Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners


Quotes of the Day:


Happy birthday to the U.S. Army, June 14, 1775


“Discipline is the soul of an Army. It makes small numbers formidable; procures success to all of the weak, and esteem to all.” 
– George Washington

“The soldier is the Army. No Army is better than its soldiers. The soldier is also a citizen. In fact, the highest obligation and privilege of citizenship is that of bearing arms for one’s country.” 
– George S Patton

"What can we do to support the troops? Give them a nation that is worthy of protection."
- Two-tour Army veteran who emailed me when I was writing an article for The Atlantic in 2007



1. N. Korea attempts to hack personal info through fake S. Korean website: NIS

2. North Korean hackers stole $100 million in recent cryptocurrency heist

3. S. Korea files damages suit against N. Korea over 2020 demolition of joint liaison office

4. Congressional commission holds emergency hearing, urges China to protect N. Korean defectors

5. National security adviser to visit Tokyo for trilateral talks with U.S., Japan

6. (LEAD) Three U.S.-led military commands in S. Korea hold 1st forum on women's roles for peace | Yonhap News Agency

7. Three U.S.-led military commands in S. Korea hold 1st forum on women's roles for peace

8. South Korea faces China down in diplomatic escalation

9. Days of strategic ambiguity are over: Rep. Shin Won-sik

10. U.S. Launches Quiet Diplomatic Push With Iran to Cool Tensions

11. Russia resumed shipments of oil to North Korea in December, UN data shows

12. Foreign ministry condemns N.Korea's missile provocations ahead of ARF

13. For Seoul, the Washington Declaration only provides a short-term fix to its long-term vulnerability

14. HRNK Testimony to the Congressional-Executive Commission on China

15. Fewer N. Korean patrol boats monitor area near Sinuiju than before pandemic

16. Professors at N. Korea’s top economics school dodge questions about socialist economy





1. N. Korea attempts to hack personal info through fake S. Korean website: NIS


We should have no doubt that the regime is using its all-purpose sword of cyber every way it can, from raising (stealing) funds to gathering information for future exploitation. And it is becoming more sophisticated every day.


N. Korea attempts to hack personal info through fake S. Korean website: NIS | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Boram · June 14, 2023

SEOUL, June 14 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has attempted to steal personal information by creating a fake website of South Korea's major online portal Naver, Seoul's spy agency said Wednesday.

The bogus site, www.naverportal.com, imitates the front page of Naver, www.naver.com, with its signature features of real-time news, advertisements and menu tabs, according to the National Intelligence Service (NIS).

The agency said it is one of the fresh approaches of North Korea's online hacking strategy to steal personal information from South Korean internet users.

In the past, North Korea had tried to take IDs and passwords by duplicating Naver's log-in page, it added.

The NIS said it has shared such details with the government and other relevant public agencies, including the Korea Internet and Security Agency, which has taken actions to block access to the fake site.

"We are tracking the activities of the hacking group in cooperation with foreign agencies as the server is located overseas," the NIS said.


This undated screenshot shows North Korea's fake website duplicating South Korea's online portal Naver. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

brk@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Boram · June 14, 2023




2. North Korean hackers stole $100 million in recent cryptocurrency heist


A billion here and a 100 million there. This money is adding up.



North Korean hackers stole $100 million in recent cryptocurrency heist

Jerusalem Post

North Korean hackers stole more than $100 million worth of digital currency in a recent heist affecting users of the Atomic Wallet service, cryptocurrency analytics firm Elliptic said Tuesday.

In a blog post, Elliptic said that more than 5,500 digital wallets were hit by the hackers, who the firm said were part of the North Korean cybercrime gang often called Lazarus.

North Korea's mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment, although Pyongyang has in the past denied carrying out digital thefts. Atomic Wallet did not immediately return messages seeking comment.

The company, which says it is based in Estonia, has previously said that it "received reports of wallets being compromised" and that it hired another cryptocurrency analytics firm, Chainalysis, to investigate the incident and track down stolen funds. Chainalysis declined comment.

A North Korean flag flutters at the propaganda village of Gijungdong in North Korea, in this picture taken near the truce village of Panmunjom inside the demilitarized zone (DMZ) separating the two Koreas, South Korea, July 19, 2022. (credit: REUTERS/KIM HONG-JI/POOL/FILE PHOTO)

Lazarus has been blamed for a series of brazen thefts targeting cryptocurrency users and organizations

Elliptic said the one that targeted users of Atomic Wallet was the biggest since the hackers allegedly stole around $100 million worth of digital coins from a tool developed by the US cryptocurrency firm Harmony last year.

Earlier this year, the United Nations reported that North Korea had stolen more cryptocurrency assets in 2022 than in any other year. International monitors have said that the stolen money has been pumped into North Korea's sanctioned nuclear and missile programs.

The FBI did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the latest theft. Estonian police officials did not immediately respond to an email sent after hours.

Jerusalem Post



3. S. Korea files damages suit against N. Korea over 2020 demolition of joint liaison office


What I think is important to remember is that this was a Kim Yo Jong extortion effort to drive the Moon administration and his party in the National Assembly to pass the anti-leaflet law. This is because the regime is deathly afraid of information getting to the Korean people in the north. Six months after the liaison building was destroyed the National Assembly passed the anti-leaflet law thus appeasing Kim Jong Un. And the question we should ask is if this law had any positive effect for South Korea? Did Kim Jong Un reciprocate and come to the negotiating table? Why would the ROK cut off information flow to the north when the Korean people in the north so desperately want and need it?



(LEAD) S. Korea files damages suit against N. Korea over 2020 demolition of joint liaison office | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · June 14, 2023

(ATTN: UPDATES with more details throughout; ADDS photo, byline)

By Kim Soo-yeon and Lee Minji

SEOUL, June 14 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's unification ministry said Wednesday it lodged a damages suit against North Korea over Pyongyang's 2020 demolition of an inter-Korean liaison office in the North's border city of Kaesong.

The government filed the lawsuit with the Seoul Central District Court against the Democratic People's Republic of Korea over 44.7 billion won (US$35 million) in damage incurred on the South's state properties, according to the ministry.

On June 16, 2020, the North blew up the joint liaison office in Kaesong in anger over Seoul's failure to stop North Korean defectors from sending anti-Pyongyang leaflets across the border.

It marked the first time that the South Korean government has sued North Korea.

The legal action came as the statute of limitations for damages to property related to the case is set to expire Friday. Under the civil law, the statute of limitations for the right to claim compensations for damages runs out three years after damage occurs.

The government said the suit is aimed at suspending the legally-set time limit for a damages claim and helping recoup the government's losses from the North's act.


A set of images captured from footage of North Korea's Central Television on June 17, 2020, shows the North's demolition of an inter-Korean liaison office in the North's border town of Kaesong the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

"North Korea's demolition of the liaison office in a violent manner is blatantly an illegal act. The North has also violated related inter-Korean agreements and fundamentally has undermines the basis of mutual respect and trust between the two Koreas," the ministry said.

The government said it will "sternly" respond to the North's infringement on property rights by the government and South Koreans.

The two Koreas launched the liaison office in September 2018 to facilitate inter-Korean exchange and cooperation amid a reconciliatory mood created by summit talks between their leaders in April that year.

The office suspended its operations in January 2020 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.

The ministry said the total amount of the damage covers 10.25 billion won for the liaison office and 34.45 billon won for an adjacent support facility, which was seriously damaged by the fallout of the demolition.

But critics said Seoul's legal actions against the North are largely symbolic as it is almost impossible for the South to receive compensation from the North.

There are no means for the government to force the North to provide compensations for the damages even if the South wins the lawsuit.

On concerns over whether the suit would be effective in making the North provide compensations, a ministry official told reporters the government will explore "feasible" means and that lodging the suit is a preemptive move for this goal.

The unification ministry has vowed to take legal actions against the North's infringement upon the property rights of South Koreans even if it takes time.

Such cases include Pyongyang's unauthorized use of South Korean-owned assets at a now-shuttered joint industrial complex in Kaesong and its demolition of South Korean-built facilities at the Mount Kumgang resort.


This photo, taken May 30, 2023, shows the exterior of a South Korean-built support facility in Kaesong Industrial Complex in North Korea's namesake border town, which was seriously damaged by the fallout of the North's demolition of an inter-Korean liaison office in June 2020. (Yonhap)

sooyeon@yna.co.kr

mlee@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · June 14, 2023



4. Congressional commission holds emergency hearing, urges China to protect N. Korean defectors


Glad to see the China commission focusing on Chinese complicity with human rights abuses in north Korea. Not in this article was a proposal by Ambassador Jung Hoon Lee from South Korea was a proposal to challenge the credentials of north Korea to have them suspended from the UN as was done with South Africa during the apartheid era.


Congressional commission holds emergency hearing, urges China to protect N. Korean defectors | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Duk-Kun Byun · June 14, 2023

By Byun Duk-kun

WASHINGTON, June 13 (Yonhap) -- The Congressional Executive Commission on China held an emergency hearing in Washington on Tuesday to urge China to fulfill its obligations as a United Nations member and protect North Korean asylum-seekers.

Members of the commission and key witnesses argued that nearly 2,000 North Korean defectors in China may face forced repatriation once North Korea reopens its border with China, which has been shut during the COVID-19 pandemic.

"Close to 2,000 North Korean refugees are reportedly held in detention centers near the China-North Korea border," Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ), chair of the executive commission on China, said.

"Once North Korea lifts its COVID-19-imposed border closure policy, these refugees will likely face forced repatriation, despite the Chinese government's international obligation to protect asylum-seekers," he added in his opening remarks.


Rep. Chris Smith (R-NJ) is seen speaking during a special hearing of the Congressional Executive Commission on China on North Korean refugees and the imminent danger of forced repatriation from China in Washington on June 13, 2023 in this captured image. (Yonhap)

The special hearing comes amid speculation that North Korea may lift its border closure imposed by the pandemic.

Pyongyang announced earlier this month it has adopted a new law designed to beef up inspections of export and import goods, further fueling the speculation that it may soon reopen its border with China.

"There are credible rumors that the North Korea-China border will reopen soon because North Korea, which is facing more starvation reminiscent of the Arduous March, must increase exports to, and imports from, China," noted Suzanne Scholte, president of Defense Forum Foundation, a nonprofit human rights activist group based in Virginia.

"The terrifying fear for all of us human rights advocates is that China's first export to North Korea will be the nearly 2,000 North Korean children, women and men currently detained, at least half of whom are believed to have been attempting to reach South Korea," Scholte added, according to her statement released by the commission.


Robert King, former U.S. special representative for North Korean human rights issues, is seen speaking during a hearing before the Congressional Executive Commission on China in Washington on June 13, 2023 in this captured image. (Yonhap)

Robert King, former U.S. special envoy for North Korean human rights issues, highlighted that the number of North Korean defectors reaching South Korea had averaged 1,100 a year between 2017 and 2019, but that the number had dropped drastically to 229 in 2020, and again to 63 in 2021 and 67 last year.

"Chinese government agencies carefully guard entrance to and exit from China. North Koreans who enter China illegally are apprehended and imprisoned in China. They are not permitted to leave China, and they are handed over to the government of North Korea," King told the hearing, according to his statement released by the commission.

"The United States and the international community must announce now that it will sanction any Chinese official involved in the forceful repatriation of any North Koreans back to North Korea, pointing out they will also be pursued in international court for being complicit in murder, if these fears are, indeed, realized," he added.

bdk@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Duk-Kun Byun · June 14, 2023



5. National security adviser to visit Tokyo for trilateral talks with U.S., Japan


National security adviser to visit Tokyo for trilateral talks with U.S., Japan

en.yna.co.kr

National security adviser to visit Tokyo for trilateral talks with U.S., Japan | Yonhap News Agency

All News 17:43 June 13, 2023

SEOUL, June 13 (Yonhap) — National Security Adviser Cho Tae-yong will visit Japan this week for trilateral talks with his U.S. and Japanese counterparts, the presidential office said Tuesday.

Cho will visit Tokyo on Wednesday and Thursday to meet with U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Japan’s National Security Secretariat Secretary General Takeo Akiba for “in-depth discussions” on North Korea, key regional and international issues, and the way forward for trilateral cooperation, it said in a statement.

Cho will also hold separate bilateral meetings with Sullivan and Akiba to discuss issues of mutual interest, the office said.

South Korea’s National Security Adviser Cho Tae-yong (R) holds talks with his Japanese counterpart, Takeo Akiba (L), during their meeting at the presidential office in Seoul on May 3, 2023, in this file photo released by the office. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

hague@yna.co.kr

(END)


en.yna.co.kr



6. (LEAD) Three U.S.-led military commands in S. Korea hold 1st forum on women's roles for peace

Excerpts:


"If 25.8 percent of your population has above average intelligence, and you only recruit males in the U.S., you have 43 million candidates. If you recruit both genders, you have 86 million candidates," he said. "For the Republic of Korea, your recruitment pool doubles from 6.5 million to almost 13 million."
...
In a meeting with reporters, Lt. Col. Charlynne McGinnis of the symposium's organizing team hammered home its main theme: women bring diversity to the military's planning and decision-making activities.
"What we're trying to get out of it is to a look at our operations' activities and investments from a gender perspective to have meaningful participation of females in the decision rooms, in the planning rooms in order to maintain peace and security here on the peninsula."
Currently led by Gen. Paul LaCamera, the three commands plan to host the WPS symposium on an annual basis, officials said.

(LEAD) Three U.S.-led military commands in S. Korea hold 1st forum on women's roles for peace | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · June 13, 2023

(ATTN: ADDS more info in lead, last para)

By Song Sang-ho

PYEONGTAEK, South Korea, June 13 (Yonhap) -- Three U.S.-led military commands in South Korea held the first-ever joint forum Tuesday on women's roles for security on the Korean Peninsula and beyond, highlighting their contributions of diversity, creativity and resilience to peace operations.

The South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command, the U.N. Command (UNC) and the U.S. Forces Korea hosted the inaugural Woman, Peace and Security (WPS) symposium at Camp Humphreys, the main U.S. military base in Pyeongtaek, 60 kilometers south of Seoul.

The three-day event kicked off under the three commands' WPS program to promote meaningful contributions of women in defense and security domains. The program is in line with U.N. Security Council Resolution 1325, which was adopted in 2000 to enhance the global commitment to ensuring women are more systematically integrated into peace operations.

In his opening remarks, UNC Deputy Commander British Lt. Gen. Andrew Harrison emphasized the value of the council's resolution, which he said has made the role of women "central."

"If you want to know the value of it, compare those factors that exist north of the border here and compare to what's going on in the South," Harrison said.

"Incorporating diverse perspectives into our plans and our organizations makes us better equipped to confront our competitors. It makes us more likely to be able to defeat our adversaries, and of course, in the end, it'll save lives," he added.


UNC Deputy Commander British Lt. Gen. Andrew Harrison speaks during the Woman, Peace and Security (WPS) symposium at Camp Humphreys, the main U.S. military installation in Pyeongtaek, 60 kilometers south of Seoul, on June 13, 2023, in this photo released by the UNC public affairs office. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

Harrison shared the history of his female family members having served in the defense sector, describing them as "great role models" in his "personal WPS journey." His mother was a former defense official, while his wife was his fellow soldier. His daughter was commissioned as an Army officer last year.

"Resolution 1325 impacts all across our society representation in the armed forces, in politics and commercial boardrooms, etc, but we're not there yet," he said, noting "evidence" showing that "societies that empower women become more prosperous and more secure."

At the symposium, participants explored the benefits of female engagement for operational effectiveness, peace negotiations, and other efforts to foster regional and global security.

William A. Wieninger, professor at the Hawaii-based Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (DKI APCSS), gave a mathematical image underlining the importance of leveraging all untapped human resources.

"If 25.8 percent of your population has above average intelligence, and you only recruit males in the U.S., you have 43 million candidates. If you recruit both genders, you have 86 million candidates," he said. "For the Republic of Korea, your recruitment pool doubles from 6.5 million to almost 13 million."


William A. Wieninger, a professor at the Hawaii-based Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (DKI APCSS), speaks during the Woman, Peace and Security (WPS) symposium at Camp Humphreys, the main U.S. military installation in Pyeongtaek, 60 kilometers south of Seoul, on June 13, 2023. (Yonhap)

The scholar also drew a comparison between the now-defunct multinational talks on North Korea's denuclearization -- led by male representatives -- and the nuclear deal aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program, as he indicated that increasing the role of women in peace arrangements makes them "more durable and resilient."

"The Iran nuclear talks, on the other hand, had senior females in both the U.S. and the European Union," he said. "Although the subsequent U.S. administration pulled out, the agreement still stands between Iran and the EU."

Miemie Winn Byrd, another professor at the DKI APCSS, delved into the role of Myanmarese women in their resistance against military leaders, whom she depicted as being "at the tip of the spear to maintain democracy" in a country at the doorstep of China.

"Women bring different type of tactics to the fight because the military has firepower, but women understand people power and smart power," she said. "I hope that this shows you ... by utilizing that blind spot -- half of the population -- how you can go about making a difference against our opponents."


Miemie Winn Byrd, a professor at the Hawaii-based Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (DKI APCSS), speaks during the Woman, Peace and Security (WPS) symposium at Camp Humphreys, the main U.S. military installation in Pyeongtaek, 65 kilometers south of Seoul, on June 13, 2023. (Yonhap)

In a meeting with reporters, Lt. Col. Charlynne McGinnis of the symposium's organizing team hammered home its main theme: women bring diversity to the military's planning and decision-making activities.

"What we're trying to get out of it is to a look at our operations' activities and investments from a gender perspective to have meaningful participation of females in the decision rooms, in the planning rooms in order to maintain peace and security here on the peninsula."

Currently led by Gen. Paul LaCamera, the three commands plan to host the WPS symposium on an annual basis, officials said.

sshluck@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · June 13, 2023



7. Three U.S.-led military commands in S. Korea hold 1st forum on women's roles for peace


Excerpts:


"If 25.8 percent of your population has above average intelligence, and you only recruit males in the U.S., you have 43 million candidates. If you recruit both genders, you have 86 million candidates," he said. "For the Republic of Korea, your recruitment pool doubles from 6.5 million to almost 13 million."
...
In a meeting with reporters, Lt. Col. Charlynne McGinnis of the symposium's organizing team hammered home its main theme: women bring diversity to the military's planning and decision-making activities.
"What we're trying to get out of it is to a look at our operations' activities and investments from a gender perspective to have meaningful participation of females in the decision rooms, in the planning rooms in order to maintain peace and security here on the peninsula."
Currently led by Gen. Paul LaCamera, the three commands plan to host the WPS symposium on an annual basis, officials said.

(LEAD) Three U.S.-led military commands in S. Korea hold 1st forum on women's roles for peace | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · June 13, 2023

(ATTN: ADDS more info in lead, last para)

By Song Sang-ho

PYEONGTAEK, South Korea, June 13 (Yonhap) -- Three U.S.-led military commands in South Korea held the first-ever joint forum Tuesday on women's roles for security on the Korean Peninsula and beyond, highlighting their contributions of diversity, creativity and resilience to peace operations.

The South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command, the U.N. Command (UNC) and the U.S. Forces Korea hosted the inaugural Woman, Peace and Security (WPS) symposium at Camp Humphreys, the main U.S. military base in Pyeongtaek, 60 kilometers south of Seoul.

The three-day event kicked off under the three commands' WPS program to promote meaningful contributions of women in defense and security domains. The program is in line with U.N. Security Council Resolution 1325, which was adopted in 2000 to enhance the global commitment to ensuring women are more systematically integrated into peace operations.

In his opening remarks, UNC Deputy Commander British Lt. Gen. Andrew Harrison emphasized the value of the council's resolution, which he said has made the role of women "central."

"If you want to know the value of it, compare those factors that exist north of the border here and compare to what's going on in the South," Harrison said.

"Incorporating diverse perspectives into our plans and our organizations makes us better equipped to confront our competitors. It makes us more likely to be able to defeat our adversaries, and of course, in the end, it'll save lives," he added.


UNC Deputy Commander British Lt. Gen. Andrew Harrison speaks during the Woman, Peace and Security (WPS) symposium at Camp Humphreys, the main U.S. military installation in Pyeongtaek, 60 kilometers south of Seoul, on June 13, 2023, in this photo released by the UNC public affairs office. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

Harrison shared the history of his female family members having served in the defense sector, describing them as "great role models" in his "personal WPS journey." His mother was a former defense official, while his wife was his fellow soldier. His daughter was commissioned as an Army officer last year.

"Resolution 1325 impacts all across our society representation in the armed forces, in politics and commercial boardrooms, etc, but we're not there yet," he said, noting "evidence" showing that "societies that empower women become more prosperous and more secure."

At the symposium, participants explored the benefits of female engagement for operational effectiveness, peace negotiations, and other efforts to foster regional and global security.

William A. Wieninger, professor at the Hawaii-based Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (DKI APCSS), gave a mathematical image underlining the importance of leveraging all untapped human resources.

"If 25.8 percent of your population has above average intelligence, and you only recruit males in the U.S., you have 43 million candidates. If you recruit both genders, you have 86 million candidates," he said. "For the Republic of Korea, your recruitment pool doubles from 6.5 million to almost 13 million."


William A. Wieninger, a professor at the Hawaii-based Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (DKI APCSS), speaks during the Woman, Peace and Security (WPS) symposium at Camp Humphreys, the main U.S. military installation in Pyeongtaek, 60 kilometers south of Seoul, on June 13, 2023. (Yonhap)

The scholar also drew a comparison between the now-defunct multinational talks on North Korea's denuclearization -- led by male representatives -- and the nuclear deal aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program, as he indicated that increasing the role of women in peace arrangements makes them "more durable and resilient."

"The Iran nuclear talks, on the other hand, had senior females in both the U.S. and the European Union," he said. "Although the subsequent U.S. administration pulled out, the agreement still stands between Iran and the EU."

Miemie Winn Byrd, another professor at the DKI APCSS, delved into the role of Myanmarese women in their resistance against military leaders, whom she depicted as being "at the tip of the spear to maintain democracy" in a country at the doorstep of China.

"Women bring different type of tactics to the fight because the military has firepower, but women understand people power and smart power," she said. "I hope that this shows you ... by utilizing that blind spot -- half of the population -- how you can go about making a difference against our opponents."


Miemie Winn Byrd, a professor at the Hawaii-based Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (DKI APCSS), speaks during the Woman, Peace and Security (WPS) symposium at Camp Humphreys, the main U.S. military installation in Pyeongtaek, 65 kilometers south of Seoul, on June 13, 2023. (Yonhap)

In a meeting with reporters, Lt. Col. Charlynne McGinnis of the symposium's organizing team hammered home its main theme: women bring diversity to the military's planning and decision-making activities.

"What we're trying to get out of it is to a look at our operations' activities and investments from a gender perspective to have meaningful participation of females in the decision rooms, in the planning rooms in order to maintain peace and security here on the peninsula."

Currently led by Gen. Paul LaCamera, the three commands plan to host the WPS symposium on an annual basis, officials said.

sshluck@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · June 13, 2023



8. South Korea faces China down in diplomatic escalation


The ROK's firm and practical diplomacy: Stand up to China.


South Korea faces China down in diplomatic escalation

Chinese envoy's remarks ignite bilateral tit-for-tat

washingtontimes.com · by Andrew Salmon


By - The Washington Times - Tuesday, June 13, 2023

SEOULSouth Korea — Following undiplomatic remarks delivered by China‘s ambassador to Korea, both sides are escalating — and Washington is backing its ally in Seoul.

The brouhaha suggests South Korea — which is, in the words of President Yoon Suk Yeol administration, a “globally pivotal state” — is increasingly willing to stand up to Beijing despite its deep economic ties to the Communist giant.

Last Thursday, Chinese ambassador to Korea Xing Haiming invited leftist opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, to a dinner. During it, he told Mr. Lee that Seoul would be mistaken to side with the U.S. against China. Mr. Xing also suggested the two nations join forces to resist Japan’s plan to dump irradiated, but treated, water from a stricken nuclear plant into the Pacific.

Unusually, the Chinese embassy publicized Mr. Xing’s comments in a press release.

The conservative Yoon administration has sought to move ever closer to the U.S. and rebuild long-damaged ties with Japan, a fact that Mr. Xing most certainly understands.

Though some Chinese diplomats have earned the sobriquet “wolf warriors” for their vocal advocacy of Beijing’s interests, Mr. Xing is a peninsula expert who has studied in North Korea, speaks fluent Korean, and is currently serving his third term as a diplomat in the Chinese embassy in Seoul.

SEE ALSO: Seoul raps Chinese ‘wolf warrior’ over aggressive rhetoric

He has ignited a spiraling war of words.


Back and forth

On Friday, South Korea responded. South Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Chang Ho-jin summoned Mr. Xing to lodge an official protect over his “unreasonable and provocative” remarks.

On Saturday, China returned fire.

Beijing’s Assistant Foreign Minister Nong Rong called in South Korean Ambassador Chung Jae-ho, and told him it was Mr. Xing’s duty to meet with different persons in South Korea, while hoping that Seoul would reflect on bilateral relations and work with China to promote healthy and stable ties.

On Monday, it was South Korea‘s turn once again to keep the dispute roiling.

A South Korean presidential official told local media that poor diplomacy by an ambassador could damage bilateral relations. Separately, Prime Minister Han Duck-so told lawmakers during a session at the National Assembly that “the actions of the Chinese ambassador were highly inappropriate.”

The Biden administration also stepped into the fray this week.

White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters the Chinese remarks represented “some sort of pressure tactic.”

South Korea is a sovereign, independent nation, a terrific ally and a great friend — not just in the region, but around the world,” Mr. Kirby said. “And they have every right to make the kinds of foreign policy decisions they deem are appropriate.”

Seoul upped the pressure again on Tuesday.

A presidential official told local media, “We’re waiting for the Chinese side to carefully consider this problem and to take the appropriate measure.”

The same media reported that Mr. Yoon himself had said, “Our people are offended by Ambassador Xing’s inappropriate behavior.”

China‘s aggressive tack is backfiring badly, according to pundits here.

“The basic duty of diplomats is to protect their home country’s interest, but an ambassador is also responsible for maintaining good relations with the host country,” wrote the center-right Joongang Ilbo, South Korea‘s second-largest newspaper. “Xing’s words and actions show that he completely gave up diplomatic efforts to open the hearts of the people in the host country.”

Even the left-leaning Hankyoreh newspaper — a staunch critic of the Yoon administration — was critical.

“Xing’s remarks were unusually high-handed. … They sounded like a threat of Chinese retaliation if South Korea does not take Beijing’s side,” the paper editorialized. “It also goes against diplomatic practice to buttonhole an opposition party leader… [and to] subject him to a more than 10-minute open denunciation of the host country’s government.”

Old relations, new relations, strained relations

Historically, China played a dominant role in East Asia, while also transferring its culture — script, governance systems, agricultural systems, cuisine, religions, medicine — to lesser states on its periphery. Today, relations are complex.

China sided with North Korea in the Korean War, and it was not until 1992 that Seoul opened diplomatic relations with Beijing. Commerce flourished. China is today South Korea’s biggest trade partner, as well as a key interlocutor with North Korea.

But tensions simmer. In 2017, U.S. troops in South Korea deployed a U.S.-supplied THAAD anti-missile system. Beijing, angry that its radars could snoop on China, retaliated against Seoul. Sales of South Korean products and K-pop were hit, lucrative Chinese group tours dried up and a South Korean conglomerate exited China’s retail sector.

The previous administration of President Moon Jae-in sought to placate China. The Yoon administration says it wants to pursue diplomatic self-confidence while tightening ties with Tokyo and Washington.

Surveys taken over the last two years find that South Koreans – increasingly angry about issues such as the THAAD reaction, Chinese air pollution and Beijing’s rising assertiveness, exemplified by Mr. Xing’s remarks – now like China less than Japan, the country’s onetime occupier.

• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.

Copyright © 2023 The Washington Times, LLC. Click here for reprint permission.

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9. Days of strategic ambiguity are over: Rep. Shin Won-sik




[Up close in Yeouido] Days of strategic ambiguity are over: Rep. Shin Won-sik

Biden “right” to take U-turn from Trump’s “America First” foreign policy, says general-turned-lawmaker

koreaherald.com · by Kim Arin · June 14, 2023

Rep. Shin Won-sik of the ruling People Power Party speaks to The Korea Herald at his office at the National Assembly building in Yeouido, central Seoul. (Im Se-jun/The Korea Herald)

In this series, The Korea Herald sits down with members of the 21st National Assembly to discuss top political events and issues affecting Seoul and beyond from South Korea’s heart of power in Yeouido. -- Ed.

The time is ripe for South Korea to join its allies in sending defense aid to Ukraine, according to Army general-turned-lawmaker Rep. Shin Won-sik.

In an interview with The Korea Herald, the first-time lawmaker of the ruling People Power Party and the National Assembly national defense committee’s executive secretary said South Korea needs to rethink its policy of not providing lethal weapons to war-torn Ukraine.

“The days of strategic ambiguity are over,” he said, making the case for a fuller commitment to supporting Ukraine. “Now is the time to take a stand.”

South Korea has so far limited its assistance to Ukraine to humanitarian and nonlethal aid.

“As a member of the ruling party, I respect our government’s stance. As an individual lawmaker and a lawmaking institution, I am for full-fledged support to Ukraine,” he said.

On sticking to “nonlethal” forms of support, he said the distinction was “rather absurd.” “When you say lethal, it sounds very sensational. But all weapons are made to kill.”

The war in Ukraine was an assault on the post-World War II international norm of not using military force or intimidation to change the peacefully established order, he said. The kind of shifts in the international system that are being reinforced by the Kremlin would be especially threatening to South Korea.

“There are three nations that are trying to subvert the rule-based order of peace and stability, and they are Russia, China and North Korea. We sit right on the front lines.”

He said the same countries that came to South Korea’s help during the Korean War -- mostly the West plus the British Commonwealth, supported by the United Nations -- were now supplying Ukraine with weapons.

“It’s not like siding with Ukraine isn’t costing these countries economically. Some of them are dependent on Russia for their energy needs, and have trade relations,” he said. “Think about the message we’d be sending if we were to not take part in the move to condemn and hold Russia accountable for its invasion of Ukraine.”

Shin says South Korea “must choose a side” in the new Cold War. (Im Se-jun/The Korea Herald)

Shin said if defending the rule-based order were not reason enough to sway opponents at home, mainly the Democratic Party of Korea and the rest of the liberal establishment, South Korea should see Ukraine aid as an investment for possible future contingencies.

What is happening in Ukraine could be South Korea’s problem as much as it is Ukraine’s problem now, “for us more so than any other nation in the world,” he said. South Korea, along with Taiwan, is one of the countries at highest risk of finding itself in Ukraine’s shoes.

“South Korea not fully committing to the collective defense mission may erode willingness of the free world to support us, which would in turn hurt deterrence against North Korea.”

He said it is not South Korea and its allies’ capability to strike back that North Korea is skeptical about, but their willingness to do so.

“Soon, like how the events leading up to the Korean War unfolded, the choice may not be ours to make,” he said.

The post-Cold War period that lasted for about three decades after the Soviet Union’s fall in the early 1990s did not call for siding explicitly with one bloc. Neutrality was a diplomatic virtue, he said. The growing demand to be clear on where one aligns in the past 10 years has peaked with the war in Ukraine, opening up a new phase that Shin calls the “new cold war.”

In that sense, US President Joe Biden making a U-turn from his predecessor Donald Trump’s “America first” diplomacy and restoring the focus on alliances was “no doubt the wiser approach” and “the right thing to do,” he said.

Trump “lost sight of the bigger picture” in undermining NATO and jeopardizing ties with other allies when, for the US too, the costs of one-on-one competition with China far outweigh the cost of having allies, he said.

“Personally, I think Mr. Trump was a politician who put his personal political objectives ahead of the US strategic relationship,” he said. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s focus on trilateral security cooperation with the US and Japan was forming a “synergy” with Biden bringing back focus on alliances, he added.

When Yoon and Biden agreed to the Washington Declaration over their summit meeting in April, it signaled to North Korea that its strategic calculus on nuclear weapons would have to change completely, he said. The declaration amounted to a bilateral nuclear cooperation that elevated the US extended deterrence to an “unprecedented level.”

“For the last 30 years, the price North Korea had to pay for taking up nuclear arms was meager compared to what it could gain from doing so,” he said. And China and Russia, he added, have done “nothing to mitigate North Korea’s military adventurism.”

“For the three generations of the Kim dynasty North Korea was occupied with how to create nuclear weapons. The question facing them now is how to handle the nuclear weapons in their hands,” he said.

“North Korea has long used its nuclear program as a negotiating chip -- but now it’s beginning to learn that its risky dabbling is backfiring with a stronger South Korea-US alliance, more powerful extended deterrence commitments from the US.”

He said North Korea, if it were being strategic, “wouldn’t risk carrying out a seventh nuclear test” with security arrangements of the status quo.

“There is nothing North Korea could gain from conducting a nuclear weapons test, strategically speaking. From a technical standpoint, there’s a debate over whether it needs another test after the last one.”

He said that it was also in the allies’ interest to maintain the security of South Korea, which is at the forefront of the tumult. “As much as we need cooperation from our allies, we are a key security pillar and should not be let to falter.”



By Kim Arin (arin@heraldcorp.com)

koreaherald.com · by Kim Arin · June 14, 2023



10. U.S. Launches Quiet Diplomatic Push With Iran to Cool Tensions




U.S. Launches Quiet Diplomatic Push With Iran to Cool Tensions

Talks in Oman seek release of American prisoners as Iran wants billions of dollars trapped overseas

By Laurence Norman and David S. Cloud

June 14, 2023 7:45 am ET


https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-launches-quiet-diplomatic-push-with-iran-to-cool-tensions-2f45af3?mod=hp_lead_pos1



WASHINGTON—The Biden administration has quietly restarted talks with Iran in a bid to win the release of American prisoners held by Tehran and curb the country’s growing nuclear program, people close to the discussions said.

As contacts between the two sides resumed, Washington also approved 2.5 billion euros, equivalent to $2.7 billion, in payments by the Iraqi government for Iranian electricity and gas imports, U.S. and Iraqi officials said. The money had been frozen by U.S. economic sanctions.


U.S. officials described the transfer of funds as routine and unrelated to the discussions. Similar funds have been released in the past, though this time it was done in euros and not local currencies.

After discussions started between senior U.S. and Iranian officials in New York in December, White House officials have traveled to Oman at least three times for further indirect contacts, the people said. Omani officials passed messages between the two sides.

President Biden took office pledging to revive an international nuclear pact that imposed limits on Iran’s nuclear programs in exchange for the removal of economic sanctions, before declaring in November that such a deal was dead. The U.S. withdrew from the pact under former President Donald Trump.

The latest attempt at diplomacy represents a delicate political balancing act for Biden and is focused on cooling tensions, which have soared this year as Iran has provided drones to Russia for its war in Ukraine, pushed ahead with uranium enrichment and seized oil tankers in the Persian Gulf.

In exchange for a prisoner release and limits on nuclear work, Tehran is seeking billions of dollars in Iranian energy revenue trapped abroad by U.S. sanctions. Iranian officials have repeatedly tied the possible release of prisoners to winning access to $7 billion in Iranian funds held in South Korea and demanded access to billions of dollars held in Iraq for deliveries of gas and oil.


The nuclear water reactor at a facility near Arak, Iran. PHOTO: SALAMPIX/ZUMA PRESS

South Korean former government officials with knowledge of the matter said discussions are continuing with Iran and the U.S. over the release of that money for humanitarian purposes.

The Biden administration is eager to avoid catapulting negotiations with Iran to the top of the political agenda as the presidential campaign approaches. Any formal agreement or even a less formal understanding, which appears far more likely, could force a review in Congress, where Republicans and some Democrats strongly oppose a nuclear deal with Iran.

Even an informal understanding with Iran making U.S. sanctions concessions for limited, reversible steps by Iran to curtail its nuclear program will face criticism, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying Tuesday his government won’t be bound by any such deal. It is also a departure from the so-called stronger and longer nuclear deal Biden said he would negotiate.

Since the U.S. reimposed sanctions in 2018, Iran has expanded its nuclear work and has been accumulating 60%-enriched uranium for over two years, the only non-nuclear-weapons state to do so. Iran already has enough 60% material for at least two nuclear weapons and can convert it into weapons-grade enriched uranium in a matter of days, U.S. officials say.

Western officials worry that a move by Iran to produce weapons-grade fissile material would trigger a diplomatic crisis. Israel has said that level of nuclear production could trigger a military strike.

“Certain actions by Iran could lead us to a very, dangerous situation, Iran and the world knows that, so we’ve been clear they should avoid escalatory actions to prevent a crisis,” said a senior Biden administration official. “It is no secret that we have also been concurrently urging Iran to take a de-escalatory path after several months of negative developments.”

Iran’s Nuclear Program: What We Know About Tehran’s Key Sites

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While Iran says it isn’t trying to build nuclear weapons, a look at its key facilities suggests it could develop the technology to make them. WSJ breaks down Tehran’s capabilities as it hits new milestones in uranium enrichment and limits access to inspectors. Photo illustration: George Downs

There have been no formal negotiations on the nuclear deal since last summer, when Iran walked away from a proposed deal. Amid a crackdown on protests in Tehran and escalating Iranian support for Russia in its war with Ukraine, contacts between Washington and Iran have dwindled.

In late 2022, U.S. Iran envoy Robert Malley met in New York with Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, beginning a series of gatherings that continued through April, according to people briefed on the talks.

In February, March and May in the Omani capital Muscat, Omani officials shuttled messages between the White House’s Middle East senior adviser Brett McGurk and Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri-Kani, in so-called proximity talks, according to people involved in or briefed on the negotiations. Malley was also in Oman in February and March.

McGurk also traveled to Oman in late May, according to diplomats, shortly before Omani ruler Sultan Haitham bin Tarik traveled to Tehran to meet Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Bagheri-Kani attended that May 28 Iran-Oman meeting. Axios reported the May proximity talks in Oman last week.

Qatar has also been mediating in discussions on U.S. prisoners, people familiar with the talks say.

The Iraqi payments approved by the Biden administration since last December partially settle a longstanding debt for gas and electricity sold to Baghdad by Iran that has been unpaid due to sanctions, said senior Iraqi officials.

The U.S. insisted to Iraq that the money be transferred directly to Iranian creditors in euros, a procedure aimed at ensuring Iran didn’t access U.S. currency and divert the funds for illicit purposes, the Iraqi officials said.


Robert Malley, the Biden administration’s special envoy for Iran. PHOTO: BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

The payments include €886 million to Turkmenistan, partially repaying a debt owed by Iran, the officials said. Baghdad also paid €80 million on Iran’s behalf to the Islamic Development Bank, a multilateral institution based in Saudi Arabia that includes Tehran as its third-largest shareholder.

Another €120 million went to Saudi Arabia to defray costs for Iranian Muslims who travel to Mecca for the Hajj pilgrimage. Iraq also recently paid for Iranian imports of food and medicine, the officials said.

“These are humanitarian and similar routine transactions consistent with longstanding U.S. regulations and practice,” a National Security Council spokesman said in a statement.

“While the U.S. has given similar permissions before, it’s hard to separate these latest decisions from a context in which Washington is looking to de-escalate tensions across the board with Iran,” said Henry Rome, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, a think tank.

Speaking on Sunday at an exhibition of Iran’s nuclear advances, Khamenei seemed to leave the door ajar for some kind of accommodation with Washington that falls short of the full restoration of the 2015 agreement.

While insisting that Iran’s current nuclear infrastructure mustn’t be removed under an agreement, he said, “You may want to make some deals in some areas. It is not a problem.”

Iran has hinted at de-escalation in some areas, including taking modest steps to cooperate with the U.N. atomic agency.


Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, right, with Omani ruler Sultan Haitham bin Tarik in Tehran earlier this year. PHOTO: HOTLI SIMANJUNTAK/IRANIAN SUPREM/SHUTTERSTOCK

And while Biden administration officials insist they are implementing U.S. sanctions, Iranian oil sales continue to grow, with Iran reported to have exported as much as 1.55 million barrels a day in May, according to the United Against Nuclear Iran’s tanker tracker.

On Monday, Bagheri-Kani met in Abu Dhabi with senior officials from Britain, France and Germany, the so–called E3 countries that helped negotiate the nuclear deal.

“The primary aim of the engagement in recent weeks, whether by the U.S. or E3 is preventing the situation from deteriorating further,” said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at Crisis Group, a Washington-based conflict-resolution organization. “If that brings some measure of respite on the nuclear front or other files, it could open the door to further discussions.”

—Michael R. Gordon, Summer Said and Dasl Yoon contributed to this article.

Write to Laurence Norman at laurence.norman@wsj.com and David S. Cloud at david.cloud@wsj.com


11. Russia resumed shipments of oil to North Korea in December, UN data shows


Excerpt:


Experts told Radio Free Asia that the resumption likely coincided with Pyongyang supplying Moscow with weapons for use in its war against Ukraine.


Russia resumed shipments of oil to North Korea in December, UN data shows

Experts say the oil may have been in exchange for weapons that Russia could use in the Ukraine war.

By Cho Jinwoo for RFA Korean

2023.06.13

rfa.org

Russia has resumed supplying oil to North Korea after a 27-month hiatus due to international sanctions, data from the United Nations showed.

Experts told Radio Free Asia that the resumption likely coincided with Pyongyang supplying Moscow with weapons for use in its war against Ukraine.

The UN Security Council Sanctions Committee on North Korea on June 9 published data on Russian oil shipments to North Korea, which indicated that in December 2022, Moscow supplied 3,225 barrels of refined oil to Pyongyang.

In January, the total number of barrels sharply increased to 44,655, then sharply decreased over the next few months, with only 3,612 barrels sent in April.

It was the first time that Russia sent oil to North Korea since August 2020, when Pyongyang suspended international trade to counter the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.

Oil tankers are stationed at the Okeanskaya railway station ahead of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s arrival for a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the border at Russia's far East, April 23, 2019. Credit: Alexander Khitrov/AP

In September 2022, Georgiy Zinoviev, head of the Russian foreign ministry's First Asia Department, said that Russia would be willing to resume trading oil products with North Korea if Pyongyang would lift the ban.

North Korea’s opening gives Russia a much needed market for oil at a time when its main markets in the European Union enacted a partial embargo on Russian oil due to the war in Ukraine.

Through April, Russia has sent nearly 99,473 barrels of oil to North Korea, which is around 19% of the amount permitted by U.N. sanctions meant to deprive Pyongyang of resources that could be funneled into its nuclear and missile programs.

Oil for weapons

Two U.S.-based experts said that it was likely that the refined oil exports to North Korea resumed in return for supplying weapons to Russia, which is at war with Ukraine.

In June, a State Department spokesperson told Reuters news service that the U.S. was able to confirm that North Korea had sent arms, including infantry rockets and missiles to a Russian-backed mercenary group in November 2022, despite denials from Pyongyang.

“I would guess that [the oil shipments] may be Russia fulfilling its end of the deal in exchange for North Korea providing weapons and lethal aid to the Russian troops in the ongoing war with Ukraine,” Soo Kim, policy practice area lead at Virginia-based LMI Consulting and a former CIA analyst, told RFA’s Korean Service.

“At this stage, Russia is in need of military support to offset its deficiencies in its battle against Ukraine,” said Kim. “North Korea is willing to provide lethal aid probably because [North Korean leader] Kim [Jong Un] can receive energy and food assistance in exchange.”

She also said that Pyongyang and Moscow working closely together could undermine U.S. interests.

North Korean soldiers participate in a military parade to mark the 65th anniversary of the country's founding in Pyongyang, North Korea. Credit: Image grab/KRT via AP

Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution also told RFA that refined oil may be a payment for weapons aided by North Korea.

In addition to oil, Russia is exporting more than 1,000 tons of wheat flour to North Korea, according to a recent press release from Moscow’s Federal Veterinary Customs Agency.

North Korea’s state-run Rodong Sinmun newspaper reported Monday that Kim Jong Un sent a congratulatory message to Russian President Vladimir Putin, affirming his willingness to increase close strategic cooperation between the two countries.

Translated by Leejin J. Chung. Edited by Eugene Whong.

rfa.org



12. Foreign ministry condemns N.Korea's missile provocations ahead of ARF




Foreign ministry condemns N.Korea's missile provocations ahead of ARF

koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · June 14, 2023

The foreign ministry denounced Wednesday North Korea's recent series of missile provocations at a virtual senior officials' meeting ahead of an annual multilateral forum involving Pyongyang slated for next month.

The ministry said it stated its position during the online preparatory meeting of senior government officials for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Regional Forum, due to take place in Indonesia in July.

Deputy Foreign Minister Choi Young-sam and Lee Jang-keun, the ambassador to ASEAN, attended the virtual conference, the ministry said.

An Kwang-il, the North's ambassador to Indonesia, was present at the conference.

The ARF is a rare multilateral forum involving Pyongyang, and it brings together top diplomats of 27 countries, including the United States, China, Japan and the European Union.

During the virtual meeting, Seoul stressed the importance of the international community to send a clear and united message to the North that any missile provocations, including the so-called "test launch of a satellite," will not be accepted, the ministry said.

The ministry also asked each country to pay attention and work together to block the North from raising funds for nuclear and missile development to escalate the tensions, saying the North is abusing the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercise as an excuse for provocation.

At the conference, North Korea apparently repeated its position, blasting the hostile policy toward Pyongyang and justifying its right to use the space.

The participants also discussed current issues regarding the South China Sea and Russia's war on Ukraine, among others.

The meeting also touched on efforts to cooperate on the planned foreign ministers' meeting for the ARF, the ministry said.

koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · June 14, 2023



13. For Seoul, the Washington Declaration only provides a short-term fix to its long-term vulnerability



Excerpt:


The declaration thus represents a shallow treaty with limited effects on the status quo. It provides a temporary fix for both Yoon and Biden to alleviate Seoul’s security concerns without resorting to indigenous nuclearization but does not produce the second-strike capability that South Korea ultimately needs to ensure its long-term security. The continued expansion of Pyeongyang’s nuclear arsenal will inevitably deteriorate the reliability of U.S. security commitments and reinvigorate calls for a South Korean nuclear program. As long as the Kim regime remains nuclear-armed and hostile, it seems that procuring nuclear weapons under the direct control of South Korean forces is the only option.


Opinion | For Seoul, the Washington Declaration only provides a short-term fix to its long-term vulnerability - The Taiwan Times

thetaiwantimes.com · by Han Li Seon · June 13, 2023

In recent years, South Korea has faced rising pressure to acquire indigenous nuclear capability amid growing geopolitical hostility. The fundamental issue stems from its northern neighbor’s nuclear growth.


Reports now suggest that Pyeongyang’s nuclear arsenal can reach the U.S. homeland and penetrate its missle defenses. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has further reinforced Kim’s belief that nuclear weapons are critical to North Korea’s national security, prompting his adoption of a first-use nuclear doctrine. These developments sparked concerns among South Korean policymakers that Biden will not risk a nuclear strike on American soil to defend Seoul. In the event of a North Korean nuclear or conventional attack on the South, they suggest that the U.S. may renege on its security commitments to avoid entrapment in a nuclear war, casting doubt on the reliability of the U.S. nuclear umbrella.


This places South Korean President Yoon in a rather precarious position. On the one hand, a domestic nuclear program can guarantee the second-strike capability needed to deter Kim and appease 71% of the populace that has come to support the nuclear path. On the other hand, as nuclearization will reduce Seoul’s reliance on American protection and empower it to order U.S. troops off its territory, it risks antagonizing Washington and undermining Yoon’s pro-U.S. policy.


This begs the question: How might the Yoon administration navigate these tricky waters?


Yoon’s state visit to the U.S. in April provides a telling clue. The trip culminated in the announcement of the Washington Declaration: a bilateral treaty in which both leaders agree to expand joint conventional military exercises and nuclear coordination via a Nuclear Consultative Group and—most notably—dispatch an American nuclear ballistic submarine to South Korea. This latter move is intended to signal the reliability of Washington’s extended nuclear deterrence. Yoon hailed the agreement as a significant upgrade to the U.S.-South Korea security alliance.


In reality, however, the benefits for Seoul are questionable. As the submarine will be under American operational control, it fails to address the core concern of U.S. reliability. South Korea will continue to view Washington as unlikely to initiate a retaliatory strike on Pyeongyang for Seoul, marking no substantive improvement from the deterrence provided by nuclear weapons based on the U.S. mainland.

 Nuclear intel sharing and strategic planning also offer limited deterrence without a credible threat of nuclear retaliation. In contrast, the declaration sees Yoon formally commit to maintaining his country’s non-nuclear status, enabling Biden to sustain American security influence in the Asia Pacific to counter a rising China. It further prevents a potential nuclear arms race between South Korea and China that will severely undermine U.S. security.


The declaration thus represents a shallow treaty with limited effects on the status quo. It provides a temporary fix for both Yoon and Biden to alleviate Seoul’s security concerns without resorting to indigenous nuclearization but does not produce the second-strike capability that South Korea ultimately needs to ensure its long-term security. The continued expansion of Pyeongyang’s nuclear arsenal will inevitably deteriorate the reliability of U.S. security commitments and reinvigorate calls for a South Korean nuclear program. As long as the Kim regime remains nuclear-armed and hostile, it seems that procuring nuclear weapons under the direct control of South Korean forces is the only option.


For now, the Washington Declaration can only be viewed as a win for Washington, and a loss for Seoul.

Credits: The White House, Wilson Center, Explainers, BBC, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, The Korea Times

thetaiwantimes.com · by Han Li Seon · June 13, 2023


14. HRNK Testimony to the Congressional-Executive Commission on China



The link to the HRNK written statement is here: https://hrnk.us18.list-manage.com/track/click?u=31e4000202f97251f48421c63&id=3a8e4c3694&e=46d109134b


Not everyone could testify but two of our HRNK Board of Directors testified and a third member also provided written testimony. 


HRNK Testimony to the

Congressional-Executive Commission on China

June 8, 2023

Link to Written Testimony

Dear Friends of HRNK,


Yesterday, June 13, 2023, the Congressional-Executive Commission on China (CECC) held a hearing on the subject of "North Korean Refugees and the Imminent Danger of Forced Repatriation from China."


You can find details about the hearing on the CECC's website at this link, and watch the YouTube recording of the hearing at this link.


Ambassador Robert King (former U.S. Special Envoy for N. Korean Human Rights Issues) and Ambassador Jung-Hoon Lee (former ROK Ambassador-at-Large for N. Korean Human Rights), both members of HRNK's Board of Directors, provided live testimony.


Suzanne Scholte, Co-Vice-Chair of HRNK's Board of Directors, also submitted written testimony in her capacity as the Chair of the North Korea Freedom Coalition.


HRNK was invited to submit written testimony for this hearing, with an emphasis on the situation of officially dispatched North Korean workers in China.


Our full testimony is available on the CECC's website at this link.


In our testimony, we compiled the latest available information from North Korean escapees and prominent activists in the North Korean human rights community. This information was gathered between June 2 and June 7, 2023.


One source noted in particular that "North Korea's Ministry of State Security officers are likely to impose harsher punishments than before [on repatriated refugees] and extort [them] more severely, as no refugees have been repatriated in the past 2 to 3 years due to COVID."


Based on our findings, we recommended that "both the U.S. government and U.S. civil society must urgently seek ways to reach out to the North Koreans trapped in China and educate them on the path to seeking asylum in the United States."


Furthermore, "in order to provide the resources necessary for North Korean refugee protection and rescue, the North Korean Human Rights Act, which expired in September 2022, must be reauthorized."


We would like to take this opportunity to thank the individuals who answered the questionnaire designed in support of our written testimony, including Ji Seong-ho, Jung Gwang-il, Kang Chol-hwan, Lee So-yeon, Lee Hyun-seung, Ko Young-hwan, Kim Ji-eun, Phillip Lee, Kim Sung-eun, and many others who chose to remain anonymous.


Moreover, we would like to acknowledge members of our team for their contributions to this effort, including Ingyu Choe, Raymond Ha, Rick Herssevoort, Doohyun Kim, Elizabeth J. Kim, Kaylee Kim, Daniel McDowall, and Isabella Packowski.


HRNK will endeavor to thoroughly investigate the human rights situation in North Korea, and to shed a light on the situation of North Korean refugees and overseas workers. We will continue to promptly share our findings and recommendations with key stakeholders, including the U.S. Congress, when invited to do so.


Thank you for your continued attention to these critical issues and steadfast support for our work.


With gratitude and warm regards,


Greg Scarlatoiu

Executive Director

 


15. Fewer N. Korean patrol boats monitor area near Sinuiju than before pandemic



Lots to unpack here. Corruption/bribery, possible (likely) lack of resources (fuel) to conduct patrolling at previous levels. Allowing Chinese to operate requires nK pteol boats reduce patrolling.



Fewer N. Korean patrol boats monitor area near Sinuiju than before pandemic

Multiple sources also reported that North Korea has been finding clever ways to sell fishing rights to China despite the border closure

By Choi Han-bin - 2023.06.14 4:00pm

dailynk.com

FILE PHOTO: North Korean smugglers taking goods across the Yalu River in August 2019. (Daily NK)

The number of North Korean patrol boats operating in the Yalu River near Sinuiju, North Pyongan Province, has fallen by half since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Daily NK has learned.

Prior to COVID-19, North Korean patrol boats made significant amounts of money from bribes gleaned from smugglers, but after smuggling operations largely ceased following the closure of the border, fewer patrol boats are in operation.

Speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons, a source in North Pyongan Province told Daily NK on Monday that North Korea currently operates just two patrol boats in the downstream section of the Yalu — a patrol boat with the coast guard’s 52nd Flotilla under the Navy’s 12th Flotilla operating in Cholsan County, and a patrol boat with a border patrol unit based in Sinuiju.

Up until 2019, five patrol boats operated in the area, but now that number has been cut by over half. Since COVID-19, the other three patrol boats have remained inactive, with locals calling them simply “stationary patrols.”

“Before COVID-19, the border patrol could cover 100% of the operating costs of the patrol boats by confiscating oil or taking bribes from people using small boats to smuggle, but since the closure of the border, they’ve reduced patrol boat operations because they can’t make as much in bribes as before,” the source said.

“Prior to COVID-19, small boats paying USD 3,000 a year in bribes could go to sea and smuggle. Navy personnel took that money and bought oil or parts for the patrol boats, or spent it on personal expenses.”

According to the source, the state should have been providing fuel and covering other operating expenses for the patrol boats, but the operators of the boats were left to fend for themselves, turning to bribes to stay afloat.

Following the closure of the border in January 2020, smuggling operations largely ceased, and border patrol units lost the financial lifeline they needed to cover their operating costs.

North Korea continues to sell West Sea fishing rights to China

Meanwhile, North Korean naval boats patrolling the West Sea are making money by illegally selling fishing rights to China, despite a 2017 UN Security Council resolution banning the country from doing just that.

Multiple sources confirmed to Daily NK that North Korea has been finding clever ways to sell fishing rights to China despite the border closure.

“Navy officials take bribes and sell fishing rights to China in return for watching the backs of Chinese fishermen as they fish in our seas,” one of the sources told Daily NK, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Our military personnel are essentially filling the stomachs of Chinese fishermen.”

Translated by David Black. Edited by Robert Lauler.

Daily NK works with a network of sources who live inside North Korea, China and elsewhere. Their identities remain anonymous due to security concerns. More information about Daily NK’s reporting partner network and information gathering activities can be found on our FAQ page here.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com



16. Professors at N. Korea’s top economics school dodge questions about socialist economy


The first rule of the Social Worker's Paradise is do not talk about the Socialist Worker's Paradise.


Professors at N. Korea’s top economics school dodge questions about socialist economy

“Even if professors think there’s a problem with the socialistic economic system, they can’t make such remarks in public spaces," a source told Daily NK

By Lee Chae Un - 2023.06.14 9:00am

dailynk.com

A group of North Korean students in Pyongyang. (fresh888, Flickr, Creative Commons)

Professors at Chong Jun Taek University of Economics have aroused controversy by avoiding students’ questions or forbidding students from asking questions at all, Daily NK has learned.

Located in Wonsan, Kangwon Province, the school is regarded as having North Korea’s top economics program.

Speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons, a Daily NK source in Kangwon Province reported on Monday that professors at the university had been facing a barrage of questions from students who are comparing what they are learning in their classes with the reality around them.

According to the source, students at Chong Jun Taek University of Economics were asking pointed questions while learning about the socialist planned economy and the capitalist market economy.

One problematic question was posed by a freshman in the economics department at Chong Jun Taek University of Economics in early May.

“Since the planned economy of socialism is a system in which everything is controlled and run by the state, the food supply can break down – something we’re seeing right now – when the state doesn’t distribute rations. But in the market-oriented economy of capitalism, individuals are paid according to the amount they work. Doesn’t the capitalist economic approach strike you as being more logical?”

That led to a severe reprimand from the professor, who said that “it’s wrong to even ask a question like that” and that the student had “studied in vain.” But the professor did not offer a decent response to the student’s question.

Other students in the class reportedly grumbled that the professor’s refusal to answer the question amounted to an acknowledgment that the market economy of capitalism was more logical.

“Young people can’t help but feel skeptical when they’re taught that the planned economy of North Korea is superior to the capitalist economic system. That’s because North Koreans are starving to death and they know from South Korean media that people are better off in capitalist countries,” the source explained.

“Since the professors are part of the same society, they have to dodge or shut down problematic questions from their students, since those questions could result in the professors themselves being prosecuted for thought crimes.

“Even if professors think there’s a problem with the socialistic economic system, they can’t make such remarks in public spaces. I can only imagine how frustrating it must be for professors not to be able to speak their minds to their students.”

Chong Jun Taek University of Economics was established as the Wonsan University of Economics in 1960, renamed Chong Jun Taek University of Economics in 1990, and given its current name in 1997.

Translated by David Carruth. Edited by Robert Lauler.

Daily NK works with a network of sources who live inside North Korea, China and elsewhere. Their identities remain anonymous due to security concerns. More information about Daily NK’s reporting partner network and information gathering activities can be found on our FAQ page here.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

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De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com


De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161


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