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We saw a bit of a rollercoaster in prices today as we started green, and ended nearly all red. Corn closed 7 3/4 cents off the highs (1 1/2 cents off the lows), soybeans 10 1/2 cents off the highs (6 1/2 cents off the lows), and wheat closed 20 1/4 cents off the highs (3 1/4 cents off the lows).
This morning, private exporters reported sales of 126,700 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2023/2024 marketing year.
Export inspections data was finally released this afternoon after technical difficulties and showed as expected inspections. There were however substantial upward revisions to the prior week's numbers. In the latest week (thru Jan 11), some 55% of soybeans inspected were destined for China. Values are listed below.
NOPA Crush Data was released today and showed that crush for December totalled 195.3million bushels, 2.2 mbu ahead of the average trade estimate and up from 189.0 mbu last month, and 177.5 mbu last December. It is the all-time single-month high for any month, ahead of 189.8 mbu in October. Cumulative Sept-Dec crush stands at 740 mbu, already 40 mbu ahead of last year's pace with the USDA looking for a +88 mbu YoY total.
Soybean oil stocks landed 1360 million pounds, above the average trade estimate of 1291 mln lbs and above 1214 mln last month, though still behind 1791 mln lbs last year. Domestic bean oil use of 2140 mln lbs is easily a record figure for the month of December.
Soybean meal production resulted at 4.610 million short tons, well above last month and last year and easily a record figure for any month, ahead of the 4.43-4.46 mln ST record from a few previous months. Meal yield of 47.2 lbs is up from Nov but below LY.
Escalations in the Middle East continue, with reports of an Iranian missile strike killing a prominent Iraqi businessman and his family in the Northern Iraq city of Erbil last night. This was Iran's first direct strike supposedly linked to the war. U.S. military officials called the attack "reckless," risking an escalation in tensions in the country and the broader region as a whole. Elsewhere, the Iran-backed Houthis struck yet another ship in the Red Sea today, drawing another retaliatory strike from the U.S. military on missile launching targets in Yemen. The ongoing escalations in the Red Sea continue to drive up shipping costs and delays in sea transit, leading to the potential for more inflationary pressures creeping back in as we progress in 2024.
An analyst at Rosario Grains Exchange said the 2023/24 Argentine corn crop could top a record 60 MMT, up from the previous 52 MMT record in 2020/21 and above their current 59 MMT estimate.
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