term strategic goals. In that vein, this piece explores the domestic and external factors behind the significant step-up in North Korea’s military activities over the past year, with special consideration given to the change in the country’s strategic calculations and the potential implications for future nuclear negotiations. The article concludes with an analysis of potential options to manage the rising risks on and around the Korean Peninsula.
Post-Hanoi Domestic and External Repositioning
North Korea’s current trajectory is consistent with its turn toward inward policies following the failure of the second US-North Korea summit in Hanoi in February 2019. Kim Jong Un’s depiction of US-North Korea relations as a “protracted confrontation” at a Party plenary meeting at the end of 2019 encapsulates the essence of the country’s post-Hanoi policy space. The summit’s failure proved to be pivotal as it brought a setback to the plans Pyongyang had likely made on the assumption that a deal would be reached in Hanoi, such as remedying the economy through sanctions relief. The fallout at the summit then became a turning point for the North Korean leadership to rethink the country’s prospects for its relations with Washington. Rethinking prospects for US-North Korea relations naturally meant a course correction on the domestic and foreign policy fronts.
In the wake of the summit’s collapse, Kim brought back to the fore a policy of “self-reliance”—a term that has traditionally been equated with closing the door to diplomacy, mainly vis-à-vis South Korea and the West. Made easier by the COVID-19 border lockdown instituted in 2020, Kim’s call for self-reliance heralded tightened control across all realms. Examples of this ranged from enacting laws penalizing the distribution and consumption of foreign cultural content, exercising greater control over foreign trade, and calls for reducing dependence on foreign technology.
Like its domestic policies, North Korea’s foreign policy shifted to a harder line following the Hanoi summit’s collapse. This is well exemplified by the resumption of missile launches in the months after the summit in 2019 and the emphasis on building its defense industry, culminating in the new five-year defense development plan in early 2021. In the following years, North Korea continued to show signs of assertiveness, after concluding that the North Korea policy of the current administration, under Joseph R. Biden Jr., was no less “hostile” than his predecessors’. In March 2022, Pyongyang fired its first ICBM since 2017, officially lifting the moratorium on longer-range missile and nuclear testing that had been in place since April 2018. Later that year, Pyongyang enacted a new nuclear law stipulating the terms of nuclear use; in a speech, Kim noted that a “line of no retreat” had been drawn and that there would “be no longer any bargaining” over the country’s nuclear weapons—his strongest comment in public on the subject. This appeared to signal a reversal of Pyongyang’s three-decade policy of seeking normalization of relations with the United States through denuclearization.
North Korea’s recalibration of its policy on Washington has gone hand in hand with a change in its thirty-year position of nonalignment with Beijing and Moscow. It has steadily improved relations with China since the failure of the Hanoi summit, as evidenced by Xi Jinping’s rare “state visit” to Pyongyang in June 2019 and North Korea’s unusually vocal endorsement of China over the Hong Kong and Taiwan issues. North Korea’s pivot toward Russia is recent but more pronounced. Starting with implicit support for Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine, a notable change in North Korea’s outlook towards Russia came in Kim’s letter to Putin in June 2022, where he mentioned “strategic and tactical cooperation” between the two countries. Traditionally before this point, this expression was reserved for China, thus signifying a shift.
Kim’s Changing Strategic Calculus
North Korea’s repositioning vis-à-vis the United States, China, and Russia seems to stem from its changing view of the global order, specifically the US’s perceived role in future nuclear negotiations and economic reform. Kim first signaled this last fall when he explicitly mentioned “the change from a unipolar world advocated by the United States into a multipolar world.” This observation, coming from Kim himself, was unusual and notable for two reasons. First, while North Korean media had discussed the multi-polarization of the global order, it was unusual for Kim himself to refer to it, reflecting the seriousness with which the country’s top leadership was taking this development. Second, Kim’s remarks followed the China-Russia joint statement adopted on February 4, 2022, which declared a friendship with “no limits” and pledged to “advance multipolarity … of international relations.” Judging from Pyongyang’s swift and decisive pivot to Russia following the adoption of this joint statement, it seems the North Korean leadership saw in the document a new global order where US leadership was waning on the world stage.
These developments could be near- to mid-term adjustments for political cover in the United Nations Security Council or economic gains. However, if they indeed reflect a more fundamental change in the North Korean leadership’s thinking, then they will have deeper implications for the country’s approach to any future nuclear negotiations. Pyongyang, which has already declared itself an “irreversible” nuclear state, will have even less motivation to work toward denuclearization if it views China and Russia as a longer-term solution to its regime security vis-à-vis the United States.
The strategic value of the United States could drop even more for Pyongyang, depending on where it stands on economic reform and how it envisions making headway with improving the economy. Historically, there has been a strong correlation between North Korea’s desire for economic reform and its efforts to improve foreign relations, namely with the United States. This reiterates Pyongyang’s belief that mended ties with the United States—which it has referred to as a “favorable external environment”—are crucial to the success of reform. Although it does not seem that North Korea has rolled back on its initial initiatives, moves toward greater centralization of the economy in recent years have been a setback to reform. Additionally, if the will for economic reform fades out of Pyongyang’s long-term strategy, or if Pyongyang somehow believes it could jump-start stagnant reform with the promising alternative of Chinese capital flow—historically successful despite UN sanctions—reliance on improved relations with the United States may decline further. This could have dire consequences for the region’s security.
Regional Implications and Way Forward
North Korea’s rapid nuclear and missile advancements have prompted shifts in the region’s security dynamics. South Korea’s nuclear debate, which remained on the fringes in the past, has gone mainstream. Japan’s recent revisions of its key security documents also mentioned North Korea as one of its three biggest threats, reflecting heightened concerns. Tensions are also building in the Taiwan Strait, giving way to speculation that a cross-Strait conflict might come to pass. Should such a conflict arise, North Korea’s positioning will be crucial. With Seoul’s unmistakable pivot to the United States and Japan and Pyongyang’s aforementioned alignment with China and Russia, the confrontational dynamic between the US-South Korea-Japan and China-Russia-North Korea seems dangerous at best.
The path forward remains murky for the foreseeable future, and options are limited. The Washington Declaration is commendable for its groundbreaking steps to further bolster US defense commitments to South Korea, such as by creating a Nuclear Consultative Group for the two allies to formulate a joint response to North Korea’s nuclear use. Yet, its heavy focus on deterrence without addressing the fundamental problem at hand, curbing North Korea’s nuclear program, is a stark reminder that the current cycle of escalation will persist. Measures taken by one side to improve security will be perceived as a threat by the other side, building on its pretext to keep bolstering defense. For instance, in reaction to the latest US-South Korea summit, Pyongyang reaffirmed that it would “bolster up its military deterrence corresponding to the grave security environment.” The Chinese and Russian Foreign Ministries also have accused the document of “jeopardized[ing]” or “destabilizing” regional security.
To reduce nuclear risk and prevent armed conflict, the two allies’ efforts toward deterrence should be coupled with endeavors to seek avenues of diplomacy with North Korea and other key stakeholders in the region. If government-level engagement is unfeasible, a track-1.5 regional dialogue could be a useful starting point. This will help stakeholders to better understand each other’s concerns and perceptions toward the regional security environment while launching a discussion on the practicable first steps toward the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. If the new Chinese ambassador’s recent arrival in Pyongyang is indeed a sign of a gradual reopening of North Korea’s borders, it could provide more opportunities for diplomatic engagement.
Might we expect a revival of the 2017-2018 scenario, where momentum dramatically shifted from “fire and fury” to Kim Jong Un’s debut on the world stage with the US president? North Korea will probably return to nuclear talks at some point, but not until it has achieved most, if not all, of its five-year defense development plan. When it does, the terms of negotiations will likely change significantly.
. . .
Rachel Minyoung Lee is the Regional Issues Manager and Senior Analyst at the Vienna-based Open Nuclear Network and a nonresident fellow with the Stimson Center’s 38 North Program. From 2000 to 2019, she was a North Korea collection expert and analyst at the Open Source Enterprise under the CIA.
Image Credit: Stefan Krasowski
gjia.georgetown.edu · by Zara Ali · May 31, 2023
14. Panel: COVID-19 fueled human rights abuses in Asia
Human rights are a national security issue.
Note also that a conference in Korea is covering more than just Korea issues. This seems to be in line with President Yoon's vision as a global pivotal state as well as in keeping with the ROK's INDOPACOM strategy.
Panel: COVID-19 fueled human rights abuses in Asia - UPI.com
By Darryl Coote
upi.com
1/5
Rayhan Asat, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, and Maiko Ichihara, professor at Hitotsubashi University, participate in the Human Rights across Asia: Dilemmas and Solutions panel during the Jeju Forum for Peace and Prosperity in Seogwipo City, Jeju, South Korea, on Wednesday. Photo by Darryl Coote/UPI
JEJU ISLAND, South Korea, May 31 (UPI) -- The COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent response from governments to quell the spread of the virus fueled human rights abuses across Asia, a panel of experts said Wednesday, with grave abuses committed by China against its Uyghur minority population and North Korea against its citizens.
During the pandemic, governments concentrated power and implemented draconian sanctions for those who violated COVID-19-related measures while authoritarian regimes sought to attack democracy by targeting liberal concepts, such as human rights, said Maiko Ichihara, a professor at the Graduate School of Law and Hitotsubashi University.
Advertisement
Ichihara was one of four experts and activists to speak during a panel on the topic of human rights in Asia during the Jeju Forum, which is ostensibly a peace forum held annually on South Korea's resort island of Jeju, located about 60 miles south of the Korean mainland.
Advertisement
During the talk, Ichihara pointed to Malaysia as an example of a government that sought to concentrate power and did so by suspending its parliament in order to implement policies without opposition.
"And the Indonesian government did a very similar thing," she said, "basically creating COVID-related counter-measures without allowing objections from the legislature."
She continued that the punishments doled out for curfew violations were "very harsh" in some countries, including India where people were "beaten up on the streets and in the Philippines where violators were put into dog cages."
Several countries in Asia also enacted anti-fake-news laws under the pretext of clamping down on COVID-19 disinformation but were used to suppress journalists, she said.
In a wider perspective, China and Russia, in particular, were attacking the legitimacy of human rights and other democratic ideals, such as democracy itself and elections, in order to destabilize democratic nations, which she said creates a "synergy" with the domestic human rights abuses.
China was a nation that came up frequently during the panel concerning violators of human rights in Asia, with Rayhan Asat, a leading Uyghur lawyer and a human rights advocate, telling UPI that during the pandemic surveillance techniques that have been employed to control Beijing's Uyghur Muslim population in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region were exported to areas where COVID measures were met with protests.
Advertisement
An estimated 1 million Uyghurs and other Muslim minority citizens are believed to be arbitrarily interned in Xinjiang camps. While China claims they are re-education camps for the purpose of stamping out terrorism, members of the international community have repeatedly accused Beijing of committing serious human rights abuses, including forced labor, torture and sterilization, against those it holds in those compounds.
Several countries, including the United States, have accused China of committing genocide.
Asat called the camps and the Xinjiang region they are located in a "techno-authoritarian model" and a "laboratory for committing human rights abuses in other parts of China."
And she said some of the surveillance measures utilized in Xinjiang, including increased police inspections, were exported to regions and cities where protests occurred.
The senior fellow at the Atlantic Council also blamed the deaths of 10 people in a residential fire that erupted in an apartment building in the Xinjiang capital of Urumqi on China's COVID-19 measures.
The fire erupted on Nov. 24, 2022, while Urumqi was in a lockdown that began in August. She said the COVID-19 measures prevented people from escaping the building.
"These issues are so interrelated," she said, referring to China's COVID-19 human rights abuses and its human rights abuses committed against its Uyghur population, "and I was very heartened to see Chinese people starting to rise up and protest, but, except it stopped just short. This is about COVID, not human rights abuses that are happening against the Uyghur population."
Advertisement
Hanna Song, director of international cooperation and a researcher at the Database Center for North Korean Human Rights, said thousands of North Koreans who have escaped their native country and are in hiding China have also been victimized by the Xi regime's surveillance laws that were expanded during the pandemic.
She added that a large concern with North Koreans amid the restrictions put in place by governments is that little information about these victimized people is reaching researchers and advocates in China but also at home.
The reason why, she said, is because so few North Koreans have been able to escape amid the pandemic.
During the height of defectors during the famine of 1994 to 1998, some 2,000 people a year fled the country and reached South Korea, she said. In 2022, only 67 made the perilous journey, which is an increase from about 63 the year before.
"And we don't expect to see much more, even as the whole world opens up their borders," she said.
Organizations like hers rely on North Korean escapees for information on human rights abuses, including those being committed by the Kim Jong Un regime during the pandemic.
Advertisement
"Many experts are calling this the new dark ages," she said. "Just because we hear little about what is happening in North Korea, it doesn't mean nothing is happening."
upi.com
15. North Korea's worsening story
Many of us suffer from "north Korea fatigue." The two same old stories: the nuclear and missile threats, and the severe hunger and suffering among the Korean people in the north. But we cannot ignore either story as they are linked and both are a danger to the peninsula, the region, the US, and the international community.
North Korea's worsening story
The Korea Times · June 1, 2023
By Donald Kirk
We're accustomed to two basic stories from North Korea. First is the North's nuclear and missile programs. Kim Jong-un is forever ordering missile tests, and he may also be considering the North's seventh nuclear test ― which would be its first since September 2017.
The other story revolves around hunger, starvation and disease. One might think the North had learned enough of a lesson from the experience of the 1990s when famine wiped out as many as 2 million of its people.
But no, even as Kim was declaring he will soon put a spy satellite into orbit, we were getting reports that North Korea has quite a distinction. The North, while plunging into another period of widespread hunger, ranks first on the Global Survey Index conducted by Walk Free, an Australian outfit that's doing what it can to wipe out slavery all around the earth.
That's quite a tall order, which Walk Free undoubtedly will not accomplish, but meanwhile, it's putting out fascinating statistics on the levels of slavery in 160 countries.
The closest challenger to North Korea in terms of the percentage of people in slavery is Eritrea. In North Korea, slightly more than one out of 10 people are slaves. In Eritrea, the percentage is slightly less than one out of 10. They both rank well ahead of third-placed Mauritania.
However, what does the high level of slavery have to do with famine and disease? The answer is that North Korea desperately needs people to work in the farms, fields and mines while others are too ill and sick to do the job. The solution for the otherwise-impoverished country is to force about 2.6 million people to work for nothing.
Those numbers include hundreds of thousands in prison, caught up in ordinary jails or in the gulag system reserved for those who will never go free. They will, instead, work until they drop. Others may toil outside the walls and wire fences of a gulag but will always have to work for nothing other than the rations that will keep them alive for another day's work.
North Korea's record of cruelty to its people is hardly news considering it's been a fact of North Korean life throughout the history of the Kim dynasty, beginning with the rise of Kim Jong-un's grandfather to power after his return to the North on a Soviet vessel in 1945.
Still, it comes as a bit of a shock to learn, in this Global Slavery Index, that North Korea ranks ahead of all the Arab states and Russia, which ranks in the top 10. Asia Press, run by Koreans in Japan and also South Korea, reports extensively on the mounting hunger.
"People are too weak to engage in wage labor," says the report, based on surreptitious conversations on mobile phones sneaked into the North from China. "People are dying."
Amid such suffering, North Korea has difficulty finding enough people to enslave. Slave workers cannot slave when they are too weak to pick up the tools needed to till the fields or hack coal out of mines.
In Washington, the State Department regularly excoriates the North for its human rights record, but some ask why we keep beseeching the North to enter "dialogue" while failing to make human rights an absolute condition for talking.
The answer might be that of course North Korea will just go on denying the grossest violations of human rights and will also never give up its nukes and missiles. Given the dismal failure of all previous efforts at getting the North to engage in reform, why not stop trying?
There may be no other choice, but in the end millions more North Koreans will suffer. Besides forcing 2.6 million people to work or endure some form of servitude, the North has about 1.2 million people in its armed forces. That means about 3.8 million North Koreans are basically working for nothing.
The report by Walk Free is not the only report showing how conditions in North Korea are worsening even as the penalties imposed by the regime are, if anything, harsher now than a few years ago. A State Department report on religious freedom tells us that increasing numbers of North Koreans face execution for the sin of having been caught with bibles in their possession.
We've been hearing for years that worship of Christianity is a capital offense regardless of the phony congregations that appear at the Catholic and Protestant show churches in Pyongyang at services staged for the benefit of foreigners.
In North Korea, the story only gets worse.
Donald Kirk (www.donaldkirk.com) writes from Seoul as well as Washington. He has visited North Korea nine times, most recently in 2012.
The Korea Times · June 1, 2023
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
| 
