With U.S. midterm elections coming tomorrow, Kristina Hook finds U.S. public opinion on Ukraine “remarkably bipartisan and durable,” meaning support for Ukraine will likely continue regardless of the results. Volodymyr Kulyk notes that Ukrainians remain defiant and committed to the war effort despite predictions of a difficult winter, and Jean-François Ratelle points out that partisan warfare in occupied territories has contributed to Ukraine’s battlefield success and will only grow in importance.
 
Could Vladimir Putin go nuclear? Despite Putin’s rhetoric and conspiratorial thinking, Pavel Podvig thinks Western leaders can steer him away from a nuclear option through nonthreatening messaging that could undermine his claims Russia is threatened, though adds that a nuclear strike would likely be ineffective. Polina Sinovets assesses the risk of nuclear escalation as “very high,” and predicts Putin will not stand down unless he can somehow declare the special operation a success. For Erica Marat, Putin is forcing his “Russian World” on Ukraine through genocide, starvation, and cultural erasure—just as the Soviet Union expanded a century ago. And seeing Russia take missiles from North Korea and other sources indicates to Mikhail Alexseev Moscow intends to prolong the war.
 
Kathryn Stoner argues that economic strains have put “Putin on a timeline” and sees three possible ends to the war: Putin’s ouster, his death, or a social revolution led by young Russians, or Putin’s death. For Pavel Baev, Putin’s speech at this year’s Valdai conference “brings Russia a step closer to defeat” by “recycling” tired tropes and slogans that months of fighting have proven false.
 
What might a future Russia look like? Samuel Greene argues Russia splintering apart would be problematic, but decentralizing might represent a peaceful way forward. Kirill Rogov does not expect an efficient transition to democracy, but says a step forward could be the restoration of a more pluralistic semi-democracy. In the short term, Nikolay Petrov interprets Putin’s October decrees introducing martial law in its occupied regions as another move toward replacing the constitution with a series of emergency measures.
 
And what will Russia’s relations with its neighbors look like in the future? A new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo by Eric McGlinchey and Shairbek Dzhuraev argues Russia’s influence has been eroding across Central Asia and that its war on Ukraine is exacerbating this process. Keith Darden similarly finds that Russia has lost its stabilizing role in both the South Caucasus and Central Asia.

Events

Roundtable Discussion: “Cultural & Heritage-Led Postwar Reconstruction of Donbas” with Victoria Donovan, Iryna Sklokina, Stephen Crowley, and Sophie Lambroschini to mark the opening of the Elliott School exhibit “Labor, Exhaustion, and Success: Company Towns in Donbas,” Tuesday, November 8, 1:30–3 PM (EST).

New Voices on Eurasia with Guzel Garifullina: “People Behind the Scenes: The Face of the Russian State at the Subnational Level,” Wednesday, November 9, 2022, 4–5 PM (EST).