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Today we got a crop progress report out (as of Sunday).
- Winter Wheat Good/Excellent 45% (47% LW, 50% LY, 42% Avg)
- Soybeans 8% planted (2% LW, 7% LY, 5% Avg)
- Corn 12% planted (4% LW, 11% LY, 10% Avg)
The U.S. provided greater clarity on its shipbuilding port fee plan on Chinese vessels. The first phase will play out over the next 180 days, during which applicable port fees will be set at $0. Fees on vessel owners and operators of China based fleets will be based on net tonnage per U.S. voyage, increasing incrementally over the following years. Fees charged to operators of Chinese-built ships will be based on net tonnage or containers, increasing incrementally over the following years. In order to incentivize U.S.-built car carrier vessels, fees on foreign-built car carrier vessels will be based on their capacity. The second phase will not fully take place until three years from now. There will be limited restrictions on transporting liquified natural gas on foreign vessels that will increase incrementally over the next 22 years in order to stimulate U.S. shipbuilding for such. Bulk exports of coal and grain appear to be exempted from fees. The market rallied on this overnight, but failed to sustain that rally in today's quieter trade due to Easter Monday. This wasn't a bullish headline, but it wasn't bearish either, which I think the market was bracing for.
Wheat was the biggest loser today as funds are likely rebuilding their short positions. Ceasefire headlines from Ukraine over the weekend might have played a role as well, but we have not seen anything concrete yet. Today, Zelensky said, "Ukraine is waiting for a "clear answer" from Russia regarding its proposal for a 30-day ceasefire on attacks against civilian infrastructure". The proposed ban comes as U.S. President Donald Trump voices increasing confidence about his ability to announce a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The Trump administration's controversial plan allegedly includes provisions for legally recognizing Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and barring Ukraine from joining NATO.
Wheat also had good rains this weekend and more to follow for the dry plains. More moisture is in the 10-day forecast to aid the winter wheat crop
Funds were thought to have been all sellers.
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