January 18, 2024

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, this year’s theme was “Rebuilding Trust” - but in the coming months, actions will speak louder than words. This week, some of the world’s leading political and economic figures gathered in Switzerland not only to envision the future, but to discuss how to repair something that’s seemingly been lost. The theme acknowledges how in the wake of the Covid pandemic, and especially since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the foundation of the established post-WWII world order has been shaken. 

The impact of rampant disinformation and misinformation – already a source of distrust among and within societies- will also only be amplified with the increasing presence of AI. Indeed, cracks in the foundation of trust are due to political, social, and technological developments, but the result has been increased instability on the global scale.

Security in the Middle East is at the forefront of Washington’s concerns, and the US military is rightfully taking firmer and more frequent actions to thwart the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. The Hamas-Israel war has already reverberated throughout the region, and although Washington is actively working with leading Arab nations to help deescalate tensions, in the meantime the region is seeing more violence.

As if to show how much the Russian invasion of Ukraine diminished international norms for territorial sovereignty, this week, Turkey made air strikes in Iraq and Syria and Iran made air strikes in Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan- heightening simmering distrust between Iran and Pakistan. And in the Horn of Africa, conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia is ramping-up, and devastating violence continues unabated in places like Sudan.

While it may seem like conflict and instability in far-away places shouldn’t have a direct impact on American security and prosperity, the downstream effects of these conflicts will impact both. For example, armed conflicts in the Middle East and Africa will impact refugee flows to Europe and the United States. Global shipping, already strained by environmental issues in critical waterways like the Panama Canal, is being exasperated by issues in the Red Sea and access to the Suez Canal and Chinese action in the South China Sea. And conflicts in places like the Democratic Republic of Congo limit the ability of international companies to secure the vital minerals needed to advance technologies like electric cars and smartphones. 

Closer to our own neighborhood, many Latin American countries are grappling with domestic security and stability that will have a direct impact on America's southern border. Notably, Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa ran on a platform to take on organized crime, but as if often the case, the process of trying to stop criminals has been met with violent resistance by those who benefit most from the crimes. And in Argentina, President Milei is taking big risks to get the economy back on track, but internal protests are anticipated, and trade unions are already planning to strike.

What's more, instability and conflict increase the likelihood of more conflict. Most pressingly, we’re tracking how China might decide to act vis-à-vis Taiwan in the coming months. Taiwan just re-elected a member of the pro-independent Democratic Progressive Party, but it’s uncertain how much impact this will have on Beijing’s decision to take any type of military action. So far, Beijing has displayed less overt military aggression towards Taiwan post-election than ahead of the elections or when Nancy Pelosi visited in 2022. And Taiwan, with a divided Parliament that includes many Beijing-friendly electees, also isn’t trying to rock the boat.

But no doubt President Xi is watching how the United States and allies respond to the ongoing global instability -- especially in supporting Ukraine and Israel -- and if Washington can successfully deescalate the most pressing conflicts. Indeed, if the instability is viewed as a weakness or an opportunity will largely depend on how these conflicts play out. And in the process, trust will either be regained- or lost, impacting the calculus of global allies and adversaries alike.

The Arkin Group is a strategic intelligence firm offering investigative research, due diligence, international risk and crisis consulting, and security & preparedness services. We can be contacted at 212-333-0280.