MainLine West - 2024 Annual Outlook

Rollercoasters and Ferris Wheels

Rollercoaster: a train that carries people fast through tight turns, steep slopes and designed to produce a quick thrilling experience and not a long sustainable ride. 

Ferris Wheel: a large wheel consisting of carts that carry people up and down in a rhythmic and predictable fashion designed to enjoy the view and more in line with the cycle of life.

 

The last three years have been a rollercoaster ride for munis. Fast moves in rates, sharp changes in curve slopes, all-time highs and lows in value versus taxables, and at times flat out chaos highlighted by unexpected turns and sudden drops. COVID reset monetary policy and parts of society. MainLine thinks the end of the topsy-turvy ride is slowly and finally upon us. Going forward, things may not return to the way they were, but things will get back more in pattern and allow investors to plan more for the long-term.  This doesn’t mean munis will forever make money and not have “issues”. It does mean it is time to settle into a long-term strategy and plan ahead for the ups and downs and lock in some good long-term tax-equivalent income.


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About The Author
Mike Maciolek, CFA, is a Senior Vice President at MainLine West and a member of the investment team for individually managed client accounts and our family of Tax Advantaged Opportunity Funds. Prior to his current role, he was a portfolio manager for First Data Corporation. Mike directed a set of municipal bond portfolios approaching $12 billion in market value, and $7 billion in interest rate derivatives, applying his expertise to meet the various objectives of the portfolios. He began his 24 year career in New York City as an analyst with management responsibilities for $2 billion in tax-exempt money market funds for Oppenheimer Funds.
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