While world attention focuses on the role of the Wagner group in Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, a new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo by Richard Arnold argues Russian Cossacks are not only nearly as numerous but likely to be more highly motivated. Maria Popova and Mikhail Alexseev conclude efforts to label Wagner “criminal” and “terrorist” could weaken it over time, and Pavel Baev suggests such harsher rhetoric could have factored into Gazprom Neft’s decision to form its own private military company. A second new PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, by Natalia Forrat, draws on evidence from Belarus to argue “Soviet” values can be repurposed to advance democracy in post-Soviet autocracies.

Interviewed on Ukrainian civil society, Oleksandr Sushko notes, “We have survived half the winter,” and Jordan Gans-Morse adds Ukrainians have adapted to their “new normal” while bracing for an intense spring. For Volodymyr Kulyk, Ukrainians have also shown that, despite being ethnically diverse, they identify themselves and their cities as Ukrainian. Volodymyr Dubovyk reports that Ukrainian students and teachers face struggles with Internet and electricity on top of more general threats to their safety and well-being.

According to Samuel Greene, one year of war has given Western leaders an “increasing sense of confidence” that they should continue supporting Ukraine with weapons. Samuel Charap observes that concerns about escalation have been most acute not when new weapons appear but instead when Moscow feels more vulnerable. As Swiss politicians debate weapons re-export to Ukraine, Mikhail Troitskiy sees Russia more dependent on Switzerland than vice-versa. At the same time, Susanne Wengle cautions that “as long as Russia can hold Ukrainian grain hostage, the Black Sea remains a blackmail opportunity for Moscow” in dealing with the West.

In a new PONARS Eurasia Commentary, Irina Busygina argues the war is first and foremost about Russia’s “primitive physical expansion.” Paul Goode’s RuMOR project finds Russian TV recently deemphasizing war narratives, while Konstantin Sonin argues Putin maintains the loyalty of the security apparatus by compensating them well in private wealth. Guzel Yusupova advises taking Russia’s newly released 2021 census results with a grain of salt, given Putin’s linking of diversity with danger and disunity.

Elsewhere, Helena Ivanov and Marlene Laruelle argue Hungary’s and Serbia’s pro-Russia stances are driven by polarization and general disappointment in the West, and Kornely Kakachia calls on the EU to acknowledge Georgia’s technical progress with positive signals so as to anchor Tbilisi in the EU’s geopolitical orbit and avoid legitimizing Euro-skepticism there. For Alexander Cooley, renewed great-power competition is presenting a challenge for American bases in regions like Central Asia, where Caress Schenk finds the war has complicated decision-making for labor migrants to Russia who could face conscription.

Events

New Voices on Eurasia with Volha Charnysh (MIT; Harvard University) on “The Determinants of Assistance to Ukrainian and Syrian Refugees,” Thursday, February 16, 2023, 4–5 PM EST.

Ukrainathon 2023, a 24-hour marathon event spotlighting Ukrainian resilience, Friday, February 24, 2023, 9 AM – Saturday, February 25, 2023, 9 AM EST.

Save the Date! PONARS Eurasia Spring Policy Conference, Friday, March 3, 2023, 9–5 PM EST.