In a new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, Kristina Hook presents mounting evidence that what Russia is doing in Ukraine meets international criteria for “genocide,” noting genocides historically “only end in total victories.” Maria Snegovaya finds Western sanctions are frustrating Russian consumers, and Maria Popova argues EU membership would benefit both Ukraine and the EU itself. New research links Vladimir Putin to the USSR-era official Mikhail Putin, writes Peter Rutland, underscoring his reliance on personal connections.

As Putin courts foreign opinion, a new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo by Paula Ganga argues the leaders of Hungary and Poland have used the war to address domestic difficulties. For Marlene Laruelle, Middle Eastern regional powers are distancing themselves from Western actors so the latter does not gain influence as Russia weakens. Elizabeth Wishnick writes the war has complicated Russian efforts to play a more decisive role in the Asia-Pacific. Also war-damaged are Russian efforts to prioritize relations with Africa, argues Pavel Baev after Foreign Minister Lavrov visited South Africa last month. And despite Putin’s attempts to justify invading Ukraine using UN Article 51, Mikhail Troitskiy contends, pressure could grow on the UN to strip Russia of its permanent Security Council membership.

Events

Join the Petrach and Illiberalism programs for a discussion with Ivan Gomza (Kyiv School of Economics) and Elizabeth Wishnick (CAN; Montclair State University) on “Populism, Vaccine Hesitancy, and Threats to Unconsolidated Democracy,” Wednesday, February 15, 2023, 10–11 AM EST.

New Voices on Eurasia with Volha Charnysh (MIT; Harvard University) on “The Determinants of Assistance to Ukrainian and Syrian Refugees,” Thursday, February 16, 2023, 4–5 PM EST.

Save the Date! PONARS Eurasia Spring Policy Conference, Friday, March 3, 2023, 9–5 PM EST.