Two new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memos examine the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war for Moscow’s southern neighbors. Anar Valiyev and Inara Yagubova conclude Azerbaijan has become a more reliable and lucrative energy partner for Europe despite ongoing Karabakh tensions, and Pauline Jones and Regina Smyth find weakening support for the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization in Central Asia.

As for Ukraine itself, a third new Policy Memo by Petro Burkovskyi and Olexiy Haran argues that Russian aggression will only grow if Western military aid draws down. Oleksandr Sushko’s visit to Bucha revealed rapid reconstruction, which he said must be careful to reinforce democratic principles. Shedding light on Ukraine’s resistance, Richard Arnold highlights the contentious legacy of the Zaporizhzhian Cossacks for both Ukraine and Russia. And Volodymyr Kulyk argues the idea of a “multiethnic Ukraine” is a myth, calling it instead “ethnoculturally diverse.”

Samuel Charap and Miranda Priebe argue for more proactive efforts to facilitate diplomacy between Russia and Ukraine. Putin has poorly managed not only the partial mass mobilization, as Nikolay Petrov writes, but Russian operations in Ukraine more generally, according to Kirill Rogov. Moscow’s dirty bomb rhetoric, says Yuri Zhukov, aims at undermining support for Ukraine, though if one is detonated, Pavel Podvig expects that its contamination would be no more than a few hundred yards in diameter and that nothing would change militarily or politically. Russia’s partnership with China has deterrence value that is enhanced by the relationship’s very ambiguity, writes Elizabeth Wishnick. As for what might be motivating Putin, Yoshiko Herrera finds reason to believe Putin admires right-wing philosopher Ivan Ilyin, while Peter Rutland points to the strategic importance of Crimea and its deep-water Sevastopol port.

On the Kremlin’s own domestic front, Gulnaz Sharafutdinova argues Russian national identity has to a large degree merged with Putin, helping explain his continued popular support, while Volodymyr Ishchenko finds the Kremlin may be boosting its legitimacy by redistributing wealth through the war effort. For Stanislav Tkachenko, however, Ukrainian victories in the field have caused Russian dissatisfaction to grow. Alexander Cooley and Brooke Harrington believe sanctions have succeeded at stigmatizing elites who are connected to Putin, with some oligarchs going to great lengths to distance themselves from the president. As for global public opinion, Pavel Baev writes Russia suffered a blow in the Global South when the UN condemned its annexation of four Ukrainian regions.

Events

Roundtable Discussion: “Cultural & Heritage-Led Postwar Reconstruction of Donbas” with Victoria Donovan, Iryna Sklokina, Stephen Crowley, and Sophie Lambroschini to mark the opening of the Elliott School exhibit “Labor, Exhaustion, and Success: Company Towns in Donbas,” Tuesday, November 8, 1:30–3 PM (EST).

New Voices on Eurasia with Guzel Garifullina: “People Behind the Scenes: The Face of the Russian State at the Subnational Level,” Wednesday, November 9, 2022, 4–5 PM (EST).